olddominion727
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:34 pm

If it's profitable, would we see more orders from LH, AF, BA or CX? Could we even see the first orders from a US carrier?
 
nomadd22
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:42 pm

I don't think that would be much of a factor. They know about what it costs to operate the plane. The real trick is predicting how well any particular route will utilize that plane. 420 people wanting to fly from Berlin to Hong Kong each day doesn't mean anything for any other route. Just like being 70% full doesn't mean another route would be a bad bet.
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olddominion727
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:54 pm

Quoting nomadd22 (Reply 1):

I think that could be true. I only ask the question because if you're talking 420 pax vs 550 pax (A380) is it really worth ordering a new type of equipment as LH did? I don't know the #'s but it would seem if they have a 346 that's full, wouldn't it be a little more economically sound to put the A380 on the route at a 75%-80% capacity (letting the route mature) rather than order an entirely new aircraft?
 
jfk777
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:06 am

Lufthansa decided they have the need for 3 levels of Intercontinental planes, large, extra large and double extra large: the A346, the 748 and the A380.
 
QANTAS747-438
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:09 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
If it's profitable,

It is WAYYYYY too soon to see if the 748 is profitable for LH or not.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
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gdg9
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Could Other Airlines Order the 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:18 am

Seems a bit early to start inquiring, LH just recently put the 748 into revenue service. (Is it only FRA IAD right now?)

That said, LH seems quite smart on how they deploy aircraft and I'm sure the 748 will perform fine over time.
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roseflyer
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:38 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
Could we even see the first orders from a US carrier?

The US airlines have such fragmented international networks because they are multi-hub airlines that they aren't very good customers for VLAs. DL, UA and AA are the biggest airlines in the world, but they also have few routes that have enough capacity to justify large airplanes.

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):


If it's profitable, would we see more orders from LH, AF, BA or CX?

I think it is absolutely possible that more airlines will order it. There are a lot of 747s flying out there and not all of the airlines have indicated they want to go up in capacity to the A380 to replace their entire fleets. Some have committed to going down in capacity, others going up. Boeing seems convinced they will sell more. I think it is absolutely possible, but I wouldn't want to speculate on who would order it.
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AA737-823
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:48 am

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 4):
It is WAYYYYY too soon to see if the 748 is profitable for LH or not.

No it isn't.
LH isn't dumb; they've been flying for decades. They know the revenue they receive on a given route, they know the costs of the airplane they're flying, and voila- they know whether it's going to be profitable or not. In this case, even with new equipment, there aren't very many blanks to fill in at all. Fuel burn has been known for years, since the very earliest flight tests. Engine maintenance costs are a bit grayer, but also come backed by guarantees from the manufacturer (in this case, the ultra-reliable GE). Airframe maintenance costs are easily calculated by an entire fleet of bean counters in cubicles.

In short, Lufthansa knew whether that airplane (and the 380, and the 346) would be "profitable" or not before they ordered it.
To say that they didn't know is to say that LH management is no more knowledgeable than a poster in a forum on airliners.net.
 
columba
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:25 am

Boeing just recently said that they are expecting new orders this year. Farnborough Air Show is coming up and we may see a surprise there  
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Unflug
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:36 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
In short, Lufthansa knew whether that airplane (and the 380, and the 346) would be "profitable" or not before they ordered it.
To say that they didn't know is to say that LH management is no more knowledgeable than a poster in a forum on airliners.net.

Spot on. It would be shocking if they didn't do the math before investing into a certain type. Of course there are unknowns, like future traffic and competition, but these usually can't be attributed to a certain type.
 
sweair
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:56 am

The 748i might make sense if you constantly can fill a 77W sized plane but need more payload for cargo. LH puts 386 seats in it, that would leave a fair bit of MSP for cargo. They found that the undercarriage could take more weight and upped the MTOW a fair bit and are getting 2-4000 lb out of the frame and engine PIPs. The mature 748i will be a good aircraft for LH at least. The proposed 777-9X will carry about the same number of passengers but have lower MTOW and lower MSP.
 
PHX787
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:24 am

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 4):
It is WAYYYYY too soon to see if the 748 is profitable for LH or not.

I do think that if it is profitable, we would see a whole bunch of orders pour in.
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Burkhard
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:44 am

There are about 1000 B744 to be replaced the next10-15 years. I know airlines do not replace aircraft 1:1, but the routes that now are flown by 747s will remain.

Airlines have three options:

Grow significantly and get the best CASM: A380
Shrink down but still improve CASM: B77W
Grow a bit with a CASM in between: B748I

The argument of extra fleet costs counts up to 15 or 20 aircraft only. If you have 20 each, the profit that you have from using the right equipment for each application and season exceeds the extra costs.
 
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:49 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 11):
I do think that if it is profitable, we would see a whole bunch of orders pour in.

Given the current economic situation, I disagree. I'd give it six months before a major 748 order is placed and two years before a US 748 order is placed. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my own hand. If I'm right, you eat yours! Deal?
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AirbusA6
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:29 am

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 12):
Grow significantly and get the best CASM: A380
Shrink down but still improve CASM: B77W
Grow a bit with a CASM in between: B748I

It's a question of whether it's better to buy 3 'right sized' aircraft, and accept the incompatability of having 3 completely different planes, or abuse a smaller number of types.

LH will certainly have a unique fleet of 4 holers though, I can't see anyone else having the A346, 748, A380 combination!
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:11 pm

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 14):
LH will certainly have a unique fleet of 4 holers though, I can't see anyone else having the A346, 748, A380 combination!

They also still have a large fleet of B-744s and A-343s, too.

[Edited 2012-06-18 07:12:16]
 
akelley728
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:07 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 8):
Boeing just recently said that they are expecting new orders this year. Farnborough Air Show is coming up and we may see a surprise there

  

Yes, we have a very active thread on this right now....

Boeing To Firm 30 747-8I MoUs "soon" (by Chiad Jun 4 2012 in Civil Aviation)
 
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glideslope
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:10 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 8):
Boeing just recently said that they are expecting new orders this year. Farnborough Air Show is coming up and we may see a surprise there  

That would be a VERY safe bet.   
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anfromme
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 11):
I do think that if it is profitable, we would see a whole bunch of orders pour in.

If it were that simple, there should have been a bunch more orders for the A340-600 as well - LH seem to like that plane and obviously operate it profitably.

Quoting columba (Reply 8):
Boeing just recently said that they are expecting new orders this year. Farnborough Air Show is coming up and we may see a surprise there
Quoting glideslope (Reply 17):
That would be a VERY safe bet.

As far as I recall, they just said that they expect to firm up 30 MoUs for the 747-8i "soon".
Boeing To Firm 30 747-8I MoUs "soon" (by Chiad Jun 4 2012 in Civil Aviation)
Regarding new orders, Lund was - again - very careful with her wording, as she only said that they're in active sales campaigns for the pax variant and would like to announce some additional orders this summer.
So personally, I wouldn't put any money on that "very safe bet" of Boeing announcing a surprise new customer at or just before/after Farnborough.

Statements from Boeing on the 747-8 have been very positive yet non-commital for the last few years - stressing again and again how they're actively discussing with airlines, getting great feedback and being "very confident" of securing new orders. (Here's a good example from 2007.)Very little has actually come of it so far, so I for one won't hold my breath for more orders around Farnborough, nor place my money on a bet to that effect.
Note: I am specifically referring to new orders, i.e. not the firming up of the previously mentioned MoUs. I do see a good chance of Boeing firming up at least one or two of the latter in time for Farnborough.


Best chances I'd see at the moment for additional 747-8i sales would be TK and CX. CI has been mentioned in the rumour mill a few times at this point as well - out of the three, I'd actually see Boeing's best chances with CI. No, I can't give a particular reason for that - just a hunch, so I'm wide open to be proven wrong  
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anstar
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 12):
There are about 1000 B744 to be replaced the next10-15 years. I know airlines do not replace aircraft 1:1, but the routes that now are flown by 747s will remain.

But it is quite unlikely they will replaced them with liek for liek aircraft. Most will opt for fuel efficient twins.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 12):
Airlines have three options:

Grow significantly and get the best CASM: A380
Shrink down but still improve CASM: B77W
Grow a bit with a CASM in between: B748I

And given oil is only going to go up - it doesnt make sense to go for the 748i.... 77W/A350 will prob win the day.
 
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anfromme
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 19):
But it is quite unlikely they will replaced them with liek for liek aircraft. Most will opt for fuel efficient twins.

It's not like the 747-8i or the A380 are fuel-guzzlers, exactly. If you fill them, they're more fuel-efficient per seat than any twin. But therein lies the crux: You need to be able to fill them. An additional crux for the 747-8i is that the 777-300ER - and even more so the projected 777-900X - is very close to the 747-8i in terms of capacity, with lower capital and trip costs.
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sweair
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:54 pm

The 748i beats the 777 on payload+passenger mix and has a much shorter backlog. LHs 380 seats would be super cramped on a 777, on the 748 it´s quite comfy and leaves a fair amount of cargo payload to haul along.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Could Other Airlines Order The 748?

Tue Jun 19, 2012 11:30 am

Quoting anfromme (Reply 20):
An additional crux for the 747-8i is that the 777-300ER - and even more so the projected 777-900X - is very close to the 747-8i in terms of capacity, with lower capital and trip costs.

There have been numerous articles and comments saying that the biggest problem Boeing has selling the 748i is the 77W. CX is on record saying that for their operations the 77W beats the economics of the 748i, and since they are operating the 748F they have a very good basis for comparison. And with the 777X on the horizon the comparison will only get worse. While I see a bright future for the 748F, I see big clouds on the horizon for the 748i. It is likely to get an order for 3 from the Air Force, and LH may well convert their options. But LH does not fly the 77W. Any airline that operates the 77W is unlikely, IMHO, to order the 748i; but interestingly KE has done so. It will be very interesting to see how they like the 748i and whether they order any more. They also operate both the 748F and the 777F (the only airline to do so.)
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