JOYA380B747
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Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:35 pm

Greetings A.netters, it gives me great pleasure in starting a thread for Indian Aviation on A.net for the first time.

As far as current developments are concerned, AI is finally shifting HQ to Delhi citing inflow of cash by renting out Nariman Point building and less expense in moving company officials back and forth between their HQ and the country's capital.

Does this have any implications on the airlines' operations?

Regds
If it wasn't for AI and those money mongers sitting in the parliament, 9W would have been as big as SQ...:(
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:21 pm

This will have limited operational implications.

However, it will piss off quite a few babus who now have to relocate..
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:25 pm

Kerala pressing ahead with airline project to serve ME destinations by April 2013. It is not clear if they will be able to get a waiver from the ministry on the five year/20 aircraft rule.

If it ever materialises, Air Kerala has a better chance at long term profitably than AI as the equity share of state govt. will be less than 26%.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/displaya...27.xml§ion=international&col=
Quote:
The Kerala Government is pressing ahead with a plan to materialise a popular demand to launch the state’s own airline — Air Kerala — after weighing the challenges currently faced by the global aviation sector, Ramesh Chennithala, the head of the state unit of the ruling Congress Party, said on Tuesday.

The Kerala government’s plan is to launch Air Kerala with five leased aircraft. Initially, the focus of operation will be destinations in the Middle East, which has a large concentration of expatriate Keralites.

.
 
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:31 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 2):
Kerala pressing ahead with airline project to serve ME destinations by April 2013. It is not clear if they will be able to get a waiver from the ministry on the five year/20 aircraft rule.

If it ever materialises, Air Kerala has a better chance at long term profitably than AI as the equity share of state govt. will be less than 26%.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/displaya...27.xml§ion=international&col=
Quote:
The Kerala Government is pressing ahead with a plan to materialise a popular demand to launch the state’s own airline — Air Kerala — after weighing the challenges currently faced by the global aviation sector, Ramesh Chennithala, the head of the state unit of the ruling Congress Party, said on Tuesday.

The Kerala government’s plan is to launch Air Kerala with five leased aircraft. Initially, the focus of operation will be destinations in the Middle East, which has a large concentration of expatriate Keralites.

It's an idiotic idea, and will probably flop.
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:49 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 3):
It's an idiotic idea, and will probably flop.

It is certainly less idiotic than bailing out AI. GOI is expected to spend nearly $6 billion to save AI with about 18,000 employees, which is about $300,000 per employee.

It will be smarter for GOI to offer a buyout to each AI employee to the tune of $200,000(avg. depending on position), and spend the rest on aviation infrastructure.

Btw, I agree that Air Kerala is likely to fail.

[Edited 2012-10-12 12:50:15]
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:59 pm

Air India is completely irrelevant. Just because GoI is wasting more money on them, that does not make it a good idea for govt to waste money on another carrier.

Regardless, IX which serves the routes which Air Kerala is looking at, is marginally profitable operationally. And that's exactly where it should be - the airline exists to provide a public service, not to make money hand over fist. Adding competition to that is just going to destroy the little mercies in our aviation sector...
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:10 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 5):
Regardless, IX which serves the routes which Air Kerala is looking at, is marginally profitable operationally.

Does AI report separate official numbers for AI express? Do you have a link?

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 5):
And that's exactly where it should be - the airline exists to provide a public service, not to make money hand over fist.

Role of GOI should be to provide infrastructure, and not run an airline which needs to be subsidised and bailed out frequently.

India can do without the likes of AI, which drain GOI resources away from much needed investments in infrastructure, including aviation.
 
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:39 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 6):
Does AI report separate official numbers for AI express? Do you have a link?

The data is available but very fudged up for a variety of reasons - IX shares 25% of revenue with AI, and shares a little over 20% of costs...

AI hasn't published profitability data for IX since last year, so I unfortunately do not have a public link.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 6):

Role of GOI should be to provide infrastructure, and not run an airline which needs to be subsidised and bailed out frequently.

India can do without the likes of AI, which drain GOI resources away from much needed investments in infrastructure, including aviation.

That's a nice sentiment, but it doesn't actually mean anything. If GoI isn't wasting money on AI, they will be wasting that money on populist, destructive schemes like NREGA. What money is spent on infrastructure improvements will mostly end up in Swiss bank accounts - actual infrastructure change will be minimal at best.

Honestly, it's all irrelevant. GoI will do what it wants to do, and the taxpayer will be stuck with the bag at the end of the day anyway...
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 7):
What money is spent on infrastructure improvements will mostly end up in Swiss bank accounts - actual infrastructure change will be minimal at best.

I disagree. On my last visit to MAA, I saw a brand new international terminal(not operational yet). I am sure some portion of the budget went to politicians and bureaucrats, but at least MAA has a new terminal.

Btw, MAA is getting a new subway system. I know a sub-contactor in MAA who is involved with this project, and hear a lot of stories on how funds get diverted. However, it is nowhere near the "most" characterization that you have used.

I will take a new terminal or subway over AI any day.
 
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vishaljo
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:59 pm

At homebase
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Photo © Vishal Jolapara - Indian Aviation Photographers

 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 8):
I disagree. On my last visit to MAA, I saw a brand new international terminal(not operational yet). I am sure some portion of the budget went to politicians and bureaucrats, but at least MAA has a new terminal.

BLR, HYD, DEL, and (soon) CCU also have new terminals. Each of them could have been made for a fraction of the cost in a less corrupt country.

I'm not saying that infrastructure isn't coming up - it is... Just not at the rate and price-point which it needs to.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 8):
Btw, MAA is getting a new subway system. I know a sub-contactor in MAA who is involved with this project, and hear a lot of stories on how funds get diverted. However, it is nowhere near the "most" characterization that you have used.

Please keep in mind that every subcontractor will have lots of stories. When you add all of the diversions together, it's absolutely amazing that a subway system is being created in the first place! Only in India...

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 8):
I will take a new terminal or subway over AI any day.

But you don't have the choice between a new terminal or AI. You have the choice period - the politicians choose. And even if you were a politician with the choice, your choice would be which official's pocket to line, not the actual product which comes out of it...

The point you're missing sir is that at the end of the day, corruption and vote banks are what drives the system. Air India exists not because somebody thinks that it will help the people of India, or it will make money. AI exists to make money for the politicians in charge, to attract the vote banks (unions), to blackmail competitors ("we'll drop prices to unprofitable levels unless you send a cheque"), or to help them ("we'll drop this profitable route we developed so that you can take it over - cheque please").
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:01 pm

Maybe I missed the discussion, but what's the scoop on this?

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-...to-halt-flights-through-oct-dot-20

Quote:
MUMBAI, India (AP) — An Indian court Friday ordered the arrest of the highflying owner of Kingfisher Airlines for bouncing checks, adding to the beleaguered airline's woes as its struggles to resume flights that have been grounded since the start of the month.
What the...?
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:03 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 11):
Maybe I missed the discussion, but what's the scoop on this?

He's been out of the country. Whenever he gets back, he'll get bail immediately.

*yawn* There are other things to be followed up on...
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:52 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 12):

No doubt he has enough cash he's saved up from not paying employees to pay off whomever he needs.
What the...?
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:12 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 13):
No doubt he has enough cash he's saved up from not paying employees to pay off whomever he needs.

No, that's not it. Here in India, we have this concept called anticipatory bail, where you can get bail before you even get an arrest warrant against you. So even though this warrant is non-bailable, the anticipatory bail (if Mallya has filed for it) will allow him to remain scot free until the case is quietly dropped.
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golfradio
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:38 am

Quoting vishaljo (Reply 9):

Great shot! I have a lot of memories from the Kalina OPS center. Is AI going to keep the maintenance facilities in BOM or is it going to move to DEL as well.   
I really resent the new DEL centric focus for AI. With BOM becoming increasinly irrelevant to AI, I am losing all interest in AI.
Bring back the old site.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 13):

Fantastic...sounds like the perfect gift for a man who has everything...except, (soon enough), an airline.
What the...?
 
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AirIndia
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:33 am

Air India celebrating 80 years of commencing operations. Oct 15th 1932 was the first flight as Tata Airlines.

From wiki:

Quote:
On 15 October 1932, J.R.D. Tata flew a single-engined De Havilland Puss Moth carrying air mail (postal mail of Imperial Airways) from Karachi's Drigh Road Aerodrome to Bombay's Juhu Airstrip via Ahmedabad. The aircraft continued to Madras via Bellary piloted by Vintcent (aviator Nevill Vintcent)
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:59 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 14):

I was going to quote you in #16 but I missed.
What the...?
 
cricket
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:32 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 3):
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 2):
Kerala pressing ahead with airline project to serve ME destinations by April 2013. It is not clear if they will be able to get a waiver from the ministry on the five year/20 aircraft rule.

If it ever materialises, Air Kerala has a better chance at long term profitably than AI as the equity share of state govt. will be less than 26%.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/displaya...27.xml§ion=international&col=
Quote:
The Kerala Government is pressing ahead with a plan to materialise a popular demand to launch the state’s own airline — Air Kerala — after weighing the challenges currently faced by the global aviation sector, Ramesh Chennithala, the head of the state unit of the ruling Congress Party, said on Tuesday.

The Kerala government’s plan is to launch Air Kerala with five leased aircraft. Initially, the focus of operation will be destinations in the Middle East, which has a large concentration of expatriate Keralites.

It's an idiotic idea, and will probably flop.

And no exceptions should be made to the 5 year/20 aircraft rule. Either abolish it completely or enforce it strictly.
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aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:49 pm

Quoting Cricket (Reply 19):
And no exceptions should be made to the 5 year/20 aircraft rule. Either abolish it completely or enforce it strictly.

GoAir has been lobbying hard to get it removed - I wouldn't be surprised to see it dropped in the near future.
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tayaramecanici
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:46 am

Quoting Cricket (Reply 19):
And no exceptions should be made to the 5 year/20 aircraft rule. Either abolish it completely or enforce it strictly.

Enforcement of this single rule has resulted in the demise of KFA now and Paramount in the past. Both the airlines were excellent biz models and had a fair chance to succeed had it not been for this one rule. Additionally NG bourghtoff Sahara only to stave off competition on the Intl sector, a right they had acquired and leveraged in valuation.

KFA went into the disasterous takeover of DN and ended up taking ownership of its poorly contracted leases and aircraft purchase with an eye on flying abroad, VM in his arrogance grounded the DN fleet to his owm misery. After Virgin if there was any airline brand that attracted more droolling punters, it was KFA. They could have slowly but surely taken all their orders and successfully deployed these new jets with the same pax that now fly BA, EK or SQ.

The squashing of this rule will result in more competiton by India based airline, rather than an EK, EY, SQ or QR dumping their excess capacity into India and killing Indian airlines. This will benefit Indian travellers, Indian workers and the Indian economy. The south of India has adequate pax catchment to develop multiple city pairs to neighbouring countries to break the stranglehold of the hubs in ME or SE-Asia.The same is true for the western belt, Vadodra,Surat, Pune, Nagpur, Ratnagiri all have the potential for flts to BAH, SHJ or RAK.LCC based there like Air Asia or Air Arabia are evidence to this fact.

I cannot understand how does anybody morally support this rule if they have a genuine interest in the development of Indian aviation. Get rid of this rule forthwith, unconditionally.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Tue Oct 16, 2012 7:42 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 21):
Enforcement of this single rule has resulted in the demise of KFA now and Paramount in the past. Both the airlines were excellent biz models and had a fair chance to succeed had it not been for this one rule. Additionally NG bourghtoff Sahara only to stave off competition on the Intl sector, a right they had acquired and leveraged in valuation.

WHAT?

This rule most certainly did not kill IT and I7. Their own stupidity and mismanagement did. IT had no business model, and probably wouldn't have survived regardless.
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:03 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 21):
Get rid of this rule forthwith, unconditionally.

CM of Kerala is confident that Air Kerala will be given a waiver from the 5 year/20 aircraft rule. He has cited AI express as an example.

One can only hope that instead of a waiver, Air Kerala is accommodated by rescission of the current rule.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:22 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 23):
CM of Kerala is confident that Air Kerala will be given a waiver from the 5 year/20 aircraft rule. He has cited AI express as an example.

IX was given waiver because it was a wholly owned subsidiary of an airline which met requirements. Similarly, CD or S2 would be able to operate internationally if they didn't meet requirements.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 23):
One can only hope that instead of a waiver, Air Kerala is accommodated by rescission of the current rule.

Absolutely!
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:17 am

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 21):
Enforcement of this single rule has resulted in the demise of KFA now and Paramount in the past. Both the airlines were excellent biz models and had a fair chance to succeed had it not been for this one rule.

I thought it was bad management  
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 20):
GoAir has been lobbying hard to get it removed - I wouldn't be surprised to see it dropped in the near future.

Strong possibility.

Quoting vishaljo (Reply 9):
GoAir has been lobbying hard to get it removed - I wouldn't be surprised to see it dropped in the near future.

Cool picture.....
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BLRAviation
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:55 pm

Is GMR playing around with Mallya? Get a judge to order issue of non-bailable warrants, but then not pay the court fees so that the NBW is not issued. http://www.livemint.com/Companies/TI...t-Mallya-over-bounced-cheques.html

Sort holding a Damocles sword over the Big Boss?
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:55 pm

Kingfisher Airlines settles GMR dues, warrants against Vijay Mallya withdrawn.
http://www1.economictimes.indiatimes...withdrawn/articleshow/16854770.cms

Quote:
The ailing airline Kingfisher AirlinesBSE 5.00 % (KFA) has on Wednesday cleared the Rs 10.5 crore of dues to GMR, the owner of Hyderabad International Airport, and arrived at a settlement to cancel the non-bailable warrants served on its chairman Vijay Mallya and four senior executives.
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:37 pm

I have a question about the terminal construction work on at BOM......are they going to build a new large terminal which will handle both domestic and international, like DEL? If so, what will happen to the domestic terminals in future? If not, is any better link between the two terminals planned?
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:07 am

DGCA rejects Kingfisher Airlines winter schedule; stock down

''The minister added that disgruntled and unpaid employees are a risk''

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...tock-down/articleshow/16861459.cms

Atlast, some common sense has dawned upon the MoCA/DGCA wherein they admit the risk of disgruntled employees working on Pax aircrafts.

Coming back to the ''5yr/20ac rule''. This major barrier to entry stops competition from entering the markets.
1. What we are witnessing this winter in India is a form of cartelisation where the existing players decide on a base fare and deploy capacity to match it. In short there is an agreement between the top and bottom of the sector to carve out the market, this is obviously not healthy for the pax, economy or the airlines themselves. The reason being that International airlines competing with the domestic carriers will damage the lower tier Indian airlines i.e. AI, which will react by deploying excess capacity into the domestic sector and then the whole bun fight starts all over again.

2. New entrants bring a fresh approach to the competition and a sound management can make the difference. I mention this observing the growth of Ryan Air and Easyjet. When EZY started in LTN, the existing players created every possible hurdle, but due to their solid biz plan and shrewd focused management they managed to beat every competiton, same with FR across europe. The freedom to start a route was their greatest weapon in fighting the competition where the created new routes and targeted the existing cartels.

3. The 5yr rule is so debilitating that growth for 5yrs at a steady pace reaching 20 aircrafts is next to impossible in a market which is dominanted by the likes of AI at the bottom end. GO is eveidence of this, its hardly an encouraging sign for any entrepreneur.

4. I can understand the argument that others had to bear this, especially 9W, which struggled for long before they were allowed to fly (i wont get into how NG managed to start-up with 100%FDI and now they are questioning his holding) but then we can't be stuck in an evidently draconian rule, there has to be a change in this. Even the argument to lower this to say 3yrs or 2yrs is defeating, Because there are many Intl city pairs that might be low yielding than say metro routes within India however these could be profitable enough for the start-up helping stimulate the market there.

5. Inspite of all his mistakes, you have to credit DN for changing the mindset in the market. Subsequent to his entry 6E and SG started too and now you see where they are, 9W and AI stuck to their biz models and most of the rules are protecting them. 9W is behaving more like a national airline and encouraging this cartelisation, i can see it merging with AI in the not so distant future.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
JOYA380B747
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:00 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 29):
9W is behaving more like a national airline and encouraging this cartelisation, i can see it merging with AI in the not so distant future.

Unless AI is back in profits, I don't see that happening, so if at all this were to happen it would be in a rather distant future.
If it wasn't for AI and those money mongers sitting in the parliament, 9W would have been as big as SQ...:(
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Thu Oct 18, 2012 4:22 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 29):
9W is behaving more like a national airline and encouraging this cartelisation, i can see it merging with AI in the not so distant future.

Why on earth would 9W want to merge with AI?  
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:54 pm

Latest data on market share.
http://www1.economictimes.indiatimes...s-further/articleshow/16866326.cms

Quote:
Low cost carrier IndiGo has maintained its lead as market leader for the third successive month by flying the largest number of passengers in the domestic skies with a market share of 27.2% in September, while air traffic shrank further.

Meanwhile, while erstwhile market leader Jet Airways' share in the domestic passenger pie shrunk further to 23.8% compared with the last month when it carried 25.2%, Air India expanded its market share flying 19.3% travelers.

While trouble stricken Kingfiher Airlines share hovered around at 3.5%, those of budget carriers SpiceJet and GoAir remained static compared with August at 18.5% and 7.6% respectively.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 32):
IndiGo has maintained its lead as market leader for the third successive month by flying the largest number of passengers in the domestic skies with a market share of 27.2% in September

Very interesting.

This ties in with Winter flight planning:
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...sher-airlines-flights-alliance-air

From above:
IndiGo would operate 2,447 flights, compared to 1,879 last year,
SpiceJet 2,233 compared to 2,051
GoAir 675 as against 588.
Air India-Alliance Air would operate 2,169 flights, compared to 2,313 last year
Jet Airways-JetLite would together fly 3,369 services compared to 3,780 in 2011

Significantly, the flight schedule of crisis-ridden Kingfisher Airlines has not been approved by aviation regulator DGCA. Kingfisher, which has declared a lockout till October 20 with its employees on strike to demand pending wages, had last year flown 2,930 flights.

The trend favors the low cost operator. Interesting that there is a 19% drop in Indian flights YOY. If IT doesn't restart flying, that is a significant contraction.

Kingfisher keeps extending the lockout, now to November 5th:
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/jc...ends-lockout-until-5-November.html


Lightsaber
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:50 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 33):
Interesting that there is a 19% drop in Indian flights YOY. If IT doesn't restart flying, that is a significant contraction.

A significant contraction in flights, but I expect passenger numbers not to decline as much as the current aggregate load factor is around 80%. Expect full flights at higher prices, and perhaps higher aggregate profits for the industry.
 
BLRAviation
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:59 am

I did an analysis of the Q2 FY2013 passenger numbers. Within the quarter itself (not year on year) i.e. July to September passenger numbers are down 11.5%. 9W is down almost 21%. IndiGo almost 11%  

Air fares are a huge driver, as PLFs are below 70%.
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LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 6:16 am

Kingfisher Airlines stares at licence suspension.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/b...uspension/articleshow/16873079.cms

Quote:
Crisis-ridden Kingfisher Airlines could be on the verge of having its flying licence suspended. Like scores of its unpaid employees, vendors and service providers, the aviation ministry is also going to look for real money - and not just promises or timelines to pay - in the reply the airline has to file to Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA)'s notice by Saturday.

Unless convinced that Kingfisher has the resources to operate as a schedule airline and maintain its timetable of flights with full safety, highly placed aviation authorities say they will go for licence suspension. "Kingfisher is on cash and carry by most service providers. We do not want a situation where the airline restarts operations and then keeps flying in fits and starts whenever its unpaid employees are not on strike and the service providers refusing to service it. We have seen enough of that since last November," said a senior official.

A formal decision on the airline's licence could be taken next week.
 
sankaps
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 6:28 am

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 21):
Enforcement of this single rule has resulted in the demise of KFA now and Paramount in the past. Both the airlines were excellent biz models and had a fair chance to succeed had it not been for this one rule.

Completely disagree. Indias domestic market is where most of the value is for Indian carriers. KFA had a poor businrss plan, poor management, more money than brains (today they are bankrupt but hopefully wiser), and an owner who did things based on his whim. That is why KFA has collapsed. Paramount just had the wrong business model.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:57 am

Airline owners need to get proper motivated & functioning managers to run their company.
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:45 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 37):
Completely disagree. Indias domestic market is where most of the value is for Indian carriers. KFA had a poor businrss plan, poor management, more money than brains (today they are bankrupt but hopefully wiser), and an owner who did things based on his whim. That is why KFA has collapsed. Paramount just had the wrong business model.

The value proposition is enhanced with a Intl network, a purely domestic network is only profitable on the Trunk routes while others struggle KFA as a brand, during its launch was at its peak,they targeted the top cream. Evidence of success of that is the better pricing they commanded, the oneworld alliance and their impact resulted in Virgin exiting BOM. Undoubtedly KFA has been mismanaged however the decision to buy DN was thrust upon them due to the 5yr rule.

If you claim, 6E as having been thru the pain of the 5yr rule, i'll have to highlight they ordered 100 aircrafts to start with, significant discounts would have been secured on this purchase. A sale-lease back with even 5% profits on each aircraft would have seen them cushioned against the vagaries of domestic sector.

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 31):
Why on earth would 9W want to merge with AI?

Its been less than 24hrs since my last post and the figures for Aug-Sept show AI going past 9W, obviously its been due to AI's lower tik prices affecting the only other full service carrier 9W, as predicted in my post on the reaction of the lower segment of the market.
I do admit it sound very far fetched but looking at the above scenario where now the most significant competitor for 9W is AI, what does gaming theory tell you ? Additionally going by their previous move to buy S2, which i said earlier as in the case of KFA-DN was a forced decision, an AI with a lower head count and new aircrafts alongwith its significant routes can be surely merged with 9W. In case KFA losses its license, the Govt owned FIs will be taking a huge hit, why can't the govt offer a similar write off in the case of AI with a chance to survive. The govt is actively talking of consolidation in the industry, this could be it.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
sankaps
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 39):
If you claim, 6E as having been thru the pain of the 5yr rule, i'll have to highlight they ordered 100 aircrafts to start with, significant discounts would have been secured on this purchase. A sale-lease back with even 5% profits on each aircraft would have seen them cushioned against the vagaries of domestic sector.

Exactly. They had a solid strategy and business plan as well as sound management, all of the above did not happen accidentally.

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 39):
Evidence of success of that is the better pricing they commanded, the oneworld alliance and their impact resulted in Virgin exiting BOM.

Until their final year, KFA was priced at a discount to full service airlines both domestically and internationally. Oneworld alliance was only because Jet for a long time was anti-alliance, and then seemed to lean closer to both Star and SkyTeam. KFA was the only available option for OW. Certainly not their preferred option. Air-India was a non-option.
 
sankaps
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:53 pm

A good write-up on the Kingfisher saga here (except the author evidently does not know the meaning of the word "pulchritude")

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main54....sp?filename=Op271012Kingfisher.asp
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 40):
Exactly. They had a solid strategy and business plan as well as sound management, all of the above did not happen accidentally

Well not many start-ups across the world can place an order for 100 aircrafts, unless offcource you are a Rakesh gangwal or a David neeleman. The point i mentioned and support throughout is the fact that KFA/VJM was forced to take the disasterous of buying DN simply because of the 5yr rule (DN had an order for 60+ aircrafts at the time of buyout, in 2012, IIRC 64 of the 92 aircrafts with KFA were DN orders). Had that rule been missing the outcome would have been definately a lot better.


Quoting sankaps (Reply 40):
Until their final year

Pleased to see you accept they commanded a premium for over 5yrs of their 6yr ops, this was inspite of the steady decline.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 40):
Oneworld alliance was only because Jet for a long time was anti-alliance, and then seemed to lean closer to both Star and SkyTeam. KFA was the only available option for OW.

Again here they managed to get into the alliance at a very early stage, which reflected on acceptance by a leading industry benchmark.

[Edited 2012-10-19 11:40:33]
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:23 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 42):
Well not many start-ups across the world can place an order for 100 aircrafts, unless offcource you are a Rakesh gangwal or a David neeleman. The point i mentioned and support throughout is the fact that KFA/VJM was forced to take the disasterous of buying DN simply because of the 5yr rule (DN had an order for 60+ aircrafts at the time of buyout, in 2012, IIRC 64 of the 92 aircrafts with KFA were DN orders). Had that rule been missing the outcome would have been definately a lot better.

I'm still not following your logic. Kingfisher didn't have to do anything. There is plenty of unexploited potential in the domestic market, as SG has been demonstrating with many of their new routes.

The reason IT bought DN was to feed Vijay Mallya's ego. If it was analyzed from a business perspective, even the most incompetent manager would know what a disaster it would turn out to be. So much debt, so many unneeded orders, such a poor state of operations.

You're using the 5 year rule as a scapegoat for Kingfisher's poor management.
Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:42 pm

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43):
You're using the 5 year rule as a scapegoat for Kingfisher's poor management.

Why wasn't IT able to get the ministry to drop the five year rule? Larger suitcases from Deccan and Jet?
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 8:29 pm

Air India invites bids for 12 of its 23 floors in its Nariman Point building. Is it planning to keep the rest for its BOM staff? Do they need that many floors if the HQ will be in DEL?

http://www1.economictimes.indiatimes...-building/articleshow/16879870.cms
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 8:38 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 45):
Air India invites bids for 12 of its 23 floors in its Nariman Point building. Is it planning to keep the rest for its BOM staff? Do they need that many floors if the HQ will be in DEL?

Many floors are already leased out...

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 44):
Why wasn't IT able to get the ministry to drop the five year rule? Larger suitcases from Deccan and Jet?

Probably. Or maybe they thought it would be more cost-effective to buy DN than get the rule changed, Who knows.

The point is that it was a stupid decision from the start.
Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:12 pm

Air India offers five Boeing 777LRs for sale.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...-for-sale/articleshow/16880243.cms

The largest operators of 772LRs are EK, Delta, Qatar, and AC. Will any of them be interested? How about Ethiopian? Any airline that does not operate this type but could use it for the right price?

Since AI has eight 772LRs, they must be planning to keep three. What current routes would the LRs make more sense than 77W or 788? They would need 772LRs if they are planning on offering non-stop to SFO/LAX.

Why can't the GOI buy one for President/PM of India?
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:14 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 44):
Why wasn't IT able to get the ministry to drop the five year rule? Larger suitcases from Deccan and Jet?

Surely, there is plenty of circumstantial evidence to suggest S2 had the blessings of S.Pawar. Amby valley the subroto roy project in Lonavala is right next to the controversial Lavasa project and had the blessings of Pawar, as stated by himself. The 2004 edition of India today had N.Goyal among the top 5 industrialist close to the congress camp. Capt Gopi happens to come from the same village as Devegowda, conveniently.

Crony capitalism is like the mafia, where the Don carves out territories for all to keep the peace, some do end up drawing the short straw.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Indian Aviation Thread: Part 101

Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:52 pm

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 39):
I do admit it sound very far fetched but looking at the above scenario where now the most significant competitor for 9W is AI, what does gaming theory tell you ? Additionally going by their previous move to buy S2, which i said earlier as in the case of KFA-DN was a forced decision, an AI with a lower head count and new aircrafts alongwith its significant routes can be surely merged with 9W. In case KFA losses its license, the Govt owned FIs will be taking a huge hit, why can't the govt offer a similar write off in the case of AI with a chance to survive. The govt is actively talking of consolidation in the industry, this could be it.

I get what you're hinting at......however, I'm not too sure of how familiar you are with Indian matters.....in my opinion, the owners of 9W wouldn't go anywhere near AI, even if it was available......dealing with the GOI, the unions (especially the unions!!) and all walks of political parties, all of whom would pitch in to make their opinions known strongly.......it's a sure shot formula for ensuring disaster shortly down the line......just look at the merger of AI and IC (two govt owned airlines) and see the mess created....even their pilots don't see eye to eye!!

9W surely has growth plans for the future, but there are better ways to grow in the Indian market.......