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evanbu
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WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 6:44 pm

With Southwest starting service to DSM, I started to wonder how much is going to be drawn from OMA & MCI, in particular OMA. For years, Iowans have been making the painstaking drive to OMA & MCI for better fares. With MCI being in a very populous city & state, I would like to focus more on OMA. I realize that WN is just starting out with 2X MDW flights, but everyone and their dog knows that that is just the beginning. What happens if this is the schedule for DSM in the future-

4X MDW
3X DEN
2X STL
2X PHX
1X LAS

All of a sudden you start seeing people who live closer to DSM than OMA actually fly out of DSM. And let's not forget, while Omaha is the larger CITY, Iowa is the larger STATE. If the fares end up being close to each other, I think this could significantly effect the number of pax out of DSM, and potentially put a small dent into the numbers at OMA. Only time will tell.

Opinions?
 
dbo861
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:11 pm

I think WN in DSM will have a greater impact on DSM than OMA and MCI. If we see the schedule you suggested, you can pretty much kiss F9 flying to DSM goodbye..maybe they'll shift their focus over to CID. US could cede PHX-DSM to WN..or maybe it'll go down to once daily. Expect no more G4 at least to LAS, maybe they'll drop out of DSM altogether. As for UA, WN would be hitting them on 2 of their biggest cities out of DSM. I doubt we'd see any more UA mainline at DSM, or maybe they'd shift their focus to IAH/EWR and we could see greater frequency/larger aircraft.
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:19 pm

Would it affect just MCI and OMA? Looking at a map, DSM is dead center with MCI, OMA, STL, MDW, MKE, and MSP encircling it.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
mli717fan
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:28 pm

I think this could also impact CID and MLI, if the fares are low enough it could bring people from Eastern Iowa to DSM. It'll also be interesting to see if this impacts the EAS airports (MCW, FOD, ALO).

Example fares (from Bing.com) 7/6/12-7/11/12: (I know that WN is not shown on Bing, but I'm just doing this to get a general idea)
OMA-SFO: $236 (United) (Based on how much lower than is than the rest, I'm guessing that's a fare sale)
MCI-SFO: $394 (Frontier)
DSM-SFO:$376 (Frontier)
CID-SFO:$433 (United)
MLI-SFO: $550 (Delta/United)

OMA-NYC: $429 (LGA-United)
MCI-NYC: $306 (LGA-Frontier)
DSM-NYC: $359 (LGA-AirTran)
CID-NYC: $422 (EWR-United/Delta)
MLI-NYC: $238 (United/Delta) (Must be a fare sale)

OMA-MCO: $213 (Delta)
MCI-MCO: $242 (Delta)
DSM-MCO: $299 (AirTran)
CID-MCO: $491 (United)
MLI-MCO: $350 (Delta)

Right now, DSM fares don't seem to be radically different than OMA, MCI. So while there will be passenger growth at DSM, I'm not sure how evident it will be at OMA, MCI.
 
splitterz
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:34 pm

I'd be interested to see if DSM could handle the passenger volume with that suggested schedule.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:38 pm

Quoting evanbu (Thread starter):
4X MDW
3X DEN
2X STL
2X PHX
1X LAS

I think your schedule proposal is a bit aggressive.

It it true that there might be a slight decline in traffic at OMA anmd MCI, but not enough to impact schedules there. Certainly not at MCI.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 2):
Would it affect just MCI and OMA? Looking at a map, DSM is dead center with MCI, OMA, STL, MDW, MKE, and MSP encircling it.

No one drives from DSM to STL, MKE or MDW for flights, it is simply too far. Also DSM is too small to have any noticable impact on MCI boardings, much less MSP.
 
joeljack
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:27 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 5):
I think your schedule proposal is a bit aggressive.

It it true that there might be a slight decline in traffic at OMA anmd MCI, but not enough to impact schedules there. Certainly not at MCI.

I would agree...very few people would ever fly from DSM-STL except maybe 10 business passengers per day. It's only a 4.5 hour drive (5 max if you go the speed limit), I do it at least once a year.

Plus, how many from DSM are driving to OMA for flights to Chicago or St Louis? None, only those connecting in those cities.

Your schedule for DSM is probably a little over done and I really don't think it will affect OMA, MCI or any other city's schedule.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:40 pm

it will be interesting to see what kind of schedule they institute at DSM. For now I'm sure they will gain back some leakage that went to OMA, Im sure they will probably draw in from FOD, MCW, maybe ALO and CID. Not so sure about MLI, its about the same distance to drive to the Chicago area from MLI as it is to DSM and ORD/MDW will have more choices as well, plus it would make no sense to drive to DSM for a connecting flight to MDW when the distance to drive there is about equal. Im also wondering how it will affect CID, Im going to guess not as much as it did when AirTran was at MLI, CID still had pretty healthy numbers, and is now gaining F9 on top of it. It actually might help CID if F9 draws down DSM to focus more on CID with adding daily flights to DEN and maybe throwing in an MCO run as well. Ive heard the F9 bookings are really strong at CID, we will probably gain back some pax here that leaked to MLI previously. That drive on I-80 to DSM is not one of my favorites, its choked full of traffic in the summertime.
 
planespotting
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:39 pm

Quoting evanbu (Thread starter):
4X MDW
3X DEN
2X STL
2X PHX
1X LAS
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 5):
I think your schedule proposal is a bit aggressive.

Agreed. This is more like a schedule for three-to-four years down the road at the least. Not really likely in the short term. And I don't think the marginal addition of Iowa pax shifting from OMA/MCI to DSM will have much effect on those airports, but it will definitely impact CID/MLI.

Quoting joeljack (Reply 6):
I would agree...very few people would ever fly from DSM-STL except maybe 10 business passengers per day.

I think that is true right now, but I think the number of people who would fly between the two cities is much higher given nonstop service. Remember, TWA was still flying mainline plus Express 6-8x between the two cities in 2000. Since then, obviously that traffic has diminished greatly with the dehubbing of STL, but I think the demand still exists.

However, with the prospect of flying out of the way to get to STL (via MSP or ORD) and the high fares, right now you're going to spend the same amount of time connecting through other cities as driving, and pay a lot more money for the flights. With a nonstop, relatively inexpensive short flight on WN, many many more people will opt to fly than drive.
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CIDFlyer
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Fri Apr 06, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting planespotting (Reply 8):

Agreed. This is more like a schedule for three-to-four years down the road at the least. Not really likely in the short term. And I don't think the marginal addition of Iowa pax shifting from OMA/MCI to DSM will have much effect on those airports, but it will definitely impact CID/MLI.

Im still not convinced how high of an impact it will have on CID/MLI. Im sure it will have some slight impact, but in the case of CID remember AirTran served MLI which is a much closer drive to people in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridor and although it did have an impact CID was still pushing through record pax numbers topping 1 million at one point. But as I mentioned before CID is gaining F9, and if F9 decides to give up the fight in DSM and focus more on CID it would probably help CID out better.Could also be the same for G4, they may pull out of DSM also and focus more on CID. As for MLI I'm not convinced it will have that great of an impact on them. Some portions of the metro area of the Quad Cities are actually closer to drive to Chicago, so if people are going to consider driving for cheaper fares they may just hop over to ChiTown where you have a broad array of flights.



Quoting planespotting (Reply 8):

I think that is true right now, but I think the number of people who would fly between the two cities is much higher given nonstop service. Remember, TWA was still flying mainline plus Express 6-8x between the two cities in 2000. Since then, obviously that traffic has diminished greatly with the dehubbing of STL, but I think the demand still exists.

However, with the prospect of flying out of the way to get to STL (via MSP or ORD) and the high fares, right now you're going to spend the same amount of time connecting through other cities as driving, and pay a lot more money for the flights. With a nonstop, relatively inexpensive short flight on WN, many many more people will opt to fly than drive.

STL historically was always a popular connecting point for people from DSM and CID. Even when the STL hub was downsized in 2003 DSM and CID still continued to have flights until the end of the AA hub. STL would be a good connecting point for connections to the south/Florida and Texas, and maybe cheaper fares would stimulate traffic. It would also be a good opportunity to route some traffic that would go through busy MDW and take some of the pressure off MDW.
 
joeljack
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 9):
STL historically was always a popular connecting point for people from DSM and CID. Even when the STL hub was downsized in 2003 DSM and CID still continued to have flights until the end of the AA hub. STL would be a good connecting point for connections to the south/Florida and Texas, and maybe cheaper fares would stimulate traffic. It would also be a good opportunity to route some traffic that would go through busy MDW and take some of the pressure off MDW.

Remember, southwest targets 40% O/D traffic with the rest connecting. If they are only getting 20-40 passengers per plane flying nonstop, they will drop the flight. Hence--TUL-MCI dropped. OKC-MCI...reduced.

Midland, Amarillo and Lubuck TX all drastically reduced...just very little O/D traffic.

This all said, the O/D on DSM-STL won't be very high at all so I wouldn't look for this route to be added. I would envision MDW, DEN, LAS and maybe 1x daily to PHX.
 
mli717fan
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
Not so sure about MLI, its about the same distance to drive to the Chicago area from MLI as it is to DSM and ORD/MDW will have more choices as well, plus it would make no sense to drive to DSM for a connecting flight to MDW when the distance to drive there is about equal

I think people from Iowa City (specifically) will be more likely to take the drive to DSM rather than MLI/CID if it's cheaper. The locals at MLI already are more than willing to fly from Chicago, which bothers me because if we just supported our own airport, we'd get lower fares and better service.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
That drive on I-80 to DSM is not one of my favorites, its choked full of traffic in the summertime.

Amen to that I used to commute weekly between the Quad Cities and Des Moines during the summer of 2006, I-80 is pretty much at it's limit.

Quoting evanbu (Thread starter):
4X MDW
3X DEN
2X STL
2X PHX
1X LAS

For what it's worth, I think that's a pretty heavy schedule for DSM. They are the capital of Iowa, but I don't think they can support that, espcially with US, F9, and G4 in town. Also, does anything think WN fly to MCO from DSM? They didn't support the FL service when they had it, and F9 is giving it a try, but I wouldn't be surprised if WN gave it a go.
 
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evanbu
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 11):
For what it's worth, I think that's a pretty heavy schedule for DSM. They are the capital of Iowa, but I don't think they can support that, espcially with US, F9, and G4 in town. Also, does anything think WN fly to MCO from DSM? They didn't support the FL service when they had it, and F9 is giving it a try, but I wouldn't be surprised if WN gave it a go.

Ok, so forget STL and then that is a pretty realistic future schedule.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Sat Apr 07, 2012 3:10 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 12):
Ok, so forget STL and then that is a pretty realistic future schedule.

I'd say more like:

3X MDW
2X DEN
1X PHX
1X LAS

7 daily flights.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Sun Apr 08, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting joeljack (Reply 10):

Remember, southwest targets 40% O/D traffic with the rest connecting. If they are only getting 20-40 passengers per plane flying nonstop, they will drop the flight. Hence--TUL-MCI dropped. OKC-MCI...reduced.

Midland, Amarillo and Lubuck TX all drastically reduced...just very little O/D traffic.

This all said, the O/D on DSM-STL won't be very high at all so I wouldn't look for this route to be added. I would envision MDW, DEN, LAS and maybe 1x daily to PHX.

Could O&D on DSM-STL be low now because of the fares? If fares were cheap could it increase O&D on a DSM-STL flight? I know driving from DSM - STL used to be pretty much all 2 lanes and a really bad drive, although now thats opened up a little with the Des Moines-Burlington Expressway connecting to the Avenue of the Saints so its all four lane now, but there still is really no direct shot to St Louis by car.

Also what is the chance that SWA somewhat protects OMA by making DSM a CRP-like station with flights only to MDW? (CRP only has flights to HOU).
 
mli717fan
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:41 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 12):

Ok, so forget STL and then that is a pretty realistic future schedule.

I think DSM will end up with at least 1x STL or BNA. CHS has BWI, MDW, BNA, and HOU. Maybe we will see a similar setup in DSM, except probably replacing BWI with DEN.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 14):

Also what is the chance that SWA somewhat protects OMA by making DSM a CRP-like station with flights only to MDW? (CRP only has flights to HOU)

I think they only keep CRP around because it was one of their initial stations. I wouldn't expect them to set up an ex-FL station like that.
 
planespotting
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Mon Apr 09, 2012 2:27 pm

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 15):
I think DSM will end up with at least 1x STL

I agree - I would be surprised if STL wasn't on the list of DSM destinations at some point within the next 12 months. As I said before - there isn't a lot of airline traffic O&D right now between the two cities because of:

- high fares
- same drive time vs. flight time w/connections

To steal a famous line from an Iowa movie, If you "build" a $250 or less nonstop roundtrip between DSM and STL on a very reputable airline, passengers will come ... both for O&D and connecting opportunities.
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2travel2know2
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RE: WN In DSM. Effect On OMA & MCI?

Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:38 pm

With WN in DSM, people from FSD will start driving to DSM for better fares too.
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