stlgph
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Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:23 pm

Now only $36 million!


Courtesy - Bloomberg News


"Prices for Boeing (BA) Co. 747-400s, the most popular wide-body plane, are tumbling as carriers rush to replace what were once their flagship aircraft with newer and more fuel-efficient models.

Ten-year-old passenger 747-400s are worth a record low $36 million, about 10 percent less than similar aged planes last year, according to Ascend Worldwide Ltd., amid high fuel costs and a cargo slump that has damped interest in converting aircraft into freighters. Forty-eight of the 404 humpbacked passenger 747-400s worldwide have also been placed in storage, according to the London-based aviation consultancy, as the once “Queen of the Skies” is shunned for 777s and Airbus SAS A380s."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-fuel-costs-end-23-year-reign.html
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:40 pm

My early 2012 valuation consensus for a 2002 delivery 747-400 averaged $44 million, so if that is the new average, the drop is closer to 20% than 10%. That being said, the outlook at the time was super-dismal, so... However, that $36 million figure might be for an example in need of a D-Check or such.
 
n471wn
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:42 pm

This article seems to ignore that crude prices are coming down--not nearly as high as they were-----the 400 (except for the D) is a very efficient a/c with good loads and crude less than $90
 
anstar
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:03 pm

I believe Virgin Atlantic got a fantastic deal on the renewal of their 747 leases that enabled the refits for next to nothing.
 
B757Forever
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:06 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 3):
I believe Virgin Atlantic got a fantastic deal on the renewal of their 747 leases that enabled the refits for next to nothing.

The same holds true for DL.
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LAXintl
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:08 pm

Still not much a bargain.

Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:19 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000.

Not even that - $300,000 will get you a 1981 vintage MD-81 or a 1983 vintage MD-82.

I love the MD-82's trend analysis: "The MD82 is available in numbers and the manufacturers of soda cans are grateful for the metal that is now becoming available."   
 
roseflyer
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:22 pm

It doesn’t make sense at first thought, but I think a big reason why the 747-8 is not selling well is high fuel prices. The 747-8F is not selling that well because 747-400 converted freighters are cheap. With relatively low time 747s on the used market (50,000 hr 747s are widely available), the market rate for 747-400s is really low. That results in cheap freighters and it makes it hard to justify a 747-8F at new prices based on fuel burn and payload increases. Airlines rushing to replace 747-400s with A380s and 77Ws has killed the 747-8F.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
flyingcat
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:22 pm

The people of Family Airlines. Avatar Airlines, Battleship Airlines and now Avengers Air are taking this all into consideration.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:17 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000

I could sell my family's house and my cousin's house and buy an MD-80 easily    The real challange of course is maintenance. Is it worth it?
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bennett123
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:22 pm

No, the real challenge is staying alive once they find out  .
 
jetblueguy22
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:24 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
Still not much a bargain.

Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000

Thats it? Man I hope they take discover so I can get my cash back to pay for fuel .
I'm surprised the 747 is so cheap. I understand they aren't as efficient but you would think with the 777 being so tough to get on the second hand market that these would sell like hot cakes. Big jets, good range, seems like a deal to me for the right price.
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Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:25 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 11):
No, the real challenge is staying alive once they find out .

   most my family is aging anyway and we just had 2 aunts die in the last year, and we've been hard pressed to find a use for the money  

In all seriousness, though:
Would a 30mil 744 be worth it in the long run? Would spending more for a 748 and saving a buttload on maintenance costs be a better option, or what?
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:30 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
In all seriousness, though:
Would a 30mil 744 be worth it in the long run? Would spending more for a 748 and saving a buttload on maintenance costs be a better option, or what?

Depends on how much time remains before its next heavy check as well as checking out the maintenance records etc. A new 748 will run you many times more than that amount. It will burn less fuel and is new but the up front acquisition cost is huge.

DL in contrast is picking up used a/c and renewing leases at bargain rates. They decided that the low acquisition /retention costs is worth it when you factor in fuel and maint.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:33 pm

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 14):
DL in contrast is picking up used a/c and renewing leases at bargain rates. They decided that the low acquisition /retention costs is worth it when you factor in fuel and maint.

Hmmmmm the way you put it, I think that you're implying that DL may want these 744s   
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:44 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 15):
Hmmmmm the way you put it, I think that you're implying that DL may want these 744s  

LoL

Given their current fleet plan, I doubt it but they do love a bargain. I wouldn't mind seeing more 744's in DL livery!
 
axelesgg
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:52 pm

I bet Iran wants them!
Fly Draganair
 
aircanadaa330
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:12 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 3):
I believe Virgin Atlantic got a fantastic deal on the renewal of their 747 leases that enabled the refits for next to nothing.

kinda off topic....but do leasing companies publish current leasing rates?
Cheers;
 
cedarjet
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:19 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 2):
This article seems to ignore that crude prices are coming down

Really? A barrel of oil is actually going to return to $35? Huge new reserves found? China and India - neither of whom have any oil - are going to stop moving towards living like Americans, and cancel their orders for 000s of jetliners, and close their car factories, and return to their pre-millenial agrarian peasant lives? Or, there's been a tiny and statistically-meaningless drop that will last two weeks before the price of a barrel of crude resumes it's immutable march towards $200 / barrel and (way) beyond?
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:32 pm

Couldn't FedEx use a couple for very busy routes? They had their eye set on A380s and still have not ruled out ordering some in the future. Why not some 744s?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
kkephart13
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:42 pm

PeopleExpress can get the 747's and hop the Atlantic from PHF... Thats a money maker right there...   
EVERYTHING i type on here, is the opinion of ME and not of any airline/company.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:44 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 20):
Couldn't FedEx use a couple for very busy routes? They had their eye set on A380s and still have not ruled out ordering some in the future. Why not some 744s?

FedEx is relatively committed to the 767 and 777s. UPS is the one picking up 747-400s as they have used freighters and some of the last new build 747-400s.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:28 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
Would a 30mil 744 be worth it in the long run? Would spending more for a 748 and saving a buttload on maintenance costs be a better option, or what?

Depends on usage, I suppose. Low-use operations such as VIP (oil barons and the like) might find these prices tempting. Low-usage charter operators like WO might also be interested. And maybe they can be pressed in to service for the Hajj?
-Doc Lightning-

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n471wn
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 19):
Really? A barrel of oil is actually going to return to $35? Huge new reserves found? China and India - neither of whom have any oil - are going to stop moving towards living like Americans, and cancel their orders for 000s of jetliners, and close their car factories, and return to their pre-millenial agrarian peasant lives? Or, there's been a tiny and statistically-meaningless drop that will last two weeks before the price of a barrel of crude resumes it's immutable march towards $200 / barrel and (way) beyond?

I did not say it was going back to $35 but more and more experts are seeing the price continue to moderate and my point was that this could be for a number of years and makes the 400 more desirable----when Romney is elected watch the drilling increase (thank goodness)
 
FI642
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 12:23 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 25):
Depends on usage, I suppose. Low-use operations such as VIP (oil barons and the like) might find these prices tempting. Low-usage charter operators like WO might also be interested. And maybe they can be pressed in to service for the Hajj?

World can barely operate with what it has now. The block hours for an MD-11 are too high, and they are too big for most customers. 744's have even higher operating costs. They learned that witth the 744F's.
737MAX, Cool Planes for the Worlds Coolest Airline.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:19 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
What would a A340-600 go for these days?

About $43 million for a 2003 delivery, though the trend analysis was as weak as for the 747-400 (the A340-600 is a fair bit more fuel efficient, but there are less frames and no conversion opportunity).
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:51 am

Remember World recently offloaded one of their 744Fs to Evergreen. With the number of the planes in storage at the moment I highly doubt they are in the market for more planes and are more likely struggling for their livelihood at the moment.
 
mtyfreak
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:12 am

I'll take 2 with with fries please!!
Only here for the beer...
 
juantrippe82
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:01 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 25):

Wishful thinking. The US has nowhere near the amount of oil to make any difference in the markets.
Don't worry, I'm never wrong.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:55 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 23):
when Romney is elected watch the drilling increase (thank goodness)

I don't want to take this off-track, but under Obama, drilling has increased massively in the U.S., far more than it has under any president in history. By comparison, it declined under W. There is no evidence that domestic production affects prices. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_1...-us-drilling-didnt-drop-gas-price/

To return to the topic, the 744 burns more fuel per ASM than a new 77W. However, a new 77W has a bunch of expensive lease payments that a $32M plane doesn't have. With the price of fuel high (and remember, prices count world-wide, not just in the U.S., since most 744's fly international routes), a 744 will be most useful if it is operating in a high-density configuration with relatively low daily utilization. 77W operating costs are low by comparison, while ownership costs are high. By contrast, 774 operation costs are high by comparison, but ownership costs are low. An operation like WO might fly a frame only every few days, so this model makes sense. This is why they are the only remaining US airline to operate the MD-11.
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AADC10
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:49 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 2):
the 400 (except for the D) is a very efficient a/c with good loads and crude less than $90

Efficient compared to what? It has the triple whammy compared to the 777 of being less efficient in per seat fuel costs, higher trip costs, and less comfortable seating. The belly cargo volume is not as good either, although the 744 can carry more weight. The 744 is efficient compared to the 742 but there are better aircraft around now. The only advantages of the 744 are cargo lift and low purchase prices.

I keep seeing references to the efficiency of the 744 (and the 748i for that matter) but it does not compare well in most situations to the 777, A380 or even the A330. There are certain configurations and missions where the 744 might have a small edge over the 777 or A380 but there others where the 744 gets left in the dust. The same thing is said about the 748i but if it was so efficient compared to anything else, why have there been so few orders? The 744 was a terrific aircraft in its day, particularly when more routes could not be accomplished with ETOPS but with business softening, even lower fuel prices will not revive it..
 
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AA777223
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:12 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 29):
I don't want to take this off-track, but under Obama, drilling has increased massively in the U.S., far more than it has under any president in history. By comparison, it declined under W. There is no evidence that domestic production affects prices. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_1...rice/

As someone who has worked for (and still works for) two of the largest offshore drilling companies on earth, I can assure that NO, drilling has NOT increased in the last few years. Despite whatever slanted journalism one may encounter, in US waters, drilling has drastically decreased, make no mistake. Especially when you consider the post-Macondo moratorium, there is no way drilling could have increased in the last four years.

I'm not making a statement as to whether or not that is a good thing. I am just saying what has happened.

[Edited 2012-06-14 07:16:15]
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sunking737
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:39 pm

Do you think Allegiant would give any the once over for International flights??   
Just an MSPAVGEEK
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:52 pm

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 31):
As someone who has worked for (and still works for) two of the largest offshore drilling companies on earth, I can assure that NO, drilling has NOT increased in the last few years.
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/201...r-drilling-drop-gas-prices-103271/

Just look at the graphs. Don't read the text. The numbers have sources. Go check them.
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nycdave
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:27 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 23):
I did not say it was going back to $35 but more and more experts are seeing the price continue to moderate and my point was that this could be for a number of years and makes the 400 more desirable----when Romney is elected watch the drilling increase (thank goodness)

Not to go too off-topic, but that's a pretty strange note to end on, given that drilling increased more in 4 years of Obama than in 8 years with a former attempted Texas oilman...
 
vin2basketball
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:48 pm

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 18):
Really? A barrel of oil is actually going to return to $35? Huge new reserves found? China and India - neither of whom have any oil - are going to stop moving towards living like Americans, and cancel their orders for 000s of jetliners, and close their car factories, and return to their pre-millenial agrarian peasant lives? Or, there's been a tiny and statistically-meaningless drop that will last two weeks before the price of a barrel of crude resumes it's immutable march towards $200 / barrel and (way) beyond?

Actually huge new reserves in the forms of tight oil, and oil shale.

Introducing the green river formation; between 1.5 and 2.4 trillion recoverabe barrels; so yes, large new reserves http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/...-supply-of-oil-in-green-river.html

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 33):
Just look at the graphs. Don't read the text. The numbers have sources. Go check them.

Doc Lightning; two things

1) This is on private land(s), drilling on public land( the part that Obama admin. controls, has fallen more than 20% off of its 2009 peak.
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/...y-us-federal-offshore-acreage.html - He's kept a lot of land that could be opened up to development, off limits.

2) Second, the US can affect price changes as it grows from a current production level of 6ish million barrels a day, to the 10-12 million bbl/day level claimed by 2025.

"According to the old script, United States oil production was too marginal to affect world oil prices. But the gap today between demand and available supply on the world oil market is narrow. The additional oil Saudi Arabia is putting into the market will help replace Iranian exports as they are increasingly squeezed out of the market by sanctions that start later this month. But if America’s increase of 1.6 million barrels per day since 2008 had not occurred, then the world oil market would be even tighter. We would be looking at much higher prices — and voters would be even angrier. "

"“There are new players and drivers in the world,” said Ruben Etcheverry, chief executive of Gas and Oil of Neuquen, a state-owned energy firm that is positioning itself to develop oil and gas fields here in Patagonia. “There is a new geopolitical shift, and those countries that never provided oil and gas can now do so. For the United States, there is a glimmer of the possibility of self-sufficiency.”

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/01/...s-new-age-of-energy-abundance.html

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/chart-of-day-peak-what.html

""The United States has become the fastest-growing oil and gas producer in the world, and it is likely to remain so for the rest of this decade and into the 2020s. Add to this output the steadily growing Canadian production and a likely reversal of Mexico's recent production decline, and theoretically total oil production from the three countries could rise by 11.2 million barrels per day by 2020, or to 26.6 million barrels per day from around 15.4 million per day at the end of 2011."

" On top of this, the U.S. and Canada could see natural gas output rise by 22 billion cubic feet per day by 2020, with 14 billion of it coming from the Lower 48 states, four billion from Alaska and four billion from Canada. That's an increase of one-third, catapulting this continent into the ranks of significant exporters of liquefied natural gas."
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
About $43 million for a 2003 delivery, though the trend analysis was as weak as for the 747-400 (the A340-600 is a fair bit more fuel efficient, but there are less frames and no conversion opportunity).

Swiss might be able to do great deals   If they go for used ones.
 
N202PA
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000.

Not even that - $300,000 will get you a 1981 vintage MD-81 or a 1983 vintage MD-82.

At those prices, it seems like it'd be wise for any new airline entering the market to pick up a dozen or so of these and standardize their fleet around them. If you can get up to 170 seats in 1-class config. on an -81 or -82, it might make sense for a leisure charter or scheduled airline versus the other available options (ie, 737, A320).
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:38 pm

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 31):
As someone who has worked for (and still works for) two of the largest offshore drilling companies on earth, I can assure that NO, drilling has NOT increased in the last few years. Despite whatever slanted journalism one may encounter, in US waters, drilling has drastically decreased, make no mistake.

They're talking total drilling, not just offshore. The shale boom grossly covered up the dropoff in offshore drilling.

Tom.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:27 pm

Quoting sunking737 (Reply 32):
Do you think Allegiant would give any the once over for International flights??

That would be the day    Or what about the new PEOPLExpress ?

Quoting N202PA (Reply 37):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
Can get a MD-80 for mere $500,000.

Not even that - $300,000 will get you a 1981 vintage MD-81 or a 1983 vintage MD-82.

At those prices, it seems like it'd be wise for any new airline entering the market to pick up a dozen or so of these and standardize their fleet around them. If you can get up to 170 seats in 1-class config. on an -81 or -82, it might make sense for a leisure charter or scheduled airline versus the other available options (ie, 737, A320).

Maybe these smaller planes could go better for a startup or something, IMO. I don't think it would be good for a mainliner to pick them up.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 35):

For the sake of the thread, can we get back on topic  
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travelhound
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RE: Boeing 747's ... Now At Bargain Prices!

Fri Jun 15, 2012 2:16 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 9):
I could sell my family's house and my cousin's house and buy an MD-80 easily The real challange of course is maintenance. Is it worth it?

It becomes a little expensive when you have to do a C check every 3000 sleeps