DTWPurserBoy
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Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:16 pm

Just curious to see what a.netters thought about replacements for Delta's 767 fleet. The -400's have all been redone so I think they will around for a long while but some of the 767ER's are not scheduled for the upgrades. Some of them have some years on them, too.

I was wondering about the A350-1000 or the 787-9 as possible replacements. DL rescheduled delivery of the 787's to 2020 to get, what IMHO, would be a "mature" airplane. The -8 just does not meet their needs for capacity. Being a launch customer for a new airliner is a touchy area--the first ones off the line are never great airplanes.

DL is notoriously careful with capital expenditures, too. They would probably have some long term planning going on for the cost of replacements already. They use an abundance of caution and careful thinking before buying a new aircraft.

So........whatcha think?
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
but some of the 767ER's are not scheduled for the upgrades.

I thought the entire widebody fleet was scheduled for upgrades?




Having said that, I would think it would be the 787-9. Considering the teething problems that the -8 has had, I always thought that DL would defer the deliveries until later and make them -9s. We will see.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:32 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 1):
Having said that, I would think it would be the 787-9. Considering the teething problems that the -8 has had, I always thought that DL would defer the deliveries until later and make them -9s. We will see.

Sometimes, I think, it just comes down to dollars. I would assume that DL plays Boeing against Airbus in all purchases to get the best deal possible. Plus, as a good customer of both companies, they get very preferred pricing and generous options.

I need to study up more on the A350 series, too.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 2):
I need to study up more on the A350 series, too.

This is my own observation, but, by the time DL is ready to order a replacement for the 767, the 787 will be a pretty mature airframe, whereas, the A350 might still be in its teething stage. That, alone, could swing the decision towards Boeing.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
Just curious to see what a.netters thought about replacements for Delta's 767 fleet.

They have the 787-8 orders from NW.


Quoting mayor (Reply 1):
Considering the teething problems that the -8 has had, I always thought that DL would defer the deliveries until later and make them -9s.

By the time the 787-9 enters production, the 787-8 will be at spec. That being said, the 787-9 will make a great 777-200ER and A330-300 replacement for DL.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:39 pm

Mix of 787's, A350's, 777's and maybe some A330's? As they seem quite happy with them.

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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:07 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 2):
Plus, as a good customer of both companies, they get very preferred pricing and generous options.

Just because DL bought out NW doesn't automatically make DL a loyal Airbus customer. When the time comes to replace the 767 fleet, expect Delta to order some 787-9s.

I remember when everyone was expecting DL to choose the A321 over the 739ER. Look how that turned out.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
They have the 787-8 orders from NW.

They pushed them back to 2020, IIRC. I remember an interview where Anderson said that he would not be ordering a lot of new aircraft, but rather upgrading and optimizing the ones he has. Their bean counters must have decided that the lower cost of ownership beat the higher cost of operation.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:54 pm

IIRC, the entire DL 767-300ER fleet is scheduled to be updated like the 767-400ERs. This means that there is a lot of anticipated life left in this fleet for DL. Delta is more focussed on replacing their short haul fleet for now, as the DC-9s and MD-88s are closer to their end of service life than the longhaul fleet.

When the time comes to make a decision on what to replace the 767s with, DL will buy whatever aircraft makes the most sense from a financial perspective...I don't think that DL is even in that decision making process at this point.

[Edited 2012-04-18 10:56:39]
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:59 pm

They had 787s on order, which would have been a good replacement, especially on some of the longer 767 routes that approach 12 hours in duration. However DL deferred those out to 2020.

It seems like DL is content with the 767s and will be the last US airline operating 767s. Judging from their history of purchasing many airplanes on the used market and operating airplanes longer than their competitors, it does not surprise me that they don't have a 767 fleet replacement plan yet.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:10 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):
Just because DL bought out NW doesn't automatically make DL a loyal Airbus customer. When the time comes to replace the 767 fleet, expect Delta to order some 787-9s.

I remember when everyone was expecting DL to choose the A321 over the 739ER. Look how that turned out.

They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:22 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):

They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties.

What penalties? It seems to me that DL voluntarily deferred those a/c. Because of the DL/NW merger, DL was the first U.S. carrier in line to take delivery, but I don't think DL wanted to do that, anyway......at least not at that time.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.

You have a source for this assertion, other than the assertions of other a.netters?
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):

Just because DL bought out NW doesn't automatically make DL a loyal Airbus customer. When the time comes to replace the 767 fleet, expect Delta to order some 787-9s.

I remember when everyone was expecting DL to choose the A321 over the 739ER. Look how that turned out.

Just because they bought the 739 doesn't mean they are a loyal Boeing customer, either. They will buy wherever they get the best deal. There is no question after the AA loss that Boeing pulled out all the stops to get that order.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):
Just because DL bought out NW doesn't automatically make DL a loyal Airbus customer. When the time comes to replace the 767 fleet, expect Delta to order some 787-9s.

I remember when everyone was expecting DL to choose the A321 over the 739ER. Look how that turned out.

They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.

I have heard this as well (and certainly agree the A-321 is a much better aircraft,) and understand from some people I know at the manufacturers that Boeing undercut Airbus on price with fairly incredible discounts. I don't know the specifics, and personally believe that the gist of your post is correct but have no inside knowledge of the deal. Having said that, do you have a source you can reveal for this information or at least tell us where you got this accounting of the deal?
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:38 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 11):
What penalties? It seems to me that DL voluntarily deferred those a/c. Because of the DL/NW merger, DL was the first U.S. carrier in line to take delivery, but I don't think DL wanted to do that, anyway......at least not at that time.

The major reason for finally throwing up their arms and deferring the orders was the massive delay in entry into service of the 787. DL (by virtue of NW) accumulated a pile of penalties owed to it from Boeing for the delays.

I was in the schoolhouse when the order came through. It took everyone by surprise. The fleet captain walked into class and said that all signs pointed toward getting the A321, and they fully expected that to be announced. However, Boeing apparently finally gave in on paying the penalties and took that off the price of the 739ER.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:50 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 14):
I was in the schoolhouse when the order came through. It took everyone by surprise. The fleet captain walked into class and said that all signs pointed toward getting the A321, and they fully expected that to be announced. However, Boeing apparently finally gave in on paying the penalties and took that off the price of the 739ER.

I think it surprised a lot of people (myself included.) I think it's clear that DL is none too eager for B-787's anytime soon, which is fine. I have no knowledge of the DL B-767 fleet plan, but I cannot imagine that when it comes time to look at replacement aircraft they won't look at both the B-787 and A-350 and see whichever deal is most advantageous at that time, just like they did this time.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:57 pm

I personally think anyone claiming that DL ordered the 739ER because Boeing made an incredible good deal is basing that on personal opinion and subjectivity rather than real facts. Both Boeing and Airbus have large profit margins on their narrowbodies and long backlogs. The information that Boeing has released to shareholders indicate that the 737 line is producing double digit profit margins. There's no giving airplanes away at cost going on at either Airbus or Boeing. This is not a time like in 2002-2003 when both manufacturers were struggling to fill their production lines, laying people off and doing anything they could just to keep production moving. I have seen quite a few times when this argument is made: "We all know (insert airplane or engine) is better, so (competing airplane or engine) must have been sold at a loss or dirt cheap to get that order". That argument does not make business sense and since there are record profits in the industry right now at the OEMs, I doubt there is any credibility behind it.

In the future 767 replacement, I think because there are existing orders for the 787, the 787 is the obvious choice for them. However with the long deferrals, it could be that DL could walk away from those orders and choose the A350 and use the deposits put down and apply them to their 737 orders (like how it is believed UA finally canceled long existing A320 orders when they ordered the A350). I think the 787 has a better chance because NW did order it, but would not rule out the A350. Either way, I wouldn't expect any new 787s or A350s to show up at DL this decade.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 14):

The major reason for finally throwing up their arms and deferring the orders was the massive delay in entry into service of the 787. DL (by virtue of NW) accumulated a pile of penalties owed to it from Boeing for the delays.

Typically deferring an order like what happened would result in Boeing actually charging DL quite a bit because Boeing lost money allowing the deferral. I personally believe that because of the delays, DL was able to defer the order without penalties. Boeing had already designed the configuration and customized the production of the first few airplanes in the NW configuration, so they did absorb cost that they likely didn't get paid for. I don't have any insider knowledge, but it doesn't make business sense to compensate a customer for delays on a product that they didn't want.

[Edited 2012-04-18 12:15:45]
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:57 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
They have the 787-8 orders from NW.

Ed Bastian, DL President and CEO told me personally at a company function that DL passed on the initial NW orders for the 787-8 because it was overweight and was not nearly reaching the contracted performance. They deferred the order until 2020 and he said he preferred the 787-9 because the capacity was closer to what DL needed. Presumably, Boeing will have no problem in switching to the larger aircraft for a very reliable customer.

Can't beat that for a "reilable source."

IIRC those original NW airframes were or are being delivered to ANA who got a really good deal on them. Some of the aircraft on the assembly line already had the rudders installed and painted in the NW colors because they need to have them painted in order to get them correctly balanced. There are numerous pictures on a.net of those frames.

I have neither heard nor read that DL was ever interested in the A321. In the original NW order, the A321 was mentioned but was never finalized. They were very happy with the A319 and 320's.

It is correct that DL is more interested in renewing the short-medium haul fleet rather than the long range fleet. They are happy with the 777ER and 777LR's and the A330's have a lot of life left in them. The A330-200 IMHO is the better of the two but the extra 50 pax on the -300's is much needed for Trans-Atlantic routes. European flights are packed to the rafters every day.

Some of the older MD88's have been parked but DL is pulling some of the 757 5500 series that were parked at Marana out of the desert and returning them to service. See this month's edition of Airliner World for details. How FedEx would dearly love to get their hands on some of those! A few of the older DL 757's have been converted to freighters for FedEx.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:23 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 1):
I thought the entire widebody fleet was scheduled for upgrades?

they are. (minus the domestic 767-332s)

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):

The -8 is the 300ER replacement. The -9 and the A350 are to large for a good bit of Delta's thin Euro routes.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 7):
They pushed them back to 2020, IIRC.

hmmm so 8 years after mods. perfect timing.  
Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties.

They didn't. The Boeing 787 money went to upping the MTOW on the 737-832 fleet. Went up 1,000lbs per A/c iirc.

the 900ERs were given a good deal to keep Delta.

and just FWIW. Had Boeing been going against the 787 contract Delta would have taken them to court. Boeing doesn't get to hold out on payments for late aircraft.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 14):
The major reason for finally throwing up their arms and deferring the orders was the massive delay in entry into service of the 787.

No it was this lovely economy. The 787 will have it s**t together long before 2020, but the 787-8 is needed till the 67s need replacing. (right around 2020)

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 17):

Can't beat that for a "reilable source."

he is right for growth, wrong for replacing the 76s. -9 is to big, or he is going back to Europe=CDG/AMS/FRA and LON, like he did at NW.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:32 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
I don't have any insider knowledge, but it doesn't make business sense to compensate a customer for delays on a product that they didn't want.

It does if it's a good customer and your product is two years late. I actually thought DL might walk away from those aircraft or take more 777's (and certainly would be able to get out of the contract given Boeing's serial underperformance,) but given the delay issue and the fact that the pre-merger DL was obviously not terribly excited about ordering the 787, I am fairly confident that nobody is paying Boeing anything to defer aircraft they don't really want.

As for your assertion about Boeing having to write off the cost of cabin work done on the presumed NW aircraft, had Boeing tried to recoup those costs given that the delays were wholly their fault, I can't envision many forthcoming orders for Boeing products. Boeing's gross underperformance in this regard makes it even more likely, contrary to your assertions, that huge concessions were made to DL when the 739 order was placed.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
I personally think anyone claiming that DL ordered the 739ER because Boeing made an incredible good deal is basing that on personal opinion and subjectivity rather than real facts.

I am glad that you made it clear that was your opinion. Please tell us the facts of the deal and put an end to the speculation.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
Both Boeing and Airbus have large profit margins on their narrowbodies and long backlogs. The information that Boeing has released to shareholders indicate that the 737 line is producing double digit profit margins.

There is no question both aircraft are profitable (nobody has said otherwise,) but you can't really believe that after losing a huge amount of credibility (and face) when AA defected to Airbus that Boeing wouldn't do anything to place 737's at Delta, do you?

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 17):
How FedEx would dearly love to get their hands on some of those!

They will be getting some pretty soon...when do those 739's arrive?
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:39 pm

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 18):
The -8 is the 300ER replacement. The -9 and the A350 are to large for a good bit of Delta's thin Euro routes.
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 18):
Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 17):

Can't beat that for a "reilable source."


he is right for growth, wrong for replacing the 76s. -9 is to big, or he is going back to Europe=CDG/AMS/FRA and LON, like he did at NW.

I personally don't know what aircraft is best for any airline in 2020, but I'm thinking Bastian knows way more about the needs of DL than anyone on this board. Maybe DL will take 788's, maybe they won't; I don't know or frankly care, but musings of people (no matter how well informed) on this board about fleet planning are no substitute for knowledge of actual data only available to senior decision makers at any airline.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:43 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 14):
The major reason for finally throwing up their arms and deferring the orders was the massive delay in entry into service of the 787. DL (by virtue of NW) accumulated a pile of penalties owed to it from Boeing for the delays.

In my opinion, NW may have been ready and willing to take delivery, but, frankly, DL wasn't.......they deferred the orders (after much negotiation with Boeing) and there were NO penalties.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 8:05 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
I personally think anyone claiming that DL ordered the 739ER because Boeing made an incredible good deal is basing that on personal opinion and subjectivity rather than real facts.

I've heard it from the horse's mouth. Hows that for the real facts?   As soon as they saw the price on the 739ER, they immediately told Airbus no deal.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 18):
They didn't. The Boeing 787 money went to upping the MTOW on the 737-832 fleet. Went up 1,000lbs per A/c iirc.

They still owed Delta quite a bit more even after that gross weight and ZFW increase, hence the price on the 739s.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
Typically deferring an order like what happened would result in Boeing actually charging DL quite a bit because Boeing lost money allowing the deferral. I personally believe that because of the delays, DL was able to defer the order without penalties. Boeing had already designed the configuration and customized the production of the first few airplanes in the NW configuration, so they did absorb cost that they likely didn't get paid for. I don't have any insider knowledge, but it doesn't make business sense to compensate a customer for delays on a product that they didn't want.

The 787 was delayed long before DL started deferring the orders, hence the massive penalties that were owed. There was no penalty on deferring as the 787-8 is not able to perform the weight and payload that it was originally promised.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 8:31 pm

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 19):
I am fairly confident that nobody is paying Boeing anything to defer aircraft they don't really want.

If an airline makes any changes to the configuration or delivery timeframe of an airplane after its firm configuration is set (typically 10-12 months before scheduled delivery) then there is a fee associated with that. The same is true with both Boeing and Airbus. If changes are made after firm configuration there are costs associated with changing engineering, ordering different parts, expediting delivery, etc. Boeing and Airbus engineering has to configure the airplane and options. Everything from galley location, window plugs, flight deck options, etc need to be decided so that they can be ordered for production in the 10-12 month window. If things change it affects the production system and airlines have to pay for that because it forces Boeing and Airbus to rework their airplanes. Deferring is even worse than a smaller change such as moving a lavatory, as it requires that airplane to have to be reconfigured and reworked (even if the actual fuselage itself has not been produced yet, parts have been ordered).

My claim is that typically an airline does have to pay for such changes as the costs are clear and can be itemized, but in the case of the 787 and delays, it is not following the same process that an established program does.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):

I've heard it from the horse's mouth. Hows that for the real facts? As soon as they saw the price on the 739ER, they immediately told Airbus no deal.

I don't deny good price and motivation to keep DL as a loyal customer after the 787 issues, but I do not believe the claim at CRJ-900 price. A few percent sales price deeper discount or packaging some other parts of the deal to make it look more enticing or offering engineering assistance on modifying the 737-800 fleet makes sense, but selling at a loss does not.

[Edited 2012-04-18 13:36:39]
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
ey have the 787-8 orders from NW.

Delta canceled all of the 787-8 orders
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:39 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 24):
Delta canceled all of the 787-8 orders

are you sure? cut and paste from boeing orders:


Orders Cumulative through March 2012
Customer Name Country Region Model Engine Order Date Total
Delta Air Lines U.S.A. North America 787-8 RR 06-May-2005 18
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
Just curious to see what a.netters thought about replacements for Delta's 767 fleet. The -400's have all been redone so I think they will around for a long while but some of the 767ER's are not scheduled for the upgrades. Some of them have some years on them, too.



The BOD approved mods for the 76Gs some time last year. That was the only subfleet of the 76ERs that was in limbo, so as it stands, all ERs will get the interior mod.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.



???

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 14):
The major reason for finally throwing up their arms and deferring the orders was the massive delay in entry into service of the 787. DL (by virtue of NW) accumulated a pile of penalties owed to it from Boeing for the delays.



Source? IDK where you're getting this information from but what has been put out to employees by senior leadership (senior executives) was something very different. IT's also not too hard to look up what DL is paying for the 739s. I'm not sure what the SEC form is but it's put out quarterly if i'm not mistaken and lists all a/c currently being paid for and how much (payments are made every 6 months).
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:02 pm

Quoting GCPET (Reply 5):
Mix of 787's, A350's, 777's and maybe some A330's? As they seem quite happy with them.

GCPET


I don't think that the A330 will be a viable choice as it will be a little long in the tooth by the time DL decides on a replacement for its 763 fleet.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
The A321 was the clear choice,

Clear choice for whom? The purchased the 738 and 9 from Boeing so I guess it was not that clear.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:28 pm

I honestly think we'll see more 772s/77Ls delivered for a lot of the trunk routes throughout Europe and Asia, and (unfortunately) increased use of the 757 to Europe on older 767 routes.

I think what DL is doing is that they might cancel the 787 order, then subsequently reschedule it for when they figure out their fleet.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:12 pm

The 767 is a solid aircraft and in the manner in which DL has utilized the ERs, we will see many of them around well into the next decade. The first ER delivered in 1990, ship 171, just exceeded 100,000 hours with only around 14000 cycles. It has a lot of life left in it and will soldier on for quite a few more years with a fresh cabin upgrade. The 767 fleet has aged very well and there is no reason for them not to fly another 10-15 years. When the 767s go, I strongly suspect the replacement will be the 787 8 or 9, possibly a mix. The 787in 2020 will be a mature aircraft that should be meeting performace specs and may be considerably improved. While DL has had a history of being an early customer for aircraft, I don't see that happening with the replacement for the 767.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:14 am

I think they will probably go with the 787-9. I think they might be able to get a good deal from Boeing because of the delays with the 787 program.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:23 am

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.

Intreting... Can you please provide a reference to a 739 being sold at the price of a CR9? Otherwise just stop talking non-sense.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 15):
think it surprised a lot of people (myself included.) I think it's clear that DL is none too eager for B-787's anytime soon, which is fine. I have no knowledge of the DL B-767 fleet plan, but I cannot imagine that when it comes time to look at replacement aircraft they won't look at both the B-787 and A-350 and see whichever deal is most advantageous at that time, just like they did this time.

Why would they consider the A350 for a 767 replacement. Isn't it considerably bigger??? They cannot fill the 767's they have, why would they go bigger?
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:32 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 31):
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 15):
think it surprised a lot of people (myself included.) I think it's clear that DL is none too eager for B-787's anytime soon, which is fine. I have no knowledge of the DL B-767 fleet plan, but I cannot imagine that when it comes time to look at replacement aircraft they won't look at both the B-787 and A-350 and see whichever deal is most advantageous at that time, just like they did this time.

Why would they consider the A350 for a 767 replacement. Isn't it considerably bigger??? They cannot fill the 767's they have, why would they go bigger?

I didn't suggest I knew what they would buy, in fact I specifically said I did NOT know. Neither did I suggest that all the B-767's would be replaced with a single type. Routinely 737's and A-320's are flying legs that were formerly the domain of the 757, 767, and even L-1011; doubtlessly that trend will continue as the 737-900's join DL's fleet.

Further, where are you getting your information that DL "cannot fill the 767's they have"? Have you looked at their load factors? I didn't contend they wouldn't operate 787's. I don't know, however, that that will be the exclusive replacement for their 767 fleet.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:47 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 31):
They cannot fill the 767's they have, why would they go bigger?
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 32):
Have you looked at their load factors?

Load factor at ~84% for first quarter 2012, I have seen no problems filling the 767s.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:49 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
My claim is that typically an airline does have to pay for such changes as the costs are clear and can be itemized, but in the case of the 787 and delays, it is not following the same process that an established program does.

Since we are specifically discussing the 787 orders, that's the relevant part, not what is typical when an airline wishes to defer orders for their convenience. The fact is that Boeing was epically delayed because of their incompetence and inability to manage the program.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
I don't deny good price and motivation to keep DL as a loyal customer after the 787 issues, but I do not believe the claim at CRJ-900 price. A few percent sales price deeper discount or packaging some other parts of the deal to make it look more enticing or offering engineering assistance on modifying the 737-800 fleet makes sense, but selling at a loss does not.

What you actually said was "I personally think anyone claiming that DL ordered the 739ER because Boeing made an incredible good deal is basing that on personal opinion and subjectivity rather than real facts." That certainly seems to claim that the decisions were made exclusively on technical merit and not on financial incentive which is entirely unlikely in this case given the ludicrous 787 boondoggle and the pressure on Boeing to sell their antique platform after unexpectedly losing the AA order. I do agree with you that the price matching any variety of CRJ seems farfetched, but it is absolutely in the realm of possibility that Boeing was willing to discount 739's to a ridiculous degree to keep the second major US carrier from abandoning the 737 for the future, particularly inasmuch as they had no real idea that there even would be a 737MAX until just before the order when AA forced their hand.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting B757forever (Reply 33):
Load factor at ~84% for first quarter 2012, I have seen no problems filling the 767s.

But what will it be for the year as a whole? Airplanes are full and getting fuller, particularly with the rigorous capacity discipline we have seen recently. That load factor is not 100% in no way means that there isn't a need for larger (and in some cases, smaller) aircraft in a future fleet. Which is pretty much a summary of what I have said. Anyone that thinks DL (or pretty much any US carrier other than Southwest or Alaska) will arbitrarily NOT look at Airbus products when evaluating future fleet requirements is being unrealistic.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:58 am

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 20):

I personally don't know what aircraft is best for any airline in 2020, but I'm thinking Bastian knows way more about the needs of DL than anyone on this board. Maybe DL will take 788's, maybe they won't; I don't know or frankly care, but musings of people (no matter how well informed) on this board about fleet planning are no substitute for knowledge of actual data only available to senior decision makers at any airline.

Right, because I'm to stupid to figure out trends, and to do simple math. Thanks.

The 787-8 is the replacement for the 767-3. Now if Delta wants to cut a good bit of its Euro network back and focus on the big 4-5 citys (LHR/AMS/CDG/FCO and FRA) then they wont need something that small, but a A350 or 787-9 on a route like ATL-PRG is asking for a good bit of red ink.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):

They still owed Delta quite a bit more even after that gross weight and ZFW increase, hence the price on the 739s.

...Dude your well off. Lets do a little simple math that PGNCS says I'm to dumb to do.
Your saying the late payments on an aircraft is somewhere, lets just assume it gets the 739 10% from list prices, around 8.6 per aircraft, or 860,000,000M total. Almost 1 billion dollars. Are you serous? So if Delta gets a billion what about companys that have 2-3-4-5x the number of 787s on order?

Think about it for a second. Boeing gave Delta a discount because it wanted Delta to order Boeing. Not because they *had* to. (oh and FWIW taking payments off of of new aircraft isn't really giving a discount anyways. Its still money out of Delta's checkbook.)

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 26):

Source? IDK where you're getting this information from but what has been put out to employees by senior leadership (senior executives) was something very different. IT's also not too hard to look up what DL is paying for the 739s. I'm not sure what the SEC form is but it's put out quarterly if i'm not mistaken and lists all a/c currently being paid for and how much (payments are made every 6 months).

I'm not sure if you can get the raw data that easy. Maybe, i would start by digging into 8Ks.

But Delta gets discounts from Boeing, thats not wrong, its just the idea that Boeing owed Delta billions of dollars for late 787s that is darn near bat s**t crazy.  
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:20 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 36):
Right, because I'm to stupid to figure out trends, and to do simple math. Thanks.

The 787-8 is the replacement for the 767-3. Now if Delta wants to cut a good bit of its Euro network back and focus on the big 4-5 citys (LHR/AMS/CDG/FCO and FRA) then they wont need something that small, but a A350 or 787-9 on a route like ATL-PRG is asking for a good bit of red ink.

Did I say that? No. Do not misquote me. Basic math has nothing to do with it: are you seriously contending that you have as much data and insight into DL's operation, yields, and needs as Ed Bastian? Did I ever say DL would order a single type? No. Did I contend that there were city pairs where larger aircraft would be better? Yes. I also said that the trend was for smaller aircraft replacing larger aircraft. Nowhere did I say that DL wouldn't buy 787's or would buy A-350's. What I specifically DID say was that I did not know what they would buy. I also said that anyone who thinks that DL or any other carrier won't look at all the aircraft available prior to making a huge capital expenditure is unrealistic.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 36):
Think about it for a second. Boeing gave Delta a discount because it wanted Delta to order Boeing. Not because they *had* to.

Absolutely. Everything is subject to renegotiation; had DL not accepted whatever discount they may (or may not) have received on their 739 order, they would have been able to exercise their contractual rights to cancel the 787's entirely and/or require Boeing to pay whatever penalties were specified in their contract for underperformance and late deliveries.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 36):
I'm not sure if you can get the raw data that easy. Maybe, i would start by digging into 8Ks.

But Delta gets discounts from Boeing, thats not wrong, its just the idea that Boeing owed Delta billions of dollars for late 787s that is darn near bat s**t crazy

Really? Do you think it's crazy then that Boeing has been negotiating penalties with a variety of 787 operators and future operators? DL (and NW) is shrewd enough to incorporate standard penalties for underperformance and late delivery into their contracts, too. Call it a penalty, call it a discount, call it an incentive to buy Boeing, whatever you want to call it semantically the net result is the same: Boeing renegotiated the terms of the DL 787 acquisition, much to their relief, and gave DL a very good deal on aircraft. Is there a connection? Judge for yourself.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:39 am

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 35):
Anyone that thinks DL (or pretty much any US carrier other than Southwest or Alaska) will arbitrarily NOT look at Airbus products when evaluating future fleet requirements is being unrealistic.

Agreed 100%. Rarely is a fleet decision based solely on technical merits. A combination of technical attributes, price and the overall terms wins the decision. The 737-900 order is most likely a prime example as I doubt anyone in this discussion knows the intimate details of the real offerings of A and B to Delta.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:48 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 26):
Source? IDK where you're getting this information from but what has been put out to employees by senior leadership (senior executives) was something very different. IT's also not too hard to look up what DL is paying for the 739s. I'm not sure what the SEC form is but it's put out quarterly if i'm not mistaken and lists all a/c currently being paid for and how much (payments are made every 6 months).
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 36):
I'm not sure if you can get the raw data that easy. Maybe, i would start by digging into 8Ks.

Not in 8-Ks; here it is..

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=71481&p=irol-sec

Go to the "Grouping Filter" Drop down box and select Registration Statements.

739s aren't listed yet though.

[Edited 2012-04-18 20:50:25]
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:05 am

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 37):
Did I say that? No. Do not misquote me. Basic math has nothing to do with it: are you seriously contending that you have as much data and insight into DL's operation, yields, and needs as Ed Bastian?

No, but what I am saying is Delta replacing the 767-3 with 787-9 would mean a rather large change to the Delta network. I'm not saying the 787-8 WILL replace the 767, heck Delta may create its own friggin airplane, I am however saying they wont be doing a large capacity dump on the Atlantic market.

An airline that has been cutting its TATL network isn't going to add that much capacity to it. (and as you have pointed out the trend has been to get smaller, not larger)

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 37):
Do you think it's crazy then that Boeing has been negotiating penalties with a variety of 787 operators and future operators?

No I'm saying the numbers are crazy. To get the 739 price *that* low would cost Boeing Billions. The numbers that have been said, MTOW upgrade on the 737s and 739 to CR9 price would be well over what has been given out to airlines with more 787s on order.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 24):

"Do you have any link to back that statement up?"  
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 26):

The BOD approved mods for the 76Gs some time last year. That was the only subfleet of the 76ERs that was in limbo, so as it stands, all ERs will get the interior mod.

FWIW wouldn't have matter, the 76Gs would have been parked had they not gotten the green light.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:38 am

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 24):
Delta canceled all of the 787-8 orders



Afraid not, Bob........DL renogiated the delivery dates and deferred them for later. I sure that the negotiations made DL very happy because they weren't ready for them and it made Boeing very happy because they could give those early delivery slots to other airlines that may not have been happy that they'd been delayed, initially.


Again, I'll say it, in my opinion.....if NW still existed, they MAY have been unhappy with the 787 delays and tried to force the penalty issue, but they don't exist. DL wasn't in the market for any and really didn't want them as soon as NW was supposed to get them, so they didn't push the penalty issue......they just renegotiated the delivery dates for later.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:20 am

Per DL's SEC filing, they received a 51% discount off list for their 737-900ER order, which is about normal nowadays for an order of that size (100 frames).
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:55 am

Quoting GCPET (Reply 5):
Mix of 787's, A350's, 777's and maybe some A330's? As they seem quite happy with them.

The 787-8, 9, and 10 can replace just about the whole widebody fleet of Delta, 767s, 772s, A332s, A333s... So I don't think it will be likely we'll see the A350 in DL colours. The only DL WB plane the 787 probably cannot replace is the 744, but I doubt DL will order an A350 (-1000?) for just the relatively small number of 747's.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 17):
They deferred the order until 2020 and he said he preferred the 787-9 because the capacity was closer to what DL needed.

Hmm, I wonder about that. It will mean a big step up in capacity if DL replaces their 767's for 789's on a 1 to 1 basis. But AA will do exactly the same, so it could happen at DL as well. Just wondering about the TA 757's, will US airlines gamble on NEO's or MAX to be able to take over their role?   
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:02 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 10):
They bought the 739ER because of the massive amounts of money Boeing owed DL due to the 787 penalties. The A321 was the clear choice, but the 739 was sold to for the price of a CRJ900.

Why would the A-321 be a "clear choice" for DL? They have a lot of B-737-700s/-800s in their fleet now, so ordering the -900ER makes sense for DL from a fleet prospective. The A-319s/-320s they inhairated in the NW merger are all old and will need replacing when DL begins replacing their MD-88s and B-757s (the B-737-900ERs are replacing some of the oldest B-727-200s). DL's next big order is replacing the MD-88s, A-319s, A-320s and the rest of the B-757s. I suspect that order will be a combination of B-737NGs and B-737-7MAX/-8MAX/-9MAX, with DL being the launch customer for the B-737-7MAX. DL may even order the BBD CS-100/-300, too.

Quoting mayor (Reply 11):
What penalties? It seems to me that DL voluntarily deferred those a/c. Because of the DL/NW merger, DL was the first U.S. carrier in line to take delivery, but I don't think DL wanted to do that, anyway......at least not at that time.
Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 12):
You have a source for this assertion, other than the assertions of other a.netters?

No, he doesn't as there is no source, he is just speculating.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 13):
I have heard this as well (and certainly agree the A-321 is a much better aircraft,) and understand from some people I know at the manufacturers that Boeing undercut Airbus on price with fairly incredible discounts. I don't know the specifics, and personally believe that the gist of your post is correct but have no inside knowledge of the deal. Having said that, do you have a source you can reveal for this information or at least tell us where you got this accounting of the deal?

Why is the A-321 a "much better aircraft" for DL? The A-321 weighs some 7200 lbs more than the heaviest version of the B-737-900ER, and burns more fuel. It doesn't fit the DL route structure, and the A-321 is far from a full B-757 replacement. Both the B-737-900ER and A-321 can only replace the B-757 on about 75% of the routes DL uses the B-757 on. But neither have TATL capability, nor non-stop TRANSCON capability. The B-739 is perfect for the STL-ATL route or the STL-DFW-ATL route, or DTW-STL.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:25 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
If an airline makes any changes to the configuration or delivery timeframe of an airplane after its firm configuration is set (typically 10-12 months before scheduled delivery) then there is a fee associated with that. The same is true with both Boeing and Airbus. If changes are made after firm configuration there are costs associated with changing engineering, ordering different parts, expediting delivery, etc. Boeing and Airbus engineering has to configure the airplane and options. Everything from galley location, window plugs, flight deck options, etc need to be decided so that they can be ordered for production in the 10-12 month window. If things change it affects the production system and airlines have to pay for that because it forces Boeing and Airbus to rework their airplanes. Deferring is even worse than a smaller change such as moving a lavatory, as it requires that airplane to have to be reconfigured and reworked (even if the actual fuselage itself has not been produced yet, parts have been ordered).



This is correct and it is an area that Boeing should take a look at what Airbus does. Boeing still custom builds every airplane to an airline's order. Location of lavs, galleys, closets, crew rest areas, etc. are changed airline to airline which not only drives up the costs but when an order is cancelled for whatever reason Boeing has to dismantle everything and redo it for the new owner. I recall that when NW bought two 747-200 aircraft that had originally been built for Braniff International and never taken delivery of were then sold to Air Algerie, painted and configured inside as they wanted it and eventually that sale fell through so NW got them relatively cheaply but still they reconfigured the interior to their standard configuration. They only thing that remained was that the Braniff ships all had the straight up stairs to the upper deck rather than the circular stairs NW had. Having worked on the 747 at Braniff and NW I could spot the one thing they kep from the original airplane--it was a glass panel at the top of the stairs outside the cockpit door with a big flower on it.
Airbus, however, basically sells a single airplane. Lavs, galleys and things are all located in exactly the same place on every Airbus aircraft. The customer airline can pick whatever carpeting or seats they want and the seating configuration but the basic airplane stays the same. Keeps costs down and makes it very easy to resell an airplane that has been cancelled.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 28):
I honestly think we'll see more 772s/77Ls delivered for a lot of the trunk routes throughout Europe and Asia, and (unfortunately) increased use of the 757 to Europe on older 767 routes



Ugh. 757's on the Trans-Atlantic is an exercise in pure torture. For both passengers and crew. Personally, I see the 737-9 order as a replacement for the 757 as some of them are getting a little long in the tooth. The original aircraft delivered in 1985 are still in service.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:39 pm

Now just to throw a little gas on the fire here. The industry is still consolidating and it is anybody's guess on whether AA will emerge from Chapter 11 intact or will merge with US or (better still in the eyes of many an airline executive) be forced into Chapter 7 liquidation. DL, UA, US and others will all go scrambling for the pieces they want and whatever that shakes out to be could seriously affect what types of airplanes and when they would be delivered. The 787 becomes an instant player again at that point for long, thin international routes. From experiece I can tell you the DL could fill a 747-400 daily if it could fly nonstop from DTW to MNL but it lacks the range to fly at full capacity. Philippine families are wonderful about flying back and forth to see families and friends and are excellent customers. That is a perfect example of where the 787-9 would be a logical fit. That being said, I think the 777LR could do it as they fly DTW-HKG daily. I don't think I have ever worked a flight into MNL that was not full or close to it. Pure speculation here but if DL wound up with the MIA or DFW hubs the 787 woud be a great airplane.
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:57 pm

The 787-9 and the A350 will both be larger than the current 767s. I wonder if DL would consider some used A332/333 to replace some of the oldest 767s? This would fit with their recent strategy of acquiring used planes that already fit with their fleet and still have a good amount of life yet. The A330 series is perfectly suited to DL's operations.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:12 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
Just curious to see what a.netters thought about replacements for Delta's 767 fleet. The -400's have all been redone so I think they will around for a long while but some of the 767ER's are not scheduled for the upgrades.

Let's look at the concrete evidence here:

- DL chose to defer to 2020, but not to cancel or convert into other types, its 787-8 order.
- DL is retrofitting ALL 767-300ERs with AVOD, pivot bins, and lie-flats.
- The first 767-300ERs will reach 30 years old in 2020.
- DL has said (in its release announcing the order) that the 739ER is to replace, among other aircraft, the domestic 763s.

The logical conclusion is that DL currently plans to backfill the domestic 767-300 capacity with 737-900ERs and used MD-90s, and to replace the 767-300ERs at the end of their useful life with 787-8s. Of course 2020 is still a long way out and DL has the flexibility to change to the 787-9 if it wants to grow capacity or to convert the 787 order to other types if it decides it wants A350s or something else not yet introduced.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
Per DL's SEC filing, they received a 51% discount off list for their 737-900ER order, which is about normal nowadays for an order of that size (100 frames).

And 50% off the list price of a 737-900ER happens to be within the ballpark of list price for a CRJ900. Much hyperbole about nothing in some of the above posts.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 17):
How FedEx would dearly love to get their hands on some of those!

FX probably doesn't want the oldest PMDL frames because of very high cycles. They may want some PMNW 5500s, but then again they already rejected some of the first batch of 5500s to be retired.
 
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RE: Any Thoughts On A Replacement For DL's 767's?

Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 41):
Afraid not, Bob........DL renogiated the delivery dates and deferred them for later. I sure that the negotiations made DL very happy because they weren't ready for them and it made Boeing very happy because they could give those early delivery slots to other airlines that may not have been happy that they'd been delayed, initially.


You are right, I should have used the word deferred rather than canceled.