JoeCanuck
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BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 10:15 am

No news may be good news but sometimes real news can be good too.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/busin...Bombardier+says/6602592/story.html

Quote:
Chief executive Pierre Beaudoin told analysts he is “very enthusiastic about progress being made in the testing ... there are no red flags so far

So far, none of the rumour mills are sounding the doom and gloom trumpets so may they actually can pull this off. If they do, that would be a heck of a feat.
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golfradio
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 4:21 pm

Fantastic news. I can't wait to see it in the air. I was following the other thread on the speculation for AC 319/320 replacement and I really hope, the C-Series finds a place in the fleet.

Edit:
If BBD can pull it off, it will be a commendable achievement in the light of the 787 and 350 programs.

[Edited 2012-05-11 09:22:41]
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting golfradio (Reply 1):
If BBD can pull it off, it will be a commendable achievement in the light of the 787 and 350 programs.

Agreed , I feel that we all add up a couple of years in our heads automatically these days with new programs for EIS. Congrats if this comes to reality, Boeing and Airbus ... take some notes  
 
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Stitch
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 4:36 pm

The plane has been in development for 8 years (they originally launched it in 2004 and during the year's suspension of the program they still continued to work on it at a lower pace), which is about what it took Boeing to get the 787 out the door and what it appears to be taking Airbus with the A350.

Still, even if they're taking as long as the big boys to get it done, they are getting it done.   
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 4:41 pm

Imagine delivering it on time and at or above spec. I am sure we will see a sudden interest in the type. This is going to be BBD's tipping point.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

BBD was clever enough to give enough lead time to customers and use much of their current supply chain, Keeping the fuse metal also shortened the development curve..

Still,, it's not flying yet but I am absolutely sure we would be hearing the rumour mill stirring the pot if the wheels really were coming off of the cart.

I remain cautiously optimistic. If something does happen to slow things down,, any delay less than 6 months will still seem like a fantastic victory.

I doubt we'll see many more sales until the thing has some air time but if it's on spec, the orders will come.
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Thenoflyzone
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 11:15 pm

I highly doubt the CSeries will fly in 2012.

The Chief Executive of most companies are full of hot air ! Don't take their word for it.

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 11:38 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Thread starter):
No news may be good news but sometimes real news can be good too.

Indeed, a week or so ago BBD issued a press release indicating f.f.. Dec 2012 "or early 2013", which I think is more likely. Last year the head of the program said they had basically burned up much of their contingency time.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 5):
I doubt we'll see many more sales until the thing has some air time but if it's on spec, the orders will come.

I agree with that, and in light of the 1-1.5 yr delay in the MRJ program, that may bias some operators towards BBD. Embraer's E-jet 2.0 won't be flying until 2016 at the earliest, so BBD had better not screw the pooch. They have a wonderful opportunity here.

The news on the P&WC GTF is also good: sfc better than predicted.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 5):
I highly doubt the CSeries will fly in 2012.

Per my initial comment.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Fri May 11, 2012 11:57 pm

If it's going to fly in 2012 the prototype must be nearly complete. At least the structure anyway. Any pics available of the progress?
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 12:20 am

For such confidence stated, I have a feeling it will indeed fly this year. I also suspect they have a completed airframe already, or narrowly complete. No pictures out there of it? If this plane does what it says it can, I have no doubt that the plane will be successful. I love BBDs product.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 12:35 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 9):
I also suspect they have a completed airframe already

Lol..

I can guarantee you they have no such thing ! As for a...

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 9):
narrowly complete.

frame, it depends what you consider "narrowly". If you mean "most of the parts are fitted together", maybe yes, maybe no.
If on the other hand, you mean "most parts are in the same room as each other", that's probably right !

Once again, i highly doubt it will fly in 2012. It is worth mentioning that even a Q1 or Q2 2013 first flight would be very impressive !

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2012-05-11 17:45:11]
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 12:59 am

another angle we havent considered.

MRJ recently announced a huge delay in their program. Maybe BBD staying quiet about their program for as long as possible is a way for them to steal those 50 orders of the MRJ by Trans States Airlines or any other potential MRJ buyer.

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 2:06 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):
another angle we havent considered.

MRJ recently announced a huge delay in their program. Maybe BBD staying quiet about their program for as long as possible is a way for them to steal those 50 orders of the MRJ by Trans States Airlines or any other potential MRJ buyer.

Size and weight wise... and price wise would you think that the CRJ series might be more competitive?

http://www.mrj-japan.com/images/92y_l.gif

http://www.airfrance.hu/common/image/PlansCabine/en/BRITAIR_CRJ1000_100pax_maxi_en.gif
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 3:41 am

Quoting golfradio (Reply 4):

Imagine delivering it on time and at or above spec. I am sure we will see a sudden interest in the type. This is going to be BBD's tipping point.

It won't take being on time. There is still high risk of missed milestones. Now BBD has bought down a HUGE amount of risk with structural testing and Pratt with the engine testing. But there is still schedule risk. My point is that if the C-series is on or better than spec... It will find more customers.


This is good news. What impresses me is (form the OP's link):"Chief executive Pierre Beaudoin told analysts he is “very enthusiastic about progress being made in the testing ... there are no red flags so far ... it’s a highly complex program but a complete aircraft with all its systems in place will be ready by June.”

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/busin...s/6602592/story.html#ixzz1ucfro8oS


June... For ground work... but that is impressive.

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:06 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):

A rollout of a complete, systems installed plane...? Is that possible...?
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:40 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 14):
rollout of a complete, systems installed plane...? Is that possible...?

Anything is possible. The silence until now has me thinking that BBD has been doing lots of work, and might just surprise us. For BBD to come out and say it will fly in 2012 is dangerous to state if the plane is still just on paper. To make such a statement has me thinking the program is further along in terms of being ready to test.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 10):
frame, it depends what you consider "narrowly". If you mean "most of the parts are fitted together", maybe yes, maybe no.
If on the other hand, you mean "most parts are in the same room as each other", that's probably right !

Once again, i highly doubt it will fly in 2012. It is worth mentioning that even a Q1 or Q2 2013 first flight would be very impressive !

Thenoflyzone

I could be wrong, as it would not be the first!  

But my above posting is why I feel somewhat confident in my feeling. I am sure BBD has learned a ton from Boeing and Airbus. We as aviation enthusiasts were a bit unhappy with the delays of the 787 and A380. Not to mention the customers! Again, if BBD is going to throw out the time frame as they have, I would think and hope they are closer than we know. I would be saddened to see BBD take the punishment others have taken by giving dates, and not meeting it. I personally think any aircraft manufacturer should bite their lips, and announce first flights AFTER ground tests have been completed.

I am excited to see this bird fly. I think once it does, we will see some good sized orders. Lets face it, BBD makes a hell of a product. Some bash the CRJs because of comfort, but I personally felt absolutely comfortable on every ride.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 5:42 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 14):
A rollout of a complete, systems installed plane...? Is that possible...?

I do not know the status of the airframe, so I am unable to speak (type) with much authority. If the parts are there, one can apply a tremendous amount of manpower to make it happen. Could it be done with 24/7 operations.    Has bombardier implemented that level of staffing? I have not a clue.

I really do not want to see another 'Potemkin rollout.' I see it being possible with schedule risk. In other words, I'm not putting any money (or beer) on the line betting we'll have a system installed plane by end of June. I'm saying its possible.

But Bombardier has done quite a bit of testing ahead of time. The question is, are all the parts basically on hand? (By basically, we can have a a few hundred drawing numbers not yet delivered, but there had better be one well known effectivity matrix.) Do they have backup fasteners (in many grip lengths including washers, nuts, etc.), do they have surplus parts? What if something doesn't fit. What are the standby machine shop resources?

I would have to fly up to the assembly site to have true confidence and see the effectivity project plan to have any true confidence. Now anyone who knows that had better not post anything on a.net (breaks the non-disclosure rules).

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 15):
I would be saddened to see BBD take the punishment others have taken by giving dates, and not meeting it.

I would be horrified if they stated a June rollout today and did any worse than early August. That would show a management as out of touch as Pratt's was for the PW6000.   

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 15):
I am excited to see this bird fly. I think once it does, we will see some good sized orders.

Once it flies and meets promise, I believe we'll see some larger orders (but not before). I'm hearing good things about the engines (but my sources are very quiet lately...) and rumblings from vendors on component weights. But then again, the 787 was botched on assembly... I hope Bombardier learned the interface control document lessons...

I really want to be 100% optimistic... If bombardier makes schedule, they will impress.

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 8:01 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
I really want to be 100% optimistic... If bombardier makes schedule, they will impress.

It is a very sad that we don't believe it is possible for anyone to meet their schedules   
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 8:02 am

Quoting golfradio (Reply 1):
If BBD can pull it off, it will be a commendable achievement in the light of the 787 and 350 programs.

   I think for both programs, there were so many issues before they even began static testing. This is an achievement for Bombardier given the time we live in these days.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
June... For ground work... but that is impressive.

So when could we possibly expect to see a rollout?
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 9:24 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 5):
BBD was clever enough to give enough lead time to customers and use much of their current supply chain, Keeping the fuse metal also shortened the development curve..

According to BBD, "The CSeries aircraft contain 70% advanced materials comprising 46% composite materials and 24% aluminium-lithium which allows for a 15% lower seat-mile cost and a significant reduction in maintenance costs."

-that doesn't sound like they kept the fuselage metal.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

The plane has been in development for 8 years (they originally launched it in 2004 and during the year's suspension of the program they still continued to work on it at a lower pace), which is about what it took Boeing to get the 787 out the door and what it appears to be taking Airbus with the A350.

Officially launched in July of 2008, with about 4 years of on/off R&D behind the programmes belt. I see a first flight in Q4 2012 or Q1 2013 to be very attainable considering that the 787 made it into the skies almost 7 years after it was announced. A lot of the news put out by Boeing during the Dreamliner's production were almost always related to design changes and problems arising with production of the aircraft. Same with the A350. Seeing as to how quiet the CSeries programme has been and the fact that it's been "in the works" for almost eight years with substantial research done before fabrication, I'm very optimistic that it will fly in 2012.

If all goes well and the PW1500 hits the -14% mark, the CSeries should gain a substantial amount of orders by EIS. Carries more passengers over longer distances.. bigger cabin.. newer fuselage materials.. in comparison to the E-190.

Air Canada hasn't ordered the jet yet, and IMO, it would feet their current fleet very well. The E-175 carries 73 pax, the E-190 carries 93, and the next biggest jet (A319) carries 120-132 pax. This is a gap of about 30-42... one which the 110-125 seater CS100/ER can fit very well. The -ER will be able to fly most of the A319 routes, and will probably be lighter and more fuel efficient. So potentially the CS100/ER can fill in a gap and replace the A319 or E-190. The CS300 can come in to relieve some by-then old A320 until NEOs (assuming this happens) come in.

[Edited 2012-05-12 02:34:33]
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 11:22 am

Quoting ghifty (Reply 19):
Air Canada hasn't ordered the jet yet, and IMO, it would feet their current fleet very well. The E-175 carries 73 pax, the E-190 carries 93, and the next biggest jet (A319) carries 120-132 pax. This is a gap of about 30-42... one which the 110-125 seater CS100/ER can fit very well. The -ER will be able to fly most of the A319 routes, and will probably be lighter and more fuel efficient. So potentially the CS100/ER can fill in a gap and replace the A319 or E-190. The CS300 can come in to relieve some by-then old A320 until NEOs (assuming this happens) come in.

AC are reconfiguring the Y cabin on the E-190s to 88 seats, so total pax will now be 97.

For AC to take the CSeries, at least right now, would be a bit of a stretch given their financial condition, and, the E-jets are fairly new. One thing I could see is moving the 175s to Jazz (or trading them in to BBD for 15 CRJ705s, which are actually pretty nice). If a lessor liKe ILFC agreed to be a remarketer for the 190s, then I think an AC CSeries order would be inevitable. A lot depends on the on-going labour discussions and potentially another CCAA.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 12:20 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 19):
-that doesn't sound like they kept the fuselage metal.

Yes they do. Fwd and central fuselage only. Rear fuselage (skin only) and wings are made with CFRP.
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:13 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 6):
I highly doubt the CSeries will fly in 2012.

The Chief Executive of most companies are full of hot air ! Don't take their word for it.

The statement was made in a Shareholders' call. There is no way in hell, he would make a claim if he had information to the contrary. He will be criminally liable.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
But then again, the 787 was botched on assembly

But with most of the design and fabrication being in-house, we hopefully should not see the same issues. A big part of the 787 assembly issues were the sub-assemblies done outside of Everett.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:30 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 18):
So when could we possibly expect to see a rollout?

I suspect it will be end of June... the question is how much work is left before it could start testing.

I expect not everything to be done before initial testing is started. By that is ok. As long as the plane can be fueled and the engines run up, flight test milestones (on the ground), could be knocked out on schedule. The minimum equipment list will grow as the test program progresses. One can even fly with certain equipment missing (but only in VFR conditions, which is all that they will do initially).

Working 24/7, a prototype can be brought up to full condition and flown.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 22):
The statement was made in a Shareholders' call. There is no way in hell, he would make a claim if he had information to the contrary. He will be criminally liable.

   But informed is he? Are the subordinates playing 'range chicken' hoping someone else delays the program in a way to mask their tardiness?

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:31 pm

Nearly every other airliner produced had regular photos showing progress of the prototype taking shape. I find it very odd that there are no photos of the cSeries so far, and the only conclusion i can make is that no assembly has taken place.
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 4:32 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 19):
Air Canada hasn't ordered the jet yet, and IMO, it would feet their current fleet very well. The E-175 carries 73 pax, the E-190 carries 93, and the next biggest jet (A319) carries 120-132 pax. This is a gap of about 30-42... one which the 110-125 seater CS100/ER can fit very well. The -ER will be able to fly most of the A319 routes, and will probably be lighter and more fuel efficient. So potentially the CS100/ER can fill in a gap and replace the A319 or E-190. The CS300 can come in to relieve some by-then old A320 until NEOs (assuming this happens) come in.

Can the CS100ER operate transcons (or midcons) like the E90 and A319 do?
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 5:46 pm

Quoting golfradio (Reply 23):
A big part of the 787 assembly issues were the sub-assemblies done outside of Everett.

There are enough outside of Mirabel (wings, CINPAC work, etc.) No one builds their own plane structure anymore. The sub-systems were always outsourced.

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 25):
I find it very odd that there are no photos of the cSeries so far

I've found photos of wings, engines/nacelles, and fusalage barrels, but little else. It is so odd this close to the end of June...

Quoting laca773 (Reply 26):
Can the CS100ER operate transcons (or midcons) like the E90 and A319 do?

   The CS100ER will even, in a reduced seating arrangement a la BA's LCY A318, be able to fly TATL.
The 2950nm range is marginal, but I expect that to grow quickly with later examples.

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connies4ever
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting laca773 (Reply 26):
Can the CS100ER operate transcons (or midcons) like the E90 and A319 do?

Yes,as can the CS300ER, although it probably would be weight-listed.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 27):
The CS100ER will even, in a reduced seating arrangement a la BA's LCY A318, be able to fly TATL.
The 2950nm range is marginal, but I expect that to grow quickly with later examples.

Yes, I would expect that range will grow somewhat with more experience. What I find interesting is BBD's (I would think) marketing staff saying the CS100ER will be capable of LCY-JFK nonstop out of the box. That implies some type of ETOPS certification, does it not ? It is also interesting that Privat Air of Switzerland, who have a commercial arrangement with LH, have ordered 5, and optioned 5, CS100ERs. I am wondering if LH are going to move on BA's traffic LCY-JFK. For TATL the CS100ER would likely seat 48, or maybe 44, vs BA 318s 32.

From what I have read, BA are finding this service to be quite lucrative. Of course, Privat Air could also look at LCY-JED/RUH or something like that. If range could grow just a little, LCY-DCA might be possible.
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sat May 12, 2012 11:25 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 28):
That implies some type of ETOPS certification, does it not ?

   More detail:
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ries-flight-test-programme-366583/

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 28):
It is also interesting that Privat Air of Switzerland, who have a commercial arrangement with LH, have ordered 5, and optioned 5, CS100ERs.

   With LZ also buying the C-series, I wonder what LH knows...   Ok, really only a few shaker tests and engine runs, but it doesn't seem to have them running scared...

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Sun May 13, 2012 7:45 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 27):
I've found photos of wings, engines/nacelles, and fusalage barrels, but little else. It is so odd this close to the end of June...

Flightblogger published a picture of the cockpit in March
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl...hoto-of-note-bombardiers-firs.html

Bombardier also released in April a video talking about A/C 0, and they are presenting the final assembly line tooling, which was already commissionned at the time of publication.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0SXC-Y3EPE

For the roll-out ceremony, I remember over 15 years ago the Global Express ceremony, but other than that, I'm not sure Bombardier has done a roll out for all of their new products.
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Mon May 14, 2012 4:03 pm

Quoting BD500 (Reply 30):
Bombardier also released in April a video talking about A/C 0, and they are presenting the final assembly line tooling, which was already commissionned at the time of publication.

That video was interesting.

Quoting BD500 (Reply 30):
Flightblogger published a picture of the cockpit in March

Thank you. But again, pretty much all 'unstuffed' aircraft parts. If its Bombardier's culture not to show much... that is ok. Its just going to be a busy 6 weeks or so.

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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Mon May 14, 2012 4:28 pm

BBD is a smaller organization than Boeing or Airbus. In my view, that can be a huge plus. Situational awareness is so much better.
 
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Mon May 14, 2012 8:38 pm

I would love to get daily updates from BBD, but what I find more interesting than the general silence, is the specific silence from the rumour mill.

BBD isn't some backwater builder that can hide its activities or problems under a stump. Every move it makes is in public and can be scrutinized. It has thousands of employees...and still not one peep about any real problems...(and you know there are always a few disgruntled employees ready to bad mouth the boss).

So nothing bad from the usual pundits, suppliers, bloggers, analysts and sundry experts.

I'm sure something will come up...it's virtually impossible to avoid all problems but we're darned close to some major deadlines and all's quiet.

It's probably a good thing...
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Mon May 14, 2012 8:46 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 33):
but what I find more interesting than the general silence, is the specific silence from the rumour mill.

I'm hearing nothing negative of substance. *Nothing!* That is unreal. Oh, I hear this is a scramble to ship to BBD on time, but what I'm not hearing is:
1. Vendors being asked to slip ship dates as they don't want to pay for 'early parts' due to a general delay.
2. Any major vendor 'oops.'

But I'm also not hearing about fasteners, wiring, and the other items that bite one last minute. (Oh, the misery of fixing last minute integration and activation of wiring... ugh!)    Ok... go back to a happy place, go back to a happy place... This could be good, It could be bad (e.g., BBD not realizing they need one more fastener grip length). Wiring might or

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 33):
I'm sure something will come up...it's virtually impossible to avoid all problems but we're darned close to some major deadlines and all's quiet.

That is amazing and is probably a good thing.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
Situational awareness is so much better.

To some degree. But wiring, software, and last minute joining issues have little to do with team size and everything to do with pre-planned contingencies.

Lightsaber
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davs5032
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Mon May 14, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
Thank you. But again, pretty much all 'unstuffed' aircraft parts. If its Bombardier's culture not to show much... that is ok. Its just going to be a busy 6 weeks or so.

I too have been very surprised by the lack of "evidence" in the form of pictures/video/general updates coming out of Montreal, but it's obviously a conscious decision by BBD to keep things close to the chest, to which they are adhering to completely. Have they done things this way (lack of PR wise) on past projects?

The fact that this statement was made by one of the BBD officers is significant in itself, b/c the liability he could be faced with concerning misstatements to the market/shareholders is such that he'd be an idiot to make such a statement if it were not accurate, for the most part. Also, I believe someone in an earlier comment questioned whether he was sufficiently informed regarding the actual situation on the production process. However, disclosure laws generally require such an officer to be fully informed before making such a statement before he can qualify for the protection from liabilities which officers' statements can be subject to.

This statement is also significant because of the timing. When I heard statements like this a year ago, I pretty much turned a deaf ear, as it was early enough in the process that they could be experiencing significant problems yet still have enough time remaining to reasonably think they could "catch up" before EIS. Now, however, we are so close to scheduled roll-out of the first frame, that you'd think there must be more accuracy to the statement, and I give it a whole lot more credibility.
 
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golfradio
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 12:20 am

Unlike Boeing, BBD has previous experience with the "Blue" model for supply chain architecture. They have learnt their lessons from the Global 5000 program.
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ssteve
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 12:33 am

Quoting golfradio (Reply 36):
Unlike Boeing, BBD has previous experience with the "Blue" model for supply chain architecture. They have learnt their lessons from the Global 5000 program.

I wish I had confidence in corporation's management to "learn" anything, because management will turn over, and they'll make the same damn mistakes. Hopefully Boeing's spectacular repudiation of the efficacy of outsourcing the baby along with the bathwater might percolate a bit. A cautionary tale. This decade's New Coke.
 
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golfradio
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 12:49 am

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 37):
Hopefully Boeing's spectacular repudiation of the efficacy of outsourcing the baby along with the bathwater might percolate a bit

I agree and that's the difference between the two programs that I want to highlight. Unlike the over 400 suppliers for the 787 program, the CSeries program has to manage just about a 100 suppliers. Boeing outsourced things like even fasteners, structural components, tooling and a lot of sub-assemblies
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JoeCanuck
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 1:38 am

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 35):
I too have been very surprised by the lack of "evidence" in the form of pictures/video/general updates coming out of Montreal, but it's obviously a conscious decision by BBD to keep things close to the chest, to which they are adhering to completely. Have they done things this way (lack of PR wise) on past projects?

I don't know if they are really keeping things quiet or there's simply nothing to report. They haven't been shy about answering questions or showing off the CIASTA or their production facilities. I'm sure if anyone has been snubbed we'd have heard about it.

It's been so long since a program has gone off as scheduled...maybe we've just forgotten how to deal with it.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 36):
Unlike Boeing, BBD has previous experience with the "Blue" model for supply chain architecture. They have learnt their lessons from the Global 5000 program.

They've had a global supply chain forever. The Challengers, CRJ's and Q's have major systems suppliers from around the world and their supply chain has never been an issue before. That aspect of the CSeries production seems to be pretty much business as usual.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 38):
Boeing outsourced things like even fasteners, structural components, tooling and a lot of sub-assemblies

I give Boeing a lot of slack on the fastener thing. They've always gone to Alcoa for their fasteners. Boeing may have added some new twists to the fastener specs, but they've never made fasteners in house and Alcoa shares a lot of the blame for that goat rodeo.
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LAXDESI
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 4:43 am

FWIW, I expect the CS300ER to burn about 180 gallons less fuel(about $600) than B737-7(MAX) on a 500 nm trip.

Assuming 6 less Y seats on CS300--relative to B737-7 in a 2-class configuration-- and at $75 average fare and 70% load factor, CS300 ends up with nearly $300 in higher trip operating profit. Assuming six 500nm trip per day, CS300 should have an annual operating advantage of nearly $1 million.
 
BDL757
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 6:07 am

With Delta, United, and American ordering new 737 family and A320 family aircraft, does anyone see them also ordering some CS100 or CS300 to fill the gap between the large RJs and 737/A320? I think it would be a good fit for DL and UA at some of their hubs.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 6:16 am

Quoting golfradio (Reply 38):
Boeing outsourced things like even fasteners

Are there *any* OEM's building their own fastners? Other than one-offs like engine mount bolts, I don't think any of them build standards. That's just a terrible business for an airframer to be in.

Tom.
 
ANM604
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Tue May 15, 2012 6:27 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 39):
They've had a global supply chain forever. The Challengers, CRJ's and Q's have major systems suppliers from around the world and their supply chain has never been an issue before. That aspect of the CSeries production seems to be pretty much business as usual.

Correct. One thing people tend to forget is that BBD has been making trains, and lots of them, very successfully for many years now. While they are no doubt not even close to as difficult to build/design as a new A/C, it's not like punching out a whack of water bottles. They have proven to be very adept at supply chain management, and program management. That the C-series has progressed to this point without any major hiccups (*knock on wood!), really isn't that much of a surprise to me. The real trick will be getting the first test birds in the air, and flight testing underway.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):
Assuming six 500nm trip per day, CS300 should have an annual operating advantage of nearly $1 million.

Interesting numbers, thanks for those. Will be interesting to see how pricing plays out for the two.

Quoting BDL757 (Reply 41):
With Delta, United, and American ordering new 737 family and A320 family aircraft, does anyone see them also ordering some CS100 or CS300 to fill the gap between the large RJs and 737/A320?

Sadly, probably not. AA definitely will not be able too, given their previous large orders, and financial state. DL & UA, maybe, but I'm just not sure the timing will work in the C-series' favour. They would definitely work well at either carrier though.
 
FergYVR
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 1:28 am

At the European Aviation Convention and Exhibition in Geneva yesterday, Qatar announced delays in negotiation and put their talks on hold on the C-Series saying they are too busy. Maybe they know something we don't about some unexpected delays?


http://news.malaysia.msn.com/busines...bombardier-cseries-talks-on-hold-2
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Stitch
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 1:44 am

Quoting fergyvr (Reply 44):
Maybe they know something we don't about some unexpected delays?

More likely it is the one model AAB hasn't complained about and he didn't want Bombardier to feel left out.   
 
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golfradio
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 2:51 am

Quoting fergyvr (Reply 44):
Maybe they know something we don't about some unexpected delays?

Why negotiate this close to scheduled first flight? If the schedule slips he can just walk away. If it's on time, he probably reckons he can still squeeze BBD based on the slim order book.
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LAXDESI
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 3:07 am

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 43):
Interesting numbers, thanks for those. Will be interesting to see how pricing plays out for the two.

As per wiki, CS300 is about $11 million cheaper at list than B737-7(Max). It should have a good long term future if it comes in at spec.

Does anyone know if BBD plans to certify CS300 for upto 150 passengers? I can see an LCC wanting to configure the CS300 with 150 Y seats using slimline seats.

I have seen reports suggesting that Republic Air plans to configure its CS300 with 138 Y seats.

[Edited 2012-05-15 20:24:52]
 
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lightsaber
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 6:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):
More likely it is the one model AAB hasn't complained about and he didn't want Bombardier to feel left out.

Oh, Al Baker complained Pratt wouldn't guarantee engine maintenance as far as they were mouthing off in public PR.

The fact that Al Baker didn't rake the C-series over the coals is quite encouraging.

I didn't realize QR was still negotiating on the S-series. I hope they order the type, but I see no rush for them until after the new-DOH airport is opened.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 46):
Why negotiate this close to scheduled first flight?

My thoughts too. This is the hardest time to sell a plane as there is little value in signing until after the flight test data. Tough on Bombardier, but that should be the expected norm.

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baje427
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RE: BBD; CSeries On Schedule For 2012 First Flight

Wed May 16, 2012 4:38 pm

A bit off topic but will BBD be incorporating any of the advances of the CSeries into their other programs such as the CRJ or Q400 line?