n7371f
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ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:38 am

ANA has loaded its Narita-Seattle/Tacoma service into the computer systems:

NH1078 NRT1725 – 1055SEA 77W D
NH1077 SEA1315 – 1545+1NRT 77W D

Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service before it goes to 787-8 sometime later on.

But the biggest interest to me is how NH's schedule compares to UA:

UA876 NRT1655 – 0937SEA 777 D
UA875 SEA1309 – 1510+1NRT 777 D

Can we expect UA to quietly pull the SEA route soon? You'll have (2) Star Alliance members basically flying wingtip-to-wingtip. Maybe it depends on UA's corporate contracts (Microsoft, Amazon, etc...). Just questioning the rationale of these many seats suddenly on SEA-NRT on Star Alliance.
 
MAH4546
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:53 am

UA and NH have metal neutrality. They split revenue on this route. It's no different than UA having two daily flights. Weird they both have similar schedules, because they coordinate schedules.
a.
 
working2gether
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:01 am

This is very similar to NH and UA at IAD. Both have daily 777 flights (NH 77W and UA 772ER) and as far as I know the flight loads on both flights are up in the 90%. I think ANA attracts more business and Japanese nationals while tourists and Americans stick to UA but that's just at IAD.

So I would think that UA would not pull out and stay put and see how the flight loads do with the added ANA flights
 
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RWA380
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:18 am

Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):
NH1078 NRT1725 – 1055SEA 77W D
NH1077 SEA1315 – 1545+1NRT 77W D

Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service before it goes to 787-8 sometime later on.

But the biggest interest to me is how NH's schedule compares to UA:

UA876 NRT1655 – 0937SEA 777 D
UA875 SEA1309 – 1510+1NRT 777 D

A very common time frame for flights from Asia to the West Coast, I don't see the route being able to give good yields with 3 carriers, I know NW/DL have had this route for a very long time, UA not as long, since 81-83 IIRC, It was UA's first trans pacific route, along with PDX-NRT. But JL, CO, AA and even TG have flown this route at one point or another and didn't stay. I expect UA to drop the route in the future and use the 777 some place else, at that point I'd expect any OO flying for UA in the NW, not to the NW, but in the NW, will end as well, UA has little apparent interest with this region of the country.
They have all but stopped West Coast flying, and ended any flights other than hub flying, many years ago.
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MAH4546
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:26 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):
A very common time frame for flights from Asia to the West Coast, I don't see the route being able to give good yields with 3 carriers,

The route has two carriers - UA and NH are merged trans-Pacific, the new ANA flight does not change the competitiveness of this route for a number stand point.

It will have three carriers when JAL/AA inevitably enter the market.
a.
 
Gabrielz
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:39 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):

I dont think you have the full picture.

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide.

They include Boeing, Microsoft and Toyota, just to name a few. They are not going anywhere in this market, I suspect.

-G
 
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RWA380
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 6:17 am

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 5):

I dont think you have the full picture.

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide

I get it, I have negotiated contracts with airlines for corporations like Siemens, Ricoh and Wells Fargo. It doesn't mean UA flight numbers can't be flown on NH metal, as others have posted in this thread, UA & NH are metal neutral, contracts for companies that size would have clauses that allow travel on a partner as close as UA/NH.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
The route has two carriers - UA and NH are merged trans-Pacific, the new ANA flight does not change the competitiveness of this route for a number stand point.

It will have three carriers when JAL/AA inevitably enter the market.

Of course it changes the numbers, a whole 777 worth of seats, where there were two flights, now there are three, about 50% more seats to fill on a daily basis. JL & AA have been here before and left, why would they enter an already now saturated market. This isn't LAX or SFO, SEA has a finite number of passengers flying the route daily. Even PDX has a flight to NRT on DL, who has a mileage arrangement with AS, the largest frequent flyer base in the NW, not UA, which is why UA has OO operating flights up to SEA to connect onto NRT and those connecting points beyond NRT. Otherwise they would route everyone via SFO instead.
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ha763
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:40 am

Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):
Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service

It is a 777-200ER. ANA does not have any 777-300ERs in a 2 class configuration. Plus, the ANA website says 777, which means 777-200ER.
 
PHX787
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:50 am

How many flights does DL have out of SEA to Japan? I could be expecting them to pull down service instead, but I gotta see what kind of service they have first.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
Sean-SAN-
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:54 am

Quoting ha763 (Reply 7):

It's actually a 773ER, F will be sold as C until the 787 takes over.
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:11 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 8):
How many flights does DL have out of SEA to Japan? I could be expecting them to pull down service instead, but I gotta see what kind of service they have first.

In the summer, it's 2x daily SEA-NRT and 1x daily SEA-KIX. They'll pull down in the face of an increased *A presence when hell freezes over--they've (via NW) had a strong presence in the Seattle-Asia market for decades and with all the feed they get from AS there, I'd wager they have the upper hand. If anyone drops out of SEA-Japan here, it's going to be UA.
 
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RWA380
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:34 am

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 10):
In the summer, it's 2x daily SEA-NRT and 1x daily SEA-KIX. They'll pull down in the face of an increased *A presence when hell freezes over--they've (via NW) had a strong presence in the Seattle-Asia market for decades and with all the feed they get from AS there, I'd wager they have the upper hand. If anyone drops out of SEA-Japan here, it's going to be UA.

  

Pretty much what I've been trying to say in this thread, I can't see UA keeping SEA-NRT with the NH presence. believe me most frequent travellers will be more excited to fly an NH 787 vs a UA 777 in any cabin. I fully see this move as a change from UA to NH on this route. *A doesn't need two SEA-NRT daily flights, when O/W doesn't have even one. NW/DL pioneered this route, DL will dig in to remain dominant at SEA for the same reasons you stated, their huge AS dedicated, loyal frequent fliers. I know many AS travellers that always take DL when AS doesn't fly there, much less on AA due to their limited options from the NW.
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warreng24
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:41 pm

I sincerely believe that UA will either:

1) Drop with route

-or-

2) Downgrade to a smaller 2-class aircraft (either a PMCO 764 or one of the new 2-class 763's).

Over on FlyerTalk, SEA-NRT-SEA is known as one of the easiest TPAC flights to upgrade.

Premium cabin on this route is relatively lite.

Keep in mind this is just a snapshot of UA875:
4/25 - Booked 4/11 in F, 20/49 in C
4/26 - Booked 2/7 in F, 14/40 in C
4/27 - Booked 1/7 in F, 21/40 in C

[Edited 2012-04-25 05:43:52]
 
Tdan
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:18 pm

It would make the most sense for NH to operate this route in a metal neutrality world since it is the only 777 flight of the day for UA out of SEA. There is likely a lot of cost that can be saved between the two airlines with NH on the route instead of UA. Additionally, UA can redeploy the 777 unit elsewhere in the system, possibly helping with the 762 retirements and 763 ghetto bird refurbishment.

Again, this only works in a metal neutral, revenue sharing environment. An airline would never drop a profitable route for an alliance partner to fly without getting a piece of the segment revenue.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
SANFan
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:42 pm

Perhaps I missed it but do we have a start date for the NH service?

bb
 
joeljack
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
UA and NH have metal neutrality. They split revenue on this route. It's no different than UA having two daily flights. Weird they both have similar schedules, because they coordinate schedules.

They are not metal neutral. You don't get United Million Miler Miles Flying on LH or NH etc. Loyal UA fliers stick to UA metal for this fact. If they are truly revenue sharing across the pacific and atlantic, UA needs to make the revenue sharing flights eligible for Million Miler Status Miles. Then I have no problem with ANA taking over any UA flights or vice versa.
 
roseflyer
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:12 pm

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 5):

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide.

They include Boeing, Microsoft and Toyota, just to name a few. They are not going anywhere in this market, I suspect.

Boeing and Microsoft are the two biggest white collar employers in Seattle and neither of them have exclusive contracts with airlines. They drive traffic, but both companies will choose best available fare through their internal travel agencies. The days of exclusive deals are over. I'd expecct DL to get more of the Boeing/Microsoft business anyway since neither company flies employees in First Class other than executives.

ANA will add more seats which is more competition. In the winter 1 777 and 1 A330 is adequate, but DL typically increases frequency in the summer. ANA looks to be trying to take some of this extra traffic.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
Flighty
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting joeljack (Reply 15):
They are not metal neutral. You don't get United Million Miler Miles Flying on LH or NH etc. Loyal UA fliers stick to UA metal for this fact. If they are truly revenue sharing across the pacific and atlantic, UA needs to make the revenue sharing flights eligible for Million Miler Status Miles. Then I have no problem with ANA taking over any UA flights or vice versa.

It's not worth scheduling widebody airplanes for those few people.
 
EyeSky
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
Perhaps I missed it but do we have a start date for the NH service?



Service is set to begin on 07/25. They will start with a T73ER and change to an 87 later in the year.

Check out this link: http://www.portseattle.org/Newsroom/...s/Pages/default.aspx?year=2012#277
 
flySFO
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:59 pm

Any news on the SJC schedule?
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting flySFO (Reply 19):
Any news on the SJC schedule?

Last I heard it will start February or March of 2013 when they get enough 787s. I'm not yet hearing that ANA will also start it earlier, using 777s or even 767s in the interim.
 
SESGDL
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):

Can we expect UA to quietly pull the SEA route soon? You'll have (2) Star Alliance members basically flying wingtip-to-wingtip. Maybe it depends on UA's corporate contracts (Microsoft, Amazon, etc...). Just questioning the rationale of these many seats suddenly on SEA-NRT on Star Alliance.

I think it's almost inevitable that UA will discontinue operating its own metal on SEA-NRT. With NH starting with so much additional capacity, and the flight not fitting UA's model of operating international flights exclusively from hubs, I simply don't see the route sticking around with two daily flights. Service may continue throughout the summer, however, and be "rightsized" in the fall.

Jeremy
 
irelayer
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:43 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
Boeing and Microsoft are the two biggest white collar employers in Seattle and neither of them have exclusive contracts with airlines. They drive traffic, but both companies will choose best available fare through their internal travel agencies. The days of exclusive deals are over. I'd expecct DL to get more of the Boeing/Microsoft business anyway since neither company flies employees in First Class other than executives.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.

-IR
 
sxf24
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:11 am

Quoting irelayer (Reply 22):
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.

Well, Boeing defense folks can fly Delta out of SEA. DL gets a much, much larger share of Boeing traffic than UA anyways.
 
YULWinterSkies
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:16 am

Quoting Tdan (Reply 13):
It would make the most sense for NH to operate this route in a metal neutrality world since it is the only 777 flight of the day for UA out of SEA. There is likely a lot of cost that can be saved between the two airlines with NH on the route instead of UA. Additionally, UA can redeploy the 777 unit elsewhere in the system, possibly helping with the 762 retirements and 763 ghetto bird refurbishment.

Again, this only works in a metal neutral, revenue sharing environment. An airline would never drop a profitable route for an alliance partner to fly without getting a piece of the segment revenue.

I doubt this a/c is based in SEA. Rather, I'd wild guess that it triangles from one of the hubs (ORD? SFO? to NRT then SEA then NRT then back to the base hub over the course of a little more than 2 days.
When I doubt... go running!
 
wedgetail737
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:31 am

Quoting irelayer (Reply 22):
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.
Quoting sxf24 (Reply 23):
Well, Boeing defense folks can fly Delta out of SEA. DL gets a much, much larger share of Boeing traffic than UA anyways.

The Boeing Defense is really not that big at Puget Sound compared to the Commercial side of the business. However for many of the Boeing Defense really don't have a choice because of the Fly America Act.

With a lot of work performed by the Heavy Industries in Japan, I think the Boeing Commercial folks will take advantage of flying on an international carrier over US carriers. I think NH will do well here in SEA.
 
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Stitch
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:33 am

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 24):
I doubt this a/c is based in SEA. Rather, I'd wild guess that it triangles from one of the hubs (ORD? SFO? to NRT then SEA then NRT then back to the base hub over the course of a little more than 2 days.

I've heard it has been ORD-SEA-NRT-SEA-DEN-ORD as well as SEA-NRT-SEA.
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:38 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 25):
With a lot of work performed by the Heavy Industries in Japan, I think the Boeing Commercial folks will take advantage of flying on an international carrier over US carriers. I think NH will do well here in SEA.

With NH being such a big Boeing customer, they're sure to pick up some of the SEA-Japan business traffic from BCA. As you said, defense isn't that big here in SEA and aside from the handful of defense programs relevant to Japan, I'm not sure there's much Boeing defense traffic heading to Japan anyways...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I've heard it has been ORD-SEA-NRT-SEA-DEN-ORD as well as SEA-NRT-SEA.

It used to run something like that, but it's been a few years since we've seen the 777 running domestic flights out of SEA with UA. I'm fairly confident the SEA flights only run between SEA and NRT with the aircraft rotating out of NRT to UA's larger bases.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:07 am

I was just browsing the ANA website and the new flights have not been loaded to the website yet. It still calls out the UA flights.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:40 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 27):
With NH being such a big Boeing customer, they're sure to pick up some of the SEA-Japan business traffic from BCA.

Actually my experience is that it doesn't matter. For one, "Boeing Travel" has been outsourced (which has likely cost Boeing far more money than it saved, but that's another story). Secondly, officially you are supposed to go with the cheapest fare that meets business needs. So in theory, if you were flying someplace and B6 (all A320 customer) were cheaper than AS (loyal all-Boeing customer) then you'd have to fly B6. I think it's silly too. They should make you fly the Boeing customers first, but that's not the way it works.

Back when AA cared about SEA, they really went after Boeing business travel. AA would upgrade Boeing people to First Class if they were booked in Business Class. Officially, it was only for the SEA-NRT 777 flight, but AA did it for me several times on SJC-NRT and several flights to Europe (e.g. a JFK-LHR leg, or BRU-ORD back when the 767s were 3-class). The individuals at AA made it very clear that they valued my business travel with them too.

Having said that, NH is a great loyal Boeing customer (and good customer to work with) so I do hope they are very successful on their SEA-NRT and SJC-NRT flights. I just wish they were partners with AS.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:44 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 29):
Having said that, NH is a great loyal Boeing customer (and good customer to work with) so I do hope they are very successful on their SEA-NRT and SJC-NRT flights. I just wish they were partners with AS.

There is nothing says they can't be partners, but I'm sure DL would have something to say about that.
 
commavia
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Fri Apr 27, 2012 1:11 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
It will have three carriers when JAL/AA inevitably enter the market.

I still think a JAL 787 would make sense in this market. It's a relatively small aircraft, with lower operating costs, and would give AA/JAL their best possible platform for reentering this market for the first time in a decade. The SEA-NRT market is simply too large in the broader context of U.S.-Asia for the AA/JAL JV to not cover eventually. I hope it happens.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 21):
I think it's almost inevitable that UA will discontinue operating its own metal on SEA-NRT. With NH starting with so much additional capacity, and the flight not fitting UA's model of operating international flights exclusively from hubs, I simply don't see the route sticking around with two daily flights. Service may continue throughout the summer, however, and be "rightsized" in the fall.

  

Agreed - United and ANA don't need that much joint capacity in the SEA-NRT market.

Quoting irelayer (Reply 22):
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.

As others have said, most of Boeing's defense business is not in Seattle, it's in St. Louis (former Macair). And regardless, what defense business there is in Seattle would see no major change if United ended its existing SEA-NRT flight - United will obviously codeshare on ANA's flight either way, and Fly America permits travel on foreign flag airlines as long as the ticket is booked as a U.S. airline codeshare flight.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Fri Apr 27, 2012 7:20 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 30):
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 29):
Having said that, NH is a great loyal Boeing customer (and good customer to work with) so I do hope they are very successful on their SEA-NRT and SJC-NRT flights. I just wish they were partners with AS.

There is nothing says they can't be partners, but I'm sure DL would have something to say about that.

It would also require AS to have their first Star Alliance partner. Since AS is the code-share wh*re of aviation, I don't know of any rule preventing them from doing so. I'm sure it would benefit LH's SEA flight too if they could pick up more AS/QX connections.

Apparently HU approached AS about a partnership when they started PEK-SEA but nothing came of it. As you allude to, DL probably wouldn't have like that since they do the same route also.

I was more hoping that any new SJC-NRT flight would partner with AS to gain some more connecting traffic and the ability to use AS's expanding SJC FF base. (Plus I could try it some time and credit it to my AS account   )

Do anyone know what, if any, restriction AS has against forming a partnership with NH or any other Star member? Is it just their own strategic choice?
 
AS739BSI
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Fri Apr 27, 2012 8:53 pm

AS won't code share with *a given that DL has the NRT connection and they are entering USAir hubs such as PHL.
 
warreng24
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RE: ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?

Wed May 02, 2012 3:38 pm

Amazing that the code-shares are being loaded...

UA875 Dep 1309 Arr 1510 Dur 10h1m Equp 772 (UA Metal)
NH7031 Dep 1309 Arr 1510 Dur 10h1m Equp 772 (UA Metal)

UA9669 Dep 1315 Arr 1545 Dur 10h30m Equp 77W (NH Metal)
NH1077 Dep 1315 Arr 1545 Dur 10h30m Equp 77W (NH Metal)

This is going to be an amazing amount of capacity. I sincerely hope that UA brings additional capacity on the other routes out of SEA. That will help bring more connecting passengers.

Latest rumor from PMUA (and PMCO) staff at SEA is that the move to the A concourse later this year will bring a new United Club and a new United International First Lounge in the former Admiral's Club and SkyClub spaces. If the IFL rumor is true (which I doubt), this will really boost the odds that UA keeps 3-class service in SEA.