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787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:56 pm

Continuing the discussion from Part 5:

787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 5 (by LipeGIG Jun 26 2012 in Civil Aviation)
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Tue Jul 24, 2012 9:08 pm

So now it's looking like some of the Trent 1000 powered '87s are delayed because of the gear box issue. There are about 5 '87s for ANA and LAN that are ready to be delivered and have engines hanging off them but apparently need the new gear box.
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AirframeAS
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Tue Jul 24, 2012 9:13 pm

Does anyone here have any NEW updated pics of the first UA 787 other than the ones that show Obama touring on one?
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WarpSpeed
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Tue Jul 24, 2012 9:35 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 1):
There are about 5 '87s for ANA and LAN that are ready to be delivered and have engines hanging off them but apparently need the new gear box.

Its likely that the pacing of the fix will mirror that of ANA's sidelined 787s that await replacement parts from RR

Ironically, might AI's 787's be the next deliveries...

[Edited 2012-07-24 14:52:45]
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aeroblogger
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:37 am

From Indian aviation thread:

Quoting aeroblogger:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 179):
According to PTI the GoM is to take up the issue of the AI-Boeing compensation deal. I don't know what that means in terms of finally having these airplanes delivered or if it's just another cog in the bureaucratic wheel but there it is. I'm only guessing that they're going to make their recommedation yea or nay to the CCEA who will then give it their own yea or nay. Thank god for the free market system here or else nothing will ever get done.

http://www.ptinews.com/news/2819650_...orrow

There are approvals left before CCEA can make a decision, GoM being one of them. Currently, it is hoped that all approvals will be taken care of this week, so CCEA can take up the issue early next week

If CCEA approves the package, AI is hoping for delivery of 3 jets on Thursday or Friday.
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PHX787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 3:00 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
If CCEA approves the package, AI is hoping for delivery of 3 jets on Thursday or Friday.

Sounds good, but what's the likelihood of approval?
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 3:31 am

CCEA will approve the package. If they don't, things unravel as far as the negotiations are concerned. Boeing has enough on its plate without tying up completed aircraft waiting for a bloated bureaucratic to wheeze through their process.

AI 's survival is tied into becoming more efficient. These a/c are key to it so they'll eventually pull their heads out. If not, there are plenty of other airlines who'll take them off Boeing's hands.
 
sweair
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:18 am

GE is ahead of RR in fuel burn, the GE engine started at 3-2.7% over spec and T1000A started at 3-4% over. PIP1 for GE took more than 1.7% off the fuel burn, say with PIP one it is about 1% above spec. With Trent1000B RR is still about 2% above spec. Trent1000C will get it to about 1% above spec. GEs PIP2 should get the GEnx below spec, if it takes another 1.1% off the fuel burn.

PIP2 will be installed in 2013, it still has to get certified this year.

Why the GEnx on the 748 is harder to get to spec must be that it has a smaller fan and is a bleed engine?
 
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par13del
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 12:29 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 1):
So now it's looking like some of the Trent 1000 powered '87s are delayed because of the gear box issue.

If true, just to throw a plug in for those who speculated that the delayed deliveries was due to some unknown issue, most of the speculation did not seem malicious, but as usual, links for facts were lacking.

Highlights a point made in another thread, once the production ball starts rolling its diffucult to put GE engine frames in front of RR frames while the issue is resolved.
Does however raise a question, could one have both types in Washington but only one engine type in Charleston?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:05 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 8):
Does however raise a question, could one have both types in Washington but only one engine type in Charleston?

All CHS birds currently have GEnx power, so Boeing might be limiting CHS to GEnx 787-8 airframes to start, but I would expect CHS will eventually assemble frames with Trent 1000 power, as well.
 
WarpSpeed
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 3:59 pm

Boeing just wrapped up its earnings call. I could not listen to the entire call but was able to pick up the following tid-bits on the 787:

-Production rate still planned to hit 5/month by end of 2012 - 10/month by end of 2013
-Delivery guidance for the 787 remains at 35-42 frames for 2012
-Customer demand is driving monthly delivery rates
-11 delivered to date with an up-tick in delivery rate expected for the remainder of the year.  
-50% will be delivered out of the EMC/ 50% from the line
- EMC to be active for the next 1 1/2 years (maybe longer)
-RR engine issue will not impact delivery guidance.
-When asked if the deliveries could exceed guidance the response was "We have a good plan to meet guidance"
-Supply chain: challenges but no show-stoppers. Aft fuselage remains a concern for production ramp-up
-The 787-10 is shaping up for possible board approval by end of 2012/early 2013, to have strong demand and will be the "perfect" next phase of the 787 program  

Please provide correction, amplifications, and/or new info.

[Edited 2012-07-25 09:11:23]
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sunrisevalley
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 4:10 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 10):
Please provide correction, amplifications, and/or new info.

I concur with your take on what was said. I thought the language and voice inflection on the reply to the 787-10 question was extremely positive.
 
tarheelwings
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:21 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 10):
11 delivered to date with an up-tick in delivery rate expected for the remainder of the year.

Haven't there been 12 787s delivered this year?

Overall a very optimistic outlook for the 787, let's hope there are no surprises for the rest of the year   
 
hiflyer
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:18 pm

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):
Does anyone here have any NEW updated pics of the first UA 787 other than the ones that show Obama touring on one?

I'll second that!! First ones for a US carrier sorta up there on the want to know for a 'few' folks.....


 
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):

Does anyone here have any NEW updated pics of the first UA 787 other than the ones that show Obama touring on one?

LN53 was spotted at the fuel dock: http://www.flickr.com/photos/moonm/7635119938/sizes/o/in/photostream/
Next stop is the paint shop I guess.

In other news: LN49 is back in full Ethiopian livery: http://lockerz.com/s/228210449
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
Fyano773
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:50 pm

Now that AM and Boeing have unveiled the purchase of 10 Dreamliners, several articles mention that the company has already secured 9 788 orders and leases. As far as I know, only 7 planes have been announced and the lease planes coming from ILFC.

Recently Air Seychelles cancelled LN 35307 and LN 35309, also from ILFC.

Do you believe these LNs have been reassigned to AM?
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:04 pm

12 delivered so far and if looking at Uresh layout I count 12 light green coloured frames, frames that have passed production or rework. That would make 24. Add another 11 for the remaining year it is at 35 frames.
 
b78710
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:47 pm

When will the first -9 be flown/built?
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:58 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 10):
-Delivery guidance for the 787 remains at 35-42 frames for 2012

Was that the actual guidance, or was it still 70-85 787s and 747-8s with roughly half of each?
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:21 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 16):
Add another 11 for the remaining year it is at 35 frames.

That is looking at deliveries from a production standpoint. If there is one interesting insight I gleaned from today's earnings call (and the AI saga) it is that the customers ultimately pace deliveries.

Boeing can build a complete 787, but if the end-user is not prepared to (or can't) take delivery, then there will be no fly-away. Seems counter-intuitive after years of delays and with such a huge backlog, but Boeing Mgt said today that low deliveries since May were at the request of customers.

Now, this may be nuanced language to pin delivery delays on customers not willing to take frames as they demanded software updates, Package B Trents or because of the gear-box issue, but nonetheless, the customer had the final say-so. Financing and operational preparedness on the customer side can also factor into deliveries timing. Having witnessed so many delays, airlines may not be in a position to earnestly prepare for a delivery until it is absolutely certain to occur.
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:24 pm

Quoting dynamicsguy (Reply 18):
Was that the actual guidance, or was it still 70-85 787s and 747-8s with roughly half of each?

I heard the 35-42 787 frames to be delivered in the context of an answer to an analyst question.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:37 pm

I got a new post up reviewing today's news about the 787.
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:15 pm

Some August delivery info :

JA803A ZA100 34485/7 2nd week.
JA813A ZA118 34521/67 5th week.
JA814A ZA119 34493/69 5th week.
ET-AOQ ZA262 34745/49 4th week.
JA828J ZA182 34838/70 5th week.
A7-BCB ZA461 38320/58 3rd week.
CC-BBA ZA538 38472/68 5th week.

  
 
ZKOJH
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:38 pm

hopefully they have started making some progress on the 787-9 ? , With first hand over to NZ in early June 2014,

Good news overall on the 787 program, let's keep it going   !
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SCL767
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:41 pm

Quoting RobK (Reply 22):
CC-BBA ZA538 38472/68 5th week.

Great to hear that CC-BBA will join LAN's fleet late next month as expected!
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:08 am

Quoting RobK (Reply 22):
JA803A ZA100 34485/7 2nd week.
JA813A ZA118 34521/67 5th week.
JA814A ZA119 34493/69 5th week.
ET-AOQ ZA262 34745/49 4th week.
JA828J ZA182 34838/70 5th week.
A7-BCB ZA461 38320/58 3rd week.

CC-BBA ZA538 38472/68 5th week.

Great stuff, thanks Rob. Interesting that JA815A (LN 66) was out before many of the airplanes you listed but is not listed to be delivered in August.

And if AI gets the ok to take delivery and then add three maybe four more to that total.

[Edited 2012-07-25 18:11:01]
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:19 am

Again, take it more as a guide than fact. That *is* the current plan but JA803A has missed yet another planned B1 as has the LAN which was due to fly yesterday (25th) and didn't make it. JA803A is looking tight to make Aug 8 delivery imho...
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:20 am

Too bad nobody asked the question if they were on track to meet the 787 OEW goal at LN90. For those of you who watch this scene closely, was the 50:50 FAL :EMC for the balance of the year what you expected.
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:37 am

With 12 deliveries so far that leaves ~24 to meet guidance and therefore 12:12 between FAL:EMC if there was a 50/50 split. From RobK's list above there are 4 from the FAL and 3 from the EMC, add AI's 2 from the FAL and 2 from the EMC and at the end of August or early September it could be 6:5. I doubt there would be any issue with the FAL making up the other 6 in four months, assuming availability of engines is adequate.

With the number of aircraft in EMC now (8 to 10, is that correct?) it appears a 50:50 mix would have been expected.


[edit: Another angle is that the 12 delivered so far are all from the EMC so half of 35 to 42 would only leave 6-9 required for the rest of the year with 5 likely in August/September]

[Edited 2012-07-25 18:43:42]
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:53 am

Quoting RobK (Reply 26):
Again, take it more as a guide than fact. That *is* the current plan but JA803A has missed yet another planned B1 as has the LAN which was due to fly yesterday (25th) and didn't make it. JA803A is looking tight to make Aug 8 delivery imho...

Need to keep hope alive.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:55 am

Quoting Dan23 (Reply 28):
With 12 deliveries so far that leaves ~24 to meet guidance and therefore 12:12 between FAL:EMC if there was a 50/50 split. From RobK's list above there are 4 from the FAL and 3 from the EMC, add AI's 2 from the FAL and 2 from the EMC and at the end of August or early September it could be 6:5. I doubt there would be any issue with the FAL making up the other 6 in four months, assuming availability of engines is adequate.

It's 11 deliveries so far.
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:59 am

Quoting RobK (Reply 22):
JA803A ZA100 34485/7 2nd week.

Fresh info received for this one, now no B1 date set at all - just a blank space - so Aug 8 delivery unlikely. Seems to be broken this one.   
 
PHX787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:21 am

Quoting RobK (Reply 22):
Some August delivery info :

Still no info on the AI stuff huh.

August looks to be a good month for the 787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:32 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 32):
Still no info on the AI stuff huh.

All show blank delivery dates, presumably as they're waiting for India to pull their fingers out of their arses.
 
aklrno
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:45 am

Quoting b78710 (Reply 17):

When will the first -9 be flown/built?
Quoting ZKOJH (Reply 23):

hopefully they have started making some progress on the 787-9 ? , With first hand over to NZ in early June 2014,

Somewhere I recently saw an article that said the first -9 would be LN126. If that fits in with the current rate thats about 56 aircraft away, about 1 year's worth. So maybe it flies 1 year from now. I guess 6-9 months should be enough to certify a derivative? That puts delivery around the end of Q1 2014? All guesses on my part. I have no real info except LN 126.
 
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:29 am

Quoting aklrno (Reply 34):

IIRC, the first 787-9 should be entering FAL Q4 12 as parts of the first -9 are already in production. I asked this in either the 4th or 5th thread and I believe that was the answer I got.
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Someone83
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:34 am

Didn't the first aircraft of the line that didn't have to go through EMC have 300 unfinished jobs? According to Boeing/Allthings787 LN70 had 160 unfinished job, so that's a nice improvement in a short time
 
mattcawby
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:42 am

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 36):
Didn't the first aircraft of the line that didn't have to go through EMC have 300 unfinished jobs?

That was on June 4, it hasn't flown yet so they must be 300 big jobs.
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aeroblogger
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 8:04 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 32):
Still no info on the AI stuff huh.

Delivery date cannot be confirmed until CCEA approval is officially completed.

I'm hoping that it's just a formality (and it is likely to be considering that AI's board has already approved the package), but some idiotic minister might get the brilliant idea of rejecting for some reason, and then we're back to square one...

Next week still looking promising though  
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tarheelwings
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 30):
It's 11 deliveries so far.

Isn't it 12?

LN41 1/12/2012
LN9 1/14/2012
LN33 3/25/2012
LN23 3/25/2012
LN40 3/29/2012
LN42 4/14/2012
LN37 4/25/2012
LN38 4/25/2012
LN47 6/20/2012
LN48 6/24/2012
LN56 6/30/2012
LN51 7/17/2012
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:04 pm

Quoting tarheelwings (Reply 39):
Isn't it 12?

LN41 1/12/2012
LN9 1/14/2012
LN33 3/25/2012
LN23 3/25/2012
LN40 3/29/2012
LN42 4/14/2012
LN37 4/25/2012
LN38 4/25/2012
LN47 6/20/2012
LN48 6/24/2012
LN56 6/30/2012
LN51 7/17/2012

I stand corrected, it is 12. I was thinking about 1st half deliveries for some reason. That was 11.
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WarpSpeed
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:01 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 36):
According to Boeing/Allthings787 LN70 had 160 unfinished job, so that's a nice improvement in a short time

Further to your point, I've read that it is normal for a frame to leave the FAL with unfinished jobs; even in mature programs. As such, with "only" 160 unfinished jobs, Boeing may be very close to having production properly synced. Good progress any way you look at it.

Going forward, the planned ramp-up from 3.5 frames/month to 10/month over the next 18 months will certainly test the system. While the KCHS and Surge Line FALs will help in this regard, there is a complex production eco-system prior to these points that must match the step-change. Interesting times ahead.
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brindabella
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:29 pm

Great to see them rolling out at last, however:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 40):
Quoting tarheelwings (Reply 39):
Isn't it 12?

LN41 1/12/2012
LN9 1/14/2012
LN33 3/25/2012
LN23 3/25/2012
LN40 3/29/2012
LN42 4/14/2012
LN37 4/25/2012
LN38 4/25/2012
LN47 6/20/2012
LN48 6/24/2012
LN56 6/30/2012
LN51 7/17/2012

Help! I look at those LNs & fail to detect any pattern at all! Can anybody enlighten me, just a little?
It looks like someone was throwing darts at the board. Is looking for a pattern the fundamental
mistake that I'm making?

 Wow!

cheers Bill    
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:55 pm

Quoting brindabella (Reply 42):
Is looking for a pattern the fundamental mistake that I'm making?

Yes.  

Later-build (higher LN number) 787s take less time to be brought to "production standard" with all the necessary changes incorporated so Boeing has been concentrating on those airframes.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:11 am

Matt Cawby reports that ZA100 to have its B-1
flight on 7/27 at 1500Z. That's 7AM local time.
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United787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:18 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 44):
Matt Cawby reports that ZA100 to have its B-1
flight on 7/27 at 1500Z. That's 7AM local time.

Eighteen minutes ago and no sign on FlightAware...
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:43 pm

ZA100 (JA803a) to fly at about 10AM Seattle time

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/B...0/history/20120727/1700Z/KPAE/KMWH

First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:30 pm

ZA100 is up in the air. Hopefully we'll start seeing the other 87s at Everett at Charleston flying within the next one week.

[Edited 2012-07-27 12:26:13]
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WarpSpeed
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 47):
Za100 is up in the air.

She may have been reworked from nose to tail and weighted down with extra fasteners, but I hope the first flight of ZA100 represents a milestone in getting those early build '87s up and out!
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MarSciGuy
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 6

Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:00 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 46):
First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks.

What exactly does B-1 mean?
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