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anfromme
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Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:46 am

Sorry, source only in German at this time:
http://www.aktien-meldungen.de/Nachr...-30-Bestellungen-fuer-A380-4619930
Summary translation:
At Farnborough, Leahy conceded that he won't achieve the targeted 30 sales for the A380 in 2012. "The market for very large aircraft has become weaker". In May, Leahy still reiterated his sales target of 30, although he already added it would not be easy. Airbus had been hoping for A380 orders from Emirates and Cathay Pacific in particular.
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AA737-823
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:50 am

Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:03 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?

Was wondering the same thing - quite possible they went with A350-1000 for the time being as they see no immediate need to get VLAs.
Then again - they won't get the A350-1000s for another six years, either.

I'm curious now what this means for the TK RFP - as well as the 747-8i sales Boeing was confident of concluding. Leahy was talking about the VLA market in general, not the A380 specifically.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:16 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?

I think so. Their choice for 26 -1000s means IMHO no VLA orders for the next couple of years. A couple of weeks ago Zeke reported CX completed their VLA evaluation, and he concluded the 747-8i wasn't part of the plan - but I think no A380 either.

Could also mean an indication TK will go for the 748i as their VLA. Hopefully we'll learn more this week.
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flood
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:13 am

Who knows...

Airbus via twitter: "If you're at #FIA12 then join us for a very special event near the #A380 at 12:45 today!"

Fingers crossed.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:47 am

Quoting flood (Reply 4):
Who knows...

Airbus via twitter: "If you're at #FIA12 then join us for a very special event near the #A380 at 12:45 today!"

Fingers crossed.

Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!
 
flood
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:54 am

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order

I would think so...

Airbus: "We're clearly very keen on this one!"

An order from TK would indeed be awesome.
 
art
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:55 am

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

A new customer would be something to celebrate. If TK turns out to have chosen the A380, how many would they likely be ordering and how many options?

Cathay: perhaps they are waiting for A388 incremental improvements to bring performance close to what they would ideally like to have?
 
teahan
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:09 pm

Last year the "very special event" at Le Bourget turned out to be nothing.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:23 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

The fact they postponed it could indeed point to an order - but "very special event" has turned out too many times not to be that special after all. And I'm not even talking about Airbus or airshows in particular, but trade shows in general.

Fingers crossed, though.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:52 pm

18 Jan 2012: "I've told Tom [Enders, Airbus chief executive] that I'm going to sell 30 A380s this year," said chief operating officer for customers John Leahy. "Thirty is a good number because we're going to try to keep the book-to-bill ratio at at least one or better." (Ref: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...2-dismisses-747-8i-threat-367068/)

11 Jul 2012: Leahy conceded that he won't achieve the targeted 30 sales for the A380 in 2012. "The market for very large aircraft has become weaker".

So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...

What we really have is John the Jester...
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:54 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

(c) He lost one/some clients to competition.   
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:43 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

With regard to a), given how long he's been in the business and how many airplanes he's already sold, I think it's pretty save to say that he's as good as predicting the market as anybody in the industry, never mind anybody on a.net
With regard to b) Why would he try to grab headlines by saying something in January (and reiterating it again in May) that he knows he's going to have to do a u-turn on again later on? Especially if his bonus likely depends on it (as indicated by him stating that he told Enders what his sales goal is)?

Quoting Northstar80 (Reply 11):
(c) He lost one/some clients to competition.

(d) A potential client decided not to order any VLAs for the time being.

To be honest, (d) seems the most likely, given (1) how many people - including the Airbus chief of marketing - expected CX to sign on for the A380 (who went A350-1000 instead, at least for the time being) and (2) how Leahy phrased his concession of the sales target. He stated that the VLA market had cooled down, which wouldn't suggest he lost a sales campaign, while he already hinted a few months ago that Airbus already lost UA's narrowbody order. So it's not like he's afraid to say if he lost a campaign.
Also, I don't think Leahy expected a 100% win ratio for all VLA campaigns when he set the initial target. Case in point - he probably didn't count TK as a definite win in January.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:54 pm

By the way - here's an English language article on Leahy's revised target, including a longer quote from the man himself:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...a380-sales-as-demand-dwindles.html

Quote:
“The big aircraft market has been slowing down,” Airbus Sales Chief John Leahy said in an interview at the Farnborough air show today. The target of 30 is “looking like a stretch at this point but when you set your goals at the beginning of the year you can’t change them. Let’s see how close we can get.”
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:17 pm

Quoting anfromme (Thread starter):
"The market for very large aircraft has become weaker".

Understatement of the decade.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
(d) A potential client decided not to order any VLAs for the time being.

I think this is the most logical. I also see Leahy having a suprise A380 order up his sleeve. Its always better to underpromise and overdeliver.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...

What we really have is John the Jester...

What a spiteful and unnecessary post. Might it be (c) things change.

Sheesh.
 
bigjku
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:48 pm

To be fair PM John really crosses a lot of common business practices for many people. He sells a good product, there is really no need for some of the over the top crap he likes to do from time to time. It is going to strike a lot of people the wrong way and generate negative reactions.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:26 pm

Also to be fair PM. John is a really good salesman. And even a good salesman can be annoying to those not looking to buy his product.  

Girl Scout cookies or magazine subscription anyone?

bt
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:27 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
With regard to a), given how long he's been in the business and how many airplanes he's already sold, I think it's pretty save to say that he's as good as predicting the market as anybody in the industry, never mind anybody on a.net

Leahy is a great salesman, but not the clairvoyant that some here claim he his.

He should be called out when his pompous, bombastic and arrogant statements turn out to be baloney.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
Why would he try to grab headlines by saying something in January (and reiterating it again in May) that he knows he's going to have to do a u-turn on again later on? Especially if his bonus likely depends on it (as indicated by him stating that he told Enders what his sales goal is)?

Why indeed? Maybe his bonus cycle ended in May? We saw inquires into his and Noel Foregeard's behaviours with regard to share sales back in the days of the A380 delays (oops, we're still in those days...).

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
He stated that the VLA market had cooled down

When has it ever been hot? Back in the days of the 747-400? Boeing tried to flog the various 747-500/600 ideas, none went anywhere. Boeing looked into partnering with Airbus on the A380 and both walked away. Airbus launched the A380 with amazingly optimisitic sales projections that it's never been close to meeting.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
Also, I don't think Leahy expected a 100% win ratio for all VLA campaigns when he set the initial target.

Then why the pompous statement "I told my boss the CEO that I'm going to sell 30 A380s this year"? What success rate was he expecting? What investors chose to act on such a clear public statement from a man who holds the title of Airbus' Chief Commercial Officer?

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
What a spiteful and unnecessary post.

That's your opinion, and you're certainly welcome to have it and express it.

My opinion is that many here have way too high an opinion of JL, and it's "necessary" to point out the things he gets wrong because so many here worship the man and can't see any flaws in him, or at least won't admit them in public.

I feel no spite to or jealousy of the man, despite what your posting suggests. I'm just pointing out behaviors of his that most here seem to be so willing to gloss over.

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
Might it be (c) things change.

What's true today that wasn't true in February?

His statement of February was so full of certitude.

Why was he so certain in February yet is backing off from his statement now?

Could it be he overstated his position?

I think a fair person would admit that's just what he did.

Once one does that, then it's just a matter of appraising how wildly he overstated his position.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 18):
He sells a good product, there is really no need for some of the over the top crap he likes to do from time to time. It is going to strike a lot of people the wrong way and generate negative reactions.

  
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:50 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16):
I think this is the most logical. I also see Leahy having a suprise A380 order up his sleeve. Its always better to underpromise and overdeliver.



That is for sure, especially when the industry and the markets are so hungry for some positive news. TK probably went with the A380 and A330 deal over the B748. Understandable decision but never-less a blow the 747-8 program.

KrisYYZ
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:59 pm

No.1 mistake of a salesman is to pretend as if your potential customer is already in your pocket, when they are listening. Customers hate it to be taken for granted, and I expect airlines not to be any different.
Never ask somebody if he's a pilot. If he is, he will let you know soon enough!
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 9):
The fact they postponed it could indeed point to an order - but "very special event" has turned out too many times not to be that special after all. And I'm not even talking about Airbus or airshows in particular, but trade shows in general.

I'm afraid you're probably right   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vORlDObrSE8

It sounds like song and dance but I suppose they could still hang pinatas off the engines and couple it with an order announcement.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:53 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 22):
I'm afraid you're probably right   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vORlDObrSE8

I really couldn't understand what he said - listened three times.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

Might be........we'll know soon enough.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:53 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...


What we really have is John the Jester...

I'm sure there must have been a reason for this rant. For the life of me I can't make out what it was...

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
My opinion is that many here have way too high an opinion of JL, and it's "necessary" to point out the things he gets wrong because so many here worship the man and can't see any flaws in him, or at least won't admit them in public.

From an alternative viewpoint, of course, all those people are doing is trying to defend him from the deluge of vitriol, most of it unjustified, that he is subject to routinely on here....
Just depends on where your head's at, I guess.....

Me, I think he's one of the most unfairly maligned people on here, and for what it's worth, the predominant reason I'll put forward (not the only one) for this is, basically, er, jealousy.
He should be working for Boeing, really, shouldn't he?

Anyone want to argue that he's not successful? Very successful, even, at his job?

Rgds
 
N14AZ
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:00 pm

Quoting anfromme (Thread starter):
"The market for very large aircraft has become weaker"

Hmm, and what has to happen so that the market becomes stronger again?

If this is the actual reason than I do not see why this should change quickly. Maybe later this decade.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:07 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
Anyone want to argue that he's not successful? Very successful, even, at his job?

Many successful people are not loved by the business community. I am not sure what that has to do with anything.

It really is very simple for me. Some of the most successful people I know in my field (which is sales and finance related) are total dicks who take every chance to talk down their competition and are generally not liked. Other equally successful people will, even when given the chance to say something, decline to do so and instead focus on what they offer.

Simply boiling the argument down to success is pretty irrelevant to the discussion of why he gets so much grief. It smacks of the whole "Well he made the trains run on time" arguments heard in support of other people. There are right and wrong ways to do business and his way of doing business is one that tends to make a lot of enemies in the process. So long as he is successful I doubt he gives a damn.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:08 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
He should be working for Boeing, really, shouldn't he?

Anyone want to argue that he's not successful? Very successful, even, at his job?

   He is obviously extremely successful. But to be successful in the business world you tend to be very vocal and typically isolate a few people in the process. Boeing would be lucky to have him. It doesn't hurt that Airbus and Boeing both offer great products.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:23 pm

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 26):
Many successful people are not loved by the business community. I am not sure what that has to do with anything

When the argument being presented is effectively that he's a complete tosspot who doesn't know his a**e from his elbow, I'd say it's extremely relevant.

But hey. What do I know?  

Rgds
 
bigjku
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 28):
When the argument being presented is effectively that he's a complete tosspot who doesn't know his a**e from his elbow, I'd say it's extremely relevant.

I would agree the guy is no fool. But I can very much see why many people don't respect him either.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:35 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
He should be called out when his pompous, bombastic and arrogant statements turn out to be baloney.

It was Leahy himself that conceded that he's unlikely to reach the self-proclaimed target for the A380 this year. News agencies are reporting on it, the share price is down a few points (amid reports of potential A350 delays as well). Heck, there's a thread on it on a.net.
So there really is no hiding the fact that he's (probably) not going to sell 30 A380s this year.

But let's keep things in perspective. We're talking about the admission that he won't sell 30 A380s in 2012. Extremely annoying (to none more than Leahy himself, I presume), but hardly catastrophic for Airbus.
If that's all that's needed to set you off on a rant about all the deeds, past and present, of Mr Leahy it really is very hard to believe that you "feel no spite to or jealousy of the man".

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
From an alternative viewpoint, of course, all those people are doing is trying to defend him from the deluge of vitriol, most of it unjustified, that he is subject to routinely on here....
Just depends on where your head's at, I guess.....

  

As to what indeed is different now that made him concede the target - I for one would like to know. Just going on about how Leahy was wrong and has a habit of annoying people isn't contributive to actually finding anything even approximating an answer, though.

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 21):
No.1 mistake of a salesman is to pretend as if your potential customer is already in your pocket, when they are listening. Customers hate it to be taken for granted, and I expect airlines not to be any different.

  
From what we've seen and heard before and during the show, I think in this particular case, it was CX that spoilt Leahy's (and Airbus') target; irrespective of whether this happened out of annoyance or just because of a change of heart after seeing the 24th iteration of various numbers. CX did sign, but "only" for A350-1000s, while clearly the expectation especially from the chief of marketing for the A380, Richard Carcaillet, was that they were going to buy A380s. I suspect Leahy expected the same, but it was only Carcaillet that stated this publicly in May (see Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales60% NB Market (by rheinwaldner, May 25 2012 in Civil Aviation))
Whether he expected this in addition to or instead of the A350-1000 orders, we don't know. And it's fair to say that we probably won't ever know.

Besides trying to understand what may have prompted Leahy's concession, I also wonder how many A380s he is going to sell this year. In the actual quote (see above), he only states "Let’s see how close [to the original target] we can get." but doesn't give a number. Doesn't sound like he believes that Transaero's 4 A380s are all he's going to be able to sell this year, anyway.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:36 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 15):
logical. I also see Leahy having a suprise A380 order up his sleeve. Its always better to underpromise and overdeliver.
Quoting krisyyz (Reply 20):
That is for sure, especially when the industry and the markets are so hungry for some positive news. TK probably went with the A380 and A330 deal over the B748. Understandable decision but never-less a blow the 747-8 program.

So, Leahy saying he's going to miss a sales target (that wasn't that big to start with) means that he's got a big order to announce? If he had a major order, he'd be probably be more confident he could put another one together before year end and maybe hit his goal!

It's certainly possible that we're about to learn of a TK 380 order, but I wouldn't take this interview with Leahy as evidence that it's coming.
 
N14AZ
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:40 pm

So let's say it will be only 15 orders this year, or maybe even only 10.
From where do you think could this additional 11 or 6 airframes come from?

- TK: 50 / 50% chance
- CX: obviously no chance
- EK: obviously no chance
- SV?
- VVIP or governmental jet?
- VN finally?
- China Eastern?

I could imagine BA ordering additional airframes but not before they have taken over their first airframes.
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:41 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
I'm sure there must have been a reason for this rant. For the life of me I can't make out what it was...

The more succinct version of the rant is pretty much the exact part of the next posting that you also chose to quote, namely:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):

My opinion is that many here have way too high an opinion of JL, and it's "necessary" to point out the things he gets wrong because so many here worship the man and can't see any flaws in him, or at least won't admit them in public.

...

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
Me, I think he's one of the most unfairly maligned people on here, and for what it's worth, the predominant reason I'll put forward (not the only one) for this is, basically, er, jealousy.

Above I've characterized his statements as "pompous, bombastic and arrogant".

Do you feel this falls far from the mark?

Do you understand that a person very well might not be jealous of someone they feel is "pompous, bombastic and arrogant"?

Why do people leap to jealosy as the answer?

Personally, it does make me think some just prefer to gloss over the man's deficiencies because he's an effective salesman in spite of his frequent boorish statements.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
He should be working for Boeing, really, shouldn't he?

I've had sales people who I felt were "pompous, bombastic and arrogant" that directly contributed to my employer's revenue stream and to the value of my stock grants and purchases, never mind some companies I have no direct involvement in, never mind an industry that I have next to no involvement in other than being an enthusiast, and I wish those people worked elsewhere.

Truth is, we have no idea exactly what Leahy contributes to Airbus. Clearly he's not the only one working in the offices there, yet he is glorified by many here much like Stalin was by his Soviet brethren, like the man is without faults or flaws. Who knows, maybe Leahy invented the Internet too...

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
Anyone want to argue that he's not successful? Very successful, even, at his job?

Not me, above I said Leahy is a great salesman, but not the clairvoyant that some here claim he his..

What I would like to argue is:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
What's true today that wasn't true in February?

His statement of February was so full of certitude.

Why was he so certain in February yet is backing off from his statement now?

Could it be he overstated his position?

yet it seems the vitriol gets more comment...
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 26):
Simply boiling the argument down to success is pretty irrelevant to the discussion of why he gets so much grief. It smacks of the whole "Well he made the trains run on time" arguments heard in support of other people

Are you referring to Mike Godwin?

Sorry, couldn't resist   

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 27):
He is obviously extremely successful. But to be successful in the business world you tend to be very vocal and typically isolate a few people in the process. Boeing would be lucky to have him. It doesn't hurt that Airbus and Boeing both offer great products.

  
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:44 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 27):
Boeing would be lucky to have him.

Actually, I think if Boeing wanted a sales person with the same personality as JL then, they would have hired someone with the same style already. I don't pay much attention to Boeing Salesmen, but it seems that they do take a lower profile and leave it to the VP's to make the grandiose statement.

bt
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:46 pm

Have to agree with Astuteman regarding JL.

I spoke some years ago to someone rather high in Boeing (an ex-MCDD executive). He went to great lengths to advocate all the advantages Boeing designs had over Airbus.

When I turned the table and asked him what Airbus had over Boeing, his reply was curt and to the point: "John Leahy!"

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Stitch
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:47 pm

Frankly, at the moment Airbus needs to deliver 30 A380s in a year. Once they can sustain that, JL will have an easier time getting existing and new customers to pony up.

There were good signs they'd so this year, but I think the wing issues have derailed that. We're at what, 11, with MH's first delivery?

[Edited 2012-07-11 11:49:51]
 
phxa340
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:48 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 35):
I don't pay much attention to Boeing Salesmen, but it seems that they do take a lower profile and leave it to the VP's to make the grandiose statement.

Oh yes , fully agree , but what works for Airbus might not work for Boeing and vice versa ... I think it has helped Airbus that JL has such a strong personality - would it work for Boeing - no idea , but I wouldn't see why not.
 
N14AZ
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
We're at what, 11, with MH's first delivery?

No, we are at 10 airframes. Last delivery was LH # 10 on June 15.
 
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anfromme
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 35):
Actually, I think if Boeing wanted a sales person with the same personality as JL then, they would have hired someone with the same style already. I don't pay much attention to Boeing Salesmen, but it seems that they do take a lower profile and leave it to the VP's to make the grandiose statement.

A technicality: Randy Tinseth is a VP as well, but it's true that the bolder statements with Boeing usually come from the program VPs, like Elizabeth Lund, not Tinseth.

Randy Baseler, who retired in 2007, I believe, was quite different in his approach, though - much more Leahy-esque, and subsequently subject to almost as many comments on a.net as Leahy, particularly after he started "Randy's blog".
Which does show that there's a particular style of marketing/selling that seems to rub a lot of people in the wrong way.
When discussing a missed target, I don't think it's very helpful to just go on about personality, though.
Or at the very least, I am not really interested in the personality aspect of it, as there are generally some cold hard facts behind a missed sales target - usually not associated with the salesman's personality.
Sure, the cold hard fact could be that his goal wasn't achievable to begin with, and he's just now being forced to admit this. Given his experience and the reports around CX before Farnborough, and the timing of his admission, I really don't think that this is very likely at all, though.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
yet it seems the vitriol gets more comment...

So you're admittinig that your posts had vitriol in them. With that established, I think the answer to "why does the vitriol get more comment" is that, in a post with 80% vitriol, nobody really believes that the three questions posed in the last six lines of that post are more than rhetorical in nature. People will generally consider the last 20% as really being in line with the vitriolic 80%.
If you don't want comments on your vitriol, just don't post any. (Vitriol, that is.)

[Edited 2012-07-11 12:15:38]
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:08 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 38):
would it work for Boeing - no idea , but I wouldn't see why not.

Boeing had "Harry". But he was not much of a salesman.

Perhaps the reason why Boeing don't have one "head salesman" is they do the sales as teams which may or may not include the military business as well. If anyone had the same "talent" as JL at Boeing, he/she would probably quickly move up the chain of command and not get stuck in sales for long.  

bt
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rwy04lga
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 22):
I'm afraid you're probably right   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vORlDObrSE8

It sounds like song and dance but I suppose they could still hang pinatas off the engines and couple it with an order announcement.

The HR manager?

Quoting astuteman (Reply 24):
I'm sure there must have been a reason for this rant. For the life of me I can't make out what it was...

I'm sure you're astute enough to figure it out even though you might disagree with it.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 28):
a**e

a** for the Yanks

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 29):
I would agree the guy is no fool. But I can very much see why many people don't respect him either.

  
Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
 
flood
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:25 pm

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 42):
The HR manager?

Yeah, the HR manager speaking of "seeing the most engaged employees", hence we'll probably be left with some dance routine.

They're such a tease
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chuchoteur
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:34 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
Leahy is a great salesman, but not the clairvoyant that some here claim he his.

...In reply to some of the above, one of the things John Leahy is good at is closing a deal, even if the people on the other side of the table don't like him.

Actually his ability to predict the market is quite off - last year he hadn't seen he'd sell more than 1400+ aircraft! However overall he has managed to lead the Airbus commercial team quite successfully over a pretty long period - 12 years of parity with Boeing is pretty good going, and he has worn out a few guys on the other side of the atlantic over the years...

Quoting flood (Reply 43):
Yeah, the HR manager speaking of "seeing the most engaged employees", hence we'll probably be left with some dance routine.

Well, I believe there will be a nice backdrop at least...  
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:43 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
John the Jester...

              

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):

When has it ever been hot? Back in the days of the 747-400?

The best year for B-747 sales was in 1990 when 122 were sold, all B-747-400s. But the B-747 has had many, many years where 50 or more were sold, of all models.

John Leahy made his prediction in January when the wing rib feet problem was already known, and it became worse by March when a second type of crack (the more serious of the two types of cracks) became known.

That ment no one was going to order the A-380 until all the engineering work for the repairs was completed. UN didn't convert their MoU for the A-380 until just last month, and only formed up 4 of the 6 in the MoU.
 
flood
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 45):
UN didn't convert their MoU for the A-380 until just last month, and only formed up 4 of the 6 in the MoU.

Probably because their MoU was for 4 aircraft, not 6.
 
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anfromme
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:55 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 45):
and only formed up 4 of the 6 in the MoU.

The MoU - when it was announced in November 2011 - was already for "only" 4, not 6, A380.
http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...ro-airlines-commits-to-four-a380s/

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 45):
John Leahy made his prediction in January when the wing rib feet problem was already known, and it became worse by March when a second type of crack (the more serious of the two types of cracks) became known.

A valid point, but the cracks and the time it's going to implement the respective fixes in production aircraft may introduce some delay into some deliveries (with the first factory-produced A380s having the fix to be delivered in 2014), but I don't think it's going to make much difference to an airline that is pondering a potential new A380 order at the moment. Earliest available delivery slots are around 2016 I believe. At that point, the wing-crack-related delays should no longer play a role. They shouldn't amount to the same excessive delays we saw before EIS, anyway.
It's still possible that some airlines are a bit weary and want to see how these delays play out exactly, but the timing of Leahy's admission would lead me to believe that the wing cracks and associated delays (if any) at least weren't the main reason. Any customer looking at the A380 would have been aware of the type II cracks in March/April as well.
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:04 pm

Current cognitive studies claim humans are occasionally rational, and that emotions (not necessarily irrational) are far more important in most situations. The difficulty of the scientific method is likely explained by this. The implications of this is that a great salesman develops a 'persona', even 'personae', that work with the various customers they deal with. And they may even have a 'persona' for dealing with the press. JL is obviously a master at this. It really doesn't make any difference whether you like it or not, it may even not make a difference whether his customers like his 'persona', which may not be the one we see.
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mogandoCI
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RE: Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012

Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:15 pm

Anyone think there's a slim chance that Asiana might consider the A380 to remain competitive against Korean Air ?

Sadly, CX will not order the super-jumbo since HKG is about to begin constructing a 3rd runway and new terminal, so neither gate nor slots would be remotely constrained for the next 20 years.

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