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skippy777
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Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 1:56 pm

http://www.btmagazine.nl/?p=6905

They are making less money and still want more aircrafts
The money must run out one day also in Dubai

[Edited 2012-05-14 07:10:05]
 
Someone83
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 2:01 pm

Quoting Skippy777 (Thread starter):
They are losing money

They are making money and just released the financial for last year which again showed a surplus. Although smaller than last year
 
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skippy777
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 2:11 pm

Your Correct Someone83 but they are making less money and there must be a point that you don't grow anymore
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 2:20 pm

Quoting Skippy777 (Thread starter):
Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

...or else we'll keep buying more of the current model!

And that is why I think Boeing should be looking harder at the Y3 than 777X.

Quoting Skippy777 (Thread starter):
The money must run out one day also in Dubai

...because all the people on Emirates flights don't pay to be there?
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
su184
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 2:23 pm

Ummm, smell of another A3510 cancellation.  
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting su184 (Reply 4):
Ummm, smell of another A3510 cancellation.   

Very unlikely, IMO.

EK needs the A350-1000. They have plenty of missions to Europe, Africa and the Indian Subcontinent where an A350-1000 has the range to carry a full payload and where the lower fuel-burn will have very direct and significant benefits due to more daily / weekly / monthly turns then the long-haul missions to the Americas and Asia / Australia (which is where the 777-300ER and the 777X may have the edge using EK mission rules).
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 4:10 pm

Quoting Skippy777 (Reply 2):

Your Correct Someone83 but they are making less money and there must be a point that you don't grow anymore

So this must automatically mean they lose money and that the 'money must run out one day'...  

Dubai and the rest of the Middle East is not going to slip away back into obscurity and nor are their airlines. There is still potential for huge amounts of air travel growth in the region and nothing to indicate it's not achievable. Growth will eventually slow, but stop altogether - well I very much doubt it in the foreseeable future.


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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 4:10 pm

I'm curious, with all the attention its getting (777x that it is) why cant Boeing approach the board sooner to get the approval they need to start??
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 5:04 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 7):
I'm curious, with all the attention its getting (777x that it is) why cant Boeing approach the board sooner to get the approval they need to start??

They're probably still at the stage of consulting with potential customers and refining the design. They also want to be sure that it's better than anything Airbus can produce with the A350-1000 and then, on top of that, they need to decide what powerplant(s) it should have. Plenty of work left.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 7):
I'm curious, with all the attention its getting (777x that it is) why cant Boeing approach the board sooner to get the approval they need to start??

They're trying to workout costs associated with the program as well as production methods.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 5:21 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 7):
I'm curious, with all the attention its getting (777x that it is) why cant Boeing approach the board sooner to get the approval they need to start??

It really comes down to engineering takes time. At this point in the process, high level trade studies are being done. The configuration has not been set and is still in the planning phase. Offering the airplane for sale to customers requires a price. That means all the engineering work has to be accounted for and estimates need to be made for the cost of all components. For example, the board does not want to formally offer for sale an airplane, and then have engineering realize that the entire vertical fin needs to be redesigned and a new rudder is necessary. Things like that drive up cost and if the airplane is launched too early, the estimates will be too far off and the schedule will not work. Integrating 2 million parts is a large scale effort. It makes sense that the customers want the airplanes sooner, but with the level of technical detail required, going too fast will end up in either cost or schedule overruns or both.

The board could prematurely offer the program for sale like they did on the 737MAX, but there does not appear to be the same motivation to do so since there is not an imminent competitor taking customers away like the A320NEO was.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 6:26 pm

It´s EK standard to "complain or talk" about every single plane and try to get them faster and faster... they have done with the A380, with the A350 and now with the B777X... then in a while they will say that the performance and fuel burn and weight is worse than promised by the manufacturers.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 7:56 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 11):

Maybe, but this is EK. I don't think that Airbus or Boeing view customers as one being higher or greater than another but I think they would listen to what Tim Clark has to say sooner than n they would, say Aeroflot. They have 777's rolling in almost every two weeks, that says something.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 8:05 pm

If/when Emirates stumbles, the effects will reverberate through out aviation.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 8:41 pm

Quoting Skippy777 (Thread starter):
Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Doesn't everyone want Santa Claus arrive early? But that doesn't mean he will....


Quoting rotating14 (Reply 7):
I'm curious, with all the attention its getting (777x that it is) why cant Boeing approach the board sooner to get the approval they need to start??

Others here have offered excellent reasons for not doing so but I will offer this:
I'm sure the Boeing sales people are pushing to get it to them as fast as possible but I suspect (hope  ) that Boeing has learned from the issues with the 787 not to run more quickly than the engineering and fact finding.

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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 8:41 pm

The name of the game is not making the 77X just as good as the A350-1000, but significantly and uniquely better. It takes time, especially when Boeing is looking at a new wing, power plants, material, etc. It's hard to compete on price alone, and easier on value.

[Edited 2012-05-14 14:35:19]
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Mon May 14, 2012 9:53 pm

Nothing surprises me in that article, it is just fact. If the A350 runs up 787 levels of delays, EK will buy more Boeings, perhaps even the 789.    If Boeing doesn't produce the 777X, EK will naturally bias their fleet expansion towards the A380 and A350. EK has made the A380 work where many said it wouldn't. Now imagine what happens once A380 production hits its stride (stop laughing. It will one day.)

EK is in expansion mode.

Quoting Skippy777 (Reply 2):
and there must be a point that you don't grow anymore

Why? There is a tremendous amount of business waiting for growth. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand will have a stunning number of individuals enter the middle class over the next 20 years and for flights to Europe, EK is well positioned. The same is true of China, India, and Russia. I also expect some significant progress in Africa. (I've been reading some good news on vaccines that should give them a quick 'leg up.')

I didn't even mention mid-east growth. We could discuss how the 'arab-spring' could be predicted by prior political unrest when the population crosses certain prosperity thresholds without sufficient political influence. The mid-east is a fast growing market. TK and EK will duke it out for a long time.    Oh, QR and EY will also be competitors, I'm just of the opinion TK and EK are the two strongest in this fight.

Instead of being boxed in with non-expansion, DWC will be built with 5 runways. (Are the rumors true that rail to the port is part of the reason for the loss of the 6th runway?) That will allow EK to grow to about 150 million passengers per year.

From a demand side, I see EK could about quadruple their size in 20 years. From a facilities side... maybe a little less (it all depends on the consequences of Dubai's high debt and ability to build out DWC). From a fuel side, I'm not a Malthusian. If oil hits $200/bbl, the flood gates of alternate fuels, nuclear (to reduce non-aviation demand), and exploration will ratchet up.

Also, EK's major competitors seem to like handicapping themselves. (Curfews, lack of airport expansion, etc.) If an airport isn't expanded, that means that the new flights are less likely to happen or an old destination is dropped. Either way, a potential market for a fast adapting hubbing carrier then opens up.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 6):
Dubai and the rest of the Middle East is not going to slip away back into obscurity and nor are their airlines. There is still potential for huge amounts of air travel growth in the region and nothing to indicate it's not achievable. Growth will eventually slow, but stop altogether - well I very much doubt it in the foreseeable future.

I consider it more likely one of the competitors (or more) will fade away. While QR and EY have funds to compete with EK, their host governments do not seem to want to open up rules (work visas, booze laws, etc.) to compete fully with "Dubai inc."

Dubai needs to fix a few things (e.g., provide more low cost housing at lower population density), they are a preferred location (for the region) for many reasons.

Quoting migair54 (Reply 11):
It´s EK standard to "complain or talk" about every single plane and try to get them faster and faster...

You forgot to mention order in program economics changing quantities.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):
I think they would listen to what Tim Clark has to say sooner than n they would, say Aeroflot. They have 777's rolling in almost every two weeks, that says something.

And Time Clark could order a few dozen more pretty quickly. Or TC could make another program. EK has options due to their ability to sell bonds at reasonable interest rates. (Mostly due to their profits.)

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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 12:00 am

Europe (continental and island) and North America (continental, latin and island nations) represent about 18% of the world population.

There is another 82% of the world's population ready to fly and EK is readily poised! Well it would be a stretch to say they are poised for South America, but that only represents 6%. So lets say that EK is well positioned for the remaining 78% of the world's population.

Sometimes as Europeans and NorthAmericans, we can become a little myopic about global possibilities. EK is not. The number of A380s and 777s they are going to have in 10 years boggles the imagination.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 12:14 am

Quoting ua76heavy (Reply 15):
Quote:
The name of the game is not making the 77X just as good as the A350-1000, but significantly and uniquely better. It takes time, especially when Boeing is looking at a new wing, power plants, material, etc. It's hard to compete on price alone, and easier on value.

  

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-damps-sales-as-airlines-shun-wait

Looks like they are trying to pump them out faster than they can take the orders but the public doesn't want to wait that long. But what else is there beyond the 777 in its respective market??
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 12:50 am

If the demand is so strong for the 777X from loyal 777 customers like EK (add BA, SQ, CX, etc.) it is only a matter of time for Boeing to launch this. I'm sure the boys and girls in Chicago are talking to the airlines regarding this product and will make a decision in due time. Boeing dropped the ball on the NEO and Airbus killed them in initial sales. I think Boeing is more focused on widebody aircraft and will go forward with the 777X after talking to key suppliers (especially engine makers). Also, Boeing will need to evaluate this with regards to the 787 program and see if there is any potential canibalization of this aircraft.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 1:45 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 18):

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-damps-sales-as-airlines-shun-wait

Looks like they are trying to pump them out faster than they can take the orders but the public doesn't want to wait that long. But what else is there beyond the 777 in its respective market??

Stitch posted a similar article in another thread. With the wide body 777 and A330/380 sold out for the next few years? I wonder if we will indeed see some 748 sales soon? The only other choice would be to take more 767's if you need a WB right now...
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rotating14
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 5:40 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 20):

But doesn't that open up another can of worms?? Wouldn't carriers need to have close to every seat filled in order to make it work as far as CASM goes? I'm just going on a limb here...
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 7:24 am

Quoting ua76heavy (Reply 15):
The name of the game is not making the 77X just as good as the A350-1000, but significantly and uniquely better.

Seems to me the name of the game is DXB-LAX. The whole 77X thing is being driven by EK's desire for more effcient metal on that and simlar (South America?) routes. Practically any 77X literature in the media comes with some form of reference to EK's DXB-LAX. Funny how much influence one airline -if not one route- can have...


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nethkt
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 8:24 am

And the romance of having petroleum under your feet lives on.....

Only if there is no need for petrochemical products....
Let's just blame it on yields.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 8:36 am

But Dubai is running out of oil so they focus on tourism
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 8:39 am

Quoting nethkt (Reply 23):
Only if there is no need for petrochemical products....

Just wondering if you have been to Dubai? If you have you would know the UAE is more about tourism than anything else.

The amount of great things in Dubai boggles the mind. I could stay there a week and not even touch the sides on the stuff there is to do.


Plus, Emirates gets their petroleum products from the same place and refineries as everyone else. So Emirates getting fuel discounts is a crock.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 8:47 am

Is this thread going to be this week's inevitable instalment of the same anti-Emirates stuff?
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 9:01 am

Quoting Skippy777 (Thread starter):
They are making less money and still want more aircrafts
The money must run out one day also in Dubai

I smell a bit of anger in these words... We should stay by the facts...

That being said, I think that they post 3 digit million profits to date, so probably the money doesn't run out from Dubai, instead they have collected this money from the rest of the world, so the money flows TO Dubai, not OUT.

Apart from that, is widely known that EK's strategy on buying planes is very aggressive (thus they have a good discount), as probably is their selling strategy, before the plane gets inefficient or has too much MX. Probably before they get the last A380 on order, they will already sold the first one they got.

Cheers,
R.

[Edited 2012-05-15 02:44:43]
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 9:03 am

Quoting ZKOKQ (Reply 25):

And not to mention the "oil reserves" are running out... The long term plan for DXB survival was tourism to fall back on when reserves run dry...

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Quokkas
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 10:11 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 28):
The long term plan for DXB survival was tourism to fall back on when reserves run dry...

Dubai does not wish to put all its eggs in the one basket of tourism. Tourism is certainly a major part of the mix but not the complete story by a longshot.

Dubai has set itself the goal of becoming a major trading entrepôt, trans-shipment centre, financial centre and a hub for regional offices of international corporations, including IT companies like Oracle, Microsoft and media companies like CNN, AP, etc. Dubai is also fostering pharmaceutical companies, medical and genetic research companies, among others.

Emirates plays a vital role in that diversification of the Dubai economy so it is not surprising that TC is constantly urging improvements in aircraft and speedy deliveries.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 4:08 pm

But Emirates is already having the latest aircrafts, it looks to me that they want to be the first customer in everything.
I think that Emirates want things before they are even invented  
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 4:09 pm

Quoting Skippy777 (Reply 30):
I think that Emirates want things before they are even invented.  

What they want is something that will do what they need. If that thing does not currently exist, then they want someone to invent it.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 4:28 pm

I think the whole goal is EK doesn't want Boeing to be late on it. They want a 77X by 201X and their not going to budge on it. That's how it should be when you buy almost 100 wide bodies on a single order.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 4:47 pm

Things would be much easier for Boeing if they could just raise the MTOW by 10 tons, but as the 777-300ER is already at the limit for a number of reasons (tire loading, tire speed, wing loading, etc.). Closing in on a decade since first flight, I imagine Boeing has pulled out what weight they can without making significant materials changes.

Now if GE could make the GE90-115B burn 10% less fuel at cruise, Boeing arguably would not need to do anything, as that would allow EK to lower their fuel load by 13+ tons for DXB-LAX, which should recover the payload they want.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 5:01 pm

So the 748i is definately not an option, hhhhhhhhhmmmmmmm, I recall something similar when that a/c was being developed and Boeing resisted all efforts to re-do the design.
Does sort of put a crimp in the line up if the 748i is supposed to be above the 777 but we are still upsizing the 777 to eventually render the 748i obsolete - in Boeing line up not public line up -.
If they develop the 777 closer to the 748i so soon will they have given the 748i sufficient time to "prove herself" as an efficient 4 holer?
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 34):
So the 748i is definately not an option

I don't see this as surprising; clearly, with over 90 (possibly 100 by now?) 777s in service, they like the type. Why jump ship when there is the prospect of squeezing more out of a design which has served them so well; EK has built (most of) its success on widebody twins - from the A310/A310, through the A332, 772, to the current latest - the 77W (and of course, the A359, but that's another thread!).

Now, if you were EK, what would you want to do? You know a two engine long hauler can handle virtually every/any conceivable route you could possibly operate, but on some ULR routes - such as LAX, there are some capacity constraints and of course, you want to be able to carry more pax and more freight, further and more economically. Now, with that in mind, why would you possibly want to look at the 748i, when the possibility exists of pushing the 777 further? EK has issued its spec and has no doubt discussed it with Boeing, which is no doubt looking into it very carefully and discussing it with others, like BA, CX, SQ etc etc., to get the critical mass to launch it.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 35):
Now, if you were EK, what would you want to do?
Quoting kaitak (Reply 35):
Now, with that in mind, why would you possibly want to look at the 748i, when the possibility exists of pushing the 777 further?

The basis of this thread is time, as in the A350 long running thread time is of the essence, A350-1000 are not being ordered and some cancelled because the production line is already sold out to something like 7 years.

So EK can get additional A380's or 748i when as compared to an as yet undefined 777X.

Time is the issue.
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 8:58 pm

Would the 748i be able to do Emirates LAX route as they want? Or is it too heavy and has 4 engines? If Boeing can get 2-3t out of the frame and GE PIPs the engines to spec or better, it should be a very decent long range hauler?
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 9:06 pm

Isn't there a problem for A and B, if the likes of EK turn over their vast fleet very quickly. 50 fairly new 77Ws on the market would be healthy competition for sales of new 777s and A350s?
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Tue May 15, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 37):
Would the 748i be able to do Emirates LAX route as they want?

The original range at MZFW was 6250nm (500nm more than the 777-300ER) with about 10% more payload. Range is now down to 5900nm (due to the extra empty weight and SFC miss), but payload is up 6t and is now 12t more than a 777-300ER at MZFW.

With the payload EK wants for the 777-300ER, a 747-8 would actually end up being fuel volume limited - it could fill it's tanks and not reach the certified MTOW.



Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 38):
Isn't there a problem for A and B, if the likes of EK turn over their vast fleet very quickly. 50 fairly new 77Ws on the market would be healthy competition for sales of new 777s and A350s?

Perhaps. EK's oldest frame is just over 6 years. Their lease rates are 12 years, so assuming the same for ownership, that would put the following up for re-sale:

2018 - 04
2019 - 01
2020 - 06
2021 - 08
2022 - 03
2023 - 11
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Wed May 16, 2012 10:31 am

Some related news about the 777NG in this article . Decision (about formal launch? or authority to offer?) could be Q4 2012, for both 777NG and 787-10X. Development parallel for both models, but will not start after it has completed the 787-9.

Not really surprising timeline for the 777NG, but I had expected a formal launch of the 787-10 earlier (Farnborough!). Guess Boeing wants firm orders at launch.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
EK's oldest frame is just over 6 years. Their lease rates are 12 years, so assuming the same for ownership, that would put the following up for re-sale:

2018 - 04
2019 - 01
2020 - 06
2021 - 08
2022 - 03
2023 - 11

OK, that explains why EK wants the 777NG to EIS 2018. Now, I think they can't really expect them as early as that, but extending their leases by about 2 years for the oldest 4-5 frames shouldn't be a show stopper. But I also think EK wants guaranteed delivery by 2020. Should be realistic.
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Wed May 16, 2012 8:18 pm

What is more important for EK ? the number of Pax or the range of the aircrafts
 
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RE: Emirates Urges Boeing To Move Fast On 777

Wed May 16, 2012 9:14 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
2018 - 04
2019 - 01
2020 - 06
2021 - 08
2022 - 03
2023 - 11

EK was talking about rotating 77W's out of their fleet earlier. I though they had frames on shorter lease terms too?

Quoting Skippy777 (Reply 41):

What is more important for EK ? the number of Pax or the range of the aircrafts

Both, depending on the missions.

EK is going to eventually consolidate to three aircraft types:
A380
777
A350

They will buy among them based on CASM and performance. DXB-North America and Australia takes range. Most of their missions do not require an aircraft with the range of the A380 or 77W. At that point it is payload.

Lightsaber
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