User avatar
rotating14
Topic Author
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:44 pm

Hello all,

It's been discussed here I'm sure that the management at Boeing are deciding to hold off on committing so many resources to the 787-10 and the 777x but now it seem like they are pumping the brakes on the 777x program all together and its chafing some of its biggest customers (EK and I'm guessing the anonymous individual is either Walsh w/ BA or QR's CEO). Boeing already has the advantage by already having the majority of the wide-body market share, why would they stall (if they are) and give Airbus and chance to capitalize on the stalling?? Thoughts and ideas??

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...ology/2018972134_boeing777x23.html
 
KDAYflyer
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:37 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:58 pm

Im sort of glad they slowed this down a bit. I dont think Boeing wants another 787 type fiasco on it's hands. I would rather they do it right.
 
User avatar
rotating14
Topic Author
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:03 pm

True. But what what expense though?? I also don't want another relapse of the dismal days of the 787 but can Boeing afford to wait?? Do they have something planned that is far more superior than we all think and know to warrant the wait??
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:05 pm

I can understand some trepidation on Boeing's part, though the article implies Boeing can wait until 2014 to commit and still conceivably make the 2019 EIS.

Airbus has yet to complete firm configuration on the A350-1000, so Boeing is trying to address a moving target. And with the possibility of additional delays to the EIS and/or production rate of the A350-900, that might push the A350-1000 EIS back past the current 2017 date. If that happens, it would give the 777-300ER some extra sales, probably.

Boeing has been studying a Performance Improvement Package for the 777-300ER that could reduce fuel burn by 4% and GE is also working on improvements to the GE90-115B engine. If these are implemented, they'll help shrink the performance gap and would help Boeing sell additional frames if the A350-1000 is delayed further.

I could also see Boeing being a bit worried of seeing a repeat of the 747-8: spend a fair bit of time, personnel and money to overhaul the plane and see it launch to no immediate interest.

Tim Clark can proclaim all he wants to Boeing that he likes the 777X, but he also proclaimed long and loud about the 747-8 and he never ordered it and has subsequently stated he will never order it. So I could see Boeing, in the most politest of ways, suggesting that if EK places a launch order of a few score for the 777X, Boeing would work diligently to bring it to market in 2019.  

[Edited 2012-08-23 10:06:19]
 
User avatar
rotating14
Topic Author
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Boeing has been studying a Performance Improvement Package for the 777-300ER that could reduce fuel burn by 4% and GE is also working on improvements to the GE90-115B engine.

Is this similar to what Boeing offered to the 777-200 or 777-LR? If so then that make the most sense. I would venture to guess that with those improvements, should they come to fruition, should compete with the A350-900 when it enters service but then again by that time we should have an idea of what both the 777x and A350 looks like. Let cross our fingers and hope it pans out, I'm sure it will though.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 4991
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:08 pm

The "anonymous" quote in that Dominic Gates story is really funny because it could only be one of about two people...

[Edited 2012-08-23 11:09:41]
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:12 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 4):
Is this similar to what Boeing offered to the 777-200 or 777-LR?

The PiP for the 777-200, 777-200ER and 777-300 were a 2 degree aileron droop, a change to the Ram Air Intake and replacing the existing vortex generators with those used on the 737NG. Evidently all these are already part of the 777-200LR, 777-300ER and 777 Freighter.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 3949
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I could also see Boeing being a bit worried of seeing a repeat of the 747-8: spend a fair bit of time, personnel and money to overhaul the plane and see it launch to no immediate interest.

When was the last time any variant of the 777 had no immediate interest? IMHO the 777 is the best airplane ever designed and built. It is, and probably always would be, a hot seller.
 
morrisond
Posts: 221
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:51 pm

I'd say do the PIP, get GE to update the engines and skip the new wing/barrel (a new skin and reprofiling ribs basically means new barrel) and systems - Then move on to Y3.

Or Maybe the airlines are wanting more from Boeing on the 787-10 leading down the road of thinking of a 787-10/11 combo with much greater length and new wing, effectively replacing the 777 altogether and allowing the 777 line to run out...

This may be cheaper to R&D and manufacture than the more labour intensive 777 design. The cost of beating the 350-1000 with a 777 based design may be a task too large.
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 2475
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Airbus has yet to complete firm configuration on the A350-1000, so Boeing is trying to address a moving target.

I concur with you re: the 777X, makes good sense to wait til your competitor shows their hand but why are they backing off the 787-10? Seems that they more or less committed to doing it a couple years ago and yet there's still not even the slightest hint of a launch date
 
User avatar
rotating14
Topic Author
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:06 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 9):
but why are they backing off the 787-10?

I may be wrong but the direction they may be going in may be that they (Boeing management) may be looking to introduce both at roughly the same time. I can see why they would wait as to not repeat the follies of the 787-8 and the 747-8.
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:18 pm

I think designing a CFRP wing for the 777X is still a challenge. The fact that the 787-9 did not get a wing span increase is an indication for me that engineers have not yet found a good side of body join design.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 9):
ut why are they backing off the 787-10?
Quoting rotating14 (Reply 10):
I may be wrong but the direction they may be going in may be that they (Boeing management) may be looking to introduce both at roughly the same time.

If their strategy is to bracket the A350-900 with the 787-10X and 777-8X, it would be best to have both EIS at the same time so as to offer the best proposal to RFPs.



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 11):
I think designing a CFRP wing for the 777X is still a challenge. The fact that the 787-9 did not get a wing span increase is an indication for me that engineers have not yet found a good side of body join design.


The Side of Body join was too strong, originally, so that should not have prevented Boeing from using the longer span.

I think the decision was driven by time and cost. Using the same wing means you don't need to spend resources designing a longer one and it allows the Heavies to produce one set of wings.

[Edited 2012-08-23 14:53:52]
 
VC10er
Posts: 2234
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 6:25 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:32 pm

I am reading this with great curiosity as most of it is way over my head. What is the promise/design of the 777X? It would be very kind to explain it to me and would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks VC10X.  
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
vaus77w
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:05 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:56 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 13):
I am reading this with great curiosity as most of it is way over my head. What is the promise/design of the 777X? It would be very kind to explain it to me and would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks VC10X.

Have a read of this article http://www.aspireaviation.com/2012/0...ps-777x-to-challenge-airbus-a350/. Should clarify things for you.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1217
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:18 am

Don't forget the reference to the 'black hat' money men in the article. In times of constrained economies and demands for short term returns on investments, the easiest way to make profits and dividends in the short term is for Boeing to do nothing. The 777 in it's current form is makin plenty of money, but a 777X will require a considerable investment. Look at how much effort is required to just tweak the 737.

It's not good for the long term, but long term thinking is not viewed so favourably these days.
 
redrooster3
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:35 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:41 am

Randy posted this a couple of hours ago saying that Boeing is still very much committed to the 77X and 787-10X, he even got an answer from the CEO Ray on seattletime's article. See Here.
The only thing you should change about a woman is her last name.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1217
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:53 am

We will see how the white hats vs black hats works out..
 
Max Q
Posts: 5645
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:44 am

I think it's underpowered..
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
brindabella
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
If their strategy is to bracket the A350-900 with the 787-10X and 777-8X, it would be best to have both EIS at the same time so as to offer the best proposal to RFPs.


  

Or at least sufficiently close so that the Sales guys can offer mixed packages, with say 787 family, 777+ and 777X (who knows?); with pricing to suit the customer and delivery to suit the production profiles of the various types.

But, as previously discussed, the No1 requirement is that the 777-8 is really competitve with the A350-1000. Not just hopefully, but really, truly competitive.
The $64 question.

cheers, Bill
Billy
 
User avatar
ssteve
Posts: 1176
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2011 8:32 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:20 am

I have to wonder if learning what's possible (in addition to what's hard) from the 787 makes them respect the coming competition from the A350 more. Nothing to be gained from assuming the other guys won't hit it out of the park.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:01 am

Quoting morrisond (Reply 8):
Or Maybe the airlines are wanting more from Boeing on the 787-10 leading down the road of thinking of a 787-10/11 combo with much greater length and new wing, effectively replacing the 777 altogether and allowing the 777 line to run out...

This may be cheaper to R&D and manufacture than the more labour intensive 777 design. The cost of beating the 350-1000 with a 777 based design may be a task too large.

Why? The 777 is still a very young airframe with lots of unfulfilled potential. The 787 isn't big enough nor capable enough to completely replace the 777. It was never designed to be a 777 replacement in the first place. The more the 787 fuselage is stretched, the more compromised it becomes. The "787-11" will require substantial engineering to make it work. To fit the same number of passengers on the "787-11" as on the 777-9X, it'll have to be substantially longer, given that the 787 has a narrower fuselage cross section. This will require massive engineering work on the main landing gear and "beefing up" various sections of the aircraft to maintain the necessary stiffness, among other things which will add weight. That's not to mention what effects its extreme length will have on its manoeuvrability around airports.

You have made this assertion in 777X Vs 787-11/12 (by morrisond Sep 21 2011 in Civil Aviation), and Tdscanuck pointed out in reply 24 that

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 24):
Either way, they're doing a new wing. So it's a new wing plus a major systems/fuselage redesign if you use the 787 as a base, or just a new wing if you use the 777 as the base. The latter is cheaper and easier.


On the other hand, it has been mentioned by a.netter Lightsaber here before that there is significant weight that could be removed from the current 777's wing:

Boeing To Increase 777+ Wingspan (by flyAUA Jun 21 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
However, the 777 wing, per my rumor mill, is overstrength in sections. Since every chain is only as strong as the weakest link, it is un-needed weight to have something fail earlier than the bulk (except you want a somewhat benign failure mode... so there is no designing to disintegrate at 151% load).

My rumor mill insists Boeing is looking at a tremendous weight reduction in the wing utilizing the new Alcoa aluminum. My rumor mill also insists Boeing will look at different joints to further reduce weight.
Boeing 777-8X And -9X Now In The Pipe Line (by MSN007 Jan 11 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 194):
Per structural and design engineers I know who worked the original 777, 10t should be possible. Their opinion is that the wing went out far heavier than it had to.

With a new wing and perhaps some structural modifications to reduce weight, I don't think the 777-9X, despite being larger, will be much heavier than the 77W, if at all.

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 16):
Randy posted this a couple of hours ago saying that Boeing is still very much committed to the 77X and 787-10X, he even got an answer from the CEO Ray on seattletime's article. See Here.

  

It's not a question of if, but when the 777X will be built:

Quote:
While the Seattle Times reported this morning that we have slowed down the development process for the 777X, our timing on a decision to offer that airplane has not changed. We are absolutely committed to the 777X and continue to invest the necessary time and resources to ensure we produce a superior airplane for our customers.

I think the Seattle Times article linked to in the OP is a load of hot air ...

Quoting Max Q (Reply 18):
I think it's underpowered..

It may look that way due to Boeing's RFP for 100,000lb engines, but I think it's more of an indication that the 777X's wings will be both lighter and more efficient at the same time. There's also a reduced MTOW due to the reduced fuel burn.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:10 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 21):
I think the Seattle Times article linked to in the OP is a load of hot air ...

I think you are drawing conclusions there which are on the sunny side of life. The article gives details of talks with many leading people in the airliner business. Fact is that Boeing does not want to rush things now. Maybe they are a bit scared or extra careful after losing multiple billions of Dollars due to setbacks in other programs.

On the other hand they still have some time to make up their minds exactly. I would say the article is a wake-up call to Boeing management about setting the priorities for the respective so that the potential customers and the engineering workforce know what will be on the table for the coming 8 years or so. They should show their vision, that is what the article is calling for imho.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:53 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 23):
I think you are drawing conclusions there which are on the sunny side of life. The article gives details of talks with many leading people in the airliner business. Fact is that Boeing does not want to rush things now. Maybe they are a bit scared or extra careful after losing multiple billions of Dollars due to setbacks in other programs.

The fact is that Boeing's CEO gave a categoric denial of the assertion made by the Seattle Times. Unless there is evidence to prove otherwise, then it is just a load of hot air designed to provoke a reaction.

I'm not suggesting for one moment that there is no possibility a delay could occur, but as of right now, according to Boeing's CEO, everything is going as planned: a decision on offering this aircraft will happen towards the end of this year or early next year, and EIS in 2019.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 23):
I would say the article is a wake-up call to Boeing management about setting the priorities for the respective so that the potential customers and the engineering workforce know what will be on the table for the coming 8 years or so.

Granted, there seems to be a lot on Boeing's plate for the next 8 years: 787-9, 787-10, 737MAX and 777X. It could mean that something's got to give. However, at the moment, there has yet to be a statement from Boeing which definitively says that one or more of its projects will have to be pushed back.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:07 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
The Side of Body join was too strong, originally, so that should not have prevented Boeing from using the longer span.

Do you really believe this? Why did Boeing then put ~140 titanium fittings into the join area reportedly weighing 800lbs? Not to mention the beef-up of the center box.
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:18 am

Aircraft are not designed for two years of sales and production, but for 20 at least. Boeing better makes the 77X right so that they can sell it until 2040, even if that means that a dozen more A350 are ordered for 2018 delivery.

My advice for A and B is to plan and take the time it needs to mature a new design beyond the marvellous aircraft both of them build now, and not to hurry. I know some people think that time is money, but in aviation too little time is more money and may be casualties...

As long as A has the A333 and B has the 77W, take your time to make the next really better.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2176
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 28):
Why did Boeing then put ~140 titanium fittings into the join area reportedly weighing 800lbs?

Do you know what was there before? Aluminum fittings? From a design stand point, it would be foolish to use aluminum fittings connecting two graphite parts in a fluid environment. If the fittings were sitting inside a fuel tank, then I can see why titanium would be used.

As for the hot air, I see it coming from Emirates and not the Seattle Times:D

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:50 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 34):
Do you know what was there before? Aluminum fittings?

Before there were no re-inforcement fittings at all.

The fittings in question are 'bathtub' shaped titanium fittings inserted left and right into the I-section stringers of the upper wing skins to prevent a delamination that occurred within the upper cap of the stringer under compression loads. These inserts are also in the wing center box. You can see them being inserted in one of the long TV features on the 787, don't recall whether it was the one by Discovery Channel or the one by NBC.

Not sure whether the 787-9 will do away with these fittings.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:08 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 21):
The 787 isn't big enough nor capable enough to completely replace the 777.

The 787-9 is pretty much a direct-replacement for the 777-200ER if you go 6-abreast in Business and 9-abreast in Economy. They have almost identical cabin lengths.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 7705
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:23 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 7):
When was the last time any variant of the 777 had no immediate interest? IMHO the 777 is the best airplane ever designed and built. It is, and probably always would be, a hot seller.

You can say the same thing about the A330. And the 747 until the 90's. And the 737. And the A320. Etc. Sometimes immediate interest faded after not long, like for the A318 and 736. So I wouldn't say immediate interest is enough, anyway.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 21):
Why? The 777 is still a very young airframe with lots of unfulfilled potential.

But maybe not young enough for current times of high fuel costs. The A330 is not much older than the 777 and it is being replaced, even though it's still selling quite well. The 777X really looks like the original A350 to me. Airbus gave it a new name even if it was an A330NG because there were so many modifications, so the 777X is not really a 777 anymore.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:31 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 29):
But maybe not young enough for current times of high fuel costs. The A330 is not much older than the 777 and it is being replaced, even though it's still selling quite well.

A 787 is more fuel efficient than an A330, but an A330 is still a very fuel efficient platform. The same applies to the 777 compared to the A350.

Yes, I am sure we'll see 777-200s, 777-300s and 1990's era A330-200s and A330-300s being replaced by the first tranche of 787 and A350 deliveries, but the bulk of those will be tasked to replace 767-200s and 767-300ERs, 747-400s, A340-300s and A340-500s.

I don't expect to see full-scale replacement of 777-200ERs, A330-200HGWs, A330-300HGWs and A340-600s until next decade. And the 777-300ERs will probably not be replaced en masse until well into the 2020's with the exception of airlines like EK and SQ who turn over their fleets while they still have usable life and desirability left in them.

[Edited 2012-08-24 09:31:40]
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
And the 777-300ERs will probably not be replaced en masse until well into the 2020's with the exception of airlines like EK and SQ who turn over their fleets while they still have usable life and desirability left in them

Very good analysis. agree completely.Maybe some of the airlines which have very small 77W fleets like BA will also replace them soon, but no doubt any well maintained 77W finds homeuntil 2025 at least.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 7705
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:59 pm

I'm not talking about replacing planes, I'm talking about new sales. Would the current 777 still sell in a few years if it's not replaced by the 777X ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 32):
Would the current 777 still sell in a few years if it's not replaced by the 777X ?

Why not? The B787 is out there but the A330 is still selling very well, and will be kept up to date and further improved by Airbus. So I do not see any reason after the A350 or larger B787's are out, why the B777 would completely stop selling. The sales would slow down at some point after the EIS of the newer competitors, but will certainly not stop immediately after the competition has hit the market.  
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 7705
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:23 pm

Sure, even the 767 is still selling a few frames. But it's not making the news, and is certainly not keeping Boeing market share and revenues high.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:33 pm

^^ The first 5 years or so the B777 will not be hurt by the competition entering the market imho. The longer after EIS, the lower the sales will be. For that the B777-X programs are being considered as the proper reply to the competition which is partially coming from Boeing itself.  
 
User avatar
rotating14
Topic Author
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 32):
Would the current 777 still sell in a few years if it's not replaced by the 777X ?
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 33):
Why not? The B787 is out there but the A330 is still selling very well, and will be kept up to date and further improved by Airbus. So I do not see any reason after the A350 or larger B787's are out, why the B777 would completely stop selling. The sales would slow down at some point after the EIS of the newer competitors, but will certainly not stop immediately after the competition has hit the market.  

Not mention the backlog for both the 787 and the 330 are very healthy so an alternative would be a 77W or a 763 IMO. I remember Stitch saying that Boeing is or is going to be working on a performance package to squeeze some more juice out of the frames and GE is on the same page as far as the power plants are concerned too.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 32):
I'm not talking about replacing planes, I'm talking about new sales. Would the current 777 still sell in a few years if it's not replaced by the 777X?

The 777 Freighter has no real competition (it lifts almost as much by weight as the 747-400BCF and looks that it could be so efficient that the low acquisition cost of a 747-400BCF can't warrant the higher operating costs). So it should still be selling well into the next decade.

The 777-200LR is also in a league or her own, but that league is a minor one so I expect orders to be slim. That being said, the A350-900 will certainly take orders that would have gone to the 777-200LR by default.

The 777-300ER will still sell through the end of the decade on availability, if nothing else. Should Boeing (and GE) introduce a comprehensive PiP that does lower fuel consumption by 4% or more, that will probably move some additional frames.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:26 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
The 787-9 is pretty much a direct-replacement for the 777-200ER if you go 6-abreast in Business and 9-abreast in Economy. They have almost identical cabin lengths.

I meant the 777-300ER specifically. Apologies for not making that clear. I agree that the 787-9 would make an excellent 777-200ER replacement, despite being narrower.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 29):
The 777X really looks like the original A350 to me. Airbus gave it a new name even if it was an A330NG because there were so many modifications, so the 777X is not really a 777 anymore.

I suppose this is a question of what's in a name, but the way I see it, the 777X is designed around the current 777. If a design didn't start from the metaphorical clean sheet of paper, then it should carry the name of the model it's derived from. The 737NG and the 737MAX have very little in common with the 731 and 732, but it's still a 737; neither does the 747-8 have much in common with the 747-100, but it's still a 747 based design, hence the name is carried over.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 35):
The first 5 years or so the B777 will not be hurt by the competition entering the market imho. The longer after EIS, the lower the sales will be. For that the B777-X programs are being considered as the proper reply to the competition which is partially coming from Boeing itself.

  

Even if Boeing are late to the party with the 777X, it shouldn't affect sales of the 777 too much. Boeing are aiming for a 2019 EIS for the 777X, which would give the A350-900 a 4 year head start and the A350-1000 a 2 year head start. Given that, as Stitch mentioned above, the vast majority of 777-300ERs won't be replaced until the mid 2020s at the earliest, Boeing can still snare a portion of the 777-300ER replacement market if the 777-9X is ready by 2020.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:50 am

What is to say the current A350 schedule will be on target? It might be that A350-1000 and the 777-X will arrive almost at the same time.

The A350 has a long ramping up period as well ahead. Sure a redone 777 will have its ramping up to do as well.

I would keep the current size of the 77W, put a new wing and a new engine on it, put it on a serious diet as well, that will be one hard target to beat. Then do a larger model when the 77Wneo is in service.
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
It might be that A350-1000 and the 777-X will arrive almost at the same time.

That is highly unlikely. The B777-X program has not even officially started yet. 2019 is at present the absolute earliest year for an EIS, but most likely it will be in 2020-2021, or even 2022. The A350-1000 will enter service in 2017, which is already a two year shift from the original year 2015.

[Edited 2012-08-25 04:01:49]
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 am

As noone can tell the future your guess is as good as anyones..
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:16 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 41):
As noone can tell the future your guess is as good as anyones.

Take it easy there. All guesses are not equal. The data considered before making the guess is very important.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:20 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 42):
Take it easy there. All guesses are not equal. The data considered before making the guess is very important.

Wise from the last decade of new airplane projects it would not surprise me at all if I am right, we should all be sceptics to the rosy schedules given by the OEMs. Even if the EIS somewhat on time the ramp up will be a lot slower than some may think.
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:32 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 43):
Wise from the last decade of new airplane projects it would not surprise me at all if I am right, we should all be sceptics to the rosy schedules given by the OEMs. Even if the EIS somewhat on time the ramp up will be a lot slower than some may think.

Wise from decades of project management, things happen. But, a project pending go ahead with end of the decade target is very unlikely to catch up with an already started project targeted at 2017.

It is all about understanding the data going in to the guess, and being honest about it. Treating equal data differently because of preference... doesn't matter if that preference is of an OEM or something else.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:57 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 44):
It is all about understanding the data going in to the guess, and being honest about it

That is most important indeed.   

Quoting cmf (Reply 44):
Treating equal data differently because of preference.......

That is what we see so often here.  .

Quoting sweair (Reply 43):
we should all be sceptics to the rosy schedules given by the OEMs

Which would imply that the 2019 date for the B777-X must be taken with at least the equal scepticism as the date for the A350-1000. Now that project, which is progressing and is really going on as an official project, is gathering experiences. These experiences gained combined with a partial redesign already forced the project to move EIS from 2015 to 2017. The B777-X project is still only in the concept phase and not even an officially launched program. How do you see both projects achieving the same EIS while taking your own remark here into account?

[Edited 2012-08-25 04:59:19]
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:06 pm

It's a matter of Boeing finance: The 787 program and to lesser extent the 747-8 keep piling up deferred production cost and compensation cost. The KC-767 is certain to overrun budget, 737MAX is going to cost 2bn+ to develop, and overall R&D stays up at 3bn+ per year for some time to come. Revenues on the other hand are under pressure from meager margins on 787 launch contracts and the 737 pricing concessions.

It's a matter of human resource: Engineering capacity is finite: 787-9 design is ongoing with the 787-10 a logical next, 737MAX design has just begun, KC-767 design has just begun.

It's a matter of supplier finance and relationship: Suppliers may not be willing to share upfront investment on yet another major Boeing program as they are still licking their wounds from the last two and keep racking up deferred production cost on the 787 that may not come down as fast as to make a ramp-up desirable for them. Plus deferred cost on the 747. Plus further out-year margin squeezing as Boeing tries to recover from all the overruns. Boeing has to find a new business model with suppliers as the one pioneered by the 787 with 50+ % of design & build outsourced failed.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23214
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:49 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 46):
Revenues on the other hand are under pressure from meager margins on 787 launch contracts and the 737 pricing concessions.

If current 737 margins are in the 20% range, as some analysts feel they are, then even with these pricing concessions, Boeing's going to see strong profits from each delivery. And as they increase production rates, production costs drop and margins / profits expand.

And even though every 787 delivery is below production cost, those production costs have already been paid out in prior quarters, so that delivery revenue is available for other use.

As such, I don't think Boeing is going to be starved for cash from ongoing revenues. They also have lines of credit they can draw from and their credit rating is high enough to secure new financing at favorable rates.
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing Slows The Pace On 777X. Why?

Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
If current 737 margins are in the 20% range, as some analysts feel they are, then even with these pricing concessions, Boeing's going to see strong profits from each delivery.

I share that assumption, but analysts also see see risk that these margins are coming under pressure. The question is how much margin is needed to balance the burden from the 787 program and then 2 or 3 development programs on top?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
And even though every 787 delivery is below production cost, those production costs have already been paid out in prior quarters, so that delivery revenue is available for other use.


You forgot that until unit cost break even is achieved in 2015/16, 787 revenues will be largely absorbed by ongoing production. A 787 still costs roughly twice as much to produce than the avearge street price.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
I don't think Boeing is going to be starved for cash from ongoing revenues.

Niether do I. But they won't be awash in cash either. Two cash cows can sustain only so many development programs.

[Edited 2012-08-25 08:00:44]