wedgetail737
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International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:32 am

SEA has had some significant growth in international service during the last few years. Most recently, new DXB service on Emirates and new NRT service on ANA.

What could possibly be next??? I know that the FIS facility at SEA is overwhelmed and there is very limit gate space at the S-Concourse.
 
aznmadsci
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:37 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Thread starter):
I know that the FIS facility at SEA is overwhelmed and there is very limit gate space at the S-Concourse.

How many and which gates are international gates at S?
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Amwest2United
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:38 am

HND if DL gets thier way.
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wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:50 am

Quoting aznmadsci (Reply 1):
How many and which gates are international gates at S?

6 gates...maybe 7. The rest of them are occupied by DL.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:01 am

Quoting amwest2united (Reply 2):
HND if DL gets thier way.

Prediction: DL with HKG, HND and PVG. 1 or 2 of these routes
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G500
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:02 am

People think SEA and inmediately think Asia

Aeromexico could comeback. Maybe Copa or an European airline
 
rwsea
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:03 am

I'd like to see HKG, PVG, and NGO. Once those are covered, SEA would have an excellent network to Asia with all the big destinations covered.

In terms of Europe, I think it's pretty maxed out at the moment. In addition, EK is probably hurting BA/LH/DL to an extent with their Middle East and India connections. Other than BA possibly bringing back the second daily flight in the summer, I don't see much opportunity TATL.

It would be nice to see MEX come back!
 
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RWA380
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:51 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Thread starter):
I know that the FIS facility at SEA is overwhelmed and there is very limit gate space at the S-Concourse.

Hey Wedge, isn't the real crunch for S and the FIS facility mostly during the late morning to early afternoon time frame? If a carrier operated outside those crunch hours, wouldn't there be plenty of FIS space available for more International traffic?

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
People think SEA and inmediately think Asia

Aeromexico could comeback. Maybe Copa or an European airline

I agree something should operate to Central or South America from SEA. I think the O/D traffic is pretty low, but it would be cool to see an LA 787 operating a SEA-LIM-SCL flight 3x weekly, If they have AS providing some feed for them into SEA.
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wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:18 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
Hey Wedge, isn't the real crunch for S and the FIS facility mostly during the late morning to early afternoon time frame? If a carrier operated outside those crunch hours, wouldn't there be plenty of FIS space available for more International traffic?

There's another block of flights in the late afternoon with BA, FI, EVA and Condor during the summer. EK lingers at the international gate until 5:30PM. I think that slot is filling up.
 
2travel2know2
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:03 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
Aeromexico could comeback. Maybe Copa or an European airline

SEA could support a non-stop to MEX or one-stop via GLD or MTY.
As for CM, the distance between SEA and PTY is major issue for CM.
One thing is those non-stop delivery flights from Boeing field with very few passengers, another a fully loaded B737-700 (because maximum range issues) flying from PTY to SEA winter-time.
An option for CM flights to SEA would be to route it via GUA (specially since CM R.O.N. planes @ GUA), which may not be so attractive as a non-stop but would be a CM B737 friendly route.
IMHO, sooner or later, SEA would probably become a CM destination, but after CM starts SFO.
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SuperDash
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:51 pm

There are at least 11 international gates at Sea-Tac. Gates really aren't the problem. The custom's facility is small and gets filled quickly with just a couple of planes n the ground (and it's a really dumpy facility). SEA has a common use policy and I think international service trumps Delta (hence why they use B concourse gates during the mid day bank).

As for MORE service, I don't think enough 787s are flying yet to get to that discussion. The cities left are small and need airplane size of 200-220 seats and maybe less than daily. And the market has to have great connectivity.
 
cargolex
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:48 pm

Any other international service, IMO, would have to arrive at times not currently occupied by other carriers due to the small facility for clearing all those pax. That, or build another terminal, which ain't happening.

Purely speculative route potentials:

UA HKG-SEA as an eventual replacement for NRT-SEA.

DL HKG-SEA?

HX HKG-SEA, as they want to expand expand expand. Cathay isn't interested, and they already have a tiny presence via sister airline Hianan.

LA SCL-SEA, but not for a long while. Another consideration might be Bogota via LAN Columbia. AM couldn't make SEA-MEX work, not sure if these routes would work either. LAN is a partner of Alaska, however, so they could secure feed that way in some respects.

TG BKK-SEA. It won't happen, but I wish they'd return.
 
cjpmaestro
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:04 pm

Seattle seems to have a large Vietnamese and Filipino population. Could SEA sustain flights to these countries?
 
cjpmaestro
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:08 pm

One more thought.....could DL do a SEA-SYD?
 
rwsea
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:10 pm

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 12):

Seattle seems to have a large Vietnamese and Filipino population. Could SEA sustain flights to these countries?

Doubtful - flights are very low-yielding to these destinations. Most of the existing traffic to these destinations flies over ICN with KE/OZ and TPE with BR. Fares are typically quite low given the length.
 
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gegtim
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:55 am

I know DAL terminated Asian service from PDX years ago. Would it help SEA's cause if international traffic resumed at PDX? Travel between PDX and SEA is pretty easy now. Besides commuter air service there is some pretty cushy ground shuttle service between the two cities.

As far as SEA supporting service to SYD I know they opened a third runway around 2008, but I don't know how long it is.
 
alexinwa
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:11 am

UA HKG-SEA as an eventual replacement for NRT-SEA.

Couldn't agree more. I fully expect UA to take that before DL does. I think SEA-NRT will stay. Look at IAD-NRT with both NH and UA.
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hellogorgeous
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:22 am

Cancun appears to be an unserved market. I recall AS not requesting an exemption to fly SEA-CUN a couple of years back.
 
YYZAMS
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:33 am

what's next?....Maybe AC to get a bigger plane on the YYZ-SEA route!
 
hiflyeras
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:06 am

I'd agree that HKG is probably inevitable but don't really see any other opportunites. I think SEA is maxed out.

MEX - AM tried and dropped...poor loads
CUN- AS tried and dropped...low yields

I think AS could be successful with a SEA-GDL-MEX flight but airlines don't seem to do tag-on's like they used to. Fuel is too expensive for those short hops.
 
AS739BSI
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:20 am

As much as I would love to see further expansion of SEA International operations, we need a bigger FIS or a new international terminal. A north terminal is still in the most current master plan but the current project is rebuilding the north satellite for AS.
 
AirframeAS
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:31 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
6 gates...maybe 7.

I only count 4.... all 4 are on the west side of S. What are these 6-7 gates you speak of on S?? That's a lot of gates.

Quoting alexinwa (Reply 16):
UA HKG-SEA as an eventual replacement for NRT-SEA.

I would rather see UA do SEA-NRT on the 787.

Quoting AS739BSI (Reply 20):
A north terminal is still in the most current master plan but the current project is rebuilding the north satellite for AS.

True. The plan to extend the North Satellite has been around for the last 13 years or so, and they have not done anything about it yet. The plan was to have the North Satellite be the international arrivals alongside with the South Satellite continuing with the overflow. In additon to the plan, they were going to demolish the current fire station (seems like they rebuilt it or did some fancy upgrade to it) and some cargo buildings to expand the N concourse. I wonder what happened to that plan. It was the talk among the employees in 1998-1999 at AS on this subject.

Quoting AS739BSI (Reply 20):
we need a bigger FIS or a new international terminal.

Agreed! I think they need to stop international expansion until they get this FIS thing fixed or it is going to be declared a federal disaster area and broken beyond repair.
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:35 am

Quoting AS739BSI (Reply 20):
A north terminal is still in the most current master plan but the current project is rebuilding the north satellite for AS.

I didn't see any plans for an FIS facility when reading about the planned North satellite renovation for AS. Does anyone know if it is in the works?

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AirframeAS
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting tomassjc (Reply 22):
I didn't see any plans for an FIS facility when reading about the planned North satellite renovation for AS.

All I have read from the Seattle Times earlier this year is how the clusterbleep of the FIS is at SEA and the plans to expand it so it can solve some of the current problems. The only way to do it, according to the Port of Seattle, is to close two or three lanes at a time to remodel, in which I don't think is even a plan at all.
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gunsontheroof
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:36 am

Quoting alexinwa (Reply 16):
UA HKG-SEA as an eventual replacement for NRT-SEA.

Couldn't agree more. I fully expect UA to take that before DL does. I think SEA-NRT will stay. Look at IAD-NRT with both NH and UA.

Where's the feed going to come from? UA is a shadow of its former self at SEA and really doesn't offer much in the way of connecting opportunities. The situation is pretty much the reverse at DL. If SEA-HKG comes back, you can bet it will be on DL metal. I see no reason to believe that SEA features much in UA's future plans, let alone when it comes to international expansion. I'll be surprised if the NRT flight lasts much longer--with NH providing *A service now and DL going up to 2x daily, I have a hard time believing UA doesn't have a higher-yielding route to put that 777 on. I'd love to see all three carriers in the market, but I'm not optimistic that UA is going to be among those who end up fighting it out.

As for some of the other possibilities...

I doubt we'll see much in the way of expansion in Latin America anytime soon. We've had enough flops with direct service to cast doubt on viability in most markets and the connections at LAX via AS and partners (including LA) seem to be sufficient for what demand there is.

PVG seems like a strong candidate and another possible target for DL...if it does come to fruition, it will be interesting to see whether it's because DL jumped on it first with their existing fleet or if it's one of the Chinese carriers with the 787 (which I suspect will become the workhorse of SEA-Asia in the coming years.)

SYD could possibly happen with the 787, but I highly doubt it would be daily service and it might take some level of devestment in LAX by QF...SYD is probably an outsider at this point, but you never know...even the most optimistic of us didn't see EK coming this year...

Another possibility that I don't see mentioned much is YUL. This would almost certainly involve AC coming in with an E-jet and given what I suspect are easy connections via the currently-served YYZ (as well as YVR), it might well be a non-starter, small metal on AC or not.

It's been a good five or so years for SEA on the int'l scene...I agree that a new FIS is badly needed and will probably open up some new opportunities, but we might be sitting on what we have for a few years to come save for some small Western Canadian markets or something in Mexico if tourism picks up again. That's nothing to sneer at, SEA has done pretty damn good for itself recently.

**Edited for some small elaborations.

[Edited 2012-08-05 04:17:10]

[Edited 2012-08-05 04:18:21]

[Edited 2012-08-05 04:20:32]
 
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RWA380
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:02 am

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 24):
It's been a good five or so years for SEA on the int'l scene...I agree that a new FIS is badly needed and will probably open up some new opportunities, but we might be sitting on what we have for a few years to come save for some small Western Canadian markets or something in Mexico if tourism picks up again. That's nothing to sneer at, SEA has done pretty damn good for itself recently

I agree with everything you said, well put on each issue you addressed, SEA's geography makes it a natural point of entry, Asia flights will be the main-stay of International operations at SEA-TAC for a long time, DL will expand, UA will not.
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BA
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:06 pm

How is SEA-CDG doing ever since DL took over the route from AF?
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wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 10):
There are at least 11 international gates at Sea-Tac. Gates really aren't the problem. The custom's facility is small and gets filled quickly with just a couple of planes n the ground (and it's a really dumpy facility). SEA has a common use policy and I think international service trumps Delta (hence why they use B concourse gates during the mid day bank).

Good to know. I had always thought DL used all of their gates on the S-concourse, only leaving like 6 or 7 gates for other international carriers.

So, in terms of gates, SEA still has some expansion capacity left, even during the busiest bank. But the FIS facility is pretty overwhelmed.

Quoting cargolex (Reply 11):
HX HKG-SEA, as they want to expand expand expand. Cathay isn't interested, and they already have a tiny presence via sister airline Hianan.

That would CX for Cathay Pacific. Hainan flies to PEK from SEA. CX has a fairly large presence at YVR. It's understandable that CX wouldn't be interested.

Quoting cargolex (Reply 11):
LA SCL-SEA, but not for a long while. Another consideration might be Bogota via LAN Columbia. AM couldn't make SEA-MEX work, not sure if these routes would work either. LAN is a partner of Alaska, however, so they could secure feed that way in some respects.

Not that LA service to SEA is very likely, but I think they would do SEA-LIM-SCL using 787's.

I know that in the past, Shanghai Airlines and QANTAS had mentioned plans to fly SEA using 787's. But that was several years ago.

I would love to see the return of Aeroflot with 787's.

Here's a long shot...what about Yakutia Airlines extending its seasonal Russian Far East route to SEA. The tour group handling the Russian Far East tours is based out of Seattle and this has been done before.
 
EddieDude
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:14 pm

Quoting rwsea (Reply 6):
It would be nice to see MEX come back!

Maybe in a few years when the first 737-800MAX start arriving. They would allow AM to serve SEA with better economics.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:20 pm

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 12):
Seattle seems to have a large Vietnamese and Filipino population. Could SEA sustain flights to these countries?

Philippine Airlines has already expressed interest in flying to both SEA and SAN, when they become FAA Cat 1 certified. Vietnam Airlines also plans to serve the US west coast with either SFO or LAX being the first. SEA may come later...you just never know in this industry.

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 24):
PVG seems like a strong candidate and another possible target for DL...

The SEA-PVG route was on the top of list for Shanghai Airlines once they received their Dreamliners.
 
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ER757
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:50 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 27):
I would love to see the return of Aeroflot with 787's.

Me too - I miss seeing them here. Maybe when the 787's come on line - we could watch one of them line up for landing on Pac Highway again  
Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 29):
The SEA-PVG route was on the top of list for Shanghai Airlines once they received their Dreamliners.

I heard that too - I know it's pretty much an un-answerable question at this point, but wonder when they'll start receiving theirs   
 
cargolex
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:23 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 27):
That would CX for Cathay Pacific. Hainan flies to PEK from SEA. CX has a fairly large presence at YVR. It's understandable that CX wouldn't be interested.

No, I mean Hong Kong Airlines, HX. Hainan and HKA are part of the same company.
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 27):
That would CX for Cathay Pacific. Hainan flies to PEK from SEA. CX has a fairly large presence at YVR. It's understandable that CX wouldn't be interested.

Yeah, I think CX is probably out of the question for SEA. They're dug in pretty good at YVR and the lack of OneWorld connections at SEA doesn't help. Heck, I remember a few years ago when SEA got tons of ANC-bound cargo diversions because of volcanic activity in Alaska, CX was pretty much the only cargo carrier that went to YVR instead.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 27):
I would love to see the return of Aeroflot with 787's.

That's an interesting possibility that I hadn't thought of. Maybe the improvements in economics over the 767 that served that route could make it viable, but SEA Europe is pretty crowded right now and might be maxed out capacity-wise. Still, it would be cool to see SU return.
 
EddieDude
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:30 am

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 32):
Yeah, I think CX is probably out of the question for SEA. They're dug in pretty good at YVR and the lack of OneWorld connections at SEA doesn't help.

That is true. However, I don't remember very well, but a year or two ago there was a thread that discussed that CX might be interested in serving MEX but that it'd have to be one-stop due to distance, altitude, range, etc. It was mentioned in that thread that CX might try to get fifth freedom rights and do HKG-SEA-MEX.

[Edited 2012-08-05 17:58:56]
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:43 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 33):
That is true. However, I don't remember very well, but a year or two ago there was a thread that discussed that CX might be interested in serving MEX but that it'd have to be one-stop due to distance, altitude, range, etc. It was mentioned in that thread that CX might try to get fifth freedom rights and do HKG-SEA-MEX.

There were two other interested airlines in serving SEA-MEX, which were KE and Hainan. But it hasn't materialized.
 
blrsea
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:42 am

What does FIS stand for?
 
AS739BSI
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:56 am

Quoting blrsea (Reply 35):

Federal Inspection Services

CX isn't coming. It will be mostly Skyteam partners unless someone can do a route with O/D alone.
 
blrsea
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:03 am

Quoting AS739BSI (Reply 36):
Federal Inspection Services

Thanks, is that the immigration agents who screen passengers?

I hope CX comes to SEA. Maybe it would be feasible for them with the 787? TG too would be great, but I don't know if TG can fly to BKK without a refuelling stop.
 
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RWA380
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:37 am

Quoting blrsea (Reply 37):
TG too would be great, but I don't know if TG can fly to BKK without a refuelling stop

TG has flown to SEA before, leaving eventually for the greener pastures of LAX. I am not sure the range of the 787's TG is supposed to be receiving, but in the past, stops enroute to SEA included NRT, TPE, SEL on 742, 743 and M11 aircraft.
TG has not been able to make more than one US gateway work in the past, TG has flown to, and left DFW, JFK, SEA and YYZ. I don't see any reason for TG to return, although it would be cool.
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wedgetail737
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RE: International Service To SEA...What's Next?

Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting AS739BSI (Reply 36):
CX isn't coming.
Quoting blrsea (Reply 37):
I hope CX comes to SEA.

I think the chances of CX flying into SEA is pretty low, but possible. There are plenty of international airlines serving SEA on their own like Hainan, Asiana and Lufthansa.

Alaska has a codeshare agreement with CX. But the mere fact that CX has a large presence at YVR will provide the reason why CX isn't flying to SEA.

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