LAXdude1023
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 11:52 am

Hello all,

Should US and AA merge in some form or fashion, how would their hubs be different? Or would they? Whenever you have a merger of this magnitude, inevitably there will be some network casualties. There will also gains from some of the hubs no doubt. The hubs are below:

DFW
ORD
MIA
LAX
JFK
PHL
CLT
PHX

What do each look like after a merger should it happen?
It is what it is...
 
aeroblogger
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:15 pm

I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK. The current US team is very fond of fortress hubs - if they aren't clear #1, they don't want to compete. ORD will have to stick around simply because there is no other viable option in the midwest.

In the end, I'd expect:

PHL
PHX
CLT
MIA
DFW
ORD

Adding in AS to cover the Northwest with PDX/SEA/ANC or even HA covering HNL wouldn't be a bad idea either...
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avi8
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:30 pm

I think JFK would stick around because of their European connections. If they remove JFK, where would those flights go? The O/D that goes from PHL to Europe is nothing compared to JFK. Therefore yields are higher at JFK. PHL would be more connecing traffic than anything resulting in very minimum, if any, profits.
avi8

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jfk777
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:36 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK. The current US team is very fond of fortress hubs - if they aren't clear #1, they don't want to compete. ORD will have to stick around simply because there is no other viable option in the midwest.

In the end, I'd expect:

PHL
PHX
CLT
MIA
DFW
ORD

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.
 
aeroblogger
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:39 pm

Quoting avi8 (Reply 2):
I think JFK would stick around because of their European connections. If they remove JFK, where would those flights go? The O/D that goes from PHL to Europe is nothing compared to JFK. Therefore yields are higher at JFK. PHL would be more connecing traffic than anything resulting in very minimum, if any, profits.

US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.

I imagine JFK like PIT or BOS - some leftover legacy routes to cater to O&D. But connections would be routed through PHL, and a lot of flights would be cut.
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seatback
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:47 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.

Completely agree. JFK isn't going anywhere.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?
 
Byrdluvs747
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 1:13 pm

Ignoring aeroblogger's nonsense.

Anyone with common sense knows all the AA hubs will stay.
DFW - No change
JFK - Will gain at PHL's expense
LAX - Won't gain many routes as T4 is limited in space. Hopefully Dougie will continue to expand asia.
MIA - Will gain some Caribbean routes at CLT's expense.
ORD - Very little change initially.


CLT - Remains as a southeast hub to challenge DL, but will lose Caribbean and possibly GIG.
PHL - Mostly for connecting domestic northeast traffic. Will retain O&D transatlantic traffic.
PHX - Draws down some. Will remain for intra-west routes west of DFW and East of LAX.

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?

The problem is that the expanded presence is at DCA and not IAD. AA would only fly to its hubs from IAD. That however may be enough to tempt IB to restart MAD-IAD again.
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plateman
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 1:48 pm

According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger
"Explore. Dream. Discover." -Mark Twain
 
brandonfsu05
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 1:55 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
CLT - Remains as a southeast hub to challenge DL, but will lose Caribbean and possibly GIG

lol US Airways runs twice as many total flights out of CLT than MIA. US Airways Caribbean flights are serving different markets at different frequencies than Miami. Miami is drawing a lot on O&D with connecting traffic coming from major cities. CLT draws traffic from major areas all across the United States and Canada as well as more regional markets. It's not like US Airways is serving PAP from CLT or something. Aside from Saturday only services, US Airways serves the Caribbean trunk routes out of CLT. I think CLT and MIA are complementary in that respect.

It's very possible that GIG will leave. However, if US/AA continued to grow CLT hub its very possible that CLT could get some additional South American service. I think overtime Brazil traffic will become less Miami/New York centric. Maybe later down the road you could see Brazil service again at CLT. CLT would pretty much be in the same situation it is in with PHL right now. CLT doesn't get any European routes first, PHL does. However, once PHL is established it brings the risk down in running a seasonal service/new route from CLT (MAD, DUB, CDG, 2nd FRA).

But I still don't think this merger is going to happen.
 
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STT757
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:08 pm

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Also, another thought. With an expanded presence in Washington D.C., would AA consider building some international flights at IAD?

No more so than US's former hub at LGA encouraged them to expand from JFK or EWR. DCA is a nice, lucrative niche for the combined carrier. The best they could hope for is further liberalization of the perimeter rules to allow for additional trans-Cons. If there were full liberalization I could see the combined AA pulling up stakes at IAD altogether, however I think what will happen will not be full liberalization but rather piece meal, as has been done already, based solely on the strength of various Congressional delegations.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
JFK - Will gain at PHL's expense

I can see some A330s going to JFK, but without additional slots any hope of building up JFK to challenge DL is really unrealistic.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
MIA - Will gain some Caribbean routes at CLT's expense.

I think CLT will continue as a Caribbean connecting point, when AA had their RDU hub they also had a nice sized Caribbean network from their to compliment what they had at MIA and SJU. CLT is a better connecting point for the Caribbean, less crowded, and much more diverse network of domestic connections opportunities.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
ORD - Very little change initially.

I think with ORD they are either going to fight or flight, either refocus on rebuilding their competitive position or cut back to a focus city.
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aeroblogger
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
Ignoring aeroblogger's nonsense.

Why? What's nonsense about it.

AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.
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mdtrunner
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:26 pm

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Of course.
 
commavia
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:29 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Should US and AA merge in some form or fashion, how would their hubs be different? Or would they?

From an airport/terminal/facility standpoint, this would actually be a rather seamless and effortless combination/integration, with just a few notable exceptions. In each of the hub stations, combining operations would be very straightforward, as one airline is substantially larger than the other in each one. And in most of the spoke stations - including larger combined stations like BOS, EWR, RDU, MCO, AUS, SFO, SEA, and even DEN - where both carriers now operate, it should be fairly easy to combine operations into one facility footprint without much trouble. In some cases, like EWR, the two airlines already actually operate from the same terminal, basically next to each other, and in others, like BOS, they operate from terminals adjacent to each other (in BOS I suspect AA would move to the current USAirways side of B).

There are only a few places where I could see a combined carrier having challenges. The most obvious ones that leap to mind are LAX and LGA. Both airlines are already relatively large in both airports, and both already have relative large terminal footprints that are completely separate from each other. In both cases, I guess they could go on operating two separate operations, but that is so vastly suboptimal.

At LGA, I don't know what a viable solution would look like - too bad USAirways gave most of their terminal to Delta, as that would have been a perfect location for the combined operation. At LAX, the challenge is also big: I don't know how they would go about combining that. I could see everything from the minimal/bad (continuous T1-T4 busing), to the interim/half-measure (shift T1 ops to closer-to-T4/TBIT T3), to the radical change (work out a grand bargain and combine ops in T1/T2) - I have no idea how LAX would ultimately shake out.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Whenever you have a merger of this magnitude, inevitably there will be some network casualties.

I think there would be some shifting among the hubs to optimize traffic flows. For example, some of traffic that USAirways presently flows over PHL to reach the west coast could more quickly and efficiently be moved over ORD, so I see some added capacity - with the right aircraft - in some northeast-Chicago markets. There could also be some shifts with some of the connections USAirways now routes out of the Pacific Northwest through PHX which could be far more directly served over ORD/DFW, etc. Same with PHX and LAX: PHX is a better connection point (in terms of geography and facilities) for domestic connections, particularly coming out of California, while LAX is obviously a better connection point for international and longhaul traffic (since PHX doesn't really have much of either).

Finally, I could also see some shifting of several PHL/CLT-Europe flights, with JFK benefiting. AA today uses many peak-hour slots at JFK for domestic flights, many on RJs, to feed Europe flights. With a huge hub down I-95 in PHL, many of those domestic connections, particularly to smaller U.S. markets, could be shifted there, freeing up JFK slots to be used for international flights and/or expanded connections to larger domestic stations. Specifically, I could see the combined company shifting VCE, TLV and GLA from PHL up to JFK, and I could see CLT-DUB also potentially moving up to JFK. I think it's also logical to expect a reduced schedule to Germany with the loss of Lufthansa, which I think would come in the form of PHL-FRA going to down to 1 daily (with the second frequency, perhaps reduced to a 752, possibly also shifted to JFK) and PHL-MUC eliminated entirely.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
There will also gains from some of the hubs no doubt.

Yep - particularly domestically. Over time, there would be a lot of gap-filling and dot-connecting, I suspect. There are various domestic routes that would instantly make much more sense given combined scale, and new markets, that each individual network would bring to the combined airline. As a few examples, I could see plenty of new markets easily working - such as ORD-PVD, ORD-PDX, DFW-BUF, PHL-AUS, LAX-PIT, BOS-STL, RDU-BOS, and on and on. Plus, I could actually see a combined airline getting back into some transcon markets like BOS-SFO - a market AA should be able to make work - and even growing the stable of DCA transcons (depending on how difficult it would be to shift DCA-PHX slots). If AA could move some of the PHX slots to other airports, I could see AA going 2x daily DCA-LAX, and possibly even making a go of DCA-SFO. A DCA network including LAX, SAN, SFO, LAS and PHX would be impressive.

Plus, there would of course be hub-to-hub additions - more flights DFW-CLT and DFW-PHL, more frequency and all-mainline ORD-DCA, definitely a shift to all-mainline ORD-PHL and MIA-CLT, and on and on. Internationally, I think it is logical to expect that CLT-LGW would quickly be shifted to CLT-LHR, and that PHL-LHR might get a second frequency, making a total of 4 AA/BA on the route, and that at least one of AA's PHL-LHR flights gets upgraded to a 777.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I wouldn't.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

In this case, I actually do think all of a combined airline's hubs would be 'safe' - at least in the short- to medium-term, but nonetheless pronouncements from airline CEOs about how all the hubs are safe are rather meaningless. Literally every airline merger since 2000 has seen definitive guarantees like that and in every case they have ultimately been meaningless - airlines do whatever makes economic sense, whether that means growing or shrinking hubs, or closing them altogether.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 8):
lol US Airways runs twice as many total flights out of CLT than MIA. US Airways Caribbean flights are serving different markets at different frequencies than Miami. Miami is drawing a lot on O&D with connecting traffic coming from major cities. CLT draws traffic from major areas all across the United States and Canada as well as more regional markets. It's not like US Airways is serving PAP from CLT or something. Aside from Saturday only services, US Airways serves the Caribbean trunk routes out of CLT. I think CLT and MIA are complementary in that respect.

I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

Quoting brandonfsu05 (Reply 8):
However, if US/AA continued to grow CLT hub its very possible that CLT could get some additional South American service.

I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.

When it comes to CLT-GIG specifically, what I want to know is the status of the USAirways-Delta transaction regarding the GIG-for-GRU route authority swap. If that is still in force, and is not precluded by some contractual language anticipating a merger such as this, then I think the more interesting question is what will AA do with another GRU opportunity? GIG is now effectively open, GRU is not. If AA was able to get its hands on seven more frequencies to GRU, I could see them potentially going for ORD-GRU.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
I can see some A330s going to JFK, but without additional slots any hope of building up JFK to challenge DL is really unrealistic.

Agreed. I think some of the A330s could make sense at JFK for markets like FCO, BCN, etc. But I don't think slots would be an issue at all - an impediment - to AA growing their JFK-Europe schedule a bit. Again - AA warehouses many of their peak-hour JFK slots on domestic connecting flights that could now easily be served over PHL, freeing up those slots to be used for international flying. And as for parity with DL out of JFK/NYC - this merger wouldn't bring it, nor would it need to. AA would now have a huge, far-less-competitive, connecting hub just down the road from NYC that could handle most of the connections, freeing AA's JFK (and LGA) operation to be more tailored and focused on O&D. AA has tons of JFK slots that could be very smartly deployed for this purpose, obviously with an emphasis on longhaul and transcon, and the combined AA also has tons of LGA slots that could be very smartly deployed for this same purpose on domestic flights. Unlike in the last few years, AA actually no longer needs a New York hub - the purpose it would have served is largely filled by PHL. What AA is now free to do in New York is return to its natural role as a strong O&D presence.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
I think with ORD they are either going to fight or flight, either refocus on rebuilding their competitive position or cut back to a focus city.

I don't expect ORD to go anywhere. This merger would give AA the opportunity - finally - to be freed of contractual restrictions that limited the ability to effectively serve the ORD market. Namely, I see plenty of A319s and 70-90-seat capacity flowing into ORD to 'rightsize' the hub, plus actually some additions in some markets where AA severely cut back (or ended altogether) service since 9/11 but where the 'new AA' would be a big player (markets like BUF, ALB, BDL, PVD, etc.). Plus, again, lots more capacity on ORD-DCA and ORD-PHL.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition.

Actually, AA is already - and still would be - #3 in New York metro, which is perfectly acceptable. Again - United and Delta need to be huge in New York because they need it as a hub. Both have other upper midwest alternatives (ORD, DTW, CLE), and United has IAD, but in both cases they are now using one or multiple New York airports as a prime connecting point in and out of the northeast, and across the Atlantic. AA no longer needs that - they've got it at PHL (and frankly, as operationally challenging as PHL is, it's certainly no worse than EWR/LGA/JFK, and I think it could be argued that in some ways it's actually better). So AA would now happily be able to focus their JFK/LGA schedules more towards O&D, and less towards connections, and let Delta and United duke it out for dominance.

[Edited 2012-04-21 07:51:34]
 
delta2ual
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Famous last words repeated in every airline merger.
From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
 
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STT757
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.
Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
At LGA, I don't know what a viable solution would look like - too bad USAirways gave most of their terminal to Delta, as that would have been a perfect location for the combined operation.

Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

MIA has two things going against it, high emplanement costs per passenger (highest in the Country?) and notorious Customs and Immigration processing. For leisure destinations like the Caribbean I definetly see CLT continuing it's prominent role. CLT's costs per passenger are significantly lower than MIA thus allowing to compete on price with the likes of B6, NK and eventually WN. Also the Customs and Immigration situation is a more "tranquil" experience than MIA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.

I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.
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commavia
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:29 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Seeing as it's New York, I am not holding my breath. Certainly - yes, if that were to occur, it would be great for all involved (most of all the passengers), but ten years is a loooooooong time in New York.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
MIA has two things going against it, high emplanement costs per passenger (highest in the Country?) and notorious Customs and Immigration processing. For leisure destinations like the Caribbean I definetly see CLT continuing it's prominent role. CLT's costs per passenger are significantly lower than MIA thus allowing to compete on price with the likes of B6, NK and eventually WN. Also the Customs and Immigration situation is a more "tranquil" experience than MIA.

I agree that CLT won't lose all or even most of its Caribbean service (much of which consists of weekend flying, anyway). There is a balance - no question. CLT is much lower-cost - no question. But, there is a countervailing argument that works to MIA's favor: MIA has dramatically more O&D, and, somewhat as a result, it also has substantially higher yields. So, what I think may occur - as you suggest - MIA is focused on O&D and higher-yielding connections, while CLT remains a lower-cost, but lower-yielding, connecting point primarily tailored to leisure travelers going to the islands. This should sound familiar - this is essentially the exact arrangement AA had with SJU and MIA, respectively, up until about five years ago.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.

I just don't see CLT staying a gateway to South America when there are other hubs with far more O&D and when MIA can replicate probably 3/4 or more of the connections CLT handles to/from GIG today - the vast majority of which are almost certainly coming from a short list of probably 15-20 big markets, all of which are likely served by AA over MIA.
 
aeroblogger
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:32 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
(in BOS I suspect AA would move to the current USAirways side of B).

In BOS, the plan was to build a connector between the 2 parts last time I checked...

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):

Sometime within the next ten years the Port Authority will have finally replaced the CTB at LGA, they are currently soliciting bids, at which point the combined AA would have the most space in the nicest Terminal at the airport.

Indeed. But there is more that goes into route planning decisions than how nice the terminal is.

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
According to an AP article --- Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

The announcement generally comes after all parties have agreed and all approvals have been granted.

And I don't forsee a complete shutdown of any hub - just some serious scaling back. Even the cities that get dehubbed will have a significant amount of service from the combined carrier.
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deltairlines
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:44 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

Agree completely. Your major markets to the Caribbean (SJU, STT, AUA, MBJ, CUN) will all stay in some way, shape or form. The cities that would most likely lose are the once-a-week flights, which US offers quite a few of out of CLT - it might make sense to run a couple of those for a few months out of the year, but I don't see them all sticking around. Most of the major markets can be run over Miami as it stands.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I doubt it. Charlotte is still - even now - a primarily domestic hub, and I don't foresee that changing, particularly when it comes to South America. In a merger scenario, I do not foresee CLT retaining any South America service, but especially not GIG - South America connections can easily and efficiently be handled through MIA which, unlike CLT, actually has some real O&D to the region.
Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
I can see the CLT-GIG flight changed to CLT-GRU, and Central America flights continuing from CLT for the same reasons as I mentioned about the Caribbean.

I just can't see Charlotte keeping South America service out of this. As it stands, US has a lot of connections to Orlando on that flight to help make it work - you can just as easily route those passengers over Miami in a combined carrier and save yourself from backhauling 1100 miles each way. If US gets a GRU authority, I agree with the post upthread saying you'd likely see it placed on ORD first.

As for other network, I'd bet heavily that the Republic E-170/175s would be in ORD very quickly, and you'd see a lot of those US stations in the Northeast having a second carrier to ORD now. AA doesn't serve MHT, PWM, BTV, PVD, etc., and has a token presence to ORD from cities such as BDL. All these cities are well represented by US Airways, and United has pulled back pretty significantly in many of these cities out of ORD. It'd be a very logical fit to quickly strengthen ORD's place in the network, as they will now have the right planes for it and the well-established stations out East.

LAX, I don't expect much to change. US isn't that big of a player there - something like 18 flights a day (5x PHL, 5x CLT, 8x PHX). I'm not sure how they'll fit them into Terminal 4 but I expect a pretty as-is situation there.

PHX will likely see some cuts, but not a ton - it's a convenient way to get into several smaller west coast communities that would be too long of a hop from DFW, and too hard to get into congested LAX. Cuts you'd see might be some pruning of east coast flying that could be done over DFW (and ORD).

DFW would stay mostly as-is. I wouldn't be shocked to see some cities get dropped (FAT is probably a better choice to put through PHX than DFW) but nothing drastic.
 
IADLHR
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:49 pm

If US leaves Star Alliance and joins Onewrold, how long will it take for US to extricate itself from Star and join Oneworld?

What is the procedure for this? Will US have to pay Star some fee?

For other reasons, I just dont see this US/AA merger happening. It is just my gut feeling.
 
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STT757
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 15):
but ten years is a loooooooong time in New York.

Probably closer to five.

Quoting IADLHR (Reply 18):
If US leaves Star Alliance and joins Onewrold, how long will it take for US to extricate itself from Star and join Oneworld?

It took CO about a year to leave Skyteam, and it didn't cost them anything.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Talaier
Posts: 119
Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 7:38 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:01 pm

I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now. JFK is a yield cash cow and I don't think that is going to change. JFK is indeed zero practical as a hub airport but there's only two ways of getting to NYC from the other side of the Atlantic and you just have to put up with it.

PHX might have a shot, but DFW is much more powerful and essentially does the same job. I wouldn't be on the operating being anything bigger than LAX (in terms of hubbing) in 2-3 years.

CLT is the only one I see surviving - and that's just because there's space to grow.

Since US Airways is going to get absorbed into the OW sphere, I'm not expecting any major changes to OW's strategy - only add ons. Overall the number of seats being offered on Europe-NA should come down.

It will be interesting where those 330s will end up though. I'm betting AA will swiftly move their 757s from European routes as soon as they have the chance and put 330s on them.
 
EricR
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:05 pm

I assume the combined airline would create a short term and long term plan for their hub / network structure.

Short term they will work on integration of ops at each hub and probably not make any significant changes. Longer term, they will look at how each hub performs and determine which stays and which goes. I do not believe they have will have a firm answer at the time of merger, but will wait to see how the combined network performs before making any changes.

With this said, the slot limitations of JFK during peak times severely hampers AA's ability to develop a full fledged hub at JFK. Slots may be available during other times of the day, but they are available for a reason - they are not optimal times.

Similarly, LAX's terminal constraints also limit LAX's ability to develop into a full fledged hub. Furthermore, it is an airport fragmented by 4 carriers.

It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
US's European network from PHL is already bigger than AA's from JFK.

PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

But it brings in much more domestic and international connecting traffic than JFK.
 
aeroblogger
Posts: 1380
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:22 pm

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now.

That is because they are left out of the JVs across the pond, and therefore have to charge lower rates than the cartels.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I assume the combined airline would create a short term and long term plan for their hub / network structure.

Short term they will work on integration of ops at each hub and probably not make any significant changes. Longer term, they will look at how each hub performs and determine which stays and which goes. I do not believe they have will have a firm answer at the time of merger, but will wait to see how the combined network performs before making any changes.

With this said, the slot limitations of JFK during peak times severely hampers AA's ability to develop a full fledged hub at JFK. Slots may be available during other times of the day, but they are available for a reason - they are not optimal times.

Similarly, LAX's terminal constraints also limit LAX's ability to develop into a full fledged hub. Furthermore, it is an airport fragmented by 4 carriers.

It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

I pretty much agree completely. LAX and JFK are just not markets which US/AA can "win" - their resources would be better utilized elsewhere. I expect ORD to stick around simply because there isn't another choice in the midwest, but it will probably be scaled down. PHX will probably grow, simply because that west coast capacity from LAX has to be moved somewhere...
Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
 
Squid
Posts: 192
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:37 pm

This is fun, so I will throw in my two cents.

Unlike the Delta/NWA merger, and the United/Continental merger, I don't think there will be as much shifting of the combined AA/US merger as far as the network goes. This is what I see happening over the first 24 months.

(1) JFK will still play a very important role because of British Airways and other One World partners. Because of PHL, JFK will focus more on O&D. I can see JFK staying pretty much the way it is right now, however I can see AA investing heavily in their trans-cons to increase their service in-flight as well as frequencies in order to recapture market share lost to Delta and United. The new management team may even keep 767's on the route rather than shift to 737's and A321's like AA is currently planning sense many of their high paying customers prefer wide-body's over small narrow bodies. AA will use mostly 777's and 787's out of JFK and may even launch flights to Asia with the new 787's as they come on-line.

(2) PHL - I can see a major investment over time into PHL with remodeling in order to make PHL competitive with EWR and Delta at JFK. I think AA will turn PHL into their major European gateway, launching many additional routes out of PHL, whereas JFK will focus on London. JFK will fly more 777's Trans-Atlantic, but PHL will get more 767's, 757's and the A330's. I don't believe they will fly to Asia out of PHL, or even much South America service leaving that to JFK and MIA.

(3) ORD will undergo a major expansion which will be supported by the additional cities that AA will gain from the US merger around the North East and South East. The new management team will double down on ORD and bring a fight to United. I also think that ORD may even get some additional Europe flying and possibly Asia flying when the 787's come on-line.

(4) MIA will continue to do what it is doing, which is primarily a Caribbean and Central/South American gateway. Because of CLT, MIA may have many banks re-timed to focus more on these connections and shift domestic connections through CLT.

(5) CLT will get a haircut similar to what Delta did to MSP. They may hang onto a London and Paris flight, but most passengers will be routed through PHL and JFK to Europe. Also many cities that are served with main-line flights will go to 70 seat regional AC. CLT will pay an important role, but mostly as a domestic connecting hub and provide feed into the AA network from the Southeast where AA really doesn't have much presence right now.

(6) DFW will GROW!!! And the new management team will focus on Mexico and Central America launching many new routes. The DFW metro-plex economy is on fire and the new management team is going to reassert themselves and push out Spirit.

(7) LAX will probably grow some. It's an important market, and I think that the US management team sees the bigger picture when it comes to AA's current Asia presence. because AA, unlike Delta and United, does not have a large network or an Asia hub in NRT or HKG, they will re-trench in LA in order to launch many new non-stop Trans-Pacific and South-Pacific flights with 787's to major markets.

(8) PHX will be the major looser in this merger. I think AA will keep a small hub/focus city there utilizing regional jets to small markets in the southwest that will then feed into main-line AA flights into PHX and then connect into other AA hubs. I think they will keep a few mainline non-hub flights to places like SFO, LAS, SEA and DIA, but for the most part, the mainline flights will be into LAX, DFW, PHL, JFK, and ORD. I do not believe PHX will get any international service other than to maybe a few Mexico destinations because O&D is vital. If AA makes a serious play for Asia, it will be through LAX, ORD, and JFK.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:04 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 16):
In BOS, the plan was to build a connector between the 2 parts last time I checked...

With the new American in oneworld, there is really no need to connect the two sides of B, nor for United to build out the AA side of B. I believe that with some creative shifting around the combined AA operations in BOS could all fit into the USAirways terminal. Given that, Massport's ongoing airline-terminal merry-go-round problems have just been solved: A is Delta, B-West is American, B-East is United, and C is JetBlue. Done and done.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
I just can't see Charlotte keeping South America service out of this. As it stands, US has a lot of connections to Orlando on that flight to help make it work - you can just as easily route those passengers over Miami in a combined carrier and save yourself from backhauling 1100 miles each way.

  

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
As for other network, I'd bet heavily that the Republic E-170/175s would be in ORD very quickly, and you'd see a lot of those US stations in the Northeast having a second carrier to ORD now. AA doesn't serve MHT, PWM, BTV, PVD, etc., and has a token presence to ORD from cities such as BDL. All these cities are well represented by US Airways, and United has pulled back pretty significantly in many of these cities out of ORD. It'd be a very logical fit to quickly strengthen ORD's place in the network, as they will now have the right planes for it and the well-established stations out East.

Exactly.

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
I don't see PHL surviving as a hub. Every single time I've booked a flight to the East Coast from Europe US always has the cheapest fare. And this has been ongoing for some years now.

I don't see why not. PHL is a very large population center, with a lot of O&D and business demand, and in a perfectly fine location to serve as a viable northeast hub. Is PHL as big a market as New York? No. But it's also not nearly as competitive, as USAirways today dominates the PHL market. Plus, there is only one airport in New York that can really ever serve as a true omnidirectional, domestic-and-international, multi-bank hub, and that's EWR. With that obviously taken, PHL is actually probably the next best bet for a northeast hub - better than any "split hub" concept between JFK/LGA, and probably just as good as IAD could ever be (IAD is less congested, but also serves a smaller/split market).

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
JFK is a yield cash cow and I don't think that is going to change. JFK is indeed zero practical as a hub airport but there's only two ways of getting to NYC from the other side of the Atlantic and you just have to put up with it.

Agreed - AA's operations in New York in general (and at JFK) generate some great yields and revenue, and that need not change. JFK and PHL can coexist together - it need not be one or the other.

Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
It will be interesting where those 330s will end up though. I'm betting AA will swiftly move their 757s from European routes as soon as they have the chance and put 330s on them.

I could envision a reshuffling where some of those A330s make their way onto denser Europe routes (JFK-FCO, MIA-BCN) and some of the South America flights (MIA-SCL, MIA-CNF, etc.).

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
It will be difficult for AA to become the dominant carrier at either LAX or JFK. Therefore, I can see both JFK & LAX reduced to just O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes.

Well what you've just described - "O&D focused travel with a few connections to provide feed for international routes" - is basically what AA has now at both LAX and JFK. And I agree that is perfectly fine. Continue to optimize both LAX and JFK primarily for O&D and international/longhaul and use alternative hubs to handle more of the connections.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
The dominance of the carrier in DFW, MIA, CLT, PHL, DCA would mean that these hubs are secure and should remain profitable.

Agreed.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
The wild cards are ORD and PHX. I still believe that a combined AA/US in PHX (combined market share approaching 50% w/ regionals) would reach the critical tipping point that would cause WN to reduce ops in PHX in favor of LAS & DEN.

Isn't USAirways already at that "tipping point" in PHX? It doesn't appear to have slowed Southwest down. I think with the right CASM PHX makes sense, but I doubt the mere fact of AA (which is today basically a bit player in PHX) and USAirways merging is going to lead Southwest to reduce operations in PHX. I can understand a prediction for future growth to be more focused on LAS and DEN, but I don't think Southwest is going anywhere in PHX.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Again - I think that ORD will likely remain basically exactly the same size it is today - and actually grow somewhat - in terms of frequencies. Where ORD will change will be in terms of capacity. AA has for years been hamstrung by a pilot contract that prevented it from economically operating the right aircraft to compete in the 3-way Chicago battle. Now, with access to the trove of large RJs that USAirways operates, AA finally would have an opportunity to right-size ORD capacity, and also grow into some new markets where the 'new American' has more critical mass than AA has today.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
I can see AA investing heavily in their trans-cons to increase their service in-flight as well as frequencies in order to recapture market share lost to Delta and United.

I don't disagree, except that AA hasn't really lose market share to Delta and United. AA (and Delta and United) have all lost market share to JetBlue and Virgin America.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
PHL - I can see a major investment over time into PHL with remodeling in order to make PHL competitive with EWR and Delta at JFK.

Agree. PHL is a viable hub, and AA has traditionally (may change, but I doubt it) prided itself on having fairly solid, high-quality facilities at its main hubs. PHL needs work - A-West is nice, but the rest of the terminal could use some refurbishment and optimization.

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):
I don't believe they will fly to Asia out of PHL

It may seem far-fetched, but down the line, I honestly don't think a JAL 787 PHL-NRT would be out of the picture. With BOS hours away from getting a NRT flight, PHL has got to now be one of the largest U.S. metro areas and air markets without a nonstop flight to Asia. USAirways failed multiple times, but with a oneworld hub at both ends, a joint AA/JL NRT flight could work.
 
UNITED777ORD
Posts: 254
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 12:54 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:12 pm

AA+US Hubs:
DFW- Largest hub with 750+ daily flights
CLT- 2nd largest hub with 475 flights
ORD- 3rd largest hub with 450 flights
PHL- 4th largest hub with 425 flights
MIA- 5th largest hub with 350 flights
PHX- 6th largest hub with 300 flights
LAX- 7th largest hub with 200 flights
JFK- 8th largest hub with 150 flights

AA+US Focus Cities
LGA
DCA
BOS
LAS
 
MAV88
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 12:30 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:36 pm

I wonder if there is a chance that a merged US and AA will lead to more European flying out of MIA. I am sure there are some holes to file in the MIA-Europe market. Maybe MAN, DUB, ATH, BRU for example?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24557
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:51 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 10):
AA/US will be 4th in NYC - B6, UA, and DL all are serious competition. I'm not saying that they are going to close JFK down or turn it into a 2x daily per hub spoke or something, but I certainly expect them to scale down JFK in favor of PHL.

AA is already larger than B6 in NYC based on FEB11-JAN12. So combining them will only build that lead stronger. To say that AA/US will leave it's number three position in NYC and number two (likely soon number one; it is very close behind UA) at LAX is ridiculous.
a.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:57 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
AA is already larger than B6 in NYC based on FEB11-JAN12. So combining them will only build that lead stronger. To say that AA/US will leave it's number three position in NYC and number two (likely soon number one; it is very close behind UA) at LAX is ridiculous.

  

A combined 'new AA' would be a solid #3 in the New York market, which is perfectly fine, and just where it would need to be, since it would no longer have the need for any New York airport - JFK or LGA - to serve as a major hub. Absent that need, their focus can shift from a mix of connections and O&D to a far heavier tilt towards O&D and only targeted connections, leaving the vast majority of the connecting traffic flows to move over PHL.

And as for LAX - absolutely. AA is already in such a great position at LAX, which this would only enhance and add to, that Parker would be absolutely insane to piss that away - which is why I doubt he would.
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:07 pm

Here we go.....again -_-

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I agree. Bye-bye to LAX. AA/US can never hold up to the UA and DL presence there. Sure, there will be some international routes, I clearly see that. But JFK as a "hub" will be considerably pared down IMO for the very same reasons. It is impossible to have all 3 legacies call both of those airports "hubs."

Quoting plateman (Reply 7):
Parker says no hubs would be closed in a US/AA merger

Oh they ALWAYS say that about every merger. Go ahead and talk to the good ol' folks out of STL, CVG, LAS, CLE, and MEM for me and see if they believe DP.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 17):
PHX will likely see some cuts, but not a ton - it's a convenient way to get into several smaller west coast communities that would be too long of a hop from DFW, and too hard to get into congested LAX. Cuts you'd see might be some pruning of east coast flying that could be done over DFW (and ORD).
Quoting Talaier (Reply 20):
PHX might have a shot, but DFW is much more powerful and essentially does the same job. I wouldn't be on the operating being anything bigger than LAX (in terms of hubbing) in 2-3 years.

ON THE CONTRARY: I have a bright future for PHX. Given all of what people have been saying about LAX, I highly doubt DP would want to close down his beloved Phoenix. I see DFW and PHX being strong hubs servicing different markets. DFW serving latin America, and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.) IMO these are strong alternatives to sending a bunch of nonsense to Los Angeles and DFW. The people in one of the nation's fastest growing metropolitan area wouldn't like that so much if that was to happen  
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24557
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:09 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 1):
I'd say goodbye to LAX, and JFK.

I agree. Bye-bye to LAX. AA/US can never hold up to the UA and DL presence there. Sure, there will be some international routes, I clearly see that. But JFK as a "hub" will be considerably pared down IMO for the very same reasons. It is impossible to have all 3 legacies call both of those airports "hubs."

What on earth are you talking about?!? A combined AA+US will be the single largest airline at LAX! AA as it stands alone is not much smaller than UA+CO.

LAX will grow, PHX will be hurt because of it. No need to compete with PHX and it's junk yields with LAX nearby. PHX could serve a purpose as a West connecting hub complimenting the capacity that LAX can't handle due to terminal limitations.

The merger hurts the little chance PHX-Asia has of happening. With LAX, US no longer needs PHX-Asia they way it does today.

[Edited 2012-04-21 12:12:40]
a.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:13 pm

Quoting Squid (Reply 23):

(5) CLT will get a haircut similar to what Delta did to MSP. They may hang onto a London and Paris flight, but most passengers will be routed through PHL and JFK to Europe. Also many cities that are served with main-line flights will go to 70 seat regional AC. CLT will pay an important role, but mostly as a domestic connecting hub and provide feed into the AA network from the Southeast where AA really doesn't have much presence right now.

The problem with CLT is that it would probably a unwise decision to give up the Piedmont Atlantic area all to DL. A lot of people are saying all of the Caribbean flying will go to MIA. I agree to some extant, but I believe in a merger, CLT will serve as a more leisure Caribbean hub, while MIA will handle markets such as PAP/KIN/CUR,etc.. For example, a family wants to go to SXM for a holiday trip. It's highly unlikely that US going to fly PWM-MIA, so they will be routed over CLT. I do think that CLT may lose it's GIG flight, but I think it will be replaced by GRU. CLT "may" keep a flight to LON and CDG? I'm sure CLT will keep a flight to LON,CDG,and FRA. CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun. MAD will probably stay too, because it is a OW hub. I can't see too many cities being switched to Express. I can actually see more cities being added in the midwest.

CLT is a growing metro area, and I doubt US will downsize here significantly. And before anyone says anything about the size of the CLT metro area, there are three major cities located less than 1.5 hours away from CLT that have large populations: GSO at about 270,000, CAE at about 130,000, Greenville/Spartanburg at about 95, 000. All of these cities have fairly large metro areas as well. CLT is a catchment area for these communities (even though they have their own airport), so if these communities were combined into the Metrolina area, the population would obviously increase.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
kamboi
Posts: 118
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2000 6:52 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:16 pm

What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?
 
ckfred
Posts: 4715
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:01 pm

[quote=kamboi,reply=32]What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

According to the agreements that US worked out with AA's unions, it will be American headquartered in the Metroplex.

I'm curious as to how US now admitting that it's trying to gain control of AA is playing out with US employees. Further, how is this playing with US employees at headquarters, since they would have to move to Texas.

Considering how much flak UA is now getting from the City of Houston for moving the headquarters of UA/CO to Chicago, how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:19 pm

Quoting kamboi (Reply 32):
What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

AA 100% for sure, as for the livery while I still love AA's current classic one, it might be time to refreshen it with a new image, plus with the airbuses coming in and the aforementioned issues about having them polished silver like the Boeing aircraft I could see a new livery potentially taking place. Maybe they could paint it metallic silver like NWA did. Will be interesting to see.

As far as hubs go, I dont see too many changes. Unlike DL which had some obvious overlap issues (CVG vs DTW & MEM vs ATL) and also UA (CLE vs ORD) AA and US's hubs have minimal overlap except for PHL & JFK and LAX and PHX but the plus side is as it is now the hubs work and serve different purposes, PHL is a NE megahub for domestic connections and Europe while JFK is more limited connections and more O&D focused. Same is kind of true in reverse for PHX and LAX. PHX is a true domestic connecting hub for intra mountain west and Mexico while LAX is more Asia/Pacific with limited connections as well. These hubs don't seem to go after the same flows as the DL and UA ones mentioned above.

CLT I think will be the true crown, it really would give AA a good sized hub in the southeast US which is a fast growing area and will be a good rival to DL at ATL. I would love to see some more midwestern cities like CID, PIA etc where AA has a good presence connected to CLT should a merger ensue. I think in retrospect AA has missed having a hub in that region since the closures of their dual southeast hub system at RDU and BNA.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:27 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
A lot of people are saying all of the Caribbean flying will go to MIA.

No one is saying that. Obviously the major trunk routes would remain, but the fact is that there would now be another connecting complex better-suited to serve many of these destinations from both a yield and geographical perspective. Additionally, either via this merger or AA emerging from BK, MIA will only be growing with the ability to use larger RJ's. Rationalization between the two will necessarily have to occur and I think a 'haircut' is probably the perfect word to describe it.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
I do think that CLT may lose it's GIG flight, but I think it will be replaced by GRU.

I'm sorry but if a GRU slot ever did become available, there are probably about a dozen other markets where AA could more profitably put it to use, namely ORD.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun.

You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
I can actually see more cities being added in the midwest.

DL struggles enough as it is with many ATL-Midwest routes, even with it's large market share through MSP/DTW/CVG, hard to see how CLT could be more successful in that respect.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
there are three major cities located less than 1.5 hours away from CLT that have large populations


...and I know a lot of people in the CLT area who also sometimes drive to these other cities to fly out of, the ultimate effect is pretty much neutralizing as far as traffic goes.
 
stlgph
Posts: 8986
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:31 pm

As reported on Friday, Philadelphia will take the largest hit. Charlotte will also be affected some.
The "hub" situation on the east coast will be dependent upon if the combined airline is forced to forfeit slots at DCA.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:40 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 33):
I'm curious as to how US now admitting that it's trying to gain control of AA is playing out with US employees. Further, how is this playing with US employees at headquarters, since they would have to move to Texas.

Considering how much flak UA is now getting from the City of Houston for moving the headquarters of UA/CO to Chicago, how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?

This combined airline would always have been branded 'American' - regardless of the circumstances - as the AA brand is substantially larger, older, and more recognized than USAirways. Plus, realistically, this merged carrier should and probably always would have been headquartered in Fort Worth. And, According to reporting in AvWeek, Parker & Co. acknowledged and accepted as much in their lobbying on Capitol Hill - that political fallout in Arizona was inevitable, but that the fallout was a price that had to be paid to get this done.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

CLT-Germany can definitely support at least one daily flight, even without the Lufthansa connections. There is a great deal of economic and cultural exchange between Germany and the Atlantic Southeast - lots of industrial and corporate connections, etc. A 'new AA' in oneworld, without the benefit of a Lufthansa partnership, should still be able to make a single daily CLT-FRA flight work. And, for the same reasons as above, Lufthansa may, too, maintain a single daily CLT-MUC flight.

Quoting stlgph (Reply 36):
As reported on Friday, Philadelphia will take the largest hit. Charlotte will also be affected some.
The "hub" situation on the east coast will be dependent upon if the combined airline is forced to forfeit slots at DCA.

"Reported" by who?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24557
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:41 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
Quoting USAirALB (Reply 31):
CLT-FRA carries more pax than CLT-LGW and I doubt the flight relies on LH connections. US isn't just adding a second A330 this summer for fun.

You can safely bet that it most certainly does rely upon both US and LH connections. I don't doubt one bit that the CLT-FRA market may be bigger than CLT-LON, but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

London is Charlotte's largest local market by far to Europe. And Munich is also a larger local market than Frankfurt from Charlotte.

Charlotte would absolutely lose GIG; and I doubt it will gain GRU, because that additional GRU frequency is better served from Chicago.

Charlotte-Rome is good as done, and moves to Miami. Dublin is probably done with, too, but I don't see that moving to Miami.

London, Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris are probably safe. And, of course, Lufthansa might very well leave CLT with no Star Alliance hub.

CLT simply will not win with this merge with regards to international flights. No current US hub will. Because what works from CLT, PHX and PHL works better from MIA, LAX and JFK, respectively.
a.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 6876
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
ON THE CONTRARY: I have a bright future for PHX. Given all of what people have been saying about LAX, I highly doubt DP would want to close down his beloved Phoenix. I see DFW and PHX being strong hubs servicing different markets. DFW serving latin America, and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.) IMO these are strong alternatives to sending a bunch of nonsense to Los Angeles and DFW. The people in one of the nation's fastest growing metropolitan area wouldn't like that so much if that was to happen

What are you basing this on aside from hometown optimism and other types of thoughts?

Look at Phoenix to cities up and down the West Coast and Rockies. There is nonstop competition from Southwest to SAN, SNA, ONT, BUR, LAX, SJC, SMF, OAK, SFO, PDX, SEA, RNO, LAS, SLC, GEG and BOI.

The cities that US flies to out west out of PHX with no WN service are PSP, FAT, MRY, BFL, SBA, SBP, TUS, FLG and YUM - all pretty much USX-only (PSP and TUS see some mainline but that's it). Basically, on the routes with strong O&D numbers, yields are trash, and there just isn't enough volume in those smaller markets (where yields are quite strong) to balance it out.

Not to mention, for flow traffic in the region between Dallas and Phoenix, there just isn't much - middle America is very spread out. Yes, you might see cities such as LBB and AMA get a couple of RJs to PHX, but nothing special. There's just not a ton of population centers between Dallas and Phoenix to rely on flow from the east to support a West Coast network.

The city of Phoenix won't be terribly hurt by the merger. US will still likely have around 220-225 daily flights out of there - a very large focus city. Southwest will still have almost 200 daily 737s taking off out of there. Delta and United will still have around 30 daily flights out of there. There will still be very ample service for a city of its size.

(and hopefully with the merger, we'd see Hawaiian and Alaska move to the Delta side of Terminal 3 and pretty much allow United to take over the south part of Terminal 3).
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:47 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

CLT has more connecting passengers than MIA does. It is about higher yielding connecting passengers from small and midsized communities that can flow over CLT but not MIA

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I don't expect ORD to go anywhere. This merger would give AA the opportunity - finally - to be freed of contractual restrictions that limited the ability to effectively serve the ORD market. Namely, I see plenty of A319s and 70-90-seat capacity flowing into ORD to 'rightsize' the hub,

100% correct, I agree.

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
I think AA will ultimately keep the ORD hub. However, I think the true question becomes how large of a hub it will be.

Why would it be smaller? US gives AA all sorts of "city presence" in cities in the NE, that only strengthens ORD. Plus US brings nothing in the midwest to replace ORD.
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
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US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:58 pm

I hope post-merger the livery changes. It's too 70s and I don't like old-fashion. Just personal opinions
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
Beeski
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 10:03 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting kamboi (Reply 32):
What name will survive AA or US? Will they have new livery or use one or the other depending on combined name?

American Airlines will be the name, no idea on livery.

Our foreign armchair CEO's need to understand the huge O&D at JFK, LAX and MIA.....those hubs will not be reduced...if anything, they will grow.

[Edited 2012-04-21 14:03:21]
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24557
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:07 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 40):
Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I generally agree that CLT and MIA are complimentary, but I would still expect some shifting of Caribbean capacity from CLT to MIA, which has vastly more O&D and which also can cater to connections from just about all the major U.S./Canadian markets that generate the vast majority of traffic to/from the Caribbean.

CLT has more connecting passengers than MIA does. It is about higher yielding connecting passengers from small and midsized communities that can flow over CLT but not MIA

You mean communities like Norfolk, Richmond, Charleston, Birmingham and Louisville? They all have non-stop service to MIA already.

Tiny communities like August, Charlottesville and Roanoke are not providing feed to the Caribbean that is significant.

Even so, AA having a Southeast hub gives AA more economies of scale presence in markets like AVL, ILM, etc., which can then have these markets support weekend service to MIA.
a.
 
Byrdluvs747
Posts: 2375
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:25 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:13 pm

It seems as though a number of people here are spouting nonsense about LAX going away, not knowing the role LAX truly serves. LAX isn't just a hub for AA, it feeds and is fed by Oneworld's large and growing presence. AA has nine OW partners and six non-alliance partners(seven if you count B6) feeding in and out of AA's system. PHX, with its lone BA flight, will never replicate that level of cooperation.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 19):
It took CO about a year to leave Skyteam, and it didn't cost them anything.

That was a special situation. If I remember correctly CO was allowed to leave once NW was acquired by DL thus negating the "golden share" . US may not have to pay a fee since a merger with AA will prevent it from remaining in Star. Otherwise, I believe there is a large fine and cant join another alliance for a year(or two).

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
and PHX serving the west coast/Asian routes (finally.)

Absolutely not going to happen. Out west, Asia traffic flows through LAX and SFO for all airlines. PHX has no ability to support O&D traffic when compared to LA. The large hispanic population(mainly mexican) translates into low demand for Asian travel. I don't care how much Dougie loves PHX, PHX will not see any Asian traffic. The economics and demographics won't work.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
DFW serving latin America,

 

DFW has always served as a multi-region(EU, Asia, americas) hub, not just latin america. Do you research anything before you post?


Quoting ckfred (Reply 33):
how is this going to play with the State of Arizona, the City of Phoenix, and the City of Tempe (where the HQ offices are located)?

They will just have to suck it up. The infrastructure located at DFW(Flagship U, SOC, maint.) dwarfs the Tempe HQ. In addition, its easier to move FA's, pilots, and plane to DFW as its more centrally located. PHX is too far west.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:14 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Well, US must disagree with you because from May 24th to October 26th, there will be two daily flights on CLT-FRA.

-US flight 704(A333) CLT-FRA departing 445pm
-US flight 706(A332) CLT-FRA departing 830pm

It says something that US takes the A332 from the CLTCDG route and swaps it with a B767 just for this flight.

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
CLT-Germany can definitely support at least one daily flight, even without the Lufthansa connections. There is a great deal of economic and cultural exchange between Germany and the Atlantic Southeast - lots of industrial and corporate connections, etc. A 'new AA' in oneworld, without the benefit of a Lufthansa partnership, should still be able to make a single daily CLT-FRA flight work. And, for the same reasons as above, Lufthansa may, too, maintain a single daily CLT-MUC flight.

Agreed. I think that LH will keep CLTMUC, but probably put a 333/343 on it year round. And if LH were to drop it, I'm willing to bet that AA/US would pick it up.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Charlotte would absolutely lose GIG

Absolutely.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Charlotte-Rome is good as done, and moves to Miami

Hmm..I seem to disagree. I wouldn't be surprised though it goes to a B767 and MIA gets a FCO flight as well. US does after all do this flight without onward connections in FCO.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Dublin is probably done with, too

Probably. But DUB is hard to tell, time shall see.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
Lufthansa might very well leave CLT with no Star Alliance hub.

See above.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 44):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
DFW serving latin America,



DFW has always served as a multi-region(EU, Asia, americas) hub, not just latin america. Do you research anything before you post?

Geez...why don't you just bite his head off

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 45):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 35):
but you're dreaming if you think it's large enough to support two dailies.

Well, US must disagree with you because from May 24th to October 26th, there will be two daily flights on CLT-FRA.

-US flight 704(A333) CLT-FRA departing 445pm
-US flight 706(A332) CLT-FRA departing 830pm

It says something that US takes the A332 from the CLTCDG route and swaps it with a B767 just for this flight.

That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:30 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 46):
That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?

I don't know what the PDEW is and frankly, could care less. I was just stating the fact that US is adding a second flight, and I believe that the carrier will continue to fly CLTFRA.

[Edited 2012-04-21 14:31:14]
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 47):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 46):
That they're adding a second flight is no real surprise, both CLT and FRA are large Star hubs. I've seen the numbers though, and US isn't even filling up the one flight now with just O&D so they're definitely not adding the second flight to satisfy local demand...I mean do you honestly think the PDEW on CLT-FRA is almost 500?

I don't know what the PDEW is and frankly, could care less. I was just stating the fact that US is adding a second flight, and I believe that the carrier will continue to fly CLTFRA.

Well then yes, I completely agree
 
jfk777
Posts: 5840
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

US/AA Potential Merger: Potential Hubs/Networks?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):

Call JFK a hub or not, it will be a very large part of a US/AA because of the presence AA has had in NYC. JFK generates lots of international traffic for AA to many destinations, this is part of the value in AA. Kill JFK and why bother buying AA.
I imagine JFK like PIT or BOS - some leftover legacy routes to cater to O&D. But connections would be routed through PHL, and a lot of flights would be cut.
Quoting seatback (Reply 5):
PHL doesn't bring in the premium that JFK does!

PHL and JFK do different fuctions and the 2 will continue to do what they currently do in a US/AA merger. PHL will be the major gateway to Europe and CLT will have some Europe and Latin America. PHL could gain flights to Brazil if things continue to expand there( merger or not).

JFK will be a big operation because its serves the biggest city in the USA, AA will keep and expand its international 777 & 787 ops there. This fiction that one or the other will not have a future in a merged airline is wrong, PHL wil continue because AA does not have the terminal space to absorb USair's PHL ops. BA may also move into AA's T8 so more moving into T8 on teh schedule already.

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