drmlnr1
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:41 pm

With the news this week that US wants to make a bid to buy AA out, I was wondering which alliance would the combined carrier be a member of. I'm thinking 1W will be the winner. What are your thoughts?
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LOWS
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:43 pm

Is there really any doubt that it would be OneWorld?
 
lhr380
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:44 pm

Easy! Oneworld. Its not been included in any of the JVs that its other star carriers are in so is kind of the left out kid at the side of the ball park.

Im pretty sure US would like what Oneworld offers? AA has the JBA with IB and AA on the TA routes, and has links with QF and JL for TP routes. All good things that US would come straight into should it be a America West / US kinda situation.
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drmlnr1
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:08 pm

I would think that *A would want the combined carrier badly. If *A would somehow sway the combined carrier over, that would destroy 1W and they would then become the biggest alliance of all.
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PHX787
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:08 pm

I don't know, I don't think OW really likes AA that much.

If DP is running, you gotta admit there's a fair chance it will stay with *A
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1337Delta764
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:20 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I don't know, I don't think OW really likes AA that much.

AA is one of the two leading carriers of OW, along with BA. OW would never want to see AA leave the the alliance.
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lhr380
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:22 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I don't know, I don't think OW really likes AA that much.

What?? AA is working very close with nearly all the major OW airlines. How can it not like them? Look at what it does with BA IB JL, it gives OW unrelenting access to the US domestic market
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CapEd388
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:26 pm

I think the combined carrier would go on to OW. AA is an anchor over at OW, they are one of the founding members and one of the leaders of that alliance. AA has strong ties to BA, IB and JL. Compare that to US at *A, they have always played second fiddle to UA. I feel that they are not really appreciated over at *A.

So the question becomes: Do they choose the alliance where they are a founding member and a strong leader or do they go over to the alliance where you are the underdog and considered the "smaller american carrier" (compared to UA)?

Also, being that Horton is the Chairman of OW, that might be another factor as to why they would choose OW.

I think things would be more balanced if the combined carrier went to OW. Sky would have Delta, OW would have the new American and Star would have United. Fair enough.

[Edited 2012-04-21 13:16:16]
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iFlyLOTs
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:38 pm

Would they even be allowed to look at *A or skyteam?
I feel that the U.S. government would have a big problem if they tried joining either of the other alliances.
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USAirALB
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:57 pm

Obviously oneworld. I doubt the current administration, or any for that matter would allow US to be in *.
I think Parker came out and said the new carrier would be in OW.

I'm willing to bet the website created for the merger is: oneworldoneairline.com
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drmlnr1
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:58 pm

I agree with both CapEd388 and iFlyLOTs.

Quoting CapEd388 (Reply 7):
I think things would be more balanced if the combined carrier went to OW. Sky would have Delta, OW would have the new American and Star would have United. Fair enough.

keep everything balanced

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 8):
I feel that the U.S. government would have a big problem if they tried joining either of the other alliances.

the justice dept would reject the deal immediately if AA/US went to sky or star.

1W has so much to offer US like established Joint Business Ventures with JL, QF, IB, BA. My guess is that US and 1W are in talks right now for them to join.
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CapEd388
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:12 pm

I think we might see a repetition UA/CO. As we saw, early on CO left Sky and jumped over to Star to be closer with UA, to make the transition smoother when they merged. We might see this again, with these two. US will probably leave Star and jump over to OW to get closer to AA that way when they merge the transition is smoother.


The UA/CO merger was a great example of choosing an alliance.

You had CO who was playing second fiddle to DL over at Sky. I even remember reading about how CO was having problems with Sky and some of the members. They did'nt seem to happy over at Sky and I bet they couldn't wait to leave. Then you had UA, who was a founding member and a strong leader over at Star. Which alliance did they choose? Star. It made more sense, since UA was already a strong, established and respected member of Star.

The AA/US deal is very similar. US is the the similar spot that CO was in and AA is in a similar position that UA was in.


On a side note: I read that some aviation experts are saying that a merger announcement could come as early as this coming Friday. I guess we'll see what happens....
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drmlnr1
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:24 pm

OW will retain AA. US probably will end up announcing they are leaving * for 1 by July 31.
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ckfred
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:28 pm

Here's the irony. AA and US were doing some cooperation back in the late 1990s, mostly with frequent-flyer programs. US and AA members could use miles to get free tickets on both airlines. Thus, an AA member in Chicago could fly to Myrtle Beach on US, changing planes at Charlotte. A US member at PIT could fly to NRT on AA, changing planes at ORD.

Even though US was never a member of oneworld, I think you could cash in US miles to fly on AA, and connect to AA codeshare flights for other carriers (CP, QF, BA, etc).

The proposed UA-US merger ended the arrangement, since US started codesharing with UA after the merger was nixed by regulators.

And frankly, if you were a member carrier of Star, would you want the combined AA-US carrier in your alliance?
 
lhr380
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 15):
Even though US was never a member of oneworld

They got VERY close, and I guess at the back of their minds they always regretted not going into it and picking star instead?
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drmlnr1
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:51 pm

When could we see US join 1W?
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planeguy727
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:08 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 15):

When they were cooperating in the 90s you could even combine miles from the two airlines for an award ticket. I combined AAdvantage and Dividend Miles for an award ticket.
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jumpjets
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:08 am

Also going back in time BA and US had close co-operation - so it could be full circle
 
chepos
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:03 am

The merged company would go to 1W. If AA left 1W it would be catastrophic to the alliance and honestly why would UAL want ths giant in the same alliance as them.AA and BA are BFF, BA is not about to let AA go anywere.
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Byrdluvs747
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:22 am

Quoting Drmlnr1 (Reply 17):
When could we see US join 1W?

I don't think any hard date can be established until a merger is actually agreed upon by creditors and the courts. If a merger were to happen today, then US could be in OW by mid June.
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vhtje
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:23 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I don't know, I don't think OW really likes AA that much.

If DP is running, you gotta admit there's a fair chance it will stay with *A

Really, how can you come out with such unsubstantiated nonsense? What possible evidence do you have to make such an outrageous claim? AA is one of the founding members of oneworld, and contributes greatly to the alliance.

Surely, it is AA's strong links with and the ATI/JV arrangements with its various alliance partners that make AA so attractive to US (along with the cheap price while in BK).
 
Bobloblaw
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:21 pm

Quoting Drmlnr1 (Thread starter):
With the news this week that US wants to make a bid to buy AA out, I was wondering which alliance would the combined carrier be a member of. I'm thinking 1W will be the winner. What are your thoughts?

I think that while technically that US would be buying AA, everything AA will be the surviving carrier with the exception of the top mgmt. They will be kicked to the curb and deservedly so.

AAdvantage
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Will all survive. US will go away and Dougie will meet his life long dream running AA. Only part of US that might survive is past multiple DUIs wont disqualify you from a position at AA, unlike now.
 
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:19 pm

Quoting chepos (Reply 20):
The merged company would go to 1W. If AA left 1W it would be catastrophic to the alliance and honestly why would UAL want ths giant in the same alliance as them.AA and BA are BFF, BA is not about to let AA go anywere.

Or for that matter, if you were AA, why would you want to be in the same alliance as UA? Take all of the feed you get from alliance partners, and then chop it in half. Sounds like a lose-lose proposition. There are a lot of complex decisions and choices in an AA/US merger, but alliance choice ain't one of them.
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tsnamm
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:28 pm

Quoting CapEd388 (Reply 12):
The AA/US deal is very similar. US is the the similar spot that CO was in and AA is in a similar position that UA was in.

Good comparison...US has been marginalized at Star with the merger of CO/UA... they may probably go to One World whether or not they merge with AA...if they do merge it is inevitable... as it has been pointed out even Parker has said as much, although its not on paper, so things can definitely change...
 
einsteinboricua
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:38 pm

While the prospect of having a balanced system with one US airline in each alliance is in the best interest of each alliance, I don't see how it's impossible for two airlines to be on the same alliance.

For starters, AA/US and UA can cooperate to counter DL and the new WN. Second, why do we cry foul when the idea of two US airlines in one alliance comes up, but not when two Chinese carriers (of relatively equal size) are on the same one as well? Third, though AA is a founding member of oneworld, you guys should remember what happened when AC acquired CP, and both were founding members of their respective alliances. There's no evidence to suggest that Doug Parker will opt to stay in *A or move to OW, but to flat out reject one or the other is simply speculation. Besides, since AA will be the acquired entity I don't think they are the one to dictate US's actions, even more so when all three unions support a US takeover. Another thing, members here say that the partnership between AA and BA is too important...what about US/LH? Why should one be more important than the other?
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HPRamper
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AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting tsnamm (Reply 25):
Good comparison...US has been marginalized at Star with the merger of CO/UA... they may probably go to One World whether or not they merge with AA...if they do merge it is inevitable... as it has been pointed out even Parker has said as much, although its not on paper, so things can definitely change...

Might US go to OW as a precursor to a merger, rather than after one?
 
DLD9S
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Sun Apr 22, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 26):
members here say that the partnership between AA and BA is too important...what about US/LH? Why should one be more important than the other?

BA/AA have antitrust immunity. US was not invited to the UA/LH/AC/CO/BD/SN antitrust party.
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iFlyLOTs
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:08 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 26):
Second, why do we cry foul when the idea of two US airlines in one alliance comes up, but not when two Chinese carriers (of relatively equal size) are on the same one as well?

We don't cry foul, but the DOJ does...

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 26):
Third, though AA is a founding member of oneworld, you guys should remember what happened when AC acquired CP, and both were founding members of their respective alliances.

But US isn't a founding member of *A, they didn't join until 2004, *A was formed in 1997.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 26):
Another thing, members here say that the partnership between AA and BA is too important...what about US/LH? Why should one be more important than the other?

Like stated earlier, there is no JV between LH and US, so why stay with LH when they could essentially buy their way into the AA/IB/BA JV?
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nomorerjs
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:51 am

Oneworld is the only choice. Name will be AA. HQ will be DFW. And, yes, ORD will survive (this forum thinks ORD has the O&D and connection traffic of McAllen, TX (no offense to McAllen, but this forum just hates ORD).
 
CapEd388
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 31):

Hey! Im from McAllen, I take offense to that.....lmao jk, I know what you mean.

Why do you think people in this forum hate ORD?
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HPRamper
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:29 am

I don't think anyone here hates ORD. I do think that many have the impression that AA is and has been losing the battle at ORD to UA and some of those don't think it's really worth fighting over.
 
kordcj
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:09 am

Are you guys 100% positive that the DoJ approves who joins what alliance? I know they have to approve code shares and JVs with foreign carriers, but I don't recall the DoJ telling the airlines what alliance they are allowed to be a part of. And not to mention that even after the UA/CO merger, the PMUA/US code share agreement is still alive and well.
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iFlyLOTs
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:24 am

Quoting kordcj (Reply 34):
I know they have to approve code shares and JVs with foreign carriers, but I don't recall the DoJ telling the airlines what alliance they are allowed to be a part of.

Isn't an airline alliance basically a larger, more comprehensive code share?
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kgaiflyer
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:58 pm

Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.
 
Mcmax
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 1:52 am

Sorry to post to an older thread, today's Wall Street Journal has an article which talks about US' management presentation to its union regarding the benefits of a potential merger. Can't post the link, but do a Google search for "US Airways Makes Push for Potential Merger" and the article will pop up.

What I find significant is this quote from the fourth paragraph of the article:

"It focused instead of how the complementary route networks of US Airways and American would lift the combined airline to No. 1 in the East and Central U.S. regions by domestic passenger revenue, from American's current fifth place in the East and fourth in the Midwest. The presentation said the merger would create new route opportunities, eliminate the size gap to United and Delta, help attract more corporate and elite fliers and bolster the prospects for Oneworld, American's global marketing group. US Airways has said a merger would generate at least $1.2 billion in annual revenue gains and cost-savings, even with the contract terms it envisioned for employees."

Note that Doug Parker, US CEO, is stating a combined US/AA would remain in oneworld. (At least that is a relief.)
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HPRamper
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 2:49 am

Has there been any recent news on this subject? Things seemed to really slow down after a week or so of flurried activity.
 
TSS
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 3:12 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 27):
Might US go to OW as a precursor to a merger, rather than after one?

I stated in several other threads that I wouldn't take the US/AA merger rumors seriously until US left Star for OneWorld. I didn't count on Mr. Parker making an offer directly to AA's unions, though.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 36):
Way before the CO/UA merger was ever consummated, dozens of a.netters had tried their hand at photo-shopped, proposed post-merger liveries.

I'm surprised that hasn't been done with this merger.

I'm surprised by that as well. I can only guess that most A-netters don't have the emotional investment in the liveries of AA and US that they did in the former liveries of UA and CO.
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chepos
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 3:23 am

Quoting TSS (Reply 39):
Quoting TSS (Reply 39):
I'm surprised by that as well. I can only guess that most A-netters don't have the emotional investment in the liveries of AA and US that they did in the former liveries of UA and CO

Maybe not on Anet but I have seen plenty of proposed livery renditions on different sites.

I know USAPA and APA (AA) met in CLT to discuss integration and other contract isues if th merger comes to fruition this past Monday. I believe they were to meet again today. I know they also sent a no confidence petition out expressing tehir distrust on the AA standalone plan.

Regards,

Chepos

[
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 4:14 am

Quoting kordcj (Reply 34):
Are you guys 100% positive that the DoJ approves who joins what alliance? I know they have to approve code shares and JVs with foreign carriers, but I don't recall the DoJ telling the airlines what alliance they are allowed to be a part of. And not to mention that even after the UA/CO merger, the PMUA/US code share agreement is still alive and well.

The DOJ can deny alliance membership if it creates excessive dominance in a particular region. Which is why you would never see AA(ATI with BA) join the same alliance as DL(ATI with AF).
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bobnwa
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 12:04 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I don't know, I don't think OW really likes AA that much.

What possible info do you have, that would result in that statement? AA and BA are OW not just members
 
PRAirbus
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 4:20 pm

If USAirways buys AA or if AMR Management agrees to a USAirways merger; I should say...oneworld will most likely be their alliance of choice. AA is a oneworld founding member why would they migrate????
 
Rdh3e
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting CapEd388 (Reply 7):
So the question becomes: Do they choose the alliance where they are a founding member and a strong leader or do they go over to the alliance where you are the underdog and considered the "smaller american carrier" (compared to UA)?

Just FYI, they'd be bigger than UA after a US/AA merger, so they wouldn't be the "underdog" or "second fiddle"
 
Viscount724
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 19):
Also going back in time BA and US had close co-operation - so it could be full circle

Including 3 US 762s painted in BA livery for jointly-operated services.


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tommy767
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 10:05 pm

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 2):
Easy! Oneworld. Its not been included in any of the JVs that its other star carriers are in so is kind of the left out kid at the side of the ball park.

Just like how CO was in skyteam

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 9):
Obviously oneworld. I doubt the current administration, or any for that matter would allow US to be in *.

the jv partnership between AA and BA is too valuable for the merged AA and US to pass up.

Quoting CapEd388 (Reply 12):
I think we might see a repetition UA/CO. As we saw, early on CO left Sky and jumped over to Star to be closer with UA, to make the transition smoother when they merged. We might see this again, with these two. US will probably leave Star and jump over to OW to get closer to AA that way when they merge the transition is smoother.

I think USAirways will be a little more aggressive than Continental was in 2008/2009
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BigOrange
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RE: AA/US - Which Possible Alliance After Merger Or Buyout?

Thu May 03, 2012 10:52 pm

I think they'll stick with OneWorld. US are the poor boy in Star Alliance with a lot of codeshare flights not being allowed on corporate contracts.

I hope if it does happen they keep the things that worked with AA like corporate discounts which US don't give unless they get 100% of the traffic.

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