kl911
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Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:52 pm

Finally very good news regarding Ryanair taking over Aer Lingus:

quote:


Ryanair said it is confident of winning regulatory clearance for its bid for Aer Lingus after the submission of a “revolutionary” package of remedies to the European Commission to address competition concerns.

The airline has submitted a draft remedies package to the commission, which involved getting other airlines to commit to take over 35 routes to Europe where the proposed takeover would result in a monopoly situation.

Mr O’Leary refused to disclose the airlines involved in the talks but the Financial Times reported last month it had approached Air France-KLM, EasyJet, Etihad Airways, Flybe, International Airlines Group and Virgin Atlantic.

Full article: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/75e36...75-00144feabdc0.html#axzz277iZmJVk


I wonder why Etihad has been approached, will they have intra EU tags?
 
jfk777
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:04 pm

Its time for Ireland to have one airline, the employees have about 25 % and the Irish Government has about the same, Its time for them to cash in. If they don't sell they might as well just re-national Aer Lingus.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):

Its time for Ireland to have one airline, the employees have about 25 % and the Irish Government has about the same, Its time for them to cash in. If they don't sell they might as well just re-national Aer Lingus.
Quoting kl911 (Thread starter):
Finally very good news regarding Ryanair taking over Aer Lingus:

I too welcome the return of an aviation monopoly out of Ireland, bring back the 1980's I say.

Afterall EI is obviously about to collapse within the next 12 months and needs FR to rescue it. That 1 billion Euro cash pile is causing them awful problems and they should be sold to FR for E694M. And with the recently announced codeshares/partnerships with Air Canada. JetBlue and Etihad (as well as the continual growth of their Regional franchise) we can see that they are becoming increasingly marginalised in the aviation sector.

(Indeed with all those bankruptcies is it about time we saw the US aviation industry consolidate into 1 large group)

P.S. the current shareholding of EI does not show 25% in staff hands,the'staff holding is now classed at in private hands,I'm sure many have sold their holding (FR 29%, Govt 25%, Irish Pilots 4%, Denis O'Brien 3%, EY 3% Others 36%)
http://corporate.aerlingus.com/investorrelations/shareregister/
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
Its time for Ireland to have one airline

Ryanair plans on keeping two airlines, both for different markets.

Michael O'Leary:

“I remain confident that our revolutionary remedies package will win approval in Brussels and that we will be able to acquire in time and significantly grow Aer Lingus and have two decent-sized Irish airlines running around Europe kicking the crap out of the competition,” said Mr O’Leary.
 
Phen
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:58 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 3):
Ryanair plans on keeping two airlines, both for different markets.

Ryanair will mothball Aer Lingus if they are allowed to buy it. Anybody who believes otherwise doesn't appreciate how aggressive FR is and how much contempt they have for EI. This takeover being allowed to happen would be nothing short of a disaster for Irish aviation.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
Its time for Ireland to have one airline, the employees have about 25 % and the Irish Government has about the same, Its time for them to cash in. If they don't sell they might as well just re-national Aer Lingus.

Why would ANY country benefit from going from TWO healthy financially stable airlines competing with each other to ONE with a near complete monopoly???    Please explain your opinion...I'd be interested to hear why you think the above.

[Edited 2012-09-21 12:59:40]
 
FURUREFA
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting Phen (Reply 4):
Why would ANY country benefit from going from TWO healthy financially stable airlines competing with each other to ONE with a near complete monopoly??? Please explain your opinion...I'd be interested to hear why you think the above.

Because that's not the case right now. Ireland has one healthy financially stable airline, and one anemic airline that, while having some long-haul service, is becoming increasingly marginalized.

In this era of an efficient global market, some countries are just going to have to accept that they cannot support two (or for others, even one) national airline.

While I dislike FR, and do not fly them, the fact of the matter is that Ireland is not a large enough country to support two healthy, prosperous airlines. It simply can't.
 
EIDL
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 5):
Because that's not the case right now. Ireland has one healthy financially stable airline, and one anemic airline that, while having some long-haul service, is becoming increasingly marginalized.

Are you going off particularly old figures? EI is financially stable. FRs bid undervalues it by at least 50% (1Bn in cash + owned a/c + Heathrow slots amongst other assets).

FR project an image that Aer Lingus needs to be "saved" and so on, but like a lot of their media spin, it simply is not true.

There is also a third airline of some scale here - WX. Its not as tightly integrated in to AF as often seems to be believed, its got a seperate HQ in Dublin, for instance.

[Edited 2012-09-21 13:54:26]
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:16 pm

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 5):
Because that's not the case right now. Ireland has one healthy financially stable airline, and one anemic airline that, while having some long-haul service, is becoming increasingly marginalized.

Thats funny, that anemic airline
-has >85% load factor on its long haul services (with 35% of that being transfer pax through its DUB mini-hub),similar on s/h,
-it has posted estimates of a 3rd profitable year while its main (sole?) market is experiencing its worst ever recession,
-it has grown pax numbers in the same time period.
-is currently sitting on a cash pile of over 1 billion Euro.
-is developing ties to several larger operators to increase its market reach.
-has lowered its cost per pax kilometre to just above that of Easyjet in its 2 year streamlining program.

Doesn't seem 'anemic' to me.

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 5):
While I dislike FR, and do not fly them, the fact of the matter is that Ireland is not a large enough country to support two healthy, prosperous airlines. It simply can't.

While the market in Ireland supports Aer Lingus, the Irish market is a small faction of the FR network. FR are a Pan-European airline more so than an Irish one. FR are Irish owned and based, but the majority of their staff and pax are from continental Europe. (Ireland also being European)
 
KFlyer
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:27 am

Why is everyone seeing EI as unstable? If you look at their recent financial figures, they are one of the most stable FSCs in Europe. In fact, I would say the most stable single airline after BA. True, they are not making any noise, but that does not mean they are unstable. IMHO, they are one fine niche airline that could.

[Edited 2012-09-21 18:28:14]
The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
 
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Jambost
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:48 am

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 5):
Ireland is not a large enough country to support two healthy, prosperous airlines. It simply can't.
EI & FR are not the only Irish airlines based in Ireland, here is my opinionated list:

FR - King of the hill, they will not stop until they wipe out the entire competition in Europe. [never ending battle]

EI - Healthy and in profit despite fierce competition. [Iconic flag carrier of Ireland]

RE - Irish regional airline known as Aer Arann. Recently entered receivership, Stobart group stepped in, acquired an EI franchise deal and have expansion plans with new aircraft ordered.

WX - In turbulent conditions the only loss making of the lot?

Lets not forget Air Contractors who own Europe Outpost both based in Ireland providing their cargo and charter operations throughout Europe. In perspective of the entire Island therefore including the other airlines based in Northern Ireland so let me add:

LS - BFS

U2 - BFS

BE - BHD

Thomas Cook & Thompson holiday charter base.

From my rant that I type the Island of Ireland is sustaining up to 10 airlines basing their business in Ireland's airports targeting a wide range of markets. EI and FR will live on competing with themselves like the aul irish tribes back in the day. If those days are numbered then think about this:

To fly from Dublin to the UK or Europe it is common that the choice is only between EI & FR [not always the case but on many routes] If FR dissolves EI and the choice is just FR, then who is stopping U2 or LS spreading a rival brand to provide an alternative to FR's crap-tacular service?

I am going to regret saying some of this but my opinion is that BE, LS, U2 is as Irish as FR contributing their services to the North of the Island. I know they are British operating in the UK I know.

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 8):

  

That sounds like a fact to me not opinion!  

[Edited 2012-09-21 19:54:55]

[Edited 2012-09-21 20:08:46]

[Edited 2012-09-21 20:16:05]
1APR14 Ireland Direct, 3 A380-9LR,Equiped Irish Bar & Casino. All Y+ seating. Serving DUB-PER-SYD/MEL
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:05 am

One thing is for sure, such a deal is for the longer term, not the current situation. EI might be doing well now, but it could well be a roller coaster ride over the longer term, judging by past experience.

FR and EI have a chance to make a very solid single group operation, with each targeting specific roles. It may not be ideal to some, especially those who think each European country should have numerous carriers, but the reality in this industry is that things change overnight. Who knows what sits ahead.
 
kaitak
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:50 am

Quoting Jambost (Reply 9):
RE - Irish regional airline known as Aer Arann. Recently entered receivership, Stobart group stepped in, acquired an EI franchise deal and have expansion plans with new aircraft ordered.

The EI franchise has been highly successful; indeed, I would venture to suggest that this is one reason that MO'L is so cheesed off with EI; it has found a formula to push FR off some of the short haul routes to/from Ireland; the 738 - even in an all-Y layout and with FR's costs - simply cannot compare with an ATR42/72, and EI also benefits from the feed from these regional markets; that process is only going to accelerate and that's something that MO'L and FR are/should be worried about.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 10):
EI might be doing well now, but it could well be a roller coaster ride over the longer term, judging by past experience.

And you can say the same for every airline in the world; who does know what the future holds. We know what's happened in the past, which is that EI's home market has been through (and indeed, is still going through) a severe downturn and recession; things are getting a little better, but we have a long way to go. Yet, despite this, EI has survived and has become a better and stronger airline. It certainly does not need or want ownership by FR.

There would be very little support for an FR takeover of EI in its home market, i.e. among customers. We do like to have a choice. Despite all MO'L and FR say, I simply cannot see this being allowed to go through; however, even if in the unlikely event it is likely to go through, FR can't force other shareholders to sell to them.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 4:47 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 11):
And you can say the same for every airline in the world; who does know what the future holds. We know what's happened in the past, which is that EI's home market has been through (and indeed, is still going through) a severe downturn and recession; things are getting a little better, but we have a long way to go. Yet, despite this, EI has survived and has become a better and stronger airline. It certainly does not need or want ownership by FR.

Of course its the same as any other carrier. carriers cut and cut and repeat. It only goes so far.

EI have done well to turn itself around, but we have heard many examples of a quick improvement only to fall back again in a few years.

My point is as stated, such a deal could be a way of providing stability over the longer term. Not saying its the only solution, but trying to stay on its own might be tricky in the longer term. Its market is not huge, and things will only likely get more competitive.
 
f4f3a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:50 am

Why is fr obsessed with buying ei ??

Are fr really concerned with competition out of Ireland . I doubt it they make most of their money elsewhere .

Could this be a reverse take over and fr can use a good brand to compete in the higher end of lcc market
For people who will not fly fr.

Or is it for his entry into long haul low cost using ei expertise ??
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:16 am

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 13):
Why is fr obsessed with buying ei ??

Are fr really concerned with competition out of Ireland . I doubt it they make most of their money elsewhere .

The hubris of MoL and the senior mgmt team at FR are behind this. We can see this in the reaction of major US investors when FR announced the purchase of their 29% sharhaolding. The FR mgmt team have since waiting till those same investors cannot question this current bid due to the cost (E694M) being less than 50% value of the FR group.

-When FR were launched the culture in EI was one of didain,it seems that FR have never forgotten this attitude and want payback.
-EI are the only airline to continue to successfully compete against the FR business model,eliminating them would be a major coup for FR. Taking over EI would also spell doom for Aer Arann (in their guise as EI Regional)
-FR agressively defended 'their' market against Easyjet and Go when they tried to enter the Rep of Ireland market, I cannot see how FR would allows other airlines to waltz in to allow this takeover.Within 3-5 years the gloves would off.
-The entry into long haul with an established brand is a definite option in this take-over.
-And yes a takeover of EI would allow the overall FR Group to access different markets under a different brand.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:17 pm

The reason many airlines are based in Ireland is because of low corporate taxes, not the local market.
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kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 4:04 pm

Quoting Jambost (Reply 9):
FR - King of the hill, they will not stop until they wipe out the entire competition in Europe.

That is the aim of every company in the world,not just FR. FR is just the only one saying it out loud.  
Quoting f4f3a (Reply 13):
Why is fr obsessed with buying ei ??

Because they think it is a good investment, and FR still wants to go Trans-Atlantic

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 13):
Or is it for his entry into long haul low cost using ei expertise ??

That is my guess.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 15):
The reason many airlines are based in Ireland is because of low corporate taxes, not the local market

That is right for the Headoffice, it doesnt make them start routes for that reason though.
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:52 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 15):

Yawn.

Aerlingus - serving Ireland almost exclusively, based in Ireland.
Aer Arann - serving Ireland almost exclusively, based in Ireland.
Cityjet - served Ireland exclusively, before being bought by Air France.
Ryanair - served Ireland exclusively, before expanding to Europe.

NONE OF THEM WERE EVER based anywhere but Ireland.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:57 pm

Quoting EagleBoy (Reply 14):
The FR mgmt team have since waiting till those same investors cannot question this current bid due to the cost (E694M) being less than 50% value of the FR group.

If the European commission approves Ryanair's remedies, I would place money on the next bid being higher. The current bid has lapsed of course and is no longer valid.

Interesting times ahead anyway  
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:08 pm

I was just reading this, what do they mean with breaking up Aer Lingus? :


"Addressing shareholders at today’s annual meeting in Dublin, O’Leary said that Ryanair had received approaches both from other airlines and from financial institutions who wanted to break up Aer Lingus."

And this:

"He said somewhere between 30 and 35 rival airlines had shown interest in taking over routes which both Ryanair and Aer Lingus currently fly."

Source: http://www.standard.co.uk/business/b...0-stake-in-aer-lingus-8162981.html
 
EIDL
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:24 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):
I was just reading this, what do they mean with breaking up Aer Lingus? :

Its a completely baseless scare tactic.

FR's plans are as close to a break up as will ever happen to EI.
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:47 pm

Quoting EIDL (Reply 20):
Its a completely baseless scare tactic.

FR's plans are as close to a break up as will ever happen to EI.

No,what i mean is the article mentioned when the deal is not approved and Ryanair will sell its stake in EI to Financial institutions. Those seem to be the ones to want to break up the airline according to the article.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):
I was just reading this, what do they mean with breaking up Aer Lingus?
Quoting kl911 (Reply 21):
No,what i mean is the article mentioned when the deal is not approved and Ryanair will sell its stake in EI to Financial institutions. Those seem to be the ones to want to break up the airline according to the article.

Mol is the one saying this not anyone else. His argument is that financial investors will buy controlling interest in EI and then break it up and sell off the parts (60% aircraft owned, short haul network, longhaul network, property portofolio, LHR slots, AOC etc etc)

Strange, as Mol has already stated that he would be willing to ditch the current fleet, the LHR slots, the shorthaul network, the bulk of the workforce, etc etc.........


In point of fact at the 2011 full year results the EI CEO stated that the EI preference is for EI to be owned by multiple financial institutional investors. Being mostly owned by another airline could interfere with how EI run their own operations.
So to repeat...MoL is the ONLY person saying that EI is going to be broken up within the next 3-5 years.
 
greenjet
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting kl911 (Thread starter):
Finally very good news

For who other than FR?

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
If they don't sell they might as well just re-national Aer Lingus.

I don't see the logic in that.

Quoting EagleBoy (Reply 2):
That 1 billion Euro cash pile is causing them awful problems and they should be sold to FR for E694M.
Quoting EIDL (Reply 6):
FRs bid undervalues it by at least 50% (1Bn in cash + owned a/c + Heathrow slots amongst other assets).

While EI does have a nice little cash pile it also has some notable liabilities including 530 million euro in finance lease obligations. The company's net worth (total assets minus total liabilties) amounted to 792 million euro as at 30 June 2012 so yes the FR bid does appear to be a little on the low side but EI isn't as valuable as some may think.
 
EIBusiness
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 8:15 am

Quoting greenjet (Reply 23):
While EI does have a nice little cash pile it also has some notable liabilities including 530 million euro in finance lease obligations. The company's net worth (total assets minus total liabilties) amounted to 792 million euro as at 30 June 2012 so yes the FR bid does appear to be a little on the low side but EI isn't as valuable as some may think.

While your point is certainly a valid one, the valuation of a business is ultimately much more complex. Aer Lingus, for example, has one of the highest owned aircraft relative to leased aircraft ratios that I'm aware of.

A business is ultimately valued upon the potential earning power of its current asset base, with a strong consideration of prior earnings performance. The valuation may be a multiple of revenue or the P/E ratio and much more.

I'm glad to see that FR shareholders are apparently happy for the airline to accumulate what must at this stage be materially significant legal costs in its efforts to pursue a takeover of Aer Lingus.

The re-organisation costs associated with the proposed remedies being offered by FR right now would be extensive, both in terms of FR, EI and in relation to the takeover of several routes by a myriad of different carriers.

There is absolutely no argument, no matter in what manner FR would like to phrase it - that supports the ultimate breakup of a positive free cash flow generating profitable unit that is EI for the past couple of years.

EIBusiness
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BestWestern
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:34 am

Quoting EIBusiness (Reply 24):

Good analysis as usual.

If EI goes, Ireland will be at the mercy of Ryanair, and watch them battle other airlines out of Ireland with short-lived fare wars the likes of which we are seeing currently in Warsaw and Budapest. That monopoly control will crucify airports and kill connectivity - LH may increase Dublin, but ignore ORK and SNN for example.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
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OA260
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:51 am

Quoting kl911 (Thread starter):
Finally very good news regarding Ryanair taking over Aer Lingus:

Actually it would be the worst scenario and detrimental to Irish aviation. The fares would rise and the country would be held to ransom by MOL. It would be bad for business also as stated previously by some big companies and CEOs .

We need two independent carriers rather than one monopoly. We have seen what FR does on routes. They basically try to kill off competition and when the other airline cant compete they blackmail Airports or pull out leaving no service at all. We have seen the game for years now.

So all we can hope for is a successful block from the EU . For the last 15 years I have seen many changes in the Irish market but never have we been in such danger of loosing essential links and stability.
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 10:36 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 26):
The fares would rise and the country would be held to ransom by MOL. It would be bad for business also as stated previously by some big companies and CEOs .

Not really, Don't forget it will be part of the deal to open up at least 35 routes to competition. So you will for example see KLM start Dublin.
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 12:03 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 27):
Not really, Don't forget it will be part of the deal to open up at least 35 routes to competition. So you will for example see KLM start Dublin.

Really? And do we have a promise of this - and more importantly - a promise that they will stay on the route and that FR wont start a fares war that will drive the other carrier off the route? That's the problem. Sure, airlines like KL could start Dublin. But will they stay there?

These competition remedies dont work in the real world, and especially when you are dealing with an airline that has crucified even Easyjet for impinging on it's home turf in the past.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
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OA260
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 12:08 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 27):
Not really, Don't forget it will be part of the deal to open up at least 35 routes to competition. So you will for example see KLM start Dublin.

Ive seen and heard it all before. Being based in Ireland for the last 15-16 years Im sorry if experience clouds my judgement but its all been said before. I know the drill at this stage .
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 12:25 pm

Quoting pesit4a (Reply 28):
Really? And do we have a promise of this - and more importantly - a promise that they will stay on the route and that FR wont start a fares war that will drive the other carrier off the route? That's the problem. Sure, airlines like KL could start Dublin. But will they stay there?

They will, Ryanair and KLM for example serve totally different markets. And I doubt Ryanair would ever want to fly to LHR,AMS, FRA etc. Basically if the merger will happen a foreign airline will replace Aer Lingus on the route so you still have one option for quality and one option for cheap a bit further way from your destination.

At the end it will be the same amount of flights.

Talking about promises, it is more than that, it will be an EU rule if it gets approved.
 
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OA260
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:01 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 30):
Talking about promises, it is more than that, it will be an EU rule if it gets approved.

So the EU rules that Airlines have to operate a route ? I think you are missing the point to be honest. Foreign carriers come and go as did LO TP BA OS AZ etc...If EI were pulled off those routes and some airlines came back there would be no guarantee under any laws that would make them stay thus leaving DUB with no links where as now EI have a proven history of keeping these links unless there is a real business reason for it not to be kept.

LOT comes back and operates DUB-WAW . Then FR launch an attack on LOT and offer 99c flights to make it un viable for LOT to sustain the loss . Route becomes impossible for LOT then bingo FR monopoly again and fares go sky high . Seriously Ive seen it and experienced it all before. I don't take any guarantees as they never mean anything. FR have a history of running competition off the route to create their own monopoly thus trashing everything they claim to want themselves.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:11 pm

On what routes have FR's fares gone "sky high" as a result of a competitor ceasing their service? I would like to go and check it out.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
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OA260
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:24 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 32):
On what routes have FR's fares gone "sky high" as a result of a competitor ceasing their service? I would like to go and check it out.

Are you serious ? This has been discussed over the years and you were witness to it and actually contributed to threads on it . I'm not anti FR but I know the reality when I see it . Maybe if you were based in DUB you would notice it more. I personally regularly check FR just to see what the same fare would be even if I have no intention of booking them . I also noticed when they were on a certain route which their competitor gave up the fares increased. Its not rocket science to spot .
 
Pe@rson
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:45 pm

Your logic is obviously simple: reduced competition by the only other operator withdrawing and an increase in the average fare of the remaining airline as a result of it exploiting the lack of choice and reduced air substutability. But perhaps you could add meat to you argument by furnishing us with some examples of presently-operating routes on which FR is the sole operator and is exploiting its position by charging "sky high" prices on a normal basis?



[Edited 2012-09-23 07:14:25]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 2:57 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 31):
So the EU rules that Airlines have to operate a route ? I think you are missing the point to be honest. Foreign carriers come and go as did LO TP BA OS AZ etc...If EI were pulled off those routes and some airlines came back there would be no guarantee under any laws that would make them stay thus leaving DUB with no links where as now EI have a proven history of keeping these links unless there is a real business reason for it not to be kept

Well, if those carriers are not interested in the routes it means there is no market and or business case for it. We will find out if certain routes can sustain a full service airline, there is no use to have FR and EI on the same routes as both are no frills either lcc's, but EI one step above FR.

Ireland is just a small island with a small population, and its geological location means it will never become a transfer hub.
 
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OA260
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:07 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 34):

I referred to what has happened in the past where such an example has been present in DUB and thats exactly what happened. This is exactly what I would expect to see if such a situation arose again. Willing to be proved wrong though but I hope it does not get that far. Going from your past posts and knowledge of FR you know more than most what routes were examples of the strategy out of ROI.
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:28 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 35):
Ireland is just a small island with a small population, and its geological location means it will never become a transfer hub.

Ahem... Ireland has been sustaining EI and FR for quite some time now, and just because I live on a "small island" does not mean I should be denied the choice that quite clearly is sustainable just so YOU can see your beloved Ryanair take over another carrier.

The size of this place means nothing - it is the needs of the consumer that come first.

So, please, can we drop the continental sense of superiority? Your own country is even smaller than Ireland - actually, only the size of one of our provinces. Does that mean that KLM should just pack up and not bother, or that Dutch consumers should be denied choice?

And, as for Geographical location - that's horse manure. It is perfectly sited for an EU-US transfer hub of limited scope - something now being pursued by Aer Lingus.

Time for the blinkers to come off here.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
BestWestern
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:29 pm

KL911, you are such blinkered you seem to think that FR doesn't compete against KLM if they are flying on the same route pair. They don't serve different markets, Just KLM also offers connections. A high frequency KLM route to be successful requires every passenger it can get, connections and point to point. They so do compete, for the all so crucial point to point business - hence why KL have not tried to compete against EI. Point to point is so critical to KL and LH short haul viability. EI also have created a sizeable connection business in Dublin, with an ever increasing proportion of its business connecting onto long haul routes.

EI is the only airline to have cracked a competitive response to FR on same route pairs.

Pearson, FR has driven basically all LCC competition from the republic of Ireland, alongside other full service competition in other airports. some small examples I know all too well - take SNN PAR. FR increased frequencies to x11 weekly to get rid of AF and hacked the fares. Once AF left they dropped it to x3 weekly, and the fares went back up. They then had a spat with the airport and pulled the route. When Go started Dublin, FR followed them onto the routes, and ignored yield, Go left, and the fares rose dramatically. Look at the arguments they are already having with regional airports in Ireland - the entire west and south coast could be left with no interline connectivity.

FR is having a similar battle with Wizz these days, lets watch fares rise when the competition is eliminated. That's competition, and the strongest wins, but when Ireland ends up with so much traffic in the hands of one dominant and predatory carrier, it is not good news for the passenger, especially with zero land access to other EU states.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:33 pm

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 38):
Pearson, FR has driven basically all LCC competition from the republic of Ireland, alongside other full service competition in other airports. some small examples I know all too well - take SNN PAR. FR increased frequencies to x11 weekly to get rid of AF and hacked the fares. Once AF left they dropped it to x3 weekly, and the fares went back up. They then had a spat with the airport and pulled the route. When Go started Dublin, FR followed them onto the routes, and ignored yield, Go left, and the fares rose dramatically. Look at the arguments they are already having with regional airports in Ireland - the entire west and south coast could be left with no interline connectivity.

I'll add a few more examples:

SNN - BHX - Drove Flybe off the route, then pulled it themselves.
SNN - CGN - Drove HLX off the route, then pulled it themselves (NRN)
SNN - MAN - Drove BA from the route, then pulled it themselves
SNN - BRU - Drove Virgin express off, then pulled it too.
SNN - EMA - got rid of Thomsonfly, and then pulled it too.
SNN, ORK, NOC - LGW, drove easyjet off, then either pulled or cut frequency.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
Toulouse
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 35):

While you are totally right in the fact that Ireland is a small country with small population, in 2012 we were ranked the 25th busiest airport in Europe (over 18 million). That's a fairly big figure.

In your reference to OA260's comment, the reason airlines pulled off routes from Dublin, is not because there was no market/business case for it, but because the competition at DUB created by FR and EI was just to big, especially with FR's tactics of starting airfare wars.

And you describe EI as a no frills lcc. As a frequent flyer with this airline, I don't totally agree with you for the following reasons:

- They have a frequent flyer programme
- Due to said programme, I get lounge access at all the airports I fly through with Aer Lingus, plus dedicated check-in desks for business class passengers and holders of their frequent flyer card plus I can take the Priority security lane at DUB thanks to this card, and am invited to board at my leisure.
- I can book connecting flights, and they have usually always issued my boarding cards on certain other airlines (such as AF) when I'm connecting.
- They have a long-haul products which does offer a business class.
- I'm not forced to print my boarding card, and they happily issue it for free at the airport for me if I wish!
- The cabin crews are usually professional and courteous and flights are usually on time.

You also say DUB will never become a transfer hub, well I get to differ as it is already becoming one. Have you recently, or ever, checked an EI route map in which they show their connecting flights from Europe to the US. The number of passengers flying from for example GVA, MAD or regional UK airports with EI to connect to their US flights is becoming quite popular (helped my marketing on EI's part, good fares, and US pre-clearence at DUB).

I respect your defense of FR which is apparent in a number of threads at the moment, but while FR is grand for you and the millions who fly them every year, it's not for many others of the traveling public. Just saw Skytrax rates it as a 2nd class airline (below industry standard) and the other airlines it shares this classification with speaks volumes of what many people think about FR.

Finally, perhaps listen on this thread to the Irish posters, who are the people who will be mostly affected if FR were to succeed in their hostile takeover bids of EI, and listen to their opinions about what we feel about these two Irish airlines. No matter what you want to believe, if FR were to succeed, it would only be beneficial to FR and would be detrimental to Aer Lingus and to the Irish flying public.
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
EIDL
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 21):
No,what i mean is the article mentioned when the deal is not approved and Ryanair will sell its stake in EI to Financial institutions. Those seem to be the ones to want to break up the airline according to the article.

I knew you meant that. That is what is the baseless scaremongering by FR.

FR's plans for EI are a break-up by any other name. So they're trying to convince people that their bid is the only one that will "save" EI. And it appears people are falling for it, just like they fall for FRs other claims about EI all the time.

If FR are barred from bidding or otherwise do not bid again, EI will not be broken up.
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:42 pm

Quoting EIDL (Reply 41):
I knew you meant that. That is what is the baseless scaremongering by FR.

FR's plans for EI are a break-up by any other name. So they're trying to convince people that their bid is the only one that will "save" EI. And it appears people are falling for it, just like they fall for FRs other claims about EI all the time.

If FR are barred from bidding or otherwise do not bid again, EI will not be broken up.

On the day Ryanair announced their first bid for Aerlingus, I attended an interview with a member of senior management at Ryanair. I made some small talk about the bid - the response?

"There's more than one way to skin a cat".

One strong airline group fighting for Ireland? - Bullshit.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
kl911
Topic Author
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting pesit4a (Reply 37):
So, please, can we drop the continental sense of superiority? Your own country is even smaller than Ireland - actually, only the size of one of our provinces. Does that mean that KLM should just pack up and not bother, or that Dutch consumers should be denied choice?

First of all, I have nothing against Ireland, I am actually looking at moving there   I was just using the size of the country ( the population actually) to point out that without transfer pax the market is very small, maybe for some routes too small.

KLM probably wouldnt exist without the 80% transfer pax they claim to carry.

What I also mean is that there will always be a full frills carrier from either Ireland or the destination country if the market is there, so together with Ryanair you have 3 choices: Go with FR, Go with the nonstop full frills airline, or take a connecting flight on a full frills airline if its cheaper and better. Many full frills airlines like KLM, Lufthnsa and Swiss offer now connection under 1 hour which makes the trip still quite fast.

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 40):
While you are totally right in the fact that Ireland is a small country with small population, in 2012 we were ranked the 25th busiest airport in Europe (over 18 million). That's a fairly big figure.

Yes it is, but is it mainly low yield tourism, or also high yield business? Companies use lcc's more and more for business travel. In the current economic climate I have even spotted at Budapest for example employees of oil giant Shell using Wizzair to and from Eindhoven.

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 40):
I respect your defense of FR which is apparent in a number of threads at the moment, but while FR is grand for you and the millions who fly them every year, it's not for many others of the traveling public

I am not married to FR, neither will I ever, but lately there has been so much FR bashing up to posting of false information that I decided to defend it because I enjoy flying them, never had a single problem with them and understand their business model.

I will for sure and with pleasure use EI if and when I move to Ireland, just not on a day and route where FR is cheaper because I dont need the frills.
 
EIDL
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:51 pm

Quoting pesit4a (Reply 42):
On the day Ryanair announced their first bid for Aerlingus, I attended an interview with a member of senior management at Ryanair. I made some small talk about the bid - the response?

"There's more than one way to skin a cat".

I'm not sure that any private finance group could be a more disruptive shareholder with a holding the size of FR than FR already are, though; if that's the approach they're taking.
 
pesit4a
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:01 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 43):

It's Ok, I dont think you have anything against Ireland, but I get annoyed at this "oh, its so tiny, its all tourism, there's no business traffic, this new long haul route will never work, etc etc"

Yes. Its tiny. But - it's also got a very busy airport, where about half of all traffic is business, a growing transfer business, and two vibrant, competing carriers. And that's how I want it to stay.

Toulouse mentioned that DUB is currently 25th in Europe. It would be tenth if FR had not shrunk its base by 35%. That is NOT the sort of carrier I want dominating this country. And before you blame recession - EI, BA, LH, LX, SK etc etc have all GROWN here during the recession.
You just can't keep a good man down!
 
Phen
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Sun Sep 23, 2012 10:02 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 43):
I will for sure and with pleasure use EI if and when I move to Ireland, just not on a day and route where FR is cheaper because I dont need the frills.

And I can guarantee that we who live here in Ireland do exactly that! I fly EI and FR in equal amounts, depending on the price! Ask the other Irish forum members and several will say the same. That is what healthy competition is all about! The fact is the Irish market is evidently strong enough to support two independent airlines and that is that. You can sing and dance about small island this and geographic location that all you like but nothing you say will change the fact that EI is profitable and there is NO good reason right now for it to be bought by its primary competitor.
 
PoianaMarco
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Wed Sep 26, 2012 1:43 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):

Well said. Indeed, there is no reason why such a small country should have more than just one airline. At least I dont see why, and taking in concideration that the few or less are low-fare airlines.
The secret behind a good working day is happy guests and to know that you have been giving 110% and not just 100 of seri
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Wed Sep 26, 2012 1:59 pm

Quoting PoianaMarco (Reply 47):

Well said. Indeed, there is no reason why such a small country should have more than just one airline.

SO you decide where a company can be set up..............regardless of your opinion Ireland has 5 airlines based there........sorry NOT just based their but actually started there. 3 of those are still in business while the larger 2 are profitable. Obviously this is a situation that should not continue any more, we should ensure that successful business's are closed as there geographical location does not fit into my opinion.
 
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Jambost
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RE: Ryanair Confident Of Aer Lingus Approval

Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:26 pm

Quoting PoianaMarco (Reply 47):

Iceland has 3 airlines serving a population of 320,000

Ireland airlines serving a population of 6.2 MILLION. [ Rep Ireland 4.5 Northern Ireland 1.8]

Airlines basing aircraft to serve the Island of Ireland:

BE
EI
FR THIS LIST EXCLUDES CHARTER AND CARGO OPERATORS
LS
RE
U2
WX

So all but 1 of these airlines should be dissolved or forced to use non based operations only?

[Edited 2012-09-26 09:30:57]
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