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enilria
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OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:26 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3P FLL-AUA NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.7 JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7

AA DFW-GRR MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3
AA LGA-YYZ DEC 9>8

AC BOS-YOW NOV 1.6>1.7
AC BOS-YUL NOV 6>5
AC MIA-YYZ NOV 2>1.8
AC PHX-YYZ NOV 2.0>1.8

AF BOS-CDG MAY 1.4>1.0

AM SAT-MEX NOV 3>4

AS PDX-GEG MAR 7>8 APR 7>8 MAY 7>8 JUN 7>8
AS SEA-BOI JUN 8>9
Interesting. Hard to believe DEN is doing well with so many airlines...
*AS SEA-DEN MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AS SEA-OAK APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
AS SEA-PHX MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6

AV JFK-BOG JAN 1.9>2 FEB 1.9>2 MAR 1.9>2 APR 1.8>2 MAY 1.9>2 JUN 1.9>2
AV MCO-BOG DEC 0.6>0.8 JAN 0.6>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0 MAR 0.6>1.0 APR 0.6>1.0 MAY 0.5>1.0 JUN 0.6>1.0
AV MIA-BOG DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3

Seems like more pressure on VX
B6 BOS-LAX MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3
B6 BOS-SEA JAN 0.9>0.6
B6 FLL-LAX JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2
B6 JFK-BUF MAY 8>9
B6 JFK-FLL JAN 9>10
B6 SJU-SDQ JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4

BB SJU-EIS DEC 1.5>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
BB SJU-STT NOV 4>2 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2 APR 4>2 MAY 4>2
BB STT-SJU NOV 3>1.8 DEC 3>1.8 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>2 MAY 4>2
BB STT-STX NOV 4>2 DEC 4>3 JAN 3>1.0 FEB 3>1.0 MAR 3>1.0 APR 3>1.0 MAY 3>1.0

BW JFK-POS JAN 4>3

CM LAX-PTY NOV 1.2>2 DEC 1.2>3 JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3 MAR 1.7>3 APR 1.7>3 MAY 1.7>3 JUN 1.7>3

DL ATL-AMS APR 2>3
Delayed start
*DL ATL-MXP APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.5
DL ATL-PLS JUN 1.1>0.9
DL CVG-LAS JAN 1.0>0.7
DL DTW-CVG JAN 5>6
DL DTW-FCO MAY 0.3>0.5
DL IND-MSP JAN 5>6
More delayed starts; Europe must be pretty bad
*DL JFK-AGP MAY 0.3>0 JUN 1.0>0.8
*DL JFK-ARN MAY 0.3>0
*DL JFK-ATH APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.5
DL JFK-BUF MAR 4>3
DL JFK-CLE JAN 1.8>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0
DL JFK-CLT JAN 2>1.1
*DL JFK-CPH MAY 0.3>0
*DL JFK-FCO MAY 1.3>1.0
*DL JFK-IST APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.3
DL JFK-MKE JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0
*DL JFK-PRG APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.3
*DL JFK-PSA MAY 0.3>0
*DL JFK-ZRH MAY 0.3>0
DL LGA-ATL JAN 15>14
DL LGA-BGR JAN 2.0>3
DL LGA-BOS JAN 13>12
DL LGA-BTV MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4
DL LGA-BUF JAN 7>6
DL LGA-CHS JAN 5>4
Shocker that one isn't going well. JAN only , so far...
*DL LGA-DEN JAN 3>1.1
DL LGA-MCO JAN 7>6
DL LGA-MSY JAN 4>3
DL LGA-ORD JAN 11>10 FEB 11>10
DL LGA-PBI FEB 5>4
DL LGA-RDU FEB 9>8
DL LGA-SAV JAN 3>1.1 FEB 2.0>1.5
DL LGA-TPA JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
DL LGA-YUL JAN 5>4
Wow, first AMS is gone and now JFK doesn't even work in Winter.
**DL MEM-JFK JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0
DL MIA-LGA JAN 6>5
DL MSP-PSC MAR 1.5>1.0 APR 1.6>1.0 MAY 1.6>1.0
*DL PHL-CDG APR 1.0>0
*DL PIT-CDG APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.7

EI JFK-DUB FEB 1.6>1.7

COS gets freq hacked pretty deeply
F9 COS-LAX JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.4 MAR 0.8>0.4
F9 COS-MCO JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.4>0.1 MAR 0.4>0.3
F9 COS-PHX JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
F9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1
Was this the last E145?
*F9 MKE-RHI JAN 1.7>0.2 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 0.8>0

HA HNL-ITO NOV 16>15 JAN 16>15 FEB 16>15
HA HNL-LIH JAN 18>17 FEB 18>17 MAR 18>17
HA HNL-OGG JAN 29>27 FEB 29>27 MAR 29>28
HA ITO-HNL NOV 16>15 JAN 16>15 FEB 16>15
HA LAX-OGG DEC 0>0.2
HA LIH-HNL JAN 18>17 FEB 18>17 MAR 18>17
HA OGG-HNL JAN 29>27 FEB 29>27 MAR 29>28

IB LAX-MAD NOV 0.4>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.1

K5 AHN-BNA NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7

LA JFK-SCL NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0

LH BOS-FRA APR 2>1.4
LH IAD-FRA APR 1.3>1.6
LH ORD-FRA APR 1.6>1.4
Interesting to be running less than daily in peak
*LH PHL-FRA APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7

LY JFK-TLV APR 3>2.0 MAY 2>1.9

MW HNL-JHM JUN 0>3
MW HNL-LNY JUN 0>2
MW HNL-MKK JUN 0>6
MW HNM-OGG JUN 0>2
MW JHM-HNL JUN 0>3
MW KOA-OGG JUN 0>15
MW LNY-HNL JUN 0>2
MW LNY-OGG JUN 0>1.0
MW MKK-HNL JUN 0>6
MW MKK-OGG JUN 0>6
MW OGG-HNM JUN 0>2
MW OGG-KOA JUN 0>15
MW OGG-LNY JUN 0>1.0
MW OGG-MKK JUN 0>6

SQ IAH-DME MAY 0.7>0.8 JUN 0.7>1.0

SY BOS-MSP JUN 0>1.8
SY JFK-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY LAX-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY MSP-SFO JUN 0>1.8

TJ SJU-SBH NOV 5>6 DEC 5>8 JAN 5>9 FEB 5>9 MAR 5>9 APR 5>8 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>0.9
TJ STT-SBH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0


Interesting changes in CLE. Spokes way down, Florida up for peak.
UA CLE-ALB MAR 4>3
UA CLE-BTV MAR 1.3>0.8
UA CLE-CLT MAR 3>4
UA CLE-MHT MAR 3>1.6
UA CLE-PHL MAR 5>3
UA CLE-PHX MAR 1.0>2
UA CLE-PVD MAR 4>1.6
UA CLE-RSW MAR 1.0>3
UA CLE-SEA JAN 0.2>0.1
UA CLE-TPA MAR 1.0>3
The yield was probably awful. 2014 will be interesting.
**UA DEN-DAL JAN 1.0>0.0 FEB 1.4>0 MAR 1.6>0 APR 1.6>0 MAY 1.6>0 JUN 1.8>0
UA DEN-FLL MAR 1.0>2
UA DEN-MAF MAR 2>3
UA DEN-MCO MAR 3>4
UA DEN-MFR MAR 1.7>1.0
UA DEN-PHX MAR 4>6
UA DEN-SJD MAR 0.5>0.6 APR 0.3>0.4
UA DEN-YWG JAN 2>1.9
UA EWR-ANU APR 1.4>1.3
UA EWR-AUS MAR 3>4
UA EWR-BDL JAN 4>3
UA EWR-CUN MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
UA EWR-FLL JAN 7>8 MAR 7>8
UA EWR-MCO MAR 9>10
UA EWR-POP MAR 1.0>1.2
UA EWR-PTY APR 1.3>1.1
UA EWR-RSW MAR 3>5
UA EWR-SDQ APR 1.2>1.0
UA EWR-SJU JAN 1.4>1.1
UA EWR-YHZ JAN 4>3
UA EWR-YYZ JAN 10>9 FEB 10>9
UA GUM-NRT FEB 3>4
UA IAD-AUS MAR 2>3
UA IAD-BGM MAR 4>3
UA IAD-BOS MAR 5>4
UA IAD-CAE MAR 4>3
UA IAD-CLE MAR 5>6
UA IAD-DAY MAR 4>3
UA IAD-GCM MAR 0.2>0.3
UA IAD-TYS MAR 2.0>3
UA IAH-CLL JAN 4>3
UA IAH-CUN APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
UA IAH-LAS JAN 8>9
UA IAH-MCI MAR 9>8
UA IAH-MCO MAR 6>7
UA IAH-MKE JAN 4>3
UA IAH-PHX MAR 5>6
UA IAH-PVR JUN 1.3>1.9
UA IAH-SHV JAN 4>5
UA IAH-YEG JAN 2>1.9
UA LAX-HNL FEB 5>4
UA LAX-RNO JAN 1.1>2
UA LAX-SAN JAN 13>12 FEB 13>12
UA LAX-SJD APR 1.0>1.1
UA ORD-CMX JUN 2>3
UA ORD-LIR MAR 0.5>0.6
UA ORD-MKE JAN 8>9 FEB 8>9 MAR 8>9 APR 8>9 MAY 8>9 JUN 8>9
UA ORD-PUJ MAR 0.3>0.5
UA ORD-PVR MAR 0.7>1.0 APR 0.5>0.7
UA ORD-RAP MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0.7
UA ORD-SJD MAR 0.3>0.6 APR 0.3>0.6
UA ORD-YEG JAN 2>1.9
UA SFO-CLE MAR 1.9>1.0
UA SFO-DEN MAR 9>10
UA SFO-IAD MAR 11>10
UA SFO-SNA JAN 8>7
UA SFO-STL JAN 0.9>0.6

US DCA-YOW DEC 1.7>1.4 JAN 1.6>1.4

More VX transcon cuts except BOS
VX BOS-LAX APR 2>3
VX IAD-SFO JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
VX JFK-LAX FEB 6>5 MAR 6>5 APR 6>5
VX LAS-SFO APR 8>7
VX SFO-PVR JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.2 APR 0.4>0.1
VX SFO-SJD DEC 1.0>1.4 JAN 0.8>0.9

WP KOA-OGG DEC 1.6>1.5 JAN 1.5>1.4 FEB 1.6>1.4 MAR 1.6>1.5 APR 1.5>1.4 MAY 1.6>1.4 JUN 1.6>1.5
WP LIH-OGG DEC 1.6>1.5 JAN 1.5>1.4 FEB 1.6>1.4 MAR 1.6>1.5 APR 1.5>1.4 MAY 1.6>1.4 JUN 1.6>1.5
WP OGG-HNL DEC 1.6>1.5 JAN 1.5>1.4 FEB 1.6>1.4 MAR 1.6>1.5 APR 1.5>1.4 MAY 1.6>1.4 JUN 1.6>1.5
WP OGG-KOA DEC 1.6>1.5 JAN 1.5>1.4 FEB 1.6>1.4 MAR 1.6>1.5 APR 1.5>1.4 MAY 1.6>1.4 JUN 1.6>1.5
XL MIA-UIO NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0
 
steex
Posts: 1319
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:45 am

RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:33 pm

Thanks, as always, for your updates!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Wow, first AMS is gone and now JFK doesn't even work in Winter.
**DL MEM-JFK JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0

This isn't particular surprising to me. DL previously tried MEM-JFK once daily only to pull it later, then decided to reinstate it (presumably at least in part to compensate for MEM-AMS reductions). I suspect MEM's relatively modest European demand is largely concentrated to cities that can be reached one-stop via ATL (if not also MSP and DTW), so I don't think JFK brings that much to the table. This would be especially true in winter given the seasonality of many of the JFK-Europe flights.
 
apodino
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:39 pm

So last week we find VX cutting BOS, now they are adding the routes bacK? Can they make up their mind?

Also B6 adding frequency on LAX-BOS is interesting. UA is down to one a day on the route, and this is also going to put pressure on AA, as this has been one of their bread and butter routes for many years.

I notice an AF cut in BOS-CDG, but no addition from DL. I thought the plan was for DL to add a freq to this pair, unless that was in a different revision.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

*F9 MKE-RHI JAN 1.7>0.2 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 0.8>0

It was, but this is an EAS route that was taken over by SkyWest I believe operating on the DL certificate, or Great Lakes. Either way since the EAS is with a new carrier, this route can be cut.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL PHL-CDG APR 1.0>0
*DL PIT-CDG APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.7

PHL I believe could be another AF shift. Again the DL and AF schedule changes seem to not be in sync. PIT is ending the subsidies I believe, so I am eager to see if this route even lasts past summer.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*LH PHL-FRA APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7

USAirways is at two daily on the same city pair, so LH is not going to have trouble getting pax to PHL via codeshares.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

**UA DEN-DAL JAN 1.0>0.0 FEB 1.4>0 MAR 1.6>0 APR 1.6>0 MAY 1.6>0 JUN 1.8>0

The funny thing is that American complained that if WA went away then pax would flock to DAL because thats where they all want to fly out of. But it doesn't seem like that because many airlines have tried and failed to make DAL work with RJ's. Could they work with mainline planes? Maybe. But I suspect that post wright, DAL is going to be to the Metroplex what MDW is to Chicago.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 1):
I don't think JFK brings that much to the table.

Certainly not in the Winter since there's no JFK Europe flying outside of the Summer 
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:05 pm

Thanks E again for the updates!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS SEA-PHX MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6
A summer addition, huh? Almost flew this route coming home from Japan, but got bumped because of a late arrival. Wonder what it's like on board, it must be doing well.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
More delayed starts; Europe must be pretty bad

Understatement of the year. Europe is really aching still.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**DL MEM-JFK JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0
Quoting steex (Reply 1):
DL previously tried MEM-JFK once daily only to pull it later, then decided to reinstate it (presumably at least in part to compensate for MEM-AMS reductions).

I am shocked though, isn't this a hub-to-(small) hub flight? What's the service like between MEM and LGA?

I'm smelling a B6 addition here in a few months   

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL PHL-CDG APR 1.0>0
*DL PIT-CDG APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.7
Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
PHL I believe could be another AF shift. Again the DL and AF schedule changes seem to not be in sync. PIT is ending the subsidies I believe, so I am eager to see if this route even lasts past summer.

PIT's thing is weird there. Cut in April and added in May.

For PHL, Wiki says it's seasonal. AF doesn't operate this route yet.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA GUM-NRT FEB 3>4

So 4 daily to Guam, huh? Jeez, the Japanese sure do love our insular areas   
What are these routes typically flown on? 737ETOPS? 767s?
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
neveragain
Posts: 466
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:59 pm

RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
I notice an AF cut in BOS-CDG, but no addition from DL. I thought the plan was for DL to add a freq to this pair, unless that was in a different revision.

I don't believe these flights have been uploaded yet.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
USAirways is at two daily on the same city pair, so LH is not going to have trouble getting pax to PHL via codeshares.

Everyone, after me, US-space-Airways!! Just like Delta Air Lines. And Emirates Airline.
 
yellowtail
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SQ IAH-DME MAY 0.7>0.8 JUN 0.7>1.0

With the cost of fuel this has to be a good sign...
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
codc10
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:32 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
So 4 daily to Guam, huh? Jeez, the Japanese sure do love our insular areas

GUM-NRT is a massive market. At least two of the frequencies are 348-seat 777s, the others are 738s.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
More delayed starts; Europe must be pretty bad

It is. After just being taken over by a European company, we just joined our first all-sites broadcast from the CEO who basically said Europe economy sucks and it will continue to suck for at least the next decade and it will not be our main focus so look for more involvement in the US and ROW.. so, uhmmm, yeah..
Aiming High and going far..
 
neveragain
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 8):
it will not be our main focus so look for more involvement in the US and ROW.. so, uhmmm, yeah..

I remember seeing that acronym for the first time and thinking, "I hope our business plan isn't predicated on strong demand from Roswell."
 
steex
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:40 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I am shocked though, isn't this a hub-to-(small) hub flight? What's the service like between MEM and LGA?

I'm smelling a B6 addition here in a few months

It is hub-to-hub, but that's no guarantee that it will work if the flows don't make sense and the local traffic is better served on the also hub-to-hub MEM-LGA flights. It's not much different than AA only flying ORD-JFK and DFW-JFK each once daily (and being unable to make STL-JFK work when they were still more active at STL), and that's with a much larger hubs and O&D bases on the non-JFK end.

I would be very surprised if B6 opened MEM ahead of many, many bigger holes in their route map in the center of the country.

Edit: Just realized I didn't answer your question regarding MEM-LGA. The route is served 3x daily with DL mainline equipment. It's currently 1x M88, 2x 319 and switches to 1x 320, 2x 319 on the next schedule. I believe UA is at 3x ERJ on MEM-EWR.

[Edited 2012-10-17 10:58:50]
 
iowaman
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
COS gets freq hacked pretty deeply
F9 COS-LAX JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.4 MAR 0.8>0.4
F9 COS-MCO JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.4>0.1 MAR 0.4>0.3
F9 COS-PHX JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
F9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1

Interesting to see the COS pulldown. Probably a struggle between loads and yield management during low travel times of the year.

Orlando-Knoxville starts this Saturday, Oct. 20th, and officially ends January 6th, 2013. G4 has the market tied up with 4-5x weekly service in Jan/Feb and daily service in March (from SFB rather than MCO of course).

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MW HNL-JHM JUN 0>3
MW HNL-LNY JUN 0>2
MW HNL-MKK JUN 0>6
MW HNM-OGG JUN 0>2
MW JHM-HNL JUN 0>3
MW KOA-OGG JUN 0>15
MW LNY-HNL JUN 0>2
MW LNY-OGG JUN 0>1.0
MW MKK-HNL JUN 0>6
MW MKK-OGG JUN 0>6
MW OGG-HNM JUN 0>2
MW OGG-KOA JUN 0>15
MW OGG-LNY JUN 0>1.0
MW OGG-MKK JUN 0>6


The amount of inter-Hawaii flying is already staggering. Wow.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SY BOS-MSP JUN 0>1.8
SY JFK-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY LAX-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY MSP-SFO JUN 0>1.8

Normal summer ramp ups.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
But I suspect that post wright, DAL is going to be to the Metroplex what MDW is to Chicago.

I suspect so too. Will be cool to see WN non-stops on DAL-LAS/PHX/LAX/MDW/BWI/MCO (all of which are pretty much a given IMO).
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Interesting. Hard to believe DEN is doing well with so many airlines...

Except Frontier....
Seaholm Maples are #1!
 
drerx7
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:02 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SQ IAH-DME MAY 0.7>0.8 JUN 0.7>1.0

Back to daily
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
iowaman
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:07 pm

Quoting iowaman (Reply 11):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):SY BOS-MSP JUN 0>1.8
SY JFK-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY LAX-MSP JUN 0>1.9
SY MSP-SFO JUN 0>1.8
Normal summer ramp ups.

Actually after checking those all appear to be year-around, not sure why it's showing as 0 flights:

MSP-SFO, LAX, and JFK is daily except Saturday this Spring, ramping up by June
MSP-BOS is 4x weekly Jan-Mar, and ramps up to daily by the middle of April
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting iowaman (Reply 14):

Actually after checking those all appear to be year-around, not sure why it's showing as 0 flights:

June not offered for sale until now (since the report is comparing this week to last week)?
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:22 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
USAirways is at two daily on the same city pair, so LH is not going to have trouble getting pax to PHL via codeshares.

Still, you'd like to see LH do well enough on their own to fly it daily during the summer. I believe LH has a hard time getting premium paxs, which seems to be a problem that plagues PHL.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
For PHL, Wiki says it's seasonal. AF doesn't operate this route yet.
AF operated this for a while. Then after ATI with DL they handed it over to a seasonal DL 752 which has been running the past few summers. Who knows where it is headed, with the other seasonal adjustments maybe DL is running this for an even shorter summer period.

[Edited 2012-10-17 11:25:43]
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:30 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 12):
Except Frontier....

Hmmm?

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/ne...ines-gives-a-lift-to.html?page=all

"Frontier Airlines gives a lift to owner Republic's profit

Frontier Airlines parent company reported a dramatic turnaround over the past year Wednesday, led largely by increasing profits for its Denver-hubbed airline."


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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:10 pm

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 13):
Back to daily

Either very healthy up front yields or cargo below or both. Just checked with a couple of folks I know who fly it regularly and they tell me....F & J seats are very hard to get close in..always gobs of Y space. to them anecdotally, More than 60% of the plane now goes on to SIN.
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:21 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 1):
Thanks, as always, for your updates!

 
Quoting steex (Reply 1):
This isn't particular surprising to me. DL previously tried MEM-JFK once daily only to pull it later, then decided to reinstate it (presumably at least in part to compensate for MEM-AMS reductions).

It's surprising because they cut MEM-JFK to help keep MEM-AMS going (pushing all the Europe traffic onto AMS). Now they aren't flying either in Winter.   Last year they were flying AMS non-stop in Winter and now JFK doesn't even work.  
Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
It was, but this is an EAS route that was taken over by SkyWest I believe operating on the DL certificate, or Great Lakes. Either way since the EAS is with a new carrier, this route can be cut.

But am I correct that was the last F9 E145?

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
PIT is ending the subsidies I believe, so I am eager to see if this route even lasts past summer.

Correct. If the Europe economy is as bad as it appears then it seems doubtful, but that isn't PIT's fault.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
USAirways is at two daily on the same city pair, so LH is not going to have trouble getting pax to PHL via codeshares.

I'm just shocked to see LH fly a route like that 5/week in June.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
But it doesn't seem like that because many airlines have tried and failed to make DAL work with RJ's.

I wonder if this bodes poorly for DAL-ATL on DL. I suspect it means that is also awful.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):

Thanks E again for the updates!

 
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I am shocked though, isn't this a hub-to-(small) hub flight? What's the service like between MEM and LGA?

There's no local traffic of consequence. It's all connecting to Europe...or isn't since the flight is going away.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
I'm smelling a B6 addition here in a few months  

Very doubtful

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):
PIT's thing is weird there. Cut in April and added in May.

Not added in May. They just delayed the start date so it operates less in April (0 to be exact) and less in May.

Quoting steex (Reply 10):
It is hub-to-hub, but that's no guarantee that it will work if the flows don't make sense and the local traffic is better served on the also hub-to-hub MEM-LGA flights.

I think the AMS flight won't come back this Summer for MEM. I'd be shocked. If it does, it will be 3/week. (BTW, I said that months and months ago.)

Quoting steex (Reply 10):
I would be very surprised if B6 opened MEM ahead of many, many bigger holes in their route map in the center of the country.

Agreed. Market is too small.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 11):
Probably a struggle between loads and yield management during low travel times of the year.

Is March low season for Colorado? Not in my book.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 11):
Orlando-Knoxville starts this Saturday, Oct. 20th, and officially ends January 6th, 2013.

So, that has also failed? It doesn't fly in March for what is clearly peak season?

Quoting iowaman (Reply 14):
Actually after checking those all appear to be year-around, not sure why it's showing as 0 flights:

It's probably just them extending their schedule. That's covered above in the FAQ:
"WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?"

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 15):
June not offered for sale until now (since the report is comparing this week to last week)?

Exactly

Quoting mariner (Reply 17):
"Frontier Airlines gives a lift to owner Republic's profit
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 12):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Interesting. Hard to believe DEN is doing well with so many airlines...

Except Frontier....

My point was that if AS was adding service on SEA-DEN, they aren't doing it because it is making money. They must be doing it to pressure F9 or possibly WN...more likely F9.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
I suspect that post wright, DAL is going to be to the Metroplex what MDW is to Chicago.

and HOU is to Houston
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
COS gets freq hacked pretty deeply
F9 COS-LAX JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.4 MAR 0.8>0.4
F9 COS-MCO JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.4>0.1 MAR 0.4>0.3
F9 COS-PHX JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
F9 MCO-TYS JAN 0.3>0.1
Was this the last E145?
*F9 MKE-RHI JAN 1.7>0.2 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 0.8>0

Of course it got hacked. F9 sidestepped a landmine by avoiding the merger with Westpac. Westpac failed because they couldn't get out of COS fast enough. If there was no market for them then, why would F9 think there was magically now? Republic has really spun them down the toilet bowl, just when they were on the right track financially coming out of bankruptcy.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:46 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
My point was that if AS was adding service on SEA-DEN, they aren't doing it because it is making money. They must be doing it to pressure F9 or possibly WN...more likely F9.

I disagree. AS has shown over the last few years incredible restraint when it comes to routes and capacity. If they don't believe they can get their goal of 10% ROIC, they don't seem to be interested in flying it. Adding additional capacity on the market just to scare away F9 or WN is only going to decrease their yield, further reducing their ROIC goal. Why would they suddenly depart from that restraint they have shown so well as of late? The last time I can think of that AS through a bunch of capacity at a problem was when VX started SEA-SFO/LAX back in 2008 IIRC.

I also don't understand why AS would suddenly decide to throw extra capacity at the route to fight F9 or WN, especially since both have been flying that route for at least 4/5 years. Yes F9 has been struggling a bit as of late, but reports are that they are recovering, and the timing is all wrong now - they should have been going after F9 when they were struggling more.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Quoting apodino (Reply 2):It was, but this is an EAS route that was taken over by SkyWest I believe operating on the DL certificate, or Great Lakes. Either way since the EAS is with a new carrier, this route can be cut.
But am I correct that was the last F9 E145?

That is the last one AFAIK unless something has changed.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Quoting iowaman (Reply 11):Probably a struggle between loads and yield management during low travel times of the year.
Is March low season for Colorado? Not in my book.

Not so fast. You're grouping COS with all other airports in Colorado, and COS does not receive the volume ski traffic many other Colorado airports do.

Based on enplaned and deplaned passengers, Jan-April is the slowest time of the year for COS. Even months like May & October were busier (I pulled 2010 data to avoid the F9 skewing it).

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 23):
and capacity. If they don't believe they can get their goal of 10% ROIC, they don't seem to be interested in flying it. Adding additional capacity on the market just to scare away F9 or WN is only going to decrease their yield, further reducing their ROIC goal. Why would they suddenly depart from that restraint they have shown so well as of late?

I'd be curious if routes like BLI-LAS competing with 1-4x daily flights on G4 meets the 10% ROIC. It certainly might - but I do question it.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:48 pm

Quoting cosyr (Reply 21):
Of course it got hacked. F9 sidestepped a landmine by avoiding the merger with Westpac. Westpac failed because they couldn't get out of COS fast enough.

Well, I'm not quite that negative, but I agree that their focus city of the moment strategy has no point.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 23):
I disagree. AS has shown over the last few years incredible restraint when it comes to routes and capacity. If they don't believe they can get their goal of 10% ROIC

There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 24):
That is the last one AFAIK unless something has changed.

Interesting historical note.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 24):
Not so fast. You're grouping COS with all other airports in Colorado, and COS does not receive the volume ski traffic many other Colorado airports do.

March is a good month almost anywhere. They don't have schools in COS?

Quoting iowaman (Reply 24):
I'd be curious if routes like BLI-LAS competing with 1-4x daily flights on G4 meets the 10% ROIC. It certainly might - but I do question it.

Agreed
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
Quoting iowaman (Reply 24):Not so fast. You're grouping COS with all other airports in Colorado, and COS does not receive the volume ski traffic many other Colorado airports do.
March is a good month almost anywhere. They don't have schools in COS?

Regardless of what is generating traffic in COS during March, it is not a stellar month like it is at many other mountain airports in Colorado. In the original post I stated F9 could be struggling with loads and yields during the March time-frame, but you stated March was not low season in Colorado in your book. Statistically that is incorrect for Colorado Springs, Colorado airport, regardless of how many schools are there.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL PIT-CDG APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.7

PIT-CDG never operated daily last year.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
PIT is ending the subsidies I believe, so I am eager to see if this route even lasts past summer.
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):

Correct. If the Europe economy is as bad as it appears then it seems doubtful, but that isn't PIT's fault.

The subsidies have ended long ago. In fact the route has now operated as long without any subsidy as it has with them.

What's happening here is DL is resuming seasonal service later in the year compared to last year (as with PHL). At the same time it will be increased to 5x weekly earlier in the year compared to last year. Just some tweaking of the schedules compared to last year.

Incidentally, while Delta's other transatlantic schedule seems to be finalized, the PIT-CDG flight is still "defaulted" to daily service starting May 11 according to Delta.com, so this may be a matter of how good advanced booking look.
FLYi
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:19 am

Quoting iowaman (Reply 11):
Interesting to see the COS pulldown. Probably a struggle between loads and yield management during low travel times of the year.

And - perhaps - something to do with the knock-on effect of 10 x E190's and the A318's leaving the fleet.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-17 17:20:32]
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:38 am

Quoting PITrules (Reply 27):

PITrules, you beat me to it...

It still irks me that the local business market still wants direct service to FRA. Why doesn't the region try to promote business growth among France-based companies or companies that do a lot of business in and around Paris, therefore, boosting O&D traffic between PIT and CDG? That would be more logical, no?
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:42 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
My point was that if AS was adding service on SEA-DEN, they aren't doing it because it is making money. They must be doing it to pressure F9 or possibly WN...more likely F9.

I'm not sure why you quoted me because I was responding to another poster.

But if you're right that no one is money on the route - and you may be - then I would hope that Frontier would be the sensible airline and reduce frequency.

I doubt it would be seen as sensible here, of course.

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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:46 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

I wouldn't come to a conclusion based on the number of airlines flying on a route.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 2:37 am

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 7):
GUM-NRT is a massive market. At least two of the frequencies are 348-seat 777s, the others are 738s.

That is true. My buddy told me he's flown NRT-GUM about 15 times over the years for holidays.

Quoting steex (Reply 10):
Edit: Just realized I didn't answer your question regarding MEM-LGA. The route is served 3x daily with DL mainline equipment. It's currently 1x M88, 2x 319 and switches to 1x 320, 2x 319 on the next schedule. I believe UA is at 3x ERJ on MEM-EWR.

Thanks for the information!  

Hmm I guess that covers the NYC O%D market.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Not added in May. They just delayed the start date so it operates less in April (0 to be exact) and less in May.

Oh, ok, thanks for that.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

I wouldn't come to a conclusion based on the number of airlines flying on a route.

SEA is a pretty decent market for anyone in the mountain west. I believe WN, AS, and US all fly to SEA from PHX and it's a popular route.

For reasons, however, I don't know. All i know is that it's pretty popular.
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:33 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 30):
But if you're right that no one is money on the route - and you may be - then I would hope that Frontier would be the sensible airline and reduce frequency.

I doubt it would be seen as sensible here, of course.

In the micro yes, but the carrier that always blinks will be forced out of all its markets pretty quickly. Showing weakness is dangerous.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

I wouldn't come to a conclusion based on the number of airlines flying on a route.
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 32):
Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

I wouldn't come to a conclusion based on the number of airlines flying on a route.

SEA is a pretty decent market for anyone in the mountain west. I believe WN, AS, and US all fly to SEA from PHX and it's a popular route.

For reasons, however, I don't know. All i know is that it's pretty popular.

In January there are 14 RTs. Enough said.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 26):
but you stated March was not low season in Colorado in your book. Statistically that is incorrect for Colorado Springs, Colorado airport, regardless of how many schools are there.

For COS Traffic:
In 2008 MAR was was 14% ahead of JAN in traffic and 16% ahead of FEB.
In 2009 MAR was was 19% ahead of JAN in traffic and 22% ahead of FEB.
In 2010 MAR was was 15% ahead of JAN in traffic and 26% ahead of FEB.
In 2011 MAR was was 17% ahead of JAN in traffic and 33% ahead of FEB.
In 2012 MAR was was 15% ahead of JAN in traffic and 17% ahead of FEB.
From DOT T100

So, I'm using statistics. What are you using?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:51 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 33):
In the micro yes, but the carrier that always blinks will be forced out of all its markets pretty quickly. Showing weakness is dangerous.

An airline should fly where it can make money, and if the route is no over-served that it isn't making money I can't think of good reasons to fly it - unless it is making an ultimately profitable contribution to network.

"Showing weakness" - as you call it - enabled Frontier to effect a near $50 million turnaround from Q2 2011 to Q2 2012 - from a $32.6 million loss to a $14 million profit.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/republ...ings-reports-second-232000924.html

"For the quarter ended June 30, 2012, Frontier posted pre-tax income of $14.1 million compared to a pre-tax loss of $32.6 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2011."

If that is "showing weakness" I expect to see a very great deal more of it from Frontier.

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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:45 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.
Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
I wouldn't come to a conclusion based on the number of airlines flying on a route.

  

It is very difficult to make a blanket statement like that based on the evidence you have provided, which is simply the number of operators currently flying the route. There are many routes worldwide with four operators (LHR-JFK is but one example), some of which in the aggregate are surely profitable. Whether DEN-SEA is profitable for each operator must depend on a number of factors...and market competition from other operators is but one of those factors.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33):

In January there are 14 RTs. Enough said.


Umm, no. Still not an indicator of anything absent any statistics about the size of the local and behind-SEA / beyond-DEN transfer markets. Of course there is also the cost structure of the operators, pricing elasticity of the demand, etc etc.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 32):
SEA is a pretty decent market for anyone in the mountain west. I believe WN, AS, and US all fly to SEA from PHX and it's a popular route.

When did WN start flying this route nonstop?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 11:49 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
There are 4 airlines flying DEN-SEA. There is no way it is profitable.

Hmmmmmm....???

Load factor is around 90% between these two points. This are 3/12 stats.

Now of course l/f isn't everything, so let's look at fares. Couldn't go back and see fares then, but used 11/13/12 for DEN-SEA, and 11/20/12 for return SEA-DEN. So we have lowest non-stop round trip fares (taxes included) found online at:

F9 - $208
AS - $294
WN - $438
UA - $534

Some 1025 miles between DEN-SEA. Pax are paying anywhere from about 20 to 53 cents per mile for this trip.

Also, a good amount of cargo between these two points as well.


 
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:30 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 34):
An airline should fly where it can make money, and if the route is no over-served that it isn't making money I can't think of good reasons to fly it - unless it is making an ultimately profitable contribution to network.

"Showing weakness" - as you call it - enabled Frontier to effect a near $50 million turnaround from Q2 2011 to Q2 2012 - from a $32.6 million loss to a $14 million profit.

As you know, that turnaround is clearly tied to eliminating the regional jet flying that Republic dumped on Frontier in what I called "a used car lot fleet plan" nearly two years ago. If eliminating those RJs has not contributed to F9 profitability, why is Republic withdrawing even the E190s from F9?

My opinion is, fight for what is worth fighting for. Don't fight for things that have little or no future opportunity for profitability. If you fight for nothing, you retain nothing and there is a direct correlation between performance and how long a carrier has been in a market...so you can't just bounce in and out in competitive reaction.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 35):
It is very difficult to make a blanket statement like that based on the evidence you have provided, which is simply the number of operators currently flying the route. There are many routes worldwide with four operators (LHR-JFK is but one example), some of which in the aggregate are surely profitable. Whether DEN-SEA is profitable for each operator must depend on a number of factors...and market competition from other operators is but one of those factors.
Quoting neveragain (Reply 35):
Umm, no. Still not an indicator of anything absent any statistics about the size of the local and behind-SEA / beyond-DEN transfer markets. Of course there is also the cost structure of the operators, pricing elasticity of the demand, etc etc.
Quoting point2point (Reply 36):
Couldn't go back and see fares then, but used 11/13/12 for DEN-SEA, and 11/20/12 for return SEA-DEN. So we have lowest non-stop round trip fares (taxes included) found online at:

F9 - $208
AS - $294
WN - $438
UA - $534

Don't know where that data comes from? Published fares? They mean nothing. The DOT tracks average realized fares and they are publicly available at bts.gov. The average realized fare for AS on DEN-SEA in 1Q 2012 was $123 ow/$246 rt.

Block time: 2.7 hours ow
Average aircraft size: 737-800
Fuel burn per hour: 910 (1Q Form 41)
Average Seats: 157
1Q DEN-SEA LF for AS: 88%
Current fuel price: $3.25
Fuel Cost per Passenger: 910*2.7*$3.25=$7985/(.88*157)=$58
% of fare for fuel: $58/$123=47%

1Q System Results for AS
Ticketed Revenue $0.864 billion
Fuel Expense: $0.306 billion
Fuel %: 35%
1Q Profit/Loss for AS: -$66 million

So, the airline as a whole achieved a loss with fuel equal to 35% of ticketed revenue. DEN-SEA has 42% of revenue going to fuel. Coupled with the overall loss for the quarter, that implies a loss on just the local market and connecting revenue almost always reduces performance additionally because revenue is divided over multiple flights. The route is only 55% local. BTW, rather than simply disagree with my conclusions, I challenge you to post a more detailed financial analysis as your rebuttal if you have one...
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:31 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
Well, I'm not quite that negative, but I agree that their focus city of the moment strategy has no point.

I would imagine this had to be a consideration of DOT in determining the four beyond-perimeter DCA exemptions earlier this year as well. While I can't claim to know their exact thought process, the lack of recent track record for F9 at COS and the potential for the touted connectivity to disappear given the unknown COS route performance was unique to F9's application.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 37):
So, the airline as a whole achieved a loss with fuel equal to 35% of ticketed revenue. DEN-SEA has 42% of revenue going to fuel. Coupled with the overall loss for the quarter, that implies a loss on just the local market and connecting revenue almost always reduces performance additionally because revenue is divided over multiple flights. The route is only 55% local. BTW, rather than simply disagree with my conclusions, I challenge you to post a more detailed financial analysis as your rebuttal if you have one...

I don't disagree with your conclusion about the profitability of the SEA-DEN market at current service levels. My point, or at least the point I attempted to articulate, is that the profitability was not explicitly tied to the fact that there are four airlines flying the route or 14 daily frequencies. Rather, the fare (impacted by supply/demand relationships) and operating cost equation has made the route unprofitable, among other smaller factors.

Your recent post explains why you arrived at that conclusion, thanks.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:26 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 38):
While I can't claim to know their exact thought process, the lack of recent track record for F9 at COS and the potential for the touted connectivity to disappear given the unknown COS route performance was unique to F9's application.

I don't think DOT trusts Republic with any slots at this point. Hopefully after the separation that will change...if that ever happens.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 39):
I don't disagree with your conclusion about the profitability of the SEA-DEN market at current service levels. My point, or at least the point I attempted to articulate, is that the profitability was not explicitly tied to the fact that there are four airlines flying the route or 14 daily frequencies.
Quoting neveragain (Reply 39):
Your recent post explains why you arrived at that conclusion, thanks.

I agree that it is not a 1:1 correlation between 4 airlines and 14 RTs and unprofitability in the lowest season of the year, BUT it's a pretty high correlation. Frankly, anywhere F9 and WN are fighting, it's not too great financially.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
COS gets freq hacked pretty deeply:
F9 COS-LAX JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.4 MAR 0.8>0.4
F9 COS-MCO JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.4>0.1 MAR 0.4>0.3
F9 COS-PHX JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7

As several people discuss these redux to the COS "focus" operation during the winter months, I happily note that, as of now anyway, the COS-SAN service seems to be holding up fine. I felt that there should be sufficient traffic in the market to support nonstop service and 4x weekly, even during the winter, seems to be working. I assume military traffic has something to do with it.

I remain interested in what happens in the Spring and Summer when (I assume) the SEA/PDX routes will resume; will SAN continue, perhaps with even increased frequency?

bb
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 40):
As several people discuss these redux to the COS "focus" operation during the winter months, I happily note that, as of now anyway, the COS-SAN service seems to be holding up fine.

That is a good sign. PHX is also a Winter-strong market and got cut, so good for SAN.
 
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mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 36):
As you know, that turnaround is clearly tied to eliminating the regional jet flying that Republic dumped on Frontier in what I called "a used car lot fleet plan" nearly two years ago.

And also eliminating high profile but unprofitable routes - "showing weakness" as you call it.

MKE-LGA (among many others) with 60% winter load factor - on both Frontier and Airtan - wasn't making money. Neither airline made money in Q1 2011, whatever the aircraft type.

All thw arguments you are making ere about DEN-SEA can be applied to a number of others, yet you say it would "show weakness" for an airline to reduce frequency.

It's like being back in the bad ol' days when Rono Dutta was President of United and (in)famously said "market share trumps profitability."

Look where that led United. And where is Rono Dutta?

Nothing trumps profitability - and if "showing weakness" is a way to achieve, then it should be done.

mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:45 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 40):
As several people discuss these redux to the COS "focus" operation during the winter months, I happily note that, as of now anyway, the COS-SAN service seems to be holding up fine.

Fingers crossed for it, SANFan.

I am just startled that anyone would think Frontier should fly the summer schedule in deepest winter.

mariner
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:55 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 42):
MKE-LGA (among many others) with 60% winter load factor - on both Frontier and Airtan - wasn't making money. Neither airline made money in Q1 2011, whatever the aircraft type.

Well, you can make both cases with MKE. They started backwards and ended up with nothing. That's exactly what happens when you start shrinking. OTOH, I'm not sure anything ever made money in MKE, so I file that under "not fighting for stuff which has no future worth fighting for" which is good strategy.

Quoting mariner (Reply 42):
It's like being back in the bad ol' days when Rono Dutta was President of United and (in)famously said "market share trumps profitability."

It isn't about market share at all. That implies that having the most passengers or seats is "winning". I never said anything remotely like that. What I said is that if you show the competition that you will leave under marginally increased pressure (like one more AS flight to SEA), there is no reason for those other airlines to not systematically push you out of every route you have. There have to be things you are willing to protect, otherwise you will be left with nothing.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Well, you can make both cases with MKE.

I suppose that's something. But I would say that a couple of routes at MKE might have been worth fighting for, but each to their own.

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
It isn't about market share at all. That implies that having the most passengers or seats is "winning". I never said anything remotely like that. What I said is that if you show the competition that you will leave under marginally increased pressure (like one more AS flight to SEA), there is no reason for those other airlines to not systematically push you out of every route you have.

It is the same territory - that there are reasons other than profit for maintaining a route. I disagree.

Then again, I only have your word for it that DEN-SEA isn't making money, but you've spent some time trying to show it.

At the same time, you would decry an airline as "showing weakness" - which was Mr. Dutta's point - if it did something about that possible lack of profit.

I don't know what you want, except, perhaps to throw rocks.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-18 11:11:12]
aeternum nauta
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:02 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 1):
Thanks, as always, for your updates!

Agreed.

This amount of work, it can't be said often enough.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:04 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Well, you can make both cases with MKE.

I suppose that's something. But I would say that a couple of routes at MKE might have been worth fighting for, but each to their own.

So, you agree that it's worth fighting for something...

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
It is the same territory - that there are reasons other than profit for maintaining a route. I disagree.

You may not like it, but it's just the way things are. Black Friday exists for the same reason. You lose money selling one thing in hopes they will buy your other high priced products. Similarly, you fly to SEA in hopes that by having a well-rounded product, you can engender passenger loyalty. I fear they are abandoning the very hard fought passenger loyalty they have in DEN in favor of the Spirit philosophy of only fare. Spirit makes money, but i think you need to leverage your strengths. Spirit never had much loyalty. They had nothing to give up. F9 does. Maybe WN is just the bully in all of this and this is the only option left to them...perhaps...

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
I don't know what you want, except, perhaps to throw rocks.

I'm throwing rocks at Alaska for adding a flight in a market at a time of year that is surely unprofitable with the goal being to lose money and cause competitors to lose money. That's what I disagree with. That's offensive, not defensive.

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
Then again, I only have your word for it that DEN-SEA isn't making money, but you've spent some time trying to show it.

Prior to Memorial Day it appears it loses money. The Summer is potentially another matter. I was speaking only about AS adding a flight in poor months.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 47):
So, you agree that it's worth fighting for something...

Sure - I think survival is worth fighting for.

How it is achieved is endlessly fascinating to me, especially when it breaks the "rules" of a.net.

Unusual circumstances may require unusual solutions.

Quoting enilria (Reply 47):
You may not like it, but it's just the way things are.

As I said, look where that thinking got United.

Quoting enilria (Reply 47):
I was speaking only about AS adding a flight in poor months.

That isn't what I took issue with.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-18 12:42:47]
aeternum nauta
 
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RE: OAG Changes 10/19/2012: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/VX

Thu Oct 18, 2012 11:01 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-MKE JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0

So much for DL's "future increased service at MKE."

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