fraport
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Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 12:33 pm

After having reduced their order for 25 A350-1000s by 6 just a few months ago, Etihad now drops another 7 aircraft. That leaves just 12 planes of the largest A350 for them.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...-eads-airbus-idUSLNE84601A20120507

May this be a result of the changes Airbus did to the A351, which earned a lot of criticism especially from the gulf airlines?
 
sweair
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 12:56 pm

Seems like its the A359 that is the most popular model, the smaller 358 has had a few cancellations too, maybe its the 777X that throws a monkey wrench for Airbus to sell its top model in large numbers.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:07 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 1):
Seems like its the A359 that is the most popular model, the smaller 358 has had a few cancellations too, maybe its the 777X that throws a monkey wrench for Airbus to sell its top model in large numbers.

OH I'm sure Boeing executives are on their way to the U.A.E right now, probably with a nice proposal..
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:13 pm

I wonder about the timing: why now?

I wonder if their contract had a clause allowing them an easy way out if they did it by a certain time?

It's interesting that the reporter chose to mention that there have been no new -1000 orders since A announced the changes to the -1000.

Personally I think it's just coincidence, but of course it'd be nice if the order book was growing rather than shrinking.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:17 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
OH I'm sure Boeing executives are on their way to the U.A.E right now, probably with a nice proposal..

Highly doubtful since they dont have authorization from the Board to sell the 777X. That's going to come at the end of this year and the flodgte of orders for the 77X will open up in 2013-2014. Ethiad is gearing up to order the palne next year but they want to dump the A350 first. I expect EK and QR to follow suit. I am sure Ethiad has had a presentation on the 777X and the proposed capabilities. I'd say the're salivating at the prospect of gettng this airplane.

[Edited 2012-05-07 06:31:35]
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:25 pm

"The A350-1000 is consistently more capable than the (Boeing) 777-300ER. It will cover the world with 25 percent less fuel burn," an Airbus spokesman said.

I find that interestingly amusing... If that were true, Boeing wouldn't sell record numbers of the 77W's,and Boeing wouldn't be toying around with the 77X, rather we would see another 7E7 on the table...
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:31 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 5):
I find that interestingly amusing... If that were true, Boeing wouldn't sell record numbers of the 77W's,and Boeing wouldn't be toying around with the 77X, rather we would see another 7E7 on the table...

The answer is in when you can get an A350-1000. You can't make money without the tool.
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NYC777
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:32 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 6):
The answer is in when you can get an A350-1000. You can't make money without the tool.

Well now it seems you can get an A350-1000 a lot sooner.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:36 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 5):
"The A350-1000 is consistently more capable than the (Boeing) 777-300ER. It will cover the world with 25 percent less fuel burn," an Airbus spokesman said

I do think it is strange that the NEO and MAX can sell so well on claims like this, but a plane like the A351 seems to be struggling. Not to ignite an A vs. B argument, but what is it about this plane that airlines seem to dislike at the moment? Some on this site boast about how much more efficient the 351 will be over the 77W and even the 77X, yet airlines are not lining up to buy it. What gives?
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:43 pm

Quoting msp747 (Reply 8):
I do think it is strange that the NEO and MAX can sell so well on claims like this, but a plane like the A351 seems to be struggling.

I believe it has to do with modifying an existing known design vs a completely new design that allows this to factor in.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:44 pm

Quoting msp747 (Reply 8):
I do think it is strange that the NEO and MAX can sell so well on claims like this, but a plane like the A351 seems to be struggling. Not to ignite an A vs. B argument, but what is it about this plane that airlines seem to dislike at the moment?

It suggests to me that the Airbus figures are extremely optimistic, to the extent that the airlines just don't believe them. And EIS is still almost a decade away, allowing for some slight delays. Why commit now when you can wait and see what happens with the 777X, 787, A380 and the industry in general. It would be strange if lots of airlines were ordering lots of planes now, for a plane not due for at least 7-8 years. We can expect the orders to ramp up in 3-5 years time IMO.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 7):
Well now it seems you can get an A350-1000 a lot sooner.

Moving up 7 slots isn't much when you need to wait 6+ years for EIS.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:11 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 11):
Moving up 7 slots isn't much when you need to wait 6+ years for EIS.

The only reason they have to wait 6+ years is because Airbus was forced into a redesign that no one is impressed about. In the meantime, since the redesign was announced the back log has fallen from 75 to 62 with no new orders for the airplane. During the same period of time (Idon't have numbers) the 77W backlog haas increased.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:13 pm

Quoting msp747 (Reply 8):
I do think it is strange that the NEO and MAX can sell so well on claims like this, but a plane like the A351 seems to be struggling.

As hhslax2 points out, the NB derivatives are much more of a known quantity as opposed to the 35J which is new territory for Airbus in terms of twins. There is some skepticism (rightly or wrongly) that the 359 can be successfully stretched to that size. While its interesting that some ME carriers are expressing doubts in the 35J it still is very early to be drawing any conclusions on an aircraft that wont EIS until 2017.


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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 7):
Quoting cmf (Reply 6):The answer is in when you can get an A350-1000. You can't make money without the tool.
Well now it seems you can get an A350-1000 a lot sooner.

   Airbus still has to prove it can deliver the A350s on schedule. There are reports that EIS of the A350-900 will still happen Q2 2014, but production ramp-up will be the biggest challenge (like the A380 and 787). And again, as a result of interior issues    So, availability will be even a bigger problem, and for the -1000 even more. It's very hard planning if you don't know your first plane arrives 2017 or 2019. And Airbus was rumored to be very reluctant with compensation clauses in case of delays with the A350.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:19 pm

The 787 had orders rolling in at this point of time in its design life. I think that airlines are just not buying into the bs that Airbus marketing people are putting out. Hell, they are trying to match the performance of a 20 year old proven design, which is loved by many airlines. It was an uphill battle to begin with here. I can see some orders coming in, but now that Boeing is considering the 77X, it is even thougher sice 777 operators are likely to wait and see what that is going to be before jumping ship to the A350 which is still more of an uncertainty.
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sweair
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:21 pm

Its hard to take on 2 aircraft families with one family. Maybe Airbus went the wrong way here..
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:35 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
The only reason they have to wait 6+ years is because Airbus was forced into a redesign that no one is impressed about.

I agree, which brings us to the reason for the redesign. Airlines weren't all that happy with the capabilities initially projected by Airbus, and the redesign apparently hasn't convinced them. IMO that is a bigger factor than aircraft availability.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:44 pm

What's hurting the A350-1000's sales is that the 777-300ER is just so bloody good. I also expect that uncertainty as to when it will actually enter service is not helping. Bernstein Research still believes the A350-900 will not fly until 2015, which if true, could push EIS of the A350-1000 back to close to 2020.  faint 

Yes, Airbus claims the A350-1000 will club the 777-300ER like a harp seal, but as cmf noted, a 777-300ER will still make you large amounts of money and you can get one now.

What I find interesting is that Tim Clark at EK spent much of 2011 saying the A350-900 was too small for him and that he was considering swapping the entire order over for the A350-1000. He then orders 50 777-300ERs because the A350-1000 is running late. So why hasn't he converted his 50 A350-900s to A350-1000s?

[Edited 2012-05-07 07:53:44]
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:45 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 15):
The 787 had orders rolling in at this point of time in its design life.

Since January 2008 the 787 has been outsold by a 9:1 margin by the A330 (37 vs. 339 net orders). Why? Because of screw-ups with the program and (mostly) slot issues. You're seeing the same with the 77W and the 350..

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 15):
I think that airlines are just not buying into the bs that Airbus marketing people are putting out.

Do you have any proof that this is bs? Or is this just your opinion?
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:46 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 6):

The answer is in when you can get an A350-1000. You can't make money without the tool.
Quoting qf002 (Reply 10):
Why commit now when you can wait and see what happens with the 777X, 787, A380 and the industry in general.

While it's indeed a fact that certain products have long lead times, it also seems to be true that there are some products the customers will get in line for, and other ones that the customers will want to wait and see what they are like once they are available.

Think iPad, vs everyone else's tablet.

Clearly the ones that have customers lining up for are the 787, A320NEO, 737MAX, and A350-900.

Clearly the ones that customers want to wait and see on are the 747-8i, A350-1000 and BBD C Series.

Saying that customers aren't ordering due to long lead time is indeed factual but also damning, because clearly there are products that customers will order that have long lead times.
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sweair
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:50 pm

The A350 has to cover 787-8,787-9(787-10), 77L,77W, 778X, 779X.. With three models..
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 2:55 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
The only reason they have to wait 6+ years is because Airbus was forced into a redesign that no one is impressed about. In the meantime, since the redesign was announced the back log has fallen from 75 to 62 with no new orders for the airplane. During the same period of time (Idon't have numbers) the 77W backlog haas increased.

The reasons doesn't matter. The fact is they need to wait that long. Even if the wait was "only" 4 years it is still a big difference compared to getting it next year.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
So why hasn't he converted his 50 A350-900s to A350-1000s?

One of the issues he mentioned was delivery. EK expects (and probably needs!) their first A350 in 2014. At that time Airbus hadn't announced the delay of the A350-1000 until 2017 yet, but I think as soon as EK learned about it the swap was history. If Airbus had guaranteed delivery of the first A350-1000 for 2015, EK wouldn't have too much of a gap between delivery of their last 77W and first A350.

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:04:37]
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Stitch
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:05 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):
One of the issues he mentioned was delivery. EK expects (and probably needs!) their first A350 in 2014. At that time Airbus hadn't announced the delay of the A350-1000 until 2017 yet, but I think as soon as EK learned about it the swap was history.

Well he can always start taking A350-900s to replace the 777-200s and 777-200ERs, then swap later frames for A350-1000s once they are available.

Though I wonder if the A350 EIS really is pushed back into 2015, could EK add more 777-200LRs to replace their 77A/77E and then starts looking at the 777-8 in addition to the 777-9....   

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:05:59]
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:08 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 5):

I find that interestingly amusing... If that were true, Boeing wouldn't sell record numbers of the 77W's,and Boeing wouldn't be toying around with the 77X, rather we would see another 7E7 on the table...

For the record: 2011 was indeed a record-breadking year for the 777. But in 2012, Boeing has so far sold 6 777s, with 2 cancellations.

Anyway - here's a thing I don't get: When Airbus proposed the first few iterations of the A350 (before it became the XWB), it used a highly efficient airplane (the A330) as the basis that had effectively killed its rival (the 767) in the marketplace. The changes included new wings, new engines, more composite materials, etc.
Yet, everybody on a.net at the time derided this as an also-ran idea, inferior in every way to the 787 (which hadn't even been rolled out at the time). The market kind of agreed - Airbus did sell almost 200 of the non-XWB A350, but was then forced to come up with an all-new design.
Now Boeing proposes to use a highly efficient airplane (the 777) that has effectively killed its rival (the A340) as the basis for a new project. Changes include new wings, new engines, more composite materials and a few other bits and bobs.
A lot of people here are in agreement that this derivative is a definite killer of the A350.

What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?
Besides the fact that they're from different manufacturers, of course.
(Mind you - I'm not saying that the 777X is going to be crap; far from it, in fact. But I don't think that it's a foregone conclusion that it'll beat the A350 in all respects.)


Back to the topic of this thread - the A350-1000: It is indeed curious that Airbus keeps reiterating how great that plane is going to be and how the changes they made will make it even more competitive... yet, the reception from the existing A350-1000 customers has been luke-warm to say the least, and there haven't been any new A350-1000 customers announced since.
Then again, we're in the year before the A350's first flight, and new sales for a new type are usually a bit slow before its first flight.
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Stitch
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:20 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
Anyway - here's a thing I don't get:

I don't believe it is so much as "kill" as it is "compete".

The 787 will burn less fuel than the A330-200. But the A330-200 can lift more payload weight. So there is the belief that an A330-200's greater cargo capacity can offset the extra fuel it needs to burn and keep the plane overall competitive.

The A350 will burn less fuel then the 777X. But the 777X can carry more passengers and offers more cargo volume. So there is a belief that the 777X's extra passenger and cargo capacity can offset the extra fuel it needs to burn and keep the plane overall competitive.

Then again, folks seem to give fuel costs too much weight. Yes, they're the largest part of the operating cost, but they are not the totality of it.  
Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
For the record: 2011 was indeed a record-breadking year for the 777. But in 2012, Boeing has so far sold 6 777s, with 2 cancellations.

They do have some nice MoUs in the wings (China Southern's 10 and China Eastern's 20, for example).

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:22:27]
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:22 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 3):
It's interesting that the reporter chose to mention that there have been no new -1000 orders since A announced the changes to the -1000.

Personally I think it's just coincidence, but of course it'd be nice if the order book was growing rather than shrinking.

Why, the order/cancel book is an important part of the A-350-1000 story. It is far from a coincidence.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 5):
"The A350-1000 is consistently more capable than the (Boeing) 777-300ER. It will cover the world with 25 percent less fuel burn," an Airbus spokesman said.

I find that interestingly amusing... If that were true, Boeing wouldn't sell record numbers of the 77W's,and Boeing wouldn't be toying around with the 77X, rather we would see another 7E7 on the table...

I agree.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
the back log has fallen from 75 to 62 with no new orders for the airplane. During the same period of time (Idon't have numbers) the 77W backlog haas increased.

Yeap.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 19):
Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 15):I think that airlines are just not buying into the bs that Airbus marketing people are putting out.
Do you have any proof that this is bs? Or is this just your opinion?

How would you 'spin' this then? The A-3510 hasn't gotten an order since 16 July 2008 when OZ ordered 10 of them. That is an order drought of nearly 4 years for this model. Since Airbus announced 'improvements' to the A-3510 just before the 2011 PAS, the model has LOST 13 orders from the original 75 orders it had.

The airlines clearly have not bought into the sales BS from Airbus for the A-3510. In fact the entire A-350 product line has only had about 88 orders since 2009, and most of those orders were for the A-359, none for the A-3510. In 2011 the A-350 program LOST 28 orders, and so far in 2012 they have lost another 7.
 
ghifty
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:23 pm

Exactly what comprised the redesign? MTOW?

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
But I don't think that it's a foregone conclusion that it'll beat the A350 in all respects.

Of course not. Even when the damn planes are flying and in commercial service people will say one is more efficient than the other. Projected numbers (per A) say the A350 will be better than the 777. Projected numbers (per here) say the 77W will probably be, what, equal to the A350? For the record, I don't think anybody has said the 77X will "beat the A350 in all respects." But I have heard the opposite, regarding the 777.
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Stitch
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:27 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 28):
Exactly what comprised the redesign? MTOW?

IMO, it's choosing a 9-abreast cabin. Just as choosing an 8-abreast cabin on the original A350 compromised that design.

The 787 at 9-abreast and the 777 at 10-abreast helps an airline improve the CASM of their airframe as operating costs rise through adding more seats. When Boeing first announced the 787, they touted the comfortable 8-abreast seating. As fuel prices and everything else rose, more and more customers decided to go to 9-abreast and now most customers have chosen that as their configuration.

The passengers may not like it, but they still accept it (or they pay more for Premium Economy at 8-and-9 abreast).
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:36 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
A lot of people here are in agreement that this derivative is a definite killer of the A350.
)

I haven't seen many claims of the 777X being superior to the A350-10. In fact, since it's announcement, all the fanboys here have been crowing about the demise of the 777ER with some questionable assumptions.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):

What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?

Barrel size. It seems Boeing has been hitting the sweet spots there. Ok, maybe they missed a little 40 years ago on the 737, but...
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?
Besides the fact that they're from different manufacturers, of course.

Some members of this message board don't need any other info before they decide which aircraft "rocks" and which "sucks".   Very few, if any of them, are flies on the walls of the boardrooms where the actual decisions are made.

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:51:18]
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cmf
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:40 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?
Besides the fact that they're from different manufacturers, of course.

Apart from the sad obvious answer you provided there has also been several doses of reality handed out. For example, CFRP expectations have become more realistic.
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BrouAviation
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 3:40 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):

What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?

The 777X is made to do missions the 777 did before. The pre-XWB A350 was an upgraded A330 made for missions which were previously flown by 777's and even 747's. I think that was the mayor difference.

What I don't get is that the pre-XWB was based on the A330 (which is a 787/767 competitor) while the A350 after that was marketed mostly by Airbus as a 777-killer. It is the problem described above. Having 3 aircraft models compete with 8-10 from your competitor, there will be a lot of missions where the Boeings are more capable despite their age, just because they are tailor-made for their missions. One would think competing only is possible when you either are way better (25% +) or way cheaper/easier/faster to acquire. I don't believe the A350 series (especially the -1000) is any of that, and it seems, neither do the airlines.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:02 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 19):
Do you have any proof that this is bs? Or is this just your opinion?

The proof is in the number and proven performance of the T7 in service. The conjecture of Airbus and all the marketing propaganda from both companies with out any real data to back it up over the projected performance of an un-built and unproven aircraft that then always seem to be delayed by years and then under perform when they finally enter into service really stinks up these threads.
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sweair
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:03 pm

Airbus needs a model that takes on the 788 from below   My beloved 757 replacement maybe? Let Boeing eat their premature killing of the 757.. If done right it will cover the market from the current 321 on its longest flights and the lower end of the 788s envelope. Then go with 359 as a wedge between 787 and 777.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:05 pm

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 33):
What I don't get is that the pre-XWB was based on the A330 (which is a 787/767 competitor) while the A350 after that was marketed mostly by Airbus as a 777-killer.

For Airbus, the risks of slapping new engines on the A330 to create the A350 Mk. I was a low-risk, low-cost challenge, which was good for Airbus as they were trying to drag the A380 into service.

But as Richard Aboulafia notes with his "drug-like rush" comments, Boeing did a masterful job of selling the airlines on the benefits of CFRP and that forced Airbus to re-skin first the wings and then the fuselage of the A350 in CFRP. So in the end, you had a CFRP A330 with new engines. And that plane had traction (QR ordered 65 and other carriers were in for another ~150), but the 787 could take 9-abreast in the same seating as currently found on the 747 and 777 at 10-abreast and the 737/757 whereas the A350 Mk. I could only take 8 unless you went with a    charter configuration.

Also, by 2006 Airbus knew the A340 line was dead (even if it took another 6 years to formally put it in the coffin and lower it into the ground). So even if the A350 Mk. I kept Airbus strong in the 250-seat twin market with the 777-200LR and 777-300ER.

So Airbus went with 9-abreast on the A350 Mk. II (the A350XWB) to both increase capacity over the A330/A340 family and to better match the capacity of the 777 (which, at the time, was operated primarily at 9-abreast as opposed to 10-abreast) and compete with it.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting msp747 (Reply 8):
Some on this site boast about how much more efficient the 351 will be over the 77W and even the 77X, yet airlines are not lining up to buy it. What gives?

I think you hit the point with this statement. It's been all talk from some but little action from the airlines and companies that buy the planes. Maybe the airlines don't believe the A350-1000 will do what Airbus claims, and have decided that the 77W is simply better for them and a better plane is on the way with the 777X.

Although that does not account for the lack of new orders for the A350-1000 for what seems like forever.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:22 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 5):

I find that interestingly amusing... If that were true, Boeing wouldn't sell record numbers of the 77W's,and Boeing wouldn't be toying around with the 77X, rather we would see another 7E7 on the table...

Airbus has been selling record numbers of A330s, that is due to one main advantage over the 787, availability. Most if not all 777 sales at the moment are due for delivery before the A350-1000 EIS. This is the same reason why Boeing is not doing the 777 upgrade right now, it is technically possible to do it today, but why bother ? They have a captive market.

Liekwise I expect to see an upgraded A330 enter the market, however that will only happen after the 787 has got traction.

This would be of concern if both types were in production today, and had the same availability; however that is not the case.
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anfromme
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I don't believe it is so much as "kill" as it is "compete".

Of course, I totally agree on that, for precisely the reasons you outlined.
So I wasn't arguing against that at all  
Quoting mham001 (Reply 30):
Barrel size. It seems Boeing has been hitting the sweet spots there. Ok, maybe they missed a little 40 years ago on the 737, but...

As you already hinted at - if barrel size itself was all-important, where would that leave the 737? Or the 767, for that matter? Going by barrel size, the A300 should have won against the 767 long before the A330 came along.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 27):
How would you 'spin' this then? The A-3510 hasn't gotten an order since 16 July 2008 when OZ ordered 10 of them. That is an order drought of nearly 4 years for this model. Since Airbus announced 'improvements' to the A-3510 just before the 2011 PAS, the model has LOST 13 orders from the original 75 orders it had.

Mind you - the -1000 was always projected to be the last of the A350 family to enter service, and that EIS was delayed further (by almost two years, to mid-2017) when they announced the improvements to the A350-1000.
So a) it shows that -1000 isn't their immediate priority, and b) the almost two-year EIS delay didn't have potential customers suddenly rushing in to sign for the type.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 27):
The airlines clearly have not bought into the sales BS from Airbus for the A-3510. In fact the entire A-350 product line has only had about 88 orders since 2009

Between 31-Dec-2008 and 30-Apr-2012, Airbus logged a net total of 65 A350 orders, which now stand at 548.
While the total is stil not a number to be sneered at, I'm pretty sure that Airbus are not particularly happy about not having sold more. Given that we're in the roughly twelve-month cycle before first flight, though, I wouldn't expect too many new A350 orders in the next 10 months, either. (In the 12 months prior to the respective first flight, Boeing only sold 7 777s and actually lost a net 54 787 orders. I'm sure Airbus have seen a similar pattern of slow business, but it's not quite that easy to research on their website.)
Regarding whether or not Airbus' statements on the A350-1000 are pure marketing BS, as you claim, I would say that we'll have to wait a bit longer before we can pass judgement on this. As a reminder: the changes were announced less than a year ago, and EIS of the -1000 won't happen for another five years...

Quoting ghifty (Reply 28):
Exactly what comprised the redesign? MTOW?

According to a presentation by Fabrice Brégier given during EADS's Global Investor Forum in December 2011:
308t MTOW
97,000 lbs thrust
+4.5t payload
+400nm range
Later EIS
Performance enhancements have no specific fuel consumption impact.

[Edited 2012-05-07 09:56:32]
42
 
ghifty
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:32 pm

Thanks for responses.  
Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
IMO, it's choosing a 9-abreast cabin. Just as choosing an 8-abreast cabin on the original A350 compromised that design.

The 787 at 9-abreast and the 777 at 10-abreast helps an airline improve the CASM of their airframe as operating costs rise through adding more seats. When Boeing first announced the 787, they touted the comfortable 8-abreast seating. As fuel prices and everything else rose, more and more customers decided to go to 9-abreast and now most customers have chosen that as their configuration.

Oh, wow, that's a big change. It was originally meant to be a "comfortable" ten abreast, IIRC?

Quoting anfromme (Reply 39):
According to a presentation by Fabrice Brégier given during EADS's Global Investor Forum in December 2011:
308t MTOW
97,000 lbs thrust
+4.5t payload
+400nm range
Later EIS
Performance enhancements have no specific fuel consumption impact.

So it's less efficient at X miles now?
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 41):
So it's less efficient at X miles now?

Could you elaborate?

As I understand SFC, an airplane would only be less efficient at X miles even with an unchanged SFC if you calculated SFC as a function of the range. Which I don't think is generally done, although I'm happy to be proven wrong about this.

Trying to find more details on this, I found this. This firstly has EK's Clarke state that RR promised lower SFC (from an engine perspective), but that the higher weight of the airplane would eat up that advantage. Which would be in line with unchanged SFC from an airplane perspective that Airbus seem to be talking about. Secondly, it has Clarke say this about the -1000, which might illustrate the approach of a lot of people in the industry:

Quote:
I told Airbus I really want to see the aircraft flying," Clark said. "Let's certify the A350-900 and then we'll decide what we are going to do. [Airbus] still has to do work on [the -1000].
42
 
chiad
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 15):
The 787 had orders rolling in at this point of time in its design life.

Not net orders at least.
2009: -59
2010: -4
2011: +13
2012: -6
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 4:59 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 27):
The A-3510 hasn't gotten an order since 16 July 2008 when OZ ordered 10 of them. That is an order drought of nearly 4 years for this model. Since Airbus announced 'improvements' to the A-3510 just before the 2011 PAS, the model has LOST 13 orders from the original 75 orders it had.
Quoting brilondon (Reply 34):
The proof is in the number and proven performance of the T7 in service.

I already replied to this above. Since January 1st 2009, the 787 has gathered -56 orders. Yes. While the 330 has got +267 orders. Does this tell us that suddenly all airlines despise the 787? No. The main reason is availability. Same issue with the 350.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 19):
Since January 2008 the 787 has been outsold by a 9:1 margin by the A330 (37 vs. 339 net orders). Why? Because of screw-ups with the program and (mostly) slot issues. You're seeing the same with the 77W and the 350..

Yes we are seeing the same thing. Deliveries for new orders are either extremely expensive for relatively close slots (Airbus and Boeing mark up early delivery slots, so even though on paper the airplane is sold out for years, it likely is not), or the delivery is so far into the future that airlines have trouble negotiating any financing or commiting to the airplanes.

With the financial crunch in the markets since 2008, financial companies are not willing to negotiate terms 8 years before delivery for airlines except those with the best credit. This is not like the runup in orders that the 787 had when credit was easy.

I think airlines just do not want to commit to ordering airplanes 8 years out. We will eventually see the A350 orders surpass A330 orders and 787 orders surpass 777 orders again, but not for the current timeframe.

I wouldn't be too nervous about seeing cancellations and slow orders with the current backlog. One piece of information I see interesting is that the A350-900 definitely seems to be the bread and butter of the A350 program. I don't think this is a bad thing for Airbus. All they really care about is selling airplanes. In reality, it is only marketing rhetoric that compares the A350-1000 vs the 77W or 777X. If airlines prefer the A350 and that becomes a successful model, then Airbus wins. A.net has a fascination with the stretched versions of airplanes (why, I don't know, maybe it is because photographers prefer them), but manufacturers don't have the same interests. They just want to sell airplanes, so all the threads of A321 vs 757 or A321 vs 739ER or A351 vs 77W are only comparing segments of the market and not the entire market.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 25):
What am I missing here that is so fundamentally different between the pre-XWB A350 and the 777X?
Besides the fact that they're from different manufacturers, of course.

I think there has been a shift in thinking that all new airplanes are overweight, delayed, don't meet fuel burn promises, and are maintenance nightmares. This seems to be the trend on A.net with all the negative comments on the A380, 787 and 747-8. People seem to assume it is guaranteed that everything is late, does not meet expectations and that the manufacturers are giving away free airplanes as compensation and of course that CEOs exclusively make all the decisions. That is not necessarily reality, but on the forums it comes across as airlines are nervous about any new program and are more interested in mature programs.

I'm not sure if I believe all the rhetoric. I think the pre-XWB faced many complaints when airlines were believing all that Boeing marketing said about the 787. In reality that did not come true, and somehow it seems that some believe that caution should be taken on promises of any program.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 5:17 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 28):
Exactly what comprised the redesign? MTOW?

Like the A350-800, the A350-1000 is compromised by the fact Airbus is trying to cover a span of 100 seats in the Airbus product line with a single aircraft type. The A350-900 hits the efficiency sweet spot, but the A350-800 and A350-1000 have some compromises as a result of being out at the edges of what the A350 architecture can accomplish. Compounding the problem, the A350 competes against two different aircraft, both of which have efficiency sweet spots exactly where the A350 models are weakest.

Quoting sweair (Reply 21):
The A350 has to cover 787-8,787-9(787-10), 77L,77W, 778X, 779X.. With three models..

  

Even though Airbus has revised the wing for the A351 and has convinced RR to offer a higher thrust engine for the airplane, the A351 remains far from being optimized. The increase in wing area is accomplished via a trailing edge extension when what it really needs is span. The added thrust is accomplished by increasing the engine core diameter/flow, but without increasing the fan size. This sacrifices bypass ratio and TSFC.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 10):
It suggests to me that the Airbus figures are extremely optimistic, to the extent that the airlines just don't believe them.

This is at the heart of the problem. In addition to the engine and wing changes, the A351 has needed some MTOW growth to make its mission. The added MTOW has compounded some already existing OEW growth in the A350 family. All of these together add up to reduced fuel efficiency for the airplane. Airbus has stuck to their original "25% better than the 777" claims, but the basic physics of the airplane are not even close to supporting these claims. This is what has been turning the market away from the A351 for several years now.

In the end, I think we will see the A351 built and be a great aircraft, but I believe that will only happen after Airbus goes back and makes some fundamental changes to the airplane (more span) and engine (larger fan). The reason I think this will happen is because Airbus simply cannot afford to concede the entire market between the A350-900 and A380-800.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 5:52 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 44):


The difference is that the 787 has still had new orders placed every year since it was offered for all variants. It also wasn't until last year that a cancellation was made due to Boeing missing targets and being late but i cant remember which airline it was. Every other cancellation was due to the GFC.

All of Etihad's cancellations have been because they appear to not like the aircraft any more. That should be of concern especially since they themselves said they were now looking at the 777x.
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sweair
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 6:16 pm

Well I am not surprised, the 350 has to span across too many sizes to be an optimal airframe beyond one size and that seems to be the A350-900. As with 777, the 300ER is the most successful model between the 200 and the 300. I also think 789 will be a better plane than 788.

The 738 is the best in its family..etc etc

Why the emotional turn in this thread? We are talking about a product, it has no feelings or pride..

Its hard to kill 2 birds with one stone, try 3..
 
fpetrutiu
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 6:22 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 52):
Well I am not surprised, the 350 has to span across too many sizes to be an optimal airframe beyond one size and that seems to be the A350-900. As with 777, the 300ER is the most successful model between the 200 and the 300. I also think 789 will be a better plane than 788.

The 738 is the best in its family..etc etc

I tend to agree with you. I too think that the A350-1000 is a stretch (both literally and figuratively) to make it an effective B77W "killer". It seems like the 77W is a real fit for its purpose.
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RE: Etihad Cancels Another 7 A350-1000

Mon May 07, 2012 6:35 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 46):
A.net has a fascination with the stretched versions of airplanes (why, I don't know, maybe it is because photographers prefer them), but manufacturers don't have the same interests.

   If they only wanted to sell one model they would only offer that one model  
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