swaluvfa
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DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 5:54 pm

Delta has around 155 B757-200s in its current fleet. What do you think the long term replacement plan is for the entire fleet of 155? Given the 100 B739s DL has on order, do you think it will be more B739s? Or possibly a large order of A321NEOs?

I personally would love to see a large A321NEO order as the a/c is more spacious and more similar to the B757 than the B739.

Thanks!
 
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seabosdca
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 6:00 pm

Quoting SWALUVFA (Thread starter):
What do you think the long term replacement plan is for the entire fleet of 155?

739ER for the older standard domestic 757s.
737 MAX 9 or A321neo, yet to be determined, for the newer and ETOPS domestic 757s.
"Wait and see" for the international fleet, which has a good 15 years left in it.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 6:02 pm

I'd expect the 737-9 MAX to replace the remaining domestic 757s. Not sure about the international 757s since there is no replacement on the horizon.
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roseflyer
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 6:06 pm

Delta has not decided on the 737MAX or A320NEO models. They have not ordered either. I speculate it is more likely to go to the 737 based on the fact that they just ordered 739ERs, so they seem relatively committed to the 737NG. However other customers have flipped, so I would expect them to put out a competitive bid between the two and pick whichever model works best for them.

The 757s can be replaced by a range of 737MAX or A320NEO models. Airplanes aren't replaced one for one either.
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lhcvg
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 6:14 pm

Part of that I think will be dictated by Boeing's recently discussed possible new narrowbody/757 replacement (i.e., not just expanding and tweaking the 737MAX). That would be a game-changer. But sans that, we'll probably see 739s and 739MAXs replacing the 757s on all but the routes where the 757 is absolutely essential. As 739s come on property, the eldest and most troublesome frames will be parked, and the best ones will progressively shift to international duties and whatever domestic routes they are essential for. AFAIK both the 739MAX and A321NEO will still fall short of the 757's top end performance, so there won't be a complete retirement for the forseeable future unless Boeing produces that direct 757 replacement, or we some hot-rod version of either that would bridge the gap.

EDIT: apologies about the redundant comments; my browser stalled there while I was submitting the post.

[Edited 2012-05-17 11:16:11]
 
sweair
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 6:57 pm

What do you think is in Boeing's mind regarding the 757 replacement? A souped up MAX-9?

Airbus had a good middle range WB in the A310, trim some weight and hang some modern engines on it...could be a great TATL shuttle. It wont need more range than say 4500nm. It would soundly beat a 788 TATL  
 
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Stitch
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 7:01 pm

Having just placed a 100-frame 737-900ER order for the initial tranche of 757-200s, I would expect the 737-9 has the inside track for the second tranche.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Thu May 17, 2012 7:42 pm

DL has said in various statements that the 739s are to replace 320s, 757s, and 767s.
What gets measured gets done.
 
Yukon880
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 12:59 am

Given that DL is very opportunistic when it comes to airframes, all we need is a sweet set of new motors for the 757. Because there isn't a 737 or 321 made, that can lift and range what a 757-200 can. Especially if you want to carry some 15K pounds (or better) of revenue cargo in the belly.
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1337Delta764
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 1:01 am

Quoting Yukon880 (Reply 8):
Given that DL is very opportunistic when it comes to airframes, all we need is a sweet set of new motors for the 757. Because there isn't a 737 or 321 made, that can lift and range what a 757-200 can. Especially if you want to carry some 15K pounds (or better) of revenue cargo in the belly.

Hmm, could a GEnx or Trent 1000 shrink work?

[Edited 2012-05-17 18:02:07]
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n7371f
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 1:04 am

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 4):
Part of that I think will be dictated by Boeing's recently discussed possible new narrowbody/757 replacement (i.e., not just expanding and tweaking the 737MAX). That would be a game-changer

Actually Boeing did some clarifying following CEO McNerney's comments, which did make it sound like an all-new aircraft. The Boeing PR follow was McNerney was not speaking about an all-new sheet aircraft but unique opportunities to fill the gap with the MAX-9. One aviation writer sumized possible weight reduction and increased thrust special versions of the MAX-9 for Europe ETOPS. Purely speculative of course...but Boeing did spin down the original comments.
 
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American 767
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 2:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Having just placed a 100-frame 737-900ER order for the initial tranche of 757-200s

Doesn't mean anything. Look at American, they have now a rather large fleet of 738s and they have ordered 100 737-8s. On top of all that, they ordered A319s and A321s in large number. Before placing that order, everybody thought American would replace MD-80s in the long run only with NG737s and...look what happened.
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richiemo
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 3:11 am

Well...let's hope we don't have to sweat this issue anytime soon. It will be a sad day when there are no 57s flying the skies, Delta or otherwise. Still, IMO, the most handsome plane in the sky.
 
milesrich
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 3:46 am

Quoting American 767 (Reply 11):
Doesn't mean anything. Look at American, they have now a rather large fleet of 738s and they have ordered 100 737-8s. On top of all that, they ordered A319s and A321s in large number. Before placing that order, everybody thought American would replace MD-80s in the long run only with NG737s and...look what happened.

You cannot use the order of an airline about to file Chapter 11 that did file Chapter 11 as an example or a model to predict the behavior of financially sold carriers. TWA ordered A-318's and A-340's to replace DC-9's and L-1011's and 747's too.
 
sweair
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 8:57 am

A 739ER with fold able wing tips? Engines will be harder as it has such low ground clearance.

I think the A321 has a better chance of becoming a true 752 replacement, more lift, thrust and you´re there..3900nm, I would aim a bit higher as the 757 has trouble some flights.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 12:49 pm

Quoting milesrich (Reply 13):
You cannot use the order of an airline about to file Chapter 11 that did file Chapter 11 as an example or a model to predict the behavior of financially sold carriers. TWA ordered A-318's and A-340's to replace DC-9's and L-1011's and 747's too.

I thought they ordered the A330, not the 340
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727forever
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 1:28 pm

DL has so many 757-200's that were ordered in different groups that they will slowly be replaced over the next 15-20 years also in little batches. The 739ER will do most of the work that the 752 does, but for that last 15% of flying that it simply isn't capable of one has to look at what type of role will it need. I see 3 requirements that currently push the 752 to near limits.

1. Must be able to fly DKR-JFK while full with a fair amount of cargo.
2. Must be able to fly MEX-JFK while full in the summer.
3. Must be able to fly JAC-ATL while full both summer and winter.

From what i've read, the 739ER can not do any of these nor does it appear that the 737-9 will be able to either.

727forever
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Btblue
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 1:41 pm

If the MAX is more fuel efficient, offering better savings, range, etc etc... why on earth would they order 100 old generation jets? Isn't that like saying we'll take the 747-300 over the 400...?
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AngMoh
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 2:04 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 17):

If the MAX is more fuel efficient, offering better savings, range, etc etc... why on earth would they order 100 old generation jets? Isn't that like saying we'll take the 747-300 over the 400...?

Because for Delta and with the way they calculate the business case, capital investment reduction (i.e. a low purchase price) is more important than flying the most fuel efficient plane in the sky.
 
lhcvg
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 2:39 pm

Quoting n7371f (Reply 10):
Actually Boeing did some clarifying following CEO McNerney's comments, which did make it sound like an all-new aircraft. The Boeing PR follow was McNerney was not speaking about an all-new sheet aircraft but unique opportunities to fill the gap with the MAX-9. One aviation writer sumized possible weight reduction and increased thrust special versions of the MAX-9 for Europe ETOPS. Purely speculative of course...but Boeing did spin down the original comments.

I was not aware of that. Thanks for the follow up! What you describe there is what I figured is the best business case - a "737+" a la A350-1000 where it sacrifices some level of commonality with the rest of the line for that necessary performance to reach the top-right corner of the performance graph. Surely that is much more cost-effective than a true clean-sheet design.
 
compensateme
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 2:39 pm

Delta has a significant number of 757 delivered in the early 2000s, including the entire -300 fleet. These aircraft will be in the fleet for many, many years.
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 5:51 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 20):

{Checkmark}

Includes the higher numbered 6XX a/c and the newest PMDL 757s numbered 6XXX.
What gets measured gets done.
 
alitis
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 11:34 pm

Quoting 727forever (Reply 16):
DL has so many 757-200's that were ordered in different groups that they will slowly be replaced over the next 15-20 years also in little batches. The 739ER will do most of the work that the 752 does, but for that last 15% of flying that it simply isn't capable of one has to look at what type of role will it need. I see 3 requirements that currently push the 752 to near limits.

1. Must be able to fly DKR-JFK while full with a fair amount of cargo.
2. Must be able to fly MEX-JFK while full in the summer.
3. Must be able to fly JAC-ATL while full both summer and winter.

Dont forget EGE
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Fri May 18, 2012 11:41 pm

IDK what the long term plan would be for STT but right now they can only use a 73G in place of the 757. That would be a huge reduction in seats considering DL has had ATL-STT at 3x daily during certain times of the year (2x 757, 1x 73G on Saturdays) and 2x 757 for pretty much most of the year.
What gets measured gets done.
 
NWAROOSTER
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sat May 19, 2012 1:46 am

By the time Delta needs to replace it's late build 757-200s and 757-351s both Boeing and Airbus should have a suitable replacement aircraft ready to do the job.   
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B757Forever
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sat May 19, 2012 2:34 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 20):
Delta has a significant number of 757 delivered in the early 2000s, including the entire -300 fleet. These aircraft will be in the fleet for many, many years.

Agreed. There are 23 757-200 and 16 757-300 aircraft that were delivered in 2000 or later. The oldest ETOPS frames are all later 1990s builds, with the exception of ships 6901-6904 and 6818. The domestic frames in dire need of replacement will soon be replaced with the 737-900ER. I estimate DL has close to 10 years to make a decision on replacement of the ETOPS aircraft.
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sat May 19, 2012 4:33 am

Quoting B757forever (Reply 25):
The oldest ETOPS frames are all later 1990s builds, with the exception of ships 6901-6904 and 6818

Actually, the oldest ETOPS 752s are the 4 75Vs that run LAX-Hawaii. In fact, they are THE oldest 757s in the combined PMDL/PMNW fleet.
What gets measured gets done.
 
B757Forever
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sat May 19, 2012 1:41 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 26):
In fact, they are THE oldest 757s in the combined PMDL/PMNW fleet.

That they are! The 75V aircraft (ships 6901-6904) are 757-212s originally delivered in Sept -Dec 1984. Ship 6818 is an April 1993 delivery.
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SkyTeamTriStar
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 4:43 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 17):
If the MAX is more fuel efficient, offering better savings, range, etc etc... why on earth would they order 100 old generation jets? Isn't that like saying we'll take the 747-300 over the 400...?

Totally agreed. I suppose DL can't wait for the 737 MAX to get launched?
 
B757Forever
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting SkyTeamTriStar (Reply 28):
why on earth would they order 100 old generation jets?

They do not have the time to wait for Max availability. DL has some mid 1980s deliverd 757 aircraft that need replacement very soon. The 737-900ER that replaces the 757 is a huge operational savings via greater efficiency. I think the price DL got on them played a part as well.
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Stitch
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 17):
If the MAX is more fuel efficient, offering better savings, range, etc etc... why on earth would they order 100 old generation jets?

Compared to an MD-80 or a 1980's-vintage 757-200, a 737-900ER is likely a significant step-up in efficiency.


Both Boeing and Airbus are going to need orders of their "old generation" 737NGs and A320s to keep those lines filled until the MAX and neo arrive.  
 
strfyr51
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 5:12 pm

I'd LOVE to see boeing re-evaluate the 757 series with a new wider single aisle like 8-10"wider with new longer range capability to make MAD- IAD or FRA- ORD range
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting SkyTeamTriStar (Reply 28):
Totally agreed. I suppose DL can't wait for the 737 MAX to get launched?

The MAX does not jive with the fleet replacement plan in place at current. You're looking at 2017-2018 at a minimum if everything goes as planned and they have many 757s pushing 40,000 cycles. And again i'd like to repeat that Delta themselvs said that this order will replace 320s, 757s, and 767s. It is a very aggressive and fast delivery schedule so the savings should be realized rather quickly.

Quoting B757forever (Reply 29):
They do not have the time to wait for Max availability.

  

Quoting B757forever (Reply 29):
The 737-900ER that replaces the 757 is a huge operational savings via greater efficiency.

  

The 757 is too much a/c for he bulk of the routes DL operates them on. Almost everything ATL-XXX save for LAX/SFO/SEA due to the lost cargo potential. But at the end of the day, narrowbody belly cargo does not pay the bills. It's only icing on the cake. I'm not intimate with UA's layouts so I looked at seat guru and according to it, they operate their 900s in a 20FC 153 YC config. Standard run of the mill PMDL 757s operate in a 24FC 156YC config so near identical.

Quoting B757forever (Reply 29):
I think the price DL got on them played a part as well.

Aquisition cost was a HUGE part of the deal. IDK what the figure was but Ed/Richard said it kept them in line with their annual capex goals.
What gets measured gets done.
 
laca773
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 8:03 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 11):

Doesn't mean anything. Look at American, they have now a rather large fleet of 738s and they have ordered 100 737-8s. On top of all that, they ordered A319s and A321s in large number. Before placing that order, everybody thought American would replace MD-80s in the long run only with NG737s and...look what happened.

The A319s are going to fill a large gap in the AA fleet where the MD80s are going to be retired and the next a/c is the 738s which have too much capacity for a fair number of markets as does the M80s. I thought we'd see AA go with the 73G since they have a large 738 fleet, but it seems AA saw something better with the A319 and it performing better than the 73G now and in the future.
The A321-200s do have a better engine now that they came out with the 200 series and are much more reliable doing transcons now (US has had a lot of history in this department with their A321s, old and now the new more advanced versions.).
I've always wondered if Airbus gave AA a deal of a lifetime to go with these birds versus the 73G, and 73J (737-900ERs),

Quoting sweair (Reply 14):
think the A321 has a better chance of becoming a true 752 replacement, more lift, thrust and you´re there..3900nm, I would aim a bit higher as the 757 has trouble some flights.

The A321 and A321NEO as well as the 73J and 737-900ER MAX, can't become a true 752 replacement. Passenger capacity wise, yes, but not on performance. I'm not a engineer but have learned a great deal over the years, and it's pretty clear the 757 series are a totally different a/c period. It's a much bigger bird in terms of size and weight while the 73G and A32X are basically streches of a lighter weight narrowbody that happened to have their start with short, medium hall which have now entered longer range, transcons and limited over water routes.
For either of these a/c to be a "true replacement", they would need major changes to the structure, engines and etc..
 
BDL757
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 32):
And again i'd like to repeat that Delta themselvs said that this order will replace 320s, 757s, and 767s. It is a very aggressive and fast delivery schedule so the savings should be realized rather quickly.

How quickly when the 739ers come will DL start to take A320s, 757s, and 767s out of service? Is DL looking to get rid of the domestic 767 fleet?
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Sun May 20, 2012 10:09 pm

Quoting BDL757 (Reply 34):
How quickly when the 739ers come will DL start to take A320s, 757s, and 767s out of service? Is DL looking to get rid of the domestic 767 fleet?

IDK what the pulldown actually looks like but 100 a/c in 4 years is a pretty aggressive schedule.
What gets measured gets done.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: DL's Long Term 757 Replacement Plan?

Mon May 21, 2012 4:24 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 35):
IDK what the pulldown actually looks like but 100 a/c in 4 years is a pretty aggressive schedule.

Aircraft will be retired as the reach the next heavy maintenance interval. Other aircraft in the fleet will move in and out of storage keep capacity and the number of active aircraft in balance.

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