irishpower
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Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 6:43 pm

I was wondering if you think LH will order more A380's? It looks like their initial batch of 10 planes is going to be delivered soon and do you think they will order more? When?
 
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SQ22
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Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:01 pm

Lufthansa had initially 15 on order and later they added two more frames (as far as I know).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...thansa-brief-idUSL3E7KT3G120110929
 
columba
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Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:31 pm

They will definitely order additional frames, they did that with every aircraft in their fleet. They usually buy aircraft in two tranches
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Asiaflyer
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 8:37 pm

With 17 A380 and 20 748 replacing 30 744 in Lufthansa's fleet, they have already covered the VLA fleet well. How many A346 routes can we expect to be upgraded to VLA size?
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irshava
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:31 am

Any chance of seeing the A380 on multiple services to JFK?

On a side note, word on the street is that the A380s have proven really popular with the carrier which is why they exercised rights for more planes.

Also - are there any plans to start phasing out the A343s/A346s? Although they aren't old.
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something
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:48 am

It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order. They have 20x 748 on order and hold another 20 options. Considering that LH appears to look at the 787 as their A340 replacement, these 57 frames (40x 748 + 17 A380) seem more than enough to replace 744s, some A346s and allow for further expansion. Maybe LH won't excersize all of the 20 options because either they, or their customers, aren't happy with the bird in which case I could see another 6-10 A388s in LH's fleet.

But as long this isn't the case, the 748 is a much safer bet. Less seats to fill, more cargo space and able to fly into any airport that can't currently accomodate the A388 (EZE, GRU, MEX, etc.)

Would be interesting to foresee though how the resale value of these both airframes will develop over the coming years. One would think they'll have to stick with the 748 until the scrapeyard does them part.
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:24 am

Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order.

It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I could see the A380 becoming what the 747-400 was for many years in LH's fleet while the 747-8i becomes what the A340-600 was/is.

Thirty A380s and a couple of dozen 748s? Looks good to me.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:41 am

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order.

It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I could see the A380 becoming what the 747-400 was for many years in LH's fleet while the 747-8i becomes what the A340-600 was/is.

Thirty A380s and a couple of dozen 748s? Looks good to me.

I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s. I could see them order another handful of A380s, but unless the 748 under-delivers, I just can't see a substantial follow up order - at least not within the next 5-6 years.

In fact, I think LH will have to shift their focus from FRA to BRU, ZRH, MUC and ideally even LIS (LH buying TP would be amazing) in the long run. Maybe they'll be forced to defuse their FRA hub even more, by growing DUS and even BER? Those are all reasons against (many) more A380s.
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:33 am

Why would LH ever shift flights from FRA? It's their primary hub and, with a new runway and in the next couple of years a new terminal, has enough capacity to accomodate any growth that they want. There is a reason why all A380s and (supposedly) all B748s are going to be based in FRA. I'm sorry for MUC, DUS, BER, BRU or whatever other place people have in mind but it's simply not going to happen.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:29 am

My estimate is LH has around 20 A380 end of 2019. So another order of 2-4 planes might happen. I do not expect any big order - giving the framework of LH-Airbus even single plane orders are possible if either required or a good possibility opens, since they get the same conditions if they purchase one or ten.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:31 am

Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

NS
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:34 am

I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.
I don't see a top up for the 388.

The 748 will basically be the replacement of the A346, especially if LH once a day would introduce something like economy +.

Their next focus however will be a 250 seater for the LH group Airlines to be sent from smaller hubs.

Boeing will bend over for a new business with them and I can see a combine order of A350-1000 and 787s (not sure which Size)

regards

flyglobal
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:42 am

Quoting something (Reply 7):

I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s. I could see them order another handful of A380s, but unless the 748 under-delivers, I just can't see a substantial follow up order - at least not within the next 5-6 years.

Yeah, I think the two-aircraft top up tells us quite a lot about the fleet size LH intends for the A380.

LH will order more, but not anytime soon.

Meanwhile, they seem to be able to sell their 380 tickets for higher prices (though not officially). I'm trying to book tickets to PEK, and it's consistently more expensive via FRA than via MUC, even though MUC has better timings.

Quoting something (Reply 7):

In fact, I think LH will have to shift their focus from FRA to BRU, ZRH, MUC and ideally even LIS (LH buying TP would be amazing) in the long run. Maybe they'll be forced to defuse their FRA hub even more, by growing DUS and even BER? Those are all reasons against (many) more A380s.

Like other posters, I expect more growth for FRA. The ban on night ops doesn't affect LH Passage that much, and with the new terminal etc., there is plenty of potential in old FRA yet. They have to work on their image though. In the last years, passenger opinions about FRA have been drifting dangerously close to CDG territory.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 10):
Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

  Is the 787-10 even offered yet?
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:53 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Meanwhile, they seem to be able to sell their 380 tickets for higher prices (though not officially). I'm trying to book tickets to PEK, and it's consistently more expensive via FRA than via MUC, even though MUC has better timings.

Do not think this is down to the A380...FRA always carries a premium above MUC on most routes. This is due to higher yielding O&D passengers and more and better connectivity in terms of routes than MUC. I do not doubt A380 can command higher prices but you need to see it the wider context. If you had B777 and A380 of LH let say departing within two hours of each other then you could compare prices...but from one hub to another it is really difficult to so many differing factors.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:48 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
and with the new terminal etc., there is plenty of potential in old FRA yet. They have to work on their image though.

The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Is the 787-10 even offered yet?

No, but LH is said to be the launch customer, there was a thread recently.
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na
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:09 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 3):
With 17 A380 and 20 748 replacing 30 744 in Lufthansa's fleet, they have already covered the VLA fleet well.

One should also not forget that when all 17 A380s and 20 748Is are delivered until about 2016 there will still be at least ten younger 744s in the fleet which will serve on until around 2020.
LHs 2008 VLA fleet comprised 30 744s, the 2018 VLA fleet will be 17 A380s, 20 748s and about 10 744s, so will offer almost twice as many seats! Small amendments like two or three more frames in a few years I can see, but its hard to imagine for me that LH will place a sizable A380 order in the next 5 years. The next scheduled VLA order from LH should be to replace the second batch of 744s, and if the 748I is a sucess I would imagine that converting some of the outstanding 20 options for 748s is the more likely choice. I doubt such order would be placed before 2015 though.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:20 pm

Lufthansa could have 30 A380's by 2025, Just think of fow many A380 will fly to China alone on a daily basis.
 
Rara
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:27 pm

Quoting WAC (Reply 13):

Do not think this is down to the A380...FRA always carries a premium above MUC on most routes. This is due to higher yielding O&D passengers and more and better connectivity in terms of routes than MUC. I do not doubt A380 can command higher prices but you need to see it the wider context. If you had B777 and A380 of LH let say departing within two hours of each other then you could compare prices...but from one hub to another it is really difficult to so many differing factors.

I checked a couple of other routes though, were the price was the same whether you transited via MUC or FRA.

Maybe it's just the the cheaper booking classes sell out quicker on the A380, and LH doesn't actually sell the tickets for more, on the whole.

It really buggers me a bit, because I want to fly the A380, yet I'm required to book the cheapest connection, as per my company. I'll probably end up going via MUC.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):

The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

Sure, but LH etc. will then have plenty of space to grow in T1 and T2. Especially with the new Z gates as well.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):

No, but LH is said to be the launch customer, there was a thread recently.

I know, I guess Gigneil was tongue-in-cheek with his remark.
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:40 pm

Quoting na (Reply 15):

Couldn't agree more.

There may be a number of destinations that could fill an A380 (ICN, PVG, HKG, BKK, DXB, IKA, CPT, GRU, EZE, CCS, MEX, ORD, IAD, BOS, LAX), but a.) not all of them can handle A380s, b.) many of them are seasonal in their nature and c.) many of them are low yielding. Hard to imagine that those few extra A380 seats could pay for the much higher price of the A388. The 748, I believe, also offers bigger cargo space and some destinations are better served on higher frequencies or from multiple hubs, both of which are reasons that weaken the A380s case. Then there's also the susceptibility of big aircraft to fluctuations in the market (economic downturn, floods in BKK, earthquake in Japan, maybe earthquake in Cali one day etc.). Smaller aircraft are just a lot more flexible.

LAX, GRU, HKG, PVG and maybe ICN are the only destinations that I think are high yielding enough to justify A380 service. The rest will go double daily, or in tandem with MUC, ZRH, BRU, VIE, LIS? service. Should be nicely doable with around 20 frames.

Quoting na (Reply 15):
The next scheduled VLA order from LH should be to replace the second batch of 744s, and if the 748I is a sucess I would imagine that converting some of the outstanding 20 options for 748s is the more likely choice.

  
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:49 pm

Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order. They have 20x 748 on order and hold another 20 options.

They also hold 15 A380 options.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I tend to agree with that, though the current refocus on strategy and profitability might delay any orders. And of course the world wide demand for their flights must be there.  .

Quoting something (Reply 7):
I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s.

Again, they also ordered 15 + 15 A380, out of which they already made 17 fixed + 15 options on A380's.  .

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.

They are most certainly a good candidate for such version of the A380.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I don't see a top up for the 388.

Depending on how the economy will evolve over the years, they might. But they also might not.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
LH will order more, but not anytime soon.


 .

Also, according to this link: http://www.airliners.de/wirtschaft/b...erhandelt-ueber-weitere-a380/25286 LH was negotiating with Airbus on the A380 options last September. Now I do not know if the circumstances have changed, but there is quite a real chance that they might take some of the options and will convert them into fixed orders.  .



[Edited 2012-04-02 07:54:42]
 
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Semaex
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:01 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 10):
Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

Well, you know, anet speculation..  
Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.
I don't see a top up for the 388

AFAIK LH like EK and CX have stated interest in the A380-900 if (when) it comes out. So I don't think it's a question whether or not LH will order more A380s in the future. It's a simple "when" equation.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):
The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

My connection inside the planning department for T3 says that still no final decision has been made whether T3 will be a transit- or O&D terminal and whether or not all non-Star airlines will go in.
In my humble opinion, there shouldn't even be a question about the use of T3... it's quite simple. I'm not an airport-planner though.
Concerning the rail connection: There will be a new S-Bahn line to Frankfurt for T3, maybe even RE-trains. For sure the PTS.

Quoting Rara (Reply 17):
Sure, but LH etc. will then have plenty of space to grow in T1 and T2. Especially with the new Z gates as well.

There's no place to grow in the T1-Z section, because these are just the non-Schengen gates on top of the old T1-A pier, renamed.
I think what you mean is the new "A-plus / A-west" concourse. You're right there, because even though they are just about to finish working on it, it has a lot of room for expansion in the future (given those ugly LH-parking deck and LH-base structures are finally removed)

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

Which makes me think: Of the 2 airplanes which LH topped up from 15 to 17, are those 2 frames part of the options or do we stand at "17 + 15" now?
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Someone83
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options
 
ka
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:21 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 21):
No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options

If you look into LH's financial report 2011, you will see that the additional 2 were converted options. Current remaining options stand at 3.

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something
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:33 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 21):
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options

That is true.

At this point, much of the A380s future in LH's fleet is depending on the 748s success. If the customer reception of the 748 is as good, if the plane is as reliable and as efficient as the A380, I just don't see more than 20-22 A380s in LH's fleet in the long run. If the 748 however proves to be a disaster, I could easily see those 20 748 options go to the A380. I just find that very unlikely, even though the 748 will most certainly never be the customer-magnet the A380 has been, is and will be.

LH can grow in various dimensions. I'm more surprised that BA's A380 order isn't somewhere around 40.
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PanHAM
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:00 pm

Quoting Semaex (Reply 20):
My connection inside the planning department for T3 says that still no final decision has been made whether T3 will be a transit- or O&D terminal and whether or not all non-Star airlines will go in.

They are still in the planning process, alright, but whatever the outcome is, it will be O&D as well as transit. Non Star airlines interline with LH and other star carriers, BA has transit pax to QF, many combinations possible

Quoting Semaex (Reply 20):
Concerning the rail connection: There will be a new S-Bahn line to Frankfurt for T3, maybe even RE-trains. For sure the PTS.

for that, the PTS is definately needed to connect pax between 1,2 and 3 easily. The system to separate pax that have not entered Schengen is in place.

If the rail extension is finished by the time T3 is completed in its first phase is doubtful.
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nycdave
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
They have to work on their image though. In the last years, passenger opinions about FRA have been drifting dangerously close to CDG territory.

If only we could combine the layout and facilities of FRA with the customer service and security personell of CDG, we'd have a solid contender for the worst large airport in the history of mankind!

Seriously, though, as long as FRA is one of the banking centers of the world, LH is going to try to maximize their hub operations there. MUC, DUS, and BER just provide extra capacity as hubs, and varying degrees of O&D business, all much less than the established FRA infrastructure provides.

That said, dear lord I wish they would just tear down all of T1 and build anew. The whole airport layout is a maze, and not a terribly pleasant one, either. Lack of bathrooms, odd-shaped spaces, weird locations for connecting passageways and trains, multiple security checkpoints in every which direction, and of course those godawful smoking pods... It'll be interesting to see, if LHR T2 goes well, whether it inspires Fraport to consider a whole-hog overhaul...
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:51 am

I think LH will buy a few more A380-800's, but they'll be primarily used on their busiest routes. The routes flown by the A340-600 will probably be eventually switched to the 747-8I, for example MUC-SFO.

However, I do expect LH to keep some of their A340-300 fleet for long and thin routes, for example my proposed BER-IAD route to serve government officials flying between Berlin and Washington, DC (LH will use the A343, UA will use the 777-200ER).
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:01 am

I would expect LH to follow their traditional buying habit with a 2nd batch in a few years.

Quoting something (Reply 5):
and able to fly into any airport that can't currently accomodate the A388

What airports could accommodate the 748I that couldn't fly the A388? I'm aware of some bilateral limits (e.g., India), but no physical limits other than possibly SEA. Airport after airport that was to cost a fortune to become A380 ready has done so for the cost of a double gate...

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
I could see the A380 becoming what the 747-400 was for many years in LH's fleet while the 747-8i becomes what the A340-600 was/is

I see that two. With limited runway growth in Europe, growth will be via gauge. Then again, if MUC gains the 3rd runway, it could be a long time until that hub is saturated...

Quoting something (Reply 7):
I could see them order another handful of A380s, but unless the 748 under-delivers, I just can't see a substantial follow up order - at least not within the next 5-6 years.

In that timeframe, I might agree. Longer term, I could see more A380s. It all depends on which program improves the fastest. The 748I has certain markets it is excellent for. But price for square meter of floor space is cheapest on the A380. So for high premium destinations, I could see more A380s.

Quoting something (Reply 7):
by growing DUS and even BER?
Quoting nycdave (Reply 25):
If only we could combine the layout and facilities of FRA with the customer service and security personell of CDG, we'd have a solid contender for the worst large airport in the history of mankind!

You forgot ATC by Greece.   
Now that the British have curry, who would do the catering to make it even worse?  


Lightsaber
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Asiaflyer
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:52 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 27):
If only we could combine the layout and facilities of FRA with the customer service and security personell of CDG, we'd have a solid contender for the worst large airport in the history of mankind!

You forgot ATC by Greece.
Now that the British have curry, who would do the catering to make it even worse?


Toss the custom and immigration at LAX into this, and we have a mix which will keep the most brave traveller away.   

Quoting something (Reply 23):
If the 748 however proves to be a disaster, I could easily see those 20 748 options go to the A380. I just find that very unlikely, even though the 748 will most certainly never be the customer-magnet the A380 has been, is and will be.


The 748i should not offer any negative surprises, but LHs future choice will also depend on projected traffic growth and competition.
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Burkhard
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:18 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 26):
However, I do expect LH to keep some of their A340-300 fleet for long and thin routes, for example my proposed BER-IAD route to serve government officials flying between Berlin and Washington

If a ticket BER-FRA-IAD is 5€ lower than BER-IAD, no government official will be allowed for the expensive flight. And govenment officials in Germany are mostly Y.

This said, BER-IAD can easily be done by an A333, no need to keep A343 for them. But if the rumors are true that the A343 will be replaced by B787-1000, they still have to fly 10-15 years...
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:21 am

Quoting nycdave (Reply 25):
godawful smoking pods

Those are in many airports and are not unique to FRA.
 
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:42 am

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 29):
If a ticket BER-FRA-IAD is 5€ lower than BER-IAD, no government official will be allowed for the expensive flight. And govenment officials in Germany are mostly Y.

True, but given that government officials may be carrying very sensitive information (whether on paper or electronically) between Washington, DC and Berlin, there may be a security risk involved on the transit through FRA. That's why LH would assign most likely the A340-300 on this route, in my opinion--by catering specifically to the government official market, it means German and US government officials can travel between the capitals of the two countries without any transit airport hassles.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:51 am

What risk is there in FRA that isn't in BER? And I don't think there is much, if any, sensitive information exchanged that is not known to the French, Britains, Israeli, Russians and Chinese at least - and to be read in Der Spiegel Online before an A340 has reached 20 000ft...
 
PanHAM
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:59 am

There's absolutely no need for a "government shuttle" between BER and IAD provided by LH.. They can fly commercially or use the regular Luftwaffe flights even when these still depart CGN. There are ample flights between BER and CGN.

LH has done that before and it was no success. This would be a spoke to *hub, so UA might as well do it.

BTW, there are still diplomatic couriers flying around the world, not everything goes electronic and embassies can even import beer and foodstuff for the Oktoberfest without customs sniffing at the boxes.
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Burkhard
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:47 pm

Yes, those who have really sensitve information will use Air Merkel. But isn't it cheaper to give the costum agents a can of beer instead of sending a diplomatic courier?
 
PanHAM
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:04 pm

Yoiu mis-understood that, beverages for Embassy fests go by air cargo and are released without any duty, or they are provided nby merchants like Heinemann direct to Embassies. A diplomatic courier handles mostly documents, and, never ever bribe a customs officer, especially not when he has no right to inspect the cargo.

bacK to the A380 - LH shpows clearly that their strategy is to serve hubs, spoke to spoke or spoke to another star hub is not an option. Even a smaller long distance jet with 200 to 250 seats needs feeder traffic
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Semaex
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:41 pm

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 28):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 27):
If only we could combine the layout and facilities of FRA with the customer service and security personell of CDG, we'd have a solid contender for the worst large airport in the history of mankind!

You forgot ATC by Greece.
Now that the British have curry, who would do the catering to make it even worse?


Toss the custom and immigration at LAX into this, and we have a mix which will keep the most brave traveller away.

Plus the approach of Toncontin and the humidity of Bangkok   

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 33):
There's absolutely no need for a "government shuttle" between BER and IAD provided by LH.. They can fly commercially or use the regular Luftwaffe flights even when these still depart CGN. There are ample flights between BER and CGN.

To be honest I also believe that the Germany-US government connection stated here is very overrated. I can much rather imagine direct BER-Asia flights, both on political and industrial grounds.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 35):
bacK to the A380 - LH shpows clearly that their strategy is to serve hubs, spoke to spoke or spoke to another star hub is not an option. Even a smaller long distance jet with 200 to 250 seats needs feeder traffic

LH could feed BER with flights from Scandinavia and Poland using their Star affiliates. It could make for a decent hub operation.


To me it seems like there is no alternative for LH than ordering A380s in the future as well, my bet being on the -900. Already now there are LH routes where the A388 is filled to the maximum. Adding frequency to such places works only if slots are available, and at certain times of the day they aren't ex FRA.
Plus, I believe sooner or later the A340-600 won't be enough of an airplane anymore for MUC. The airport is massively popular, and either the 748i or the A380 will be stationed there at some point in time. Those frames need to be taken from FRA, and ultimately replaced by an equivalent or bigger aircraft.
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Rara
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:07 pm

Quoting Semaex (Reply 20):

There's no place to grow in the T1-Z section, because these are just the non-Schengen gates on top of the old T1-A pier, renamed.
I think what you mean is the new "A-plus / A-west" concourse. You're right there, because even though they are just about to finish working on it, it has a lot of room for expansion in the future (given those ugly LH-parking deck and LH-base structures are finally removed)

Yes I was thinking about A-plus. Aren't they going to be called Z? The signage in FRA last time I went there suggested as much.

So A-plus gate will be labeled A / Z something, depending on the level?


Further complications of the gate numbering system will not go unappreciated in FRA.  
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:56 am

Quoting Semaex (Reply 36):
Plus, I believe sooner or later the A340-600 won't be enough of an airplane anymore for MUC. The airport is massively popular, and either the 748i or the A380 will be stationed there at some point in time. Those frames need to be taken from FRA, and ultimately replaced by an equivalent or bigger aircraft.

There I agree. It is logical to start with the 748I at FRA until 10 or 12 are available to keep them together, but then some will start to update from A346 in MUC which themselves will replace A343s which themselves will either be retired or used to open new routes.

Lufthansa I'm sure will order more A388, but this will be small add on orders, nothing spectacular.
 
steman
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:26 am

I expect LH to convert the last 3 options into firm orders for the A380, which probably benefit from the original discount price, that is, they wouldn´t be bought at current prices.
But nothing else. No more orders on top of the 20 final.
20 A380 plus 20 B748 are already an impressive VLA fleet.
The A380 suffers from some problems: not all airports are A380 capable; some Countries (India, China) do not allow A380 services or only allow few of them; the machine itself is going through a lenghty process of having its wing ribs modified, following to the discovery of cracks. This must not have impressed LH positively.

I also do not expect LH to increase its 748 fleet much over the 20 firm orders.
The group is under a lot of pressures, I just don´t see them expanding that much, not for the next few years.
The focus will be on the next gen twins, B787/A350/B777X to start replacing the huge A340 fleet (the biggest in the world if one combines LH´s A343 and A346 with LX´s A343).

As someone else said above, till 2008 LH had "only" 30 B747-400.
When they will have 17 A380s, 20 B747-8is and 10 refurbished B747-400s, this will already be a massive increase in VLA capacity.

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Stefano
 
something
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:56 am

Quoting steman (Reply 39):
the machine itself is going through a lenghty process of having its wing ribs modified, following to the discovery of cracks. This must not have impressed LH positively.

And the 747-800 will be delivered with a defunct tail fuel tank and now the plane can only be flown with a newly scripted computer program to compensate for the flutter.

The A380's dispatch reliability is north of 98%. That's quite a number the 748 will have to live up to first.
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
Cerecl
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:22 am

Quoting steman (Reply 39):
not all airports are A380 capable; some Countries (India, China) do not allow A380 services or only allow few of them; the machine itself is going through a lenghty process of having its wing ribs modified, following to the discovery of cracks. This must not have impressed LH positively.

By the time LH is in a position to order possible follow-ups, many of these problems will no longer be there.
Most of the airports that can sustain A380 operations are already compatible, those that are not, will be when the second wave of A380s of LH (if there is such a wave).
China's denial of LH landing right in PVG is likely to be temporary. This will be resolved once EU realises that no one appointed it the CO2 police of the world.
As to the cracks, 787 had problems too after EIS, did not stop LH wanting to be 787-10's launch airline. By the time LH's second wave A380s are ready to be discovered the crack should not be a problem.
 
steman
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:59 am

Lufthansa is not Emirates and most of all, FRA is not DXB. MUC even less so.
Already with the firm orders they´ll have a very big capacity.
More than they had till now.
Does anybody see LH aggressively expanding on intercontinental routes with multiple
daily A380 flights? I don´t.
What I expect to see is a constant but moderate growth year on year and only if LH can fix some
of its current problems and no major external factor intervenes (natural disasters, financial crisis, volcanoes, wars, etc etc)

Just this morning a High German Court confirmed the night ban in FRA.
LH Cargo might decide, as per their words, to get rid of all the dedicated freighters and use belly capacity
from passenger planes.
In this respect I would see a repeated order for the 747-8 rather than the A380
Apparently the first has more cargo volume than the latter.

Ciao
Stefano
 
na
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 11:19 am

Quoting something (Reply 40):
The A380's dispatch reliability is north of 98%. That's quite a number the 748 will have to live up to first.

The 748F has already reached 97% in the first 3 months, so I do not think that this will be a problem.

Quoting steman (Reply 42):
Just this morning a High German Court confirmed the night ban in FRA.
LH Cargo might decide, as per their words, to get rid of all the dedicated freighters and use belly capacity
from passenger planes.

LH Cargo will surely have to rethink their business model in earnest now. The cancellation of the the five 777Fs on order in within reach.

Quoting steman (Reply 39):

I expect LH to convert the last 3 options into firm orders for the A380, which probably benefit from the original discount price, that is, they wouldn´t be bought at current prices.
But nothing else. No more orders on top of the 20 final.

So you can seen into the 2020s? I said before that a sizable new A380 order from LH in the next 5 years or so is unlikely, but after that anything can happen. I´d say a 2017-2019 order of 10 - 15 A380s and/or 748Is to replace the last 744s and the first A346s around 2020 is something that I give more than 50% chance.
 
steman
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 11:39 am

Quoting na (Reply 43):
So you can seen into the 2020s? I said before that a sizable new A380 order from LH in the next 5 years or so is unlikely, but after that anything can happen. I´d say a 2017-2019 order of 10 - 15 A380s and/or 748Is to replace the last 744s and the first A346s around 2020 is something that I give more than 50% chance.

Well I guess we just have to wait and see.
I personally don´t like to make previsions over 5 years. So much can change in the time frame that, as you say, anything can happen.
My opinion is that, in the next 5 years, LH will order no new A380 but possibly just convert the 3 remaining options.
After 2017/2020, who knows?
Let´s meet up again in 5 years and we go on from there  
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:04 pm

I do think that LH will only assign the A380-800 on its most busy routes from FRA such as NRT, maybe HKG, JFK, LAX, SFO and a few others. As such, and especially with LH getting the 747-8I and now 24 A340-600 in service, we may not see more than 20 A388's in LH service. I can see a few years from now LH on the FRA-SFO route flying the A388 during the "high" season and 747-8I during the "low" season.
 
airbazar
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:40 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Lufthansa could have 30 A380's by 2025, Just think of fow many A380 will fly to China alone on a daily basis.

China has been less than willing to allow LH to fly their A380s there. It seems that every few months they come up with an "excuse du jour".

Quoting something (Reply 18):
LAX, GRU, HKG, PVG and maybe ICN are the only destinations that I think are high yielding enough to justify A380 service. The rest will go double daily, or in tandem with MUC, ZRH, BRU, VIE, LIS? service. Should be nicely doable with around 20 frames.

More frequencies are also associated with high yield routes, not low yield routes.
We're already seeing how LH plans to utilize their A380's and 748's to compensate for seasonality: Winter MIA gets A380 and SFO gets 747. Summer SFO gets A380 and MIA gets 747. So it's fair to expect some of those seasonal leisure markets to see A380 in the future.
Another issue is the cabin configuration. LH's A380s are very premium heavy but there's no guarantee that LH won't introduce a subfleet of higher density A380's some time in the future. That would open up additional A380 destinations. And over time I'm a firm believer that a lot more airports will be A380 ready, especially if the next generation 777 comes out wiht a wing span approaching 80m, which is currently one of the biggest if not the biggest limitation for most airports to handle the A380.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-to-increase-777+-wingspan-358411/
 
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Semaex
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RE: Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?

Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:06 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 37):
Yes I was thinking about A-plus. Aren't they going to be called Z? The signage in FRA last time I went there suggested as much.

So A-plus gate will be labeled A / Z something, depending on the level?

I'm unable to find anything on to the fast go other than this floorplan provided by Fraport
http://www.frankfurt-airport.de/cont...content.file/Terminalplaene1_2.pdf
The new "A-Plus" is not going to be named "Z".
Instead, they assign all the gate numbers which were previously something like "A43" up to "A60" (all Schengen gates on top of the unchanged "A1-A25") in "Z11-Z25".
Those new "A-Plus" gates will then be assigned the "A43 ->" names.
Fraport has given costumers and pilots some time to readjust to the name changes, so since a couple of months the "Z" gates are now in place, and the "A43" and further are not found anywhere, until the "A-Plus" opens.
Complicated explanation, I hope it helps you out a little  
Quoting steman (Reply 39):
The A380 suffers from some problems: not all airports are A380 capable; some Countries (India, China) do not allow A380 services or only allow few of them; the machine itself is going through a lenghty process of having its wing ribs modified, following to the discovery of cracks. This must not have impressed LH positively.

To be honest, I think those are all sentences you can end with a "yet".

Quoting steman (Reply 42):
Lufthansa is not Emirates and most of all, FRA is not DXB. MUC even less so.

True, FRA is not DXB. But I dare say that MUC is closer to DXB than FRA is, and a number of factors support my view, including:
- MUC is further from the main Metropolitan area it serves than FRA, meaning less hassle and conflict with the broad public living around the airport.
- MUC is, relatively speaking, a marvel compared to FRA, and people seem to appreciate the clean and simple environment which MUC offers - including small transit times and an open, see-through terminal structure.
- MUC is much more "premium" than FRA. That's a subjective feeling, I have no data to back this up.
- MUC is designed and primarily functions as a transit hub, similar to DXB. FRA however, based on the Rhein-Main Metropolitan area, has been designed in its early years (1960s) as an O&D airport and now tries to work its way being a transit airport.. which as we know results in the maze of the place it is now.

The only thing which, in my opinion, gives FRA an advantage to MUC is its Cargo ops. But now with the Leipzig ruling, we might have interesting years and decades ahead of us in german aviation
  
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