aztrainer
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Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:55 am

I did a search and did not find this in the site, but if I missed it delete this thread.

I know there has been speculation about growth at IWA/AZA, but it seems now they have a plan for 60 gates and $1.4 Billion in improvements. In the article it states; "The booming Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport has unveiled a $1.4 billion plan for a new passenger terminal that could open as soon as 5 years from now and eventually expand to 60 gates."

I could see the new terminal in 5 years as long a G4 keeps going the way it is and they could get another airlines to expand to it other than Spirit. My questions is what airlines would be eying IWA/AZA. It has been a consensus on the boards that US and WN would not do it because of their hold on PHX, but what about United or other bigger carriers?

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/loc...8-b974-11e1-95e4-001a4bcf887a.html
 
PHX787
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:00 am

Quoting aztrainer (Thread starter):
I could see the new terminal in 5 years as long a G4 keeps going the way it is and they could get another airlines to expand to it other than Spirit. My questions is what airlines would be eying IWA/AZA. It has been a consensus on the boards that US and WN would not do it because of their hold on PHX, but what about United or other bigger carriers?

I haven't been to AZA in a while so I don't know the progress, I thought the new terminal was supposed to be under construction by now.

AZA has no where to go but up. It's in a somewhat-ok location (but then again, all of that stuff over there is new and it's expanding south towards Queen Creek and East past Apache Junction) but I've had buddies of mine fly into AZA on NK and they said that they wish they had more options with G4 or NK or other airlines (like F9 adding a flight there along with their flight to PHX) having presence at AZA.

I see UA adding a flight to ORD and EWR concurrently with their flights here, I see DL adding a flight to ATL and JFK, I see AA adding a flight to MIA, and I see some airline (maybe NK or someone else) adding a flight to LAX. If PHX expands internationally (remember the previous thread I posted about BA going daily to PHX) I could see more and more domestic routes added to AZA from other carriers, in particular, F9, NK, etc. I do not see WN adding anything big in particular (maybe to DAL or HOU or MDW, that's it.) due to their presence at PHX, but I agree, AZA has no where to go but up.
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aztrainer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:09 am

I agree with the growth as I have lived in Chandler for the past 12 years. I remember with IWA/AZA was Williams AFB. I would lover more options from Williams as it would be a 10 minute driver vs. the 35-45 to PHX. I could see G4 going to IWA/AZA. I do think for IWA/AZA to make a big go at it they should try to get some WN flight. That would be a huge draw especially with flight to the LA area.

Now the biggest problem will be the NIMBY.
 
point2point
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:17 am

First off.... why is this IWA/AZA? Can't they make up their minds?

Next, I think that F9 from DEN would be a good candidate for expansion, but that would require F9 to open a new base. Now with NK serving both DEN and IWA/AZA.... this could be easily done now, as the pax count between Denver and Phoenix is so high with so many flights each way.... that I'm sure some of those pax would find it more convenient to book at IWA/AZA. At least enough to fill a plane or two each way.....

And that's my    folks

 
 
PHX787
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:26 am

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 2):
Now the biggest problem will be the NIMBY.

Well, the only thing nearby so far is ASUPolytech, and some businesses. I don't think a lot of people would care so much about

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
First off.... why is this IWA/AZA? Can't they make up their minds?

IWA is the FAA assignment (I think the IATA gave IWA to an airport in Russia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix-Mesa_Gateway_Airport
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point2point
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:35 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
IWA is the FAA assignment (I think the IATA gave IWA to an airport in Russia)

So they can't get the FAA to change this to AZA? Or is it not so easy?


 
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:45 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
I see UA adding a flight to ORD and EWR concurrently with their flights here, I see DL adding a flight to ATL and JFK, I see AA adding a flight to MIA, and I see some airline (maybe NK or someone else) adding a flight to LAX. If PHX expands internationally (remember the previous thread I posted about BA going daily to PHX) I could see more and more domestic routes added to AZA from other carriers, in particular, F9, NK, etc. I do not see WN adding anything big in particular (maybe to DAL or HOU or MDW, that's it.) due to their presence at PHX, but I agree, AZA has no where to go but up.

It's going to take an act of congress to get any of the legacies to pick up IWA. I never say never with F9. Outside of that, G4 growth and potential NK growth are all I'd bank on at AZA.
 
dlramp4life
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 2:51 am

Here is the master plan that the airport posted on its facebook today:
http://www.phxmesagateway.org/Docume...y%202030%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

Quoting aztrainer (Thread starter):
I could see the new terminal in 5 years as long a G4 keeps going the way it is

I 110% agree with you, G4 is growing and I am expecting to see a 757 route sometime later this year or next. Also after this airport remodel all gate space is maxed out....

Quoting aztrainer (Thread starter):
they could get another airlines to expand to it other than Spirit. My questions is what airlines would be eying IWA/AZA.

That is the challenge. Why should a legacy carrier or a low cost carrier enter an airport market with ultra low cost carriers? I think you would see OO representing UA or DL or AE at AZA before any mainline metal touches down there.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
F9 adding a flight there along with their flight to PHX

When I was working out at AZA I was hoping F9 would start up at AZA but that was only a rumor along with B6,WN,and HA... I would not count on F9 at gateway but then again they do have new business plan so it might be come true.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
I see UA adding a flight to ORD and EWR concurrently with their flights here, I see DL adding a flight to ATL and JFK, I see AA adding a flight to MIA,

I would see UA going to DEN and LAX and DL going to SLC and LAX all on RJs.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
NK or someone else) adding a flight to LAX

I could see this happening

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
pax count between Denver and Phoenix is so high with so many flights each way

On WN but UA has reduced PHX-DEN to an RJ or A319...F9 ERJ or A319

Great news for AZA! If OO sets up an operation out there, I may just have to go back.
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aztrainer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:59 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):

Well, the only thing nearby so far is ASUPolytech, and some businesses. I don't think a lot of people would care so much about

You have the people in Gilbert to the west and Mesa to the north and Queen Creek to the east. I grew up around Scottsdale airport and would hear people moving into our neighborhood complaining about the planes and noise for Scottsdale. They are everywhere and it does not matter that the airport was there first, they will complain.

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 7):
When I was working out at AZA I was hoping F9 would start up at AZA but that was only a rumor along with B6,WN,and HA... I would not count on F9 at gateway but then again they do have new business plan so it might be come true.

HA would be interesting as they are not really connecting with anyone and thus could handle the move from PHX to IWA. I also could see WN start up a operation at IWA IF they give them a huge fiscal break to start to operations.
 
alggag
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:16 pm

I absolutely do not see WN opening IWA, at least not before (re)opening IAH or COS. Well, unless they cut some sort of deal that they simply can't refuse.
 
PHX787
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting alggag (Reply 9):
Well, unless they cut some sort of deal that they simply can't refuse.

I can see Chandler or Mesa doing SOMETHING in that regard, that is, if they wanted to.

Interesting note: When the airport was known as Williams AFB, the IATA code was CHD (chandler), which is now used for Chandler Municipal about 10 miles away
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alggag
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 12:07 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 10):
I can see Chandler or Mesa doing SOMETHING in that regard, that is, if they wanted to.

It would have to be a really, really juicy deal though to get WN to bite in my opinion.

I could see DL bite, though. Of UA/DL/AA/US they seem to be the most inclined to serve the secondary airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, OAK, LGB, SWF, HPN) even if it's with just a few token frequencies.
 
aztrainer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:02 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 10):
I can see Chandler or Mesa doing SOMETHING in that regard, that is, if they wanted to.

That I would really doubt. They are not set-up for commercial aircraft at those airports. I could see an east valley amalgamation coming together to get more growth at IWA/AZA

Quoting alggag (Reply 11):
I could see DL bite, though. Of UA/DL/AA/US they seem to be the most inclined to serve the secondary airports (MDW, HOU, DAL, OAK, LGB, SWF, HPN) even if it's with just a few token frequencies.

DL would be interesting as they have a mild size presences at PHX in T3.

Quoting alggag (Reply 9):
I absolutely do not see WN opening IWA, at least not before (re)opening IAH or COS. Well, unless they cut some sort of deal that they simply can't refuse.

That was what I was thinking in my statement. I could see the airport authority doing something to move some WN traffic from PHX to IWA/AZA. Also remember that Williams Gateway is operated by both the city of Mesa and city of Phoenix. With that said, I do not know how much the City of Phoenix would do to move traffic away from PHX. They could also offer some deal to US to bring some traffic to Gateway.

Has a study ever been conducted that shows traffic patterns from cities like Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Apache Junction, Florence and places further east and what their top destinations?
 
point2point
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:14 am

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 12):
Has a study ever been conducted that shows traffic patterns from cities like Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Apache Junction, Florence and places further east and what their top destinations?

I will admit right off that I am pretty unfamiliar with the Phoenix area, and that I don't know if any studies per se have been done in this respect. However, I do believe that Phoenix seems both large enough population-wise, and then spread out enough area-wise, to begin gathering such info if they haven't done so already. Phoenix seems to be right in that place where they could be a bona-fide two airport city. Right now, they have PHX doing the bulk of the work for the region, and AZA more a boutique airport. Sometime soon, if both growth rates and sprawl rates continue, this region will be past a point where two "real" commercial airports will be needed, even if PHX still has a lot of capacity to offer. With continued sprawl, just the driving time alone for a lot of people will make AZA relevant to more commercial service, and it probably best at this time for the city and regional planners to have a path forward with regards to their air service.

Just my    here
 
aztrainer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:59 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
this region will be past a point where two "real" commercial airports will be needed, even if PHX still has a lot of capacity to offer. With continued sprawl, just the driving time alone for a lot of people will make AZA relevant to more commercial service, and it probably best at this time for the city and regional planners to have a path forward with regards to their air service.

This is true as regards to the sprawl of the greater Phoenix area.

To give you an idea on size. Maricopa County (Where MOST of the greater Phoenix area is located) is the same size some smaller states back east. IWA/AZA is also located on the border of Maricopa and Pinal counties.
 
dlramp4life
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:36 am

Quoting alggag (Reply 11):
I could see DL bite, though. Of UA/DL/AA/US they seem to be the most inclined to serve the secondary airports

I think AE would start up at AZA before DL would...
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1337Delta764
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:31 pm

This seems like a very ambitious project. Could the Phoenix area really support two full-service airports? Those living in Mesa, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Chandler, Apache Junction, San Tan Valley, and Florence perhaps would like a closer option than PHX.

Note that the PHF in Newport News, Virginia has mainline service on DL, and remember the Hampton Roads area is smaller than the Phoenix area.
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aztrainer
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 16):
Note that the PHF in Newport News, Virginia has mainline service on DL, and remember the Hampton Roads area is smaller than the Phoenix area.

But would that not have a lot to do with the Navy and the shipyards?
 
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:43 pm

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 17):
But would that not have a lot to do with the Navy and the shipyards?

But Hampton Roads is served by two airports (ORF and PHF), and DL has mainline flights to ATL from both airports, and ORF is the more convenient option for the Navy bases.

I would think a daily mainline DL AZA-ATL flight on a 738 may not be such a bad idea, especially if it is timed well enough to make an international connection.

[Edited 2012-06-21 09:49:19]
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desertjets
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:49 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 16):
This seems like a very ambitious project. Could the Phoenix area really support two full-service airports? Those living in Mesa, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Chandler, Apache Junction, San Tan Valley, and Florence perhaps would like a closer option than PHX.

I say no. I really think the massive growth that Phoenix, and the sunbelt in general, has seen since WWII has already peaked and we aren't going to be seeing double digit population growth every decade for much longer. I feel very strongly that the housing market will take a good long time to heal in metro Phoenix and newly developed areas in the far southeast valley are going to take a good time to recover to the point where they can continue to fill-in what was left after the housing bubble burst.

Now that said I do think it is wise to begin the infrastructure improvements at Williams for the terminal project on the northeast end of the property and to break ground on an appropriately sized terminal that can be scaled up as needed. I think the folks overseeing Williams need to look no further than ONT and remind themselves not to be overly ambitious. And at the same time pay attention to the fact that the west terminal project at Sky Harbor is more or less on hiatus for the next decade or so. If there isn't demand to build a new terminal at the main airport, why spend 1 billion+ to build one at Williams?
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EricR
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 6:07 pm

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 19):
I feel very strongly that the housing market will take a good long time to heal in metro Phoenix and newly developed areas in the far southeast valley are going to take a good time to recover to the point where they can continue to fill-in what was left after the housing bubble burst.


Interesting viewpoint. On the other hand, home prices are extremely affordable and interest rates at all time lows. The combination creates the perfect foundation to spur growth in the housing market.

The housing market in Phoenix is not as bad as people make it out to be. The key word is that is was bad, but things have rebounded. The supply of available homes on the market has decreased considerably and this resulted in an increase in existing home prices of 25% year over year.

This is not to say that we are out of the woods yet, but the impact is not as bad as people believe. I personally know 2 people who have sold their homes in over the past 2 months (one in May and the other in June). One person's house was on the market for one week before it sold. The other individual received 5 offers and his home sold for more than list price. I am not sure how much above list price he received for his home, but this is an indication that things are looking much better.

Below are two articles discussing this exact issues from the last couple days, but this trend has been in place over the past 6 months in metro Phoenix.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/us...ability-shrinks.html?src=me&ref=us

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...arks-bidding-wars-for-workers.html
 
desertjets
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RE: Growth At IWA/AZA

Thu Jun 21, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 20):
Interesting viewpoint. On the other hand, home prices are extremely affordable and interest rates at all time lows. The combination creates the perfect foundation to spur growth in the housing market.

The housing market in Phoenix is not as bad as people make it out to be. The key word is that is was bad, but things have rebounded. The supply of available homes on the market has decreased considerably and this resulted in an increase in existing home prices of 25% year over year.

True it was bad. But there is a long uphill climb to fix the battle and sounds like things are improving. However I still remain pessimistic on on it, I feel like they need to see several more years of good news before you can say metro Phoenix is out of the mess. I won't feel mildly optimistic until I see home values return to where they were before real estate values began snowballing out of control (roughly to 03/04 values).


Metros that do support more than one major airport do so for several reasons. Some are sheering out of population and physical size (i.e. New York and LA). Some are due to the fact of several smaller metros essentially growing together into one larger metro area (i.e. DC/Baltimore or South Florida). Others due to a newer airport supplanting and older one as the primary airport (i.e. DC, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston)..... None of which describe Phoenix.

Throw in the continued consolidation among the majors and secondary airports are going to face a problem. Why serve a place like Williams if consolidation at Sky Harbor frees up space for a new entrant? Again I think it is wise to make the investment in the infrastructure and build an appropriately sized and costed terminal that allows for expansion than to overbuild and be unable to fill it.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia