WarpSpeed
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787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:02 pm

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...ate-very-soon-perhaps-within-days/

Leeham.net is reporting that the 787-10 will be considered by the Boeing board for authority to offer (ATO) very soon. In fact, it may be considered at the October meeting.

This is a lot sooner than many have predicting - end of 2012/ beginning of 2013. Just last month (Aug), it appeared that the 777-X might receive ATO sooner than the -10

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...7-10-to-come-later-than-suggested/

The timing seems to comport very well with the latest chatter about Boeing struggling with how to best define the 777-X.

Should the Boeing board grant ATO for the 787-10 soon, what is the best estimate for EIS and which airlines will likely order (and how many)?
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LAXDESI
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:22 pm

I expect the B781 to be about 20,000 lbs. lighter than A359, with MTOW that is about 35,000 lbs. less than A351. B781 at 323 seats(marketing) will have 9 more seats than A359.

Quote:
The straight-forward stretch of the 787-9 will have less range (about 6,900nm) than either the -8 or -9 models, which comfortably top 8,000 nm but it is expected to carry around 323 passengers, putting it squarely in the class of the 777-200ER and the A350-900.

At 6,900nm, the airplane will cover most missions required by airlines. By foregoing a new wing and added fuel tankage, the operating weight of the airplane is expected to be roughly equal to the 787-9. A slightly higher-thrust engine will be required. Rolls-Royce announced a higher thrust version of the Trent 1000 now powering the 787 at the Farnborough Air Show, and insiders said this engine is specifically intended for the 787-10.
 
justinlee
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:23 pm

Personally, I think 787-10 will be the best seller in the 787 family. The proposed P2P long-haul routes seem to be impossible in this bad economy. Most airlines tend to use 787 to replace 763 or 332. So why not to buy a larger one?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Thread starter):
Should the Boeing board grant ATO for the 787-10 soon, what is the best estimate for EIS and which airlines will likely order (and how many)?

I could see EIS around 2016-2017, aiming for the next tranche of A330-300 and 777-200ER replacements.

As for airlines that order it, I think EK could be a customer (depending on range) and I could see it popular with United States and Asian carriers.
 
LH707330
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:06 pm

I put my chips on Lufthansa or Emirates signing up for a bunch of copies.
[edit] ...and then everyone else moving their orders up for the larger version....

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:07:08]
 
INFINITI329
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:27 pm

what market is the 787-10 geared towards? what aircraft can/will it replace?
 
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rotating14
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:35 pm

Ok, so the way I understand it, the 787-10, at current specs, would give airlines more capacity and sacrifice range. Is Boeing planning on tweeking the weight to add range while keeping the capacity the same?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:51 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 5):
what market is the 787-10 geared towards? what aircraft can/will it replace?

Missions up to around 10 hours / up to 9,000 km currently being flown by 777-200s, 777-200ERs, 777-300s, A330-300s and A340-300s.

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:51:38]
 
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zeke
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:29 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
By foregoing a new wing and added fuel tankage, the operating weight of the airplane is expected to be roughly equal to the 787-9.

It has to be heavier than the 787-9, longer fuselage, and more seats etc to accommodate the additional passengers.
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cosmofly
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:41 pm

Wow, I am excited. I have to believe that Boeing must have designed some level of -10 during the -9 phase. It will be interesting to see how Boeing ramps production up.

Quoting zeke (Reply 8):
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
By foregoing a new wing and added fuel tankage, the operating weight of the airplane is expected to be roughly equal to the 787-9.

It has to be heavier than the 787-9, longer fuselage, and more seats etc to accommodate the additional passengers.

I think it is about MTOW, so it means carrying less fuel.

Quoting WarpSpeed (Thread starter):
This is a lot sooner than many have predicting - end of 2012/ beginning of 2013. Just last month (Aug), it appeared that the 777-X might receive ATO sooner than the -10

Wonder if EK changed its mind and told B: Give me the -10 first. Your metal wing 777X schedule looks better than the CFRP one.   
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:47 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
I expect the B781 to be about 20,000 lbs. lighter than A359, with MTOW that is about 35,000 lbs. less than A351. B781 at 323 seats(marketing) will have 9 more seats than A359.

Boeing Posts Updated 787 Characteristics (by aerobee Dec 23 2011 in Tech Ops)

In a posting to the above thread Ferpe gave his reasons why he thought the OEW would be about 131t.
 
cosmofly
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:43 am

EK has probably been the primary launch customer target for a long time. Is EK finally ready?

http://www.radarvector.com/uploaded_images/787-10X-779064.jpg

So the 781 seat counts went from 290 to 323 with 9 abreast assuming 33 rows of Y.
 
qf002
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:16 am

QF's 10 A333's will be up for replacement early next decade -- I could easily see them ordering this aircraft (or perhaps just utilising existing options in place of the 789). There will also be some 744 capacity to replace, though I daresay that'll be handled by the 789's supposedly arriving from 2016.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:34 am

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 11):
EK has probably been the primary launch customer target for a long time. Is EK finally ready?

Would this aircraft make sense for EK? Totally, without any further context. It's probably the most fuel-efficient aircraft on the horizon for their Europe and Asia missions.

Will they buy it? I'm not convinced, for three reasons:

1) EK seems to be focused on growing aircraft size rather than frequency, and they already have a "small" (only in EK's world!) aircraft of nearly the same size on the way -- the A350-900.
2) Tim Clark's unhealthy obsession with 8000+ nm range when the bulk of his routes don't require it. Yes, he needs an 8000+ nm aircraft or two. No, his entire fleet doesn't need to be capable of it, but sometimes he doesn't seem to see that.
3) EK couldn't leverage the 787 family -- both of the other members are too small for EK to use, and unlike the A350 the 787 can't grow bigger without major changes.

Personally, I think the dead-obvious customers for this aircraft are the big European airlines. It has just enough range to fly all their North American and East Asian routes with a decent cargo load. It will also be a good 777-300A replacement.
 
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flylku
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:53 am

So, how many existing orders do we expect to be converted to the -10?
...are we there yet?
 
CM
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:40 am

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 5):
what market is the 787-10 geared towards?

The markets which are showing the most interest in the 787-10 are:

Europe-North America
Europe-Middle East
Intra Asia

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 13):
I think the dead-obvious customers for this aircraft are the big European airlines.

  

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 4):
I put my chips on Lufthansa or Emirates signing up for a bunch of copies.

  

Quoting flylku (Reply 14):
So, how many existing orders do we expect to be converted to the -10?

Few existing orders will have conversion rights to the 787-10. It would be unusual to give a customer conversion rights to a future derivative which is not defined at the time of the sale.

Quoting justinlee (Reply 2):
Personally, I think 787-10 will be the best seller in the 787 family.

The 787-10 will have limited ability to carry cargo on routes longer than about 4000nm. This will limit its attractiveness to operators who are are making money with belly cargo on those 10 hour routes.
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:32 am

If the authority to offer is being brought forward it is because one of the primary prospects for the 787-10 has decided they want the frame and is prepared to order. It might even be a couple going together and saying they will both order to get the aircraft launched. I would think one had to be Lufthansa if for nothing else than CM giving them as a litmus test for the 787-10 idea (only enough aircraft gives you efficiency) in a TechOps thread.

Which one the second would be (if there is a second) would be more of a guess.
Non French in France
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:22 am

So for the benefit of the thread here is a try to give the ballpart Payload-Range of the main contenders in such a race for the Lufthansa order, the 787-10, the 350-900 and as comparison the 330-300 (which Lufthansa already have). It is based on the data leaked for the 787-10 like 6800nm range, 193t MZFW etc:

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart787-10333359.jpg

This is a chart using spec values to make things comparable, for a realistic ariline config one would have to deduce almost 10t of extra cabin furnishing, a real crew size, catering, papers and LD3 container empty weights. Just move the 0 axis up 10t and you look at what is a realistic net payload.

What would have convinced Lufthansa to buy the 787-10 instead of the 350-900 would be its larger payload carrying capability at legs under 8 hours. Fuel burn for the 359 and 781 are very similar on a 10 hour leg at some 5.5t/h average. When comparing fuel burn vs payload the 781 would have an advantage (this is with a nominal OEW of 135t for the 359 and 131t for the 781).

This is all according to my model so should be consumed with a fair size grain of salt  , it should be a tick better then my old charts however as I now have the model do the whole diagram. Previously I used my old extrapolation method for max fuel and no payload breakpoints (not to reliable points as explained previously).


Edit: Friend of rationality would ask why the 789 which is some 8-7t lighter would not have a larger MZFW advantage over the 787-10, well I used the RR T1000-TEN for the 787-10 and the normal T1000 C for the 789.

[Edited 2012-09-28 23:35:08]
Non French in France
 
comorin
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:35 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 17):

Sir, presume weight in lbs and range in nm in your graph?

Thanks.
 
astuteman
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:57 am

Quoting CM (Reply 15):
It would be unusual to give a customer conversion rights to a future derivative which is not defined at the time of the sale

But not unheard of

Quoting comorin (Reply 18):
Sir, presume weight in lbs and range in nm in your graph?

I suspect the weights are in kg. - 60 000lb sounds very low as a max structural payload for a 300 seater. Pounds would also not align to the spec payload ranges for these aircraft.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 17):
Fuel burn for the 359 and 781 are very similar on a 10 hour leg at some 5.5t/h average. When comparing fuel burn vs payload the 781 would have an advantage (this is with a nominal OEW of 135t for the 359 and 131t for the 781).

Conversely, by 5 500Nm ESAD, your chart suggests a 25% payload advantage for the A359, which only grows as the range increases.

It's easy to see why weight creep is an important issue for the A359, though. If early frames are 5t overweight, they lose 1/2 that advantage at long range, and are disadvantaged at shorter range.

For me, they key dynamic is that I don't expect either plane to have a meaningful operating cost advantage over the other.
So it will be for the airlines to choose which fits their operating model better..

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TC957
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:27 am

I would think the big 3 in China and big 2 in Japan will get the 787-10 in good numbers over the next 10-15 years.
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:51 am

It is kg and nm (will put it on the chart from now on), click on the chart to see things better.

Should my assumption be correct one can wonder how an all Airbus 220-360 pax fleet could choose the 787-10. Well I can see Lufthansa looking at 787-9 and 350-900 and -1000 and telling Boeing to come forward with a 787-10 to stay in the race. LH would with a 787-10 and 350-1000 fleet be picking the best replacement possible for their 330-340 fleets and keeping their A and B strategy very much alive.
Non French in France
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:09 am

It wouldn't be a big order, but NZ would be ordering them to replace the 77W I am sure.The benefits for NZ of a single fleet type family would largely outweigh the negatives.
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
CXB77L
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:00 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 17):
So for the benefit of the thread here is a try to give the ballpart Payload-Range of the main contenders in such a race for the Lufthansa order, the 787-10, the 350-900 and as comparison the 330-300 (which Lufthansa already have). It is based on the data leaked for the 787-10 like 6800nm range, 193t MZFW etc:

Thanks for that. Based on that, the 787-10 is going to be one hell of an A333 replacement aircraft, with more range, more payload and more seats. It should be very attractive to airlines that require an aircraft for high capacity, high payload regional routes.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 22):
It wouldn't be a big order, but NZ would be ordering them to replace the 77W I am sure.The benefits for NZ of a single fleet type family would largely outweigh the negatives.

The 787-10 won't have enough size to replace the 77W - especially since NZ uses 10-abreast on the 77W. Although range shouldn't be a problem for NZ. On paper the 787-10 has a 6,900nm range, while NZ's longest route (AKL-YVR) is just 6,121nm. It may not be able to do a return trip into a strong headwind without weight restrictions.
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aerorobnz
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:26 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 23):
The 787-10 won't have enough size to replace the 77W

I don't it is a dealbreaker. The 78X is of a size that will justify full flights year round for a number of destinations on their network, vs the the 77W which is more limited in its use to only LAX & LHR
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
airbazar
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:06 pm

All things being relatively equal (A359 vs. 781), I just don't see LH burning political goodwill and ordering a Boeing. They could have ordered 787's when they ordered A333's and they didn't. That to me tells me that theiy have bet the house on the A350 for their next widebody replacement order.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:15 pm

I also continue to believe that LH would prefer to be an all-Airbus operator and therefore are, IMO, unlikely to order the 787-10 instead of the A350-900.

That being said, within the LH Group of airlines, I could see the 787-8, -9 and -10 finding a home with OS and SN and perhaps SK (with all staying Airbus for narrowbodies),

[Edited 2012-09-29 06:16:03]
 
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flylku
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:02 pm

Quoting CM (Reply 15):
Few existing orders will have conversion rights to the 787-10. It would be unusual to give a customer conversion rights to a future derivative which is not defined at the time of the sale.

Understood, but anything can be negotiated for the right price. I think it was the head of Cathay that said the 777-300 was the model Boeing should have built first. I am wondering if in the end the -10 will be the most popular 787 model.
...are we there yet?
 
flyingcello
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:45 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I also continue to believe that LH would prefer to be an all-Airbus operator

But have LH not publicly stated, or at least suggested, that they want to continue to dual source their fleet between A and B? Maybe the 748 is enough to satisfy this though...
 
lhcvg
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:57 pm

Quoting flyingcello (Reply 28):
But have LH not publicly stated, or at least suggested, that they want to continue to dual source their fleet between A and B? Maybe the 748 is enough to satisfy this though...

Yes that is correct. This has been publicly debunked numerous times - because of LH Technik alone, setting aside fleet planning per se, they are often willing to have a more diverse fleet than you might expect.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:59 pm

Quoting flyingcello (Reply 28):
But have LH not publicly stated, or at least suggested, that they want to continue to dual source their fleet between A and B?

I'm sure they have. And again, the LH Group is composed of more airlines than just LH, so even if LH themselves do not find a home for the 787, that does not immediately preclude the LH Group. OS, for example, could use the 787-8 to replace the 767-300ER and the 787-9 to replace the 777-200ER. And I agree with those who believe that an LH Group airline operating the 787 would be beneficial to Lufthansa Technik's ability to service 787 aircraft for other carriers.
 
Ronaldo747
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:02 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 25):
I just don't see LH burning political goodwill and ordering a Boeing.

Their policy is to have a mixed fleet from different producers. In the medium term they will have an all narrowbody-Airbus fleet and the 747 is the only Boeing-built aircraft. And there is some commonality with the GEnX, it would make sense to buy 787s.
 
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SQ22
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:16 pm

I don't know if the rumors regarding 787-10 and LH are true, but I know that they have a big MRO business and to run this business not only for A customers they need good relations with B as well. And how to get good relations with B? If they have the right product on offer buy it.

Believe me they always have to keep their several businesses in mind.

I think B don't care if LH Group is going to order planes for LH, LX, oS or SN as long as they are going to order some and then LH Technik will get all the things it wants to be able to do mx for some Boeing types as requested by LH Technik.
 
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Aesma
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:33 pm

What does ATO actually entail ? Does Boeing have to provide numbers (including prices) ?

Quoting justinlee (Reply 2):
The proposed P2P long-haul routes seem to be impossible in this bad economy.

Well, EIS is 5 years from now, I sure hope the economy will not be that bad then ! Now, fuel prices, it's another story.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
flightsimer
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:40 pm

But didn't LH just say a few months ago they were very much interested in a 787-10 and would love to launch if it materializes?

Let me see if I can find the article.
Commercial Pilot- SEL, MEL, Instrument
 
CM
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 19):
But not unheard of

True; open-ended conversion rights are possible for customers which receive highly incentiveized deals. More typically, conversion rights specify the models to which a slot can be converted.

Quoting flylku (Reply 27):
I am wondering if in the end the -10 will be the most popular 787 model.

It is certainly possible. In the past decade, rising fuel prices have heightened industry interest in the largest (lowest CASM) models within a family. This has not yet played out for the A351 or 747-8i, but it has certainly resulted in recent success for the A330-300, 777-300ER, A321, 737-900ER, 737-9, etc. This is particularly true for the A330-300, which has outsold the A330-200 in recent years.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 23):
the 787-10 is going to be one hell of an A333 replacement aircraft

The late success of the A330-300 despite it's "limitations" is not lost on Boeing. Not every airline and every market needs 8000nm range, even though that seems to be the bar the OEM's have set for most recent widebodies. The 787-10 will be a notable exception in this regard.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 25):
I just don't see LH burning political goodwill and ordering a Boeing.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I also continue to believe that LH would prefer to be an all-Airbus operator

LH is quintessentially German in their engineering and business culture. They are technically very competent, detail oriented, thorough, pragmatic, and agnostic to perceived outside pressures. Decisions are built on consensus from the bottom up, not the top down and leadership relies heavily the recommendations from below in order to make their decisions. LH is one of the only airlines I have ever worked with where the initial technical engagements for a fleet evaluation included junior engineers who felt comfortable/empowered to pepper senior technical leadership from Boeing with questions about the design and performance of the airplane. As the evaluations progressed, more and more senior LH leadership would participate, each new wave building on the work done by the level beneath them. In my experience, this approach is unique in this industry and I find it quite refreshing. I do not believe for a minute the executive leadership at LH would disregard their fleet evaluation team if a recommendation did not square with some perceived nationalistic or political dynamic. It is just not how the culture of decision-making within LH works. They will buy the airplane they believe works best for their business. At best, Euro-centric influence will be a tie breaker, not a weighted factor.
 
flightsimer
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:43 pm

Yup they did.

"Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa senior vice-president of corporate fleet" made the statement at ISTAT 2012.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...be-787-10x-launch-customer-369681/
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CM
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 33):
What does ATO actually entail ? Does Boeing have to provide numbers (including prices) ?

ATO only happens after a full business case can be evaluated by the Board of Directors. This will include:

Technical risks and readiness of the proposed configuration
Non-recurring costs (development & production system)
Recurring (unit) costs
Expected launch customers / units
Expected sale price per unit
Expected units over the life of the program
Expected competitor response (near term/long term)
Impact of capital costs on near-term Boeing cash and other business objectives
etc.
 
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Aesma
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:06 pm

Thanks, but what I meant is what would actually be offered ? Presumably slots, for a price, with guarantees on performance, final price, etc.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
CM
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:57 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 38):
what I meant is what would actually be offered ?

Everything you mentioned, including a "firm concept", which is decision gate 3 in the Boeing gated development process (similar to Airbus' "maturity gates"). Gate 3 is preceded by authority to show a configuration to airlines and followed by a launch decision by the board.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 36):
"Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa senior vice-president of corporate fleet" made the statement at ISTAT 2012.

From Jon's Flightglobal article:

Quote:
Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa senior vice-president of corporate fleet, sees the aircraft as an ideal fit for the carrier as the airframe is not over-optimised to fly further than necessary for its route network.

Hmmm....   

Quoting ferpe (Reply 16):
I would think one had to be Lufthansa if for nothing else than CM giving them as a litmus test for the 787-10 idea (only enough aircraft gives you efficiency) in a TechOps thread.

I am actually Nico's PR manager, it just took him a while to come out with the statement I had recommended about the 787-10  
 
LAXDESI
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:04 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 17):
It is based on the data leaked for the 787-10 like 6800nm range, 193t MZFW etc:

Leeham article suggests 6,900 nm design range. What is your source for 193t MZWF? 193t MZWF for B781 will give it about 12,000 lbs. MSP advantage over A359.

Assuming 193t MZWF for B781, my model suggests that B781 will burn about 500 gallons($1,500) more than A359(much larger wings) for a 4,000 nm trip. However, B781 will have 9 seat advantage and about 6,000 lbs. advantage in cargo capability.

I expect the B781 to have a lower list price than A359 based on current list prices for B789. On second thought, the difference is likely to be negligible.

[Edited 2012-09-29 13:09:50]
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):
What is (the) source for 193t MZWF?

Aspire Aviation.
 
LAXDESI
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:50 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):What is (the) source for 193t MZWF?
Aspire Aviation.

Thanks.

Operationally, B781 does not have a large advantage over A359 on sub-4000 nm sectors. I also don't expect it to have a meaningful advantage in net acquisition cost.

A carrier (like CX) with regional and long-haul routes may be inclined to use A359 for both. I can also see LH ordering A359(instead of B781) and A351 to replace about 65 A330/A340.
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:55 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):
What is your source for 193t MZWF

I first guessed about 192t myselves when I sketched the frame after the first data was leaked and then IIIRC Aspire wrote about the same size MZFW. You can't load that cabin and cargo floor otherwise I guess.

Re fuel burn, I get about 43t for both on a 4000nm trip. Re your fuel burn difference, what engines do you use on the 787-10? I have put on the T1000-TEN which is about 2% better then the PIP2 T1000 and 1% better then a final GEnx. I get this engine to only lack 1% TSFC to the TXWB.

[Edited 2012-09-29 14:00:48]
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Stitch
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 42):
Operationally, B781 does not have a large advantage over A359 on sub-4000 nm sectors. I also don't expect it to have a meaningful advantage in net acquisition cost.

The 787-10's longer cabin should allow an additional two rows of Economy (18 seats) and six LD3 positions.

Aspire Aviation's sources give an OEW of around 120 tons for the 787-10, which if true would be more than 10% less than the A350-900. That being said, I'd be surprised if it is that light since the 787-8's OEW is given by Boeing as 112t and Airbus believes the weight of the 787-9 without cabin fittings to be 8 tons higher than the 787-8 without cabin fittings. The Manufacturer Empty Weight growth from the 787-9 to 787-10 should not be as great as from the 787-8 to 787-9 as the 787-10 will use the same wings, undercarriage and many other components as the 787-9.
 
airbazar
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:39 pm

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 31):
Their policy is to have a mixed fleet from different producers.

Yes they keep saying that and yet, they keep ordering from Airbus. The only reason they ordered the 748i is because Airbus has nothing in that size. However, in every other size category, Airbus has something to match Boeing. Lufthansa Technik doesn;t need LH to order 787's. They have many customers other than LH, including being the maintenance company for JL's 787's.
 
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zeke
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sun Sep 30, 2012 2:25 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 17):

Airbus normally has variable weights, the MTOW graph you have there would change for a regional sector. They normally have a range of MZFWs and associated MTOWs to suit the sector being flown.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):

Probably made up then, he is a glorified blogger that window dresses things to make it sound official. He has been wrong so many times, and changes things without annotating the edits.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
LAXDESI
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sun Sep 30, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
The 787-10's longer cabin should allow an additional two rows of Economy (18 seats) and six LD3 positions.

I have B781 at about 4.5 feet longer than A359. I suppose two additional Y rows are possible, but I am inclined to go with 9 seat advantage(one row) for B781. You are right about additional six LD3 positions over A359, if B781 turns out to be an 18 foot stretch of B789.

I am also sceptical about B781(simple stretch) ending up with 425,000 lbs. MZFW (25,000 lbs. higher MZFW than B789). A359 MZFW is at about 423,000 lbs.

As of today, I am using 415,000 lbs.MZFW and MSP of 135,000 lbs for B781 in my model.
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:22 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 46):
Airbus normally has variable weights, the MTOW graph you have there would change for a regional sector. They normally have a range of MZFWs and associated MTOWs to suit the sector being flown.

Sure, I only calculate the max performance. I've understood from you and others that one paper derate then in the practical case to gain lower charges if one consistently use the frame on shorter sectors.
Non French in France
 
ferpe
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RE: 787-10 Authority To Offer Coming Soon

Sun Sep 30, 2012 4:24 am

Re the 781 cabin and cargo capacity vs the 359, I have them as:

781: 54.5m cabin and 44 LD3
359: 51.8m cabin and 36 LD3

The difference in pax should be 3 y rows which is significant but the difference in cargo space is remarkable. As CM writes you can't use it fully on sectors over 8 hours if your cabin is full. If your load factors is low you can compensate with lots of cargo however, you have the place. This might make the 781 the better alternative much dependent on your network and it's load factor variations.

So if you have a 70% cabin you would take some 13 LD3 for the bags, it leaves you 13 LD3s for cargo in the 359 and 21 in the 781. What would those 8 LD3s represent in money on a normal freight market?

[Edited 2012-09-29 21:57:47]
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