irishpower
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Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 1:33 pm

I'm curious if anyone thinks there will be any current 777 operators that will not order the 777X.

I'm not expecting all the current operators to order the next generation 777 and Airbus may take a few who decide to go with the A350 but who sticks out as a current customer that will not order the newer models?
 
Cerecl
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 1:58 pm

I think it is too early to speculate. We don't know enough about either 777X or A350-1000. We also do not know if Airbus plans to stretch A350 further.
 
jfk777
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 2:20 pm

Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
I'm not expecting all the current operators to order the next generation 777 and Airbus may take a few who decide to go with the A350 but who sticks out as a current customer that will not order the newer models?

Many airline will fly both, current 777 with A350 orders include AF, Cathay, Singapore, United, Emirates and Qatar, all should get the 777X.
 
qf002
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 2:38 pm

It all comes down to the A350-1000 IMO. If that frame is a strong replacement for the ULH ops that airlines currently use some of their 77W's for, then I can see many forgoing the 777X for a fleet of A350's.

I don't see airlines like CX and SQ choosing to order the 777X unless they need to because there's nothing else capable of flying the routes they need the stretched A350 for. It's just messy, and an unnecessary cost addition.

I do see a strong future for the 777X if it goes ahead though... Especially if integration with the 787 is tight (ie common cockpit, common mx systems etc).
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 2:50 pm

I’d hazard a guess that BA will go with an A350/787 combination, they had a bad experience as one of the original 772 customers and only ended up with the 77W because they were part of the 787 compensation deal.
 
phxa340
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:11 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 4):

I’d hazard a guess that BA will go with an A350/787 combination, they had a bad experience as one of the original 772 customers and only ended up with the 77W because they were part of the 787 compensation deal.

Wave that Airbus flag my friend. BA rather enjoys their 77Ws ... a lot, hence their top up order. How do you explain the fleet of 43 777s + 6 77Ws in their fleet if they had a bad experience.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:31 pm

Quoting PhxA340 (Reply 5):
Wave that Airbus flag my friend.

I wasn’t aware Airbus made the 787.

Quoting PhxA340 (Reply 5):
BA rather enjoys their 77Ws ... a lot, hence their top up order. How do you explain the fleet of 43 777s + 6 77Ws in their fleet if they had a bad experience.

Past/present experience’s with the 777 are only part of the reason I don’t think BA will order the 77X, the main one being it’ simply not going to be as efficient as the A3510.
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
I'm curious if anyone thinks there will be any current 777 operators that will not order the 777X

Let's look at AM. They have 4 77Es and 7 767ERs (some -200s and some -300s). They will replace the 767s with 788s on a one-to-one basis. The 77Es (277 seats in 2-class configuration I believe) will probably stay longer but when the time comes AM might feel they can replace them with 789s. I personally would love to see AM order 777-800Xs to replace the 77Es but as I said, they may go the 789 route instead.
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phxa340
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
I wasn’t aware Airbus made the 787.

Someone is in a sarcastic mood today.   I just don't understand your argument about BA's experience with their 777s - its the backbone of their fleet. Minus BA38 , which was clearly a unique situation, I would say they love their 777s.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
it’ simply not going to be as efficient as the A3510

And yet customers keep ordering the 77W by the hundreds with the A350-1000 suffering in sales. I do believe the A350-1000 will be a big success, but for a plane that hasn't been developed yet ... lets wait and see.
 
SASMD82
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:49 pm

Quoting PhxA340 (Reply 5):
Wave that Airbus flag my friend. BA rather enjoys their 77Ws ... a lot, hence their top up order. How do you explain the fleet of 43 777s + 6 77Ws in their fleet if they had a bad experience.

If the 787 was build by Airbus, Boeing would probably have had the same problems as McDonnell Douglas had in the 90s.

I do agree with you that the 77W is - by now - the most logical replacement for the ancient 744. I expect them to be part of their fleet for a long time and to fly aside of the B787s, A359 and A388.
 
CXB77L
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:29 pm

I don't see why we need to speculate so soon. We don't know who's going to order it until it becomes a reality. That said, I don't see EK not ordering it, given the way they've publicly praised the concept. The way I see it, every current 777 operator is a potential 777X customer. Even if they have ordered A350s, none of them have stated categorically that they will not buy the 777X. It is quite possible that the 777X will be flown alongside the 787 and A350 in the long haul fleets of the early 2020s.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
Past/present experience’s with the 777 are only part of the reason I don’t think BA will order the 77X

What experiences? The issues they had with the early GE90s aside (which are the sort of problems every new type early in its career will experience), what negative operational experiences have BA had with the 777, which has been reported about? And before you mention BA38, the final AAIB report held that the incident was specific to RR Trent 800 powered aircraft.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
the main one being it’ simply not going to be as efficient as the A3510.

On which routes? With what seating configurations? Granted that the 777-9X, being larger and heavier, will use more fuel per trip, but its 57-seat advantage, and possible payload and cargo capacity advantage also means it has the potential to earn more revenue and thus reduce its costs per seat / tonne.

Quote:

If launched under its current conceptual specifications, say those familiar with the details, the 777-9X would yield a 21% improvement in per-seat fuel burn and a 16% improvement a cash operating cost per-seat over today's 777-300ER.

Such jumps in efficiency are more usually reserved for clean sheet aircraft, and simply put, the long-range twin would be Boeing's most efficient jetliner ever developed, even exceeding the conceptual performance of its 787-9 and -10X.

Source: http://www.flightglobal.com/Features/Boeing-777-special/777X/

Yes, the A350 will be a fantastic aircraft, but the 777X will be every bit as good. In my view, part of the reason why the A35J has yet to take off in terms of orders is because customers are waiting for Boeing to reveal their offering, namely the 777-9X, before evaluating both types to see which one would best suit their needs.
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Stitch
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 10):
Yes, the A350 will be a fantastic aircraft, but the 777X will be every bit as good.

I'm starting to come around to the 777X being worth the investment.

In 2006, Airbus claimed that the A350-1000 would be 25% more fuel efficient per seat and 25% cheaper in cash operating costs. I was skeptical Airbus would hit those figures and now that the A350-1000 is heavier, I'm even more so.

So it's possible the 777-9 will match the A350-1000 on fuel burn per seat and be very close in cash operating costs.

And before someone says "yeah, only if they can fill it", the Airbus Aficionados always claim that the A380-800's greater seat count over the 747-8 is not a detriment, so neither should the 777-9's greater seat count be a detriment.


As for BA, their beef was with the GE90, not the 777. Hence their ordering shedloads of them with RR power. Fortunately, the GE90 has put all her teething problems behind her and the GE90-115B is a very reliable powerplant.

And as I can't see BA replacing their 747-400 fleet 1:1 with the A380-800, they're going to need a big twin. As they already have the 767, 777 and 787, why not add the 777X?

I'm inclined to not see the A350 in BA's fleet. They operate low-enough cabin densities that the 787-9 should work as a 777-200 replacement for them, negating the need for the A350-900.

[Edited 2012-04-15 09:41:40]
 
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zeke
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:45 pm

Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):

I'm curious if anyone thinks there will be any current 777 operators that will not order the 777X.


I would expect a number of current 777 operators will be out of business by the time the new aircraft, if ever formally launched and developed makes it into service.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
So it's possible the 777-9 will match the A350-1000 on fuel burn per seat and be very close in cash operating costs.

I doubt it will match the fuel burn per seat.I think zero chance of matching fuel burn, or the cash operating cost, or maintenance cost. Much like the A330-200 to 788, I would be surprised it it exceeded payload.
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:52 pm

Because the A and B offerings will co-evolve to have relatively similar specs, my guess is that most operators will choose one or the other. UA may not order the 77X because they have A350's on order. Analyses done by members on these boards (so it MUST be true!  ) suggest that the 77X will offer some advantage over the A350 on longer routes, at the expense of efficiency on shorter routes. However the same is true when the A320 is compared to the 737. In the end, the difference will be so small as to justify only one type for most carriers. A few large-bore carriers (SQ, EK) might find use for both.
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frigatebird
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
Many airline will fly both, current 777 with A350 orders include AF, Cathay, Singapore, United, Emirates and Qatar, all should get the 777X.

I agree that we will see a lot airplanes flying both A350 and 777X, but only those that will accept the 777X in 10 abreast Y. If not, the A350 will just be a lot more efficient on a per seat basis. Therefore, I'm counting out SQ and CX as potential 777X customers.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
So it's possible the 777-9 will match the A350-1000 on fuel burn per seat and be very close in cash operating costs.

It will need to, if not, there won't be a business case for the 777X.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
And as I can't see BA replacing their 747-400 fleet 1:1 with the A380-800, they're going to need a big twin. As they already have the 767, 777 and 787, why not add the 777X?
Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
I'm inclined to not see the A350 in BA's fleet. They operate low-enough cabin densities that the 787-9 should work as a 777-200 replacement for them, negating the need for the A350-900.

I forgot that BA hadn´t yet ordered the A350... I think BA will find the 777-9 a very attractive replacement for a large part of its 744 fleet, but Airbus will fight very hard to prevent that happening. BA should be in an excellent bargaining position.
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:08 pm

I'm sure IAG will order the A350, for IB. For BA, who knows? Their large current 777 fleet makes a replacement 777 attractive if the numbers add up, but it's all speculation. We don't even know who will power it yet...
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strfyr51
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:36 pm

The fate of the A350 will go as FAR as the reliability of the Trent 100 will take it. I would HOPE that Airbus asks PWA for a Large GTF for that airplane.. Boeing is tied to GE but being pragmatic a n airplane is ONLY as good as the engine that powers it and the L1011 failed with the lack of a strong engine. The Trent 1000 had better be the Hit right off the bat Or Rolls had better have spares Galore all over the place
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 10):
On which routes? With what seating configurations? Granted that the 777-9X, being larger and heavier, will use more fuel per trip, but its 57-seat advantage, and possible payload and cargo capacity advantage also means it has the potential to earn more revenue and thus reduce its costs per seat / tonne.

On every route.

How can the 77X have 57 more seats? The A350 in a three class layout will seat 350 passengers; EK’s 77W’s with 10-abreat seating currently have 354 seats. We know that Boeing can’t stretch the 77W much further so at most we can only expect an additional two rows, which if we assume 10-abreat economy this would equate to another 20 seats. Meaning the 77X is going to have between 25 and 30 more seats than the A350.

IMO this is not going to be anything near enough to offset the additional weight of the 777. At present there aren’t any official numbers for the A35J, but it is known that the A359 has a target OEW of around 116t, the current 77W has an OEW of 167.8t. Obviously the A35J is going to be heavier, but even taking this into account I can still see the 77X weighing as much as 40t more than the A35J.

It is also worth bearing in mind that these aircraft are likely to be using identical, or almost identical engines and with them both using the same generation of CFRP wings it is going to be weight which differentiates them.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:33 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 17):
How can the 77X have 57 more seats? The A350 in a three class layout will seat 350 passengers; EK’s 77W’s with 10-abreat seating currently have 354 seats. We know that Boeing can’t stretch the 77W much further so at most we can only expect an additional two rows, which if we assume 10-abreat economy this would equate to another 20 seats. Meaning the 77X is going to have between 25 and 30 more seats than the A350.

EK have stated the A350-1000 will seat 317 with their hard product so a 777-9 would seat 374 - a difference of 57 seats.


Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 17):
At present there aren’t any official numbers for the A35J, but it is known that the A359 has a target OEW of around 116t, the current 77W has an OEW of 167.8t. Obviously the A35J is going to be heavier, but even taking this into account I can still see the 77X weighing as much as 40t more than the A35J.

That 116t figure is believed to be without interior fittings.

The Ground Clearances chart in the A350-900 has an entry for when the plane weighs 135t. This figure does not relate to MTW, MRW, MTOW, MLW nor MZFW so I wonder if it is OEW with an Airbus OEM spec cabin?

Also, Airbus latest Payload-Range chart for the A350-1000 shows a payload of 65t. Subtract that from the MZFW of 220t would give an OEW of 156t - almost equal to the OEW of the 777-300 and 12t less than the 777-300ER.
 
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garpd
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 4):
I’d hazard a guess that BA will go with an A350/787 combination, they had a bad experience as one of the original 772 customers and only ended up with the 77W because they were part of the 787 compensation deal.

So how do you explain the second order for RR powered 777s? Compensation for a rainy day when BA went to visit Boeing?

I'm calling you on this one. Please provide direct and hard evidence that BA are disillusioned with the 777 to the point of not ordering them again. Then, provide proof that the 77Ws are only in the fleet as 787 delay compensation.

[Edited 2012-04-15 11:45:00]
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Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:45 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):

EK have stated the A350-1000 will seat 317 with their hard product so a 777-9 would seat 374 - a difference of 57 seats.

For those numbers to be correct EK must be using a 9 abreast layout for the A350 and 10 abreast in the 777. With carriers such as BA who have 9 abreast configuration in their 777’s the difference would be more in line with what I stated; 25-30. The A350 also is capable of going 10 abreast which would obviously also significantly reduce the difference.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
That 116t figure is believed to be without interior fittings.

The Ground Clearances chart in the A350-900 has an entry for when the plane weighs 135t. This figure does not relate to MTW, MRW, MTOW, MLW nor MZFW so I wonder if it is OEW with an Airbus OEM spec cabin?

Also, Airbus latest Payload-Range chart for the A350-1000 shows a payload of 65t. Subtract that from the MZFW of 220t would give an OEW of 156t - almost equal to the OEW of the 777-300 and 12t less than the 777-300ER.

I’ve spent a fair bit of time now trying to find accurate weight estimates, although I don’t dispute my initial estimate is going to be way too high, I also have serious doubts about it being as little as 12t too. I guess this really is something we will have to wait for more information on.

Quoting garpd (Reply 19):
I'm calling you on this one

And what exactly are you calling me out on? All I said was BA had a bad experience with their early 777’s. They did. If you want evidence of that, then I suggest google.
 
Btblue
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:08 pm

I would hazard BA if it came with RR engines...

Saying that, I could see an order for A350's offering the ability of dual rating with the A380... so grouping that fleet as L/VLA Just a guess.
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:14 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):

For those numbers to be correct EK must be using a 9 abreast layout for the A350 and 10 abreast in the 777.

What makes you think that they won't? They already go 10X in their 777's and the 777X is supposed to provide even more cabin width.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
With carriers such as BA who have 9 abreast configuration in their 777’s the difference would be more in line with what I stated; 25-30.

But the number of carriers who operate the 777 in 9X config continues to get smaller, and as I already stated, with the 777X cabin expanding, what makes you think that this trend won't continue. Fuel prices aren't going to get any better, so it makes economic sense for airlines to cram seats in, as passengers have shown time and again that their purchasing decisions are based on ticket price far more than on Y comfort.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
The A350 also is capable of going 10 abreast which would obviously also significantly reduce the difference.

For 99% of airlines, this is utterly false. I know it fits your argument, but you can't in good faith claim that we're going to see A350's in 10X, save for the very few that might do it for charter flights. What would the seat width be...it'd have to be less than 16.5".

[Edited 2012-04-15 13:16:03]
 
TeamintheSky
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:17 pm

I am absolutely no DL expert, but I could see their VLA strategy in the future not including any 777X. I believe they will (hopefully) go with the 748i's on the very large side and the 787 family (mostly replacing their huge 767 fleet).
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:32 pm

Quoting TeamInTheSky (Reply 23):


I am absolutely no DL expert, but I could see their VLA strategy in the future not including any 777X. I believe they will (hopefully) go with the 748i's on the very large side and the 787 family (mostly replacing their huge 767 fleet).

It will be interesting to see what they do with their 747 replacement. It is a remarkably small fleet for such a vast airline (10 planes out of 700ish?) that you would be inclined to believe they can do without it and order 777 or A350 in future, especially because the schedule currently flown by the 747 is also relatively roomy (last time I checked).

The A350 will be closer to the 777 than any Airbus plane before. The A340-600 still had four engines which put them at a disadvantage when ETOPS occurred. I think much will depend on the specs of the two, which in the details is still relatively alone. If they are further apart than we think, this question will have a different answer than when they are very close.
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:47 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
Past/present experience’s with the 777 are only part of the reason I don’t think BA will order the 77X, the main one being it’ simply not going to be as efficient as the A3510.

Are projected performance numbers out yet?
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garpd
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:06 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
And what exactly are you calling me out on? All I said was BA had a bad experience with their early 777’s. They did. If you want evidence of that, then I suggest google.

No, you suggested BA would not buy any more 777s due to their bad experience with the early A models.
You then stated (not suggested) that the 77Ws are only in the fleet as compensation for the 787 delays.
I'm calling on you to provide evidence as to why you believe this.

The facts are:
1. BA ordered a second batch of 777s after their first batch.
2. BA ordered the 77W. They were not gifted them.

So, firstly; Why would BA order a second batch of 777s when their first experience was so terrible it would put them off ordering? Are you perhaps just blowing it out of proportion to serve an ulterior purpose?

Secondly, BA decided to order those 77Ws. I'm not saying they didn't receive a healthy discount, but BA decided to order 77Ws. They were not gifted them, they certainly weren't forced to take them and were not told "It's them or nothing at all". Again, are you perhaps just blowing it out of proportion to serve an ulterior purpose?

More than likely, you cannot see past your obvious bias against Boeing which you have demonstrated on many threads to date and it's clouding your judgement.
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Asiaflyer
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:07 pm

Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
I'm curious if anyone thinks there will be any current 777 operators that will not order the 777X.

Some current 772 operators who does not seem to have a need for larger planes can be on that list. I'm thinking of Royal Brunei, Alitalia, Austrian etc...
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):

I'm curious if anyone thinks there will be any current 777 operators that will not order the 777X.

I think that a lot won't. It would probably be easier to list the ones that would order it.

You can chalk up Emirates for a bunch and probably a couple other Middle Eastern carriers too.

American could conceivably want a few to go with some fairly new 77Ws, if they get their shit together and need a bit more capacity.

Cathay would want a 777X as long as they don't mind fitting ten seats across and especially if they don't jump on ordering a VLA.

Turkish might want some if they don't buy larger planes beforehand.

Air France could find some useful, but I doubt the 777X will be that popular in Europe.
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Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:58 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 26):
No, you suggested BA would not buy any more 777s due to their bad experience with the early A models.
You then stated (not suggested) that the 77Ws are only in the fleet as compensation for the 787 delays

I stated that BA had a bad experience as one of the initial customers of the 772, which they did, so it is a fact. I also stated that the 77W's were part of a compansation deal for the 787's - They were, it is also a fact.

What conclusions you infer from these facts has nothing to do with me.

Quoting garpd (Reply 26):

More than likely, you cannot see past your obvious bias against Boeing which you have demonstrated on many threads to date and it's clouding your judgement.

Really? If only I could be as unbiased and fair as you.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 10:16 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
I’ve spent a fair bit of time now trying to find accurate weight estimates, although I don’t dispute my initial estimate is going to be way too high, I also have serious doubts about it being as little as 12t too. I guess this really is something we will have to wait for more information on.

For one carrier, simulations with the same seating product in the same seating configuration were said to have shown the A350-1000 was 8 tons lighter than the 777-300ER. That being said, the fuel burn advantage on long-haul missions was projected at 20%, so empty weight is not where the A350-1000 is making the biggest performance gains.
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 10:18 pm

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 27):

Some current 772 operators who does not seem to have a need for larger planes can be on that list. I'm thinking of Royal Brunei, Alitalia, Austrian etc...

Thanks for bringing some reality back to the thread. I think those three in particular are very unlikely to order the 777X as I see them as being airlines that if they continue to provide long haul service, it would be better with smaller widebodies like the 787 or A350.

I would also add Jet Airways, Kuwait Airways, and Aeromexico. I don't think those airlines would go for larger 777s.

One final airline I see as very unlikely to go for the 777X is Asiana as they seem rather set on going all Airbus with the all variants of the A350 on order in addition to A380s.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 29):

What conclusions you infer from these facts has nothing to do with me.

I think the conclusion you made of BA unlikely to order the 777X because of initial teething issues (BA was the second 777 customer to have the plane enter service) and 787 delays is what he disagrees with. You seem to think they will order a 787/A350 combination, yet BA currently has on order 787s, 77Ws and A380s. The fact they currently have 77Ws on order and an existing large fleet in addition to not ordering the A350 makes them an extremely likely candidate to order the 777X. BA has 50 747s yet only 12 A380 orders. I think it is pretty clear that another widebody order is likely.
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 11:27 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 31):
I would also add Jet Airways

I don't know about this, I think that they might order a few, but how many, I have no idea.

I do agree that there are a lot of other carriers that probably won't. Such as UA, AC, and TAM.
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Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 11:32 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
For one carrier, simulations with the same seating product in the same seating configuration were said to have shown the A350-1000 was 8 tons lighter than the 777-300ER. That being said, the fuel burn advantage on long-haul missions was projected at 20%, so empty weight is not where the A350-1000 is making the biggest performance gains.

I think this just further exemplifies the lack of accurate information. I’ve seen it repeatedly posted that the 77W is over engineered and some have estimated that Boeing would be able to remove as much as 10t from the structure and yet your estimating that it is only going to be 8t heavier than a brand new jet primarily constructed from CFRP? – It just doesn’t make sense.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
The Ground Clearances chart in the A350-900 has an entry for when the plane weighs 135t. This figure does not relate to MTW, MRW, MTOW, MLW nor MZFW so I wonder if it is OEW with an Airbus OEM spec cabin?

The same goes with these estimates. Using the 789 as a comparison, it has an OEW of 115t – yes the A359 is 4m longer, and its slightly wider but do you seriously think this is going to account for an extra 20t?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Also, Airbus latest Payload-Range chart for the A350-1000 shows a payload of 65t. Subtract that from the MZFW of 220t would give an OEW of 156t

And again, if we assume this figure is correct and the A359 has an OEW of 135t as you mentioned above then it means the 7m stretch weights another 20 tonnes!

As I’ve already said, I think we need more information.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 31):
The fact they currently have 77Ws on order and an existing large fleet in addition to not ordering the A350 makes them an extremely likely candidate to order the 777X. BA has 50 747s yet only 12 A380 orders. I think it is pretty clear that another widebody order is likely.

I’m just really sceptical that we will see the 77X in BA’s fleet as I believe they will order a combination of A359s and A35J’s to replace the 777s and some of the 744’s. The 787’s I’d expect to replace the 767’s and I’d also expect a follow up order for more A380s to replace the remaining 744’s.
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Sun Apr 15, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):

I’m just really sceptical that we will see the 77X in BA’s fleet as I believe they will order a combination of A359s and A35J’s to replace the 777s and some of the 744’s. The 787’s I’d expect to replace the 767’s and I’d also expect a follow up order for more A380s to replace the remaining 744’s.

I understand you are a strong supporter of the A350, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in that plane? Also, I think the facts that initial 777 entry into service had some teething issues and the 787 is late aren't reasons pointing towards an A350 order. The fact that they have a large 777 fleet implies that they would consider the 777X as a 747 replacement on the lower end.

I would expect BA to be a very competitive sales campaign between the A350 and 777X.
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Stitch
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
I think this just further exemplifies the lack of accurate information.

Personally, I'd put the most faith in an airline's analysis because you minimize the variables: common seating, common mission rules, etc.

And the 787-8's OEM OEW of 112t is only 5t less than the A330-200's OEM OEW of 117t, so clearly CFRP is not quite the wonder weight reducer the marketing people claim.  
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
And again, if we assume this figure is correct and the A359 has an OEW of 135t as you mentioned above then it means the 7m stretch weights another 20 tonnes!

The 787-9 is mostly a direct stretch of the 787-8 with minor strengthening to support higher TOWs.

The A350-1000 is a good deal more than just a direct stretch of the A350-900 with a higher MTOW.

And heck, the 777-300A was 20t heavier in OEW than the 777-200A.
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:26 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 34):
I understand you are a strong supporter of the A350, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in that plane? Also, I think the facts that initial 777 entry into service had some teething issues and the 787 is late aren't reasons pointing towards an A350 order. The fact that they have a large 777 fleet implies that they would consider the 777X as a 747 replacement on the lower end.

I understand that you’re a strong Boeing supporter, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in the 77X? Also I think the fact that they already operate the 777 isn’t a reason to assume they will order the latest version. As it wasn’t too long ago they completely rejected the 748i despite operating the worlds largest fleet of 744’s.

Basically, there is no evidence one way or another – it’s anyone’s guess. Mine just happens to be that they will go with the 787/A350/A380 combo platter.

Edit

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
Personally, I'd put the most faith in an airline's analysis because you minimize the variables: common seating, common mission rules, etc.

I think there are enough holes in both of our theory’s to conclude we can't put our faith in anything for the time being.  Smile

[Edited 2012-04-15 17:47:22]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:54 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 36):
I think there are enough holes in both of our theory’s to conclude we can't put our faith in anything for the time being.   

True. This airline operates the 777-300ER so they know that OEW data whereas with the A350-1000 they are relying in part on Airbus-supplied data and that is speculative in nature due to the plane not being in final design freeze, much less actually built and weighable.  
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:40 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 29):
I stated that BA had a bad experience as one of the initial customers of the 772

Sure, but to connect that as a reason for them not to sign on for a hypothetical 777X when they already have dozens of 777's in their fleet would seem like a stretch as a reason.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them go 787/350/380, but that isn't because of some engine issues back in the 90's.

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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:11 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 14):
It will need to, if not, there won't be a business case for the 777X.

Not necessarily. If they can make more revenue than they lose in fuel burn per seat, it is still a very attractive proposition.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 17):
On every route.

The current 777-300ER has a payload advantage over the A350-1000 up to 7000nm. The 777-9X will, at the very least, maintain that advantage, if not increase it. The current estimates for the 777-9X shows that it is a distinct possibility that the 777-9X will be able to match the A350-1000 in operating costs per seat.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
The A350 also is capable of going 10 abreast which would obviously also significantly reduce the difference.

Fewer airlines will chose a 10-abreast configuration on the A350 given that it is narrower than the current 777, let alone the 777X.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 20):
I also have serious doubts about it being as little as 12t

Doubt it all you want. Those figures that Stitch quoted correspond with the latest payload range chart for the A350-1000 (which has been posted on this forum several times before), and Airbus' own figures for its MZFW. To say that the 12t OEW advantage is wrong, then one of Airbus' MZFW figures or maximum payload is incorrect.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 29):
I stated that BA had a bad experience as one of the initial customers of the 772, which they did, so it is a fact. I also stated that the 77W's were part of a compansation deal for the 787's - They were, it is also a fact.

That does not negate garpd's points that they, nonetheless, ordered more 772s after the "bad experience", and that they chose to order the 77Ws, even if they didn't pay full price for them. The sort of "bad experience" they had with their initial 772s aren't any different from what other early operators of new types experience, and to bring this up, 17 years after the fact, and when 777s these days are one of the most reliable aircraft flying - is just plain silly. Using that logic, is it then fair to say that QF (especially), EK and SQ aren't going to order more A380s because of their "bad experience"?
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Daysleeper
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:41 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 39):
Doubt it all you want. Those figures that Stitch quoted correspond with the latest payload range chart for the A350-1000 (which has been posted on this forum several times before), and Airbus' own figures for its MZFW. To say that the 12t OEW advantage is wrong, then one of Airbus' MZFW figures or maximum payload is incorrect.

Given that there are no official figures for either aircraft then anyone who didn't doubt the figures would be an idiot.

The only "semi-official" number known is for the A359 which states it's OEW is going to be around 115t.


In regards to BA, as I said further up the thread there is no evidence for or against the order which leaves it open to speculation. I stand by my view that BA will not order the 77X on the basis that the A350 is going to be a better aircraft.  
 
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:27 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 40):
I stand by my view that BA will not order the 77X on the basis that the A350 is going to be a better aircraft.

While I really have no opinion on which is going to be a better aircraft, I don't think that it would make sense for BA to purchase the 787, A350 and the A380. It makes no sense when they've already ordered the 787 which has the same type rating as the 777, and they already have pilots trained from the 772/77W.
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phxa340
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:13 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 6):
I wasn’t aware Airbus made the 787.

You know what I meant , no need for the sarcasm sir ... You make it seem like Boeing gave the 77Ws for free to them and they hate their 777 which is simply not true.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 29):
I stated that BA had a bad experience as one of the initial customers of the 772, which they did, so it is a fact. I also stated that the 77W's were part of a compansation deal for the 787's - They were, it is also a fact.

Ok , but the fleet of 43 777-200ERs ... they hated the 772 so much they ordered 43 of the ER model ?? I agree with you that the 77W was heavily discounted for 787 delays ... but to imply that they won't order the 77X because they disliked a plane they ordered 43 of isn't logical. Now if the A350 kicks serious tail ... they would order it because it kicks serious tail NOT because of 'bad' experience with the 777-200A models.
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 5:49 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 36):
I understand that you’re a strong Boeing supporter, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in the 77X?


There can't be much evidence for anything regarding 777X at this early stage, but how can an airline of BA's caliber not be interested in having a serious look at it like all other major airlines in the world will?
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:28 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 40):
I stand by my view that BA will not order the 77X on the basis that the A350 is going to be a better aircraft.

Ok, so that's your view. I thought it was this:

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 4):
I’d hazard a guess that BA will go with an A350/787 combination, they had a bad experience as one of the original 772 customers and only ended up with the 77W because they were part of the 787 compensation deal.

Well, you may very well be right.

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frigatebird
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:04 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 34):
I understand you are a strong supporter of the A350, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in that plane
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 36):
I understand that you’re a strong Boeing supporter, but do you have any evidence that BA is actually interested in the 77X?

BA has stated that their next widebody order (to replace their second batch of 744's and probably their oldest 777's) will either be for A350XWB, 787-10 or 777X. I don't have I direct link other than this article where John Leahy talks about the prospects of more A380s for BA http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...rate-up-to-30-a380s-airbus-221397/ But I remember it well because it resulted in heavy debates about the 747-8i being excluded.

Interesting to hear what the timing will be for BA's next order. Widebody orders are slow, I guess the current financial situation in the world has a lot to do with it. But it may also very well be that BA is waiting for Boeing to formally launch the 787-10 and 777X. Anyway, it doesn't look like either the A350, 787-10 or 777X won't be available before 2018/2019. Gonna be interesting...
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:29 am

Assuming that most of the airlines that currently have a large 777 fleet (30 + frames) will order the 777X, what about the airlines that have a 10-30 frame fleet?

Air Canada
Air China
Air India
Air New Zealand
Alitalia
Asiana
China Southern
Egyptian
EVA
KLM
Korean
Malaysian
Qatar
Thai
Turkish
Vietnam
 
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EPA001
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:59 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 10):
I don't see why we need to speculate so soon. We don't know who's going to order it until it becomes a reality.

Totally agree. This thread is way too soon. Maybe in 5 years time when the A35J will enter service, and the B777-X variants are not far off anymore it makes more sense to discuss this question.

Quoting zeke (Reply 12):
I would expect a number of current 777 operators will be out of business by the time the new aircraft, if ever formally launched and developed makes it into service.

That could be true if the economic turmoil keeps going on globally. But on the other hand also some new operators might emerge of which we do not think of today.  .
 
flyingcello
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:14 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 45):
But it may also very well be that BA is waiting for Boeing to formally launch the 787-10 and 777X.

Think frigatebird is the first to mention the 787-10...and I think he has hit the nail on the head.

This is not a straight fight between the 777X and the A350...it's a fight between the 787/777X and the A350.

If BA can find a place for the 787-10, then with 788s, 789s and current generation 777s already in place, the 777X is the only game town. If however, the 787-10 doesn't have a place, then the A359/A350-1000 can be the second family, sitting above the 787 and replacing the 777.

With respect to early 777s and BA, while they had some problems, it clearly hasn't been an issue in terms of the fleet! BA love the 777...and the 77W only seems to have enhanced the reputation.

Separate note: if Lufthansa prove you can utilise a 748i between an A346 and an A380, why would BA (with a similar route network) not be able to use 77W / 748i / A380 also?
 
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propellix
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RE: Any Current 777 Operators Who Won't Order 777X

Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:45 am

Smaller operators like Austrian Airlines might not be interested at all, especially at it remains to be seen, whether they´ll continue long-haul at all.

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