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solnabo
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Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:19 pm

Great news!

MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--Jet Airways (India) Ltd. (532617.BY) may order up to 100 Airbus planes as early as this year to partly replace its old aircraft and to strengthen its fleet in a market where some of its rivals are fast shrinking in size, according to a top airline consultant.

In its latest report on India's airlines, Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation said Jet is evaluating the purchase of Airbus A320 neo planes. The order will likely cost more than $3.75 billion at list price, said the


[Edited 2012-05-23 10:20:50]

[Edited 2012-05-23 10:21:39]

[Edited 2012-05-23 10:22:40]
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Cipango
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:21 pm

Im quite surprised at the number of aircraft they plan to order, but I do think the A320NEO will fit their network quite well.
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solnabo
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:25 pm

Couldn´t copy the paper WSJ into this topic....sorry ´bout that.

//Mike   
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solnabo
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:29 pm

How many NEO´s have IndiGo on order?

Cheers

Mike//   
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scbriml
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:37 pm

Here you go:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...airways-capa-idUSBRE84M0AS20120523

Quote:
Jet Airways (JET.NS) is expected to order more than 100 narrow-body aircraft for up to $3.75 billion in 2012/13 as the largest Indian carrier grabs market share from its troubled rivals, a leading consultancy said.

Without getting too excited, there's are a lot of "likely", "may" and "expected" in the report.

Given their large 737NG fleet, it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't at least looking at the MAX as well.
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rotating14
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:48 pm

Im thinking that they would look at the MAX more than they would the A320. Whats the earliest slot available for a NEO?
 
slinky09
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:48 pm

Folk in my company are moving away from Jet over concerns about its longevity, so this, if true, represents quite a shot in the arm. India remains low cost competitive, does Jet have the structure, and the growth potential for this?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 5:51 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 4):
Given their large 737NG fleet, it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't at least looking at the MAX as well.

Wikipedia notes a good part of their 737NG fleet is leased. As such, switching OEMs for their next generation narrowbodies likely would not be too much of a hardship. And should this new fleet also be leased, that could impact which family is chosen based on terms and availability.

[Edited 2012-05-23 10:59:11]
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Wikipedia notes a good part of their 737NG fleet is leased.

Boeing shows Jet as having purchased 67 737s directly, but I guess they could have sold and leased back any number of those.
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Stitch
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 6:25 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 8):
Boeing shows Jet as having purchased 67 737s directly, but I guess they could have sold and leased back any number of those.

I cross-checked with Airfleets and it shows 17 of 60 leased, whereas Wiki shows 42 of 58 leased.

Wiki also shows most of their A330-200s leased, yet Airfleets doesn't show any as being leased and according to a 9W press release from 28 May 2008 on the delivery of their 7th states they are all direct-buys from Airbus.

So Wiki is wrong again, I guess.  
 
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EPA001
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
So Wiki is wrong again, I guess.  

The best information can be found here on A-net!  .

Quoting scbriml (Reply 4):
Here you go:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...20523

A lot of uncertainties still in the article. It could easily also go Boeing's way. Though I do favor the NEO a bit more myself.  .
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 6:48 pm

Wow, that'd be a big order. Certainly a hit to the MAX if true. The big orders just keep rolling in for the OEM's.

-Dave
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astuteman
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 7:02 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 11):
Wow, that'd be a big order. Certainly a hit to the MAX if true. The big orders just keep rolling in for the OEM's.

Hey, and if and when it happens, we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...         

rgds
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 7:13 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Hey, and if and when it happens, we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...

rgds

Let's hope they keep the discount to themselves.  

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scbriml
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 7:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
Wiki also shows most of their A330-200s leased, yet Airfleets doesn't show any as being leased and according to a 9W press release from 28 May 2008 on the delivery of their 7th states they are all direct-buys from Airbus.

More confusion about Jet! Airbus shows 15 A330s ordered directly, of which ten have been delivered (through April). But the same sheet also shows them as operating 12, so it seems they have at least two leased birds.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...

Well I'm fully expecting Airbus to trump Boeing's 65% discount!     
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 7:45 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Well I'm fully expecting Airbus to trump Boeing's 65% discount!

It was 64%!!!!  

-Dave
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 8:31 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Hey, and if and when it happens, we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...        

Too late!

Quote:

"In my estimate, at the current price and without taking into account the list price, the actual price for the order could be $3.5 billion to $3.75 billion," Kapil Kaul, regional head of CAPA, told Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...airways-capa-idUSBRE84M0AS20120523

They have already factored in the discount... So that would be about a 62-64% off list  
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 10:04 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 16):
They have already factored in the discount... So that would be about a 62-64% off list  

But, of course, in this case the large discount would be fully justified in order to steal a current 737 costumer from Boeing. Whereas in the case of Boeing and WN...   
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 23, 2012 11:51 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Hey, and if and when it happens, we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...

Well, looks like you got the ball rolling.......  

-Dave
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JOYA380B747
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 3:53 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 4):
Given their large 737NG fleet, it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't at least looking at the MAX as well.

I'm not surprised their expansion comes in wake of AI and KF being in the doldrums.... But switching to A320s for their next lot of narrow-bodies wasn't what I expected; I thought they'd stick to Boeing, maybe ordering the 737Max.
Maybe as the A320Neos arrive, they would slowly phase out their 737 fleet.


Regarding the lease of more A330s, looks like they are betting big with expanding their A330 fleet for overseas ops. Personally I think it is the best widebody for India's international aviation market.

But isn't this mix of both Boeing and Airbus widebodies and narrowbodies a little too much for 9W?

Any chance they'll order A321s or will they just be 320 Neos?
If it wasn't for AI and those money mongers sitting in the parliament, 9W would have been as big as SQ...:(
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 4:12 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
Well, looks like you got the ball rolling.......

Yeah. On reflection wasn't the best idea I've ever had.....

Rgds
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 4:59 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 22):
Yeah. On reflection wasn't the best idea I've ever had.....

Ha ha.....surprised I wasn't the one causing problems. I seem to step in it often enough around here.

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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 5:55 am

Almost all of the major domestic routes in India are less than 1,000nm, with a range of 450 to 950 nm. The average sector length is probably closer to 600 nm, a range at which I expect A320NEO and B737-8 Max to have similar fuel burn per seat.

The A320NEO is expected to have 6% less capacity than B737-8, and this might be one factor for Jet to take into account due to increasing congestion at Indian airports.
 
astuteman
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 6:22 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 22):
The A320NEO is expected to have 6% less capacity than B737-8, and this might be one factor for Jet to take into account due to increasing congestion at Indian airports.

Sounds like perfect territory for an A321NEO then, perhaps?  

Rgds
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 6:40 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 23):
Sounds like perfect territory for an A321NEO then, perhaps?

For some reason Jet has only 2 739s and none on order. It has 45 B738s with 27 more on order.

I am surprised that none of the Indian carriers have tried to use B739 or A321 extensively to undercut the competition. It has been suggested that Indigo is considering switching some of the A320NEO order to A321NEO.
 
15a
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 7:37 am

If these come, they could be headed for the New JetKonnect brand (which currently uses aircraft under both 9W and S2 Operating permits) - these could well be the rejuvenation plan for S2 which currently flies a mix of some fairly old 737s and some newer birds (including 2 739ERs of Lion Air origin)
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 7:52 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 23):
Sounds like perfect territory for an A321NEO then, perhaps?  

Wouldn't a Boeing 739 also fit this purpose? That is if 9W doesn't want to wait for the 737 MAX 9s. I would think that they would want to stick with Boeing for their short haul routes if possible, to have more short haul fleet commonality, but of course, I recognize that the manufacturer with the best deal is likely to win the order.
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 8:00 am

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 26):
Wouldn't a Boeing 739 also fit this purpose?

Perhaps, but they appear to be heading towards the NEO.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 26):
That is if 9W doesn't want to wait for the 737 MAX 9s

I'm not sure that the wait is much different overall.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 26):
I would think that they would want to stick with Boeing for their short haul routes if possible, to have more short haul fleet commonality

There are a number of reasons that might be true and a number of reasons that it might not be.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 26):
but of course, I recognize that the manufacturer with the best deal is likely to win the order.

I'd suggest it's "...that the manufacturer with the best value propostion is likely to win the order", as price per airframe is but one part of the deal. But please, let's just leave it at that.  

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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 10:59 am

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 19):
But isn't this mix of both Boeing and Airbus widebodies and narrowbodies a little too much for 9W?

Why would it be "too much"? There are so many airlines around the world with such a mix.....what's different for 9W?
 
JOYA380B747
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 11:09 am

Quoting gr8circle (Reply 28):
Why would it be "too much"? There are so many airlines around the world with such a mix.....what's different for 9W?

No I meant with high operating/maintenance costs and every problem the country is facing, it would be easier to maintain sole 737 or A320 fleets I guessed.
If it wasn't for AI and those money mongers sitting in the parliament, 9W would have been as big as SQ...:(
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 11:57 am

Quoting 15a (Reply 25):
New JetKonnect brand

Off topic, but that must certainly be in copyright violation of Qantas' New Zealand operation which is named JetConnect.
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 24, 2012 5:00 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 4):
Given their large 737NG fleet, it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't at least looking at the MAX as well.

Why NOT a 737 MAX order ? A320 neo is not the BMW M5 of the skies.
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 10:24 am

9w was considering A320s a year back.

Wonder if Increasing the stores Inventory with Two similiar ranged aircraft makes sense.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 10:29 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 31):
Why NOT a 737 MAX order ? A320 neo is not the BMW M5 of the skies.

Why NOT a A320NEO? Apparently it seems to be superior aircraft for 9W, when compared to 737 MAX.

BMWs suck, BTW. Audi owns them all. And A320NEO is Audi of the skies.

[Edited 2012-05-25 03:36:20]
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 12:44 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 33):
Apparently it seems to be superior aircraft for 9W

By which metric?
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 1:46 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 34):
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 33):
Apparently it seems to be superior aircraft for 9W

By which metric?

Total cost of ownership? CASM? Fuel burn? Price? Some other arrangement? I don't know.

Jet Airways is buying them, not me. They're the ones that should be asked this question.
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 35):

Jet Airways is buying them, not me. They're the ones that should be asked this question.

I would ask 9W if they had suggested that the A320neo is superior for them. However, they did not suggest this - you suggested this, so I'm asking you.
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 5:28 pm

If it wasn't superior, 9W would buy MAX. Instead, they want to buy NEO. So for 9W, NEO is superior to MAX. Just as MAX was superior to NEO for UA. Simple as that.

Now WHY was it superior? That's something you have to find out from 9W.

[Edited 2012-05-25 10:29:08]
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aeroblogger
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Fri May 25, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 37):
If it wasn't superior, 9W would buy MAX. Instead, they want to buy NEO. So for 9W, NEO is superior to MAX. Just as MAX was superior to NEO for UA. Simple as that.

When did they say that they want to buy the NEO? That's news to me.
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Gr8Circle
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Sat May 26, 2012 7:41 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 37):
If it wasn't superior, 9W would buy MAX. Instead, they want to buy NEO. So for 9W, NEO is superior to MAX. Just as MAX was superior to NEO for UA. Simple as that.

That logic doesn't sound right.....quite often, a decision is made based on other criteria when the two choices available are so closely comparable.....
 
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Sat May 26, 2012 9:20 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 4):
Given their large 737NG fleet, it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't at least looking at the MAX as well.

  

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Hey, and if and when it happens, we get to have another great debate about the merits or otherwise of the discount offered...

  

Quoting mffoda (Reply 16):
They have already factored in the discount... So that would be about a 62-64% off list

Oh, they had better go for 64%+!

Because we all know that is the only way planes sell.  

Being serious, I would be surprised if 9W didn't look into Airbus. How serious? I do not know. But the reality is the NEO is looking to have a greater efficiency gain than the MAX. That doesn't mean the MAX won't sell. It is which length? (738 or 739 vs. A320/A321).

Quoting gr8circle (Reply 39):
That logic doesn't sound right.....quite often, a decision is made based on other criteria when the two choices available are so closely comparable.....

   Including delivery slots. Which neither seem to have in the near term. Note: I'm 'shooting from the hip.' I haven't calculated NEO or MAX positions, it is based on my opinions of the backlog.


Lightsaber
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rheinwaldner
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 9:12 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 15):
Including delivery slots. Which neither seem to have in the near term.

According to this new article, Jet Airways would get early NEO slots:

http://www.travelbizmonitor.com/jet-...along-with-initial-customers-16550

From this we can derive:

- That the production capacity is not a limiting factor for the ongoing Airbus' sales efforts.

- This is consistent with their predicted market share lead in that segment.

- They just seem to be in a "selling first"-mode and adjust the production capacity to the required rate afterwards.


I also wonder whether Jet Airways is under some pressure, because their direct competitors will be the first receivers of large batches of NEO's.

From Jet Airways's viewpoint the situation could look like that:

- There could be the competition factor. Once Indigo and Goair can reduce their seat-mile cost significantly, they could be left out in the rain without decent and comparable metal.

- There could be the safe-bet-factor. As the MAX is less defined and the promised gains are less, the NEO could be seen as the less risky option, facing the armada of their NEO-equipped competitors.

- There could be the time-factor. The MAX may simply be too late.
 
columba
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 10:11 am

Jetairways might no want become dependant on one manufacturer they have the 77W and I believe 787 on order. The A330 will likely go as soon as the 787 will be delivered.
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 11:18 am

Quoting columba (Reply 17):
The A330 will likely go as soon as the 787 will be delivered.

Given they still have five A330s to be delivered, I think they'll be in the fleet for a good while yet.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
something
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 11:38 am

Could the notorious pilot shortage be a factor in this? As most operators ''in the region'' (India, South East Asia and the Gulf) are A320 operators, it might be easier for them to source Airbus type-rated pilots. It should also be easier to cross-train pilots for A320/A330.

Discounts and availability are obviously of greater importance, and it's reasonable to assume that Airbus is going for marketshare (and following ancillary revenues) over high profit margins on the sale. But where would they get those early slots from?

By the by, Airbus' seemingly aggressive strategy to conquer whole markets speaks volumes about the 737MAX's performance. The NEO's advantage must be negligibly slim.
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aeroblogger
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 11:48 am

Quoting something (Reply 44):
Could the notorious pilot shortage be a factor in this? As most operators ''in the region'' (India, South East Asia and the Gulf) are A320 operators, it might be easier for them to source Airbus type-rated pilots. It should also be easier to cross-train pilots for A320/A330.

There is a surplus of both A320 and 737 pilots in India right now. The availability of pilots is not likely to be a concern.
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 1:18 pm

Quoting something (Reply 19):
Discounts and availability are obviously of greater importance, and it's reasonable to assume that Airbus is going for marketshare (and following ancillary revenues) over high profit margins on the sale. But where would they get those early slots from?
By the by, Airbus' seemingly aggressive strategy to conquer whole markets speaks volumes about the 737MAX's performance. The NEO's advantage must be negligibly slim.

By now there have been numerous reports stating that Boeing underbid Airbus in the DL RFP by about 10%, and also won UA chiefly on price (sample source). What does that say about the 737MAX's performance? Also, I am still to understand Boeing's rhetoric about Airbus going for market share. I mean I understand what they try to imply (that Airbus go for market share over profit, a long-standing claim from Boeing against Airbus), but I just don't think it holds much water given Boeing's own aggressive sales strategy. (Note that I am talking about narrow body airplanes here.)

To me it seems that both players are quite aggressive with regard to market share - and with regard to performance, of course both manufacturers will claim their product is better. They have for a while, and the market was still split very evenly and I believe it will continue to be.
On the same subject - NEO vs MAX (and CEO vs NG) performance - Leehamnews have this piece compiling the latest message from both OEMs. Their summary:

Quoting Leehamnews:
The bouncing around is enough to make one airsick. This is why we remain skeptical of data from both OEMs and prefer to listen to the airlines, who tell use the two airplanes are very close.
42
 
something
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 2:17 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 21):
By now there have been numerous reports stating that Boeing underbid Airbus in the DL RFP by about 10%, and also won UA chiefly on price (sample source). What does that say about the 737MAX's performance?

If an airplane is vastly superior to another, like the 77W to the A346, then that's selling point enough.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 21):
To me it seems that both players are quite aggressive with regard to market share

But this is unprecendented. 200 to Air Asia, 180 to Indigo, American 130, now 100 to Jet Airways. If the NEO was that superior, then Boeing wouldn't be able to match these numbers (200x Lion, 100x Norwegian etc.).
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scbriml
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Wed May 30, 2012 2:23 pm

Quoting something (Reply 22):
If the NEO was that superior, then Boeing wouldn't be able to match these numbers (200x Lion, 100x Norwegian etc.).

They would. Even if the neo was significantly better than MAX, Airbus couldn't meet demand if everyone wanted neo instead of MAX. The (allegedly inferior) MAX would still be attractive based on price (Boeing could reduce it) and earlier availability.

In that scenario, I would still see Beoing being able to maintain a 40-45% market share. Not bad for a dog.   
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RE: Jet Airways May Order 100 A320NEO´s

Thu May 31, 2012 1:04 am

Quoting something (Reply 22):
If an airplane is vastly superior to another, like the 77W to the A346, then that's selling point enough.

But the 737 has a weight advantage. In effect it is being optimized for a shorter mission.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 23):
I would still see Beoing being able to maintain a 40-45% market share. Not bad for a dog.

If the MAX were a dog, with the C-series and increased production would drop its share further.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 16):
According to this new article, Jet Airways would get early NEO slots:

Wow. I need to eat a little crow... Airbus surprised me.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 16):
From this we can derive:

- That the production capacity is not a limiting factor for the ongoing Airbus' sales efforts.

I'm getting the idea that Airbus is ready to ramp up production further.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 16):
- They just seem to be in a "selling first"-mode and adjust the production capacity to the required rate afterwards.

While you are accurate, the reality is Airbus has time to further ramp up production. I just didn't think they would... (Oops...)

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 16):
- There could be the competition factor. Once Indigo and Goair can reduce their seat-mile cost significantly, they could be left out in the rain without decent and comparable metal.

Now that I 100% agree with. 9W must keep costs in line with their local competition. Due to the earlier EIS of the A320NEO, if they were promised early slots, they might have no choice. The margins are too low in the Indian market to go a few years of further growth on the old engines. Part of my opinion is based on the need in the Indian market for growth for PR. An airline that 'holds still' for a few years is going to be so far down in market share that they would have lost out on signing business contracts.

Which begs the question, what will AI and IT do? Most of the Indian airlines order on relatively short leases, so the fleet turnover will be rapid and thus the competitive landscape will change quickly.

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