G500
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NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:10 pm

2 questions:

1- Why is the HKG-LAX market lagging behind NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX?

Both NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX offer A380 flights plus several other flights.... Only Cathay flies HKG-LAX. Hong Kong is one of the financial capitals of the world, what's the problem?.


2- Could ICN-LAX catch up to NRT-LAX as far as seats offered? (ICN-LAX seems to be growing)
 
sw733
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:16 pm

Just one thing to keep in mind:

Hong Kong - Technically 15.8 million, but many of these reside on the Mainland side, which creates some differences and difficulties as it's a completely different immigration system. Also as a result of this, many people going to HKG can only go to HKG since they need a separate visa to get to Szenzhen and the other cities on the Chinese side. HKG itself (as an SAR) is only 7 Million

Tokyo - Metro area of 32.5 million

Seoul - Metro area of 21 million


So there's a big issue - HKG = 7 million (15 at most...very very most), ICN = 21 million, NRT = 32 million. There are many other reasons (they all do have big business connections), but population alone can go a long way to explain capacity.

[Edited 2012-08-02 13:17:49]
 
corinthians
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:24 pm

LA has a huge Korean population, which explains the traffic levels on that route. I think Tokyo is more because of connections and NRT is still the main Asian airport people use to transfer throughout Asia. With HKLA has a large Chinese population, but most are not originally from HK. I believe Most Chinese in LA originate from Taiwan. Where does TPE fit on this list?
 
mogandoCI
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:26 pm

There's also geography - from East Asia to North America, NRT/ICN are much more convenient transit points than HKG.
 
bobnwa
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:26 pm

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
2 questions:

1- Why is the HKG-LAX market lagging behind NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX?

Both NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX offer A380 flights plus several other flights.... Only Cathay flies HKG-LAX. Hong Kong is one of the financial capitals of the world, what's the problem?.


2- Could ICN-LAX catch up to NRT-LAX as far as seats offered? (ICN-LAX seems to be growing)

I guess that the first answer that comes to mind is that the NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX have more people that want to fly the route than HKG-LAX have!!
 
G500
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:29 pm

Quoting Corinthians (Reply 2):
LA has a large Chinese population, but most are not originally from HK. I believe Most Chinese in LA originate from Taiwan. Where does TPE fit on this list?

this is my assumption:

NRT-LAX
ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
HKG-LAX

The way things are going, wouldn't surprise me if ICN-LAX passes NRT-LAX.

I find it very interesting that the HKG-LAX market cannot keep up with the others, again keeping in mind that Hong Kong is a major financial center, not to mention the fact that Hong Kong is Cathay Pacific's hub.
 
falkerker
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:38 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 3):

True. But wouldn't SE asia be much more convenient from HKG than from ICN or NRT? Then again maybe there are more passengers going USA-East Asia than USA-SE asia.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:40 pm

Does KE get much feed from Delta on LAX-ICN?
 
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
I find it very interesting that the HKG-LAX market cannot keep up with the others, again keeping in mind that Hong Kong is a major financial center, not to mention the fact that Hong Kong is Cathay Pacific's hub.

What does this have to do with anything? LA is not a major world financial center...
 
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:58 pm

Korea and Japan are bigger local markets to LAX and are east of China, Hong Kong is South of it. Two Korean airline fly daily to Los Angeles as do both Japanesse airlines. Three USA airlines fly to Tokyo but non fly from LAX to ICN. Cathay is the only ailrine from LAX to HKG and it flies 2 or 3 times daily, United has tried it but bombed both times. HKG is a one city deal with no domestic air connections, it does have many to China.
 
Tdan
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:08 pm

1. Geography - NRT/ICN are situated better geographically as transit hubs for Asia. A significant portion of LAX-Asia traffic is overflown by LAX-HKG

2. Demographics - More ethnic Koreans and Taiwanese in LA

3. Competition - only CX on LAX-HKG...if UA or anyone else added a flight, the local market would be stimulated

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
this is my assumption:

NRT-LAX
ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
HKG-LAX

I believe the actual O&Ds are:

ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
NRT-LAX
HKG-LAX

HKG-SFO is actually a bigger local market size than LAX-HKG. More ethnic and business traffic. IIRC, this is the only transpacific market in the top 10 APAC destinations where SFO's market size is bigger than LAX's
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LAXintl
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:26 pm

Why should it be a surprise? Its like asking why is LA-London bigger than Paris?

Lots of good reasons as mentioned above. Ethnic/cultural, commerce, population, tourism etc..

Quoting Tdan (Reply 10):
I believe the actual O&Ds are:

As I posted recently in the SQ SFO A380 thread here were the top Transpac markets by enplanements from LA, and how they stack up versus SFO in 2011.

NRT-LAX - 1,114,251
NRT-SFO - 565,597

SYD-LAX - 1,104,245
SYD-SFO - 301,793

ICN-LAX - 896,055
ICN-SFO - 635,575

TPE-LAX - 894,670
TPE-SFO - 522,709

HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257


Overtime, Tokyo will likely continue to decline (-30% in 8 years), while Seoul continues to grow(+35% in same 8-years) for example.
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Tdan
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:53 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):

These are enplanements, correct? I was talking about true O&D market sizes. Of course LAX-NRT is going to be the largest by enplanements because it has the most capacity, but it also consists of a higher percentage of flow traffic than a route like LAX-TPE. Same thing goes for LAX-SYD as in it carries an immense amount of flow traffic that makes up the majority of enplanements.
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dfambro
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:06 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257

Thanks for posting that - I was just wondering whether SFO numbers are the reverse order from LAX due to historical immigration patterns. That seems to be the case!
 
United Airline
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:08 am

But there are lots of Hong Kong people in LA too

Wonder if UA will restart HKG-LAX
 
mogandoCI
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:21 am

Quoting falkerker (Reply 6):
True. But wouldn't SE asia be much more convenient from HKG than from ICN or NRT? Then again maybe there are more passengers going USA-East Asia than USA-SE asia.

it should be equal - that's why SQ does both SIN-ICN-SFO and SIN-HKG-SFO

HKG is geographically suited for both Kangaroo Route and SEAsia-NorthAmerica transfers, but ICN/NRT still has the edge. Other than lack of existing routes (i.e. oddball ones like SiemReap), I can't really think of any SE Asian city that is better XYZ-HKG-LAX over XYZ-NRT-LAX.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:19 am

ICN and NRT have a lot more connecting traffic coming from LAX to other points in Asia than HKG does.

In the local only market, I bet ICN is larger than NRT. But I might be wrong.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:00 am

Quoting Corinthians (Reply 2):
NRT is still the main Asian airport people use to transfer throughout Asia.

   ICN has grown past NRT as a hub. Mostly due to NRT/HND being split and HND isn't focused on non-Japanese customers (English signs and personal trained to speak English lack a bit at HND).

NRT didn't even make the top 50 airports by passenger traffic in 2011:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's...iest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

I'd be interested to see the stats to PEK and PVG.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
In the local only market, I bet ICN is larger than NRT.

I would bet the opposite even before I saw LAXintl's numbers:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
NRT-LAX - 1,114,251
NRT-SFO - 565,597
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
ICN-LAX - 896,055
ICN-SFO - 635,575
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
TPE-LAX - 894,670
TPE-SFO - 522,709

That surprised me. While I know people flying that route multiple times per year, I expected TPE-LAX to be less than 500,000. I'm glad you posed the numbers.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
Overtime, Tokyo will likely continue to decline (-30% in 8 years), while Seoul continues to grow(+35% in same 8-years) for example.

By that trend, the cross point is in 2 years.
Do you have LAX/SFO to PEK and PVG? Thanks in advance.

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G500
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:43 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
ICN has grown past NRT as a hub. Mostly due to NRT/HND being split

i think that just might be the reason why ICN seems like a larger market than NRT
 
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RWA380
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:11 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257
Quoting dfambro (Reply 13):

Thanks for posting that - I was just wondering whether SFO numbers are the reverse order from LAX due to historical immigration patterns. That seems to be the case!

I guess we know why SQ is flying an A380 to SFO via HKG now.....
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modesto2
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:25 am

I didn't realize that the San Francisco Bay Area has THAT much more HKG traffic. Explains the SQ, CX, and UA service.
 
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STT757
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:01 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 14):
Wonder if UA will restart HKG-LAX

Might be a good 787-9 route.
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LAXintl
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:38 pm

For fun, here are some other bits of info to show why Hong Kong is on the lower end of things.

Top Asia/Pacific foreign visitors to Los Angeles 2011.

Australia - 383,000
PRC - 339,000
Japan - 289,000
Korea - 240,000
Taiwan - 156,000

No Hong Kong on the list as its count must be under 100,000 which was the cutoff on the chart.

Top Asian Pacific nationalities in Los Angeles

Korean - 516,501
Chinese - 350,119 (not Taiwanese)
Filipino - 322,110
Japanese - 102,287
Vietnamese - 87,468
Taiwanese - 40,336
Cambodian - 32,125
Thai - 25,014

Again - no Hong Kong in the count.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 12):
These are enplanements, correct? I was talking about true O&D market sizes. Of course LAX-NRT is going to be the largest by enplanements because it has the most capacity, but it also consists of a higher percentage of flow traffic than a route like LAX-TPE. Same thing goes for LAX-SYD as in it carries an immense amount of flow traffic that makes up the majority of enplanements.

Yes its enplanaments. For pure O&D I can get that info probably another time.

But as I recall LAX-ICN is now the larger local market especially now post Korea achieving Visa Waiver Status. Also the local Korean population if 5x that of Japanese for example which drives lots of local trips.
In general Japanese travel is on a decline (LAX-NRT was down 30% last 8-years as I mentioned previously) and still has a high component of transit while Korea is booming (up 35%) in recent years


=
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Tdan
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22):
Yes its enplanaments. For pure O&D I can get that info probably another time.

But as I recall LAX-ICN is now the larger local market especially now post Korea achieving Visa Waiver Status. Also the local Korean population if 5x that of Japanese for example which drives lots of local trips.
In general Japanese travel is on a decline (LAX-NRT was down 30% last 8-years as I mentioned previously) and still has a high component of transit while Korea is booming (up 35%) in recent years

Thanks for the clarification. You're absolutely correct that the VWP has caused an explosion of growth in Korea-US traffic off of an already very large base. However, even before the VWP, the largest LAX-Asia local O&D market was already LAX-ICN and is followed by LAX-TPE, LAX-NRT then LAX-HKG as I mentioned before.
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B2443
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:34 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 3):
There's also geography - from East Asia to North America, NRT/ICN are much more convenient transit points than HKG.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22):
Top Asia/Pacific foreign visitors to Los Angeles 2011.

Australia - 383,000
PRC - 339,000
Japan - 289,000
Korea - 240,000
Taiwan - 156,000

No Hong Kong on the list as its count must be under 100,000 which was the cutoff on the chart.

Top Asian Pacific nationalities in Los Angeles

Korean - 516,501
Chinese - 350,119 (not Taiwanese)
Filipino - 322,110
Japanese - 102,287
Vietnamese - 87,468
Taiwanese - 40,336
Cambodian - 32,125
Thai - 25,014

The top visitors to LAX are not going thru HK due to the geographics. HK used to be THE gateway for mainland Chinese but HK 's role for that is deminishing by the day as PEK, PVG and even CAN are getting less expensive with shorter travel time.
 
LAXintl
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:15 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
Do you have LAX/SFO to PEK and PVG? Thanks in advance.

Sorry for the tardy response here you go.

PEK-LAX - 214,631
PEK-SFO - 383,756

PVG-LAX - 379,676
PVG-SFO - 225,969

Kinda interesting how PEK and PVG which have almost identical combined enplanements flip flop between SFO and LAX.


And for fun I added CAN.

CAN-LAX - 150,214
CAN-SFO - 0

[Edited 2012-08-03 17:21:37]
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:26 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
Overtime, Tokyo will likely continue to decline (-30% in 8 years), while Seoul continues to grow(+35% in same 8-years) for example.

Interesting. While I have no doubts about ICN, I have to wonder if Tokyo will really decline that much. That's quite a drop there.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 21):
Might be a good 787-9 route.

Yup. If we're taking the frequency is best stance (which I frequently do) I would even say that a 788 would be cut out right for this.


The other thing that restricts HKG getting super-huge ex-LAX is the aircraft themselves. We have to remember that it's about 1250mi further than LAX-ICN & almost 2000mi further than LAX-NRT. There aren't many types that will do this route unrestricted and at that point, the route really needs to justify the type and cost. Until 788/789s or A358/359s get in on the action here, it pretty much has to be a premium heavy market, or cargo intensive (both in CX' case, no doubt) to work.
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lightsaber
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:40 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 25):
Kinda interesting how PEK and PVG which have almost identical combined enplanements flip flop between SFO and LAX.

That it is. When PVG gains additional capacity, I expect it will become a far larger destination from LAX and SFO than it is today.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 25):
CAN-SFO - 0

There we have a 787 opportunity.   (or not...)

That said, I will be curious to see how LAX-CAN changes with the A380. (If at all.)

How are you finding these numbers?

Lightsaber
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Coal
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:48 am

Quoting falkerker (Reply 6):
But wouldn't SE asia be much more convenient from HKG than from ICN or NRT? Then again maybe there are more passengers going USA-East Asia than USA-SE asia.

You'd be surprised how KE covers SE Asia way better than CX/KA. As a matter of fact, CX/KA has very poor coverage in SE Asia, not to mention the equipment they send around is quite old vs. competitors, esp. SQ. CX/KA is more focused on Europe, N. America, Australia, and all the connections to mainland China with KA.

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LAXintl
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:55 pm

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 26):
I have to wonder if Tokyo will really decline that much. That's quite a drop there.

Well yes its dropped 30% already in last 8-years, and everyone I know also believe the decline will continue.

Japan has many factors working against it.

One is airlines are simply overflying Japan and connecting more parts of Asia directly to the US. Another is there are many other viable Asian hubs that now compete against Japanese gateways.

Add in ongoing decade long economic holding patter in Japan, and the now shrinkage Japanese population and along with demographics changes that simply are producing reduced travel demand to the US.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 27):
How are you finding these numbers?

DOT T100 numbers.
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jfk777
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:01 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 29):
Add in ongoing decade long economic holding patter in Japan, and the now shrinkage Japanese population and along with demographics changes that simply are producing reduced travel demand to the US.

The exchange rate is of no help to American tourists, 78 yen to the Dollar is obsurd. Could you imagine if a British Pound cost 3 USD or a Euro at 4 USD ? The yen is that overvalued, it should be at 150 yen per USD.
 
mainMAN
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:29 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 30):
Could you imagine if a British Pound cost 3 USD

Yes please  
 
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lightsaber
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:56 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 29):
Well yes its dropped 30% already in last 8-years, and everyone I know also believe the decline will continue.

Japan has many factors working against it.

One is airlines are simply overflying Japan and connecting more parts of Asia directly to the US. Another is there are many other viable Asian hubs that now compete against Japanese gateways.

I would add an aging Japanese population that is past its peak travel years as well as significant competition from China for tourist dollars. But probably the biggest hit is the convenience of other hubs to Asian destinations, including within Japan! Some of the transfer times at NRT are ridiculous and HND is not set up for non-Japanese.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 29):
DOT T100 numbers.

Thank you. I'll have to look into the best way to decompose the numbers.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
mogandoCI
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:18 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 29):
Well yes its dropped 30% already in last 8-years, and everyone I know also believe the decline will continue.

Japan has many factors working against it.

One is airlines are simply overflying Japan and connecting more parts of Asia directly to the US. Another is there are many other viable Asian hubs that now compete against Japanese gateways.

Add in ongoing decade long economic holding patter in Japan, and the now shrinkage Japanese population and along with demographics changes that simply are producing reduced travel demand to the US.

I'll add 3 more to this list :

1. invention of 777/330/340 that allowed direct p2p TPAC flights to thinner destinations, bypassing the tranditional hub(s)

2. invention of fuel efficient ULH aircraft that allowed nonstop flights from HKG, BKK, and even SIN.

3. opening up of Chinese and Russian airspace, thus allowing much more efficient westbound routings. EWR-HKG wouldn't be economically feasible on the westbound if it must be routed over open water in the Pacific.
 
LAXintl
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RE: NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 30):
The exchange rate is of no help to American tourists, 78 yen to the Dollar is obsurd. Could you imagine if a British Pound cost 3 USD or a Euro at 4 USD ? The yen is that overvalued, it should be at 150 yen per USD.

Might not help American's wishing to visit, but s strong yen should be good for the market, as US-Japan tends to skew heavily in favor of Japan point of sale.
For example in 2011 - 3.25mil Japanese came to the US, while only 595,000 Americans went the other way.

But even with the good buying power tailwind, the Japan-US market continues to shrink......
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