rheinwaldner
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Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 11:35 am

From Airbus we receive confident messages in several areas. Leahy and the program managers set the bar quite high with their newest predictions. IMO there is a considerable risk, that they will fail to achieve these goals. Kudos to Airbus if they indeed would deliver that.

Here are the claims:
- 30 A380 sales in 2012
- 30 A350 sales in 2012
- A380 sale to CX hinted
- 60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Source (only in German):
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/wi...agsschub-fuer-a380_aid_758025.html
 
Jack
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:04 pm

30 net A350 sales would be good as they are currently net -7 at the end of April.

30 A380 sales, especially to new customers like CX would be ground breaking.....
 
Cerecl
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:08 pm

I admit I read a Google Translate version of the article, but I could not see the reference to 30 A350 sales in 2012. It would be quite disappointing if true though. The firming of AF's order alone would contribute 25.
 
DrStrange
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:15 pm

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 2):

The reference to the A350s is just that: a reference.
The article says that Leahy thinks that the same number of sales for the A350 as for the A380 are realistic for this year (2012).
 Smile

[Edited 2012-05-25 05:15:56]
 
Cerecl
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:20 pm

Quoting DrStrange (Reply 3):
The article says that Leahy thinks that the same number of sales for the A350 as for the A380 are realistic for this year (2012).

Thank you! The translation of that sentence by Google was somewhat convoluted.
 
AustrianZRH
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:20 pm

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 2):
I admit I read a Google Translate version of the article, but I could not see the reference to 30 A350 sales in 2012.

It's a hint in the first paragraph:

Quoting focus.de:

„Es wird nicht einfach, aber wir wollen in diesem Jahr Bestellungen für 30 A380 einsammeln“, sagte Airbus-Verkaufschef John Leahy am Donnerstag in Toulouse – gut sechs Wochen vor der großen Luftfahrtmesse im britischen Farnborough. Auch beim neuen Langstreckenjet A350 hält Leahy diese Größenordnung für realistisch.

translates to

Quoting focus.de translation:

"It's not going to be easy, but we want to collect orders for 30 A380 this year," Airbus chief of sales John Leahy said in Toulouse this Thursday - approximately six weeks before the big air show in Farnborough. For the new long haul jet A350, a number in the same ballbark is considered to be realistic by Leahy.
WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:23 pm

Quoting Jack (Reply 1):
30 A380 sales, especially to new customers like CX would be ground breaking.....

He doesn't normally make predictions like this unless he's pretty confident of some sales - Farnborough should be interesting 
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:39 pm

Airbus must be quite confident of 30 A380 sales to state that number so far into the year, I suspect BA could well be a taker for some of those 30.

Let's see how the year pans out......
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:44 pm

I smell A380 upgrade at Farnborough Air Show...

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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:51 pm

Quoting Jack (Reply 1):
30 net A350 sales would be good as they are currently net -7 at the end of April.

He is not talking about net.
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PM
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 12:54 pm

Thirty x A380 was the number they offered at the January news conference. Nothing new there but good to see that they still think they'll make it.

It would also mean that the backlog doesn't decrease.

And 30 A350s? Can't see why not. As was noted, the AFKL order should take care of most of that.

What I wonder about is more A330 sales. There aren't many airlines left to order them.  

All of the above, of course, may be knocked off course by the row over carbon trading...  
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:05 pm

Leahy's job requires optimism-I find no fault in that. He has made predictions before that have come to pass-and others that have not. From what I have read by CX insiders I would be very surprised if they order the A380, and even more if they order this year. I gathered they were holding out for the A389; if they order the A388 then that says to me that Airbus has told CX that the A389 is not going to happen, at least not soon. As to the 60% prediction, I doubt it. That would require winning over some major 737 operators, and I have not seen any sign of that happening. In fact, if anything the trend seems to be more the other way. While Airbus did breach AA, they did not win the whole order, and meanwhile, both DL and UA, which had substantial A320 fleets have ordered only the 737 so far, and it looks like UA is going exclusively 737. Boeing is obviously doing everything they can to maintain the performance parity that exists between the 737 and the A320; and they probably are working on the NSA in the background in case the MAX falls short. So far all of the big NEO orders I have seen have been from A320 fleets. If Airbus does get 60% of the sales then it will only mean that far more A320 operators are trading in than 737 operators, and again, I do not see this as likely.
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:09 pm

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...n-days-synopsis-of-a-lot-of-stuff/ has a run-down of this event. The stuff most germane to this discussion is:

Quote:

A320 v 737: If the war of words over the A350 wasn’t enough, Leahy—and to a lesser extent, Williams, whose focus was principally the A380—repeated the Airbus messaging begun last November at the Credit Suisse conference in New York that fan size does matter and the 737 MAX comes up short. Airbus figures the MAX at best (pre-dating the recent Boeing changes) will gain 8% over the 737NG. We asked Leahy later about the move by Boeing to take the CFM LEAP-1B fan size to 69.4 inches and to add the “Boeing Advanced Technology Winglets” (BATW) to the MAX. Boeing now claims the MAX will be a 13% improvement over the NG. Leahy, who compared the BATW with the MD-11 winglets, said Boeing will get only about one-half percent improvement from this. The 69.4 inch fan still falls short, he said.

Williams, a former engine engineer, said the hotter temperatures and ceramics technology required of the LEAP-1B, will present maintenance challenges.

Wait on that weight: Boeing for years emphasizes that the 737 is a lighter airplane than the A320. Are the tables about to turn? Airbus thinks the redesigned MAX will be 700kg heavier than the A320neo. We shall see.

Isn't marketing grand?

Boeing now claims the MAX will be a 13% improvement over the NG.

Airbus figures the MAX at best (pre-dating the recent Boeing changes) will gain 8% over the 737NG.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Thread starter):
60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Doubtful, IMHO.

In http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...e-a320neo-will-win-60.html?ana=twt we read:

Quote:

Airbus supremacy isn’t an idea that will sit easy in Boeing country, where Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, at the May 15 Boeing Investors Conference, said about single-aisle competition: “We’re not going to let Airbus position themselves to have a disproportionate market share.”

“We do not want them to get to 60 and us 40,” Albaugh continued. “They then come down the learning curve faster, they get pricing power in the market, it’s a slippery slope for us to be on.”

Albaugh tends to be under-spoken, especially when compared to Leahy et al. There are lots of reasons why it'd be very hard for Airbus to get to "long term" 60% market share, and lots of things Boeing can do to react should the trend be clearly going that way, and IMHO Albaugh's statement says they are not going to let it happen.

Some other articles to feed our discussion (all here are in English):

http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.as...d6ef5b-81c4-4062-a24f-f266bf9b8f38

http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2012/05/strength_in_numbers.html
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AAplat4life
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:10 pm

I have a hard time seeing that many more A380 sales until the wing crack fix is more certain. Published news reports hinted at a delay here, and the media will be all over this issue.
 
wolbo
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:31 pm

Quoting AAplat4life (Reply 13):

I have a hard time seeing that many more A380 sales until the wing crack fix is more certain. Published news reports hinted at a delay here, and the media will be all over this issue.

Completely disagree. In terms of new A380 orders the wing crack problem is a non-issue. The fixed wings, with the new rib design, will be delivered from 2014 onwards and no airline that places a new A380 order will get those planes delivered before that.
 
PanAm1971
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:35 pm

I wonder if the slide in the Euro will help with sales outside the Eurozone? I'm sure it's not that simple. On the other hand, I'm sure it doesn't hurt. Perhaps big orders to China?
 
nipoel123
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 1:55 pm

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 15):
Perhaps big orders to China?

Not going to happen as long as the Emission Trading Scheme is there, China is a giant opponent to this.
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kc135topboom
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 2:16 pm

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 15):
I wonder if the slide in the Euro will help with sales outside the Eurozone? I'm sure it's not that simple. On the other hand, I'm sure it doesn't hurt. Perhaps big orders to China?

I'm not sure about China. For them to place a big Airbus order now would mean they would 'loose face' on the ETS issue. That's not going to happen.

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 14):
In terms of new A380 orders the wing crack problem is a non-issue. The fixed wings, with the new rib design, will be delivered from 2014 onwards and no airline that places a new A380 order will get those planes delivered before that.

Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year. The rib feet crack issue is far from a 'non-issue' if airlines are refusing deliveries.

We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

That means the earliest SQ could get any A-380s delivered will be about 2017. They (SQ) could get B-747-8Is by about 2015.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 3:00 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year. The rib feet crack issue is far from a 'non-issue' if airlines are refusing deliveries.

What part of "new A380 orders" do you not understand?

QR was scheduled to receive it's first A380 in October 2013 and iirrc this was the only one they were scheduled to receive next year so I'm not sure on what you base your wisdom that "QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year." Do you have a source for this statement?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

Airbus has stated that the wing-rib crack issue has caused a slowing down of production but that it expects to meet its delivery target of 30. Perhaps you missed this: www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-airbus-a-idUSBRE83P0A520120426


Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
That means the earliest SQ could get any A-380s delivered will be about 2017. They (SQ) could get B-747-8Is by about 2015.

And how is that relevant? As far as I'm aware SQ is not in the market for the B-747-8I so it doesn't matter if they could get them by 2015 (or by tomorrow).
 
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N14AZ
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 3:20 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
Thirty x A380 was the number they offered at the January news conference. Nothing new there but good to see that they still think they'll make it.

That's exactly what I thought when reading this thread and then the article in detail. He just repeated what he said in January.

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 5):
Quoting focus.de translation:
"It's not going to be easy, but we want to collect orders for 30 A380 this year," Airbus chief of sales John Leahy said in Toulouse this Thursday - approximately six weeks before the big air show in Farnborough

I don't see any reference to Farnborough. One could even think that this is rather bad news since he now added "it's not going to be easy". Maybe this is actually a sign that they will not be able to collect 30 orders.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 3:33 pm

Can someone explain to me why the AF order for 25 A350's is being touted as "new" when the order has been placed already and the only holdup is the maintenance agreement with the engine makers?

As far as the A380 goes, it's a toss up. Carriers would have to not be in a hurry to fill the capacity in order to order more at this point. Taking into account the current backlog and the fact that the production has been slowed down to facilitate the repairs means an order this year might mean delivery in 2015. And if what I'm saying pans out it could be the same dilemma that the B777 is going through, just on a different level. The market wants the T773-er but Boeing can't spit them out fast enough thus stalling potential orders.

60%? Its good to aim high but better to under promise and over deliver. As another poster stated Boeing is on it's job with making the MAX everything it can possibly be. The next two years should tell us where that figure really stands for the two OEM's.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 3:43 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 19):
I don't see any reference to Farnborough. One could even think that this is rather bad news since he now added "it's not going to be easy". Maybe this is actually a sign that they will not be able to collect 30 orders.

Farnborough could be "Boeing's Show" if they convert hundreds of 737 MAX commitments to orders, so while Airbus and their customers like using the major Air Show of the year to announce their orders, they may want to wait for another show to not be overshadowed in the non-aviation press.

That being said, if Airbus has landed CX as an A380 customer then Farnborough would be where you'd want to announce it since Asian Aerospace won't be holding an event until at least 2014.

The Dubai Airshow could be an option if EK, QR and/or EY are increasing their orders for either the A380 or the A350.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 4:06 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Quoting rheinwaldner (Thread starter):
60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Doubtful, IMHO.

In http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...e-a320neo-will-win-60.html?ana=twt we read:

Quote:

Airbus supremacy isn’t an idea that will sit easy in Boeing country, where Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, at the May 15 Boeing Investors Conference, said about single-aisle competition: “We’re not going to let Airbus position themselves to have a disproportionate market share.”

“We do not want them to get to 60 and us 40,” Albaugh continued. “They then come down the learning curve faster, they get pricing power in the market, it’s a slippery slope for us to be on.”

Albaugh tends to be under-spoken, especially when compared to Leahy et al. There are lots of reasons why it'd be very hard for Airbus to get to "long term" 60% market share, and lots of things Boeing can do to react should the trend be clearly going that way, and IMHO Albaugh's statement says they are not going to let it happen.

Gee, I wonder why Leahy didn't make any predictions of market share in the WB market.
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 4:19 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

I suspect that the slowdown in deliveries has a lot to do with the wing problem, which I would think would make it likely that they will be able to accelerate deliveries once they have worked out how to handle it. I would expect them to deliver more than 18, although perhaps not as many as last year's 26.
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liftsifter
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 4:29 pm

When did this become a wing crack topic? The issue is well known and has it's own topic, so let's keep this to order talk.

I see EK possibly topping up on some A380s. They seem to love them even with wing crack problems. So much so that their combining the A380 fleet with 777 training now. Seems a bit interesting, no?
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting solnabo (Reply 8):
I smell A380 upgrade at Farnborough Air Show...

That'd be awesome. To me, it's the natural A380 evolution.

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col
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 4:50 pm

There are a number of existing 380 customers who need to top up their order book. KE, SQ, LH, EK, TG, MH, BA. 30 should be easy by now, even with the wings creaking and cracking, but still cannot hear it in the cabin. It is still the best long haul plane out there with the 340's.

30 A350 should also be a walk in the park, but as PM says the biggest issue for A is the 330 orders this year. Need a few more.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 5:20 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 24):

Are they (EK) still seeking compensation for the lost rev for the wing issues??
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting solnabo (Reply 8):
I smell A380 upgrade at Farnborough Air Show...
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 25):
That'd be awesome. To me, it's the natural A380 evolution.

Outside of a possible MTOW increase, I don't see it.

Airbus needs to deliver another ~100 A380-800s before they start pedaling the A380-900. Otherwise, they risk order conversions and the that could reduce the overall order book (selling two A380-900s to a customer instead of three A380-800s).

And since there is no competition at the A380-800 size, there is no pressing need to go larger.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):


And since there is no competition at the A380-800 size, there is no pressing need to go larger.

Exactly, and Airbus has more pressing problems, such as the A350 and NEO programs. I still do not believe that any airline would buy the A389 but not the A388 if the A389 is not built; including CX, in spite of their protestations. Until there is a competitor, or another plane approaches its CASM, I would regard the A389 as a much less than optimum use of resources. If the A380 program was bringing in boatloads of profits it would be worth considering, but I do not think that is the case right now.
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 6:40 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
He has made predictions before that have come to pass-and others that have not.



His predictions for Airbus sales tend, not surprisingly, to be pretty much spot-on. If anything, he leans to the conservative side.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 20):
Can someone explain to me why the AF order for 25 A350's is being touted as "new" when the order has been placed already and the only holdup is the maintenance agreement with the engine makers?



The order is not firm and hasn't been counted by Airbus. So, when AF does sign on the dotted line, it will be a new order.
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ikramerica
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 6:41 pm

What's his track record over the last three years prediction/actual re the A380?
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 7:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
selling two A380-900s to a customer instead of three A380-800s

That may not be how things work-- to fly a given frequency from point A to point B, you need 2 or 3 aircraft in rotation. If you buy fewer bigger aircraft you can't maintain the same frequency.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 7:11 pm

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 18):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year. The rib feet crack issue is far from a 'non-issue' if airlines are refusing deliveries.
What part of "new A380 orders" do you not understand?

QR was scheduled to receive it's first A380 in October 2013 and iirrc this was the only one they were scheduled to receive next year so I'm not sure on what you base your wisdom that "QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year." Do you have a source for this statement?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012...-deliveries-on-wing-crack-worries/

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 18):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.
Airbus has stated that the wing-rib crack issue has caused a slowing down of production but that it expects to meet its delivery target of 30. Perhaps you missed this: www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/u...20426

No, I saw it. I don't believe it. Airbus is attempting to deliver more Whale Jets this year than it has ever delivered in one year while at the same time dealing with a new design and material for the rib feet on all 74 airplanes now in service.

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 18):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):That means the earliest SQ could get any A-380s delivered will be about 2017. They (SQ) could get B-747-8Is by about 2015.
And how is that relevant? As far as I'm aware SQ is not in the market for the B-747-8I so it doesn't matter if they could get them by 2015 (or by tomorrow).

I have not seen anything that says SQ is ordering more A-380s.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 24):
When did this become a wing crack topic? The issue is well known and has it's own topic, so let's keep this to order talk.

You did it yourself, in the same post.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 24):
They seem to love them even with wing crack problems.
Quoting col (Reply 26):
There are a number of existing 380 customers who need to top up their order book. KE, SQ, LH, EK, TG, MH, BA.

Why?

Quoting col (Reply 26):
30 should be easy by now, even with the wings creaking and cracking, but still cannot hear it in the cabin. It is still the best long haul plane out there with the 340's.

If you think the A-340 was a good long haul airplane, then you really need to get out more often. The A-340 is out of production because the B-777 is a better airplane for the long haul.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 30):
His predictions for Airbus sales tend, not surprisingly, to be pretty much spot-on. If anything, he leans to the conservative side.

              

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 31):
What's his track record over the last three years prediction/actual re the A380?

Less than 50/50, unless he already had the order in his pocket but waited to announce it at an air show somewhere.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 7:19 pm

I appreciate the objective thread start and subsequent articles in English (since this is not a German forum).

It looks like there are many good opportunities at Airbus. I think the 60% market share in narrowbodies is the most likely to be challenged. It appears Airbus is convinced that the MAX will be an 8% improvement over the NG yet Boeing says it will be 13%. Based on the fact that the manufacturers disagree on each other’s improvements, it is really hard to trust their comparisons. Airbus also assumes the 737MAX will get heavier than the comparable A320NEO.

I am glad to see that the A330 NEO is off the table (per leeham article). That airplane never made any sense to me. Slight payload increases on A332s and A333s made sense as A330s are still viable with the long wait on 787s.

I find it interesting that Airbus seems to be pushing customers form the A358 to the A359 based on price. It sounds like the A359 has a higher profit margin. Being that it between the 787 and 777X, it makes sense it would have a higher profit margin opportunity since it does not have as close of a competitor.

I’m not surprised he said Boeing won United on price. In terms of ongoing discussions with other airlines, that’s a safe way to distance themselves from a comparison of the actual airplanes themselves since Leahy thinks the A320NEO will be much more efficient.

I'm a bit curious of the downplaying of the MS-21 or C919. China is a huge customer and Airbus even opened a line there, yet they seem to not think the C919 will influence the market.

[Edited 2012-05-25 12:24:38]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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N14AZ
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 7:45 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):
Less than 50/50

Surely you have a proof, correct? Otherwise one wouldn't be able to give such exact numbers.

Let's have a look what he predicted for 2011:
- at the beginning of 2011 JLA said Airbus will sale something between 20 and 30 A 380s
- in 2011 Airbus had 29 new firm oders for A 380s *)
- in 2011 Airbus had 10 cancellations (ILFC)
- so net 19 new orders

*) OZ: 6, Skymark: 4 + 2 later on, LH: 2, QR: 5, Hong Kong: 10
 
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Polot
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 8:16 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 34):
I find it interesting that Airbus seems to be pushing customers form the A358 to the A359 based on price. It sounds like the A359 has a higher profit margin. Being that it between the 787 and 777X, it makes sense it would have a higher profit margin opportunity since it does not have as close of a competitor.

It also means that they can delay the A358, freeing up engineers for other projects while offering customers who don't want to move up in size slightly improved A330s instead, which I am sure would also be more profitable for Airbus. But I am also in the camp that believes that the A358, at least how it stands now, will never see the light of day so that is probably just my bias coming through.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 8:16 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 30):
His predictions for Airbus sales tend, not surprisingly, to be pretty much spot-on. If anything, he leans to the conservative side.

As I recall, he has predicted a lot of A380 sales that have not come to pass. He does know more than anyone else about what is in the works, but sometimes things that one thinks are a sure thing blow up. I am not disparaging him; I have frequently lauded him as one of the best salesmen of all time, and my opinion has not changed. In spite of my Boeing preference, I acknowledge that he has done an incredible job for Airbus.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
CM
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Fri May 25, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 6):
He doesn't normally make predictions like this unless he's pretty confident of the sales
Quoting scbriml (Reply 30):
His predictions for Airbus sales tend, not surprisingly, to be pretty much spot-on. If anything, he leans to the conservative side.

My, how quickly we forget the truly crazy predictions he makes sometimes. Like this one from last September:

Quote:
"I predict by this time next year we will have an overwhelming [A350-1000] order response"
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL5E7KL65N20110921?irpc=932

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 31):
What's his track record over the last three years prediction/actual re the A380?

Exactly right.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
Leahy's job requires optimism

Exactly right

Leahy's predictions are made for effect. They are about stirring the market. They don't have anything to do with what's really going to happen. Leahy doesn't really have any vested interest in keeping the press and the general public informed about upcoming orders. His job is to get the market to react positively to Airbus products. You can bet the internal goals at the time of his statement were 30 x A380 and 30 x A350. Those goals have absolutely no bearing on what's going to happen.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 12:23 am

Quoting CM (Reply 40):
My, how quickly we forget the truly crazy predictions he makes sometimes. Like this one from last September:

I was wondering when someone was going to bring that one up.  

I personally think, everyone should cut JL and RT some slack... they are SALESMAN and nothing more. If you really look for for holes in JL's predictions they are easy to find! But, before you criticize him, you should know that he is a businessmen first (and an American) and a very good one at that! I can't think of a better salesman for AB then JL. Its sort of like having JL as the goal keeper for FC ManU or Bayern Munchen against team USA.  

This 60% NB prediction seems more like damage control then anything else?? Other Analyst have predicted that Boeing will have 54-56% of the entire market by 2018. So, claiming an NB victory seems very logical... I guess we will just have to wait for the results.
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
Cerecl
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 1:29 am

It is sad to see the direction of this thread has taken. I was hoping some insiders would shed more light on where the A380/A350 sales will come from. Instead we have post after post of negativity. Why can't we be more positive? Rather than questioning if an extra 4% discount makes the Max a dud why can't we just commend Boeing on a big deal to WN? Rather than dismissing JL's claim as PR and an exercise in optimism why can't we actually reserve judgement until at least after Farnborough? JL's A380/A350 targets are quite modest. It is not like he said he would sell 100 A380 and 200 A350 in 2012.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 3:11 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):
Why?

Growth, better long haul big lifter.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):
If you think the A-340 was a good long haul airplane, then you really need to get out more often. The A-340 is out of production because the B-777 is a better airplane for the long haul.

Ouch, you know how to hurt someone's feelings. My wife and kids complain the opposite and say I should stay in more. Not sure who to believe now.. 
The problem is that with the 77W, for the pax, they seem to have taken a step backwards. Yes they have new entertainment etc, but the noise is constant in your ears. The air con/outside noise is terrible. The 772/773 is much better, so I am not sure what Boeing did, but maybe some weight saving increased the noise level.
 
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 3:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
Outside of a possible MTOW increase, I don't see it.

Airbus needs to deliver another ~100 A380-800s before they start pedaling the A380-900.

Oh, I agree. I do look forward to the 389 though. And heck, I'd love to see a 3810 - don't know if that's even an option though.

-Dave
-Dave
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 6:53 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
As I recall, he has predicted a lot of A380 sales that have not come to pass.

In his, and its, defence, a lot of s**t has happened to the A380 that I suspect wasn't factored into his claims at the time they were made.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
I acknowledge that he has done an incredible job for Airbus.

Have to agree with you there....

Quoting CM (Reply 38):
My, how quickly we forget the truly crazy predictions he makes sometimes

how quickly we forget that he seems to be right more than he is wrong.....

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 40):
Instead we have post after post of negativity

Indeed.

rgds
 
CM
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 8:40 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 43):
Indeed

Remind me again why it's OK to reign down unmitigated praise on the man, but it's "negativity" to provide a direct quote of his words, with source attached? The thread is about a prediction of future orders. We look at past performance as an indication of JL's ability to accurately predict the future. Somehow it is OK to show examples of when he's been brilliantly right, but in poor taste to point out when he's been brutally wrong? Give me a break. A little objetivity goes a long way toward not getting our feelings hurt here.
 
babybus
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 9:02 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year.

I think you are wrong. It has nothing to do with the wing crack problem. The problem is that the A380 was planned as the glittering diamond of the new airport in Doha. That airport is currently seriously behind schedule.

As planned the A380 will arrive to showcase the new airport when it is ready to be opened. Both events will be well worth waiting for.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
art
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 9:14 am

Airbus seems to like holding back the announcement of orders until Farnborough/Le Bourget so I guess JL has already negotiated orders for most of or all of the 30 A380's he predicts. Assuming that A380 orders are announced at Farnborough, the interesting aspect to me will be if they are all re-orders or if a new customer is announced.

On the 60/40 WB prediction, unless Boeing cannot make the MAX competitive with the NEO, Boeing can always squeeze margins to claw back sales that would otherwise have been lost to Airbus. Over the life of the MAX, will the aircraft be very profitable to Boeing (as the 737NG was)? It will cost Boeing far more to design a 737NG upgrade than it will cost Airbus to design an A320 upgrade. 737 is hampered by fan size restrictions that do not apply to A320, preventing Boeing making optimal use of the CFM Leap engine. With those 2 factors in mind - higher development cost for Boeing and a less efficient aircraft emerging at the end of the process - I see the NEO putting Airbus in a position where they can make much more profit on the NEO program than Boeing can make on the MAX program.

Another problem lurking in the background for Boeing: what if the Euro weakens substantialy against the $ over the next few years? That would put Airbus in a position where they had a better NB developed at a lower cost that was progressively falling in $ price relative to the MAX.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 11:20 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 43):

In his, and its, defence, a lot of s**t has happened to the A380 that I suspect wasn't factored into his claims at the time they were made.

Quite true, as I have said in other words. I am only criticizing the poster who said most of JL's predictions were accurate, not JL. From what I have seen he has done his job superbly, but his job description is not to be 100% accurate about sales projections. It is to sell airplanes, and that he has done extremely well.

Quoting art (Reply 46):
On the 60/40 WB prediction, unless Boeing cannot make the MAX competitive with the NEO, Boeing can always squeeze margins to claw back sales that would otherwise have been lost to Airbus.

With fuel prices as high as they are, nobody is going to buy new aircraft that are significantly less economical to operate than their competitor, no matter how big a discount you give. Airbus tried that with the A346; look how well that worked out. Original price is still a relatively small part of the overall cost of owning and operating an airliner, and the MAX is going to have to be competitive with the NEO. If it isn't Boeing will be in trouble, period. And I see no reason why it can't. As it is, the 737NG consumes less fuel than the A320 on short legs, and somewhat more on long ones (according to charts that have been posted.) I do think it likely that the A320NEO will gain slightly more that the MAX, and hence will shift the balance slightly, but my impression is that the 737NG enjoys a slight edge in operating costs overall and hence will likely end up at parity. Even if it is behind by a percent or two it will not be enough to make large operators to switch, but it will force Boeing to bring on the NSA sooner rather than later.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Cerecl
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 11:51 am

Quoting CM (Reply 44):
Remind me again why it's OK to reign down unmitigated praise on the man,

No one said JL is the second coming of Jesus or he can do no wrong.

Quoting CM (Reply 44):
but it's "negativity" to provide a direct quote of his words, with source attached?
Quoting CM (Reply 38):
how quickly we forget the truly crazy predictions he makes sometimes

Truly crazy to predict A350-1000 will have a sales spree? Optimistic, maybe, but crazy? In what way? Just because a prediction did not seem to come to pass in the time frame specified does not make it crazy. If JL said A3510 can make all passengers riding on it look 10 years younger, that is crazy.

Quoting CM (Reply 38):
Leahy's predictions are made for effect. They are about stirring the market. They don't have anything to do with what's really going to happen.

Right, so fleet planning personnels of major airlines wake up one day, read that JL plans to sell 30 each of A380 and A350, and start to think "Wow Airbus is really selling those slots fast! Let's act quickly, 10 A380s for us too!"

I don't want to get into an argument about what constitutes negativity. I hope I will be reading a post with the same level of objectivity and positivity from you if Boeing announces that its target is to sell 30+30 787 and 747-8 in 2012.
 
Cerecl
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RE: Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market

Sat May 26, 2012 11:58 am

Anyone from CX cares to comment on the "hint" of it ordering A380? Is there any major A350 (or 787) order in the pipeline (LH, BA, etc.)?

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