TakeOff
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How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:58 pm

Any information/insights would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance. TakeOff
 
wrldtvlr
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:08 pm

Last Friday I booked myself JFK-HNL-OGG roundtrip on HA for $499.50 departing November 6 return November 12. Pretty damn good fare, and the seat map looks pretty full. Not quite sure how they're making money on a fare like that, but I'm not complaining.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:50 pm

Wow, only $500 bucks round trip for a 10 hour flight? Of course the question is how many seats are going at that fare. I checked the Hawaiian website and they show multiple dates under $500 r/t between now and Thanksgiving. Fares are much higher around Christmas but that isn't a surprise. Not a good sign for this route....they must be losing their Aloha shirts.
 
azjubilee
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:59 pm

I'd hardly measure the success of a route based on a fare sale during what is traditionally the slowest part of the year. There's a fare sale to the west coast, Fukuoka and Auckland right now too, are those routes losing their "aloha shirts?" HA has maintained that the JFK route is beating all internal measurements of success and is beating out the established west coast routes in the same metrics. I think that we need to wait a full year of service to make final judgement wether the route is a success or not. HA also needs to give this route time to prove successful as they are a new brand on the east coast. Building brand awareness in this new market will also be the key to JFKs success. The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive. Now they need time to let the route mature.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive.

I think the jury's still out on whether there is demand for n/s service from NYC to Hawaii. New Yorkers are accustomed to traveling to the Carribean, Bahamas, Florida. Sure HA can fill flights to Hawaii but, again, $500 for a 10 hour flight has to hurt. That's pretty much giving it away...no wonder it's full.
 
azjubilee
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:31 am

As we all know, full flights don't necessarily translate to profits. However, we as the general public don't know what the fare breakdown is, how much cargo is being carried and how much the F cabin makes up for the lower ticket prices in Y.

Then there's the tired argument that east coasters would rather go to the Carribean, Florida or Bahamas. True, it's closer. True, they too have beaches. But there is nowhere like Hawaii. People go to Hawaii for more than sun and surf. I think people making that boring and oft repeated argument are being a little presumptuous as to the wants and needs of the east coast traveler. HA does their homework before launching a route. They believe the demand is there and that this is the most opportune time to be doing this service. The jury is still out on the success as again, I believe we need to see a years worth of data to make proper judgement. The route has been flying since June, just about 4 months now. It's way to early to rule this a failure or not.
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:53 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 5):
Then there's the tired argument that east coasters would rather go to the Carribean, Florida or Bahamas.

How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).
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panam330
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 4):
I think the jury's still out on whether there is demand for n/s service from NYC to Hawaii.

CO, then UA, has been doing it for the better part of a decade (if not longer) from EWR, so I'd say the demand is at least there for a daily 764.
 
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Pohakuloa
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:17 am

With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares. it has been my observation from insiders at HA that seat sales are not the be all end all on routes they choose to fly. HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo other than passenger bags and from the other types that fly to and from the mainland, they have the most potential to offset costs compared with the NB offerings. i took an airline management course and visited HA offices and gained some insight as to their forms of revenue streams as well. No links here, just observation and and real world learning experiences.
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hiflyeras
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:09 am

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 11):
HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo

I wouldn't be surprised by this. Shipping fresh seafood and flowers out of Hawaii are probably a huge business for HA. The return flights though might not bring in as much revenue.
 
azjubilee
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:20 am

I'm not discrediting anyones tenure in the industry nor am I saying anyone is wrong in their assertions. I'm just saying it's too early to tell. Also, using the fact that there are low fares, in the shoulder season as a barometer for the success of a very young route is a bit misguided and overly simplistic.

And yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired. Just like the similarly tired "Hawaii is all about trashy yields and frequent flier freebies" argument. Yes, they are overwhelmingly the biggest visitor to that catchment area, but they are actually allowed to look beyond those traditional markets. It turns out that there's an entire nation to the west of the east coast and that large population. Thinking outside the box here, while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

On wether there is a market or not... it just turns out that the State compiles statistics regarding visitors and where they come from. I'm pretty sure HAL has looked at them and has launched this route based on careful planning and data. There are many visitors each day that arrive from the East coast and this flight will further expand that market. To say that people from the east coast only go to FL etc... is simply narrow minded and rather patronizing to those that realize there are vacation opportunities beyond going south.
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:40 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired.

You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

But again, the "far" part is key, as that's what keeps many East Coast travelers going to Florida, the Caribbean (one R, two Bs - sorry, it's a pet peeve of mine), and the Bahamas, much in the same way West Coasters typically go to Hawaii instead of the Caribbean.

And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.
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Bobloblaw
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:43 am

The problem isn't traffic, it's going to be yield and fuel costs.
 
airbazar
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:05 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

That doesn't mean people wouldn't rather go to Hawaii. That just means the Caribbean is more accessible. I would rather go to Hawaii every year but I can't so I go to Florida instead.
 
azjubilee
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:11 am

EA CO AS - I've already submitted to the fact that more East coast visitors head down south. It's hard to dispute those facts, which I am not doing. What I'm saying is that there are still a large amount of visitor traffic from the east coast to Hawaii that can be using the 2 NY areas flights, the DC flight and the ATL flight. There is indeed demand, despite the love affair with the CaRiBBean, Florida and the Bahamas. The arguable superiority of Hawaii over other beach destinations is a moot point and really immaterial to the discussion. The bottom line is that people in the millions arrive in Hawaii every year from points that originate in the Eastern part of the USA and this is despite the close proximity of the beach destinations to the south. HAL provides yet another alternative to those who are obviously heading west.
 
idlewildchild
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:12 am

Work colleague just flew them JFK-HNL-SYD-HNL-JFK and said they were excellent, for every flight. She said she highly recommended them. The flights were on time, meals were good and overall service was excellent, on every flight. She also mentioned the flights were full.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:21 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

This is purely speculative and simply untrue. Mexican resort destinations draw people from points ALL over North America.

I grew up in Texas and never once traveled to Cabo. When I moved to the Midwest six years ago, I went to Cabo for the first time, and while I was there, I met people from Boston, New York, Philly, D.C., North Carolina and Virginia. Granted, they were college kids on Spring Break like us, but my point is that people aren't just drawn to specific places just due to proximity. Sure, geographic locations are advantageous, but people will travel further if they feel the inspiration to do so and the price is compelling.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
And yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired. Just like the similarly tired "Hawaii is all about trashy yields and frequent flier freebies" argument. Yes, they are overwhelmingly the biggest visitor to that catchment area, but they are actually allowed to look beyond those traditional markets. It turns out that there's an entire nation to the west of the east coast and that large population. Thinking outside the box here, while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

I completely agree. As I said above, geographic location does play some role, but people get tired of repetition. The NYC catchment area is full of very wealthy families who are looking for something novel. Hawaii indeed offers treasures that cannot be found in Florida nor the Caribbean, both culturally, geographically and historically.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
On wether there is a market or not... it just turns out that the State compiles statistics regarding visitors and where they come from. I'm pretty sure HAL has looked at them and has launched this route based on careful planning and data.

   HA is done their homework on this one and they are a very smart, well-managed carrier. They don't just throw spaghetti on the world map hoping a route will stick. If it doesn't work, it will be pulled, but so far, I don't see that being a pattern nor a problem with HA's international ops.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

What facts? You seem to be basing said "facts" off of your own perceptions (see below quote)

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

While nothing wrong with this, this is not a fact, this is an opinion...
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BMI727
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:49 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

It is true, but New York has enough people with enough money that success on JFK-HNL isn't really surprising. I'm not optimistic that the success could be duplicated without feed on the mainland side at other destinations.
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ssteve
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:06 am

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 11):
With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares.

How would the arrangement with JetBlue work for connecting passengers? It looks like B6/HA is charging a bit of a premium over other airlines on routes like BOS-HNL, BTV-HNL or PWM-HNL. Doesn't seem to indicate they're desperate to fill the plane with connecting passengers if they're not matching fares on any of those routes.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:22 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

It's all about the yield. AS attempted seasonal SEA-CUN for many years but the yields were poor. It was a 6hr flight but they couldn't raise fares any higher than those to Cabo or PVR (a 5hr flight) without pushback. Was sad to see the route dropped but it couldn't turn a profit. A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length. Heck, a 7hr flight from JFK to LHR is about $900.
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:37 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

This is purely speculative and simply untrue.

  

Hogwash. DOT data backs it up, as does the fact that nonstop service to CUN from the West Coast is difficult to maintain due to demand (and yield) that is lower than from the East Coast and Midwest. Look at the airlines that tried (and failed) at making LAX-CUN work, for example. Then look at the multitude of nonstops from East Coast destinations.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

What facts?

Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.
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wn676
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:43 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 12):
Shipping fresh seafood and flowers out of Hawaii are probably a huge business for HA. The return flights though might not bring in as much revenue.

Strangely enough, my airline tends to ship a lot of fresh flowers to Honolulu fairly often. There's lots of stuff going each direction.
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ChiGB1973
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:52 am

It's fairly simple to figure out who is coming from where.

http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.or...h/reports/annual-visitor-research/

It's kinda general, but settles several arguments on here.

As far as HA or any other airline on this route, I cannot find any data nor sure it's available. I looked at www.bts.gov and cannot find statistics.

I wish them luck though.

M
 
Superman24
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:00 am

Hey everyone,

Seems like some of you are going off topic. Just flew JFK-HNL-OGG on September 24th and the first leg was 100% full. My cousin flew the next day and said the same thing. Looks like they are doing good.

Cheers!
 
HNLPointShoot
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:04 am

Quoting wn676 (Reply 25):
Strangely enough, my airline tends to ship a lot of fresh flowers to Honolulu fairly often. There's lots of stuff going each direction.

For flowers, it depends on the specific species of plant; for example, orchids are mostly imported from Asia (see this Hawaii News Now article about flooding in Thailand causing a shortage of orchids for leis in Hawaii) while anthurium and plumeria are usually exported.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 24):
Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.

Just wondering, but where in the DOT data does it give information on tourist travel from NYC? I've been poking around http://www.transtats.bts.gov/ and I can't figure out where that data is located.

[Edited 2012-10-03 23:10:05]
 
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ssteve
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:27 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 23):
A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length.

That's not how pricing works in an environment where you have to match fares. EWR-HNL nonstop on United is $465!
 
unityofsaints
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:44 am

I think the question won't be whether there is enough demand NYC to Hawai'i at the proper yields - there is. The question is do people really value the daytime nonstop? No real opportunity to sleep and in the end it's only practical if you want to HNL and not one of the other islands.

If I was going NYC - OGG (for example) I'd fly NYC - ORD/DEN/LAX/SFO - OGG, not NYC-HNL-OGG (provided price is the same).
 
airbazar
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:30 pm

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 19):
A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length. Heck, a 7hr flight from JFK to LHR is about $900.

Nonsense. Look at the actual fare and you'll find that it's on par with your examples. The problem is that international tickets add on huge taxes and fees, sometimes doubling the actual fare whereas domestic tickets don't have such astronomical taxes and fees.
 
dlflynhayn
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:27 pm

DL ATL-HNL average fare this month is around $800-1000 non-stop,although a one stop via LAX,SEA is a little cheaper.Anyways good luck to HA there gonna need it.
 
ordbosewr
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 27):
The problem is that international tickets add on huge taxes and fees, sometimes doubling the actual fare whereas domestic tickets don't have such astronomical taxes and fees.

Many of those 'fees' are actually fuel (aka international) surcharges. I call that part of the fare. That is money the airline gets. It is not passed on to governments, etc.

Here is a recent ticket I had from Newark to Barcelona Spain:
Fare Breakdown
Airfare: 622.00 USD
International Surcharge: 476.00
U.S. Federal Transportation Tax: 33.40
U.S. Customs User Fee: 5.50
U.S. Immigration User Fee: 7.00
U.S. APHIS User Fee: 5.00
September 11th Security Fee: 2.50
Spain Departure Charge: 12.80
Spain Security Tax: 2.90
U.S. Passenger Facility Charge: 4.50
Per Person Total: 1,171.60 USD

The airline is getting 1098 out of 1171.
I would say United did pretty good for me and may family on this trip....Yes, other countries and airports have higher fees (I know as for this trip we were going to France and we booked Spain because it is cheaper than Paris to fly in and out of).
 
daviation
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:59 pm

I just flew HA's new JFK-HNL service in July and August. I've lived in NYC and the NYC-area all my life. I'm tired of the Caribbean and Florida and Bermuda.

Both of my flights were completely full. However, I can easily say that in coach, HA has the best service I've ever received on a domestic airline.

And as our friend HAL has pointed out on this board, the stage length doesn't matter in pricing. I'm sure HA has researched this route very carefully, and I hope it's a success. Continental/United has had this nonstop route from EWR for many years.

I'd love to return to Hawaii.
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planereality
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:35 pm

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 4):
The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive

Never flown Hawaiin, but product does have a great reputation... which class contributes to that reputation? Both? And what are the highlights? Food? IFE?
Andiamo!
 
GARUDAROD
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:48 pm

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 8):
With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares. it has been my observation from insiders at HA that seat sales are not the be all end all on routes they choose to fly. HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo other than passenger bags and from the other types that fly to and from the mainland, they have the most potential to offset costs compared with the NB offerings. i took an airline management course and visited HA offices and gained some insight as to their forms of revenue streams as well. No links here, just observation and and real world learning experiences.

I know for a fact this flight is restricted to the amount of cargo they can carry because
of the ETOPS regulations, so in this instance, I dont think cargo is as much as a
determining factor in beyond yield benefits as some other markets.
That being said, when you are moving 260 or passengers a day, unless you are selling $99
fares, which HA is not, you are making some pretty good revenue.
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:10 pm

This is a flagship route with lots of attention.

Loads seem good. No idea on yields.

Given ny first statment barring a spike in fuel...this flight sticks around. Delta should have beat them to it...and now it would be a bloodbath if they tried
 
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aloha73g
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:24 pm

Keep in mind that HA's business model & cost structure are designed to be profitable flying economy passengers to/from Hawaii. They have a relatively small premium cabin. Only 6.1% of HA's A330 seats and 6.8% of their 763 seats are first class vs 10% on an AS 738, 10.7% on a DL 753, 11.1% on a UA 753, 11.7% on an AA 752. Also, HA doesn't give away first class to anyone. They have figured out how to make money flying leisure leisure routes while providing industry leading service & amenities.

I don't think a fare sale during one of the slowest times of the year for Hawai'i's tourism is indicative of their financial performance on the route. I got a tweet yesterday that HA is offering $297 round-trips from the Bay Area too during October & November. All comments from management to investors & analysts indicate the JFK is performing better than they expected it would.

Aloha!
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rampart
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:06 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

Iin that case, that would be an opinion, not the facts or data you seem to want. You don't speak for all East Coasters. I feel quite the opposite. I would bet, unless you can show data otherwise, since you are into data, that a reasonable proportion of people prefer Hawaii to the Caribbean. And I'm purposefully vague on "reasonable proportion", just saying that HA has the supposition that there is enough market to warrant a flight of their own. At any rate, your N=1 opinion, not data, does not supercede my N=1 opinion.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 13):
That doesn't mean people wouldn't rather go to Hawaii. That just means the Caribbean is more accessible. I would rather go to Hawaii every year but I can't so I go to Florida instead.

Exactly.

-Rampart
 
AeroWesty
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

I've been to Hawaii numerous times and the Caribbean a few times, but enjoy Hawaii more without the stifling Caribbean humidity.

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 34):
I don't think a fare sale during one of the slowest times of the year for Hawai'i's tourism is indicative of their financial performance on the route.

   It could even be said that a fare sale on the route, during a period when seats would go out empty, may be a cheap way to raise their profile in the New York area.
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IrishAyes
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:30 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 20):
Hogwash. DOT data backs it up, as does the fact that nonstop service to CUN from the West Coast is difficult to maintain due to demand (and yield) that is lower than from the East Coast and Midwest. Look at the airlines that tried (and failed) at making LAX-CUN work, for example. Then look at the multitude of nonstops from East Coast destinations.

I see the following:

Air Transat: Vancouver, Calgary (seasonal), Edmonton (seasonal)
CanJet: Vancouver, Edmonton (seasonal), Kelowna (seasonal)
Delta: Los Angeles, Salt Lake City
Enerjet: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver (all seasonal)
Sunwing: Edmonton, Vancouver
United: San Francisco, Los Angeles
US Airways: Phoenix
Virgin America: Los Angeles, San Francisco
WestJet: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Kelowna (seasonal)

That's a fairly sizable group of airlines and destinations. And, pray tell, which airlines have tried and "failed" to make LAXCUN work? for the week of 24-DEC-12, I am seeing 19x services from LAX to Cancun weekly.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 20):
Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.

I don't need to look it up. I am not trying to dispute your point that the bulk of CUN traffic hails from the East Coast and similarly the bulk of the SJD/PVR etc. traffic comes from the West Coast.

What I am trying to point out here is that your position that it all boils down to proximity and travel time is largely flawed.

Looking at the CUN data, for example, it's incredible how much international traffic CUN draws from OUTSIDE of North America: Russia, Argentina, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Chile, Portugal, Finland, Belgium, U.K., Denmark and so many places in between on nonstop services.

The same goes for Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. You ever wonder why Europeans, especially Spaniards, would hop on a 10-14 hour flight when they can easily head to plenty of beaches all over the Mediterranean. Or Brazilians when they have some of the most BEAUTIFUL beaches in the world so close by!!!!!

It's because of the discretionary travel market. For a Russian or Brazilian family of four, sometimes a package vacation to Punta Cana can ultimately be less expensive than a visit to Mallorca or Porto Alegre, despite the much shorter commute. If the value of the Ruble, Real, Euro etc. can be stretched even further and provide a new and exciting opportunity to visit an exotic destination, they'll jump at the chance.

The situation is no different with Hawaii in the US, although I do agree it is questionable whether or not HA is able to fill up its JFK flight profitably at such fare levels, and while cheap tickets to Hawaii are not that difficult to come by, it is indeed expensive to visit.
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IrishAyes
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:36 pm

Quoting Superman24 (Reply 23):
Seems like some of you are going off topic. Just flew JFK-HNL-OGG on September 24th and the first leg was 100% full. My cousin flew the next day and said the same thing. Looks like they are doing good.

This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter. A very basic, but highly important, principle of revenue management to always bear in mind.
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 37):
I am not trying to dispute your point that the bulk of CUN traffic hails from the East Coast and similarly the bulk of the SJD/PVR etc. traffic comes from the West Coast.

Fine, then - we're in agreement on that. I was just pointing out that calling it "a tired argument" is BS.
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:03 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter.

They're at least charging a little more than UA is on EWR-HNL, and probably flying fewer mileage redeemers. If they're doing poorly with full planes at higher fares, stands to reason the other guys are maybe doing worse.

[Edited 2012-10-04 16:04:07]
 
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mariner
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:11 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter. A very basic, but highly important, principle of revenue management to always bear in mind.

I don't think mentioned profit - he just said his flight was full. The OP didn't mention profit, either.

Time was when no one expected a new airline route to be profitable for a year or two. These days people seem to want it to happen on the first flight.

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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 40):
and probably flying fewer mileage redeemers.

Not sure why that'd be the case. HA has quite a few airline partners, including AA. Strangely though, you can earn/burn AAdvantage miles on HA (changes are due Oct 31st though), but you can't earn/burn on AA flights using the HawaiianMiles FF plan.
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:51 pm

$500 on NYC-HNL might not be great...but consider that most airlines on those same dates offer JFK-LAX for $298. JFK-LAX is within a couple of miles of being 1/2 the distance of JFK-HNL and it's supposed to be a "high yield" market. Just because a couple of people got a good deal on JFK-Hawaii doesn't mean Hawaiian is losing their shirts off.
 
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:51 am

While tourism between the mainland & Hawaii has seen a surge this calendar year, it's a derivative of falling fares. This upcoming winter, one can purchase a ticket between the west cost & Hawaii for ~$400, and UA's nonstop flights from EWR & IAD have plenty of availability for ~$650-$750. These fares aren't sustainable, and unless demand at higher fare levels occurs real soon, we'll see capacity rescind (and probably sooner than later).

Hawaii is a very beautiful place, but I don't understand why some people believe it's the Holy Grail of vacationing. People will travel to Hawaii if it's cheap, but look elsewhere when costs soar. From the Eastern USA, growth in tourism has lagged that to Mexico/Caribbean for many years.

Quoting OOer (Reply 43):
$500 on NYC-HNL might not be great...but consider that most airlines on those same dates offer JFK-LAX for $298.

Although economy fares between JFK-LAX regularly sell for sub-$300, most of those flights have a significant number of passengers paying $3500 or more to sit up front. Meanwhile, fewer people pay to sit up front to Hawaii -- and at significantly cheaper prices (for example, DL charges sub-$2000 for ATL-HNL nonstop). .
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EA CO AS
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:28 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 44):
Although economy fares between JFK-LAX regularly sell for sub-$300, most of those flights have a significant number of passengers paying $3500 or more to sit up front.

And sheer numbers of customers PDEW vs. other markets; you get a far larger overall customer base to spread your fixed costs over.
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mariner
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:44 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 44):
From the Eastern USA, growth in tourism has lagged that to Mexico/Caribbean for many years.

That;s completely unsurprising. But it doesn't say that here is NO market between New York and Hawaii.

Nor are those pax necessarily all going to Hawaii. They may not represent a huge connection market, but there may well be some. It's a neat way to Asia or Australia/NZ - a couple of days on a tropical island along the way.

I really can't see why some are so poopy about this. Given Hawaiian's recent track record, it may know rather more about its own market than anyone here.

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airportugal310
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:59 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
I really can't see why some are so poopy about this. Given Hawaiian's recent track record, it may know rather more about its own market than anyone here.

        

Thanks for having faith!
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compensateme
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:01 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
That;s completely unsurprising. But it doesn't say that here is NO market between New York and Hawaii.

I didn't say that. But early anecdotal evidence suggests that the market cannot support two daily nonstops (and each carrier carries a fair share of connecting traffic) -- there's no way current fare levels are sustainable. Maybe the problem will correct itself, maybe it won't and one carrier will give.

There will always be a market to Hawaii, but when sustainable fares are nearly 3x those to Mexican & Caribbean beaches closer to home, the market will be limited.
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mariner
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RE: How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:56 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 47):
Thanks for having faith!

Thanks, but it isn't actually a question of having faith - I give Hawaiian management the benefit of the doubt, that they know what they are doing.

The negativity here seems based on a whole lot of stuff about the Caribbean, possibly a different market, and that quoted $500 fare, on a young route at the slowest time of the year. I just checked several days in deeper winter and the lowest I could get, without making a song and dance about it, were fares that are three and four times that number.

I have no idea how the route will eventually do, but it seems to me to have potential, at least.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-04 20:57:48]
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