wedgetail737
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International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:47 pm

Hello, everyone!

As carriers around the globe increasingly take delivery of 787's and later A350's, could we be seeing some sort of international "invasion" of carriers into the US? What I mean is that I think we're seeing some of it with NH to SEA and SJC. Likewise, JL serving BOS and SAN... Could we see less common international airlines like China Southern, China Eastern or even Sichuan Airlines start service to less conventional hubs in the US? Also, I'm not limiting this conversation to Asian carriers...I just used them as examples.
 
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Stitch
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:52 pm

It depends on regulatory issues and slot availability at airports, but yes, the 787 is opening up new routes (mostly hub to spoke) and I am sure the A350 will, as well.
 
kl911
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:11 pm

EU - USA is now open skies, so who knows. The possibility is there, now see who gets the A350 / 787 and for what routes.
Personally, with high fuel prices and fuel running out, I think the hub and spoke system will win in the end, and p2p not.
 
spink
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:40 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 2):
EU - USA is now open skies, so who knows. The possibility is there, now see who gets the A350 / 787 and for what routes.
Personally, with high fuel prices and fuel running out, I think the hub and spoke system will win in the end, and p2p not.

p2p is less about hub and spoke than it is about hub-hub-spoke.
 
jfk777
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:52 pm

International routes have evolved as smaller planes like the 767 flew further and over water, the 787 will open up many more routes. The 777 has done wonders the 747 never could, look at Emirates and Qatar, where the hell did they come from. Asia-Pacific is the one last region to get the point to point flights the Atlantic got 20 years ago. But economic growth has a large part to play in ths evolution, airlines like Ethiopian couldn't do what they plan to do with 787 if the third world was noy growing economically. East Africa, China and Latin America have ever expanding international routes beyond the traditional ones to their European colonial motherlands, Miami, JFK or in China's case routes to Peking and Shanghai.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:13 am

EK may make DXB-SAT/MCI/MEM/CHS/LIT one day... not.

However DXB-LAS may actually work sooner rather than later... Alliance wise, Asian, African, South American, and European Star members may make XXX-PHL/DEN/IAH work, CLT is a long shot but still wouldn't be crazy hard. Oneworld would be XXX-DFW, AMM-DFW comes to mind, but with EK's DXB-DFW, your answer is as good as mine. Skyteam would be XXX-SLC/SEA/DTW/MSP.

I think the next up-and-coming markets are from the US-Russia and US-Brazil. S7 is in Oneworld, and when AA is out of bankruptcy, I expect some big things to happen there, same with Star and UT Air. Right now, AA is huge in Brazil from MIA, DL can make some US-inland Brazil work, (aren't they doing that right now?), so naturally the next places for massive US-Brazil expansion are NYC and IAH.

Just my   
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jfk777
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:54 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
I think the next up-and-coming markets are from the US-Russia and US-Brazil. S7 is in Oneworld, and when AA is out of bankruptcy, I expect some big things to happen there, same with Star and UT Air. Right now, AA is huge in Brazil from MIA, DL can make some US-inland Brazil work, (aren't they doing that right now?), so naturally the next places for massive US-Brazil expansion are NYC and IAH

Delta flies to GRU from JFK, ATL daily plus Detroit a few times weekly. New York has had flights to Brazil long before Air Conditioning arrived in Miami, JFK has had Brazil flights since Pan AM was flying. US airlines today are flying to Brazil from their main hubs the way they started flying to London around 1980.

AA is almost unique among US airlines since it flies to Brazil from the traditional Miami and JFK gateways but DFW too. AA in Sao Paulo is getting to be huge with up to 8 flights daily most by 777.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:09 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):
Delta flies to GRU from JFK, ATL daily plus Detroit a few times weekly. New York has had flights to Brazil long before Air Conditioning arrived in Miami, JFK has had Brazil flights since Pan AM was flying. US airlines today are flying to Brazil from their main hubs the way they started flying to London around 1980.

I was talking about the secondary markets like Fortaleza, Brasilia, Manaus, Florianopolis, etc... Like I said, AA is huge to those markets from MIA, and DL at ATL is going on as well.
Not every day we find light winds. What do we do in these situations? Fly.
 
SCL767
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:11 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
DL can make some US-inland Brazil work, (aren't they doing that right now?

DL operates ATL-BSB and used to operate ATL-MAO in the past.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):
Delta flies to GRU from JFK, ATL daily plus Detroit a few times weekly.

DTW-GRU operates daily.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):
AA in Sao Paulo is getting to be huge with up to 8 flights daily most by 777.

AA currently operates 5 daily flights into GRU but will soon increase frequency and capacity on certain routes into GRU. TAM currently operates 6 daily flights into the U.S. from GRU and will begin to increase capacity into the U.S. starting next month using the B77W.
 
Av8rDAL
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:51 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
DL operates ATL-BSB and used to operate ATL-MAO in the past.

DL uses the 757-200ER on ATL-BSB and used to send their new 737-700 into MAO.

Their -700 is also a gateway opener, esp. in Latin America markets with short runways and/or limited demand. Not to mention it has good range. I think it's capped somewhere around 3000-3500 miles, right?
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hooverman
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:58 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Thread starter):

Everything is possible but I don't think there will be an invassion.
Just like the A340-500 and 777LR didn't cause a Long range invassion anywhere neither.
Not the same but still I think most carriers will stay conservative and not open "exotic" routes
 
jfk777
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:01 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
AA in Sao Paulo is getting to be huge with up to 8 flights daily most by 777.


AA currently operates 5 daily flights into GRU but will soon increase frequency and capacity on certain routes into GRU. TAM currently operates 6 daily flights into the U.S. from GRU and will begin to increase capacity into the U.S. starting next month using the B77W.

With 2 JFK daily, 2 DFW and 4 Miami's AA get to 8, this fall on some days they will fly 8 times daily to Sao Paulo, the Latin Heathrow and JFK.
 
roseflyer
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:11 pm

The same thing that has happened to the UK can happen. BA has lost the UK international market from all airports other than LHR. Smaller international markets are typically served by overseas international airlines rather than national international airlines. The reasons is how the hub and spoke system works. BA tried MAN-JFK service, however they always struggled compared to other airlines. The reason is that BA has to depend exclusively on O/D because they have no connections in either JFK or MAN. AA on the other hand has a hub at JFK and can carry MAN-JFK-XXX in addition to O/D traffic. BA serve the same traffic via MAN-LHR-XXX, so they are at a competitive disadvantage offering long haul flights from MAN because only markets with extremely high O/D make sense, and if MAN had enough O/D to have that many long haul markets, BA would have had a regional feed network. Very few airlines able to operate multiple hubs with international traffic outside the US, China and India because those markets are markets have big domestic demand.

The same thing can happen with the US. The US has a strong domestic network and multiple airlines and hubs, so most large markets have a hub by one of the 4 international airlines in the US. However there are a few markets that don't such as SAN, BOS, MCO, LAS. These markets therefore are served by overseas airlines rather than US airlines. The 787 opens up some new markets to Asia. It doesn't do anything for transatlantic markets, but it does allow fragmenting which is why we are seeing the Japanese airlines enter into US markets that they had not served before.
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ORDJOE
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:18 pm

I remember about 8 years ago when the 787s were being planned and conceived people were thinking we would start to see STL-NRT or other exotic routes like that, how that view has changed. I am sure it might start some new routes and city pairings, but I would not wait for anything drastic. Could see SAN, IND, LAS, SEA, BOS, maybe get an extra route here and there.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:26 pm

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 13):
I remember about 8 years ago when the 787s were being planned and conceived people were thinking we would start to see STL-NRT or other exotic routes like that, how that view has changed. I am sure it might start some new routes and city pairings, but I would not wait for anything drastic. Could see SAN, IND, LAS, SEA, BOS, maybe get an extra route here and there.

Well, you also have to temper those notions with the fact that the 787 has encountered significant delays over the course of those 8 years and as a result of this, the expectations have shifted dramatically. Right now, there are very few 787s in service and as they trickle in, some of those more obscure routes may eventually open up, but they have been moved to the back burner in favor of the lower hanging fruit.
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ASA
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:14 pm

Quoting hooverman (Reply 10):
Everything is possible but I don't think there will be an invassion.
Just like the A340-500 and 777LR didn't cause a Long range invassion anywhere neither.
Not the same but still I think most carriers will stay conservative and not open "exotic" routes

I actually see this differently. [an euphemism for "I beg to differ!" ]

How is the EK / QR / TK / EY etc buildup over the last decade (using the 345, 346, 388, 77W, 77L) anything sort of a long-range "invasion" ?!!

EK has built up JFK ... added IAH, LAX, SFO ... even SEA, DFW ... and now IAD

QR started low ... but now has JFK, IAD, IAH ... and soon ORD

TK barely had 1x JFK ... now has 3x JFK ... along with ORD, LAX, IAD ... and soon IAH

EY also following along with JFK and ORD

KE adding a 388 to ATL !!!

SQ going SIN-DME-IAH ... and non-stop to LAX

JL and NH swarming above BOS, SAN, SJC, SEA ... and UA adding DEN-NRT

Who would have thought all these 12+ hour flights directly from middle east 10 years ago?!!!

This is very much a 'long-range invasion' if you ask me!   




Edited: sorry, EY does not serve DFW ... yet Big grin

[Edited 2012-08-20 09:16:18]
 
hooverman
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:37 pm

Quoting ASA (Reply 15):
How is the EK / QR / TK / EY etc buildup over the last decade (using the 345, 346, 388, 77W, 77L) anything sort of a long-range "invasion" ?!!

I was talking specifically about the 77L and 345 and I should have said ULTRA long haul, the reason these airplanes where put on the market.
I only see SQ with SIN - EWR and SIN - LAX and EK with DXB - LAX as ULH.
And I believe the SQ routes were flown before with a fuel stop somewhere so no new route.
But you are right, the middle eastern airlines have impressed with their expansion.

Quoting ASA (Reply 15):
JL and NH swarming above BOS, SAN, SJC, SEA ... and UA adding DEN-NRT

BOS and SEA are not secondary destinations in my opinion ( are they?).
Didn't UA fly DEN - NRT before?
We'll see how many of these routes will actually be flown and for how long.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:35 pm

Quoting hooverman (Reply 16):
BOS and SEA are not secondary destinations in my opinion ( are they?).
Didn't UA fly DEN - NRT before?
We'll see how many of these routes will actually be flown and for how long.

The new routes to BOS and SEA are not so much secondary as they are unique in the fact that no carrier has stepped in to serve BOS-Asia or SEA-Middle East routes previously.

DENNRT has never been served before.
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ScottB
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:18 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 17):
The new routes to BOS and SEA are not so much secondary as they are unique in the fact that no carrier has stepped in to serve BOS-Asia

BOS-Asia was served in the 1990's by KE as part of a SEL-BOS-IAD triangular routing.

Quoting kl911 (Reply 2):
Personally, with high fuel prices and fuel running out, I think the hub and spoke system will win in the end, and p2p not.

The model enabled by the 787/777/A350 is more along the lines of spoke-hub-spoke, rather than the VLA model of spoke-hub-hub-spoke. Instead of flying BOS-ORD-NRT-SGN, one can fly BOS-NRT-SGN instead. The 757 has done the same to the transatlantic market by opening non-stop routes from smaller European cities to the United States.

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 13):
I remember about 8 years ago when the 787s were being planned and conceived people were thinking we would start to see STL-NRT or other exotic routes like that

STL-NRT might have happened had the AA hub not been shut down. But by the same token, Delta has used the A332 & 767 to open routes like SLC-CDG and SLC-NRT, which were probably unthinkable 20 years ago.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 18):
BOS-Asia was served in the 1990's by KE as part of a SEL-BOS-IAD triangular routing.

You're right - sorry, forgot about that one. It was dropped so long ago, I did not remember it  
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jumpjets
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:12 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 18):
The 757 has done the same to the transatlantic market by opening non-stop routes from smaller European cities to the United States.

Yes indeed like flying to small airports such as LHR [UA and AA]- or did you mean flying from Europe to smaller US airports like EWR and BOS?  
 
Tdan
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:30 pm

You'll definitely see an international "invasion" in IAH/HOU as a result of UA's hissy fit   
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BLRAviation
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:30 am

Quoting kl911 (Reply 2):
EU - USA is now open skies, so who knows. The possibility is there, now see who gets the A350 / 787 and for what routes.

The US has signed open skies agreements with many countries. With the newer aircraft, these countries are beginning to use their agreements, while US carriers are still stuck using older aircraft, and even older network strategies.

Quoting ASA (Reply 15):
SQ going SIN-DME-IAH ... and non-stop to LAX

SQ used to operate SIN-AMS-ORD but stopped it due to poor loads.
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ScottB
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:38 am

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 20):
Yes indeed like flying to small airports such as LHR [UA and AA]- or did you mean flying from Europe to smaller US airports like EWR and BOS?

The use of the 757 between EWR/BOS and LHR rather shows that frequency really is important in medium-haul routes like NYC/BOS-LON. But I was referring to cities like HAM, EDI, GLA, BFS, BRS, STR, AGP, VLC, GVA, etc. It works both ways in that 757's also have provided (some successfully, some not) transatlantic service to secondary American markets like PIT, CLE, and BDL.
 
Viscount724
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:15 pm

Quoting BLRAviation (Reply 22):
Quoting kl911 (Reply 2):
EU - USA is now open skies, so who knows. The possibility is there, now see who gets the A350 / 787 and for what routes.

The US has signed open skies agreements with many countries.

Currently over 100 countries.
 
hooverman
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 pm

Quoting BLRAviation (Reply 22):
SQ used to operate SIN-AMS-ORD but stopped it due to poor loads.

I believe the route was changed to SIN-FRA-ORD.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 17):
The new routes to BOS and SEA are not so much secondary as they are unique in the fact that no carrier has stepped in to serve BOS-Asia or SEA-Middle East routes previously.

Which middle eastern airline is flying the 787 to SEA?
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:50 pm

Quoting hooverman (Reply 25):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 17):
The new routes to BOS and SEA are not so much secondary as they are unique in the fact that no carrier has stepped in to serve BOS-Asia or SEA-Middle East routes previously.

Which middle eastern airline is flying the 787 to SEA?

None. I think he's referring to the new EK DXB-SEA flight as an example of a point to point route to a smaller city (compared to JFK or LAX for example) that you'd never have dreamed of years ago. It would be kind of hard for a Middle Eastern airline to be flying the 787 to SEA considering that no Middle Eastern airlines have the 787 in service yet.
 
SANFan
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RE: International "Invasion" Possible To US?

Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:22 am

Quoting ASA (Reply 15):
JL and NH swarming above BOS, SAN, SJC, SEA ... and UA adding DEN-NRT.

SAN has the unusual situation of an airport location that pretty much prohibited nonstop service to Asia (and reallistically Europe as well) until the current aircraft-types came on the scene.

The markets for nonstop intercontinental service from San Diego to Europe, Asia, and South America have existed for a while, proven by the fact that once the aircraft are available, nonstops are being announced and flown. This despite the presence of that city 100 miles north of SAN that has LOTS of service to almost everywhere!

There will certainly be new routes added from more US cities but I don't think it's going to be anything overwhelming. With continuing fuel and economic issues worldwide, I think a lot of these new a/c such as the 787 will be used to replace older a/c on currently-served routes, with a few very carefully researched (new) markets emerging. After all, there still has to be a sizeable market to and from a US city to see even a relatively small-capacity 787 committed by either a US or a foreign carrier. (Or else lots of subsidy $$$ offered by communities that don't really have the market!)

In any case, it is going to be very exciting to see how this develops over the next several years.

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