nomorerjs
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EK And ORD, Too Late?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:54 pm

EY is established in Chicago, QR has been marketing in Chicago and has recently announced ORD-DOH starting in April '13. Has EK missed the boat (Google Tim Clark / Chicago and he states "the market is there," but EY and QR are there and he is not.) Will EK pull and IAD and be in ORD a few days before EY (in this case QR? Is the market big enough for all three? Can AI survive (now via FRA)? UA and AA seem to have no intent on ORD to the Gulf, is there room for the big 3 on high density 77Ws?
 
Cipango
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:00 am

Plenty of room for EK. EK have more destinations to connect to through DXB. And of course their aggressive campaigning.
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Lufthansa
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:04 am

Quoting cipango (Reply 1):
Plenty of room for EK. EK have more destinations to connect to through DXB. And of course their aggressive campaigning.

And we have a winner. They have the best hub at the other end which gives them a big advantage. Not to mention the more desirable stop over city at the same time. My guess is though they are focusing on their other cities like DFW and SEA etc first because of probably better yields there. We have seen it plenty of times before in Europe, were EK can send the 77W multiple times daily or even the A380 when EY or QR are only sending a 332, and fill it. Or were one of the other two came in first to a city and EK turns up and quickly becomes the favorite. It's the strength of its hub and network.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:10 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 2):
And we have a winner. They have the best hub at the other end which gives them a big advantage. Not to mention the more desirable stop over city at the same time.

Absolutely right, but we also have to remember that at some point, EK is going to have to be in Chicago because Chicago is too large a city on the global stage for EK to be absent. I really like Seattle, but I can't argue with a straight face that Seattle is more important globally than Chicago. If EK wants to be the carrier of choice for folks connecting through DXB from Asia and Australia, it needs to fly to the cities that those folks want to visit.
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ASA
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:08 am

There is no market too big or too late for EK ... when they feel like coming, they'll come ... and MAKE their market!   
 
ORDJOE
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:18 pm

SEA got it as they EK is the only player. for ORD it is tough to say, in addition to EK and EY you have TK and RJ and all the EU airlines. Asia is well covered and from ORD it quicker to get to OZ through LAX. Never say never, but I am not holding my breath especially with qr coming in. If EK came Wonder if they would use the smaller 77L over the 77W.
 
hz747300
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:01 pm

How about PHX?  

6th largest in the US, no? Why not, they can grab all that PHX/TUS -> DXB to Africa / Middle East, South Asia traffic. A345?

Realistically, EK creates the market in most places. My friend is going home to London for X-mas, and he is getting two B-Class tix for only HK$70k total with taxes on EK. Keeps the planes full, and I bet they still clear breakeven pretty early.
Keep on truckin'...
 
something
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:17 pm

You are looking at it the wrong way. You see airline x and y serve a certain market and wonder why airline z isn't. It is simply because airline x and y are already there. The more competition an airline faces, the less profitable a certain route will be for it. At the time EY entered the ORD market, I'm sure EK would have liked to serve it too but were short of aircraft to accomodate this, as all of their existing fleet had already been allocated to more profitable markets than ORD.

Joining the round last will put EK at a certain disadvantage in terms of market-exposure compared to its competitors. However, the Emirates brand as a whole is a much bigger name than EY and QR combined; EK serves a lot more destinations at a lot higher frequencies and most importantly, they can just undercut both other carrier's fares. Slight initial disadvantage that can be easily overcome.

Emirates will eventually serve ORD, along with what seems like every other city on earth, but it'll probably take them another year to launch it. With the A388 wing crack fix in full swing, their 77W fleet is over-utilized as it is, new deliveries have already been assigned new missions and older aircraft like the A343 or A345 have outdated cabins for these long routes. Emirates will strengthen in presence in markets it currently dominates by increasing the frequency and it will continue opening up lucrative routes the competition hasn't entered yet. ORD is definitely among them, but due to the limiting factor that is aircraft deliveries it will take some while to materialize. On a sidenote, if I were them I'd probably open DTW before ORD but I doubt that this is going to happen.
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IrishAyes
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:20 pm

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
Can AI survive (now via FRA)?

AI is a disaster, and will continue to be as long as it is government-propped. This really isn't breaking news. Then again, on the flip side of the argument, without the support of the GOI, could AI survive on its own? Very debatable question, probably meant for a separate discussion.

Regardless, back to the original topic, I doubt that AI will do anything to their ORD operations unless the entire company goes under, even though it is a heavily loss-making route.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
UA and AA seem to have no intent on ORD to the Gulf,

Because there is no need. UA concentrates its Middle East/Africa flights out of its hubs at EWR and IAD, and I think the odds of AA going into that region anytime soon, least of all launching such flights from ORD, stand no chances right now.

The short answer to your question is yes, ORD will be served by all three at some point. Question is not matter of it, but when.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
jcwr56
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:42 pm

AI is going back to the non stop, so the days via FRA are over. Also, I could see them using the 787 on this route in the event EK enters the market.

As to quote Brazil when they were presenting the 2016 Olympics..."Look at the Map", there's this huge hole in the middle of the U.S. map.

EK has to know in any event taking on UA/LH and AA/BA hub city is something they'll take a close look at. Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

They will have to flood the Midwest with PR and price right. No doubt the 2 Alliances are not going to sit, watch and welcome this carrier with open arms.
 
jcwr56
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:38 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
This is a really stupid comment that makes absolutely zero sense. What kind of generalizing statement is this???????

Head out to the farm lands IA, IL, KS, WI, IN and ask if they've heard of United or American Airlines and then ask if they heard of Emirates. Then the comment isn't as stupid is it appears.

You being a savvy traveler knows who they (EK) are. Most don't in middle America...I just spent 10 days doing a wonderful road trip and over time being ask where you from, what you do and such...it really opened my eyes just how sheltered a good portion of this country is to international air travel.
 
cricket
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:46 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 8):
AI is a disaster, and will continue to be as long as it is government-propped.

Fair enough, but EK's american routes would collapse if to save AI, the Government of India got as anal as the Germans and French and restricted EK, EK started with India and survives on India.
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kngkyle
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:56 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 9):
Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

And these are not the kind of people that would travel to Asia in the first place. Your generalization of the middle of the country as being uncultured flyover country is offensive. If that is not what you meant then I apologize, but that is what it comes across as.

Chicago has about the same GDP as London and Paris, and is ranked an Alpha+ world city, the same level as Tokyo. To suggest that EK will have trouble with a flight to Chicago because there are a lot of farmers in the midwest is ridiculous.

I don't think EK would have much trouble at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see A380 service on ORD-DXB within 5 years.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:05 pm

Quoting Cricket (Reply 11):
Fair enough, but EK's american routes would collapse if to save AI, the Government of India got as anal as the Germans and French and restricted EK, EK started with India and survives on India.

So Germany offering nearly 50x weekly slots to EK is apparently "anal" and "restrictive" ?
 
ASA
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:14 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 9):
EK has to know in any event taking on UA/LH and AA/BA hub city is something they'll take a close look at. Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

Is the Peoria family even the target demographic for EK in ORD ?!! I highly doubt it.

Their main target will be the huge number of Asians - just like the other US destinations. If you fly EY/EK/QR/TK from any of the US destinations they serve, you'll get the picture. If savvy business travelers already know EK as you say ... then EK's job is already done!  
 
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BasilFawlty
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:18 pm

It's not too late, they can step in at a later time then the competition and still make it a success, like they did with DUB for example.
'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
 
solarflyer22
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:56 pm

Quoting something (Reply 7):
I'd probably open DTW before ORD but I doubt that this is going to happen.

Bingo! There is a huge Arab population in the DTW area so why not just go there? ORD does make sense as those two hubs have to connect eventually. It's a perfect A380 route but competition could be fierce with UA, LH, QY and AI. I am sure they will make it there but I don't think it will be a cash cow. I do think they are near their fleet capacity until more of those A380s arrive and the wings are fixed. For the next 6 months at least they have to be completely packed. Remember, some of the original 777s for EK are nearing 10 years old and will soon be sub par for them on top of replacing the A34x series.
 
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mercure1
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:37 am

With large Indian populations in NY, SFO, ORD, LA, DC, and Dallas. It would seem ORD is a good choice for most of the Gulf carriers, who run a good bit of VFR traffic. Room for AI/EY/QR/TK and then EK, hmm could be too crowded. But will be interesting to watch.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:00 am

Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?
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solarflyer22
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:32 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 18):
Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?

Probably but it seems like its not used. That would be great though. ORD to latin American and then on to Dubai or somewhere.
 
777way
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:32 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 16):

Arent those mainly from levant region and not the Gulf, would they like to back track?
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 18):
Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?
Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 19):
Probably but it seems like its not used. That would be great though. ORD to latin American and then on to Dubai or somewhere.

There's no reason for EK to do this. Why should they care about maintaining any market presence in the ORD-Latin American corridor? Their business model is centered around creating a massive hub-and-spoke network with Dubai as their global transit center. ORD-Latin America is completely out of scope within that context. Such a questionable business decision would be likely result to be very costly and highly unprofitable.

EK's current tag-on routes exist because their aircraft does not have the range capabilities to serve them nonstop from DXB (i.e. CHC and AKL come to mind) and/or they could be linked to other new startup routes in the same geographic region to develop the markets without stretching their fleet (such as DXB-GIG-EZE).

Other than that, EK has no need/interest in venturing into the 5th freedom space. If they want to expand their footprint in Latin America, they can do so without the need to route through ORD, which would involve significant backtracking and require more resources than necessary. Moreover, ORD-Latin American routes are quite long and thin. There's a reason why there is only a single daily flight currently in existence that flies to the entire South American continent (excluding Mexico and Central America) from Chicago.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
luckyone
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:30 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 10):
Head out to the farm lands IA, IL, KS, WI, IN and ask if they've heard of United or American Airlines and then ask if they heard of Emirates. Then the comment isn't as stupid is it appears.
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
Moreover, ORD-Latin American routes are quite long and thin. There's a reason why there is only a single daily flight currently in existence that flies to the entire South American continent (excluding Mexico and Central America) from Chicago.

The Latin population in Chicago is overwhelmingly Mexican and Puerto Rican. Unlike other cities there isn't much else, and there aren't a great deal of cultural or business ties between Chicago and South America, yet anyway.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: EK And ORD, Too Late?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:29 am

Quoting luckyone (Reply 22):
The Latin population in Chicago is overwhelmingly Mexican and Puerto Rican. Unlike other cities there isn't much else, and there aren't a great deal of cultural or business ties between Chicago and South America, yet anyway.

You are correct that indeed the majority of the Latin American demographic in the city hails from Mexico and Puerto Rico. However, there are plenty of business ties between Chicago and other Latin American countries: virtually every Central and South American nation has a Foreign Consulate General in the City. Of course, such ties aren't enough to warrant consistent business traffic on nonstop flights beyond 1-stop connections via IAH, ATL, MIA, DFW, MEX, PTY, etc.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.

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