FATFlyer
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Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:51 pm

Allegiant has cancelled its planned MRY-HNL before the route even starts. First flight was scheduled for November 16. Flights are already unavailable for booking at the website.
http://www.montereyherald.com/local/...-air-service-canceled-before-start

Given the cancellation is 5 weeks before the planned start date it sounds like advance sales must have been abysmal.

With the good booking levels so far on FAT-HNL and other G4 HNL routes I am surprised that MRY's demographics wouldn't support a single weekly flight.
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fat-g4
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:18 pm

Now a matter of time for a FAT-OGG
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:43 pm

Quoting fat-g4 (Reply 1):
Now a matter of time for a FAT-OGG

Can't wait.   I'm also hoping for a FAT-SJD once G4 enters Mexico.
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whatusaid
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:19 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Thread starter):
With the good booking levels so far on FAT-HNL and other G4 HNL routes I am surprised that MRY's demographics wouldn't support a single weekly flight.

MRY is too close to SFO and OAK maybe?

I'd like to know how the loads are out of FAT now. Yes, July and August were packed. Look at the seat maps now - not too busy or many people are taking a chance on where they sit...
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting WhatUsaid (Reply 3):
MRY is too close to SFO and OAK maybe?

With all of the Hawaii service out SFO, SJC and OAK, I think there's more than enough capacity. The typical vacation length for Hawaii is usually 4 to 5 days. I think 1 week is actually a little long.
 
travelin man
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:33 pm

Monterey, Carmel and environs also seem a little "fancy" in terms of disposable incomes. Not sure how the Allegiant product aligns with high income earners (and people that probably already have allegiance to UA or AA).
 
fat-g4
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:07 am

FAT-SJD would be a good route. I go to Cabo twice a year, and my friends go like 6 times a year. I hate connecting through PHX. The flight is always a 15-20 hour flight there with layovers, but you can always get back in 6 hours. It's really annoying!
 
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:26 am

Quoting travelin man (Reply 5):
Monterey, Carmel and environs also seem a little "fancy" in terms of disposable incomes. Not sure how the Allegiant product aligns with high income earners (and people that probably already have allegiance to UA or AA).

Very good point AND not exactly major population centers. I know that G4 was hoping to also shunt connecting traffic through, but still, just for O&D, MRY is a horrible market.

Furthermore, many people traveling to HI are not going to HNL. They are going to LIH or OGG.
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aloha73g
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:31 am

Alaska and Hawaiian have been selling $148.20 one ways between SJC & HNL. Not sure if that might have hurt them at MRY at all.

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dlramp4life
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:53 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 2):
once G4 enters Mexico.

Is this confirmed?
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RWA380
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:15 am

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 8):
Alaska and Hawaiian have been selling $148.20 one ways between SJC & HNL. Not sure if that might have hurt them at MRY at all.

PDX has seen $168.20 to HNL on AS, and $121.00 on HA. Guess filling up low season seats means fares lower than usual
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FATFlyer
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 2:33 am

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 9):
Is this confirmed?

G4 has been talking Mexico up more lately. They've talked for several years about flying to CUN and SJD as well as from Mexico to Vegas and other US spots. But the talk seems to be increasing since starting Hawaii and the 757s/A319s.

Jude Bricker, G4's Sr VP of Planning has given interviews recently saying they are looking closely at CUN and SJD now that they have flag carrier status.

My guess is we might see a move south next year with the A319 arrivals.
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F9Animal
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:16 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Thread starter):
With the good booking levels so far on FAT-HNL and other G4 HNL routes I am surprised that MRY's demographics wouldn't support a single weekly flight.

MRY is such a bipolar city in terms of airlines. I worked for OO in the mid 1990s, and we could not fill a 19 seat Metro to MRY from LAS. I think MRY is a popular retirement city. If so, maybe the old fogies are not enthusiastic about Hawaii? Better for G4 to learn this now, than to take a hit on it.

Has anyone gotten any cabin shots of the 757 yet? And when is G4 getting its first 319?
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hiflyeras
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:17 pm

Doesn't G4 do any route planning? I envinsion a dart board in their corporate office. They seem to go in and out of markets more often than anyone, hoping something will stick. MRY is such an easy drive to SJC where you have many options for travel to Hawaii, especially on AS.
 
N62NA
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:08 pm

This is disappointing. Would have been great to have 757 service and such a long route too out of MRY.
 
PHX787
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:04 pm

This seems to be a common occurrence for G4- cancel a route before it even begins because people aren't buying tickets
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FATFlyer
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:19 pm

I've posted this list before.

Out of the cities announced by Allegiant for Hawaii service (except for AZA), Monterey sends only about 2,000 fewer annual visitors to Hawaii than EUG and 5,000 fewer than SCK.

We'll see how G4 does at those other two competing with Hawaii flights at PDX and SMF which are similar distances to Monterey to SJC.

(ranking by number of MSA residents to Hawaii in 2011):
25. SPOKANE - 19,733
29. STOCKTON-LODI - 18,162
31. FRESNO - 17,798
32. SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA-LOMPOC - 17,470
33. BOISE CITY - 17,346
37. BELLINGHAM - 15,656
38. EUGENE-SPRINGFIELD - 15,375
47. MONTEREY-SALINAS - 13,107
http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.or...thly-visitors/State%20by%20MSA.xls
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airliner371
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:22 pm

[please delete this post]

[Edited 2012-10-13 12:25:56]
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:51 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 16):
47. MONTEREY-SALINAS - 13,107

So 13,000 per year divided by 52 weeks is 250 people per week. Run two flights per week and carry EVERY SINGLE PERSON going to Hawaii from MRY and you've got 125 people per flight. Seems like a no-brainer that this would be a flop. Duh.
 
B595
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:25 pm

MRY has regular long flights to Hawaii and elsewhere... it's just that they're on fractional and private aircraft (e.g. last Monday 08 Oct, Challenger 604 N637TF routed PHKO-MRY-HPN).

Monterey Bay Pebble-Beach Pacific Grove Carmel have so much wealth it's staggering. IMHO there's so much that a lot of the people that would otherwise fly the airlines can afford to fly private operators. Or they fly first-class out of SJC/SFO/OAK.

Anyway, it's good to see a disciplined operator pull the plug on something if the numbers don't add up. It must have been a very recent decision, because it looked to me like Allegiant had already brought airstairs for the 757 to MRY.
 
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:45 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 11):
G4 has been talking Mexico up more lately. They've talked for several years about flying to CUN and SJD as well as from Mexico to Vegas and other US spots. But the talk seems to be increasing since starting Hawaii and the 757s/A319s.

Many of G4's airports don't have FIS facilities and/or US Customs. And some can't even get them: I know that SBN wanted to include one in their recent terminal redevelopment to accomodate G4, but dropped the plans. FWA just finished up their master plan, and wants to include a FIS facility in the second phase; unlike SBN, FWA has Customs for cargo.

If customs preclearance isn't a possibility at CUN or SJD in the near future, I could see G4 starting with airports like RFD and LAN that already have FIS facilities. I know that G4 doesn't do connections, but they may have to do one-stop flights from some cities that would clear Customs at the likes of LAS or SFB while waiting for preclearance in Mexico or more FIS facilities at US stations.

Could someone make a list of G4 stations with FIS facilities?
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 18):
So 13,000 per year divided by 52 weeks is 250 people per week. Run two flights per week and carry EVERY SINGLE PERSON going to Hawaii from MRY and you've got 125 people per flight. Seems like a no-brainer that this would be a flop. Duh.

MRY-HNL was going to be once per week, the same schedule most of the other HNL routes will see on a regular basis. So their plan appears to be to capture most of the existing market at those cities with weekly nonstop service plus stimulate additional traffic.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 20):
Many of G4's airports don't have FIS facilities and/or US Customs.

Exactly, so either they stick to those airports with FIS or flights have to be operated with a stop for Customs.

Allegiant has also talked in the past about service to NAS which already has preclearance (but they haven't mentioned that much recently like they have with Mexico). If the PUJ preclearance ever opens they would probably look at that too since it has been mentioned by G4 in the past too.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 20):
Could someone make a list of G4 stations with FIS facilities?

Good idea, I had been thinking about that myself. Maybe we can just crowdsource it.

In the west off the top of my head would be FAT and PSP plus the larger LAS, SAN, OAK, LAX. Not many of the smaller western cities have a FIS. I would not expect G4 Mexico flights at LAX but Vegas has no flights to SJD or CUN.

But AZA and a couple of others in the west are currently studying the addition of a FIS to pursue international flights by G4.

Besides the mentioned RFD and LAN, I can also quickly think of FIS located at GSP, ILM, BGR, and PHF. What others? Weren't MLI and ABE recently discussing constructing FIS?
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F9Animal
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:17 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 18):
So 13,000 per year divided by 52 weeks is 250 people per week. Run two flights per week and carry EVERY SINGLE PERSON going to Hawaii from MRY and you've got 125 people per flight. Seems like a no-brainer that this would be a flop. Duh.

The number is flawed for several reasons. Many will drive from MRY to other airports for the cost savings and not having to deal with connections. I think G4 was hopeful that the numbers would be good, seeing it being the only nonstop flight offered. Whatever the case, it is sad that it did not work out. Like I said earlier, it is a tough market. G4 will find a way to make the 757s and Hawaii work.
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FWAERJ
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:13 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 21):
Weren't MLI and ABE recently discussing constructing FIS?

PIA, too. And as I said earlier, FWA plans to build an FIS facility as part of a forthcoming terminal remodel (which is in their 2012 master plan).

GYY has also expressed interest in the past in an FIS facility, and was close to building one so VB could enter the Chicago market. (They later briefly served MDW.) Not sure what happened to those plans, though I wouldn't be surprised to see both an FIS and longer G4 routes like LAS and AZA at GYY after the runway extension is complete soon.

[Edited 2012-10-14 15:16:50]
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 13):
Doesn't G4 do any route planning? I envinsion a dart board in their corporate office. They seem to go in and out of markets more often than anyone,

Allegiant hater   ummmm thats a different airline your talking about dont stick that on them.

I dont think thats true or valid for Allegiant anyway . Back when Hawaii was first announced i said they would pull out of the least successful they have limited planes and only want profitable routes they have no network to offer or any reason to fly anything but the most profitable routes on the most profitable days. Allegiant wants to try many places and see where they work the best. They have a unique product. It wasnt two random cities it was a strategy to see if they could pull Bay area travelers down there or if the local market was large enough for once weekly service. Allegiant wont fly routes that bomb or give them too much time to develop. Its part of the strategy to pull out quickly if not succeful but it clearly wasnt two random cities. This probably wont be the last city Allegiant pulls out of or they start either they want to maximize profits

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 8):
Alaska and Hawaiian have been selling $148.20 one ways between SJC & HNL. Not sure if that might have hurt them at MRY at all.

I am sure that was a large part of the problem clearly the service was trying to be chased out and i think MRY once weekly just wasnt worth it. I dont think they will be as quick to retreat from other airlines pressure on LAS or on LAX if they start it MRY just isnt worth fighting that
 
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:07 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 18):
So 13,000 per year divided by 52 weeks is 250 people per week. Run two flights per week and carry EVERY SINGLE PERSON going to Hawaii from MRY and you've got 125 people per flight. Seems like a no-brainer that this would be a flop. Duh.

You fail to recognize market stimulation. I bet many G4 markets basically did not even exist until G4 entered them. By offering service to place like Vegas from many small towns essentially G4 stimulated demand that barely existed on paper before.

Same things work for Southwest. SWA has been know to stimulate markets as much as 4x historic demand once they enter them.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 21):
PSP

PSP is a point-of-entry call out station for GA traffic Monday - Friday 0800-1700. They don't have normal FIS capability.

Agents respond with minimum 4hours notice from the Los Angeles port district office HQ in Long Beach.
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FATFlyer
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:39 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 25):
PSP is a point-of-entry call out station for GA traffic Monday - Friday 0800-1700. They don't have normal FIS capability.

Thanks for the correction, I had some info twisted in my mind when I typed that. If I remember right PSP was talking 4 or so years ago about possibly building a two-gate international terminal and FIS.

[Edited 2012-10-14 16:40:18]
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hiflyeras
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:35 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 24):
This probably wont be the last city Allegiant pulls out of or they start either they want to maximize profits

Problem being, cry wolf in a city and I think it'd be hard to go back and try again from that same city. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
 
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mariner
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:40 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 27):
Problem being, cry wolf in a city and I think it'd be hard to go back and try again from that same city. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

How are they fooling anyone?

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hiflyeras
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:55 am

Was looking at the EUG-HNL seat maps at their website....horrible advance sales. Wouldn't be suprised to see this chopped next.
 
cschleic
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Thu Oct 18, 2012 11:24 pm

Quoting B595 (Reply 19):
Monterey Bay Pebble-Beach Pacific Grove Carmel have so much wealth it's staggering. IMHO there's so much that a lot of the people that would otherwise fly the airlines can afford to fly private operators. Or they fly first-class out of SJC/SFO/OAK.

Not necessarily. Like any tourist and retirement area with a large population in service industries, the demographics can be bi-modal, with less than usual in the middle. There's also a military population on the peninsula, although that shrank when Ft. Ord closed. Yes, there are concentrations of wealthy people there, but also concentrations of people who don't fit that demographic. Just because it's expensive to live there doesn't mean everyone can afford a palatial house, or to buy one at all. A lot of bizjet traffic is people/corporate types coming to the area, not residents going out. And locals buy coach tickets as much as anyone else, even when mainline flights operated with first and coach. I know, I grew up there.
 
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:36 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
Was looking at the EUG-HNL seat maps at their website....horrible advance sales. Wouldn't be surprised to see this chopped next

This actually surprises me, since EUG is G4's number one station in Oregon. I thought for sure EUG-HNL would be a winner at two days a week. It makes me wonder how GEG or BOI is doing. Maybe with fares less than $300 bucks from PDX, there may be many who will make the 2 1/2 hour drive to PDX and fly AS or HA to the Islands.

Part of the detraction to G4 for me is, they only fly to HNL (with exception of BLI-OGG) and unless you are only going to O'ahu that is great. But if you are going to any other island, you can go non-stop from PDX to that outer island, X-MKK or LNY for all you nit pickers....

That means you pay a separate fare $150.00+ r/t per person, then you schlep your bags to HA, WP from G4. Overall it ends up costing just as much as if you flew a regular airline with a daily schedule.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
dlramp4life
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:07 pm

This makes me wonder about AZA-HNL. You got daily service from HA and US, how can G4 make it work against the other two airlines serving hawaii from PHX...
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FATFlyer
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:08 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
Was looking at the EUG-HNL seat maps at their website....horrible advance sales. Wouldn't be suprised to see this chopped next.
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
This actually surprises me, since EUG is G4's number one station in Oregon. I thought for sure EUG-HNL would be a winner at two days a week. It makes me wonder how GEG or BOI is doing. Maybe with fares less than $300 bucks from PDX, there may be many who will make the 2 1/2 hour drive to PDX and fly AS or HA to the Islands.

We can't rely on seat maps only to estimate Allegiant's ticket sales like we might with other airlines. Allegiant charges an additional fee for reserving preassigned seats. Price sensitive leisure travellers will wait until check-in to be assigned a seat for no charge.
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PHX787
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:16 pm

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 32):
This makes me wonder about AZA-HNL. You got daily service from HA and US, how can G4 make it work against the other two airlines serving hawaii from PHX...

Hawaii seems to be a big market for the phoenix area. I think the people over in Chandler and Gilbert are gonna like this route
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B595
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:21 pm

Quoting cschleic (Reply 30):

We're both basically taIking about the same thing; I was just pointing out that the strongly bimodal wealth distribution works against Allegiant, because there are an unusually large number of people in the uber-wealthy part of the bimodal distribution and those people don't fit Allegiant's demographics. Hence, while there might be (just guessing) 150k potential travelers in the Montery Bay area, only perhaps 50-60% of these travelers will consider flying Allegiant. So, the market for Allegiant isn't anywhere near what the population numbers might suggest at first glance.

As you say, there are still a good number of lower-income residents in the service industry and military; Are there enough of these people to support a weekly 757 flight to Hawaii? Allegiant's cancellation of the flight seems to speak for itself.
 
whatusaid
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:10 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 33):
Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
Was looking at the EUG-HNL seat maps at their website....horrible advance sales. Wouldn't be suprised to see this chopped next.
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
This actually surprises me, since EUG is G4's number one station in Oregon. I thought for sure EUG-HNL would be a winner at two days a week. It makes me wonder how GEG or BOI is doing. Maybe with fares less than $300 bucks from PDX, there may be many who will make the 2 1/2 hour drive to PDX and fly AS or HA to the Islands.

We can't rely on seat maps only to estimate Allegiant's ticket sales like we might with other airlines. Allegiant charges an additional fee for reserving preassigned seats. Price sensitive leisure travellers will wait until check-in to be assigned a seat for no charge.

As FATFlyer said, you cannot use a seat map to judge advance sales. In July when the FAT-HNL load factor was about 97%, there were always 50 to 70 unassigned seats the day prior to the flight.
 
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mariner
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:41 pm

Quoting whatusaid (Reply 36):
As FATFlyer said, you cannot use a seat map to judge advance sales. In July when the FAT-HNL load factor was about 97%, there were always 50 to 70 unassigned seats the day prior to the flight.


  

I don't think any airline, at least among the LCC's, shows accurate seat maps.

It would be too easy for the competition to gauge the level of business, if only the load factors. I know of one airline that sometimes deliberately skews the online seat maps.

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dlramp4life
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:04 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 34):
Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 32):
This makes me wonder about AZA-HNL. You got daily service from HA and US, how can G4 make it work against the other two airlines serving hawaii from PHX...

Hawaii seems to be a big market for the phoenix area. I think the people over in Chandler and Gilbert are gonna like this route

But will they like the no frills service and paying for food and drinks?
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mariner
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:35 pm

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 38):

But will they like the no frills service and paying for food and drinks?

Wouldn't anyone flying out of AZA be used to that or expect it? The three airlines that use the airport all do it.

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GentFromAlaska
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Thread starter):
I am surprised that MRY's demographics wouldn't support a single weekly flight.

They could be marketed as golf flights.
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PHX787
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:27 am

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 38):
But will they like the no frills service and paying for food and drinks?
Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
Wouldn't anyone flying out of AZA be used to that or expect it? The three airlines that use the airport all do it.

Precisely. People who fly out of AZA are going to become used to the no-frills thing. Someone told me that G4's 757 service is going to offer "more," but what that "more" is, I have no idea.
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FWAERJ
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:56 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 41):
Someone told me that G4's 757 service is going to offer "more," but what that "more" is, I have no idea.

Probably the streaming IFE system that Row44 is installing on the G4 757 fleet.
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RWA380
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:03 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 33):
We can't rely on seat maps only to estimate Allegiant's ticket sales like we might with other airlines. Allegiant charges an additional fee for reserving preassigned seats. Price sensitive leisure travellers will wait until check-in to be assigned a seat for no charge.

Good point, ala NK, I guess when you are buying tickets on an ULCC you do wait until 24 hour check in or gate to get a seat. Thanks FATFlyer for reminding me of that. I have always said EUG would work, it was the one city I started guessing with, when G4 started announcing their Hawaiian intentions.
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:15 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 42):

This is news to me...
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PHX787
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:25 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 42):
Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 44):

I think i remember seeing it in a previous thread a few months back
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RE: Allegiant Cancels MRY-HNL

Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:29 am

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain