boeingfever777
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British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 6:29 am

I know they placed firm order for (57) between 1989 & 1999 and have taken deliveries on them since 1999 on (57). Question is: What is BA planning looking to replace their 744 fleet with when they fly their miles? The oldest is pushing 23-24yr old. Is BA looking towards the 748I, 77W, or 787? I know they ordered(12) firm a380 but his is not the bulk of their long haul fleet but thye could look toward Airbus for replacement. T



Thoughts?
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aloges
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 7:26 am

They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

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Photo © Ashley French

two purchased, four leased and four options AFAIK

As for a A350/787/777X decision, it hasn't been made yet: British Airways To Seek Boeing, Airbus Bids.
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PHX787
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 7:34 am

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

How long will they be in service? IIRC didn't one of them crash?
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PM
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 7:40 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
IIRC didn't one of them crash?

YDNRC  

The plane pictured is a 777-300ER:

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
two purchased, four leased and four options

The plane that flopped just short of the runway at LHR was a 777-200ER of which BA have many more.
 
columba
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 7:41 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
IIRC didn't one of them crash?

A 777-200s was writtten-off.
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Calpe
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 7:57 am

I think BA have also converted two of their four options on the 77W which I have heard are for delivery next year, I wonder if they will convert the final two options soon now they have the BD slots to play with.
 
gilesdavies
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 11:24 am

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
24 787s on order

These are to replace the 767-300s, where they currently have a fleet of 21, which were introduced from 1991...

I am sure I remember some time back the airline said they did not require so many large aircraft as the 747-400 going forward and hence the smaller order for the A380's.

I would imagine the airline going forward, might see a top up order of A380's to bring the fleet up to maybe 20 aircraft, to run the high capacity long haul routes.

I would imagine the majority of 747-400's will be replaced with further large twin jets along the size of the 777-300, but the airline will hold off ordering these until they know what Boeing's plans are for an improved 777-300, that the likes of Emirates are pushing them for. I could see BA being a launch customer.

I think the A350-900/1000 is possible, but unlikely in the fleet. As if the airline can maintain the commonality with their exisiting 777's and replace them over the years like for like with a newer upgraded model, they will.
 
qf002
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 11:31 am

They could go two ways:

1. A350-900 as a 77E replacement, along with a few A350-1000's to replace those 744's not replaced by the A380.

2. B787-9 as a 77E replacement, along with a few B787-10's to replace Atlantic/African 744's with the rest replaced with the 777X and the A380.

Having said that, there are really quite a few of possibilities, and IAG means that BA might be able to get bit of everything to cover all their bases. We could see a fleet that includes a bit of everything, including the 787, A350, 777X and A380.
 
Lofty
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 11:59 am

BA do not like to be launch customer as history shows things can and do go wrong better to be a couple of years behind and get planes that work.
 
bthebest
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 12:03 pm

As this thread is about the 744 specifically, I wouldn't expect to see anything less than the A350-1000 replacing it, where 777X is above it.

I think BA have timed it well really, as they've got the A380s (777W) to replace the oldest 744 then they can wait and see how the A359 comes out and what Boeing are doing with the 777X before deciding on the rest. They'll also have seen the 747-8I in service so might consider that as well.

By the time they're looking to replace the rest of the 744s they'll also be looking at the early 777s by which time the 789 and A358 will have been in service for a while making that decision easier.

The only problem they'll have is trying to bulk orders with IB, but that won't be a problem too soon as their A340s are still quite new, and they've got A330s replacing the -300s.
 
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 12:03 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 7):
They could go two ways:

1. A350-900 as a 77E replacement, along with a few A350-1000's to replace those 744's not replaced by the A380.

2. B787-9 as a 77E replacement, along with a few B787-10's to replace Atlantic/African 744's with the rest replaced with the 777X and the A380.

Seems to me you've got it spot on there.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 7):
Having said that, there are really quite a few of possibilities, and IAG means that BA might be able to get bit of everything to cover all their bases. We could see a fleet that includes a bit of everything, including the 787, A350, 777X and A380.

Within the IAG Group, both 787/777X and A359/A35J is a strong possibility. But, I would think (for example) 787/777X at BA and A350 at IB, I can't see BA operate both 777X and A350.

I still don't completely rule out 748i's at IB, though it must be a very small chance - only if they need 4-holers to replace their A340's.

In another thread, CX_Flyboy reported CX is bleeding heavily with their 744 operations to Europe, and they are not the only airline to do so. It wouldn't surprise me if BA has to replace their 744s earlier than 2018/2019, when the next A350-1000 production slots become available (if not further delayed). And with the 777X not even being launched, BA may very well be forced to add a lot more 77W's....
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GCT64
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 12:53 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):
I would imagine the airline going forward, might see a top up order of A380's to bring the fleet up to maybe 20 aircraft, to run the high capacity long haul routes.

I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.

However, in the nearer term I would agree with this statement that more 77Ws, whether bought or leased, look likely:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 10):
It wouldn't surprise me if BA has to replace their 744s earlier than 2018/2019, when the next A350-1000 production slots become available (if not further delayed). And with the 777X not even being launched, BA may very well be forced to add a lot more 77W's....
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vv701
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 1:01 pm

There is always a tendency to discuss the direct replacement of aircraft. Yet when you operate like BA usually operate by buying new aircraft and keeping them flying for most if not all their operational lives, direct replacements may not be a totally accurate description of what is required.

For example 741 G-AWNE was put into service by BOAC in March 1971. It was retired by BA more trhan 28 years later at the end of October 1999. By then it had 107,267 hrs and 22,492 cycles on its clock.

My point here is that in almost 30 years total passenger demand, passenger routes flown, flight frequencies and virtually every parameter you could think of had changed significantly. And you would have pretty clever to have forecast those changes with any accuracy back before November 1968 which was when BOAC ordered 'WE and eleven other 747s.

Despite the above when an aircraft is nearing the end of its useful life it does require replacing. And the tendency is to assume that since there will have been growth in passenger numbers over the years that replacement will be with a larger aircraft. So will the BA 744 replacement be the 380, the 748i or, just possibly, the 77W or its successor?

However IAG / BA management may see the future differently. And some of that future will be constrained or determined by the actions of others. For example will the British Government decide to approve the construction of a new four-runway London airport in the Thames estuary or, possibly, somewhere else? Or will LHR still be London's main airport with just two operational runways in fifteen years time? This factor alone could make the difference between replacing an aging fleet of 744s with a new fleet of 380s or a new fleet of, perhaps, 787s or 350s.

Alternatively they may give up on a British Government ever making its mind up on the future of commercial aviation in the south east of England. So they could buy a fleet of aircraft to fly passengers from the regions into LHR and then out on a few key direct, high density routes such as LHR-JFK, to their new mega hub at MAD and to key European destinations.

In other words IAG'S / BA's management's view of future British Government's actions could play a key role in determining what sized aircraft BA will order.

I am glad that I do not have to make the decision. But if I was forced to do so I would assume that the current and future British Governments would - like their predecessors since the Wing / Cublington replacement London airport was proposed and detailed plans for it formulated in the late 1960s - be indecisive. So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights and buy the 350 or 77W or the Boeing 777 replacement to operate high-frequency direct flights to key long haul destinations such as BOM, DFW, GRU, JFK, MIA and PEK and out of LGW to the most popular long haul holiday destinations.

In the (unlikely?) event of government approval for a second LGW runway being forthcoming everything, of course, would change.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 3:05 pm



Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

787 - replaces 767-300ER
a380 - order is small again compared to the (57) active 744's

When is the a350-1000 EIS date?

[Edited 2012-05-21 08:05:51]
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BlueSky1976
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 3:12 pm

Now that 777X is on the table, I strongly believe BA will be among launch customers. I expect all of BA's 744s to be replaced by the mix of options for A380s and new order for a whole bunch of 777-9Xs. Heck, BA might even go for 777-8X/777-8XLR/787-10X combo, once time comes to replace their "legacy" 777s.

Sorry, I don't quite see BA ordering A350XWB. Virgin Atlantic on the other hand...

[Edited 2012-05-21 08:14:11]
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skipness1E
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 3:19 pm

Quoting boeingfever777 (Reply 13):
a380 - order is small again compared to the (57) active 744's

52 active, two scrapped, three stored at Victorville, CA.
 
qf002
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights and buy the 350 or 77W or the Boeing 777 replacement to operate high-frequency direct flights to key long haul destinations such as BOM, DFW, GRU, JFK, MIA and PEK and out of LGW to the most popular long haul holiday destinations.

Such a scheme would mean BA loses virtually every advantage they have in their home LHR market. The slots that they vacate will be happily snapped up by the competition who will then proceed to (probably very rapidly) erode their core corporate market.

IMO we'll just see more of the same. The combined airline will probably try to focus more connecting continental traffic through MAD to relieve some of the pressure at LHR to allow for further growth, but we will see LHR remaining the core long haul airport for the group.

With this in mind, and the price of oil (which is only going to keep on going up over the lifetime of the next generation fleet), I'd expect a fleet with more steps in capacity so that BA/IB can both reduce inefficiencies and maximise profits. It really could go any way at this stage...
 
skipness1E
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 3:29 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights

Commercial suicide as well as politically a nightmare. You work for BA, you must know why that would fail.
 
goosebayguy
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 4:27 pm

Just think if the Thames Estuary airport is built BA could model itself on Emirates and use A380's for the majority of routes with 777w's for the rest?
 
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So will the BA 744 replacement be the 380, the 748i or, just possibly, the 77W or its successor?

I could see all three replacing the 744. The 77W for routes where cargo is an profitable (or more) than passengers. The A380 for heavy passenger routes. The 748i has good 'heavy payload' economics vs. the A380 and not as good of 'floorspace' economics. Thus, I could see the 748i replacing the LGW 744s. But might BA just replace them with 77W/777X and lower the risk of filling the plane? IMHO, the decision on the LGW 744s will seal the fate of a BA 748i.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
For example will the British Government decide to approve the construction of a new four-runway London airport in the Thames estuary or, possibly, somewhere else? Or will LHR still be London's main airport with just two operational runways in fifteen years time?

BA has an unusually tough fleet replacement plan depending if the Thames airport is built or not. If built, fragmentation would rule their fleet planning. If not, then gauge.

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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):

- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 11):
I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.
Quoting GCT64 (Reply 11):
I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.

I am sure BA will order more than 12+5 A380s eventually
 
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 5:43 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Thus, I could see the 748i replacing the LGW 744s. But might BA just replace them with 77W/777X and lower the risk of filling the plane? IMHO, the decision on the LGW 744s will seal the fate of a BA 748i.
Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 20):
- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....

One can dream though...
 
vv701
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 10:44 pm

Quoting Lofty (Reply 8):
BA do not like to be launch customer as history shows

This is one of those myths that are continuously perpetuated. History actually paints a different picture.

BA were, with EA, the launch customer for the 757 in March 1979. The 752 took to the air for the first time almost three years later in February 1982. It was to be another eleven months before the type entered service.

In August 1987 BA ordered eleven and took out options on another fifteen 763s powered by the RR RB 211-524H, an engine very similar to those powering its new 744s. The first of the BA ordered aircraft took to the air in May 1989. However it was retained by Boeing for eleven months for development and test flying as it was the first RR powered aircraft of its type.

In 1988 BA also ordered eight BAe ATPs soon after the first of the type had been delivered to British Midland in May of that year.

BA ordered 16 747-400s in August 1986. 30 months later in February 1989 the type entered service for the first time with NW. So again BA was an early orderer

In October 1988 BA ordered twenty-four 737s. Although this order was flexible for the 300, 400 or 500 model BA eventually opted for an all 737-400 fleet. This type first entered service with Piedmont. Service entry was also in October 1988. So again BA was an early customer and did not rely on other airlines' operatiuonal experience before ordering the type.

In August 1991 BA ordered 15 777s - five 772As and 10 772IGWs after they had accepted Boeing's December 1988 invitation to join with them and seven other major airlines to help define the characteristics of the proposed new long haul aircraft. The first flight of any 777 followed in June 1994 almost three years after the first BA order. Of course BA was not the "launch" customer. UA had ordered thirty-four in October 1990. But the aircraft had no proved performance when BA placed their order.

More recently BA ordered both the A380 and the B787 before either type had flown let alonbe entered service.

Of course BA was not an early customer for the A320, the A319, the A321, the A318 or the B737 200. But considering all the different types they have ordered, more had not entered commercial service at the date of their order than had already been in service at that date.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 17):
Commercial suicide as well as politically a nightmare.

Commercial suicide? Perhaps. But better than doing nothing and fading away. Do not expect the demand for air travel to stop growing. And if it does not and if government does not take the bull by the horns and cease the dithering of the last 45 years what other solution is there?

Excepting the unusual LCY runway the last new paved runway to be laid down in southeast England was inaugurated on 8 June 1958 by Queen Elizabeth. It was built on what was previously a grass airstrip and a racecourse. Today it remains LGW's only runway. Since it was opened the phenomenal growth in air transport has been on the same number of runways that existed in 1958. The gain of the new LCY runway was balanced by the loss of LHR's former Runway 05/23. It became useless as it crossed 09R/27L in front of T4.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 17):
You work for BA, you must know why that would fail.

I guess I should be flattered that you think at my age - see my profile - i work. Perhaps I should be even more flattered that you think I work for BA. But my only work involvement with any part of the aviation industry was as an airline passenger and, for a brief period in the early 1980s, as a supplier of an essential consumable to airlines and airframe and aeroengine manufacturers.

No. To me commercial aviation has only been a hobby dating back to my long cycle rides from home to sit on the grass on the north side of LHR in time to watch the early morning Stratocruisers and Connies finish their North Atlantic crossings.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Such a scheme would mean BA loses virtually every advantage they have in their home LHR market. The slots that they vacate will be happily snapped up by the competition who will then proceed to (probably very rapidly) erode their core corporate market.

In my suggestion I do not see BA operating any fewer LHR slots than they will after fully absorbing BD. Indeed I expect they will manage to add a few more most years as they have in all but one of the last ten years. However I do foresee a continued significant growth in passenger demand particularly to and fromboth existing and new long haul destinations particularly in the world's emerging economies. If this demand cannot be met by runway space in the UK then it will need to be met elsewhere.

I do not see IAG sitting back and letting AF/KL plus AMS and CDG, LH plus FRA and/or EK plus DXB (or its successor) ship passengers to and from their hubs from and to the UK in larger and larger aircraft without responding. Clearly a VLA shuttle service to IAG's other hub at MAD while retaining as many flights to key destinations from LHR as is possible is a better option than stagnation and surrendering market share to the competition.

Recognise here that last time BA was in the market for in a long haul fleet renewal programme few would have predicted that BA would be operating 7 744s, 3 772s and a 77W to NYC each and every day. But today they are.

How many flights will be needed to meet demand to NYC in another 25 years? And by then will no other destinations require the equivalent of four, five, six or even seven flights every day, be they direct or indirect? If they do then clearly if there is still no new runway in the southeast of England IAG / BA will need to find another solution to remain competitive. What's your suggestion if mine is so wrong?
 
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lightsaber
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 11:13 pm

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 20):
- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....

My bad. I thought BA has a high density 744 fleet. Am I incorrect? I assumed they would predominantly operate out of LGW. Does BA operate 744s out of LGW?

Lightsaber
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Mon May 21, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
Does BA operate 744s out of LGW?

All 772 for the long haul routes out of LGW the last I checked. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure it's all T7 out of LGW.
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aamd11
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
I thought BA has a high density 744 fleet.

They have "higher" density Mid-J configurations of 337 seats (in contrast to the Hi-J configuration of 291 seats), but these are by no means high density aircraft.  
 
vv701
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:42 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
I thought BA has a high density 744 fleet. Am I incorrect? I assumed they would predominantly operate out of LGW. Does BA operate 744s out of LGW?

BA operated the 747 out of LGW until June 2002.

At the start of the Summer 2002 Schedules BA had two 744s based at LGW, both operating LGW-MCO-LGW. This service became a 772 service on 10 June 2002 when one of the two 744s was transferred to LHR. The second was temporarily assigned to the LGW-BGI rotation. That aircraft (G-BNLN) operated the last scheduled BA 747 rotation out of LGW on 30 June 2002 before it too joined the LHR fleet.

There are no High density BA 744s. Their 'Mid J' aircraft are configured for 337 passengers (F14 / J52 / W36 /Y235). Their 'Hi J' 744s are configured for either 291 (F14 / J70 / W30 / Y177) or 298 passengers (F14 / J70 / W30 / Y185). Compare these configurations with those of the 744s operated by AF. They are high density being configured for 429 passengers (J40 / Y38). Thgey are primarilly operated on the high density routes between CDG and French Overseas Departments.

You may be thinking of the high density configuration of three 772 operated by Airline Management Ltd, a BA JV with Flying Colours, out of LGW. These three aircraft (G-VIIO, 'IP and 'IR) were operated in full BA livery and were configured for up to 383 passengers (J28 / M355). They operated to Caribbean holiday destinations with this configuration from when they were delivered new in the early1999 until mid year 2000. They were then returned to BA, reconfigured for 334 passengers (J42 / Y292) (plus three crew rest seats) and returned to LGW to operate to Caribbean and Florida holiday destinations.

By the start of the Summer 2005 Timetable these three aircraft had again been reconfigured. They now had seats for up to 280 passengers (J40 / W24 / Y219) (plus three crew rest seats) but still operated between LGW and Caribbean and Florida resorts.

The three original aircraft were joined by a fourth, G-VIIT, in November 2005 also configured for 280 passengers.

Here it might be worth mentioning that all the other BA 3-class 772s are configured for 275 passengers (J48 / W24 / Y203) so the 'high density' aircraft have not really been high density since they were refurbished back in 2005. For comparative purposes the AF 772s with the equivalent three cabins are configured for 307 passengers (J33 / W24 / Y250).
 
YYZAMS
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 1:22 am

I recently watched the documentary about how BA got their 747s that someone posted on here. How time flies and fleets modernize quickly.

Any documentary in the works on all these 747 replacements? BA A380 coming to mainline service doc would be cool.
 
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 2:14 am

Anybody else out there thinking that BA is so slow on the A380 (only 12 orders) because they want to wait until Airbus makes up their mind with the -900?
I kind of see the -900 better suited for BA than the -800 would be. Two reasons: congested LHR (although they own the largest share of slots there), and a networked focused on relatively few routes, but lucrative and very busy ones (JFK, HKG, NRT, etc...). Yes, I do know that frequency IS key on such routes, but such frequency is already quite maxed out, because an airline can have as much frequency as they want, they still can't get around the fact that some hours are preferred by most travelers, and flights timed less than ~ 2 hours apart on long-haul become quite meaningless. And some routes really only work well when run overnight both ways (JNB to only name one, and why one sees so many widebodies parked all day long there).
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qf002
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 4:26 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 23):
What's your suggestion if mine is so wrong?

Move IB upmarket, and use MAD as the hub for traffic currently connecting from BA's European services to BA's long haul services. Even if only half of BA's connecting traffic were able to be diverted through MAD over the next decade, the Group would be able to free up significant capacity in LHR to grow.

And gradually, as IB gains traction, more and more of BA's connecting traffic can be diverted through MAD as additional capacity is needed at LHR.

BA can then focus on their core British market, and access what connecting traffic they do need to fill their planes.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 5:14 am

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
s a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

I doubt that BA ordered as many as ten of these aircraft as a "stopgap." Ten is a respectable fleet of a type that many airlines only wish they could fly.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 23):
Clearly a VLA shuttle service to IAG's other hub at MAD while retaining as many flights to key destinations from LHR as is possible is a better option than stagnation and surrendering market share to the competition.

LHR-MAD is about 2.5 hours flying time. That's not trivial. London, along with NYC and Tokyo, is one of the world's three main global cities and as such is a huge O&D market. Any destination that BA chooses to serve via MAD will be served nonstop to LHR on a competitor. Unless there is a huge discount to taking the connection (which may be in the opposite direction from the final destination), that will decimate IAG's business plan.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
aquariusHKG
Posts: 32
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 6:25 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
My bad. I thought BA has a high density 744 fleet.

I think you might have confused with VS's LGW fleet
 
vv701
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:08 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 31):
LHR-MAD is about 2.5 hours flying time. That's not trivial.

It is not. But there are second line destinations served by BA from LHR in the southern hemisphere and MAD is just a fraction west of being due south from LHR. Obviously with a change of aircraft a LHR-MAD-CPT or an LHR-MAD-EZE routing would be longer. But passengers originating elsewhere in Europe and currently routing XXX-LHR-EZE and XXX-LHR-CPT- see qf002's comments in Reply 30 - would probably save time by routing by BA through MAD instead of LHR provided connecting times were decen . Where I and qf002 differ is only about whether LHR originating passengers would use such a service along wqith those starting their journeys elsewhere in Europe.

Here I do have to confess that my suggestions regarding MAD are by no means an origional thought. Someone else proposed it two years ago. He was then CEO of BA and today he is CEO of IAG. Now some will say what is reported here:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/w...ur-madrid-over-london-6479628.html

even if in an exaggerated manner, was political posturing to make a point. But I am not unhappy to be in the same camp as Willie Walsh who obviously has a lot more influence on any such decision than I or any of us do. So, just to emphasise my point here is another link to a report on what he said back then:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/business/14...a-expand-madrid-after-heathrow-ban

I guess one thing that helps mitigate tagainst this possibility id BA's purchase of BD. LHR slots will not be so problamatic for BA at least for a couple of years. But if Ba are to order a new long haul fleet thety will need to look forward more than two or three years in assessing what their requirements are.
 
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par13del
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Such a scheme would mean BA loses virtually every advantage they have in their home LHR market. The slots that they vacate will be happily snapped up by the competition who will then proceed to (probably very rapidly) erode their core corporate market.

Why vacate slots, they would be needed to service the shuttle flights to MAD.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 17):
Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights

Commercial suicide as well as politically a nightmare. You work for BA, you must know why that would fail.

Well if I follow the logic, by the time BA looks to implement this the delay's at LHR would have increased significantly since all forcast are for traffic growth and LHR capacity to remain fixed, for all its pomp and pride and expensive slots, eventually pax will look elsewhere rather than sit around waiting on the ground or in the air.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 31):
Any destination that BA chooses to serve via MAD will be served nonstop to LHR on a competitor.

Que the slots argument again, LHR with no increase in concrete will continue to be the crown jewel of folks lining up to pay millions to get slots, do not expect BA to give up any, so those competitors will have to cut something to get additional slots or spend significant sums to get additional, which for transiting via MAD may not make up the difference.
The USA market may be different and I would expect BA to continue the bulk of its LHR-USA routes in this scenario, the other regions may get re-routed. If the Caribbean is included expect US carriers like AA and DL to push the US government to re-visit its intransit visa rules as more folk may prefer to go via the USA versus MAD.

Interesting thoughts based on an airlines fleet replacement plan.
 
qf002
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 1:40 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 33):
But if Ba are to order a new long haul fleet thety will need to look forward more than two or three years in assessing what their requirements are.

Here we definitely agree. The shape of the company for the next 20-30 years will be determined by the fleet decisions that are made over the next few years.

Quoting par13del (Reply 34):
Why vacate slots, they would be needed to service the shuttle flights to MAD.

As I read it, VV701 was suggesting the replacement of most of BA's services out of LHR with an 'hourly' shuttle to MAD, and connections to most of BA's existing destinations there. Moving the bulk of destinations to MAD would mean a big drop in services out of LHR, plus a big drop in the need to feed into LHR from Europe. Therefore, logic says that BA will be flying less flights, and hence be vacating a big pile of slots.

VV701 has since clarified that he would see most LHR flights continuing...
 
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par13del
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 3:12 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 35):
Moving the bulk of destinations to MAD would mean a big drop in services out of LHR, plus a big drop in the need to feed into LHR from Europe. Therefore, logic says that BA will be flying less flights, and hence be vacating a big pile of slots.

Even without VV701 clarifictaions, slots at LHR are valuable, history has shown that flights are run just as place holders for slots using ATR's fore example. BA may even go on a domestic binge where they use slots to fly domestic pax into LHR for connections via MAD, yes its a two stop but BA would offer much more connections than any other competitor.
EasyJet and Ryanair can get you to MAD from various points in the UK but if you desire to go further, you either two step with BA or accept service from two carriers.
So far international airlines have not been beating down the door for service into non-LHR airports, so the strategy may well work, good thing is we get to speculate and discuss.
 
skipness1E
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Tue May 22, 2012 11:10 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 36):
BA may even go on a domestic binge where they use slots to fly domestic pax into LHR for connections via MAD, yes its a two stop but BA would offer much more connections than any other competitor.

Given LH and AF / KLM have more connectivity and on one stop only?
 
qf002
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:14 am

Quoting par13del (Reply 36):
its a two stop but BA would offer much more connections than any other competitor.

Any other competitor is going to leap on this enormous weakness that the company would be creating for themselves. skipness1E's examples of LH and AF/KL are probably the biggest ones, who have a route map that rivals BA and could easily ramp up services across the UK to offer better connections and more seats.

The smarter suggestion that you could have made would have been to say that there would be hourly shuttles from a dozen major UK cities to MAD. That eliminates the two-stop issue. It doesn't, however, eliminate the additional 4-5 hours travelling time created to get to the US and Asia.

I could easily see VS jumping in with a pile of new services from MAN to the US, and would also predict even more growth of the ME carriers across the UK (particularly in the smaller cities that EK services). The Asian carriers would probably grow as well. BA would be virtually inviting them to come in and take the traffic away.
 
bthebest
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Wed May 23, 2012 8:41 am

I think BA are unfortunate to be stuck in the limbo of not knowing what the future of airport infrastructure in the London region will look like. Although nothing significant will be in place for at least 20 years, that will be about the time that the complete 747 renewal should be implemented, and 777 planning well under way.

On a side note: check out the future plans for 'Thames Hub', looks pretty cool - http://www.halcrow.com/thames-hub/images.htm
 
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par13del
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Wed May 23, 2012 1:13 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 38):
Any other competitor is going to leap on this enormous weakness that the company would be creating for themselves.

Agree, but BA would be doing the best it can in our hypothetical scenario, besides, its also one of the reason why airlines push their frequent flyer programs, some pax do ramain loyal to the airline if the price is within a certain range.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 38):
The smarter suggestion that you could have made would have been to say that there would be hourly shuttles from a dozen major UK cities to MAD. That eliminates the two-stop issue. It doesn't, however, eliminate the additional 4-5 hours travelling time created to get to the US and Asia.

I agree, I said domestic binge at LHR in relation to the scenario of not divesting slots at LHR, in reality they may well have to offer direct service from other airports.

Only issue I have with BA offering flights out-side of LHR is that they have consistently tried to not do it, don't know why, they tend to be LHR and LGW centric leaving RyanAir and EasyJet to offer direct service to the continent from non London airports.
 
jumpjets
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Sat May 26, 2012 1:23 pm

On a slightly differnt note I was wondering about the repalcement of the LGW short haul fleet. I guess with a number of additional ex-BMI airbuses in the fleet now some of them might be sent to LGW to replace the older 737s.

What prompted this thought was that I am flying to JER from LGW next week and was fully expecting to be on a 737 but I notice that my outbound flight is scheduled for a A319 - is this the start of the transition from 737s to A319s?
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Sat May 26, 2012 1:33 pm

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 41):
On a slightly differnt note I was wondering about the repalcement of the LGW short haul fleet. I guess with a number of additional ex-BMI airbuses in the fleet now some of them might be sent to LGW to replace the older 737s.

What prompted this thought was that I am flying to JER from LGW next week and was fully expecting to be on a 737 but I notice that my outbound flight is scheduled for a A319 - is this the start of the transition from 737s to A319s?

BA normally transfer a number of A319's to LGW for the summer season. At one point some were LGW based, before the short haul routes were cut back.

I think most if not all of the BD airbuses will disappear as their leases expire, as they are a bit of a mixed bag.
 
vv701
Posts: 5773
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: British Airways 744 Replacement?

Sat May 26, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 41):
I notice that my outbound flight is scheduled for a A319 - is this the start of the transition from 737s to A319s?

For the last several years BA has always transferred two or three 319s from its LHR to its LGW fleet for the summer season. This year G-EUPV and 'VT transferred from LHR to LGW on 24 March. Last year the two aircraft that transferred were G-EUOB and G-EUPS. In 2010 three 319s, G-EUOB, 'OE and G-EUPS, spent the summer at LGW.

So I do not think the scheduling of a 319 on the LGW-JER route is particularly meaningful.

Another factor at this time is 734 G-DOCU. It was quite severely damaged when it was hit by a ground vehicle at GOA on 30 April. After patching up in a temporary tent hangar it was ferried to LHR on 13 May. It is still there undergoing a more permanent repair. In the interim BA have wet leased Titan Airways 733s (G-POWC and G-ZAPW) and a 752 (G-ZAPX) for varying periods over the last four weeks to cover for this temporary loss.

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