747400sp
Topic Author
Posts: 3846
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 7:27 pm

Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:27 pm

With LAX, supporting four A380's operators, and LAX is the third busiest airport in the nation,( beating the giant DFW, I love saying that) I wonder, could LAX be the the first US airport to accommodate the up coming A380 900?
Airbus recently said, that they plan on building the stretch A380 model by 2020, and LAX, JFK or even IAD, are likely to be the first US airports, that will welcome the giant jet. I feel that with it easy access to Asia and the South Pacific, LAX could easy be the first airport here in the States, to have an A380 900, land on it's runways.
 
fraspotter
Posts: 1972
Joined: Sat May 08, 2004 8:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:31 pm

Well until we actually see what airlines order it (EK is most likely a lock at this point to convert some existing -800 orders to -900 when or if the -900 is ever offered) I would imagine that JFK would see an EK -900 before LAX would IMO...

[Edited 2012-07-04 09:37:19]
"Drunk drivers run stop signs. Stoners wait for them to turn green."
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5015
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:53 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:32 pm

Huh!

Do you know something about A389 we dont?

//Mike  
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15272
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:34 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
could LAX be the the first US airport to accommodate the up coming A380 900?

Sure. Why not. LAX and RDU.

Quoting solnabo (Reply 2):
Do you know something about A389 we dont?

   Is it even on offer yet privately? Given the slow sales of the 388 I'm not sure why Airbus would rush into another variant any time soon.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
cargolex
Posts: 1201
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 5:20 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:42 pm

I would say that eventually both JFK and LAX will see A380-900 services if and when the airplane materializes, but I'd put JFK ahead of LAX in terms of when services begin if only because JFK is the largest gateway in all of North America.

As others have said, it will depend on who orders it, but EK is almost certain to do so, and given that they are now looking at two A388 frequencies a day at JFK...

For LAX, a larger, heavier variant of the A380 might have a range issue for LAX ops for EK, EY, QR, and SQ. We don't know that, of course, since we don't have any spec. Given their relatively modest presence there now, I can't see TG or MH bringing any potential A380 service to LAX. That leaves new customers or AF/LH/KE/BA for LAX A389 services when /if these carriers get the A389.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4320
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting cargolex (Reply 4):
For LAX, a larger, heavier variant of the A380 might have a range issue for LAX ops for EK, EY, QR, and SQ. We don't know that, of course, since we don't have any spec. Given their relatively modest presence there now, I can't see TG or MH bringing any potential A380 service to LAX. That leaves new customers or AF/LH/KE/BA for LAX A389 services when /if these carriers get the A389.

You seem to have forgotten the first A380 operator to LAX!
There is speculation (I stress it is speculation!) around that some of the deferred QF A380s may be delivered as among the first A389s. In which case LAX is a pretty safe bet for early service.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 12:22 am

Given the financial climate of the airline industry and with airlines partnering up, a stretch of an already ultra high capacity aircraft seems ..... like a stretch (pun intended). Like

a fellow poster said EK would be a strong candidate and possibly AF, KE, one or two more in Asia none in the America's and that's all I can think of. What would be the capacity of such a frame?


But back to the topic, I would assume a foreign ramp would be the first, CDG or LHR.
 
Cipango
Posts: 1447
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 12:59 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
Sure. Why not. LAX and RDU.

Why RDU? Of all airports in the US..
Let's fly! Unless it's on a CRJ 200, then I'll stay down here.
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 1976
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:50 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 1:47 am

I'd say JFK is a better bet with Emirates. They've stated that they prefer the -900 over the -800 from the beginning. With their deep pockets, you can bet they'd get the first one.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
johns624
Posts: 1239
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 2:24 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
I would assume a foreign ramp would be the first, CDG or LHR.

The OP specifically said US airport.
 
FLALEFTY
Posts: 372
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 2:48 am

Please educate me. Did I miss the launch of the A389? Is it actually in development? Who has ordered it? (I 'm guessing EK has an option clause for the type).

Don't get me wrong, I welcome its arrival, but have I missed some major order announcement?
 
southwest737500
Posts: 611
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:49 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 5:08 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):

Why is everyone talking about RDU. nothing is special about,
Next flight: TUL-ATL-CLT CRJ900 and MD88
 
ghifty
Posts: 885
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 5:14 am

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 11):

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):

Why is everyone talking about RDU. nothing is special about,

Sarcasm detected.. about as much chance of an A389 at LAX or RDU.. seeing as to how no A389 exists.
Fly Delta Jets
 
747400sp
Topic Author
Posts: 3846
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 7:27 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 5:50 am

Airbus did say recently, that they plan on launching a stretch viraent of the A380.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 2794
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 5:58 am

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 13):
Airbus did say recently, that they plan on launching a stretch viraent of the A380.

And Boeing first proposed a stretch 747 in 1996.

Now, in 2012, we have the first commercial flights.

[Edited 2012-07-04 22:59:07]
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
ghifty
Posts: 885
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 6:10 am

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 13):

Airbus did say recently, that they plan on launching a stretch viraent of the A380.

It's still vapors. 787-10..
Fly Delta Jets
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 6:33 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 14):
And Boeing first proposed a stretch 747 in 1996.

Now, in 2012, we have the first commercial flights.

Shouldn't be too long now to first flight then, seeing as the A380-900 was first proposed in 2000  

Seriously, I don't think you'll see it launched until c. 2015, by which time hopefully Airbus will have FINALLY worked out how to build them in decent numbers....

Rgds
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:07 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 16):

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 14):
And Boeing first proposed a stretch 747 in 1996.

Now, in 2012, we have the first commercial flights.

Shouldn't be too long now to first flight then, seeing as the A380-900 was first proposed in 2000

Seriously, I don't think you'll see it launched until c. 2015, by which time hopefully Airbus will have FINALLY worked out how to build them in decent numbers....

Rgds

Interesting topic actually.

I was in Dubai last year and noted on their stands they have A389 markings for the nosewheel stops. Not reading anything into it of course but seems like a funny thing to do for a plane that according to many on here will never and should never be launched.

As has been noted many times – the A388 wing is optimized for a far higher weight than the A388 will ever get to. The aerodynamic twists and tweaks that Airbus have been writing into her suggests that far from being the finished article, there is more to come from this wing as well. People have talked about a new wingtip device as well.

What the debate has centred around is how big of a stretch would the A389 fuse be? The existing A388 is 72m LOA. Some say the A389 when she arrives will be 79m, 80m, 85m, or even 88m LOA. The 88m length appears a hard limit because of the impact anything longer would have on being able to park the thing at airports. The 747-8i is about 76m, for comparison’s sake. My gut feeling is that 88m is something that will happen later in the airframe’s life – we’re probably talking A3810 sort of territory, and not for at least 20 years. My guess would be a 10m stretch across two fuse plugs in front and behind the wing of about 10m, so 82m LOA all in.

Many have also suggested that a stretch is the “low hanging fruit” on the A380 development cycle, and they are correct – stretching it by 10m presents very few structural challenges comparatively speaking as the landing gear, internal structures, hydraulics, electrics, exits, certification and of course the wings were optimized and designed to make such a stretch possible very simply. It appears in large measure to simply be a case of building the plug and inserting it, although of course that’s very simplistic and it isn’t quite a simple as that. Even so, the issue is not “Will Airbus stretch the A388?” but “When will they stretch the A388 and for what reason?”

The answer is that they could do it tomorrow but there are a few reasons why it is smarter to wait. The main one of course is the production issues Airbus are still having. That precludes anything right now in my mind. Another one is the still-unstable global financial markets. Another one is that airlines are not keen to see their current (very expensive and not yet amortised) A380s replaced as the CASM kings on the routes they fly them on, and so inevitably the sales of the A388 as is would be impacted by the bigger bird. Much of the target group of customers that could use such a massive plane (and there are very few airlines in the world who could now or even in the next few years) already have A380s and financing is hard to get these days – and harder to get past the shareholders. Secondly stretching the A388 without re-engining to take advantage of the huge leaps in large turbofan technology that we’ve seen as a result of the 787 and A350 programmes would obsolete the big bird before she even flies, technologically speaking. It would still have unbeatable CASM, but range would suffer, and if airlines are going to spend another $250m a pop replacing an already head-and-shoulders-over-everything-else A380 with another one, they are going to want more bang for their buck.

I’ve always viewed the A388 today as an “A380-800A” – it is the 767-200 A model in developmental terms. “today’s” A389 would be the 767-300A – Airbus are (in my view) going to be sidestepping this and going from 767-200A straight to 767-200ER and 767-300ER – say, 2016 offering for a 2020 EIS.

This means re-engining the A380 with engines a further leap ahead from the GENX and Trent 1000XWBs we’re seeing now, perhaps with the same cores with further modernisations or perhaps with more radical changes, and in this sort of timeframe there is at least some scope to imagine that we may see a third, GTF offering as well possibly come to the table. It also means lightening of the structure in certain parts where possible, and also incorporating the tweaks and twists in the evolution of the wing. I’m absolutely sure there are people at Airbus studying ways of improving cargo efficiency/capacity as well.

With all this development work done, what you’d basically have – in very simplistic terms – is a baseline A380 with new engines, various avionics tweaks etc with or without the fuselage plugs, in much the same way the 767ER programme did. This means a second generation A380 available in two sizes – the A380-800R and the A380-900R.

A388R - would be able to do routes like DXB-LAX, MEX-DXB, DXB-AKL, LAX-HKG, SIN-EWR at full payload year round – the current tweaks on the existing A388 will eventually get it to this sort of range without re-engining but the A388R mods will allow the airframe to do the same mission but at a significantly reduced fuel burn.

A389R - would ideally have range roughly approaching what today’s A380 has now, (probably below the ULH pairs mentioned above though), ideally with roughly comparable fuel-burn but with a much higher payload.

Notwithstanding the reasons outlined above, Airbus are unlikely to jump into developing the A380 in any meaningful way, until it is sure it can achieve these hugely challenging targets. It is unlikely to be able to do this until the A350 is well in airline service so this gives us more of a hint into a potential timeline here. They will know where they are with the A350 variants by 2016/17 so I expect the A388R and 89R to be offered with achievable performance/payload numbers around this sort of time, with an EIS around, as I stated earlier, 2020 sort of time. By that time the first SQ birds will be 13 years old – so approaching their retirement in SQ service for resale.

Nobody on this site is claiming that all airlines need A380s, and that anyone who doesn’t have one will not be able to compete. The VLA or ULA market is modestly sized, and although it will grow, it seems unlikely we’ll ever see the same number of A380s as we have the smaller twins. We may in fact never see more than 8 or 900 built ever. What the A380 is designed for is the specific city-pair market and the current A380 is almost unchallenged in this sector. We’ve discussed the A380 business case ad nauseum on here so I wont go into it here, but it will suffice to say that I believe judging the programme on current market condition is myopic – deliberately I suspect for some. The programme is a long-term thing, and so too must the view on the market it is supposed to serve be. We may not see its true potential fulfilled for another 15 years. But we will see it. There is massive scope for improvements though and once Airbus have sorted out the production issues that have plagued the programme they are free to really test the design. We have not seen anything like what the airframe is capable of now and in the future.

Just my 2 cents.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3794
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:23 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
We have not seen anything like what the airframe is capable of now and in the future

You are so right about that!  .

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
Just my 2 cents

Well, I would value your post with a lot more then just two cents.   Thanks for this extensive post which I totally agree with.  .
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:25 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
Just my 2 cents.

Looks like about 15 quids worth. Can't wait to see what specs airbus will announce.

Fred
Image
 
Horstroad
Posts: 353
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 8:19 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:29 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
I was in Dubai last year and noted on their stands they have A389 markings for the nosewheel stops.

These markings are also in LH´s hangars at FRA. I'm looking forward to seeing it fly someday. a stretched version would look a bit more elegant, I think.

 
spiritair97
Posts: 1191
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:28 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Thu Jul 05, 2012 2:14 pm

I highly doubt QF will order any a389s any time soon, if at all. Given their current state and the fact that they recently deferred their remaining a388 orders, I don't think they are in the market for a bigger, more expensive aircraft at the moment.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4320
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:11 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):
I highly doubt QF will order any a389s any time soon, if at all. Given their current state and the fact that they recently deferred their remaining a388 orders, I don't think they are in the market for a bigger, more expensive aircraft at the moment.

I agree, at the moment. However by 2018 when the A380s are now due they will (had better be!) a different airline and COULD possibly be an early A389 adopter.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
spiritair97
Posts: 1191
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:28 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:38 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 22):
Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):
I highly doubt QF will order any a389s any time soon, if at all. Given their current state and the fact that they recently deferred their remaining a388 orders, I don't think they are in the market for a bigger, more expensive aircraft at the moment.

I agree, at the moment. However by 2018 when the A380s are now due they will (had better be!) a different airline and COULD possibly be an early A389 adopter.

Gemuser


Probably at that point they will place an order.
 
2175301
Posts: 715
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 1:27 am

Should Airbus actually produce the A380-9; my guess goes to Oshkosh as the first airport. Appearing at the EAA convention clearly has as good as chance - and better than many other options.

Have a great day,
 
User avatar
ODwyerPW
Posts: 967
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:30 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:35 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 24):
Should Airbus actually produce the A380-9; my guess goes to Oshkosh as the first airport. Appearing at the EAA convention clearly has as good as chance - and better than many other options.

Have a great day,

Oshkosh B'Gosh, wouldn't that be somthing..

No doubt some airlines want it... but would they stop ordering the A388 because it's not available?

That is the question airbus needs to answer before they commit further development dollars.
learning never stops.
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:35 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 22):
Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):
I highly doubt QF will order any a389s any time soon, if at all. Given their current state and the fact that they recently deferred their remaining a388 orders, I don't think they are in the market for a bigger, more expensive aircraft at the moment.

I agree, at the moment. However by 2018 when the A380s are now due they will (had better be!) a different airline and COULD possibly be an early A389 adopter.

Gemuser

QF would be an early adopter for an A389R - no question. Anything that lowers CASM on their trunk long-haul routes is a no-brainer.

I'd love to see how DL plan to compete on LAX-SYD with a 77L if/when QF lump on the A389R. Cheerio!
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
johns624
Posts: 1239
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Fri Jul 06, 2012 5:34 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 26):
I'd love to see how DL plan to compete on LAX-SYD with a 77L if/when QF lump on the A389R. Cheerio!

Through their FF program and with Skyteam being weak in Oz/NZ. It's the only game in town in the US if you want Skyteam miles.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4963
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 1:21 am

Seeing as how airlines have been avoiding ordering new A388's in droves, and Airbus has more than plenty on its plate, and will for quite a few years yo come, I do not see it as a good use of resources to develop a new A380 variant. I know Astuteman disagrees with me on this, but if an airline wants the A389 but it is not available, what are they going to order? I don't think it will be the C-series. Seeing as the A380 program is a long way from a positive ROI, making another variant (whose only real competition comes from the A388) will only make the chance of a good financial return even more remote. But if Airbus really wants to build it, mere bookkeeping numbers will probably not stop them.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Josh32121
Posts: 236
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:02 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 2:38 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 26):
I'd love to see how DL plan to compete on LAX-SYD with a 77L if/when QF lump on the A389R. Cheerio!

  

DL would compete by offering seats on a modern aircraft at a competitive price--just like QF does today on its 388's.

From a passenger experience perspective, the A380 is hardly a product differentiator. What features or amenities does it have that other modern aircraft such as the 777 or an up-to-date 747 don't have other than more seats? The A380 shines in the airlines' accounting departments with its impressive CASM. A380:777LR is not Maybach:Tata Nano as you imply.
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 10:00 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 28):
But if Airbus really wants to build it, mere bookkeeping numbers will probably not stop them.

Do you know, I don't mind having a difference of opinion about the prospects of A380-900's cannibalising A380-800 sales - noyl time will tell.
But the persistent notion that Airbus will do A380 variants (and the original) just for the hell of it, business case or no, really gets up my nose, and will continue to do so.......

Suffice to say I disagree with your assertion.  

Rgds
 
dennys
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 11:19 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 10:49 am

Sorry but where did you see the Official future launching client of A389 ?
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4963
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 11:45 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
Suffice to say I disagree with your assertion.

Hey, that's the fun of this forum. I do not dispute with anyone that the A380 has a lot of potential; it can be stretched, the engines can be improved, and it can have its aerodynamics tweaked, and an excellent plane can be made even better. But until demand for it picks up or a competitor appears I just cannot see the business case for investing billions in another variant. It's not as if Airbus engineers are just sitting around twiddling their thumbs. The only other case would be if the 787, A350 or 777X start challenging its CASM; at that point something would need to be done; either re-engine or launch the A389-whichever would improve the CASM enough to stay at the top of the heap.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 3:06 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 32):
But until demand for it picks up or a competitor appears I just cannot see the business case for investing billions in another variant
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 32):
The only other case would be if the 787, A350 or 777X start challenging its CASM; at that point something would need to be done; either re-engine or launch the A389-whichever would improve the CASM enough to stay at the top of the heap

Better. These are sentient arguments i'm more than happy to engage in  

Rgds
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4963
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 33):

Better. These are sentient arguments i'm more than happy to engage in

I agree that these are solid, factual issues that can be debated. However, there are many that feel that when Airbus committed to building the A380 in the first place it did so more on hubris than on a solid business case. Boeing also considered building a new VLA, but came to the conclusion that there was not really enough market to support even one new VLA, let alone two. I believe events have proved Boeing's analysis to have been more accurate than Airbus's; if the program had gone perfectly they have only now sold enough to reach their original figure of enough sales to generate a positive ROI (I believe the original number was 250), and it has been offered for 12 years, and it is a long, long way from achieving a profit. My point is that I believe that it is possible that the same kind of overly optimistic thinking may lead them to launch the A389 when a cold, hard look at the numbers would indicate that they could much more profitably use the resources elsewhere. I did think Boeing had a window of opportunity to launch the NSA and get the jump on the narrowbody market, but due to their problems with the 787 and 748 programs they lost it, and are forced to do the MAX instead. This would give Airbus the opportunity about 2020 to do the same, as it is very clear that the NEO will involve less effort and expense than the MAX, and Boeing will be deeply involved with the 777X for quite a while. I think this (or a re-engine of the A330) would be a much more sensible use of resources than the A389. But that is just my opinion.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:34 pm

Quoting Josh32121 (Reply 29):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 26):
I'd love to see how DL plan to compete on LAX-SYD with a 77L if/when QF lump on the A389R. Cheerio!



DL would compete by offering seats on a modern aircraft at a competitive price--just like QF does today on its 388's.

From a passenger experience perspective, the A380 is hardly a product differentiator. What features or amenities does it have that other modern aircraft such as the 777 or an up-to-date 747 don't have other than more seats? The A380 shines in the airlines' accounting departments with its impressive CASM. A380:777LR is not Maybach:Tata Nano as you imply.

As you know very well - i was referring to CASM. Am struggling to imagine how DL will be able to stay with QF in terms of ticket price they offer once they start using A389s SYD-LAX.

Mind you there are people who would continue to use DL at twice the price, so nightmarish is the concept of flying any other airline...
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
Posts: 11833
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
I was in Dubai last year and noted on their stands they have A389 markings for the nosewheel stops.

Who else would be the launch customer?  
Quoting horstroad (Reply 20):
These markings are also in LH´s hangars at FRA.

Ahhh... No hint to the length of the A389!   

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 17):
What the debate has centred around is how big of a stretch would the A389 fuse be? The existing A388 is 72m LOA. Some say the A389 when she arrives will be 79m, 80m, 85m, or even 88m LOA. The 88m length appears a hard limit because of the impact anything longer would have on being able to park the thing at airports.

IMHO, the length will be determined by the range requirement. 85m will be tough for 7200nm. Note: I've heard proposals up to 89m, but reviews seem to put the maximum at 85m to 87m.

79m to stay in the "80m box" I consider this unlikely.
85m was proposed by Udvar-Hazy and is probably the longest length.
But could there be something between 79m and 85m?    That is what I consider the most likely.

But 88m? That is for selling to those who think 88 is a 'lucky number.'  
Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
Given the financial climate of the airline industry and with airlines partnering up, a stretch of an already ultra high capacity aircraft seems ..... like a stretch (pun intended).

Actually, the state of the airline industry makes it more likely. SQ would love a larger frame to PEK and a few destinations in Europe. EK? A given. QF? Sure, as long as there is range for SYD-LAX.

No one else is a driver for the A389. Not unless BA, LH, or AF dramatically change their A380 strategy.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 16):
Seriously, I don't think you'll see it launched until c. 2015, by which time hopefully Airbus will have FINALLY worked out how to build them in decent numbers....

We hope.  
Quoting gemuser (Reply 5):
There is speculation (I stress it is speculation!) around that some of the deferred QF A380s may be delivered as among the first A389s.

I would agree, but very range dependent. 7200nm will be the minimum range that QF could accept.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
WAH64D
Posts: 744
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:14 am

RE: Will LAX Be The First US Airport For A380 900?

Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:24 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 36):
85m was proposed by Udvar-Hazy and is probably the longest length.

Budvar-Crazy at it again? I wouldn't pay too much attention to anything he says. He's a bit like a spoiled child, nothing to say and saying it far too loudly!

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 35):
Mind you there are people who would continue to use DL at twice the price, so nightmarish is the concept of flying any other airline...

DL are easily one of the worst airlines I've ever flown with, marginally better than the old UA.

I'm quite certain that a cheaper A389 fare LAX-MEL or LAX-SYD will attract all but the most stringent brand morons and points slaves.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.