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mariner
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New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:59 pm

A couple of items to start things off.

I've been scratching my head at the power that the Mercer freeholders have, because, presumably, if they had voted against Frontier the service wouldn't have happened.

Happily, they voted unanimously in favor of it:

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...ercer_county_freeholders_unan.html

"Mercer County Freeholders unanimously pass Frontier Airlines agreement

We are here at the right time, with the right plane and the right strategy,” said Robert Ashcroft, Frontier’s senior vice president for finance, during his presentation to the freeholders yesterday. He said ticket sales had already been robust for the scheduled flights to and from Orlando, Fla."


But not to be Little Mary Sunshine, there is a downside at TTN. Signature has just dropped its flights to Bedford MA (its only commercial flights), and while the Freeholders were positive, they were not all starry-eyed:

“In my years on this board we have had a lot of airlines come in here and I’ve heard them all and they all promised a lot of things,” Carabelli said. “But I am willing to keep on trying until we hit pay dirt.”

Given the notorious NIMBY-ism there, though, I wonder what happens IF Frontier (or anyone) adds flights at TTN - what number the tipping point against new service would be?

Separately, Frontier's on-time performance at DEN has improved. For the second month in a row it is #1 of the Big Three airlines there - although not #1 overall:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/ne...er-posts-best-on-time-rate-of.html

"Frontier posts best on-time rate of DIA's big 3 airlines"

The new COO - Bendo - at work, perhaps?

And AMR has announced COU-DFW and COU-ORD - I wonder if this hurts or improves the chances of COU-DEN?

mariner
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:34 pm

I understand you like F9 but why do we need this thread anymore? We should do what we do with every other airline and have a thread for a specific topic. It makes it more organized and gives each topic a common ground. I think this chain thread should be closed for good.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:40 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 1):
I understand you like F9 but why do we need this thread anymore? We should do what we do with every other airline and have a thread for a specific topic. It makes it more organized and gives each topic a common ground. I think this chain thread should be closed for good.


As I recall, you started thread #38, the last thread, which reached 282 posts.   

You can always ask for deletion and we can go back to the old days, when there would often be four or five live Frontier threads. I'm easy either way.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-12 11:44:38]
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KBJCpilot
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:55 pm

I prefer it this way as I really got tired of reading all of the Frontier threads where there would be duplicate posts and debate throughout all threads. As a vendor to F9 I find these discussions helpful and they help me communicate with my contacts inside of Frontier which adds value to our relationship. I can honestly say that because of these threads my company has been better informed and better able to help Frontier realize thousands of dollars in savings over the past 18 months.

Keep 'em coming.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:56 pm

For TTN I understand the boards frustration as the airport has been not the best record of success but i think it really has potential especially in this high fuel world we are in. Florida has already proven succesful indiviudually as a route for Eastwind regardless of the airline and NIMBYs. I did not see any mention in the article of the county/state/airport etc giving Frontier any money which i thought was interesting? Granted i am on a smart phone but is Frontier trying TTN unsubsidized? I have not seen anything and tried to look that up. Eastwind did proove there is a solid market from TTN to Florida is someone flys it its the safest destination

Quoting mariner (Thread starter):
And AMR has announced COU-DFW and COU-ORD - I wonder if this hurts or improves the chances of COU-DEN?

I would say hurts. I think most airports and businesses would rather have AA Eagle with more daily type regional service and its connection power than Frontier. Frontier might be better for low budget vacationers etc but they are also more willing to drive to MCI or STL anyway with the family in a mini van. The businesses probably really wanted Eagle over a less than daily service and who can blame them.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:02 pm

With TTN. I understand the boards frustration as the airport has been not the best record of success but i think it really has potential especially in this high fuel world we are in. Florida has already proven succesful indiviudually as a route for Eastwind regardless of the airline and NIMBYs. I hope Frontier flies this i would hate to see TTN sit there

Quoting mariner (Thread starter):
And AMR has announced COU-DFW and COU-ORD - I wonder if this hurts or improves the chances of COU-DEN?

I would say hurts. I think most airports and businesses would rather have AA Eagle with more daily type regional service and its connection power than Frontier. Frontier might be better for vacationers etc but they are also more willing to drive to MCI or STL anyway with the family in a mini van.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:20 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 4):
I did not see any mention in the article of the county/state/airport etc giving Frontier any money which i thought was interesting?

That surprised me - as in fall over in shock. I wonder if there is deal that falls outside the scope of this - or if, indeed, Frontier is "going it alone."

if so, that changes things. If so, it suggests that Silent Siegel is not risk averse.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 5):
I would say hurts. I think most airports and businesses would rather have AA Eagle with more daily type regional service and its connection power than Frontier. Frontier might be better for vacationers etc but they are also more willing to drive to MCI or STL anyway with the family in a mini van.

I think it toss a coin, just because it is DEN - which, according to some reports, is the "favored destination" from COU.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/2012/sep/19/airport/

"I was surprised to learn the other day from a presumably reliable source that more people flying from Columbia would aim for Denver than Chicago, but upon a bit of contemplation I can believe it. Both are attractive destination cities. Denver is the largest hub to the entire west. Chicago is only one of several going northeast."

Doesn't mean it would be Frontier, of course. With American and Delta at COU, can United be far behind?

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-12 12:24:25]
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:14 pm

LJ (Larry Jr.) (N934FR) took off from South Bend, Indiana this morning marking Frontier's inaugural flight from SBN-DEN. The flight was full. Now Michiana travelers do not need to connect at ORD to get to someplace in the west. The flight is also perfectly timed as the folks do not need to get up early as they would if connecting in DTW or ORD. I think we can also thank Allegiant for stimulating the traffic at SBN making these SBN-DEN flights viable for Frontier. As folks can see in the video the old A3 jetway easily fit the A319 and also F9 now has the biggest pushback tractor at the airport.

http://www.wndu.com/home/headlines/N...enver-to-South-Bend-173941631.html
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:22 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
You can always ask for deletion and we can go back to the old days, when there would often be four or five live Frontier threads. I'm easy either way.

I mean its nothing against anyone, I just think it would be better to do what we do with every other airline instead of grouping it. B6 makes just a many announcements but their we have no problems with separate threads. Just my 2 cents.   
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:57 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 8):
I mean its nothing against anyone, I just think it would be better to do what we do with every other airline instead of grouping it. B6 makes just a many announcements but their we have no problems with separate threads. Just my 2 cents.

For whatever reason (perhaps before your time here?) Frontier has always attracted a lot of threads, seemingly more than several other airlines, which is why these "omnibus" came about. At the time they were started, there were six live Frontier threads.

Surely, the concept of them has attracted negativity, not just from Southwest supporters, and there have also been attempts to start omnibus threads about other airlines.

Not everything said here warrants its own thread and there are other live threads about Frontier now. Here, for example:

F9 To Relocate To MSY? (by QF74 Oct 9 2012 in Civil Aviation)

So I'm not sure what the perceived problem is and people seem to like these threads, whether their attitudes to Frontier are positive or, quite often, negative.

If not, if no one is interested, these threads will simply go away - for that lack of interest.

As I've said, I'm easy, I'll post anywhere. My known interest in Frontier has long made me wary of starting these - but I probably wouldn't post some of the information that comes to me in other threads.

mariner
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 5:08 am

After 39 threads, each with hundreds of posts, I would tend to say the Frontier threads are a clear success. Why should we kill off something that clearly has been well-received by so many? Besides, there are a number of other similar threads, though they tend to be geo-politically vs carrier related.

Anyhow, I hope the threads continue. I've learned a lot about Frontier as well as the industry as a whole.

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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 4:54 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 1):

With less than two months of tenure to A-net lets file this in the Greenhorn stack.

Quoting KBJCpilot (Reply 3):
I prefer it this way

As do I, a single carrier (usually) where multiple interest or subjects issues can be discussed. Consolidation in most cases is sound.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 5:18 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 11):
With less than two months of tenure to A-net

Well I have been here not as a member for years, none the less it was just to see what people thought.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 5:26 pm

Mariner,
I have been hearing through a lot of sources about a tie-up/merger/acquisition between Spirit and Frontier.
With the ex CFO of Frontier now at Spirit, the rumblings are even more so. I was wondering what your
thoughts on this were. You are the resident expert on all things F9. Do you see this happening?
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:02 pm

Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 13):
I have been hearing through a lot of sources about a tie-up/merger/acquisition between Spirit and Frontier.
With the ex CFO of Frontier now at Spirit, the rumblings are even more so. I was wondering what your
thoughts on this were.

I haven't heard anything about that - which doesn't mean it isn't happening, only that I haven;t heard about it.

Anything is possible, but a sale to another airline is the least likely of the three options available to Republic.

I don't think any other airline would pay enough money.

Assuming all goes to plan, that Frontier becomes continuously profitable, then even as a minority investor Republic is likely to make out like bandits with the eventual IPO of the eventual spin-off and BB has said Republic will be "patient investors" until it happens.

I have always thought that TPG might have some interest in this, since Silent Siegel is "their guy."

But if someone comes along and offers a big stash of cash, that could easily change. It would have to be a fairly big stash, though.

It's a long game and it's a money game - more than an airline game.  

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-13 11:03:37]
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:44 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 12):
Well I have been here not as a member for years,

A belated welcome.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:14 am

Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 13):
Mariner,
I have been hearing through a lot of sources about a tie-up/merger/acquisition between Spirit and Frontier.
With the ex CFO of Frontier now at Spirit, the rumblings are even more so. I was wondering what your
thoughts on this were. You are the resident expert on all things F9. Do you see this happening?

This rumor has been going on for years. I am sure the two sides have sat down a few times. F9 is becoming more attractive now that it is generating profits, and turning around. However, that raises the price big time for F9. I agree that it would be a great tie up for both airlines for sure. One important thing to consider is the difference in culture. If F9 becomes Spirit, it would require a dramatic change to F9 and its employees. If Spirit became Frontier, it would require a dramatic change to Spirit and its employees. Kind of a culture shock if you ask me.

If it did happen, I would much rather see F9 name and style remain, and perhaps adapt to some of Spirits ways. Again, this rumor has been active for years. There was also the rumor of G4, and even US. Whatever the case, it appears that F9 is going it solo, and has really changed for the better. Excited to hear about the possibility of a new IFE system on F9! Now, that is not the Spirit way.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:11 am

Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 13):
a tie-up/merger/acquisition between Spirit and Frontier.
Quoting F9animal (Reply 16):
I would much rather see F9 name and style remain, and perhaps adapt to some of Spirits ways. Again, this rumor has been active for years.

Going into the world of what-if, assuming that there is any tie-up/merger/acquisition between F9 and NK, I think that it best be one in which both remain separate carriers, and have one corporate entity manage any synergies that would occur with this. Something along the lines of AF/KL (although reportedly the AF brand is dragging down the profits KL brings in) because it seems that any diddlling, especially with F9, would just upset a lot of balance that F9 has recently achieved to become profitable. And NK also works pretty well as it is now.

So...... there probably are synergies to be realized and gained with such a consolidation. However, each brand has of late become set in how they achieve their profits, and both have their niches (and big picture-wise somehow non-complimentary with each other) in which it seems that even any slight changes could very well upset the profitable balance that both carriers now produce.

 
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 3:37 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 15):
A belated welcome.

Hahaha, thank you!
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:42 pm

Smarter Travel top 10 poll of air carriers who offer on-board IFE http://www.smartertravel.com/photo-g...ml?id=241&photo=27180&max_photos=7

I am completely shocked F9 did not make it in the top ten of the poll. If you compare apples with apples I thought their IFE product is as good if not better than a couple carriers which made the list. Any thoughts as to why? My first thought was the poll was skewed in someway possibly because of the ULCC branding.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 14):
I haven't heard anything about that - which doesn't mean it isn't happening, only that I haven;t heard about it.

Anything is possible, but a sale to another airline is the least likely of the three options available to Republic.

I don't think any other airline would pay enough money.

Assuming all goes to plan, that Frontier becomes continuously profitable, then even as a minority investor Republic is likely to make out like bandits with the eventual IPO of the eventual spin-off and BB has said Republic will be "patient investors" until it happens.

I have always thought that TPG might have some interest in this, since Silent Siegel is "their guy."

But if someone comes along and offers a big stash of cash, that could easily change. It would have to be a fairly big stash, though.

It's a long game and it's a money game - more than an airline game.

I dont think Republic is even thinking they can ever break even on Frontier/Midwest from all the money they spent and time and additional employees studying planning moving the HQ then removing it back to Denver etc etc.


They have to be "patient" investors i dont think they have a single option right now...no one wants to buy a DEN hub, no one needs the airbus fleet so badly, and who is gonna buy Frontier stock right now?

Even best case lets say frontier is continuously profitable its still unstable and vulnerable no one is gonna throw mega bucks for it will they? I know you love Frontier but i think Republic is willing to loose money in a sale easily to get it off its hands. I doubt anyone there thinks its ever gonna be a good profitable long term investment they just have to act like that they its an investment and they want to sell it and look optomistic. Making money a few quarters or years is not going to cover Republic either i think they would prefer to just get out quickly the option doesnt exist right now. If spirit wants it they would demand a great price im sure Denver is a risky market but Republic would sell at a loss IMHO to how much they have thrown into the airline. In the end its an investment Republic clearly wishes they didnt make and will spin off the airline if they have too not make a ton in cash but to get it out of their hands. i would not listen to a work Republic or Frontier says they have to say its looking good Republic cant publically say they want to ditch it but moving the HQ and wanting to spin it off are clearly that its called buyers remource and the store has no return policy. I think Republic very much wants a sale its just that no one wants to buy it and acquire that DEN hub and be up against WN and UA except maybe spirit. Spirit would be a great option for Frontier IMHO they are shifting ot the ULCC format anyway and it would keep alot of the jobs in Denver and MCO woudlnt it? Times are so tough i want prices to remain competative and people to keep their jobs obviously
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:30 pm

Anybody notice the website newfrontierairlines.com? It's worth a look. Think what you will about this proposal, but this John Miller gets an "A" for ambition and effort. What do you suppose the likelihood of this actually happening and being a success?
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:42 pm

Quoting airlinewatcher1 (Reply 21):
Anybody notice the website newfrontierairlines.com? It's worth a look. Think what you will about this proposal, but this John Miller gets an "A" for ambition and effort. What do you suppose the likelihood of this actually happening and being a success?

Very low chance it happens or could be successful. Thru lots of trial and error all profitable hub cities are already hubs or being on the way out i think.

I questioned how authentic that website is? I made many similar hypothetical papers and proposals as an MBA student that would have looked just like that.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:55 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 20):
I dont think Republic is even thinking they can ever break even on Frontier/Midwest from all the money they spent and time and additional employees studying planning moving the HQ then removing it back to Denver etc etc.

Sorry, but BB has said it.

He explained what was going on to the staff, and said Republic will make its money on the eventual IPO - and until then they will be "patient investors."

No private investor expects to make money, at least it the venture days, from an airline's profits - they expect to make money from the IPO - even the 2PO.

Venture capitalist George Soros hasn't made any money from JetBlue's profits, it's never declared a dividend. He sold a big bunch of shares with the IPO and just afterwards, when the share were about $40 - and are worth $5 now.

Oaktree Capital did a similar thing with Spirit. It didn't hand around waiting to make its money back from profits. It sold a big bunch of shares with the IPO and then sold the rest of them later. Oaktree is now completely out of Spirit.

Republic is the venture capitalist here.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 20):
They have to be "patient" investors i dont think they have a single option right now...no one wants to buy a DEN hub, no one needs the airbus fleet so badly, and who is gonna buy Frontier stock right now?

No one, because - again - they're not selling it "right now."

The whole thing rests on Frontier becoming continuously profitable, at which point the equation changes. This is why Silent Siegel is so laser focussed on profit - not growth.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 20):
I know you love Frontier but i think Republic is willing to loose money in a sale easily to get it off its hands.

I don't know what my supposed "love" for Frontier has to do with it. I'm just going by what BB has said and my ownunderstanding of how these deals are done.

There is also psychology at work. If BB sells Frontier for peanuts, it's a blemish on his reputation as an expert money man. If he turns it around and RJET shareholders make money, then his reputation is enhanced.

One mo 'time - it isn't about airlines. It is about money. If Republic's Frontier had been the most successful airline in the world there would still have been an IPO.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-14 16:32:58]
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
his is why Silent Siegel is so laser focussed on profit - not growth.

It may be worth saying a few words about Silent Siegel.

Much of his reputation among airline people is based on his disastrous experience at US Airways, but of course, he had a life before that, especially at Continental.

Here's what the legendary CEO of Continental - Gordon Bethune - had to say about him, and others:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/09/bu...edicine.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

"But Mr. Siegel's trial by fire came at Continental, which underwent a broad restructuring after Mr. Bethune took over in 1994. Mr. Siegel helped close the airline's no-frills arm, Continental Lite, which had lost $140 million since it began. He later was president of Continental Express, the regional jet operator.

''Dave is an architect of our revitalized airline,'' Mr. Bethune said. ''You couldn't ask for a better executive in charge of scheduling. He's no slouch on the other side either, when we had to make the company profitable and reliable. He put the investment in the maintenance programs that make the company work reliably.''

When Mr. Siegel joined Avis, he brought along people he knew at Continental and Northwest. He set out to broaden Avis's customer base beyond business travelers and to raise revenue with an airline technique called yield management. ''He's a rare combination of an excellent strategic thinker with very good operating skills,'' said John Chidsey, chairman of the vehicle services division of Cendant, Avis's parent. ''He certainly helped us focus much more on the leisure business.''

As he did at Avis, Mr. Siegel has hired colleagues from previous jobs. He says he needs people who can not only deal with labor, but can also carry out his other restructuring plans, which include finding a code-share partner, increasing the use of regional jets and strengthening hubs.

When asked why they would join him at a floundering company, he said: ''I don't know. Clinical insanity?'' Then he gave what he said he believed to be the real answer -- the chance to experience the pure rush of transforming a company in a matter of months, something many executives yearn for."


A lot of people have asked me if I think he will stay at Frontier, and I don't know. He may decide the time has come to enjoy running an airline.

But - once a fix-it man, always a fix-it man? Silent Siegel himself said this, of Continental Express:

http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/ar...-express-resigns-siegel-moves.html

""My work here is largely complete," he said. "We've turned the company around."

mariner
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airliner371
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:41 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
Sorry, but BB has said it.

Executives lie a lot to everyone including employees.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:53 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 25):
Executives lie a lot to everyone including employees.

If you want to take that view, there isn't much anyone can say and debate becomes pointless.

But since, from the start of this, March 2011, the FAPA agreement, BB has laid out what is likely to happen - and I watch it happen - then I have no reason to be cynical.

I think it is offensive to accuse people of lying and officers of a publicly held corporation can charged by by the SEC if they lie - or misrepresent the truth.

It also completely ignores - as you seem to do quite a lot - the $50 million turnaround at Frontier between Q2 2011 and Q2 2012 - from $34 million loss to $14 million profit.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-14 16:55:36]
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airliner371
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:55 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
It also completely ignores

I was not making any opinion or anything by saying they lie, I was just putting that out their. I was not agreeing or disagreeing with anyone.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:59 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 27):
I was not making any opinion or anything by saying they lie, I was just putting that out their. I was not agreeing or disagreeing with anyone.

Then I have no idea why you would make that statement within this context.

mariner
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:04 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
Then I have no idea why you would make that statement within this context.

Because I would say it about anyone. Dave Barger, Richard Anderson, Jeff Simsik, all executives lie and so if someone says "___ said" then I want to remind people that people lie.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 29):
Because I would say it about anyone. Dave Barger, Richard Anderson, Jeff Simsik, all executives lie and so if someone says "___ said" then I want to remind people that people lie.

I don't follow any of those people, I have no idea if they have "lied" or not. On balance I would think it extremely unlikely. because the price is so high.

Certainly CEO's have lied in the past, and usually have paid a very high price for so doing.

There is always, of course, the difference between stated intention and what they are actually able to achieve, and a possible difference between what they actually say - and what people think they have said.

mariner
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:46 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 25):
Executives lie a lot to everyone including employees

Twenty or more years ago I would have agreed with you. For the senior leadership to skew or skirt the truth in today's environment is a one way ticket to loose creditability
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:11 am

I simply disagree with you. Republic has no options and has to say these things it means nothing.

[Edited 2012-10-14 22:12:20]
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:29 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 32):
I simply disagree with you. Republic has no options and has to say these things it means nothing.

Republic has three options, which have all been defined by BB. It has four, if you count the dissolution of Frontier.

The question then comes, why are they going through this? If, as you claim, it cannot be done, then why bother?

Certainly, TPG thinks it is worth the bother. BB thinks it is worth the bother. Silent Siegel thinks it is worth the bother.

The RJET Board thinks is worth the bother, else it would have pulled the plug.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 32):
Republic wanted a merged Frontier with two hubs and to make it a competive airline HQ in MKE so they could be a part they had a vision not just a place to throw some spare cash and a good opportunity like oaktree or Soros. For whatever reason that has totally failed and its back to Frontier.

That was then. This is now.

In about April 2011, Republic changed the strategy. The one thing they knew, in the darkest days of Q1 2011, the time of the $70 million loss, was that the mainline fleet, the Airbus fleet, at DEN, was operating profitably.

This is the basis of the whole thing and this is what led to the FAPA agreement.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 32):
Republic surely would take back the purchase and have never bought Midwest/Frontier if they could dont you think?

Probably, at least in the case of Midwest. Maybe Frontier. But - they did.

Life - and especially business - is about what is, not what might have been.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 32):
I bet they have zero options at this point so they have to make it look as good as possible and hope for an IPO down the road to get some of its cash back and reduce its ownership. No one would purchase the airline right now and no one would buy the IPO right now lets be serious. Frontier IPO would be a total failure right now. Republic has to say this and act this way. I also cant see anyone buying them or wanting to buy 30% or anything like that. It has alot to proove im afraid for people to want to invest in them.

You keep saying "right now" and I agree - because they're not doing it "right now."

Using the FAPA agreement as the template - and everything that is happening is based on that - Republic has until about 2Q 2014 to become the minority investor.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-14 23:25:02]
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RE: New Frontier #39

Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:06 pm

DGS is ground servicing F9 at SBN. As far as loads go, SBN is doing good and better these two home football weekends.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:48 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 20):
Even best case lets say frontier is continuously profitable its still unstable and vulnerable no one is gonna throw mega bucks for it will they?

I have to laugh at that statement. If Frontier is continuously profitable, the airline is more stable, and less vulnerable. And yes, investors throw mega bucks at a continuously profitable airline. Is that not what an airline is supposed to do? I would much rather invest into a Frontier that is profitable. That just makes investment sense.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:36 am

how are the GSO loads looking? any chance of seeing a GSO-DEN route if Orlando does well?
or a BOS-TTN-GSO-MCO flight? a la Eastwind?
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:51 am

Several people have asked me what I think Frontier will look like after the restructure, and I think it will be reasonably close to what we see now.

At some point the airline will stabilize, but we're not there yet. This is mostly because of the fleet reorganisation. Since the separated Frontier will be an all-Airbus airline, I assume the remaining E190's will go and since the planned A320's aren't coming in on a one-for-one basis, there could still be some downsizing. I am told there is an "assumed" arrival of 1 x A320 in January, but I don't know if that's carved in granite yet.

The departure of the remaining E190's could cause some rethinking and while Frontier seems committed to routes like OMA/MSN-DCA (although I don't think there's been a nod from the DOT yet) - would they go A319?

The other unknown is the price of oil, which, like the Kiwi dollar, is at unreasonable highs. Should it go higher again that could change things.

Otherwise, DEN will still be principal hub, perhaps slightly differently structured from what it is now. Generally, I think that if a route is still flying in Q1 2013, it is probably "safe" but there are a couple of exceptions. If Southwest does start DEN-DSM, I'd hope Frontier will get its butt off the route - it can support one carrier, I don't see that it can support two.

MDT did so well I assume will come back but it isn't scheduled yet, so I can't know for sure and BLI had good loads but I don't know what yield was like and I don't know how price sensitive it was. This was the core problem at PVU. Locals may have loved it, but if fares were a few bucks lower at SLC, guess where they flew. And - if they are tight on aircraft - TYS becomes a question mark for me.

There have been guesses here that ATL may go and that caused some hearts to flutter. I haven't heard anything about it going, but I'd love to see a "Georgia strategy" not just ATL and Southwest did fine for decades without ATL - as has JetBlue.

There are no sacred cows.

A few chums got very optimistic about the word "robust" for bookings at TTN (everybody wants to run an airline) and several thought it could function as a northeast focus city.

Yeh, well - maybe.

Robust bookings don't mean that every flight will be full, at least in the early days, and while I have high hopes for TTN, it hasn't happened yet. Nor do I know how the Nimbys would react to expanded service - they seem to be schizophrenic - yes, they want successful service - but not too much and not at certain times of the day.

The suggestion was made to me that TTN could be a way back into BOS - DEN-TTN-BOS - and again - maybe. But at least three airlines have tried TTN to Mass - two of them to BED - and none of them are still flying the route, or even still flying as branded. I'm told Eastwind had good loads back in the day, but that was such a woefully managed airline I don't know if that's enough, and anyway, things may have changed since then..

And so I do wonder if Frontier is thinking about potential (eastern) leisure destinations, not from DEN - BUF or MYR - but I don't know.

There are obviously question marks over the other new MCO routes, but I think they stand ready to nurse at least a couple of them and that's what revenue guarantees are for.

GSO is quite interesting to me, because I remembered that Continental Lite had a hublet/focus city there, and Silent Siegel was instrumental in shutting down Lite in favor of CO Express. But I guess that means he knows the city and, in a sense, he's back on familiar ground. On a light note, I'm not suggesting GSO-TTN (although it isn't a bad idea) because everyone would greet that with cries of Eastwind Redux.

Silent Siegel's most familiar ground is, of course, "the east," and this represents a big change in Frontier thinking. "The east" has considerable problems, a lot of airlines duking it out, but there are still some very good opportunities.

I know people don't like change, or are nervous of it, especially change at the level we're seeing, but I'm having a really good time, because I'm watching changes at Frontier that I've yearned for some years to see.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-16 23:56:48]
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:45 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
Otherwise, DEN will still be principal hub, perhaps slightly differently structured from what it is now. Generally, I think that if a route is still flying in Q1 2013, it is probably "safe" but there are a couple of exceptions. If Southwest does start DEN-DSM, I'd hope Frontier will get its butt off the route - it can support one carrier, I don't see that it can support two.

Are you forgetting UA? They fly DSM-DEN as well..with mainline.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:39 pm

Perhaps a sign of things to come, F9 is pulling out of TYS-MCO effective 1/6/13. It competed with G4 service to SFB.

Strange F9 couldn't compete and make this work when FL was in this market for years. If the F9 brand won't fly in TYS when the FL brand seamingly did, it begs the question might F9 experience similar results in markets that G4 & F9 compete in to Orlando such as ABE, MDT, BLI, GSO? Will certainly be fun to watch!

Scoreboard:
G4 - 1, F9 - 0

[Edited 2012-10-17 07:42:46]


ADDITIONALLY:
F9's seasonal DSM-MCO appears to not be coming back this Winter either. So...G4-2, F9-0


[Edited 2012-10-17 08:03:40]
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:20 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
Silent Siegel's most familiar ground is, of course, "the east,"

I still think a few good routes would involve PHF; PHF-DCA-PHF perhaps    as a gateway of sorts to the Tidewater area of Virgina. Maybe YX/Republic would fly it for F9

In addition to the tourism dollar the military travel dollar should be considered for no other reason than nobody else flies PHF-DCA non-stop. To connect through PHL and CLT is a huge waste of time even where US flies ORF-DCA non-stop and through CLT US wants $341.00 for ORH-DCA 21 days out.

For clarity Republic still carries the YX designator as Midwest Express in the RITA T-100 in the 2012 data tables I suspect it should be RP which may be certificate driven.

As a follow-on F9 received a supplemental or staggered GSA city pair award for connecting service between PHF-SAN. I don't recall seeing it when the awards where announced in July. they also were awarded PHF-COS via DEN. There was some uncertainty because PHF-DEN was flown less than daily.
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:31 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 38):
Are you forgetting UA? They fly DSM-DEN as well..with mainline.

Sorry, I meant LCC.

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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:43 pm

There are a couple of articles here about the New Orleans/"New Frontier Airlines" project:

Crank Flier has the best headline:

"Who the F*&@ is NewFrontier Airlines?"

And here's another in Aviation Week:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.as...e62d69-8435-4202-937c-bfcec6b31f63

"New Frontier Airlines: Questions, Answers--And More Questions"

Neither thinks the idea is very good.  

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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:58 pm

Quoting BluYonder (Reply 39):
F9 is pulling out of TYS-MCO effective 1/6/13

Are we sure this is not a seasonal reduction? seen in the OAG thread EF9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1

I read it as a reduction from 2-3 flights a week to once a week. Mouse central and the greater Orlando area does slow down some in January and February
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:18 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 43):
Are we sure this is not a seasonal reduction? seen in the OAG thread EF9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1

I read it as a reduction from 2-3 flights a week to once a week. Mouse central and the greater Orlando area does slow down some in January and February

It's toast, never comes back thru May 15th published schedule.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:19 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 1):
I understand you like F9 but why do we need this thread anymore? We should do what we do with every other airline and have a thread for a specific topic. It makes it more organized and gives each topic a common ground. I think this chain thread should be closed for good.

This is an aviation discussion forum so I"m not sure why it should be closed for good. Feel free to start your own thread on another airline if you want to? Personally i think it would be nice to have a thread on each airline (as needed) and even major airports or whole states as has been done with some threads.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 43):
Are we sure this is not a seasonal reduction? seen in the OAG thread EF9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1

I read it as a reduction from 2-3 flights a week to once a week. Mouse central and the greater Orlando area does slow down some in January and February

It does appear to be a hard end date of 1/6/13.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:43 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 43):
Are we sure this is not a seasonal reduction? seen in the OAG thread EF9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1

I think 0.1 here represents 4 days during the month, which would make sense, seeing as the first 4 or so days in Jan are the days it operates.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:55 am

If Frontier were a less volatile airline, we'd probably see less discussions about it here. But Frontier is still searching for its niche in the industry, and in a nutshell that is why these discussions continue.
 
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RE: New Frontier #39

Thu Oct 18, 2012 2:35 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 42):
There are a couple of articles here about the New Orleans/"New Frontier Airlines" project:

It seems that the city of New Orleans didn't think too much of the proposal, either:

http://www.businessreport.com/articl...SSREPORT0112/121019825/0/FRONTPAGE

"New Orleans says no to regional airline hub proposal

Baton Rouge businessman John Miller says the city of New Orleans' rejection of a proposal to create a new low-fare airline hub at Louis Armstrong International Airport isn't deterring his investor group, M7 Capital, from pushing ahead with the idea.

"Oh no, not at all," Miller says, when asked if New Orleans' most recent rejection of the idea deals a deathblow to the proposal."


It also seems that Mr. Miller hasn't been entirely honest. He gave at least the strong impression that his backers - M7 Capital - would be financing the eventual deal.

But now it seems that all M7 Capital is backing is the development of the proposal:

"Miller says M7 Capital would not be included in the group of purchasing investors, and that it would not have an executive stake in the airline after it was purchased.

"M7 Capital is only the facilitator of the developer of the business model," he explains. "M7 Capital would not be controlling the deal or have an executive role in the airline."


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RE: New Frontier #39

Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:22 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 40):
For clarity Republic still carries the YX designator as Midwest Express in the RITA T-100 in the 2012 data tables I suspect it should be RP which may be certificate driven.

Republic Airlines took the YX code when Republic Airways bought Midwest and have been using it ever since. It used to be RW but that went away within a couple months of the purchase. Don't really know why they did that but I'm sure there was a reason for it.

RP is Chautauqua's code.