TWA85
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Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 4:55 pm

Hello,

Will there be any JFK expansion for AA anytime soon? Yes AA is in bankruptcy, however aside from DFW and MIA, JFK is the next most important hub in their Cornerstone Strategy. Is there any chance they might add more international serice to the likes of FRA, AMS, PVG etc. or domestic feeder services from the likes of BUF, ROC, SYR, BDL, PVD etc? AA used to have extensive feeder services from throughout the North East to JFK and for some reason or another they discontinued much of this service.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:03 pm

I just don't see it happening. Europe is in the dump, so that makes no sense. DL is also expanding its presence aggressively, and has plenty of short-haul domestic flying (which largely feeds its international operations). Why would AA want to compete there? Add in the fact that B6 has already diluted yields in dozens of domestic markets as well as the Caribbean, and it looks like a bloodbath.

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter):
AA used to have extensive feeder services from throughout the North East to JFK and for some reason or another they discontinued much of this service.

Because it's unprofitable. AA is in the process of selling American Eagle, which is a high-CASM fleet. Makes no sense to send them on JFK-low yielding domestic flights, especially against B6's low-CASM fleet.

JetBluefan1
 
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STT757
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:05 pm

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter):
Will there be any JFK expansion for AA anytime soon?



No slots = no growth. JFK is slot restricted.

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter):
. or domestic feeder services fro
m the likes of BUF, ROC, SYR, BDL, PVD etc?



AA used to serve all those places from JFK but dropped them, they lost the slots that supported those flights.
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spiritair97
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 6:29 pm

Quoting jetbluefan1 (Reply 1):

What would the future hold for American Eagle if (when?) it is sold?
 
aajfksjubklyn
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 6:33 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
No slots = no growth. JFK is slot restricted.

AA is sitting on some good slots at JFK.....AA has plenty of room to grow in non-slot time throughout the day. Many of AA's premium slots are being used by JFK-FLL, JFK-LAS, JFK-TPA etc...
 
roseflyer
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 6:46 pm

Quoting aajfksjubklyn (Reply 4):
Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
No slots = no growth. JFK is slot restricted.

AA is sitting on some good slots at JFK.....AA has plenty of room to grow in non-slot time throughout the day. Many of AA's premium slots are being used by JFK-FLL, JFK-LAS, JFK-TPA etc...

Routes to Florida are what sell and can maintain high load factors. Regional routes can't sustain yearround traffic without a long haul connecting bank. JFK is a tough market because the high yield traffic is out of LGA. Outside of Florida and routes to the west coast, JFK is hard to make profits from on domestic routes since the loyal frequent travelers and business travel with the yields that go with it prefer LGA. At JFK there is low yield traffic combined with long haul connections.
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mogandoCI
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:06 pm

Quoting aajfksjubklyn (Reply 4):
AA is sitting on some good slots at JFK.....AA has plenty of room to grow in non-slot time throughout the day. Many of AA's premium slots are being used by JFK-FLL, JFK-LAS, JFK-TPA etc...

But if all those were to move to early afternoon to clear space during rush hours, even lower yielding pax mix would come into play. My domestic travel is either early in the day to enjoy a full day at the destination, or early evening so I could finish a full day of work first. 11am dep and 2pm arr are tweeners.

AA's NYC-LAS service is already down to 2-3x daily. Moving them all to off-peak hours would worsen RASM further to a point that it may drop to 1x service (just like SAN).
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:14 pm

There are some slots to be had at JFK.

I fly there everyday and the place is once again a departure ghost town between 10 am and 2pm.

So either the slots are available, or the airlines that have them are slot squatting.

Either way, AA has well over 100 departures last year and are down to 91 this year. So they do have the ability to add flights.

To answer the original question: big fat nope.

As a matter of fact, once the 321s start flying the transcons, they will actually be shrinking pax wise by a significant amount.

AA was banking on a B6 codeshare for JFK...and B6 has reportedly told them to take a long walk off a short pier.

I imagine if AA was to merge with US, JFK would be shrunk down to the O and D markets necessary that can not be served out of LGA.
JFK would look something like this:
MIA
SJU
SDQ
CLT
PHX
LAX/SFO
DFW-1 or 2
ORD 1 or 2
LHR
NRT
Maybe CDG
Token S America


If they emerge stand alone, they will make a play for B6. If that doesn't work...not much will change
 
aajfksjubklyn
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:44 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 6):
AA's NYC-LAS service is already down to 2-3x daily. Moving them all to off-peak hours would worsen RASM further to a point that it may drop to 1x service (just like SAN).

Yes, one LAS drops, and it's used for a seasonal EU route (Ie: Manchester, Rome etc)
 
N62NA
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:08 pm

Quoting jetbluefan1 (Reply 1):
DL is also expanding its presence aggressively, and has plenty of short-haul domestic flying (which largely feeds its international operations). Why would AA want to compete there?

So it's a given that people connecting through JFK onward to Europe / South America / Japan on a USA carrier must fly both legs with DL? The reason you give isn't at all persuasive.

It would make quite a bit of sense for AA to operate flights from upstate NY / Pennsylvania that feed its international flights. If they stick to cities that they already have a presence in (SYR for example) a single flight each day (maybe route the plane ORD-SYR-JFK-SYR-ORD) would provide passengers flying internationally from these areas a much needed additional choice.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:17 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 7):
I imagine if AA was to merge with US, JFK would be shrunk down to the O and D markets necessary that can not be served out of LGA.
JFK would look something like this:
MIA
SJU
SDQ
CLT
PHX
LAX/SFO
DFW-1 or 2
ORD 1 or 2
LHR
NRT
Maybe CDG
Token S America

The one teeny tiny issue with this approach is that if AA drops all the non-essential European services, those slots would be gone and immediately gobbled up with DL/B6, further weakening AA's NYC presence.

What AA needs is to get out of their comfort zone and start competing for NYC mindshare marketshare and walletshare.
 
N62NA
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:22 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 10):
What AA needs is to get out of their comfort zone and start competing for NYC mindshare marketshare and walletshare.

Right, especially for international. This whole idea of "well, DL feeds their international banks with domestic flights so AA shouldn't" is not a capitalist mindset at all and is rather defeatist. AA has a beautiful, capable facility at JFK and they should utilize it to the max.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:31 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 9):
So it's a given that people connecting through JFK onward to Europe / South America / Japan on a USA carrier must fly both legs with DL? The reason you give isn't at all persuasive.

It would make quite a bit of sense for AA to operate flights from upstate NY / Pennsylvania that feed its international flights. If they stick to cities that they already have a presence in (SYR for example) a single flight each day (maybe route the plane ORD-SYR-JFK-SYR-ORD) would provide passengers flying internationally from these areas a much needed additional choice.

My point is that Europe is already flooded with capacity from NY, why try to add more capacity when the European economy is clearly heading into a deep recession? I agree that a token daily flight to smaller domestic markets makes sense to feed the existing European flights, but not to try to capture the O&D market. DL and B6 have that well covered, and LGA is highly preferred for most of these markets. If anything, AA should use its LGA slots to capitalize on short/medium-haul domestic flying to high-yield business destinations...JFK is low yield and low volume (except for Florida).
 
TWA85
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:39 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 9):
It would make quite a bit of sense for AA to operate flights from upstate NY / Pennsylvania that feed its international flights. If they stick to cities that they already have a presence in (SYR for example) a single flight each day (maybe route the plane ORD-SYR-JFK-SYR-ORD) would provide passengers flying internationally from these areas a much needed additional choice.



This would make a lot of sense. TWA used to operate many of its JFK feeder routes as tag-ons to hub-and-spoke routes from STL. An example is a flight like ABQ-STL-DCA-JFK-DCA-STL-ABQ. The flight would arrive at JFK during the early-mid afternoon hours in time for passengers to connect to the late afternoon-evening departures to Europe, then the flight would depart from JFK for the return sector in the mid-late afternoon right after passengers connected from the European arrivals.
 
N62NA
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting jetbluefan1 (Reply 12):
I agree that a token daily flight to smaller domestic markets makes sense to feed the existing European flights, but not to try to capture the O&D market. DL and B6 have that well covered, and LGA is highly preferred for most of these markets. If anything, AA should use its LGA slots to capitalize on short/medium-haul domestic flying to high-yield business destinations

Glad we agree! Also... if the dollar continues to get stronger and the Euro weaker, that may stimulate more USA to Europe traffic.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:46 pm

"those slots would be gone and immediately gobbled up with DL/B6, further weakening AA's NYC presence."

Would they...B6 seems to be shrinking at JFK. DL is flat or slightly down


"TWA used to operate many of its JFK feeder routes as tag-ons to hub-and-spoke routes from STL. An example is a flight like ABQ-STL-DCA-JFK-DCA-STL-ABQ. The "


People don't fly like that anymore and airlines don't fly like that anymore.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:56 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 15):
"those slots would be gone and immediately gobbled up with DL/B6, further weakening AA's NYC presence."

Would they...B6 seems to be shrinking at JFK. DL is flat or slightly down

I always feel that US airlines and slots are : grab first, babysit now, and figure out strategy later.

e.g. DL could use them to launch more Asian and African service.
 
boeing773er
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:09 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
No slots = no growth. JFK is slot restricted.

only during peak hours. but I don't see AA growing in JFK because DL is growing rapidly, B6 is feeding their flights, and expansion with AE would be relatively pointless.
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jfk777
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 7):
JFK would look something like this:
MIA
SJU
SDQ
CLT
PHX
LAX/SFO
DFW-1 or 2
ORD 1 or 2
LHR
NRT
Maybe CDG
Token S America

TO that abortively short list you can add LAX and SFO for about 12 to 15 flights daily together. Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo & Rio for a daily flight each by 777. More Caribean cities like Barbados, St. Maarten and Puerto Plata. BRU, ZRH, MAD, BCN and FCO in Europe. A flight to Shanghai couls also happen.
 
point2point
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Thu Jul 26, 2012 11:10 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 11):
Right, especially for international. This whole idea of "well, DL feeds their international banks with domestic flights so AA shouldn't" is not a capitalist mindset at all and is rather defeatist. AA has a beautiful, capable facility at JFK and they should utilize it to the max.

I've always been curious as to why AA doesn't have at least one JFK-DEN flight to connect into it's evening banks (as well as get some O&D) in the way the DL does. I've flown on the DL midday (one and only on this route) DEN-JFK flight, and the 737 had been packed full on both of occasions that I've flown on it, and also on both instances, it seems that about a +70% of those on the flight are going to CDG, FCO, BCN, MXP, etc, or arriving from those on the JFK-DEN segment. DL gets a good amount of international pax from it JFK-DEN flight.

And even B6 isn't bothering here to help AA out, cancelling their midday flight a few years ago that could have helped out AA with connects.

Oh well.... maybe that much business isn't there, or maybe they let the DEN folks transfer at ORD or DFW, or even use the BA DEN-LHR flight for these connects? At any rate, hard to determine if they're leaving money on the table here, or that they've determined that the money left on the table just isn't worth it? Probably the latter if I had to guess. But this is at least one market where if they wanted to compete with DL, it's there....


 
 
SANFan
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RE: Will AA Be Expanding At JFK Anytime Soon?

Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:11 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 7):
I imagine if AA was to merge with US, JFK would be shrunk down to the O and D markets necessary that can not be served out of LGA.
JFK would look something like this:
MIA
SJU
SDQ
CLT
PHX
LAX/SFO
DFW-1 or 2
ORD 1 or 2
LHR
NRT
Maybe CDG
Token S America

You think SAN and SEA are served from LGA or else you don't think there's any local traffic in those markets? Wrong on both counts.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 6):
AA's NYC-LAS service is already down to 2-3x daily. Moving them all to off-peak hours would worsen RASM further to a point that it may drop to 1x service (just like SAN).

Remember that SAN is served once daily but with a 767 these days; if the equipment were down-gauged, I feel quite certain that the second daily nonstop would start again.

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