Deltajfk
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Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:30 pm

Its been about two years since the last topic on this subject. Earlier i was looking on SeatGuru and it says that no ex northwest aircraft have any inflight entertainment except Wifi. I would think that they would want to have a consistant product throughout their entire fleet. I have flown on Delta's aircraft with Avod and some of the ex NW A320's. Going from having Avod to nothing is a big disappointment. With the obvious exceptions being the MD-88's for weight issues. Whats stopping them from adding Ptv's to the A320's and 757's?
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting deltajfk (Thread starter):
Its been about two years since the last topic on this subject. Earlier i was looking on SeatGuru and it says that no ex northwest aircraft have any inflight entertainment except Wifi. I would think that they would want to have a consistant product throughout their entire fleet. I have flown on Delta's aircraft with Avod and some of the ex NW A320's. Going from having Avod to nothing is a big disappointment. With the obvious exceptions being the MD-88's for weight issues. Whats stopping them from adding Ptv's to the A320's and 757's?

Currently, plans to add AVOD to existing domestic aircraft are on hold due to high fuel prices. However, the 737-900ERs should come with AVOD from the factory, and I'd expect they will replace all of the 5500-series ex-NW 752s as well as some older PMDL 752s.

And actually, the 753s do have IFE, although it is overhead video rather than AVOD.

[Edited 2012-06-12 13:36:28]
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PHX787
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:37 pm

Some of the older 757s, A319/20s, and 738s (DL aircraft) are being replaced with the order of 100 739s. This will begin next year. Also the addition of the 717s is going to replace some of the older A319s as well. I do not see DL purchasing any more Airbus aircraft any time in the near future. If anything, the 787s will be dropped and replaced with GEnx-powered ones, and more 73Xs will be ordered, most likely the 738MAX IMO.
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timf
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Also the addition of the 717s is going to replace some of the older A319s as well.

I will believe this when I see it. The A319s are newer than most of the domestic fleet, with the oldest aircraft dating from 1999. The 717s are supposed to replace the DC-9-50s and regional jets.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:00 pm

I saw in another post that the oldest A319 is from 1999 if so then wouldn't it be a waste getting rid of some of them
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:05 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Also the addition of the 717s is going to replace some of the older A319s as well.

I doubt this.

Here's my current understanding of what will happen to the ex-NW narrowbody fleet, in general:

DC-9-50s: Replaced by 717, assuming deal goes through.
A319s: staying around indefinitely, probably for replacement in the 2020s with neo or MAX.
A320s (newer batch): see above.
A320s (older batch): Capacity replaced by 739ER order.
757s (5500s): Capacity replaced by 739ER order.
757s (5600s): staying around indefinitely, probably for replacement around 2020 with neo or MAX.
757s (5600s Atlantic): Moving to domestic ETOPS fleet, staying around indefinitely.
757-300s: staying around indefinitely; invaluable for Hawaii missions.

To the extent that the 717s replace capacity from aircraft other than DC-9-50s, those aircraft will be 1) 50-seat regionals beyond those replaced by the new 76-seaters and 2) MD-88s.

[Edited 2012-06-12 14:06:58]
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:06 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
738s (DL aircraft) are being replaced with the order of 100 739s. This will begin next year

No 738s will be replace. 767s, 757s and A320s.

Quoting deltajfk (Reply 4):

um yeah, 10x when you replace them with aircraft that are just as old or older.

Quoting timf (Reply 3):

You wont see it. Little busses will stay around for a while.
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Josh32121
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:14 pm

Quoting deltajfk (Thread starter):
Whats stopping them from adding Ptv's to the A320's and 757's?

Not worth the cost
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:19 pm

Quoting timf (Reply 3):
The A319s are newer than most of the domestic fleet, with the oldest aircraft dating from 1999. The 717s are supposed to replace the DC-9-50s and regional jets.

You are aware that DL uses ~120 seat DC-9-50s a a replacement for ~120 seat A319s NW rejected... right?  

[Edited 2012-06-12 14:21:16]
 
n515cr
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:44 pm

Back to the 757s, there was an older thread that outlined all the sub-types and the plans at the time (2010ish, I think) for each. It may have been archived by now.

If there are plans to try to standardize on a few types, that would be interesting news, but it seems that the 739 order will replace many of the older ones. Those happen to be the ones without AVOD and whose longest flights are transcons, so it has an effect of standardization.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:53 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 5):
A320s (older batch): Capacity replaced by 739ER order.

The oldest 320 are roughly the same age as the M88. As an older 320 remains significantly more efficient to operate than an M88 approximately the same age, I have a hard time believing DL will retire the former before the latter.

Quoting n515cr (Reply 9):
Those happen to be the ones without AVOD and whose longest flights are transcons, so it has an effect of standardization.

There's about 100 757 without AVOD, and several earlier deliveries with AVOD, so that's not likely to happen.

DL hasn't given its definite fleet plan yet, and those plans are likely volatile to changing economic conditions.

[Edited 2012-06-12 16:57:28]
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:05 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 10):
There's about 100 757 without AVOD, and several earlier deliveries with AVOD, so that's not likely to happen.

DL hasn't given its definite fleet plan yet, and those plans are likely volatile to changing economic conditions.

If any AVOD aircraft are retired, I hope Delta transplants their seats and IFE systems onto newer 757s that currently lack AVOD (such as the 5600-series). This is similar to what DL did when some of the domestic 763s were returned to the lessor, transplanting their seats and IFE onto the 76Ts.

[Edited 2012-06-12 17:07:11]
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n515cr
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:06 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 10):
There's about 100 757 without AVOD, and several earlier deliveries with AVOD, so that's not likely to happen.

Agreed - I didn't mean 100% replacement/standardization, just a decent percentage. Sorry for the confusion.  Smile

[Edited 2012-06-12 17:09:22]
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:10 am

Quoting n515cr (Reply 12):
Agreed - I didn't mean 100% replacement/standardization, just a decent percentage.

Interestingly, N610DL (the former Pink 757):

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is a 1985 build. I'd expect this would be one of the aircraft slated for replacement.
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:14 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 10):
The oldest 320 are roughly the same age as the M88. As an older 320 remains significantly more efficient to operate than an M88 approximately the same age, I have a hard time believing DL will retire the former before the latter.

Do you have any basis and/or proof that, in Delta's case, the A320 is "significantly" more efficient to operate than the MD-88?
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
738s (DL aircraft) are being replaced with the order of 100 739s.

This statement is 100% non-factual.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:29 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):

How? Delta has been parking those 9s and the 319s are staying the same.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 10):
The oldest 320 are roughly the same age as the M88. As an older 320 remains significantly more efficient to operate than an M88 approximately the same age, I have a hard time believing DL will retire the former before the latter.

So Richard Anderson doesn't tell the truth?
"The new planes will replace Delta workhorses such as the DC-9-50s and Airbus A320s that it got when it bought Northwest Airlines in 2008, as well as Boeing 757-200s, which both airlines have operated. The average age of Delta's planes is 16 years. It has some Boeing planes that are less than two years old. But its DC-9s date back to the 1970s. They are the oldest commercial passenger planes flown today by a U.S. airline."


early 320s are getting ready to cycle out. Same reason why the ones NW dumped during BK were parted out and not moved like the 319s.
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:30 am

Quoting cat3dual (Reply 15):
This statement is 100% non-factual.
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 6):
No 738s will be replace.
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 5):
I doubt this.
Quoting timf (Reply 3):
I will believe this when I see it

Ok I heard all of you the first time. I got my sources mixed up and I'm doing a million things at once.

To review- the older 320s and the older 757s are being replaced by 739s. DC95 being replaced by 717. There we go.

I have no clue what's going to happen to the older 767s, in particular the non-ER models. I think that's all bent on when DL decides to take delivery of the 787 which it's starting to look like it's gonna be another 7-8 years before that happens.

Also: I know DL likes the 330s, but what do they think about the 319/320?


[Edited 2012-06-12 17:32:38]

[Edited 2012-06-12 17:34:02]
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compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:56 am

Quoting cat3dual (Reply 14):
Do you have any basis and/or proof that, in Delta's case, the A320 is "significantly" more efficient to operate than the MD-88?

The 320 is a significantly more efficient aircraft to operate than the MD-82 (88). Do you have any basis and/or proof to suggest that, in DL's case, the MD-82 (88) suddenly became significantly more efficient to operate than the 320? Did DL install some magical upgrade to its MD-88?  DL, via NW, has been operating the type for more than 20 years and currently has one of the world's largest fleets of Airbus narrowbodies.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 16):
So Richard Anderson doesn't tell the truth?

He was making a general, not definite, statement. With high-priced fuel here to stay, I find it hard to believe that DL will phase out nearly 50 A320 while maintaining a fleet of nearly 150 MD-82 (88). The DL pro-Boeing crowd here maintains the longevity of the 320 is limited, but there's no proof to support such statement.

At this point, no definite fleet strategy has been released. Until such happens, I wouldn't cling to a general statement.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 16):
Same reason why the ones NW dumped during BK were parted out and not moved like the 319s.

That's not the reason NW dumped those 319/320 during bankruptcy. It's just another logical fallacy dominating a.net.

EDIT (because I read your statement wrong): If you want to know why those aircraft were parted out, as opposed to being moved to a new operator, I suggest you sign up for Accounting 101 at your local community college. You may learn a thing or two  Wink.

[Edited 2012-06-12 18:08:12]
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:06 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 10):
The oldest 320 are roughly the same age as the M88. As an older 320 remains significantly more efficient to operate than an M88 approximately the same age, I have a hard time believing DL will retire the former before the latter.

Old A320s may be efficient but NW's would be running up against hours limits. They are scrappable. Airbus parts bring money.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 16):
How? Delta has been parking those 9s and the 319s are staying the same.

I understand an analysis was done at NW Tech Ops and the D95 was cheaper to fly on short hops. Newer isn't always better. So, those A319 (still newish aircraft) were sent away.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:14 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 17):
I have no clue what's going to happen to the older 767s, in particular the non-ER models.

Non-ETOPS A models: Capacity replaced by 739ERs, with gauge adjustments to transcon routes as needed.
ETOPS A models: Will probably stick around until the 787 arrives. These craft are newer than the non-ETOPS frames and there's no good replacement on the immediate horizon.
ERs: Will all get a completely new interior and stick around at least until the 787 arrives.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 17):
what do they think about the 319/320?

They like the 320 just fine, despite the fevered wishes of some fanboys. The 319 was problematic at first because it didn't have enough seats, but is making the airline happier after being reconfigured.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
That's not the reason NW dumped those 319/320 during bankruptcy. It's just another logical fallacy dominating a.net.

   High lease payments will sure change the economics of a type.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
The DL pro-Boeing crowd here maintains the longevity of the 320 is limited, but there's no proof to support such statement.

Well, the MD-88 has a significantly higher design cycle life than the A320 (80,000 vs. 48,000). Airbus was planning to increase A320 design life but I haven't heard that the higher number has been certified. DL's earlier A320s are starting to approach the limit.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 16):
early 320s are getting ready to cycle out.

  ... but the later ones are good to go for at least a decade.

[Edited 2012-06-12 18:20:20]
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:21 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):

He was making a general, not definite, statement. With high-priced fuel here to stay, I find it hard to believe that DL will phase out nearly 50 A320 while maintaining a fleet of nearly 150 MD-82 (88). The DL pro-Boeing crowd here maintains the longevity of the 320 is limited, but there's no proof to support such statement.

ok, few things, 1) Delta only has 117 M88s. 2) Its not proBoeing. Its all Airbus. they set the cycle limits on airplanes.
the early A320 cycle limits are in the high 30K low 40K range(I do however believe AB has them up to the 60K range now). Where the MD88s are in the high 50K low 60K ball park. This isn't airbus vs Boeing, and has nothing to do with Boeing. Its a simple fact Douglas planes are tanks. (you wont see a 737 or a A320 with 120K cycles like the 9)

Or you can keep saying I'm wrong and I'll be happy to bring this up with 320s start heading to VCV and the 88s are getting new cockpits and still flying. Which ever way works for me.  
Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):

That's not the reason NW dumped those 319/320 during bankruptcy

Dude you need to work on your reading skills. I'll try this again,
Same reason why the ones NW dumped during BK were parted out and not moved like the 319s.

Read it a few times, slowly. I didn't say they were dumped because they were old, I said once they were dumped they were parted out.....because they were old. The much younger A319s were sold to a new company.
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compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:22 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
I understand an analysis was done at NW Tech Ops and the D95 was cheaper to fly on short hops. Newer isn't always better. So, those A319 (still newish aircraft) were sent away.

When NW did its "anaysis," nobody thought fuel would soar to ~$100/barrel and stay there indefinitely. Had that been the case, a more aggressive attempt may have been made to keep the 319/320 disposed of ink bankruptcy.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
Old A320s may be efficient but NW's would be running up against hours limits. They are scrappable. Airbus parts bring money.

Aircraft longevity is generally measured in cycles. NW's 320 have spent most of their performing longer stage lengths, while the DC-9, MD-82 (until 1999) and 72S (until 2003) performed shorter stage lengths. Today, DL is predominately deploying the 320 on longer stage lengths. Until a credible source proves otherwise, I don't buy into the "myth" that Airbus narrow-bodies have shorter lifespans than their Boeing counterparts.

I wholly agree that the salvageable value of the 320 will be taken into consideration against its operating economics vs. the MD-80. But I strongly believe the salvageable value won't be as strong as the savings vs. operating against the MD-80. That's not to say such examples will be removed from service; but as a whole, I doubt DL will WFU nearly 50 A320 while maintaining 150 MD-80. It just doesn't make much sense.
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:28 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 22):
Aircraft longevity is generally measured in cycles. NW's 320 have spent most of their performing longer stage lengths, while the DC-9, MD-82 (until 1999) and 72S (until 2003) performed shorter stage lengths.

Nevertheless, the first batch of A320s are 22-24 years old and have had very heavy utilization throughout that span, not always on long flights. The reason that 739ERs are replacing A320s and not MD-88s is because those older A320s are approaching the cycle limit. You can verify this by doing the math.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:55 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
Its all Airbus. they set the cycle limits on airplanes.
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 23):
The reason that 739ERs are replacing A320s and not MD-88s is because those older A320s are approaching the cycle limit. You can verify this by doing the math.

Has Airbus abandoned its Extended Service Goal program for the 320?

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
Read it a few times, slowly.

Unless it took you 20 minutes to construct that post, you probably read my edit   (my last edit was to correct spelling).
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:56 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):

  ... but the later ones are good to go for at least a decade.

very true. The 30? late builds will be around for 10 more years.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 22):
Until a credible source proves otherwise, I don't buy into the "myth" that Airbus narrow-bodies have shorter lifespans than their Boeing counterparts.

wow. Google it. smh.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 23):

Nevertheless, the first batch of A320s are 22-24 years old and have had very heavy utilization throughout that span, not always on long flights. The reason that 739ERs are replacing A320s and not MD-88s is because those older A320s are approaching the cycle limit. You can verify this by doing the math.

Not hard....
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:00 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 25):
wow. Google it. smh.

I did, and it appears Airbus is still working on the ESG for the 320 family. No surprise, it has every incentive to do so.
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:03 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):

738s are not going anywhere.

I think the first that will be send to the desert are the 5500 series 757s and early A320s. The A320s are cycle sensitive so they will be first to go when the 739s arrive. The A319s will likely stay put on short hauls, the 717s will replace the D95s.

What I can't figure out is why DL is revamping the older 5500 series 757s with new carpets, lighting and sidewalls if they are planning on retiring them.
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dbo861
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:01 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 27):
What I can't figure out is why DL is revamping the older 5500 series 757s with new carpets, lighting and sidewalls if they are planning on retiring them.

Are these airframes as close to the end of their useful lives as people make them sound on a.net? If there's still another 2-3 years left in these birds, maybe DL sees a big enough ROI to update the interiors on them and then use the initial batch of 739ER deliveries to replace the oldest A320s.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:12 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 5):
DC-9-50s: Replaced by 717, assuming deal goes through.
A319s: staying around indefinitely, probably for replacement in the 2020s with neo or MAX.
A320s (newer batch): see above.
A320s (older batch): Capacity replaced by 739ER order.
757s (5500s): Capacity replaced by 739ER order.
757s (5600s): staying around indefinitely, probably for replacement around 2020 with neo or MAX.
757s (5600s Atlantic): Moving to domestic ETOPS fleet, staying around indefinitely.
757-300s: staying around indefinitely; invaluable for Hawaii missions.

This is essentially the story. All aircraft are planning to stay in the fleet until the end of their usable life (as of now, as always subject to change).

The DC-9-50s will be gone by mid/late 2013.
The oldest/high cycle A320s will begin to be removed as they time out at their next heavy maintenance cycle once the 739ERs start to join the fleet
The oldest/high cycle 757s (5500 series) will begin to be removed as they time out at their next heavy maintenance cycle

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 1):
Currently, plans to add AVOD to existing domestic aircraft are on hold due to high fuel prices. However, the 737-900ERs should come with AVOD from the factory, and I'd expect they will replace all of the 5500-series ex-NW 752s as well as some older PMDL 752s.

And actually, the 753s do have IFE, although it is overhead video rather than AVOD.

All plans to retroactively add IFE to any narrowbody aircraft at this time is on hold. Yes, the 739ERs are expected to be delivered new with an AVOD system.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
You are aware that DL uses ~120 seat DC-9-50s a a replacement for ~120 seat A319s NW rejected... right?
Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
I understand an analysis was done at NW Tech Ops and the D95 was cheaper to fly on short hops. Newer isn't always better. So, those A319 (still newish aircraft) were sent away.
Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 22):
When NW did its "anaysis," nobody thought fuel would soar to ~$100/barrel and stay there indefinitely. Had that been the case, a more aggressive attempt may have been made to keep the 319/320 disposed of ink bankruptcy.

This was true at the time back in 2005, as said when fuel costs were low and the A319s had high ownership costs. The total operating cost was comparable, if not better for the DC-9s on short routes. As said, the equation starts to change as fuel costs increase and ownership costs were in many cases renegotiated post-bankruptcy.

The fact of the matter was that in bankruptcy, NW needed to shed unneeded assets. The airline shrunk. They removed aircraft from almost every fleet type. Many DC-9s were retired, some early-build A320s were returned to the lessor (who subsequently parted them out, since they believed they could get more money in parts than with the glut of second hand aircraft on the market, wanted out of the airplane leasing business, or already made a sufficient return on their investment). Some newer A319s were sold (since they had significant value on the second hand market. A bunch of 757s were removed from the fleet too. The point is that each fleet, and actually down to each aircraft had a different story as to why it was kept in service or removed from the fleet.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 23):
Nevertheless, the first batch of A320s are 22-24 years old and have had very heavy utilization throughout that span, not always on long flights. The reason that 739ERs are replacing A320s and not MD-88s is because those older A320s are approaching the cycle limit. You can verify this by doing the math.

NW A320s have been heavily utilized throughout their life. They generally did not do too many the shortest of short hops like the numerous sub-300 mile routes that NW had in the Upper Midwest, however they did do a lot of DTW/MSP - East Coast, Mid-Atlantic.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 27):
What I can't figure out is why DL is revamping the older 5500 series 757s with new carpets, lighting and sidewalls if they are planning on retiring them.

A relatively inexpensive cosmetic renovation to help give better brand consistency. The PMNW 757 (5500s) needed something. Initially DL was going to park them sooner rather than later, but they decided to do the cosmetic interior work, since they were going to keep them another ~3 years.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:17 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 24):

Unless it took you 20 minutes to construct that post, you probably read my edit   (my last edit was to correct spelling).

didn't see your edit, but its was most economic to scrap them vs sell them. but why do you think that is?
I'm not saying this because I hate the 320, they could order 50 tomorrow and they will last just as long as the new 737(I think, somewhere in the ball park at least) It just happens the older A320s are going to cycle out. That was the (IMO wise) choice Airbus made to grow market share.
I'll go ahead and point out Delta is planning cockpit mods for the M88s. Like it or not(and just to tell you the truth I dislike the 88s about as much as I dislike the bus.) the 88s will be around for a while.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 24):

Has Airbus abandoned its Extended Service Goal program for the 320?

No, but that *should* only increase flight hours. (I can't see how they could add to the cycle limit without replacing pressure bulkheads and such. I wouldn't think they would be able to paper work change the 320s to add cycles.)

I do believe however that new A320s are gaining more and more cycles as they come off the line. IIRC a new A32S is in the 60K ball park now with AB planning on new builds being able to hit 100K at some point.
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compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:31 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 30):
No, but that *should* only increase flight hours.

It's suppose to increase cycles. This is consistent with other aircraft types, which have seen their maximum cycles increase as the type aged.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 30):
Like it or not(and just to tell you the truth I dislike the 88s about as much as I dislike the bus.) the 88s will be around for a while.

Fleet plans routinely change. If the 320 completes its ESG goal, and any modification costs remain reasonable, I wouldn't be surprised to see the M88 phased out first.

A lot can change:
- DL could acquire additional used aircraft, whether it be 717, 737-NG, 320 or MD-90.
- DL may be in an expansionary mode and prolong the life of existing aircraft, while using the MD-90 primarily as additional capacity.
- DL could tweak its charter contract and swap some 320 for the 319, using those 320 exclusively for charter.

In any event, most of the 320 -- given DL's current deployment -- will have enough life left within them to remain in the fleet until the 737 MAX / 320NEO enter service, should DL choose to do so.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 30):
didn't see your edit, but its was most economic to scrap them vs sell them. but why do you think that is?

You need to study the concept of asset depreciation.
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Flighty
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:57 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 31):
I wouldn't be surprised to see the M88 phased out first.

These are two well worn fleets. They will both be leaving.

Delta enjoys a dividend from its own Tech Ops expertise. It can operate M90s and M88s as fine modern aircraft. Other global carriers require hand-holding from B or A. They can't do what Delta can do.

For that reason, I am thinking they might lean further toward MD than would be typical.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 29):
This was true at the time back in 2005, as said when fuel costs were low and the A319s had high ownership costs.

Yes and it is possible DL/NW guessed dead wrong on some of those things. Fuel did go higher than you would want deploying DC-10s on long haul (!) That must have hurt so bad.
 
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:50 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
Delta enjoys a dividend from its own Tech Ops expertise. It can operate M90s and M88s as fine modern aircraft. Other global carriers require hand-holding from B or A. They can't do what Delta can do.

The MD-90 are modern aircraft, the MD-80 have significant disadvantages toward next-generation narrow bodies including the MD-90, 737-NG and A320 family. As good as Tech Ops is, it cannot fix the inefficiencies of the of the MD-80.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
Yes and it is possible DL/NW guessed dead wrong on some of those things. Fuel did go higher than you would want deploying DC-10s on long haul (!) That must have hurt so bad.

Thankfully, the largest fuel spikes occurred nearly 18mos. after the last DC-10 was retired.

Recall that post-bankruptcy, DL discussed expanding its mainline fleet by adding used aircraft, including additional MD-80.
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:41 pm

Airbus upgraded the life cycle of the A-32X series a few years ago to 120,000 hours and 60,000 cycles. The original life cycle was 60,000 hours and 30,000 cycles, so Airbus doubled that. Either way, the A-320 is designed to now fly 60,000 two hour missions, as an average. The PMNW A-320s are currrently in the 50,000 to 55,000 cycle range and accumulate some 2,000 cycles per year. So the math says these A-320s will begin retireing in 2.5 to 5 years. Of course that also means some will retire short of 60,000 cycles if they are due expensive "C" or "D" checks.
 
bobnwa
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:49 pm

Quoting Josh32121 (Reply 7):
Not worth the cost

At the risk of offending the AVOD cheerleaders on this forum, I totally agree with your statement.
 
compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:45 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 34):
The PMNW A-320s are currrently in the 50,000 to 55,000 cycle range and accumulate some 2,000 cycles per year. So the math says these A-320s will begin retireing in 2.5 to 5 years.

The oldest 320 remaining in DL's fleet were manufactured in 1990-1993 (heavy in 1992 & 1993 deliveries); many of these aircraft spent extensive time rotating in-and-out of the desert in the early 2000s. These aircraft do not have 50K+ cycles on them.

[Edited 2012-06-13 06:46:27]
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DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 16):Same reason why the ones NW dumped during BK were parted out and not moved like the 319s.
That's not the reason NW dumped those 319/320 during bankruptcy. It's just another logical fallacy dominating a.net.

EDIT (because I read your statement wrong): If you want to know why those aircraft were parted out, as opposed to being moved to a new operator, I suggest you sign up for Accounting 101 at your local community college. You may learn a thing or two

When NW entered Chapter 11 they renegotiated the lease prices down on most aircraft. The banks did not want to sit on a few billion dollars worth of airplanes sitting in the desert. On some, the owners refused to drop the lease prices because the sum of the parts were worth more than the entire aircraft. Since NW did not own them they could care less what happened to them and their rightful owners decided to part them out. This was done to a few A320's and one 757-5500 (N524US). Also, NW sold 5 A319's to the Russian airline S9. (I am assuming they sold them--they may have been leased aircraft and were transferred to S9 by the lessors.)
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 34):
The PMNW A-320s are currrently in the 50,000 to 55,000 cycle range and accumulate some 2,000 cycles per year.

I'm not sure about either your DSG number or your math. The latest DSG I've seen for the A320 is 48,000 cycles. The birds are actually in the 30s.

Frames don't necessarily "cycle out" because they actually hit the DSG, but because they reach a heavy check at a point where the number of cycles still available after the heavy check is too low for the check to be economical.

[Edited 2012-06-13 07:27:32]
 
Josh32121
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:52 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 35):
Quoting Josh32121 (Reply 7):
Not worth the cost

At the risk of offending the AVOD cheerleaders on this forum, I totally agree with your statement.

No offense taken here, of course.  
 
TrijetsRMissed
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):

The 320 is a significantly more efficient aircraft to operate than the MD-82 (88). Do you have any basis and/or proof to suggest that, in DL's case, the MD-82 (88) suddenly became significantly more efficient to operate than the 320? Did DL install some magical upgrade to its MD-88?

First of all, the MD-82 and MD-88 are from the same family, but are not the same airplane. A 1992 build -88 will outperform an '85 build -82. Please don't confuse the two. Also, I have news for you. A 1990 build A320 does not have the same performance metrics as a NB.

Given by your profile and postings here, I'm assuming you don't have industry experience or inside information, and you are using book/internet knowledge and bias for your statements. Please correct me if I'm wrong... and be honest...  
Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
The DL pro-Boeing crowd here maintains the longevity of the 320 is limited, but there's no proof to support such statement.

Ah, never mind. I have my answer.  


The MD-88s are either paid off or have very favorable lease terms. Related to the A320, the -88 has superior economies of scale, and reportedly has aged more gracefully on the MX end. Also, the -88 is economical on the legs that DL utilizes them. A320 missions can largely be replaced by existing types or future deliveries. All of which are in greater numbers than the A320.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
He was making a general, not definite, statement. With high-priced fuel here to stay, I find it hard to believe that DL will phase out nearly 50 A320 while maintaining a fleet of nearly 150 MD-82 (88).

I'll bet you found it hard to believe DL would acquire secondhand 717s and MD-90s too, right?. RA and DL have acknowledged the majority of the A320 fleet will be retired soon with the 739ER deliveries. Credible sources hypothesize the entire A320 fleet will be phased out by mid decade. You're not alone in not believing this...(and remember, when in doubt, use "fan boys" in your logic)...I'll be happy to put you on the "I told you so" list.  
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
Or you can keep saying I'm wrong and I'll be happy to bring this up with 320s start heading to VCV and the 88s are getting new cockpits and still flying.

  
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tommy767
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:10 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
I'll bet you found it hard to believe DL would acquire secondhand 717s and MD-90s too, right?. RA and DL have acknowledged the majority of the A320 fleet will be retired soon with the 739ER deliveries.

Let's be clear: the M90 and 717 are a way different animal than the M82/M83 (and that goes for the mass quantities that AA is stuck with for now.) The economics are far more favorable for DL to keep these planes. The M88s are better than M82 but not by much. I've also heard that it's a wash to compare an M88 and M83 but the M83 obviously has more range.
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
RA and DL have acknowledged the majority of the A320 fleet will be retired soon with the 739ER deliveries.

   The majority are early builds.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
Credible sources hypothesize the entire A320 fleet will be phased out by mid decade.

   I haven't seen or heard this reported by any source I would consider remotely credible. Only, yes, fanboys (or, if you prefer, "Boeing partisans").

At best, it was an inference from the two facts that 1) the early A320s were due for relatively quick replacement and 2) RA expressed some dissatisfaction with the A319s immediately after the merger. But the airline is much happier with the A319s since the reconfiguration, and a fleet of 58 A319s and 27 A320s is more than enough to support the two types and make it more economical to keep them around than to engage in massive premature fleet replacement.

[Edited 2012-06-13 11:27:19]
 
compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:01 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
Given by your profile and postings here, I'm assuming you don't have industry experience or inside information, and you are using book/internet knowledge and bias for your statements. Please correct me if I'm wrong... and be honest...

You've asked me the same question once before.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
Credible sources hypothesize the entire A320 fleet will be phased out by mid decade. You're not alone in not believing this...

The newest A320 are younger than almost the entire 738 fleet; you're persistent that if DL phased out the 320 fleet, operating 20+ 320 would be costly as it is a unique type to the 319. You're dead wrong and yet you question my industry knowledge? Heck, Spirit Airlines -- one of the cheapest airlines on the planet -- operates a pair of orphan 321.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
I'll bet you found it hard to believe DL would acquire secondhand 717s and MD-90s too, right?

Before DL announced its intentions to acquire second-hand MD-90, I stated that I fully believed the airline would pursue such option; the DL fanboys disagreed. You can check my previous postings.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 40):
First of all, the MD-82 and MD-88 are from the same family, but are not the same airplane. A 1992 build -88 will outperform an '85 build -82. Please don't confuse the two.

LOL, but an MD-88 is an MD-82, with few improvements. No doubt new-build aircraft become more efficient as the type ages, but an MD-80 is an MD-80 and an Airbus 320 is an Airbus 320.

If Airbus completes its ESG and its cost efficient to keep the 320 flying, I suspect they'll outlast the MD-80. If ESG fails to go through (and Airbus has every incentive to ensure it does so), then I agree with the above scenarios. Economics & operating environment continues to change, high-priced oil is here indefinitely. Until DL releases its formal fleet plan, I'm certainly not going to hold RA to a vague conversation.
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:20 pm

I'd expect that DL will likely order the 737 MAX 8 when they decide to replace the MD-88 fleet. However, the 739ER order is primarily to replace older A320s, 757s, and domestic 763s.
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compensateme
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 44):
I'd expect that DL will likely order the 737 MAX 8 when they decide to replace the MD-88 fleet. However, the 739ER order is primarily to replace older A320s, 757s, and domestic 763s.

DL has yet to release a formal fleet plan. Until it does so, the topic is speculative.
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NWAROOSTER
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:36 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
LOL, but an MD-88 is an MD-82, with few improvements.

I may be wrong, but some of Delta's MD-88s are upgraded MD-82s.   
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:36 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 45):
DL has yet to release a formal fleet plan. Until it does so, the topic is speculative.

Everything is speculative to a certain extent. The airline can always change its plans. But it has publicly announced in a press release that the plan for the 739ER order is to replace 757, 767, and A320 equipment. It would have to publicly announce any change to that plan as well. Until we get such an announcement, we can safely assume the airline intends to use the 739ERs to replace the equipment named in the release.

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1428

Quoting Delta Air Lines:
As a result of maintenance efficiencies and a 15 to 20 percent improvement in fuel consumption per seat, the Boeing 737-900ER will have lower unit costs than the older technology Boeing 757 and 767 and Airbus A320 aircraft that it will replace.

It's fine to say you think they will change their plans to replace MD-80s instead of A320s, although until Airbus gets the extended cycle limit certified you have to explain how the airline would deal with the cycles on the older A320s. It's inaccurate to say we don't know their plans yet.

[Edited 2012-06-13 13:37:29]
 
TrijetsRMissed
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:03 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
Delta enjoys a dividend from its own Tech Ops expertise. It can operate M90s and M88s as fine modern aircraft. Other global carriers require hand-holding from B or A. They can't do what Delta can do.

For that reason, I am thinking they might lean further toward MD than would be typical.

Exactly why if 88-100 717s are acquired, the long term upkeep of an orphan A320 fleet becomes more remote. On the narrow-body end, resources will largely be put towards NB 737 variants and existing MD-vintage twins.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
you're persistent that if DL phased out the 320 fleet, operating 20+ 320 would be costly as it is a unique type to the 319. You're dead wrong and yet you question my industry knowledge?

I've stood on the island before and have been vindicated... I wouldn't claim to know what's going on at UA or US...

At some point later in the decade, we'll likely see DL condense it's mainline fleet. As it stands, the A320 and 752 sub-fleets are at the top of the list for contraction. To their credit, DL has made it work in the short term. But such a diverse fleet top to bottom is not sustainable long term. In time, it will be a priority to streamline equipment and reduce redundancies, therein improving costs and operational efficiencies. I don't know why the sheer notion of this scenario is so hard to fathom.

I speculate that DL won't fly an orphan fleet of 27 A320s for a decade plus - unless

a) DL falls deeply into the red, making the replacement expense no longer financially viable OR
b) An unforeseen Airbus order is firmed

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 43):
LOL, but an MD-88 is an MD-82, with few improvements. No doubt new-build aircraft become more efficient as the type ages, but an MD-80 is an MD-80 and an Airbus 320 is an Airbus 320.

I'm not sure how to tell you that this is shortsighted... Even the handful or so active DL -88s that were delivered as -82s are said to be below par on performance with the rest of the fleet. This is because the composite panels developed for the -88 were not part of the conversion mod.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 42):
I haven't seen or heard this reported by any source I would consider remotely credible. Only, yes, fanboys (or, if you prefer, "Boeing partisans").

Added to the list, my friend. If the TA passes the A320's position will become more and more divergent. Has nothing to do with juvenile pro-Boeing or anti-Airbus bias.

I guess we'll see how many DL fleet experts will be "0 or 3ers."   
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seabosdca
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RE: Delta's Plans For Ex NW Narrowbodies

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:13 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 48):
I speculate that DL won't fly an orphan fleet of 27 A320s for a decade plus

The fleet will not be an orphan. For all practical purposes it will be common with a fleet of 58 A319s. 85 aircraft is way more than enough to make a fleet economical to operate, even if the airline has other fleets at a similar capacity level.

It's expensive to buy 27 (or 85) new airplanes. For an airline operated along Delta's model, it really doesn't make sense to do it before you have to, particularly when you're replacing other fleets at the same time.

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