traindoc
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The Decimation Of CVG!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:13 pm

I know that there is a post on the loss of Comair, but I think that this topic needs it's own post. The bottom line for CVG is this: Total PAX for 2006-2007, 21.5 million, versus 8.3 million for 2011-2012. This is for the year ending April 30th, not the calendar year. Regardless of which 12 month period used for comparison, the change is staggering! This data comes from the July 28/29 issue of the Wall Street Journal.

For about ten years I flew DL primarily and racked up about 800,000 miles. Flying thru CVG was always more enjoyable than ATL, just due to its smaller size and easier getting around. I interpret the data that almost 2/3 of the pax at CVG, at its peak, were connecting. Now most of the pax must be O & D.
 
captainstefan
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:20 pm

I don't know other impact it will have, but NRSAs will now often have one less option when trying weird routings to get home.
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flyguy89
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:27 pm

Actually we've been discussing CVG for quite a while now in the following thread:

CVG Updates: Concourse A And Other Misc. News (by flyguy89 Jun 21 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Updates and such have been talked about if you care to take a look.
 
toltommy
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting captainstefan (Reply 1):
I don't know other impact it will have, but NRSAs will now often have one less option when trying weird routings to get home.

Most of Comair's flying is now based in hubs other than CVG, and Delta has already stated that they intend to have other carriers doing the flying Comair does today. Sadly, if anything, it will make non-revving to/from/thru CVG easier because the Comair crews that got forced to another base won't be commuting anymore.
 
G500
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:45 pm

I've always felt that some cities are not large enough, or economically important enough to be designated "Hubs". Airlines designated these cities hubs when those cities were booming, but times have changed and some of those cities have not kept up

CVG, STL, MEM, PIT are perfect examples...My guess, CLE will suffer the same fate, its just a matter of time
 
spiritair97
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:46 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 4):

In my mind, SLC fits in there, too. It is a large city but it never seemed like a city that was "hub" material. Isn't most of their flying in and out of there (on DL) made up of CRJs?
 
PITrules
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:56 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 4):
or economically important enough to be designated "Hubs". Airlines designated these cities hubs when those cities were booming, but times have changed and some of those cities have not kept up

CVG, STL, MEM, PIT are perfect examples...

I won't speak for the other cities, but Pittsburgh has never been stronger economically during the past 50 years than it is today.
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steex
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 5):
In my mind, SLC fits in there, too. It is a large city but it never seemed like a city that was "hub" material. Isn't most of their flying in and out of there (on DL) made up of CRJs?

SLC probably isn't ideal as a typical hub city in a vacuum, but it doesn't exist in a vacuum. SLC and DEN are the only viable hub locations for serving the intermountain west, with SLC also being far enough west to somewhat serve north-south flows along the west coast. Part of what sealed the fate for STL, for example, was it being almost entirely redundant with hubs like ORD, DTW, MSP, DFW and arguably MEM, CVG, and MKE (though also in weak hub cities themselves). CVG sits sandwiched between DTW and ATL, and PIT was extremely close to the east coast hubs. SLC doesn't really have that problem.
 
G500
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:03 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 5):
In my mind, SLC fits in there, too. It is a large city but it never seemed like a city that was "hub" material

agree, Delta needed a West Coast hub at the time, and if they decide to build up LAX further, that might come at the expense of SLC.

sorry if I offend anyone, but CLE, MEM and SLC should not be as "hubs"
 
Beechtobus
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:06 am

Will Southwest ever come to Cincy? Im guessing that CVG is the largest city/market in the lower 48 not served by Southwest or Airtran.
 
BMI727
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:09 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 8):
sorry if I offend anyone, but CLE, MEM and SLC should not be as "hubs"

They were fine in the days when oil was cheap, there were a lot of airlines, and everyone was making money. But then throw in 9/11, a recession, and increasing fuel costs and something has to give. Airlines went out of business and merged and the whole industry was faced with forced rightsizing. And when that happened the hubs that will be successful are the ones with strong local markets, like Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, et. al. The marginal markets like St. Louis, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh went by the wayside. Airlines can either fill more seats or get more money for the seats they have flying to larger markets and the competitive environment no longer allows for hubs in midsize markets.
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:10 am

It is really sad i hate to see CVG as it is but i also have not been there with concourse A in use so hopefully it feels a little less depressing.

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 5):
In my mind, SLC fits in there, too. It is a large city but it never seemed like a city that was "hub" material. Isn't most of their flying in and out of there (on DL) made up of CRJs?
SLC is a very unique market compared to those cities. It has larger o&d than those cities and is a much younger and faster growing city. Most of the growth has been recent and its future potential and o&d numbers only look better. What it lacks in population it makes up for with an unusually strong economy, low unemployment, significant tourism that really increases it numbers and businesses that love being located there and will fly people in/out and support flights. SLC has been profitable for Delta for years consistantly. It is not at risk of a dehub situation delta makes real cash there and its so consitantly strong and low competition Delta is extremely happy hence why it will defend to protect it.

Delta has alot of mainline including widebody fligts at SLC and wants more. SLC is very limited by its terminal currently. Alot of the gates can only accomidate CRJ-200s so delta has to fly alot of that plane type. The main banks are totally full with mainline or larger RJs. The new terminals that are being built are designed to solve this exact problem for Delta.

[Edited 2012-07-29 18:16:48]
 
brilondon
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:15 am

CVG is too close to DTW to be kept as a viable hub airport. I would not be surprised if it were to lose even more flights.
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MAV88
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:50 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 4):
I've always felt that some cities are not large enough, or economically important enough to be designated "Hubs". Airlines designated these cities hubs when those cities were booming, but times have changed and some of those cities have not kept up

CVG, STL, MEM, PIT are perfect examples...My guess, CLE will suffer the same fate, its just a matter of time
Quoting g500 (Reply 4):
I've always felt that some cities are not large enough, or economically important enough to be designated "Hubs". Airlines designated these cities hubs when those cities were booming, but times have changed and some of those cities have not kept up

CVG, STL, MEM, PIT are perfect examples...My guess, CLE will suffer the same fate, its just a matter of time

Cincinnati was very fortunate to have DL establish the level of operations they did. Fact is, the city is not that big, the metro area is not that big, it's not a tourist destination and the business market there is not even a top 12 or 13 in this country.

You have DTW and MSP close by that will and has serve as the hub for the region.
 
flyguy89
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:00 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 12):
CVG is too close to DTW to be kept as a viable hub airport. I would not be surprised if it were to lose even more flights.

I would expect CVG to stay about where it is with 120-150 flights for the near-term. DL is stuck with the lease and bond payments for Concourses B and C until 2025, so their operation probably will pretty much exist to mitigate the costs they would otherwise be faced with if they completely left and just moth-balled the facilities and kept making payments.

Quoting PITrules (Reply 6):
I won't speak for the other cities, but Pittsburgh has never been stronger economically during the past 50 years than it is today.

   A perfect example of how you don't need a hub to be an economically healthy, vibrant, and growing city...also look at Raleigh and Austin.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 9):
Will Southwest ever come to Cincy? Im guessing that CVG is the largest city/market in the lower 48 not served by Southwest or Airtran.

I would absolutely bet good money that in the near future Southwest will transfer their DAY operation to CVG. People had said previously Southwest wouldn't come because they "ring" CVG at CMH, IND, and SDF, yet they have entered the DAY market which pretty much blows that assumption out of the water that they're not interested in the Cincinnati area. Dayton is, unfortunately, a dying city with a sour economy and shrinking population, conversely the Cincinnati area is much more healthy economically and has a growing population, so long-term Southwest has every reason to come to Cincy and little reason to remain in DAY, especially with DL's diminishing presence here at CVG.
 
airlinewatcher1
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:27 am

I would love to see any low-cost carrier start service at CVG. But I'll believe it when I see it. Nobody seems too interested. The closest thing they've got right now is F9/Apple Vacations to Cancun and Punta Cana. A non-stop to DEN would seem like a logical next step to try out. Also, most of the flights at CVG are not mainline, but regional/express. I would like to see that change, but I don't see that changing any time soon either.

I believe SLC is safe as a Delta hub, as least for now. It's not a huge hub, but it's big enough and it fills a niche for them. They wouldn't be getting ready to revamp the entire airport with Delta's support if the hub wasn't working.

[Edited 2012-07-29 19:28:54]
 
Rockinflyer
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:43 am

Quoting steex (Reply 7):

Agreed. SLC will remain a mainline hub for DL for years to come.
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N766UA
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:56 am

Quoting captainstefan (Reply 1):
I don't know other impact it will have, but NRSAs will now often have one less option when trying weird routings to get home.

I always liked CVG for just that reason: it was non-rev friendly! Get into ATL and find your flight oversold? Hop a 767 to CVG and you're all set.
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toltommy
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:37 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 14):
I would absolutely bet good money that in the near future Southwest will transfer their DAY operation to CVG.

I'll take that bet. While the DAY economy isn't where it could be it is a much easier drive from the ohio suburbs, which is where the bulk of population is for the metro area. Combine that with overall lower costs, and WN will be happy to stay at DAY.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:40 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 11):
Alot of the gates can only accomidate CRJ-200s so delta has to fly alot of that plane type.

Unless things have changed drastically, there's 26+ gates at SLC that can handle mainline flights. Some of the CR900s also park at those gates........I believe that E concourse is mostly CR200s, probably CR700s and Brasilias. Most of the even gates on B concourse are a mix of mainline and Skywest.

Quoting MAV88 (Reply 13):
Cincinnati was very fortunate to have DL establish the level of operations they did. Fact is, the city is not that big, the metro area is not that big, it's not a tourist destination and the business market there is not even a top 12 or 13 in this country.

CVG was originally set up as a reliever hub for DL and as I've mentioned in other threads, it morphed into a full blown hub. At the time, this happened, DL had not even bought PA's hub at JFK, yet........CVG and ATL were the only "hubs" in the east.....there was DFW in the south (and west) and SLC in the west. Until DL built up CVG as a full blown hub, SLC was easily as large or larger than CVG.

SLC is in a unique situation in that it isn't a very large city (although the metropolitan area and SLC valley is decent sized) but it is sort of the capital of the intermountain west, so it's actual size really has nothing to do whether it's a hub or not.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 11):

Delta has alot of mainline including widebody fligts at SLC and wants more.

Not nearly the number of widebodies as it used to.......there were 2-3 L1011s a day to HNL, widebodies to ANC, CVG, DFW, JFK & ATL and right after the merger with WA, DC-10s to ORD. I understand the flights to NRT & CDG have become seasonal.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:50 am

Quoting traindoc (Thread starter):
The bottom line for CVG is this: Total PAX for 2006-2007, 21.5 million, versus 8.3 million for 2011-2012. This is for the year ending April 30th, not the calendar year

It's actually even worse than that. For calendar year 2011, CVG saw 7,034,263 total passengers

http://www.cvgairport.com/about/news/stats.html

Click on 2011, then scroll down to December, 2011 and look at the column 2011 y-t-d

LoneStarMike
 
spiritair97
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:03 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 19):
I understand the flights to NRT & CDG have become seasonal.

I think the NRT is gone. I believe, though, that you are correct about CDG.
 
ocracoke
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:19 am

Quoting MAV88 (Reply 13):
Fact is, the city is not that big, the metro area is not that big, it's not a tourist destination and the business market there is not even a top 12 or 13 in this country.

This notion that to be a successful hub, you have to be in a population center with a gazillion people is somewhat overblown. Hypothetical example: what good does it do you if you have a hub in a city with 3,000,000 people, but only 4 people in that city could afford to buy an airline ticket? Wouldn't it be better to have a hub in a city of 200,000, yet everyone of those 200,000 took 19 trips a year? In other words, don't simply look at the population of a city to determine if that place is "worthy" to be a hub city.

As for the business market....Cincinnati is home to Proctor&Gamble, one of the largest, if not the number one largest, travel accounts in the country. I'm sure DL is happy to have most of that contract wrapped up.

Per capita, the Cincinnati area has one of the strongest corporate bases in the country. I'm not sure where you're getting your data. Strong manufacturing, research, banking, international, educational, health care, insurance, governmental sectors.

Quoting airlinewatcher1 (Reply 15):
I would love to see any low-cost carrier start service at CVG. But I'll believe it when I see it. Nobody seems too interested. The closest thing they've got right now is F9/Apple Vacations to Cancun and Punta Cana.

There is SunWIng, flying three times a week down to the Caribbean.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:20 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):

I think the NRT is gone. I believe, though, that you are correct about CDG.

Yes, NRT appears to be completely gone, but the CDG is still in the schedule for the winter.
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:55 am

Quoting N766UA (Reply 17):
I always liked CVG for just that reason: it was non-rev friendly! Get into ATL and find your flight oversold? Hop a 767 to CVG and you're all set.

Back in the days I also liked DFW for that as well bypassing ATL, SLC was also a secondary option.
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lhcvg
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:58 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 18):
I'll take that bet. While the DAY economy isn't where it could be it is a much easier drive from the ohio suburbs, which is where the bulk of population is for the metro area. Combine that with overall lower costs, and WN will be happy to stay at DAY.

Not really. Remember DAY is in Vandalia at the northwest junction of I-70 and I-75 on the north side of Dayton, just like CVG is across the river. You have to get up at least to Monroe to be roughly equidistant, and that is most certainly past the midpoint/center of the Cincinnati-Middletown MSA population. I can unequivocally state that it is not really an easier drive for anyone who doesn't live north of 275 at minimum, and even Union Center and Tylersville Rd. are a toss up at best. And that's using the presumption that Dayton will be less hectic than Cincinnati, and that you're willing to trade distance for perceived lack of congestion and easier roads to travel. This is coming from someone who grew up in the middle of Hamilton Co a couple miles from I-75, and who has used and driven to both airports (plus CMH) from our house.

Now, whether WN switches (and I believe they will), is an open question, but DAY is not a vastly more convenient airport for most of the Cincinnati area unless you're making a conscious decision to chase low fares on an LCC, and thus willing to endure some inconvenice to do so.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:04 am

Quoting ocracoke (Reply 22):
This notion that to be a successful hub, you have to be in a population center with a gazillion people is somewhat overblown. Hypothetical example: what good does it do you if you have a hub in a city with 3,000,000 people, but only 4 people in that city could afford to buy an airline ticket? Wouldn't it be better to have a hub in a city of 200,000, yet everyone of those 200,000 took 19 trips a year? In other words, don't simply look at the population of a city to determine if that place is "worthy" to be a hub city.

As for the business market....Cincinnati is home to Proctor&Gamble, one of the largest, if not the number one largest, travel accounts in the country. I'm sure DL is happy to have most of that contract wrapped up.

Per capita, the Cincinnati area has one of the strongest corporate bases in the country. I'm not sure where you're getting your data. Strong manufacturing, research, banking, international, educational, health care, insurance, governmental sectors.

I dont think he meant to insult CVG or anything. Really population is pointless its O&D that matters look at Denver. I think CVG problem just seems to be the o&d numbers so low. The CVG airport is not a large destination or origin of tickets. I do think there is healthy business traffic from p&g and others and that is what has kept Deltas fares so incredibly high. Its just that alot of the population seems to use the local LCC airports most of the time, theres no tourism or anything to boost numbers etc.
 
spiritair97
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:07 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 23):

When does CDG become seasonal? DAL89 is in the air right now so as of today it is running in the summer,ctoo. I'm guessing it was just recently made seasonal?
 
milesrich
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:17 am

The proliferation of airline hubs was a result of first, the allowed expansion by the CAB of the original feeders into national, or semi national carriers, before deregulation; second, the deregulation itself, and three, the failure of Harding Lawrence after deregulation when he grabbed hundreds of dormant routes that did not fit into Braniff's DFW and MCI hub and spoke system, and Robert Crandall's initial success when he invaded DFW and duplicated just all of Braniff's routes the American did not already compete on out of Dallas.

Originally, United, American, and to a lesser extent TWA had east west hubs in Chicago.
United had a West Coast hub in San Francisco.
United had a Great Lakes area hub in Cleveland.
American and TWA had mini hub type operations at STL.
TWA had a sort of E-W hub at MKC/MCI, and Braniff had N-S one there.
American, Braniff, and Delta all had semi hub operations at DAL/DFW, but before deregulation, Braniff served the shorter routes out of DFW as well as flights N-S, to Chicago, and to the East coast, Delta had flights to the SE and to the West Coast, and American had flights to both coasts and the Great Lakes region.
United, Continental, and Western had mini hubs at Denver.

Salt Lake was a focus city for Western and United, with some connections made there, but not service to 50 different points.

Northwest used MSP as a mini hub from the NW to the East Coast with many cities between MSP and the NW and flights east of MSP to the Great Lakes and the east coast.

National and Continental used Houston, with Continental's service only going west.

And there was Atlanta, with Delta and Eastern.

At the same time, all the airlines had interline agreements, and these were the main connecting airports for interline connections also. Originally, the feeders flew people into these hubs to connect on flights to other regional areas.

First, the feeders got Jet Equipment and wanted to start flying them between larger population centers. At first, routes were awarded to Southern Airlines from cities like CSG, and DHN to Washington and NY. Ozark got to DEN from SUX, and to IAD and LGA from CMI, and PIA. Frontier was awarded routes from MKC to DAL, then from DEN to PHX, and then to DAL. Allegheny got PIT to ORD. Ozark then get STL to DAL. Piedmont got routes from GSO to DFW and NYC.

The feeders then were awarded more and more routes from their main base. When deregulation came, ever airline decided that survive they needed a hub. Western built up SLC and abandoned DEN because United, Continental, and Frontier were entrenched in Denver and there was nowhere else to go. Piedmont built hubs at BWI, and DAY. US Air at PIT. Ozark at St. Louis. Southern merged with North Central to form Republic, abandoned Atlanta, and built up MEM, as well as MSP and DTW. Northwest, could not compete with UA, and AA at ORD so they grew MSP and DTW. Then Bob Crandall was not satisfied with just ORD and DFW, so he started BNA and RDU. Where airlines used to have flights that may have stopped one or twice and gathered passengers to flight to a major point, now most flights were not multistop. As the price of fuel rose, it dictated changes. But every airline felt the way for them to make money was a hub and spoke system.

But there were too many airlines flying to many points. If you wanted to fly from DSM to NYC, you could take TW or OZ via STL, NW via MSP or DTW, AA or UA via ORD, later, DL via CVG.

Delta established a hub at CVG so they could serve the Great Lakes area. Why CVG? They historically had served the city from Chicago, and Detroit on flights to Atlanta and Florida. TWA which had served the city with flights to the east and the West had retreated to it STL hub. Delta wanted a northern hub. Where could they go? NW and RC were in DTW, US was in PIT, PI was in DAY, CO was in CLE. Where else could Delta go, and for a while, flew about everywhere through CVG. ELM, BGM, PVD, BDL, MLI, CID, MSN, DSM, OMA, etc. Piedmont decided to concentrate their flights at CLT.

First, BN went bankrupt and shut down. This caused EA to try to replace them at MCI. RC and NW merged, combining their hubs at MSP and DTW. TW acquired OZ combining STL hubs. Continental built up Houston. Pan Am bought National and then basically withdrew from most of their routes. US and PI merged, and US was at PIT and PHL, making BAL and DAL unnecessary.

With DTW, DL no longer needed CVG as a hub. It would make more sense to fly passengers through Detroit on mainline larger equipment than to operate 50 seat RJ's into CVG and DTW.

DL has been trying to dump OH since 2002. There were no buyers, so last week, they decided to pull the plug. They will move the CRJ700's and 900's to other Delta Connection Carriers. There will soon be a lot of CRJ-100 and 200's in the desert.

The free market system may eventually straighten all this out, and larger aircraft may once again fly domestically from hub airports to major cities, and this irrational system that has developed may get straightened out.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:29 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 27):
When does CDG become seasonal? DAL89 is in the air right now so as of today it is running in the summer,ctoo. I'm guessing it was just recently made seasonal?

Not sure.....Delta.com still shows it operating in November, but I didn't check beyond that.

Quoting milesrich (Reply 28):
American, Braniff, and Delta all had semi hub operations at DAL/DFW, but before deregulation

Before deregulation and before DFW was built, DAL was used by DL, mostly as a stopover on transcons from ATL.

Quoting milesrich (Reply 28):

Salt Lake was a focus city for Western and United, with some connections made there, but not service to 50 different points.

Until '82, when WA made it a hub.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
flyguy89
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:26 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 18):
While the DAY economy isn't where it could be it is a much easier drive from the ohio suburbs

As LHCVG stated, you have to be pretty far north of the city just to be equidistant between CVG and DAY, for the vast majority of the population, CVG is still the closest most convenient airport...that factor is mitigated however if the fare savings are significant, which they usually are, but if this changes, people will drop DAY in a heartbeat.

Quoting toltommy (Reply 18):
Combine that with overall lower costs, and WN will be happy to stay at DAY.

CVG's costs are well below that of STL and PIT where WN has well-established operations, and with the DHL hub, CVG's costs will not be going up in the future. Sure, CVG is more expensive than DAY, but when you include the factors that they could have a larger operation at CVG with a greater catchment area as well as being further distanced from CMH and IND, those benefits easily outweigh the marginal additional costs. I'm sure the city would also put together an incentive package of sorts to further sweeten the appeal.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 26):
I think CVG problem just seems to be the o&d numbers so low. The CVG airport is not a large destination or origin of tickets.

This is specifically due to DL's price-skimming strategy. They've never cared to lure in larger pax volumes with slightly lower fares, DL has seemingly always been content to skim off purely the highest-yielding local travelers while filling the rest of the planes with connections. I guess it works for them because they've rarely budged from this strategy, but the inevitable consequence is, of course, pitifully low O&D numbers.

About two years ago when DL agreed to lower prices slightly for a time, local traffic at CVG increased 25% and topped the charts for the fastest growing domestic airport (by traffic as a percentage I suppose) in the country for that quarter. I think that's a strong indication of the untapped market potential in Cincinnati.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:34 pm

CVG was started by DL for two reasons.

First, ORD was suffering through more and more delays, with no relief in sight. This, despite the fact that ORD was slot controlled.

Second, AA and UA were buying slots from other carriers, as they downsized operations at ORD. Despite a brand new concourse at ORD, L, with 10 gates (a majority of them could handle L-1011s and 767s), DL felt that it was going to have trouble as AA and UA continued to increase the size of their operations.

NW had its hubs at DTW and MSP. TWA had started to downsize its operations at ORD in favor of STL. CO had CLE. Piedmont had started to build a hub at DAY, which initially survived the merger with US. That pretty much left CVG as the only major Midwestern city to build up operations.

The advantage of CVG was that being to the south and east of other Midwest hubs, it could also take some pressure off of ATL.

The problem that DL has seen is that a hub has to have a fair amount of O&D traffic, in order to work. Even though Cinci has some large businesses like P&G and Convergys, with a lot of travel by employees in and out of the area, that just doesn't generate the same amount of O&D traffic as hubs like Chicago, D/FW, Houston, Atanta, and Miami.
 
lhcvg
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:47 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 30):
CVG's costs are well below that of STL and PIT where WN has well-established operations, and with the DHL hub, CVG's costs will not be going up in the future. Sure, CVG is more expensive than DAY, but when you include the factors that they could have a larger operation at CVG with a greater catchment area as well as being further distanced from CMH and IND, those benefits easily outweigh the marginal additional costs. I'm sure the city would also put together an incentive package of sorts to further sweeten the appeal.

Flyfuy is right: this is a classic case where you're spending more in order to tap a much larger and richer market. Sure DAY draws a bit of traffic from CVG, just like CMH/SDF/IND to an extent, but the potential market at CVG is just much bigger. CVG's costs are reasonable enough that they shouldn't be an obstacle to opening a potentially lucrative new station. Note that I don't necessarily think DAY has to go per se if CVG opens as a WN station--perhaps they will spin it like they did with the inherited CAK station in addition to the WN presence at CLE, but however it shakes out, I believe CVG will become part of the WN network.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 30):
This is specifically due to DL's price-skimming strategy. They've never cared to lure in larger pax volumes with slightly lower fares, DL has seemingly always been content to skim off purely the highest-yielding local travelers while filling the rest of the planes with connections. I guess it works for them because they've rarely budged from this strategy, but the inevitable consequence is, of course, pitifully low O&D numbers.

About two years ago when DL agreed to lower prices slightly for a time, local traffic at CVG increased 25% and topped the charts for the fastest growing domestic airport (by traffic as a percentage I suppose) in the country for that quarter. I think that's a strong indication of the untapped market potential in Cincinnati.

Another good point - the Cincinnati MSA has a population that is a bit smaller than PIT and a bit larger than CLE, also in line with Orlando, Kansas City, Sacramento, and San Antonio. Obviously MCO is a bit of an outlier demand-wise due to the stupendous amount of Mickey-related travel (among other attractions and convention biz), but those other cities are good examples of similar-sized areas that have no trouble supporting good service levels. O&D at CVG is limited by the high fares, not for want of travellers who would use it ats their O&D airport.
 
toltommy
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 25):
I can unequivocally state that it is not really an easier drive for anyone who doesn't live north of 275 at minimum, and even Union Center and Tylersville Rd. are a toss up at best. And that's using the presumption that Dayton will be less hectic than Cincinnati, and that you're willing to trade distance for perceived lack of congestion and easier roads to travel.

But there are more people living north of 275 than there are south. The city of Cincinnati is actually almost equal in size to the city of Toledo, but the suburbs are much larger. Once the Brent Spence Bridge replacement gets under way, the "perceived congestion" will be bigger than it is today.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 30):
Sure, CVG is more expensive than DAY, but when you include the factors that they could have a larger operation at CVG with a greater catchment area as well as being further distanced from CMH and IND, those benefits easily outweigh the marginal additional costs.

The costs are not marginal. As you point out CVG is more expensive. WN is doing the same thing at CAK vs CLE. Per the FL station mgr, costs at CAK are 1/5 the costs at CLE. If the KCAB wants to give WN an incentive package to try to lure them down 75, it's going to have to be huge, because DAY can easily afford to match it.
 
lhcvg
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:27 pm

Quoting toltommy (Reply 33):
But there are more people living north of 275 than there are south. The city of Cincinnati is actually almost equal in size to the city of Toledo, but the suburbs are much larger. Once the Brent Spence Bridge replacement gets under way, the "perceived congestion" will be bigger than it is today.

I'm not so sure....Hamilton County has a population of just over 800k, while Butler is a hair below 370k, and I dare say that there are probably somewhere around twice the population of Butler living within 275 in Hamilton Co. (remember that 275 covers the broad outlines of the county with the exception of the NW corner which is sparsely populated anyway).

The suburbs are much bigger than the City proper. However, even accounting for the large population north of 275, the lion's share are below the point where you get to an even coin flip between DAY and CVG, as I mentioned before. In addition, the CVG catchment area also includes Clermont, Boone, Kenton, Campbell, and Dearborn counties that are all decisively much more convenient to CVG than DAY. My point is that if you plot the population on a direct line between CVG and DAY, a solid majority is going to fall South of the geographical midpoint between the two, and the vast majority of that number is located where CVG is by far the best option.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:04 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 31):
CVG was started by DL for two reasons.

Well, all I know is what we were told by management.......that CVG was a reliever hub for ATL.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 31):
First, ORD was suffering through more and more delays, with no relief in sight. This, despite the fact that ORD was slot controlled.

I don't believe ORD was ever going to be a full blown hub by DL, as CVG was. When I worked at ORD, I think we topped out at 90 flights a day. That was with, virtually 6 gates. With the development of L concourse, you might have had some more, but certainly not enough to make it a good hub.
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PHX787
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:13 pm

Quoting traindoc (Thread starter):
For about ten years I flew DL primarily and racked up about 800,000 miles. Flying thru CVG was always more enjoyable than ATL,

I cannot stand connecting in large hubs like DTW or ATL. Too crowded, too many delays, and when the weather hits, everything goes to hell. That's never happened when going through CVG. (2004 aside but that was a computer problem)

Quoting PITrules (Reply 6):
I won't speak for the other cities, but Pittsburgh has never been stronger economically during the past 50 years than it is today.

IMHO The city has gone to the dogs in the last 8 or so years. Crime is way up, nearly everyone I know has moved out, and forclosures were also up too. My dad may relocate to PHX just to get away from the crime on the west side.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 10):

They were fine in the days when oil was cheap, there were a lot of airlines, and everyone was making money. But then throw in 9/11, a recession, and increasing fuel costs and something has to give.

They couldn't be smarter and give into easier-to-fly, fuel efficient planes with alternate fuels?    Sometimes people and companies don't think right.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 9):
Will Southwest ever come to Cincy? Im guessing that CVG is the largest city/market in the lower 48 not served by Southwest or Airtran.

I honestly do not understand why WN and other airlines can't come to the airport AND SERVE BOTH. Two completely different markets.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 12):
CVG is too close to DTW to be kept as a viable hub airport. I would not be surprised if it were to lose even more flights.

Agreed, especially with the OH demise. Bye bye CVG.

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):
I think the NRT is gone.

from SLC, I'm surprised they had it at all

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 26):
I think CVG problem just seems to be the o&d numbers so low.

It's because of two things: Fares too high, (CVG and DL always fighting about this) and DL cutting flights. That's why, simply. I don't know about LHCVG and Flyguy69 but all my contacts in Cincy (over 500) are extremely peeved at DL right now.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 31):
The problem that DL has seen is that a hub has to have a fair amount of O&D traffic, in order to work. Even though Cinci has some large businesses like P&G and Convergys, with a lot of travel by employees in and out of the area, that just doesn't generate the same amount of O&D traffic as hubs like Chicago, D/FW, Houston, Atanta, and Miami.

As I said above: They simply don't have the options to fly anymore unlike in the mid-2000's.
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:16 pm

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 27):
When does CDG become seasonal? DAL89 is in the air right now so as of today it is running in the summer,ctoo. I'm guessing it was just recently made seasonal?

The flight operates year round. It just switches to i think 5x a week in the winter. The flight actually does very well from what i hear it just has a few days of the week that are light hence the 5x in the off season. Last i heard delta still wants to bring slc-nrt back long term after the economy improves.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 30):
This is specifically due to DL's price-skimming strategy. They've never cared to lure in larger pax volumes with slightly lower fares, DL has seemingly always been content to skim off purely the highest-yielding local travelers while filling the rest of the planes with connections. I guess it works for them because they've rarely budged from this strategy, but the inevitable consequence is, of course, pitifully low O&D numbers.

About two years ago when DL agreed to lower prices slightly for a time, local traffic at CVG increased 25% and topped the charts for the fastest growing domestic airport (by traffic as a percentage I suppose) in the country for that quarter. I think that's a strong indication of the untapped market potential in Cincinnati.

This is certainly true. CVG has potential for higher numbers but deltas high fares really do hurt it and push people to the nearby LCC airports or just driving. Delta has always priced CVG differently from other hubs. Deltas strategy in other hubs has often been to price match and keep fares low enough that people dont need another carrier but in CVG they seem to be willing to just price as high as they can and just skim the top business crowd for all they can get even if it hurts overall numbers. They never seemed worried about competition in CVG. For contrast SLC is a fortress hub with really non fortress hub pricing and it keeps o&d numbers high as CVG has so much lower o&d numbers because delta is so high on pricing.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 14):
I would expect CVG to stay about where it is with 120-150 flights for the near-term. DL is stuck with the lease and bond payments for Concourses B and C until 2025, so their operation probably will pretty much exist to mitigate the costs they would otherwise be faced with if they completely left and just moth-balled the facilities and kept making payments.

I def agree. I think deltas plan is to loose as little as possible at CVG. They have all those gates they can loose less by using some and keeping the few flights that make money on o&d. Until someone rolls in with more service to CVG i cant see why delta wouldnt use the gates they are paying for and try to loose less money by keeping the profitable flights.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:26 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 36):
Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 21):
I think the NRT is gone.

from SLC, I'm surprised they had it at all

The way I understand it, this route was one that was being negotiated between SLC and NW BEFORE the merger. DL just carried on with it once they took over.



Just as an FYI, does anyone know how many mainline/non-mainline flights SLC has now? When I worked there, I think we topped out at 160+ mainline but I never did know how many non-mainline we had.
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lhcvg
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 36):
Quoting PITrules (Reply 6):
I won't speak for the other cities, but Pittsburgh has never been stronger economically during the past 50 years than it is today.

IMHO The city has gone to the dogs in the last 8 or so years. Crime is way up, nearly everyone I know has moved out, and forclosures were also up too. My dad may relocate to PHX just to get away from the crime on the west side.

Which city are you talking about here? Because PIT is certainly doing much better than any time in recent memory, and is doing much better with it's transformation than Cincinnati is, although Cincinnati is finally moving that direction. And if you're talking about Cincinnati, you're peddling some very misinformed and misguided information. The city and region are actually doing much better in terms of being an attractive place to live and having amenities and attractions that attract young professionals. I know I've corrected you on this before, but this whole line of yours about "everyone I know has moved out" and leaving the city to get away from the crime is a product of a biased sample of people you know, and is just utter nonsense vis-a-vis the vast majority of people in the area.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 36):
They couldn't be smarter and give into easier-to-fly, fuel efficient planes with alternate fuels? Sometimes people and companies don't think right.

It's not that they don't think right - it's that in the total picture for a business, there is much more to it than that. Total ownership cost is the key, and that takes into account each of purchase price, variable operating and mx costs, and fuel usage. All of those produce a composite figure for the airline, and each gets weighted a bit differently, but the net result is that you can have a very old, inefficient plane that still meets the airline's criteria. We're finally seeing that change somewhat, but it still holds true that neither SQ nor DL has all the answers - each approach has some benefits and some drawbacks as well.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:21 pm

SLC is larger than a lot of people realize. I posted this in another thread a while back, but here are the 2011 population estimates for the four northern Utah metro areas defined by the census bureau:

Salt Lake: 1,145,905
Provo-Orem: 540,834
Ogden-Clearfield: 555,916
Logan: 127,549
Combined total: 2,370,204

The total catchment area for SLC is larger than that, taking in parts of Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, and southern Utah. The total population served by SLC airport is near 3M, although it is quite large geographically. Airports like IDA and TWF stuggle to compete, even with drives of over 3.5 hours. I've met people from as far away as West Yellowstone, Montana (5 hour drive) who consider SLC to be their primary airport.
 
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:25 pm

"I won't speak for the other cities, but Pittsburgh has never been stronger economically during the past 50 years than it is today."

And yet no rush to add flights.

Same thing in STL and CVG.

They had a hub which artificially added flights being filled with connectors. Fewer airlines means fewer hubs needed. Higher gas means more high yielding O and D needed to make a flight work.

Look at what's happening...hubs are retracting to the traditional population centers of the country:

NE corridor-BOS/NYC/PHL/DC
SE ATL/CLT
FLorida-MIA
Center-Chicago,Houston,Dallas
Mountain-DEN/SLC
West-LA/SFO


As for P & G in Cincy...who cares? Go to the Texas cities and the NE and there are hundreds of P & G type companies with corporate accounts. And who is P&G going to fly out of CVG? UA or AA and connect through ORD?

DL knows that as long as they keep a slightly larger presence in CVG then everyone else, they will get the P&G travel.
 
steex
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:25 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 40):
The total catchment area for SLC is larger than that, taking in parts of Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, and southern Utah. The total population served by SLC airport is near 3M, although it is quite large geographically. Airports like IDA and TWF stuggle to compete, even with drives of over 3.5 hours. I've met people from as far away as West Yellowstone, Montana (5 hour drive) who consider SLC to be their primary airport.

I think most people realize that, but that's not necessarily large enough to be a "slam dunk" hub location if not for the area's other unique characteristics. St. Louis is the same approximate size and Pittsburgh/Cincinnati aren't much behind the population figures you quote. It's all the other factors that make SLC more viable.
 
msp747
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 8):
sorry if I offend anyone, but CLE, MEM and SLC should not be as "hubs"

I think you are getting far to general in your definition of a "hub" here. Yes, SLC is not a huge metroplex, but it fits the "hub" model perfectly. It is one of the largest cities in the inter-mountain west, only behind DEN. That makes it the perfect connecting point for people in ID, MT, WY, and other smaller states that would use DEN as an alternative. Add that with the fact that it has low operating costs, and it makes it even more appealing. But SLC does have a lot of O&D traffic too. LDS (Mormon) members on this site might be able to correct me here, but I'm pretty sure that every missionary that comes from the U.S. goes to SLC for training, before they are deployed all over the world. Obviously that's a lot of missionaries, which means a lot of business for airlines, most likely DL. Add to that the fact that SLC is a fast growing city, and I think you can more than cover the "hub" needs. The fact that DL is on board with plans to overhaul the airport show me that they are committed to SLC. If they were happy with the status quo, I think they would fight any terminal overhaul (especially one that will not add many gates). Plus, I think if you stripped SLC of its "hub" status, you would still see a lot of other destinations served, because of the demand. I think there is a reason this Western hub survived the merger, while the more obvious one (LAX) failed. DL is not going to give those profits up
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 42):
I think most people realize that, but that's not necessarily large enough to be a "slam dunk" hub location if not for the area's other unique characteristics. St. Louis is the same approximate size and Pittsburgh/Cincinnati aren't much behind the population figures you quote. It's all the other factors that make SLC more viable.

I totally agree. If not for favorable geography, service at SLC wouldn't look much different from places like SAT, AUS, or maybe SJC. I was just trying to add some context to previous posts that labeled SLC as small, medium, and/or growing.
 
lhcvg
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 41):
As for P & G in Cincy...who cares? Go to the Texas cities and the NE and there are hundreds of P & G type companies with corporate accounts. And who is P&G going to fly out of CVG? UA or AA and connect through ORD?

DL knows that as long as they keep a slightly larger presence in CVG then everyone else, they will get the P&G travel.

It's not "who cares", it's that P&G in particular helps buoy CVG routes where they otherwise wouldn't succeed. It's worth noting, because CVG still sees service that is better than would be the case if P&G weren't there. These other cities have much larger O&D bases to begin with, so these companies are less of a chunk of the overall O&D there. Cincinnati has a few very large firms that disproportionately prop up demand there -- P&G, Federated, Great American, GE Aviation, Toyota, Kroger, and a couple others that don't come to mind right away. As such, when we opine about the prospects of various ex-CVG routes, those routes that are important to P&G et al. go in the category of very unlikely to be axed or downsized below a certain threshold. As for who they are going to fly, P&G has had an agreement with UA to fly to various European destinations via IAD, so they have demonstrated a willingness to "cheat" on DL.
 
tommy767
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:46 pm

Yeah I was flying through RDU yesterday I was thinking to myself, oh god, American Airlines used to have a hub here. That seems nuts for today's standards!
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flyguy89
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 36):
IMHO The city has gone to the dogs in the last 8 or so years. Crime is way up, nearly everyone I know has moved out, and forclosures were also up too. My dad may relocate to PHX just to get away from the crime on the west side.

Let's not not rehash our previous discussion here. You make broad assumptions based on hearsay from your contacts despite facts and statistics which say otherwise...it's really a disservice to Cincy and users on this forum who don't know otherwise to depict the city in an unnecessarily negative way, especially when your assertions are mostly incorrect.

Crime is not way up, it's actually way down thanks in great part to the rehabilitation of Over-the-Rhine and other developments. Perhaps crime has spiked on the West side, but net-net crime is down in the Cincinnati area. You may know people who have moved away but 122,016 people have moved into the Cincinnati area in the past ten years. Foreclosures are up only marginally so, however so are home sales, Cincinnati didn't get hit near as hard by the housing crisis as most other cities. Unemployment is well below the national average and several established companies are expanding or doubling their size. I feel like I'm repeating myself here, not sure what more statistics and facts I could show you, your perceptions are your perceptions, but please stop bandying them around as facts because they're not.

Quoting toltommy (Reply 33):

The costs are not marginal. As you point out CVG is more expensive.

CVG landing fees are almost half those of STL, and again, the difference is marginal when you consider the larger market and larger operation they would have at CVG

Quoting toltommy (Reply 33):
because DAY can easily afford to match it.

They may match it, but the logic and benefits of CVG over DAY would put CVG at an easy advantage.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 32):
Note that I don't necessarily think DAY has to go per se if CVG opens as a WN station--perhaps they will spin it like they did with the inherited CAK station in addition to the WN presence at CLE,

That's a possibility I guess, but I just don't think the area is big enough for two airports, it just seems to make more sense to consolidate the bulk of travel in that region to CVG, being the most centrally located of the two.
 
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mayor
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 46):
Yeah I was flying through RDU yesterday I was thinking to myself, oh god, American Airlines used to have a hub here. That seems nuts for today's standards!

Unless I'm mistaken, AA didn't open the hub in RDU (or BNA, for that matter) until they had been approved for service to London from those cities.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
MJBATC12
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RE: The Decimation Of CVG!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:32 pm

I REALLY hope B6 or WN will go into CVG. Great airport, has alot of space, and has the runways for someone like WN or JB to open a big focus city there. Would be nice to see others like F9 to DEN, etc, which some of you mentioned.

But I really hope WN or B6 goes in there very, very soon...

-MB

[Edited 2012-07-30 10:33:19]
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