dtwpilot225
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Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:31 pm

With all the new routes Spirit is announcing lately, does anyone think that DTW will ever get another route or multiple routes? I think that the cities it serves in DTW are all O&D passengers going to the places Detroiters want to go and the only other place I can think of is AZA which recently got ORD service. This DTW base seems to keep hanging on even when ORD was growing big. Can anyone think of any other cities? Maybe connecting the dots with all the other cities like DEN, MSP, BWI, MSY? I really hope Spirit stays here becuase the city needs service other than Delta.
 
GSPSPOT
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:55 pm

Sure hope NK begins to move into tertiary, but growing/solid markets like GSP! They tried CAE several years ago, but that is a stagnant market.
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NWADTWE16
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 4:18 am

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):

They are much stronger now but theyve tried BOS/DCA and a few others along the way..dont think they would try again as they didnt do well and even with their notariaty these days still dont think they would work. DTW-PHX/AZA prob would not work. I dont think DL is doing any different than NW did and rarely was a 757 full to PHX except certain times of year and there is competion Nonstop from USAirways and WN..would have to say DTWAZA for NK not happening. I cant think of anywhere they would do well from DTW that they dont serve
 
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RWA380
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:40 pm

I think it is only a matter of time before we see NK flying PDX-DTW only competition is a DL flight or two, and DTW-OAK with no direct competition and DL to SFO, both markets have fairly high fares for non-stops service, NK could make some more otherwise RON'd planes work in the middle of the night, just like they are at DFW.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):
With all the new routes Spirit is announcing lately, does anyone think that DTW will ever get another route or multiple routes?

I wouldn't look for any significant DTW growth by NK. There is no indication of such growth, and frankly they have a very checkered past at DTW with routes that flopped and/or quickly were added and then dropped.

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):
This DTW base seems to keep hanging on even when ORD was growing big. Can anyone think of any other cities? Maybe connecting the dots with all the other cities like DEN, MSP, BWI, MSY?

NK isn't going to try "business" routes since they simply will not get the market. DTW-DEN and BWI already have more capacity than they need and are fare stimulated.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):
I think it is only a matter of time before we see NK flying PDX-DTW only competition is a DL flight or two, and DTW-OAK with no direct competition and DL to SFO, both markets have fairly high fares for non-stops service, NK could make some more otherwise RON'd planes work in the middle of the night, just like they are at DFW.

DTW-PDX would be a horrific failure. DL only flies this seasonally about 8 months out of the year. Maybe they could try SFO but doubtful.

NK's model right now is to go into new markets, make a big splash, and stimulate demand with low fares for discretionary travel. NK has been in DTW for years and people know who they are. They aren't going to make a big splash because anyone who has traveled in the past 15 years knows about NK, and frankly they don't build much in the way of loyalty. I know many who will say "never again" I don't think that DTW can generate enough traffic outside of the Florida routes and LAS/LAX. Other markets have better traffic stimulation.
 
spiritair97
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 3:53 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):

You're right, it is doubtful that NK would try their hand at SFO, but because they already go to OAK. I think DTWOAK could be a possibility.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
NK's model right now is to go into new markets, make a big splash, and stimulate demand with low fares for discretionary travel. NK has been in DTW for years and people know who they are. They aren't going to make a big splash because anyone who has traveled in the past 15 years knows about NK, and frankly they don't build much in the way of loyalty. I know many who will say "never again" I don't think that DTW can generate enough traffic outside of the Florida routes and LAS/LAX. Other markets have better traffic stimulation.

PSU sums it up pretty good as usual. NK has been stagnant/slowly declining in DTW for years. Once they moved everything to FLL that pretty much sealed the deal. They'll stick around as long as it continues to generate profit for the airline.
 
flyinryan99
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
Maybe they could try SFO but doubtful.

Didn't they run this seasonally in the past? I could've swore they have ran this.

The problem in DTW is they reduce fares for the routes they fly and DL doesn't necessarily match them, but they will still keep the passengers as they are addicted to their skymiles. It's the same 'ole song and dance in this neck of the woods.
 
iowaman
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:54 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
NK's model right now is to go into new markets, make a big splash, and stimulate demand with low fares for discretionary travel.

I couldn't agree more.

No one can really argue how cheap their fares are compared to nearly every once else. For example, there is usually about a $150 difference on a flight from Minneapolis to Las Vegas from what I've seen from searches on Expedia. To someone like me - a college student off relatively well financially but yet still trying to watch my dollars, $150 is worth looking into saving. I probably would not go to Las Vegas as often if I had to pay ~$350 round-trip compared to ~$200 round-trip. Of course me being a couple hours south of Minneapolis I would probably look for a cheaper flight in DSM (I've flown F9, UA, and DL to LAS in the past two years out of MSP / DSM), but I am not a Minneapolis area resident and have the flexibility between numerous airports. For a family even if they had baggage saving even $80 ticket over any other airline multiplied by 4 or 5 tickets is a big savings over any other airline.

In a market such as MSP-MDW and LAS which NK currently flies (and most routes out of DTW), there is a healthy O&D market, and they just need to generate a little more and maybe scrape a little off from others to make money. I was not a big fan of Spirit, but their business model of shifting recently towards connecting large cities by running otherwise idle plans is working. Some people complain about flight times, but DL/NW has ran short red-eyes such LAS-MSP for years (1am departure or so, 5:30am or so arrival), along with routes like AA LAS-DFW, AA SEA-ORD, etc. etc. I do feel NK could add quite a few more red-eyes out of LAS if they desired - gate space is readily available, and America West and also for a short time US Airways had a small hub-bank operation going on for red-eyes. Of course fuel is not as cheap, but I feel there is demand to made with ULCC fares.

Whether WN feels seriously threatened by the future of NK yet I'm starting to wonder - as they are still relatively small but growing. WN is in a race to become the entire nations domestic airline in my opinion (minus rural areas), and their costs are going up a long in the race. Labor costs, as well as flying into more expensive and chronically congested airports have forced them to continue to figure out ways to increase revenue here and there (business select fares, adding monster energy drinks available for purchase, and maybe most of all larger planes to lower costs ). Airports like SFO, LGA, EWR, and now DCA are a complete change from their previous business model of keeping turns quicker and costs lower. Shareholders however like to see adapation and growth from companies, so they have been forced to figure out how to carry more people and bring in more revenue. NK in my eyes is essentially what WN was shortly after the airline was formed - a super inexpensive no-frills airline generating demand over what was there previously with higher fares. Yes it is more a la carte and yes NK does red-eyes, but it is working. And it is also working for Allegiant (a ~$67.00 stock price can't be ignored). I believe Southwest is now also largely focused on squashing the competition in recent years (think F9 at DEN, FL merger, adding flights to Florida from PVD days after B6 announces they are opening PVD), and by getting into these major airports they are much more able to compete for a larger chunk of pie.

Kevin  

[Edited 2012-07-31 10:56:41]
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:04 pm

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 7):
Didn't they run this seasonally in the past? I could've swore they have ran this.

You're right, they did fly DTW-SFO, at least for awhile back in 2006.

That being said, NK has tried, and dropped the following routes from DTW over the years:
BOS
PHL
DCA
ACY
DEN
SFO

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 7):
The problem in DTW is they reduce fares for the routes they fly and DL doesn't necessarily match them, but they will still keep the passengers as they are addicted to their skymiles. It's the same 'ole song and dance in this neck of the woods.

It's not even just that, like you said, DL doesn't even bother fare-matching for the most part. NK and DL are going after a different demographic.

1) NK gets almost zero corporate travel - their limited schedule and network is not appealing, plus many have agreements with DL
2) NK does not have the loyalty program or ammenities - miles, elite status, etc. to draw in the corporate traffic

Its not they are addicted to Skymiles, yes some are, but they are just a niche carrier in DTW.
 
KarlB737
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Tue Jul 31, 2012 7:57 pm

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):
Can anyone think of any other cities?

Since Delta doesn't acknowledge DTW to BUR would there be any merit to Spirit adding that.
 
brains
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 3:04 am

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 10):

Since Delta doesn't acknowledge DTW to BUR would there be any merit to Spirit adding that.

NK already flies DTW LAX. Burbank is a long shot at best.
Brains
 
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usxguy
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:04 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
It's not even just that, like you said, DL doesn't even bother fare-matching for the most part. NK and DL are going after a different demographic.

Huh? Then why did DL introduce "E" fares in markets only served by Delta & spirit??
xx
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:15 am

E fares are so restrictive and hard to find, they generally aren't usable for most passengers.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:51 am

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):
With all the new routes Spirit is announcing lately, does anyone think that DTW will ever get another route or multiple routes? I think that the cities it serves in DTW are all O&D passengers going to the places Detroiters want to go and the only other place I can think of is AZA which recently got ORD service

With a couple of slight changes, your opening post question would become:
"With all the new routes Spirit is announcing lately, does anyone think that XXX will ever get another route or multiple routes? I think that the cities it serves in XXX are all O&D passengers going to the places XXXXX-ers want to go..."

With Sprit's infamous list of over 300 city-pairs that they continue to work their way through, IMO, DTW is no different than 100 other cities. IF there are a couple of those city-pairs that involve DTW, then Detroit will get another route or 2. Otherwise, it's on to the next city-pair on the list.

There might be a slight advantage for NK to work with cities that they already serve (thus eliminating station start-up costs) and there might be a bit of negative pressure against DTW due to the length of time Spirit has been there and the number of past failures. But overall, I think DTW, along with AZA, DEN, and so many other cities -- with the exception of DFW -- that have been pegged here on A.net as the next hub for Spirit, is a station with NK service. Period. Depending on what THE LIST says, if a city has a lot of O&D traffic that will support a ULCC, it will then get multiple routes and flights.

bb
 
point2point
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 5:19 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
That being said, NK has tried, and dropped the following routes from DTW over the years:
.....
DEN
..........

If NK got into this route, they would be the fifth wheel here, behind UA, WN, F9, and DL...... so maybe this route won't happen too quickly, although with NK, just the fact that they even invaded DEN was probably a shock to all, so anything after that.......?



Quoting dtwpilot225 (Thread starter):
I can think of is AZA which recently got ORD service.

With an average of about 2800 pax flying between DEN-PHX daily, I would think that there easily would be room for at least a couple of NK (or any airline for that matter) DEN-AZA flights.....


 

[Edited 2012-07-31 22:25:58]
 
texan
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:35 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
That being said, NK has tried, and dropped the following routes from DTW over the years:
BOS
PHL

Spirit actually made good headway in both markets. Northwest then brought the hammer down. Spirit took them to court. The District Court granted Northwest's motion for summary judgment and Spirit appealed to the Sixth Circuit. The parties agreed to have the 6th Circuit issue an opinion. The 6th Circuit reversed and remanded to the District Court. Northwest had entered Chapter 11 by the time the opinion was issued and the automatic stay provision applied to the appeal. The bankruptcy court lifted the automatic stay, however, on the parties' stipulation to get a decision on the appeal.

What this means, then, is that a reasonable trier of fact could have found that Northwest's tactics in competing against Spirit on the DTW-BOS/PHL routes violated s 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act. In that case, then, you could not blame Spirit for leaving those two routes. Spirit was attaining load factors in excess of 86% on these two routes before Northwest's potentially anti-competitive response. After Northwest's response, Spirit's load factors fell to below 45% on both routes.

Texan
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
With a couple of slight changes, your opening post question would become:
"With all the new routes Spirit is announcing lately, does anyone think that XXX will ever get another route or multiple routes? I think that the cities it serves in XXX are all O&D passengers going to the places XXXXX-ers want to go..."

Very true. Always the same type of question whenever some LCC/ULCC is planning pending expansion.

More potential routes than aircraft, lets not get overzealous about NK.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
There might be a slight advantage for NK to work with cities that they already serve (thus eliminating station start-up costs) and there might be a bit of negative pressure against DTW due to the length of time Spirit has been there and the number of past failures. But overall, I think DTW, along with AZA, DEN, and so many other cities -- with the exception of DFW -- that have been pegged here on A.net as the next hub for Spirit, is a station with NK service. Period. Depending on what THE LIST says, if a city has a lot of O&D traffic that will support a ULCC, it will then get multiple routes and flights.

In a period between 2000-2005, NK peaked in DTW with around 35-40 daily flights. They had plans to up the number to over 60 flights per day. NK was planning to take at least 8 gates when the new North Terminal opened. However NK reinvented itself and changed the focus on their operation, not to mention their fleet, and also the impact of the economy.

NK now is down to 16 daily departures in DTW this summer. The routes they have, with the exception of the new DFW service have all been flown for years.

Quoting point2point (Reply 15):
If NK got into this route, they would be the fifth wheel here, behind UA, WN, F9, and DL...... so maybe this route won't happen too quickly, although with NK, just the fact that they even invaded DEN was probably a shock to all, so anything after that.......?

NK flew to DEN back in the early 2000s but pulled out of the market around 2004 I believe. DTW-DEN was flown back during this period. Only recently in 2012 has NK re-entered the DEN market.
 
nkops
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Wed Aug 01, 2012 11:51 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
That being said, NK has tried, and dropped the following routes from DTW over the years
Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):
ACY

This one currently operates with the A320, its been seasonal for the last 4 years..
:evil:
 
michman
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Thu Aug 02, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 17):
NK now is down to 16 daily departures in DTW this summer. The routes they have, with the exception of the new DFW service have all been flown for years.

Isn't DTW-ORD relatively new?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Spirit Growth Question And DTW

Thu Aug 02, 2012 2:58 am

Quoting michman (Reply 19):
Isn't DTW-ORD relatively new?

NK started DTW-ORD last year, in August 2011.

Honestly, I thought that they may have operated this route at some point in the past, like in the early 2000s, but I could be wrong.

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