jetskipper
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Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:54 pm

 
TWA902fly
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:00 pm

I think the biggest competitor here will be Allegiant. Considerng this is only 4x/week, I think they're going for the leisure crowd headed west. Also - notice that the aircraft is in South Bend almost 11 hours? I would think it'd turn back around at 6am, but it sits around until 10am. Is there a reason other then crew scheduling for this?

'902
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point2point
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:07 pm

Finally.... and congrats to both F9 and SBN.

I do believe this route was approved as part of the SCASD grant from last year. And with flying it four days a week right now, going into the slow or winter season, it's a good way to test the waters here.

So SBN actually gets an LCC here (not sure G4 really counts here since G4 is a "vacation" type airline) and will probably see some fare relief on flights going to DEN and westward. I'm thinking that a lot of this will be connects in DEN, since the DEN-SBN market is only about 30 PDEW. But maybe the low fares may push up some the PDEW.

So.... all the best.

 
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:18 pm

Quoting Jetskipper (Thread starter):
To be flown with an Airbus!

That part surprised me, as I was expecting an E-Jet of some sort. The 4x/week part also surprised me, as SBN was shooting for daily service in the SCASD application, but most small F9 cities are served less than daily.

Congratulations to both F9 and SBN. SBN has had a very good year in general... first G4 to PGD, then more DL ATL service, and now F9 to DEN.

And maybe this will be the catalyst that makes UA finally start FWA-DEN (which has been rumored for years).
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
toltommy
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:35 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
I do believe this route was approved as part of the SCASD grant from last year. And with flying it four days a week right now, going into the slow or winter season, it's a good way to test the waters here.

What a concept, winning a grant and then using it to actually attract new service! To bad the clowns running TOL just seem to collect the grants and then never actually use them....
 
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knope2001
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:31 pm

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 1):
Notice that the aircraft is in South Bend almost 11 hours? I would think it'd turn back around at 6am, but it sits around until 10am. Is there a reason other then crew scheduling for this?

Crew scheduling is the reason for this. The same crew that brings it in one night takes it back the next day, and this gives acceptable time for crew rest unless there's a serious inbound delay. Frontier sometimes does this at daily stations to avoid rotating crew overnights, but it's especially important at a less-than-daily station like this. If the plane left early out of SBN, a crew coming in at 11:33pm on Tuesday night would not fly out again until 6:45am on Friday. That's two full days of layover, including two extra nights of hotel rooms (three total) for each crew member. The other solution is to deadheaded crews in and out, but that means blocking off five seats on every flight for crew.

This is a big reason why often the low-frequency stations don't overnight aircraft. Much easier to come in during the day and turn right around.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting toltommy (Reply 4):
What a concept, winning a grant and then using it to actually attract new service! To bad the clowns running TOL just seem to collect the grants and then never actually use them....

Funny you mentioned TOL.

They want to join the F9 route map as well with a SCASD grant that they got about the same time as SBN's. But as you said, they haven't had the best luck with SCASD grants (hello, JetAmerica). Yet sometimes, grants don't need to be used for new service: FWA got a SCASD grant for a CUTE system several years ago. If this latest TOL grant has to be returned like what happened with the one for NYC, they might want to think along those lines.
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
LAXintl
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
was approved as part of the SCASD grant from last year.

Yes $750,000 in government cheese for a 2-year revenue guarantee program.

Of course $750,000 question is what happens when the funding period ends....
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
azstar
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:55 pm

Congratulations to F9 on another loser route. Once the subsidy ends they'll be outta there.
 
caleb1
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:17 pm

I don't think this is a loser route at all. The University of Notre Dame is in South Bend along with other industries. Sports and academic related travel alone should help the route some. I wish them well. United had this route for years during the 70s and 80s using a 727. I was hoping UAL would resume this service with a regional jet, but it looks like F9 beat them to it with even better aircraft. Good luck Frontier!
 
rampart
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:19 pm

Quoting azstar (Reply 8):
Congratulations to F9 on another loser route. Once the subsidy ends they'll be outta there.

If it's a loser route, yes, they should get outta there after the money ceases. I give credit to F9 for answering these ventures, when others aren't. Try something. If they lose nothing, fine, it's a reasonable experiment. If it doesn't catch on (Wichita), move on. I also give credit to the cities who try to lure service with grants. They have a choice to a) continue granting subsidies to the airline with renewed grants (or civic taxes or something), or b) attempt to stimulate local traffic such that a route can sustain itself. Either way, use it or lose it.

-Rampart
 
point2point
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting toltommy (Reply 4):
What a concept, winning a grant and then using it to actually attract new service! To bad the clowns running TOL just seem to collect the grants and then never actually use them....

Yea, I think that we can agree that it's a pretty good grant, eh... if it's used?

Also, if I remember, TOL received a grant as well for F9 to start service to DEN, and I think that it was last year as well, at the same time as SBN.

Aren't SBN and TOL like about 100 or so miles from each other? If so, I would wonder if F9 would do both cities using both grants..... but we all could be surprised tomorrow when F9 announces TOL as a new station, eh?

And closing out I don't think that F9 is going to TOL (although I could be wrong, and personally would want to see F9 there if there's any $$$$ to be made)..... because SBN and TOL seem close together and SBN then seems to be giving a much more aggressive effort to lure service.

 
 
AWACSooner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:26 pm

F9's new strategy seems to be flying to rarely-used airports vs. battling WN and UA in the bigger markets. Here's hoping it works for them, but I see nothing but further erosion of the market as this drags further along.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:28 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
Of course $750,000 question is what happens when the funding period ends....

That's always the question. Sometimes it doesn't work - ICT - and sometimes it does, such as PHF.

DEN-PHF has a healthy revenue guarantee (not SCASD) of $1.2 million, of which only about $200,000 has ever been used, and most of that was during the first winter season.

During the summer, the aircraft are packed and now it's up to daily and going year round. The revenue guarantee has been extended, which suggests they see value for money.

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toltommy
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:28 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 6):
They want to join the F9 route map as well with a SCASD grant that they got about the same time as SBN's. But as you said, they haven't had the best luck with SCASD grants (hello, JetAmerica).

JetAmerica never actually tapped the SCASD grant for NYC service. The port used taxpayer dollars, expecting to be reimbursed for the startup costs from the SCASD grant. That grant was extended a few times before it was finally given back. Obviously they are not trying too hard to use the grant (given the success of other cities in attracting F9), or even F9 knows that TOL is just going to be a cash vacuum. I don't want to see the money used for anything but attracting new service to TOL. You gotta crawl before you can walk. The building needs a roof that doesn't leak, and more airplanes flying to it, before you do something like a CUTE system at TOL.
 
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tjwgrr
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:34 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 5):
Crew scheduling is the reason for this. The same crew that brings it in one night takes it back the next day, and this gives acceptable time for crew rest unless there's a serious inbound delay. Frontier sometimes does this at daily stations to avoid rotating crew overnights, but it's especially important at a less-than-daily station like this

F9 doing the same thing here in GRR, only daily.

Now that GRR lost F9 MKE ERJ service, the one flight per day to DEN thing has me scratching my head. Seems like 2x per day would generate more volume due to connection options- operate the E190 2x instead of A319/ A320 1x per day which sits idle 10-11 hours in GRR......
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:01 pm

Quoting tjwgrr (Reply 15):
Now that GRR lost F9 MKE ERJ service, the one flight per day to DEN thing has me scratching my head. Seems like 2x per day would generate more volume due to connection options- operate the E190 2x instead of A319/ A320 1x per day which sits idle 10-11 hours in GRR......

1 x daily (or less) is fairly standard for Frontier at the smaller stations.

DEN-MSN did so well they put it up to 2 x daily for a while but that pushed the market a tad too far. So it's a happy 1 x daily again.

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flyinryan99
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:05 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 11):
nd closing out I don't think that F9 is going to TOL (although I could be wrong, and personally would want to see F9 there if there's any $$$$ to be made)..... because SBN and TOL seem close together and SBN then seems to be giving a much more aggressive effort to lure service.

Distance means nothing....they are in GRR, IND, and MDW (and DTW). F9 won't end up in TOL because of lack of hard physical work by the Port and the fact they would compete with themselves out of DTW.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:32 pm

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 1):
I think the biggest competitor here will be Allegiant

I dont think so. Passengers flying to LAS will still probably fly G4. You cant get the casino and hotel deals from F9 that you can get from G4.

These new 4 day per week schedules I think really ensure F9 wont get business travel.

Quoting tjwgrr (Reply 15):
Now that GRR lost F9 MKE ERJ service, the one flight per day to DEN thing has me scratching my head. Seems like 2x per day would generate more volume due to connection options- operate the E190 2x instead of A319/ A320 1x per day which sits idle 10-11 hours in GRR......

I think youre right. 2x daily with E90 would be better for GRR than once daily A319. It would given them a much better schedule than UA.

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 17):
Distance means nothing....they are in GRR, IND, and MDW (and DTW). F9 won't end up in TOL because of lack of hard physical work by the Port and the fact they would compete with themselves out of DTW.

I doubt that F9 is getting a lot of traffic out of DTW that comes up from TOL. Delta definitely, but probably not F9.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:37 pm

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 17):
Distance means nothing....they are in GRR, IND, and MDW (and DTW). F9 won't end up in TOL because of lack of hard physical work by the Port and the fact they would compete with themselves out of DTW.

That last is probably a consideration.

It always surprises me how well Frontier does out of DTW, at least in terms of loads. In February, for example, the average l/f was 95%. In March (the latest numbers I've seen, the l/f was over 90%.

I doubt they want to fool around was that.

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enilria
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:39 pm

I imagine that whenever F9 puts out a press release somebody yells over to the P.R Department, "before it goes out, make sure the check has cleared".
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:43 pm

wowowowowowowowwow.

exciting news! i attended Notre Dame. i once flew F9 to DEN (and onward to SJD) for Spring Break haha.

  
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FWAERJ
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:23 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 18):
These new 4 day per week schedules I think really ensure F9 wont get business travel.

Lake City Bank (located in Warsaw, halfway between SBN and FWA) said in the SCASD application that they were ready to support the service.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 18):
Passengers flying to LAS will still probably fly G4. You cant get the casino and hotel deals from F9 that you can get from G4.

F9 has no carryon bag fee, premium seating options, IFE, free soft drinks, and other perks that G4 lacks. If the fare is similar, one might choose to take a connection in DEN to get to LAS over the G4 nonstop.

(I'm not bashing G4... I've flown them before FWA-SFB and back. They have a solid product, and they do what is said on the box: deliver a very good vacation deal.)

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
It always surprises me how well Frontier does out of DTW, at least in terms of loads. In February, for example, the average l/f was 95%. In March (the latest numbers I've seen, the l/f was over 90%.

I doubt they want to fool around was that.

On a related subject, how does F9 do out of IND? Are the loads so good that they would have a hard time serving, say, FWA or CVG, or has WN on IND-DEN hurt F9 on the route?
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 22):
On a related subject, how does F9 do out of IND? Are the loads so good that they would have a hard time serving, say, FWA or CVG, or has WN on IND-DEN hurt F9 on the route?

DEN-IND seems to do well, still. I believe February and March (the latest I've seen) were both over 90% average l/f.

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Bobloblaw
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:01 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 22):
F9 has no carryon bag fee, premium seating options, IFE, free soft drinks, and other perks that G4 lacks. If the fare is similar, one might choose to take a connection in DEN to get to LAS over the G4 nonstop.

No one cares about that in these type of markets. If they did, Spirit and Allegiant would be forced to change their business plan long ago.

Plus if F9 Revenue Management has even one competent analyst, they wont be taking much LAS traffic at all.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:06 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
Plus if F9 Revenue Management has even one competent analyst, they wont be taking much LAS traffic at all.

If that's where folk want to go and if it helps to fill the planes - especially in winter - I can't think why not.

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freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:29 pm

We also don't know where the jet will go after it gets to DEN. When Piedmont flew their westbound route out of SBN to their hub in DAY they went to LAX with the airplane and loads were very good especially with passengers from SBN going to LAX and they did that with a B737-400.

F9 revenue management knows what they are doing . Operating the SBN-DEN route with a 99 seat E190 is not cost productive now fuel wise. It is better to spread thew costs over the extra 38 or so seats of the A319. F9 is also starting this serve during the heart of the Notre Dame football season and also ski season.

Using the A319 also gets them around the Republic competitive scope clause with United.

I also think that F9 by using the A319 is also going after SBN connecting traffic to the west coast and also DFW and IAH.

We shall see how this all pans out after they get started.

Allegiant has already proven that mainline can work at SBN and I also feel that next year some Delta flights out of SBN will also go back top mainline flying with the addition of the B717.
 
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:37 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
That last is probably a consideration.

It always surprises me how well Frontier does out of DTW, at least in terms of loads. In February, for example, the average l/f was 95%. In March (the latest numbers I've seen, the l/f was over 90%.

I doubt they want to fool around was that

F9 is almost always the cheapest fare when going to West Coast markets, connecting through DEN.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:41 pm

I don't know how many $79.00 seats they are going to have for sale, but the first flight is on the home weekend of the Notre Dame-Stanford game and that Airbus is going to be packed. Also the flight out Sunday morning will be packed as well with folks going home to California. This service will also do well on the weekend Notre Dame plays Brigham Young.
 
toltommy
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:28 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 18):
I doubt that F9 is getting a lot of traffic out of DTW that comes up from TOL. Delta definitely, but probably not F9.

Every airline serving DTW benefits from TOL leakage. F9 may benefit well because the TOL market has been conditioned to expect unsustainably low fares....
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:50 am

The 79.00 fares are already gone for the Notre Dame weekend.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:18 am

F9 for SBN-DFW is cheaper at the regular F9 fare than the competitors fare to Chicago.
 
flyinryan99
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:36 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 29):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 18):
I doubt that F9 is getting a lot of traffic out of DTW that comes up from TOL. Delta definitely, but probably not F9.

Every airline serving DTW benefits from TOL leakage. F9 may benefit well because the TOL market has been conditioned to expect unsustainably low fares....

Delta for sure gets a lot of it but there is actually quite a bit of O/D DEN-TOL. I remember doing 20 ppd alone on TZ when we ran flights through MDW. They may not draw a lot from TOL, but they sure as hell draw a lot from DEN to TOL.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 27):
F9 is almost always the cheapest fare when going to West Coast markets, connecting through DEN.

  

Which is why F9 could theoretically work in TOL, but they would again compete with themselves in DTW and if they are making a profit there, they would just dilute their profits...not smart.

Their director of revenue management came from another well known LCC and he knows which markets will produce. I think F9 is in good hands with him, although it won't benefit my home airport. Hell, nothing will.....I wouldn't doubt SBN going daily during the summer to more of a schedule like GRR. The primary reason may be for crew rest, but I'm sure it releives some pressure on gate space for that morning arrival rush in DEN.
 
smoot4208
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 3:39 am

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 32):
Which is why F9 could theoretically work in TOL, but they would again compete with themselves in DTW and if they are making a profit there, they would just dilute their profits...not smart.

Unfortunately, I think F9 learned their lesson in LGB about what it did to SNA and LAX. While I think both FNT and TOL could work to DEN if it was F9's only service to the area; but with F9 in DTW, I'm afraid neither would be viable options without destroying the DTW route.

I'm skeptical as to why F9 supported TOL's application in the first place as they knew they already served DTW and that adding DEN-TOL would kill DTW yields.
 
milesrich
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:46 am

It's been years, but UA did a good business in SBN, until they decided that SBN was too close to ORD and pulled their flights to SBN from Chicago, but in order to stay in the market introduced DEN-SBN flights. They didn't last too long, and these probably won't either.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:29 am

milesrich said:

"It's been years, but UA did a good business in SBN, until they decided that SBN was too close to ORD and pulled their flights to SBN from Chicago, but in order to stay in the market introduced DEN-SBN flights. They didn't last too long, and these probably won't either."

Times have changed, I think these flights will last. An A319 aircraft is more fuel efficient than the old B727-100 that United operated. United pulled their flights from SBN-ORD and replaced them with Air Wisconsin flights because of a bad decision by then President Richard Ferris to sell the B737-200 aircraft and then lease them back several years later for outrageous prices. Lot of airlines farmed out their short haul flights to the so-called express carriers etc. Well times have changed and things are coming full circle. The 50-pax regional jet is to expensive to operate in todays fuel environment. Frontier and Delta and USAir know this. That is why Delta is obtaining the B717 from Southwest Airlines. That is why mainline Delta jets will be back in South Bend in the future. Frontier, whose parent company is Republic Airways also operates both E190 99-pax jets for Frontier (which were originally proposed for SBN service) and E170 70-pax jets for United. As United Express occasionally flies SBN-ORD with the E170 jets, which is a jet capable of flying SBN-DEN , the United mainline pilot's scope clause would have prevented Frontier from operating with E190's if United Express jumped on the route first or vice versa. Frontier operating the Airbus effectively eliminated the competition. Now if United want's to operate the route to stay competitive they have to operate it with mainline aircraft and their cost's to do so are a lot higher than Frontier's.

When Piedmont flew full size jets out of South Bend to LAX via their hub in Dayton, Ohio their loads were excellent. I'm sure the route planning department at Frontier had this data before they ever made this decision to come to SBN.

By the way if Allegiant can fill full sized jets out of South Bend both directions on all their routes with no problems Frontier should have no problem either. Checking various fares for these flights I found that Frontier is competitive with other airlines service to ORD or MDW and when you factor in the cost's of rental cars or parking at ORD or MDW the South Bend Airport beats both of them.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:35 am

Since United operated this route in the 70's Yield Management has gotten better at all airlines. We didn't have all the sophisticated computers and programs we have now that make this possible. Frontier can do quite well on this route. Advertising and word of mouth also sets off a snowball effect one only has to look to Allegiant to see this.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:57 am

I certainly hope they weren't using "data" from the 70s & 80s to make their decisions. Completely different environment back then and just because airplanes were full then, has no indication of the financial viability of a route today.

Anyway, F9 flying into SBN is like going into an airport like FNT or CAK. They are going into an airport that is an alternative to larger airports (ORD, MDW) that pull in from a relatively large catchment area that currently does not have a Low Cost Carrier with easy access to the West Coast.

This route isn't meant for the business traveler, but its meant to capture the vast amount of leisure / VFR traffic connecting onward to west coast destinations over DEN.
 
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tjwgrr
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:03 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
It always surprises me how well Frontier does out of DTW, at least in terms of loads. In February, for example, the average l/f was 95%. In March (the latest numbers I've seen, the l/f was over 90%.
Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
DEN-IND seems to do well, still. I believe February and March (the latest I've seen) were both over 90% average l/f.

As long as you're at it, how does DEN-GRR do? Thx.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:54 pm

That's right yield management is much better that the 70's or 80's. SBN does have a fairly wide catchment area and also a rail link to part of that catchment area. Plus just like Allegiant, once the word gets out people will take these flights.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
If that's where folk want to go and if it helps to fill the planes - especially in winter - I can't think why not.

Because the LAS pax will be likely displacing higher revenue pax going elsewhere and F9 revenue will be diluted. Only if the LAS pax at G4 fares occupies a seat on both SBN-DEN-LAS that is otherwise empty will it be revenue enhancing. Remember there are two legs where dilution can occur, SBN-DEN and DEN-LAS.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier Announces DEN-SBN

Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:34 pm

Quoting tjwgrr (Reply 38):
As long as you're at it, how does DEN-GRR do? Thx.

DEN-GRR - February 88% and March 85%.

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