WarpSpeed
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787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:59 am

Boeing is in no hurry to offer the 787-10, according to Leeham.net who cites a Bloomberg report,

IIRC, there was recent Boeing chatter about the -10 getting board approval early in 2013 with EIS circa 2016 and that the 777-X was a bit further out.

However, as Leeham.net asks, does an end of decade EIS for the 787-10 mean the 777-X will debut sooner than expected? Seems reasonable that Boeing would want to have the 777-X ready sooner so it could compete with the A350-1000 as close to its EIS as possible rather than having it languish to the next decade.

Nevertheless, this must be good news for the A330-300.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ched-787-until-late-in-decade.html

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...7-10-to-come-later-than-suggested/

[Edited 2012-08-14 21:12:53]
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:01 am

Quoting WarpSpeed (Thread starter):

Boeing has plenty of time to do the -10. They have years of full production runs of the 787 and since they are basing the -10 off of the -9, they will get a lot more data once the -9 is flying and has been in the air a while. The -10 stretch really shouldn't swallow all that much in the way of resources.

The 777x, on the other hand, is a huge undertaking...most of the aircraft will be replaced or substituted with other materials.
What the...?
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:41 am

Quote:
The “end of the teens” is the likely target for the new Dreamliner’s entry into commercial service

What do they mean with the "end of the teens"?
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:46 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 2):
What do they mean with the "end of the teens"?

Just before 2020
 
columba
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:47 am

Good news is that the potential launch customer for the -10 has a fairly young widebody fleet and is able to wait as well  
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:05 am

The question is whether Boeing is reacting to a slower economy or just unable to marshall the resources to get the -10 project moving? After all, it is 2012 and where is the -9? It wasn't that long ago when Boeing was hinting that the launch of the -10 was close. Very disappointing.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:27 am

Quoting columba (Reply 4):
Good news is that the potential launch customer for the -10 has a fairly young widebody fleet and is able to wait as well

My first feeling was that the potential launch customer is in no hurry to order, therefore launch of the -10 is postponed.

And, slots for any 787 won't be available until at least 2018, and we've seen airlines are not really eager to order airplanes that far into the future.

Besides, the -10 is targeted against the A333, which main replacement cycle won't be in this decade anyway.

Quoting WarpSpeed (Thread starter):
However, as Leeham.net asks, does an end of decade EIS for the 787-10 mean the 777-X will debut sooner than expected? Seems reasonable that Boeing would want to have the 777-X ready sooner so it could compete with the A350-1000 as close to its EIS as possible rather than having it languish to the next decade.

Well, I'm sure EK would like to have the 777X sooner than 2019, but even with the 787-10 postponed I can't see how it can debut much sooner. It's as near to a new aircraft model as a derivative can be. GE and RR need the time as well to develop their new engines...
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:55 pm

The 777X is going to be first because I think it really needs to be. It would appear from the comments of EK and others that they need to see this airplane sooner than later. I just hope we dont have the delays and problems with the 777X that we all saw unfold on the 787.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:13 pm

Considering the number of A330-300s Airbus is selling, pushing back the 787-10 is probably a logical move. The A330-300 keeps increasing it's range, so it may be that Boeing wants the 787-10 to be a true B-Market aircraft like the 777-200ER, able to handle both regional and long-haul missions with equal aplomb.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:00 pm

Quoting KDAYflyer (Reply 7):
The 777X is going to be first because I think it really needs to be.

Well, that settles it then  
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WarpSpeed
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:10 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Considering the number of A330-300s Airbus is selling,

Might this suggest bringing the 787-10 to market sooner rather than later? Seems like Airbus will sell even more A333's without the -10 in its face.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
pushing back the 787-10 is probably a logical move....Boeing wants the 787-10 to be a true B-Market aircraft like the 777-200ER, able to handle both regional and long-haul missions with equal aplomb.

Do you imply that Boeing will use the time to increase the oft discussed (yet never truly defined) capabilities of the 787-10X with this "delay?" If so, what would they be willing to do? Part of the appeal to the -10X was that as a "simple" stretch, it would offer superior operating economics with minimal investment.

Overall, is Boeing confusing the marketplace (or just us anetters)"again" by this move? Consider the MAX vs. Y1 talk from Boeing management. Up to the AA announcement last summer, Boeing was pretty sure it would go "all new" rather than "re-do."

[Edited 2012-08-15 09:21:59]
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:52 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 6):
My first feeling was that the potential launch customer is in no hurry to order, therefore launch of the -10 is postponed

They said no new planes will be ordered for 2014, so this date seems likely for a 787-10X launch in the meantime Boeing can focus more on the 777X
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:03 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 10):
Might this suggest bringing the 787-10 to market sooner rather than later? Seems like Airbus will sell even more A333's without the -10 in its face.

The A350-900 and 787-9 appear to have the entire A340-300 replacement market as well as a fair bit of the 777-200ER replacement market in hand. The 240t A330-300X is going to play in this market, as well, while the 787-9 and 235t A330-300X takes care of the 777-200 replacement market. Airlines buying or taking via lease A330-300Xs are not going to be in the market to replace those planes for a decade, minimum.

I could also see a bit of skepticism on airline's part about Boeing getting the 787-9 into service to the latest schedule as well as meeting their production ramps. So as we've seen with the 777-300ER and the A350-1000, an A330-300X in the hand is worth two 787-10s in the bush.

If Boeing gets the 787-9 into the air next year and the certification looks issue-free and Boeing can push 8 787s a month out of the FALs by mid-year, then I think that might loosen up the airlines and push forward the 787-10X launch if, say, EK commits to 50.



Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 10):
Do you imply that Boeing will use the time to increase the oft discussed (yet never truly defined) capabilities of the 787-10X with this "delay?" If so, what would they be willing to do? Part of the appeal to the -10X was that as a "simple" stretch, it would offer superior operating economics with minimal investment.

If Boeing has to wait, they might as well put the time to good use.

The A330-300 launched weak, but consistently became more capable over time. So sales were weak to start, but continued to grow as the capabilities of the plane did.

The 787-10X will be like the 777-200ER - launching with strong capabilities that garnered the bulk of orders early in her life. Boeing was only able to gain performance improvements for the 777-200ER via aero tweaks and engine PiPs. As such, over time sales started to drop off and are now a relative trickle. Therefore, the lighter she is and the better the SFC of her engines at EIS, the stronger the product she'll be at launch and the better her sales chances in the first decade-plus, which is when she's most likely to score the bulk of her orders.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 4):
Good news is that the potential launch customer for the -10 has a fairly young widebody fleet and is able to wait as well
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 6):
My first feeling was that the potential launch customer is in no hurry to order, therefore launch of the -10 is postponed

Are you guys talking about LH by any chance?
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:46 pm

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 13):
Are you guys talking about LH by any chance?

  guilty as charged  
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Airboe
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 7:41 pm

I noticed in the Leeham blog:

[i]
“I am somewhat confused over something here. I was always under the impression that the 787-8 and -9 were supposed to be the A330 killers. Why has it now fallen on the 787-10 to kill the A330-300?”
[i]

        

And he is right!

I believe Boeing has experienced problems in the development og the 789, and then have to postpone the 787-10, and in the meantime harvest more experience.

Expect the 789 to be further delayed.
        
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
The A330-300 keeps increasing it's range, so it may be that Boeing wants the 787-10 to be a true B-Market aircraft like the 777-200ER, able to handle both regional and long-haul missions with equal aplomb.

I agree this is a real possibility. Projecting out where they think Airbus is going with the A330 they are starting to realise that the 787-10 inside the present MTOW limit of ~254t is not going to cut it. The changes they have made to the 789 under carriage from that of the 788 is as far as they can go. To make a further change will take time .
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:21 pm

Quoting airboe (Reply 15):
I noticed in the Leeham blog:

Well the 787-9 on it's own should eventually drive the A330-300 from the market, but the A350-900 and 787-10 will accelerate that.

Quoting airboe (Reply 15):
I believe Boeing has experienced problems in the development og the 789, and then have to postpone the 787-10, and in the meantime harvest more experience.

There are no indications of that at the present, but time will tell, I guess.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:39 pm

Quoting airboe (Reply 15):
Expect the 789 to be further delayed.

There is no evidence that this is so. Parts are already in production. Whether it's targeted weight can be hit from frame one is still an open question. So far as I know Boeing are saying nothing about whether they are on track on this one.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:45 am

787 production is ramping up with no major hiccups and the Everett line will have plenty of experience by then. Boeing has done the smart thing and taken the engineering in-house for the components that were the problem children on the 788, in fact, making them lighter in the process. The hard work is done, 789 will, in all likelihood, debut without major issues.
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:44 am

And the 787-10X is still an (A.net) wet dream. -10X needs significant work over the -9 which most people haven't grasped. Boeing has enough on its plate right now. I don't 'predict' EIS before 2020 if not 2022, and I don't make predictions.
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:32 am

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 20):

And the 787-10X is still an (A.net) wet dream. -10X needs significant work over the -9

? It does? Who says? Got a link? Some facts?

More than a few airlines have a use for a straight stretch of the 789.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:36 am

IMO the 787-10 needs more capability to be attractive to loyal A333 customers to make the change and retraining etc.

The warmed over A333 is good enough compared to the paper 787-10 we know today, sure it is a generation older but that is no problem seeing how airlines still order 737s..

I am very disappointed that Airbus didn't go neo with A330, engine pips and small tweaks..cheap for a overburdened OEM I guess. And would the A333 be too good the A358 would be dead.

Boeing has it easier, they want to replace the 772, Airbus must weigh A358s future and the current market share at the same time.

IMO Airbus is the one with the worst headache, how go about A330 and A350? The A350 is no 1:1 replacement for the A330 family.
 
TP313
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
The A330-300 keeps increasing it's range, so it may be that Boeing wants the 787-10 to be a true B-Market aircraft like the 777-200ER, able to handle both regional and long-haul missions with equal aplomb.

That "true B-Market aircraft" already exists: it is called A350-900, and has been selling rather well. I find it doubtful that Boeing will want to position the 787-10 in that market slot...
Also, I don't believe Airbus will continue to increase 330-300 capabilities, to the point where it starts to interfere with 350-900 sales.

Quoting sweair (Reply 22):
how go about A330 and A350? The A350 is no 1:1 replacement for the A330 family.

Neither is the 787-10. The 787-8 is a replacement for the 330-200, the 787-9 is a replacement for the 340-300, but there will not be a direct 330-300 replacement.

IMHO one of the following scenarios will happen:

1. Boeing will end up launching the 787-10, and in response airbus launches a sub-family of "medium"-range 350s. Let's call them the "-600" and the "-700". They would have, respectively, the same length of the -900 and the -1000, and weights and engine ratings close to those found in the -800 and the -900 (the "-700" would also feature the wing and - maybe - main landing gear of the -900). The 330-300 line will wind down and close.

2. Boeing gives up on the -10 and Airbus goes on selling the 330-300 with small improvements for the foreseeable future.
Maybe 350-1000 medium range variant is launched, depending on whether 777-300 (non ER) operators will ask for a direct replacement to be developed.

[Edited 2012-08-16 03:18:13]
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:49 pm

Quoting TP313 (Reply 23):
That "true B-Market aircraft" already exists: it is called A350-900, and has been selling rather well. I find it doubtful that Boeing will want to position the 787-10 in that market slot...

Boeing looks like they intend to bracket the A350-900 between the 787-10 and the 777-8.



Quoting sweair (Reply 22):
IMO the 787-10 needs more capability to be attractive to loyal A333 customers to make the change and retraining etc.

A 787-10 will carry more people and a heck of a lot more cargo (by volume) and should fly a fair bit farther with both than the 240t A330-300 at a slightly higher TOW with perhaps a slightly lower OEW and burning a fair bit less fuel. What more would an A330-300 operator want?



Quoting TP313 (Reply 23):
Boeing will end up launching the 787-10, and in response airbus launches a sub-family of "medium"-range 350s.

Airbus Spain (CASA) floated the idea of a "Regional A350" using the same airframe with a lower MTOW and de-rated engines (effectively what Boeing did with the 747-400D and will likely do with the 787-8 now that the 787-3 is dead). However, since there will be no reduction in OEW, the Boeing planes should have an advantage in that area.
 
TP313
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Boeing looks like they intend to bracket the A350-900 between the 787-10 and the 777-8.

I agree, but Boeing would only be able to do that if they keep the -10 a simple stretch.

If they grow its weight into "true B-Market aircraft", as you suggest, they will face a competition that is optimized for that market from the beginning... Again, not sure that is where Boeing wants to be...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Airbus Spain (CASA) floated the idea of a "Regional A350" using the same airframe with a lower MTOW and de-rated engines (effectively what Boeing did with the 747-400D and will likely do with the 787-8 now that the 787-3 is dead). However, since there will be no reduction in OEW, the Boeing planes should have an advantage in that area.

I beg to disagree, a "derated" -900 (to -800 thrust levels) should be pretty close to the -10 in weight and fuel burn, although the -10 would make extra revenue due to the cargo capacity advantage, with its extra LD3 positions.
A "derated" -1000 (to -900 thrust levels) would be obviously heavier than the -10, but, makes extra revenue from 10% more passengers. It has the advantage over a "derated" -900 of having an optimal wing for its weight.
Of course, in both cases (787-10 and 350-1000 "light") you have to be able to fill it (either in cargo, or in passengers) for such advantages to materialize.
That is why I think Airbus will respond to the -10 bringing both a -900 "light" and a -1000 "light". To bracket the -10, as you say.
Nevertheless, the -10 will be very competitive, provided Boeing keeps it a simple stretch. Not so much if Boeing adds weight in order to become "true B-Market aircraft".

[Edited 2012-08-16 07:54:33]
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:18 pm

I think the A350-1000 "lite" concept is interesting in that it would essentially be a "simple stretch" of the A350-900 and so much easier to do than a A350-900 "lite". It would however be a size bigger than the 787-10 and it is not clear today if there is a market for such a big regional airframe - but in 10 years' time, who knows?
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:19 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 19):
787 production is ramping up with no major hiccups and the Everett line will have plenty of experience by then. Boeing has done the smart thing and taken the engineering in-house for the components that were the problem children on the 788, in fact, making them lighter in the process. The hard work is done, 789 will, in all likelihood, debut without major issues.

This will be great to see if the trend continues into production.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:20 am

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 26):
I think the A350-1000 "lite" concept is interesting in that it would essentially be a "simple stretch" of the A350-900 and so much easier to do than a A350-900 "lite". It would however be a size bigger than the 787-10 and it is not clear today if there is a market for such a big regional airframe - but in 10 years' time, who knows?

But that's what the A350-1000XWB was originally, a simple stretch of the 900. However the ME carriers complained to AIrbus they wanted more range to make it a better successor to the 777-300ER, which they have done.
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:27 am

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 26):
I think the A350-1000 "lite" concept is interesting in that it would essentially be a "simple stretch" of the A350-900 and so much easier to do than a A350-900 "lite". It would however be a size bigger than the 787-10 and it is not clear today if there is a market for such a big regional airframe - but in 10 years' time, who knows?

The A350-1000 "lite", if it were to be produced, would be an excellent 777-300 'A' replacement, although admittedly that is a very small market and at present, only exists in Asia. Given the small market for a regional VLA, I don't think either Airbus or Boeing is going to invest too much into a direct replacement for the 777-300, so airlines wanting the capacity of the A350-1000 or 777-300 but not the range will end up having to "intelligently abuse" the A350-1000 on shorter missions as the 787-10 isn't quite going to be large enough.

So while I think the A350-1000 "lite" is going to be a terrific replacement for the 777-300, I don't think it'll be built, but rather airlines that need regional VLAs will end up buying the standard A350-1000 and "paper derate" it for regional missions, just like what SQ does with some of its 777-200ERs.
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astuteman
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:04 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
What more would an A330-300 operator want?

A plane that will have paid for itself by the time they can get hold of a 787-10?
Apart from that, you make a good point....  
Quoting vaus77w (Reply 28):
But that's what the A350-1000XWB was originally, a simple stretch of the 900

???
The A350-1000 was NEVER that   

It had a 30t higher MTOW from the start, necessitating alterations to both the wings and the engines over the A350-900, not to mention triple bogie main landing gear aso pposed to twin bogie on the A350-900.

This was never a simple stretch.

Rgds
 
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:21 am

The big question for any 350-950  (a 900 with the 1000 fuselage) would be how much lower OEW it would have then the -1000. Indications are the spec OEW for the -900 is around 135t when mature and the -1000 some 153t. That is a whopping 18t heavier. Now how much would a -950 weigh and given this number does it make sense?

A 950 have the MTOW from the -900 (same LG, wing and engines) but a slightly higher MZFW (otherwise you can't load the tube full). It would have a range of some 6800nm. 3 major components that stay the same are wing, LG and engines. Fuselage gets 10 frames longer or 6 meter. Lets say the fuse increase has a ballpark weight increase of 1t per meter, ie 6t. Then a bit this and that (more aircond, safety stuff etc) and we are at some 143-145t. I have modeled this frame and I seem to remember a 0.5% fuel burn gain per ton of OEW, so the 950 would burn 5% less fuel on the typical 10 hour trips over the -1000.

Now is a 10t gain in OEW and 5% fuel burn gain but less ultimate range worth the trouble of a new variant compared to abusing the -1000 on the 10 hour trips?

[Edited 2012-08-17 01:24:22]
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ferpe
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:36 am

I think it makes sense for B to delay the 787-10 and focus on the 777X. They own the 300+, 6000nm+ segment today and risk leaving the -1000 alone to long with a compelling +20% fuel burn. On the other hand they are well covered in the 230-300 pax range with the 788 and 789. There is no fault in avoiding producing totally overlapping models as long as you put yours in the lucrative spots  .

The -8X will undercut the -1000 i bit in size and would make sense for a -300ER, -9X or 788/789 operator (crew comonality with the 787 range), the -9X would be the king of the two-holers just as the -300ER is today. Not a to shabby proposition and you would quickly get the A350 program covered left, right and center   .

[Edited 2012-08-17 01:28:26]
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 8:31 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 31):
Now is a 10t gain in OEW worth the trouble of a new variant compared to abusing the -1000?

How much is the difference between a 773 and a 77W? As soon as the 77W had its EIS, the 773 stopped selling and was eventually removed from Boeing's portfolio. And we've soon EK 'abusing' 77W's even though they already had a 773 fleet. So, IMHO, a short ranged A350-1000 is a non-starter....
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:20 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 31):
A 950 have the MTOW from the -900 (same LG, wing and engines) but a slightly higher MZFW (otherwise you can't load the tube full). It would have a range of some 6800nm. 3 major components that stay the same are wing, LG and engines. Fuselage gets 10 frames longer or 6 meter. Lets say the fuse increase has a ballpark weight increase of 1t per meter, ie 6t. Then a bit this and that (more aircond, safety stuff etc) and we are at some 143-145t. I have modeled this frame and I seem to remember a 0.5% fuel burn gain per ton of OEW, so the 950 would burn 5% less fuel on the typical 10 hour trips over the -1000.

Now is a 10t gain in OEW and 5% fuel burn gain but less ultimate range worth the trouble of a new variant compared to abusing the -1000 on the 10 hour trips?


Well, the very same point can be made when comparing the 787-10 to the 350-900.

And you might well be right, for that would pretty much explain Boeing's move to delay the -10 launch to a vaguely defined later date (if ever).
 
vaus77w
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:50 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
???
The A350-1000 was NEVER that

It had a 30t higher MTOW from the start, necessitating alterations to both the wings and the engines over the A350-900, not to mention triple bogie main landing gear aso pposed to twin bogie on the A350-900.

This was never a simple stretch.

Rgds

Oh right I must have remembered incorrectly. My bad.
 
parapente
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:02 am

Frankly reply 1 seems to answer this question best.

"Boeing has plenty of time to do the -10. They have years of full production runs of the 787 and since they are basing the -10 off of the -9, they will get a lot more data once the -9 is flying and has been in the air a while. The -10 stretch really shouldn't swallow all that much in the way of resources.

The 777x, on the other hand, is a huge undertaking...most of the aircraft will be replaced or substituted with other materials."

There are no no slots for 787's until 2018 ar the earliest.And remeber this is assuming the production ramp up that has so far failed to meet targets. IMHO 2020 is a far more realistic expectation.And this is (wrongly) assuming no more orders for the 2 existing models. (There will be a shed load more orders for the -9).

As stated the 777X is a huge undertaking. But more than this it is the more pressing undertaking with the 350-1000 getting closer and gaining traction and orders.

Furthermore there is absolutly no point in rushing out a -10 that is not that much better than the new 330-300X.
This aircraft will (quote Airbus) can for instance be able to cover 90% of Heathrow missions including the west coast of the USA to the East coast of Japan.

Furthermore..."Airbus is considering adapting its new 'sharklet' wing-tip for the A330 twinjet, a decision which could extend the life of the programme as the airframer continues to develop its A350".As posted in Flightglobal in Jan.

That would be what? Another 3% efficiency at least. None of which requiring any fundamental re engineering of the aircraft (the wings are stressed for winglets allready).

Finally Boeing know (B747-8) that an existing state of the art engine already exists that could be put on this aircraft if needs be.

Nope, better concentrate on the imediate threat in hand (351) and continue to develop and understand the 789.So as stated they have no spare 787 production capacity they would not be 'loosing' as single order.Both companies enjoy a fantastic duopoly.It really does not make any sense for either to go 'hammer and tongs' at each other.ie

Do you really think they mind that much when one - or the other gets a MAX or NEO order -that they could not fulfill anyway - I don't think so - not that they would ever say it publically!
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:31 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 33):
How much is the difference between a 773 and a 77W?

10 tons in terms of OEW and 50 tons in terms of TOW.
 
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Pellegrine
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:24 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 21):
? It does? Who says? Got a link? Some facts?

More than a few airlines have a use for a straight stretch of the 789.

Looks like I was right Mr. Wagon       :

Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why? (by rotating14 Aug 23 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Your links, facts, and guillotine.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
sweair
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:36 am

The 787-10 is replacing the 772? Is it really 1:1? It lacks the range IMO. Maybe they will do a ER version in the future like the 772 got?
 
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rotating14
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:41 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):

I believe the -10 is a supplement to the -9. Carriers who want more capacity and less range than the -9 will IMHO order the -10. I could and may well be wrong though
 
CXB77L
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:46 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
The 787-10 is replacing the 772? Is it really 1:1? It lacks the range IMO. Maybe they will do a ER version in the future like the 772 got?

The 787-10X seems to be aimed at the mid range 777-200 'A' replacement, along with the A330-300 replacement market. The 787-9 appears to be the 777-200ER replacement.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:14 pm

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 38):
Looks like I was right Mr. Wagon.      

Boeing dismissed that article - http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archive.../2012/08/absolutely_committed.html



Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
The 787-10 is replacing the 772? Is it really 1:1? It lacks the range IMO. Maybe they will do a ER version in the future like the 772 got?

The 787-10 looks to be designed to serve the lower end of B-Market missions - out to around 6000nm / 11,000km.

The 777-200ER is designed to serve the upper end - out to 7500nm / 14,000km.
 
phxa340
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:30 pm

Is it possible that Boeing hasn't really slowed down developement or pushed anything back, but instead some influential (And loud and sometimes abrasive) ME CEO's want them faster than Boeing can develop and build and thus have voiced their dissapointment.
 
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rotating14
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 43):
Is it possible that Boeing hasn't really slowed down developement or pushed anything back, but instead some influential (And loud and sometimes abrasive) ME CEO's want them faster than Boeing can develop and build and thus have voiced their dissapointment.

I think that is very much the case.    But on the flip side they should know if they want a first class product its not going to be slapped together and held together w/duct tape. Reality is in short supply over there I guess.   
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:30 pm

If I was Boeing, I would not be committing to the 787-10X (or the 777X) if EK was the one doing the jawing unless they backed up the talk with a large deposit check.

Tim Clark for years spoke about possibly ordering the 747-8 if Boeing did this or Boeing did that, but when Boeing finally got close to what he wanted, he then publicly stated he'd never order the plane.   

By all means, keep them in the loop and seriously consider their input, but "caveat tekton" ("let the builder beware")...  Smile

[Edited 2012-08-24 11:32:31]
 
LH707330
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):
Tim Clark for years spoke about possibly ordering the 747-8 if Boeing did this or Boeing did that, but when Boeing finally got close to what he wanted, he then publicly stated he'd never order the plane.

TC wanted the originally-proposed 748i with the 3 meter stretch and the 8300 nm range so EK could do a n/s DXB-LAX mission with a full payload. LH didn't need the range and asked for more seats in the 5.6 m/8000 nm option. Boeing thought it would be convenient to have the same length as the 748F for the BCF market down the road, and when LH backed that up by ordering 20 copies, that was it. At that point, TC was no longer interested in the heavier/shorter range model because it didn't suit that mission profile.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:07 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 46):
At that point, TC was no longer interested in the heavier/shorter range model because it didn't suit that mission profile.

I continue to believe that EK was never serious about the 747-8 because it would have had a "shelf life" in the fleet of a handful of years to service DXB-LAX/SFO until the 573t TOW A380-800 became available and supplanted it.

After all, if Clark really wanted the shorter plane, all he had to do was order at least 20 of them.  
 
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SQ22
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
After all, if Clark really wanted the shorter plane, all he had to do was order at least 20 of them.

Do you think by doing this, there wouldnt have been not only a 747-8 but maybe a 747-9 too flying around?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 EIS Moving To The Right, 777-X Up Next?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:38 pm

Quoting SQ22 (Reply 48):
Do you think by doing this, there wouldnt have been not only a 747-8 but maybe a 747-9 too flying around?

I'm inclined to think LH would have accepted the shorter model.