Cipango
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FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:49 pm

Ryanair doesn't plan on any big order until 2015, at which point it may order between 200 and 400 aircraft.

Its planning on doubling capacity to 150 million passengers also.

Full Story Here:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0419/rya...-big-plane-order-after-2á014.html

[Edited 2012-04-19 08:59:38]
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phxa340
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:09 pm

I am wondering if the MAX sales start to stall , a nice 200 order from Ryanair could help the drought.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:50 pm

Quoting PHXA340 (Reply 1):

I am wondering if the MAX sales start to stall , a nice 200 order from Ryanair could help the drought.

In that scenario, I already dread MOL's comments. I do believe they could be uglier than his infamous "r-----d Boeing' comment.

Note: For the link I had 'file not found.'

Lightsaber
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Clydenairways
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting PHXA340 (Reply 1):
I am wondering if the MAX sales start to stall , a nice 200 order from Ryanair could help the drought.

I think Boeing will be much more careful not to fall into that Ryanair trap again. I can't see MOL being allowed to "Rape" Boeing as he has stated in the past, again.
I'd say, call his bluff and see if he really is serious about ordering Chinese aircraft! I wouldn't count on it. Airbus has already said they won't play games with Ryanair again.

Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair, rather than the other way around.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
I can't see MOL being allowed to "Rape" Boeing as he has stated in the past, again.
Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair,

Clearly Boeing would have been sufficiently happy with the price, terms, etc, or the deal wouldn't have been done.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
kl911
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:16 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair, rather than the other way around.

Well, its better when Ryanair gets its planes as cheap as possible in order to keep ticketprices down.
This ofcourse is my opinion as passenger.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:28 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 6):
Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair, rather than the other way around.

Well, its better when Ryanair gets its planes as cheap as possible in order to keep ticketprices down.
This ofcourse is my opinion as passenger.

You are both correct and this illustrates the completely obvious point: both sides will negotiate until a mutually acceptable deal has been reached. That's the point of negotiating.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
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lightsaber
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:38 pm

I speculate the order timeframe is intentionally after the expected first flight of the C919. I do not expect FR to order the type, but I do expect MOL to use it for every possible concession possible.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
Clearly Boeing would have been sufficiently happy with the price, terms, etc, or the deal wouldn't have been done.

Agreed. My point is that MOL would create even worse press if his order was perceived as a 'save the MAX' order.   Note: I do not think it will come to that. However, with Boeing's massive production ramp up, large orders of identically configured aircraft would be ideal to 'prime the pump.'

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Clydenairways
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:27 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 6):
Well, its better when Ryanair gets its planes as cheap as possible in order to keep ticketprices down.

Don't suspect it would be passed on. Profit is the ultimate goal.
It's in all our interest to have a healthy aviation industry. For this we need Sustainable organizations and healthy competition, not just for airlines, but for Aircraft manufacturers and Airports too.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
Clearly Boeing would have been sufficiently happy with the price, terms, etc, or the deal wouldn't have been done.

Not really. I say the real fear that the order would have gone to Airbus was more likely (Which was a Ryanair bluff technique anyway). Boeing really needed that order at the time, but the order was always going to be theirs anyway. They should have held out for a better price.
Boeing have stated many times that they will not do another deal like that with Ryanair again.

Ryanair's negotiating techniques and deals are now well known and famous, but back then they stung many big companies who weren't used to it. But you only get stung once.
 
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Stitch
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:30 pm

If Boeing really has 600+ 737 MAX commitments in hand to announce at Farnborough, what's to save?   

As to the belief that FR haven't pulled the trigger on a new order over price, both Boeing and FR have stated in the press that price has long been settled and it's other terms (most likely resale ability and "slow" passenger growth at FR) that are holding up the order. Now that FR seems to feel growth is on the rebound, they're starting to prepare.

[Edited 2012-04-19 12:12:22]
 
Pe@rson
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:35 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 9):
Ryanair's negotiating techniques and deals are now well known and famous, but back then they stung many big companies who weren't used to it.

I disagree because that makes little sense given that Boeing could have said no. Moreover, because Boeing accepted the price and terms we must assume they were sufficiently happy with them. This is clearly logical. If they were not but nevertheless entered into such a huge contract - which would have been absurd - then bigger fool them. Hence they would have been adequately happy.

But we need not agree.

[Edited 2012-04-19 11:39:33]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
GIANCAVIA
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:26 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 7):
You are both correct and this illustrates the completely obvious point: both sides will negotiate until a mutually acceptable deal has been reached. That's the point of negotiating.

Now now dont you know the voices of ANET are so very sure of themselves and "Boeing/Airbus are not interested in Ryanair orders" yadda yadda blah blah. They turn out the same tripe every time Ryanair are mentioned thinking companies like Boeing or Airbus will turn down Millions in profit because they "dont like" MOL's attitude. Amusing stuff..
 
Clydenairways
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:26 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 11):
That makes little sense given Boeing could easily have said no. Moreover, because Boeing accepted the price and terms we must assume they were sufficiently happy with it. This is clearly logical. If they were not but nevertheless entered into such a huge contract - which would have been absurd - then bigger fool them. Hence they would have been adequately happy.

Well that's your conclusion but business is not always that simple or straightforward as that. Companies, even big ones, sometimes will cut margins to the bone and even below cost sell something if they think that they NEED to do it at that particular time, and they could do it to gain something bigger or get the upper hand over the competition in the longer run.

In Boeing's case, they wanted to get the upper hand over the competition Airbus, and also secure and maintain the production line during the lean years. Then be poised to capitalize on this advantage when the market recovered.

It is Ryanair who first brought Wal-Mart and Tesco style supplier deals to aircraft purchasing.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not criticizing Ryanair for getting that deal. I'm just pointing out that Boeing have publicly stated since then that they will not do a deal like that again.

I'm also pointing out that Boeing have the upper hand this time round, because:
Ryanair will no way operate the Chinese aircraft.
Boeing know Ryanair really want Boeing aircraft.
Airbus have publicly said they are not interested in wasting their time playing games with Ryanair.
 
Confuscius
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
I can't see MOL being allowed to "Rape" Boeing as he has stated in the past, again.
Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair,

Clearly Boeing would have been sufficiently happy with the price, terms, etc, or the deal wouldn't have been done.

  

You can't rape a willing soul. Boeing could have walked way...
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fcogafa
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 8:11 pm

Don't forget that MOL recently criticised the MAX as a 'dogs dinner', not a great indicator of his interest!
 
Confuscius
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 15):
Don't forget that MOL recently criticised the MAX as a 'dogs dinner', not a great indicator of his interest!

Like al Baker of Qatar, he's probably ready to order a bunch.  
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Clydenairways
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 15):
Don't forget that MOL recently criticised the MAX as a 'dogs dinner', not a great indicator of his interest!

More Bluff! It's all part of the tactics.

That's the Aeroplane he wants.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
Time for Boeing to make some profit from Ryanair, rather than the other way around.

I'm sure that they did well enough out of the parts and support programme over the last 10 years.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 15):
Don't forget that MOL recently criticised the MAX as a 'dogs dinner', not a great indicator of his interest!
Quoting clydenairways (Reply 17):
More Bluff! It's all part of the tactics.

That's the Aeroplane he wants.

I would agree. Boeing seem the logical choice......but look at the recent Qatar niggling just before the A350 press conference in Dubai (Was it Dubai?) FR and Boeing will haggle until both sides are satisfied.
 
Cipango
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:19 am

A little off topic, but what ever happened to RyanAtlantic? Was this just a publicity stunt offering €10 fares to NYC?
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RickNRoll
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:30 am

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 17):
More Bluff! It's all part of the tactics.

That's the Aeroplane he wants.

He doesn't want that plane. He wants to make the most money he can. He will buy whatever works out to be the most profitable, with the list price being a part of that equation.
 
BD338
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:35 am

Hasn't MOL said that he expects some of the huge orders made by smaller airlines (Norwegian??) to be cancelled? Maybe just waiting to see one of those big orders drop and then swoop in with an offer to "rescue" Boeing from the loss? No doubt at advantageous prices.

Still, it would be fun to see Boeing make an offer like "737-8MAX, your's for $25M sir.....the windows will be extra, the doors extra, avionics extra, a set of tires, 2.5% credit surcharge, delivery, customs paperwork all extra....your total price....$65M  


the interesting note was the aim for 150M passengers. I believe that is around 50M more than Lufthansa Group carried last year and double Ryanair numbers for last year. With FR moving ~70M passengers with a current fleet of ~300 738s and a desire to double both passenger and fleet sizes, it could be assumed that all of the new order of aircraft would be for growth but would FR not replace some (or all) of the existing fleet over the time it takes to deliver 300 new frames? Would that suggest a larger frame might be in the future of FR to be able to use a 300 order to grow and replace?
 
LOWS
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:41 am

Quoting cipango (Reply 19):
A little off topic, but what ever happened to RyanAtlantic? Was this just a publicity stunt offering €10 fares to NYC?

No doubt.

Though it is only 3500 or so miles, so maybe STN-EWR is on the horizon.
 
RyanairGuru
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:57 am

Quoting LOWS (Reply 22):
EWR

EWR?

I think you mean Allentown (New York West)  

After all Allentown PA is only 14mi further from downtown Manhattan than Hahn is from Frankfurt!
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Btblue
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RE: FR Not Making "Big" Aircraft Order Until 2015

Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:24 pm

Of course, Ryanair could be ready to place a "big" aircraft order in 2015... for the proposed 757 replacement.
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