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TWA772LR
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UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:21 am

Since the recent threads are about how UA is expanding and shrinking, I'll jump on the bandwagon. I remember a Houston Chronicle article saying Continental was going to have a huge build up in Guam, and it seems it hasn't happened. What else could be done? I know the first thing would be mainland traffic to at least SFO and/or LAX, then what? More Australia? I'm actually surprised that UA doesn't serve SYD, MEL or BNE from GUM. I can also see AKL, Christchurch, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Taipei, Saigon and more small Pacific islands as possibilities. Out of all the hubs, I think GUM has the most potential to expand.
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PHX787
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:41 am

On one of the other threads, I posted that there was a flight from Guam to ORD but I don't know what happened to that.

I honestly think a continental US flight is a must for Guam in general. I don't think there is any already.
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avi8
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:45 am

How many flights does UA have from Guam? Aren't most flights weekly flights? Do people actually connect there? I really have no idea how that hub works in terms of flights, aircraft, and Destinations.
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AA737-823
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:52 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):

On one of the other threads, I posted that there was a flight from Guam to ORD but I don't know what happened to that.

...and everyone on that thread pointed out that there ISN'T such a flight- there is a GUM-HNL flight that then turns to ORD.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 2):
Aren't most flights weekly flights?

I think the Island Hopper is twice a week, having been thrice a week a few years ago.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):

There is the ORD flight that goes through HNL, then there is UA 1/2 that go IAH-HNL-GUM then GUM-HNL-IAH repectively. There is a direct flight, but not a nonstop.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 2):

There must be connections since it is tied into the mainland with the flights I mentioned so there must be at least something there.
And for my next miracle, I'm gonna turn water into funk!
 
codc10
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:21 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 4):
then there is UA 1/2 that go IAH-HNL-GUM then GUM-HNL-IAH

UA1/2 no longer continues to GUM. That flight ended with the replacement of s-CO 767-424ERs ex-GUM with s-UA 777-222s.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:29 am

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 5):

It's the end of an era!  
And for my next miracle, I'm gonna turn water into funk!
 
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:37 am

Weekly operations
CNS 2 73G
FUK 7 73G
HIJ 2 73G
HNL 7 772
ROR 5 378, 1 73G
MNL 3 73G, 6 738
NGO 5 738, 9 73G
OKA 2 73G
OKJ 2 73G
KIX 7 73G, 7 738
ROP 3 ATR
SPN 36 ATR
CTS 2 73G
SDJ 2 73G
NRT 14 772, 7 738
TKK 3 738, 1 73G
YAP 1 738, 1 73G
TOTAL 39 73G, 34 738, 21 772= 94/WEEK, 13+/DAY AVERAGE

ISLAND HOPPER
PNI 3 738 1 STOPS, 1 73G 1 STOP
KSA 2/WEEK 2 STOPS
KWA 2/WEEK 3 STOPS, 1/WEEK 2 STOP
MAJ 2/WEEK 4 STOPS, 1/WEEK 3 STOP
HNL 2/WEEK 5 STOPS, 1/WEEK 4 STOP
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eta unknown
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 5:28 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
I'm actually surprised that UA doesn't serve SYD, MEL or BNE from GUM. I can also see AKL, Christchurch, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Taipei, Saigon and more small Pacific islands as possibilities. Out of all the hubs, I think GUM has the most potential to expand

Look at the population of GUM- it's actually way over-serviced.
 
dxBrian
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 6:27 am

GUM is a unique hub as most traffic originates inbound to the island. The Japan flights are mostly filled with Japanese passengers on vacation packages to the nearest part of the US from Japan. The Island Hopper works as there is no competition, and not enought traffic for a competitor to even start oeprating the routes. Also there is a very large population of Philippines descent on Guam.

The problem with serving other destinations in Australia besides CNS is the flight time/distance. Most CNS customers are connecting through GUM in both directions. The GUM-CNS great circle distance is 1815 NM, GUM-BNE is 2489 NM so another 600 NM each way, with SYD and MEL even further. You wouldn't be able to connect to other flightss without most of a day layover in either or both directions.
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:03 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):

On one of the other threads, I posted that there was a flight from Guam to ORD but I don't know what happened to that.

...and everyone on that thread pointed out that there ISN'T such a flight- there is a GUM-HNL flight that then turns to ORD.

well not quite .. PMCOs flight to Guam operated as a 764 IAH-HNL-GUM-HNL-IAH. When PMUA started shifting equipment last fall they put on a UA 772 ORD-HNL-GUM-HNL-ORD .. I've also seen SFO-HNL-GUM-HNL .. and HNL-GUM-HNL-ORD .. they move the schedule around a lot. I'm in Honolulu - we have offices on Guam and outside Chicago - so our people are on the flight in both directions regularly. So yes, there was such a flight, and at certain times there is still such a flight .. the legs are still with a PMUA 772.

To me the odd thing is traditionally - flight numbers run odd from east to west, and north to south - and even west to east, south to north. Not so much any more .. the flight to Guam (westbound) is UA300 .. the flight back to HNL is UA200. Same thing happens in other markets in/out of Honolulu.
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:32 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
I know the first thing would be mainland traffic to at least SFO and/or LAX, then what? More Australia? I'm actually surprised that UA doesn't serve SYD, MEL or BNE from GUM. I can also see AKL, Christchurch, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Taipei, Saigon and more small Pacific islands as possibilities. Out of all the hubs, I think GUM has the most potential to expand

I agree 100% that UA should offer a two cabin 777 service from SFO at first, Mainland origin traffic could then use GUM as a simple connecting point for SE Asia, but as you can go directly to Australia and New Zealand from both SFO and LAX, I doubt too many people would use GUM to connect onwards to Australia, unless it's the Northern part. If that initial mainland service showed merit to the idea of a Trans Pacific GUM hub, then maybe upgauging to a 3 cabin 777 from SFO and adding an LAX flight might help increase connecting traffic through GUM enough to warrant the new destinations and flights. Only thing else they could potentially capitalize on is the Japan to Australia traffic by ways of secondary cities with one connection via GUM, right now you can take UA CTS-GUM-CNS, maybe next PER?
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klwright69
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:59 am

In the 90's, CO flew GUM-SYD on the DC10. I knew a GUM based DC10 pilot who flew it.

It didn't last needless to say.
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:10 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
TOTAL 39 73G, 34 738, 21 772= 94/WEEK, 13+/DAY AVERAGE

Isn't HKG on that list too?
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:07 pm

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 13):
Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
TOTAL 39 73G, 34 738, 21 772= 94/WEEK, 13+/DAY AVERAGE

Isn't HKG on that list too?

Sorry, I jumped over that one.
HKG 2/week 738
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Rdh3e
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:35 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
It's the end of an era!

It was a give and take. S-UA lost having UA1/2 being ORD-HNL which had been the case since dinosaurs walked the earth  
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:19 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
Weekly operations
CNS 2 73G

How are the loads on these flight, do we know? Which such a low frequency I wonder. What's the traffic between Australia and Guam? Connecting to mainland USA or Hawaii?

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
MNL 3 73G, 6 738

This doesn't surprise me, in fact I would have thought UA might have put a widebody on the route by now?

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 11):
I agree 100% that UA should offer a two cabin 777 service from SFO at first, Mainland origin traffic could then use GUM as a simple connecting point for SE Asia,

I always thought a two cabin 777 from the West Coast to MNL via GUM would have done very well with loads, but I'd gather UA knows better than any of us do that the yields would be rock bottom so probably not worth it.
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tommy767
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:22 pm

Would they ever consider GUM-SFO/LAX? I feel like these are a bit overdue.
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 17):
Would they ever consider GUM-SFO/LAX? I feel like these are a bit overdue.

I agree, It would be born out of military contracts. I'm sure its on the radar but probably waaaaaay down on it.
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PHX787
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:39 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
HNL 7 772
Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 7):
NRT 14 772, 7 738

Ok so a once-a-day stateside flight and 3x a day flight to NRT....are there really that many Japanese who fly to Guam?
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:40 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 19):
Ok so a once-a-day stateside flight and 3x a day flight to NRT....are there really that many Japanese who fly to Guam?

Yes...is an understatement.
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 4):
There is the ORD flight that goes through HNL, then there is UA 1/2 that go IAH-HNL-GUM then GUM-HNL-IAH repectively. There is a direct flight, but not a nonstop.

I've flown that route twice, and actually on a DCA-IAH-HNL-GUM tag. The last time I was window seated on a CO 764, and the seat in front had an electrical box that took up half the leg room for me. 16+ hours on IAH-HNL-GUM with room enough for one leg to extend. Not a pleasant experience!
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:51 pm

Quoting sq_ek_freak (Reply 16):
How are the loads on these flight, do we know? Which such a low frequency I wonder. What's the traffic between Australia and Guam? Connecting to mainland USA or Hawaii?

The Guam hub caters to Japanese travelers, the beyond connections to places like Cairns are for Japanese tourists.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 17):
Would they ever consider GUM-SFO/LAX? I feel like these are a bit overdue.
Quoting drerx7 (Reply 18):

I agree, It would be born out of military contracts. I'm sure its on the radar but probably waaaaaay down on it.

Guam is set to see huge expansion in it's military population over the next ten years as the US directs more of it's assets towards the Pacific. They are moving approximately 8,000 Marines and their aircraft from Okinawa to Guam. Plus the Navy, Air Force and even Army will be increasing their presence on the island. When you factor in dependents and contractors the demand for air travel between the mainland US and Guam will likely see dramatic increases. A nonstop to LAX 3-4x a week might be in the offering, otherwise I can see HA or DL launching a HNL-GUM flight. NWA previously flew HNL-GUM.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 12):
In the 90's, CO flew GUM-SYD on the DC10. I knew a GUM based DC10 pilot who flew it.

There was also a GUM-BNE-SYD flight.
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strfyr51
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 3:04 pm

the connector is in HNL and we fly here directly from the Mainland USA Much of the passenger traffic is military and since Anderson AFB and the Former Naval Air Station at AGANA are there there's good reason to keep it that way. The continuation flights to NRT and MNL and further to HKG are for the workers who travel back and forth. which is the life blod orf that route and the Hub at GUM.
Since Continental Air Micronesia were around. Bypassing HNL wouldn't help the loads by any means . How many people are going to fly LAX / SFO 10-12 hrs direct GUM?? and How many More would fly 12-14 Hours Direct ORD/IAH to Gum?? especially when it getting JUST like Honolulu?
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting sq_ek_freak (Reply 16):
This doesn't surprise me, in fact I would have thought UA might have put a widebody on the route by now?

During the Christmas holidays, PMCO used to put the DC10 and the 76H on the nightly GUM-MNL-GUM flights.
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panamair
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 5:13 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 19):
Ok so a once-a-day stateside flight and 3x a day flight to NRT....are there really that many Japanese who fly to Guam?

You do the math.. . Besides UA's service, Delta is now flying (for the summer peak) 4x daily NRT-GUM (2 763ERs + 2 757s), 2x daily KIX-GUM (2 757s), and 1x NGO-GUM (757).

The Beach Markets (GUM, SPN, HNL) are doing very well right now, - UA has upgauged its 1x daily NRT-HNL from a 777 to a 744 for the summer peak, DL has upgauged KIX-HNL from an A333 to a 744, and now also runs 3x daliy NRT-HNL (2 744s and 1 763ER), daily 767 NGO-HNL (up from 5x weekly), and daily 767 FUK-HNL (up from 4x weekly).....
 
AADC10
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 5:43 pm

GUM will only expand if there is a big military contract. The Pacific islands are for the most part sparsely populated and poor. The economy in most of Asia is stagnating. UA already added more seats by switching HNL-GUM from a 764 (I think) to a 2-class 772. I suspect that the move was as much for cargo as it was for passengers.
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Tue Jul 03, 2012 7:41 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 19):
Ok so a once-a-day stateside flight and 3x a day flight to NRT....are there really that many Japanese who fly to Guam?

China Airlines, Eva Air, Japan Airlines, Jin Air, and Korean Air all operate to Guam as well....mainly carrying Japanese tourists.I have a few CoMic buddies and all say the place is overun with japanese tourists in season...like we are up here with motorhomes!

atct
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bigb
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:39 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 17):
Would they ever consider GUM-SFO/LAX? I feel like these are a bit overdue.

It wouldn't work because the demand to SFO/LAX alone would be low. Most of the pax on the GUM-HNL leg terminates in HNL with few staying on the flight to ORD, and the remainder of the few running to catch the IAH, EWR, SFO, DEN, LAX flights. The flights are well timed too unless your bags come up last.
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Carpethead
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:55 am

For those on GUM expansion, where is UA going to obtain widebody capacity?
This is an airline that added just handful of widebodies over the last decade.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 26):
The Pacific islands are for the most part sparsely populated and poor. The economy in most of Asia is stagnating.

Sparsely populated - yes, but whoa, you probably infuriated a whole lot of Pacific islanders with that statement.
The only economy in Asia that is stagnant is Japan.
Everybody else is anywhere between hyperdrive to strong growth.
 
PHX787
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:59 am

Quoting panamair (Reply 25):

Why is GUM so popular with Japanese?

Quoting carpethead (Reply 29):
The only economy in Asia that is stagnant is Japan.

Well I'm not so sure it's "stagnant," but given the earthquake yeah things have been slower than usual (and things have been slow for somewhat 20 years now.) But I still think that there are a lot of things about Japan that aren't necessarily "stagnant"
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SANAV8R
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 5:18 am

Aren't issues with the layout of the airport? I flew through Guam to Cairns a few years ago via NRT & HNL and there was such an odd feeling with the barricades and that has hindered some connections. I mean it's not like its an awful facility, but I know they have difficulties with transiting.



Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
Why is GUM so popular with Japanese?

It's relatively close. Maybe 3-4 hrs on a plane and plus many more secondary Japanese cities are served with UA, meaning there's no having to connect in major cities like Osaka or Tokyo. A direct flight to a warm island. It's not Hawaii or West Coast USA, but there is plenty of tourist infastructure: resorts, beaches, shopping, golf, etc.

[Edited 2012-07-03 22:19:54]
 
jgarrido
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 9:46 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 8):
Look at the population of GUM- it's actually way over-serviced.

Population isn't everything. As of March of this year Guam was the 6th most used port of entry by international vistors in the United States with 317,000 vistors. That's just below Newark and above San Francisco. http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/m-2012-I-001/index.html (download the "top ports" spreadsheet).

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 26):
The economy in most of Asia is stagnating.

Regardless vistor arrivals are up 11% http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2012207040311

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
Why is GUM so popular with Japanese?

It's close, there's only 1 hour difference in the time so no jetlag and it's cheap. Weekend packages start at under $300(airfare and hotel), and with the yen killing the dollar it's even cheaper for the tourist.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 10:02 am

Quoting jgarrido (Reply 32):
Population isn't everything. As of March of this year Guam was the 6th most used port of entry by international vistors in the United States with 317,000 vistors. That's just below Newark and above San Francisco. http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/m-2012-I-001/index.html (download the "top ports" spreadsheet).

Those are some very strange looking stats. Blaine, Washington ("where?", I hear you ask ) gets more international arrivals than Dallas or Detroit and yet it doesn't even seem to have an airport as far as I can tell.... and the stats theoretically don't include arrivals from Canada which is the only place I can imagine arrivals at Blaine actually coming from. It makes me wonder how reliable the rest of the table is.
 
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:39 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
Why is GUM so popular with Japanese?

I thought you had lots of Japanese friends in Japan? You should ask them 

also:

Quoting SANAV8R (Reply 31):
It's relatively close. Maybe 3-4 hrs on a plane and plus many more secondary Japanese cities are served with UA, meaning there's no having to connect in major cities like Osaka or Tokyo. A direct flight to a warm island. It's not Hawaii or West Coast USA, but there is plenty of tourist infastructure: resorts, beaches, shopping, golf, etc.
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AirOne
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:13 pm

Hi All-

I just transited through GUM two months ago. Flew in via the NRT leg and outbound via the HNL leg - both operated by 777s. The flights were both well over 90% loads, with most people connecting to islands. I was connecting to ROR and it seems about half my ROR flight was on the inbound NRT leg.

Also, keep in mind, GUM is having a huge military build up as they US moves bases from Japan to Guam. When I overnighted there, every hotel along the main beach strip (Hilton, Marriott, ect) was jammed with either military personnel or Japanese tourists.

AirOne
 
christao17
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:22 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
Well I'm not so sure it's "stagnant," but given the earthquake yeah things have been slower than usual (and things have been slow for somewhat 20 years now.)



With all due respect, I'm not sure you have your facts straight about the economy of Asia. Looking at this World Bank data, which is consistent with other reliable sources, East Asian and Pacific GDP growth rate has been higher over the past two years than any other region in the world (9.7% in 2010, 8.3% in 2011) and is expected to remain above 7.5% through 2014. In fact, East Asian and Pacific GDP growth has been above 6.3% annually since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

To the point of this post, though, I'd doubt that there is much more profitable expansion for UA to do in GUM. Its efficiency for connections is limited and most South Pacific and SE Asian destinations can be served more effectively with either long-and-thin nonstops to the continental US or routed through NRT, HNL, or Star Alliance partners.
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drerx7
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 1:34 pm

Quoting BigB (Reply 28):
It wouldn't work because the demand to SFO/LAX alone would be low.

It would have to be subsidized by a military contract...and even then I think we may see a 744 replace the 777 at that point.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
jgarrido
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:08 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 33):

Even though Canadian vistors aren't counted it doesn't mean vistors from other counties who enter the US via Canada aren't. According to wikipeida: "Blaine is home to two main West Coast ports of entry between the United States and Canada.

Regardless, both sources I referenced showed Guam has averaged about 105,000 vistors every month for the period they covered. That's over 50% of the population in vistors per month. That's the point I was making.

New York City saw 51 millon visitors in 2011. That averages out to about 20% of the population per month. I know Guam and New York are pretty much as different communities as you can find from each other, but I thought that was an interesting perspective.
 
Viscount724
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 6:40 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 33):
Blaine, Washington ("where?", I hear you ask ) gets more international arrivals than Dallas or Detroit and yet it doesn't even seem to have an airport as far as I can tell....

You've obviously never driven from YVR to the U.S. or vice versa. The two busiest highway border crossings (one for cars, one mainly for trucks) between British Columbia and the U.S. are at Blaine, about 40 km south of YVR. I believe Blaine is the 3rd busiest Canada-U.S. border crossing.
 
PHX787
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RE: UA GUM Expansion?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 1:46 pm

Quoting jgarrido (Reply 32):
It's close, there's only 1 hour difference in the time so no jetlag and it's cheap. Weekend packages start at under $300(airfare and hotel), and with the yen killing the dollar it's even cheaper for the tourist.
Quoting SANAV8R (Reply 31):
It's relatively close. Maybe 3-4 hrs on a plane and plus many more secondary Japanese cities are served with UA, meaning there's no having to connect in major cities like Osaka or Tokyo. A direct flight to a warm island. It's not Hawaii or West Coast USA, but there is plenty of tourist infastructure: resorts, beaches, shopping, golf, etc.

I see, that makes sense.
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