G500
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Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:39 pm

I noticed Virgin Atlantic likes holiday destinations, and California is one of the prefered U.S destinations for English tourists. I wonder if they're going to look at San Diego when they receive their 787s?

BA already flies into SAN, and there are like 11 daily flies between LHR-LAX. That might dissuade Virgin

opinions

[Edited 2012-06-23 13:45:06]
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:45 pm

Sure SAN-LHR can work, but as you point out, BA already flies the route. I'm not sure is SAN could support two LHR flights yet. It's similar to asking if a PDX-LHR or PDX-CDG flight would work, considering that they are smaller markets. Probably, but maybe not enough to support a second flight.

SAN is probably best served by only one Europe flight at this point until if and when the market grows enough for someone like VS or DL or AF to come in with another non-stop.
 
Gingersnap
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:49 pm

VS need to ensure their onboard product is up to scratch before they try and compete on thinner routes.
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SANFan
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 pm

VS has reportedly shown interest in SAN in the past. Their best time to jump was probably right after Zoom failed (in the fall of 2008) and the market was wide open, yet BA was still waiting on the ATI to be in place before they would come back to town. Lack of suitable equipment probably was the reason Virgin did nothing but, IMHO, that would have been their best shot at the market. Had they jumped then, would BA have still started the route last year? I don't know.

If they were to try it now, VS would not be eligible for any of the intercontinental incentives that SAN offers -- no flight from anywhere in Europe would -- since those are locked up by BA for, I believe, one more year. Once the incentive is again available, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see LH (or someone else on the Continent) start up service to SAN. I do beleive there is enough traffic from SAN, including connections, to support another flight to a large hub in Europe. (The more 787s that are out there in operation, the more likely we are to see more intercontinental service...)

Two cx to London though? Honestly, that WOULD surprise me.

bb
 
SANMAN66
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:35 pm

I suppose it would be possible if VS did SAN-LGW, instead of LHR (already occupied by BA).
They wouldn't be competing with each other, or maybe to MAN (like they do from LAS).

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
If they were to try it now, VS would not be eligible for any of the intercontinental incentives that SAN offers -- no flight from anywhere in Europe would -- since those are locked up by BA for, I believe, one more year. Once the incentive is again available, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see LH (or someone else on the Continent) start up service to SAN. I do beleive there is enough traffic from SAN, including connections, to support another flight to a large hub in Europe.

I guess that's another factor to think about. Apparently, VS is scheduled to get 787-9s in 2014, so
I suppose that would be a timeframe to look at if they are thinking about SAN, (the incentives should also
be open again during that time too.)

[Edited 2012-06-23 16:35:56]
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redrooster3
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 2:57 am

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
California is one of the prefered U.S destinations for English tourists.

I work at a local drug store close to the airport, and the beaches. And I can tell you, every day has been busy for us, since the weather is ideal here, we get a lot of people that go to the beach. And we get people from ALL over Europe, Canada, and Australia/New Zealand. Not to mention, every Friday, we have military graduation just one mile from us.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 1):
I'm not sure is SAN could support two LHR flights yet.

From looking at the CAA, we see summer times literally full. February being the worst month. Thats where SAN could see possible 787 flights during the winter with BA. Or VS being seasonal during the winter months. But during the summer times, I can see VS and BA operating somewhat economically.

June = 85.7%
July = 89.0%
August = 95.0%
September = 92.0%
October = 90.0%
November = 73.6%
December = 79.5%
January = 76.5%
February = 67.0%
March = 91.6%
April = 91.0%

Source

SAN seems to be turning into a One World hub, BA, AA, and JL will show OW presence. How about QF/Jetstar with a 787.   (Almost) Both OW members, (Jetstar is a possible candidate for OW membership)

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
If they were to try it now, VS would not be eligible for any of the intercontinental incentives that SAN offers -- no flight from anywhere in Europe would -- since those are locked up by BA for, I believe, one more year.

By then, the green project should be up and running and can support more international planes.
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WarmNuts
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:37 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 1):
Sure SAN-LHR can work, but as you point out, BA already flies the route. I'm not sure is SAN could support two LHR flights yet. It's similar to asking if a PDX-LHR or PDX-CDG flight would work, considering that they are smaller markets. Probably, but maybe not enough to support a second flight.


The difference between us and PDX is we draw over 20 million tourists a year. While the lion's share of those drive down from LA, LA and San Diego are in so many ways worlds apart - we are in and of ourselves a major tourist destination. Maybe I'm something of a hopeless romantic, but I like to think that JAL is simply the first - and not the last - international carrier to fly the 787 to SAN.  
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:27 am

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
I wonder if they're going to look at San Diego when they receive their 787s?

I suspect we'll see more 787s at SAN. The question is who and when. LHR slots are too precious for a 2nd flight to SAN. I could see FRA, CDG, or AMS thought.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 1):
It's similar to asking if a PDX-LHR or PDX-CDG flight would work, considering that they are smaller markets. Probably, but maybe not enough to support a second flight

{checkmakrk

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 5):
August = 95.0%
September = 92.0%
October = 90.0%

Thank you for the numbers. But a 3 month a year service is not going to be able to compete versus year round.

Does anyone have the O&D numbers?


Lightsaber
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slinky09
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:28 am

I believe VS has other priorities than SAN, and those are dependent on slots let's not forget. VS is missing out when it comes to Brazil, and China is high on the list. I'd discount talk of Hawaii direct on the 787, it'll be a long, low yield route, South America and Asia offer the right potential.

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 5):
we get people from ALL over Europe, Canada, and Australia/New Zealand

San Diego is a wonderful place, but let's not forget that many visitors arrive into LAX and do the loop.

Quoting gingersnap (Reply 2):
VS need to ensure their onboard product is up to scratch before they try and compete on thinner routes.

That seems a bit snipey, VS's on board product is among the best in J class, and it's PE is about the best there is (up there with ANZ).
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:04 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 8):
San Diego is a wonderful place, but let's not forget that many visitors arrive into LAX and do the loop.


I used to transit regularly between the US and India and when my return routing brought me back TPAC, that transfer through LAX - just to make that last 109nm jump from LAX to SAN - more often than not semed like the longest part of the journey (and that's saying something when the journey began at HAL, or BOM). Given the choice of arriving at LAX combined with the sheer joy of driving south on the 405 for several hours or breezing through customs at SAN, the above load numbers for BA's daily demonstrate there is no shortage of pax willing to forego the former for the latter. In the end, I guess if a carrier can make money on the route, they wil fly it.
 
mikey72
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:15 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 8):
That seems a bit snipey, VS's on board product is among the best in J class, and it's PE is about the best there is (up there with ANZ).

The hard product is good but if you believe the airline review websites it's the crew (not all) that let them down.
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laca773
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:22 am

I think the bottom line will be the a/c with the right fit for a market like SAN. FRA would be a great transfer point in addition to LHR. However, the LH fleet doesn't currently have an a/c to fly without marked operational restrictions nonstop. This definitely would be a perfect route for the 787. AB will be getting them, but don't know if this is a good fit for their network, other than being heavily leisure, albeit, is changing a bit with the introduction into OW.
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:43 am

Quoting laca773 (Reply 11):


Using BA as an example, they have four daily flights between LHR-LAX, yet they are drawing good traffic on their one daily into SAN. And in December, JL - who operates half as many NRT-LAX daily flights as BA - inaugurates their NRT-SAN route with the 787. Considering AF/KL have four daily flights serving CDG-LAX and AMS-LAX respectively, might they consider a CDG-SAN or AMS-SAN route between them with one of the 25 787s they'll be receiving? Similarly, QF (3 daily flights to LAX) and NZ (4 AKL-LAX flights daily) might find it a profitable route once their own 787s enter service.
 
abrown532
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:05 am

I am not sure they will look at this option, as they already fly to LAX and with their codeshare with Virgin America I am not sure this route would need serious thought, UNLESS, BA are doing very well on that route and VA want to muscle into some of that traffic, in which case, the 787 would be pretty good on that route!
 
mikey72
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:40 am

Quoting abrown532 (Reply 13):
UNLESS, BA are doing very well on that route and VA want to muscle into some of that traffic, in which case, the 787 would be pretty good on that route!

Revert back to type you mean ?

  
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SANFan
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:49 am

Quoting laca773 (Reply 11):
FRA would be a great transfer point in addition to LHR. However, the LH fleet doesn't currently have an a/c to fly without marked operational restrictions nonstop. This definitely would be a perfect route for the 787. AB will be getting them, but don't know if this is a good fit for their network, other than being heavily leisure, albeit, is changing a bit with the introduction into OW.

I expect that a large hub operation with lots of opportunities for connections would be needed to make another SAN-Europe flight profitable, such as LH at FRA, KL at AMS, or AF at CDG. Would TXL fit the bill? AB does seem to have a pretty solid network of flights which would offer some connections but as far as I can tell, it's not as large as the other 3 cx mentioned.

And I don't know if AB being in OW ultimately helps or hinders the possibilities of serving SAN...

bb
 
G500
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:59 am

Quoting laca773 (Reply 11):
I think the bottom line will be the a/c with the right fit for a market like SAN

I think that is the bottom line. I doubt VS could fill up an A340 or A330 on this route, specially with BA already on it.. If Mr. Branson ever gives SAN a go, it'd be with the 787
 
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RWA380
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RE: Could San Diego-London For Work Virgin With A 787?

Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:23 am

Quoting WarmNuts (Reply 6):
The difference between us and PDX is we draw over 20 million tourists a year. While the lion's share of those drive down from LA, LA and San Diego are in so many ways worlds apart - we are in and of ourselves a major tourist destination. Maybe I'm something of a hopeless romantic, but I like to think that JAL is simply the first - and not the last - international carrier to fly the 787 to SAN

PDX will not draw those tourist flights like SAN can, but I'd love to see VS beat anyone else to PDX with a 787, but as someone stated earlier, there are plenty of routes VS would tackle before PDX and to a lesser extent SAN. I doubt JL's will be the only 787 that SAN will see for sure. I hope we land one here in PDX sometime too.
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