k900
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FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:09 pm

Irish Independent reports FR is talking with Virgin about taking over Aer Lingus' DUB-LHR routes to make its takeover of EI more palatable to EU regulators. Also, FR is negotiating a 300 plane order. I'm sure the folks in Seattle and Toulouse are emailing the contact details of their competitors to the guys in Dublin.  http://www.independent.ie/business/i...es-over-london-routes-3203861.html
 
SEPilot
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting K900 (Thread starter):
I'm sure the folks in Seattle and Toulouse are emailing the contact details of their competitors to the guys in Dublin.

I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002. Based on JL's comments, I think that Airbus is even less interested in FR's business than Boeing, and this is somewhat strange. But my money is that Boeing gets this orders, but there will be no more public comments about raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
U2380
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:20 pm

I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

With regards to the order. I think FR might struggle with the two 'traditional' manufactures. Boeing are in a good position with the MAX and have no reason to succumb to FR's order requirements. Airbus.. I can't see it myself. My personal view is the FR and Airbus relationship is one of list price or nothing, as with Boeing, Airbus aren't exactly hard up for orders of the NEO.

I could see a C-Series or COMAC order though.
 
krisyyz
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:25 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002. Based on JL's comments, I think that Airbus is even less interested in FR's business than Boeing, and this is somewhat strange. But my money is that Boeing gets this orders, but there will be no more public comments about raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.

It will be interesting to see who wins this order. I personally can't see FR splitting the order between Boeing and Airbus as a split fleet will increase their operational costs, but anything can happen. I remember John Leahy saying a few years ago that Airbus is not prepared to give FR the kind of deal that they got from Boeing for the B738 order, the "A32X is a better aircraft after all" he added.

KrisYYZ
 
Phen
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:28 pm

That article has been discussed in the Irish thread and its trustworthiness is questionable. I would take it with a pinch of salt to be honest - its not very accurate and doesn't sound like the authors have a good grasp of current aviation affairs!
 
Pe@rson
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:07 am

A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed ezact terms and delivery times. Needless to say, this was much discussed on A.net.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
bueb0g
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:17 am

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):

I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

Not just publicity stunts, the new flights were confirmed this morning.
Roger roger, what's our vector, victor?
 
anstar
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:37 am

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

Well flights are on sale today for LHR-MAN and start as a wet lease in March 2013.
 
babybus
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:17 am

I wish VS would give up on the obsession with transporting people to places as they don't seem to be able to do it well.

They posted a massive loss for VS ops and lost the west coast franchise. Evidence would suggest they should concentrate on CD/DVD sales and sports centres.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
jfk777
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:31 am

Stranger things have happenend, it could prove a boom to Virgin. But who would own the slots at LHR with VS flying the route ? Ireland considers these strategic assets to their economy a wants to retain ownership. IS VS going to have to "guarrantee" so many flights for x years " ?
 
virgincrew
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:42 am

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I wish VS would give up on the obsession with transporting people to places as they don't seem to be able to do it well.

They posted a massive loss for VS ops and lost the west coast franchise. Evidence would suggest they should concentrate on CD/DVD sales and sports centres.

   are you serious ?

Yes Virgin Atlantic made a loss this year, but VS are sitting on a lot of cash, also please don't forget they have been profitable for all but 3 of their 28 years.

They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.
Hello Beautiful !!!
 
vv701
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:15 pm

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

Do you have a source for this other than from Branson? It was reported in the Telegraph:

"In his blog, Sir Richard voiced fears that the amount FirstGroup paid will make the contract unprofitable, forcing the Government to take back ownership of the line."

However I can find no report of others suggesting that the bid is "unrealistic".

Certainly First Group is a hugely experienced, successful and profitable public transport operator. It currently operates no less than five UK rail franchises, namely First Great Western, First Scotrail, First Trans Penine Express, First Hull Trains and First Capital Connect. So it has the knowledge and experience to make a successful and totally realistic bid. Note here that it also holds a 25 per cent stake in the Oresund Bridge rail operation between Copenhagen in Denmark and Malmö in Sweden.

Unlike the ABC of Virgin Group with its very diverse operations ranging from Airlines through Banking and Broadband and on to Cola and Cinemas and . . . First Group is a corporation totally focused on public transport provision.

In addition to its rail operations it provides road transportation in Ireland, the UK and North America. In Ireland it operates the bus services from Dublin Airport to the city and to the surrounding area. In the UK it operates no less than 23 local bus companies ranging from First Aberdeen to First York. In the USA and Canada it operates the iconic long distance Greyhound coach services while First Student also provides yellow school busing services throughout the USA and Canada.

Few corporations have First Group's wide range of public transport operations
 
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adg737800
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

Not that I'm a lover of FIrstGroup (I have to use First Capital Connect for my daily commute!), but they will not be using "older trains". Exactly the same train fleet (Pendolinos and the small Voyager fleet) will be used and FirstGroup are even buying additional new ones for Birmingham to Scotland services. First have also said they will be using more sophisticated yield management software that will make better use of existing spare capacity. That could, in actual fact, result in a cut in fares for those buying advance tickets.
Next flights: LCY-IOM (BA) IOM-LGW (U2); LHR-KUL-LHR (BA); KUL-LGK-KUL (AK)
 
BoeingVista
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:52 pm

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket

No, all price rises have to be approved by the UK government and they retain the right, which they HAVE used in the past to strip an operator of a train licence of they cannot provide the agreed upon service standards.
BV
 
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Stitch
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002

If you want to order a score or two of 737NGs or 737 MAX today, you can expect a similar discount (in terms of percentage) as FR received in 2002.

Heck, WN is said to have paid only $5 million more at time of order today for a 737-8 than what FR paid a decade ago at time of order for a 737-800 (note: that price really only affects the amount of deposit that WN needs to pay - the actual price WN will pay on delivery is $15 million more due to cost escalation clauses).



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed esact terms and delivery times.

  

Speculation is that FR wants the ability to flip planes relatively quickly on the open market whereas Boeing doesn't want this because it could impact their ability to sell new-build 737NGs down the road to keep the lines full as they switch over to 737 MAX production.

[Edited 2012-08-21 08:03:03]
 
Gingersnap
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:05 pm

Quoting adg737800 (Reply 12):
That could, in actual fact, result in a cut in fares for those buying advance tickets.

It is my experience that First Group aren't fans of cutting fares.
Flown on: A306 A319/20/21 A332 B732/3/4/5/7/8 B742/4 B752 B762/3 B772/W C152 E195 F70/100 MD-82 Q400
 
viscount630
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:28 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 7):
Well flights are on sale today for LHR-MAN and start as a wet lease in March 2013.

Where? Looked on the VS booking site for several dates in March and April 2013 and neither MAN or DUB are offered as options from London??
RIP Dan-Air. Where the Secret was SERVICE.
 
T8KE0FF
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:10 pm

Quoting viscount630 (Reply 16):
Where? Looked on the VS booking site for several dates in March and April 2013 and neither MAN or DUB are offered as options from London??

It's bookable online from August 27th.
RJ85 E145 E195 A319 A320 A330 A340 A380 B737 B747 B757 B767 B777 B787 DH4
 
blueflyer
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed ezact terms and delivery times.

At the time, I remember it written the major stumbling block was that Boeing would not allow Ryanair to resell the aircraft as fast as they wanted. I believe Ryanair wanted to be able to resell them after three years and Boeing refused to go below 5 years.

And now, on to trains...

Quoting VV701 (Reply 11):
However I can find no report of others suggesting that the bid is "unrealistic".

I'll look for the URL later, but the FT had an article that did voice quite a bit of concern
-Anticipate only 5% in cost cuts from current franchise, extra revenue to come from traffic growth;
-Growth target very aggressive: 35% more during the franchise (on top of Virgin already doubling it)
-Payments to government backloaded, big payouts due in later years, could be a problem if growth not on target
-Very risky plan, government demanded higher bonds than other franchise winners
-Awarding so many franchises to FirstGroup for such an extended period may discourage unlucky bidders from staying in the market, creating a quasi-monopoly.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has no clothes.
 
KaiTak747
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:50 pm

Very interesting news... I wonder if Virgin will be able to make this profitable. Any news on A/C type? Could this be the only current widebody domestic service in the UK? If I recall correctly BA no longer sends the 767 to Glasgow.
 
TC957
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:15 pm

VS have announced MAN - LHR 3 x daily with an A319, from next March. Want to fly ABZ & GLA to LHR as well, slots permitting.
 
willd
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:44 pm

Yep FR are in talks with VS. It has been splashed across the legal press as solicitors acting for FR have confirmed they are in talks with VS.
 
vv701
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:55 pm

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

It most certainly does not mean that prices will rocket.

UK rail fares are subsidised by the British tax payer to a total of around £5 billion a year. That is about £80 for every man, woman and child. So average rail fares are strictly controlled by the Department of Transport. Franchise operators may only legally increase fares above the government imposed figure if they also implement balancing increases below the government formula figure or through fare cuts.

The formula is based on the UK Retail Price Index as at the end of the July. The price increases come into effect the following January.

From 1996 to 1998 the increase in rail fares equalled the increase in the RPI.

From 1999 to 2012 the increase formula was amended to the RPI plus one per cent.

From 2013 to at least 2014 the formula was revised for England and Wales (but not Scotland) to RPI plus three per cent.

The RPI in the 12 months to the end of last month increased by an unexpectedly high 3,2 per cent. The Office of National Statistics explained that the most significant driver of this figure was air fares that increased by over 20 per cent. I guess (but certainly do not know or assert) that this figure may be due to a combination of the start of London 2012, and the school holidays an the sudden jump in oil / aviation fuel prices.

It is therefore more than clear that however much First Group paid for the West Coast franchise can have absolutely no impact on average fares.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
Boeing are in a good position with the MAX and have no reason to succumb to FR's order requirements.

Currently Boeing have a 1400 backlog of B737 orders (approx 6-7 years) with the MAX EIS of 2017 and already 3 years of orders accrued for it. Unlike the state of play in 2001/2002 when Boeing where looking at mothballing prosuction and furlonging workers.

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
Airbus.. I can't see it myself. My personal view is the FR and Airbus relationship is one of list price or nothing,

Airbus have publically hinted at this position. However I'm sure they would take a 300 plane order at 'decent' price. However Airbus too have a long backlog of aircraft ordered.

Does anyone think that VS (with a wet lease operation) would be able to compete on DUB-LON, probably the bbusiset city pair in Europe. EI currently offer 12+ flites per day, even if VS got 6 of these they would be up against the existing EI market share and the recently announced 8 daily BA DUB-LHR flites. This doesn't take into consideration the DUB-LGW, DUB-LCY, DUB-SEN and DUB-LGW flites on offer. (Not sure if anyone does DUB-LTN anymore)
 
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sturmovik
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:05 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.

I thought rape and consent were mutually exclusive ..      
'What's it doing now?'
 
LH121GLA
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 20):

VS have announced MAN - LHR 3 x daily with an A319, from next March. Want to fly ABZ & GLA to LHR as well, slots permitting.

ABZ & EDI. No mention of GLA.
 
chimborazo
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:43 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 13):

No, all price rises have to be approved by the UK government and they retain the right, which they HAVE used in the past to strip an operator of a train licence of they cannot provide the agreed upon service standards.




That's not entirely the case. Only regulated fares are capped- at RPI as it stood at the end of July plus 3% IIRC.

Unregulated fares they can do what they like with.
 
vv701
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting LH121GLA (Reply 25):
ABZ & EDI. No mention of GLA.

This is because the ABZ and EDI services are dependent on VS being awarded the slots that BA has to surrender and which must be used on these routes for the next three years. There is no requirement to surrender any slots that could be used between LHR and GLA as BD quit this route before they were put up for sale by Lufthansa Group. The LHR slots freed up when this happened are now used by LH for flights to Germany.
 
LH121GLA
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 27):
This is because the ABZ and EDI services are dependent on VS being awarded the slots that BA has to surrender and which must be used on these routes for the next three years. There is no requirement to surrender any slots that could be used between LHR and GLA as BD quit this route before they were put up for sale by Lufthansa Group. The LHR slots freed up when this happened are now used by LH for flights to Germany.

I am aware of these facts. I was pointing out to an earlier post that VS want to serve ABZ & EDI, not ABZ & GLA.
 
vv701
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RE: FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order

Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:15 am

Quoting LH121GLA (Reply 28):
I am aware of these facts. I was pointing out to an earlier post that VS want to serve ABZ & EDI, not ABZ & GLA.

Sorry. I should have been more explicit.

Once VS had decided to use the three LHR slot pairs they already had to operate a three-times-daily service between LHR and MAN there was never any opportunity for them "to want to serve ABZ & EDI, not ABZ & GLA" as they have no opportuity to serve GLA.

To operate any new service other than to MAN, VS need to obtain new slots. The only opportunity they see to quickly obtain sufficient new slots with appropriate timings is under the BA slot release programme decreed by the EC. This specifically requires that the slots that must be released for domestic flights must be used until at least the start of the Summer 2016 Timetable for flights between LHR and ABZ and/or EDI. There is no EC requirement for BA to release any slots at all that could be used before Summer 2016 between LHR and GLA.

What other new domestic services VS will be able to offer in addition to those announced between LHR and MAN appear to be totally dependent on how many (if any) of the released BA slots they are allocated.

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