cosmofly
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Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:27 pm

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...lacement-of-biggest-747-fleet.html

BA seems to be only looking at 787-10 + 777-9X or the A350-1000 as replacements to the rest of its 747 fleet.

The 747-8i should continue to be the king of head of state VIP jet, but that may be it.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:40 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Thread starter):
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...lacement-of-biggest-747-fleet.html

BA seems to be only looking at 787-10 + 777-9X or the A350-1000 as replacements to the rest of its 747 fleet.

The 747-8i should continue to be the king of head of state VIP jet, but that may be it.

So it is over because BA isn't looking at them? Eeesh. LOL
 
jreuschl
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:41 pm

Not many orders for the A380, either. Not enough demand for either of them?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:44 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Thread starter):
BA seems to be only looking at 787-10 + 777-9X or the A350-1000 as replacements to the rest of its 747 fleet.

The VLA RFP between the 747-8 and A380-800 at BA was a "winner take all" one. Once BA selected the A380-800, the 747-8 was never going to be a part of their fleet.
 
anstar
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 2):
Not many orders for the A380, either. Not enough demand for either of them?

Well there has been more for the A380 than the 748..... How many 748 frames are ordered vs the 380??
 
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kanban
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:07 pm

I love the way people gloat over short term numbers and situations... the 747-8 is primarily a freighter, the 8i is an add on. the beauty is Boeing can go several years without producing one, and insert a build into the freighter line with only a few months notice.

Where I think this will get interesting is when all those first 50 A380's are up for sale and there are few if any takers
( though I suspect several will be stored for Haj operations) and there is no mod feasibility. The 747-8i can at least be converted for a second life, and remaining a passenger version, is an upgrade to -300/-400 operations that do not support anything bigger.
 
phxa340
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:08 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 4):
Well there has been more for the A380 than the 748..... How many 748 frames are ordered vs the 380??


111 for all variants of the 747- 8

262 for the A380

Neither is selling like hot cakes but then again neither was designed to sell 1000s , they have long lives ahead of them
 
woodsboy
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:11 pm

So, Im sure someone can dig this factoid out....: What was the forecast pre A380 for the VLA market over the next 2 decades? As with all forecasts for the number of any particular size of airliner that wil be required in the next ten or twenty years, it was way off the mark. Right now the forecast for the 100 seat NB airliner market seems ridiculous given the very small numbers of new airliners being ordered in that segment. Id say the same is true for the VLA market. As we have seen orders for the A380 and the 748 have not materialized in numbers required for two side by side products that fill a very niche segment of the airliner market. The A380 beat the 748 to market by YEARS and thus has cemented it as the choice for that size aircraft. Im not saying anything about which one of these aircraft are better, it just doesnt matter. The 748 was probably too late to the game, we will see how it plays out. At this point in time the sweet spot is with the 737 and A320 segment and the 777/787/A350 segment and not much above or below that.
 
DoubleDelta
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:11 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 4):
Well there has been more for the A380 than the 748..... How many 748 frames are ordered vs the 380??

You can try to spin "orders" and "popularity" anyway you want, in an attempt to boost your argument for either side. At the end of the day, NEITHER of the current VLA's are selling well.

The A380 has been on-sale for over a decade, yet it has only secured a dismal 260 orders, give or take. That's nothing to gloat about any way you slice it. And of those 260+/- orders, the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.

The 747-8 family, has only been on offer since 2005... closer to 2006. Since then it has only secured a disappointing 106 orders, the overwhelming majority for the freighter model. Most of any potential 747-8i customers were already committed to the A380. Not many will be able to justify both the A380 and 748i, as LH and KE will be doing. That's just the reality. There isn't enough room in the market for both. Even if there was a direct Boeing equivalent for the A380, it would still be like the situation that Douglas and Lochkeed faced with the DC-10 and L-1011. There was only room for one, and only one aircraft won out by a large margin.
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WarpSpeed
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:12 pm

Boeing Sr. Management noted on today's earnings call that it will likely secure additional 747-8F & I orders/commitments before year-end. With that said, the F & I variants were mentioned in the same breath, so consider the comment well hedged. The freighter model seems to have the most potential being the sole player in the VLA freighter market at present. It is difficult to foresee a broad business case for the -8i with super efficient 400+ passenger 777-9X looming on the horizon. Then again, even if we are counting down to "game over," markets are dynamic and the 747-8i could earn some "extended play."
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flightsimer
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:17 pm

257 firm for the A380 (not including the 5 from kingfisher which are 99% not going to be delivered).
Vs
111 firm for the 747-8 with another 15-25 still pending government approval.

So right now the A380 is at about 2:1. However, Airbus had a nearly six year head start in launch time over the 747-8 (early 2000 vs Nov. 2005).

Since the time of the 747-8 launch the net orders have favored the 747-8, but overall orders are at a nearly 3:2 towards the A380. Once transaero firms their four along with the 15 from Hong Kong/Hainan, both will be near a 1:1 split.

A380 144 sold, 39 canceled, net 105
Vs
747-8 111 net

Also, we are still waiting on quite a few carriers to order still, which could possibly go 747 over the A380. So It's not quite over yet for the -8I, but it is unfortunately inching closer and closer to that point. At least the -8F should be able to continue for a while yet.
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BMI727
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:21 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Thread starter):
Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Probably, but the freighters will soldier on well enough until Boeing comes out with a replacement. If somebody wants a 747-8I they can get one, and if they don't Boeing won't be in too much trouble.

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8):
You can try to spin "orders" and "popularity" anyway you want, in an attempt to boost your argument for either side. At the end of the day, NEITHER of the current VLA's are selling well.

It's a naturally smaller market. That's like blasting Lamborghini for selling fewer cars than Toyota.

The argument isn't really that Boeing should have built an all new plane, it's that they should have done something else entirely and left the 77W as the largest plane in their lineup.
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scbriml
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:25 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
the 747-8 is primarily a freighter, the 8i is an add on.

Which is not how Boeing envisioned it.
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DoubleDelta
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 11):
The argument isn't really that Boeing should have built an all new plane, it's that they should have done something else entirely and left the 77W as the largest plane in their lineup.

Respectfully, I have not really seen many people on A.net present that argument. But, I must ask, what exactly should have Boeing built? The Sonic Cruiser? No one wanted it and the 787 was born from that. The 77W was still practically brand new at the time the 747-8 was launched, so looking past the 77W wasn't even an option. A replacement 737 wasn't in the cards for a multitude of reasons... mainly due to it selling so well, and there not being an advancement in engine technology to allow for a new narrowbody.
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
the 747-8 is primarily a freighter, the 8i is an add on.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
Which is not how Boeing envisioned it.

Historically, the passenger model of the 747 handily outsold the passenger model so it was logical for Boeing to assume this would be the case with the 747-8.

If Boeing in 2005 had felt the 747-8 would primarily sell as a freighter and not as a passenger plane, they never would have launched it because the market would not have justified the investment.

If anything, the strong launch demand for the freighter might very well have tricked Boeing into thinking their was strong demand for the passenger plane.

[Edited 2012-10-24 13:34:15]
 
cosmofly
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:51 pm

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 10):
257 firm for the A380 (not including the 5 from kingfisher which are 99% not going to be delivered).
Vs
111 firm for the 747-8 with another 15-25 still pending government approval.

If you take away the freighters and the VIPs, the order ratio is 256 : 32 .

Even for China and Korea orders, it may be tied to the fact that they both want 747-8 AF1s.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
The VLA RFP between the 747-8 and A380-800 at BA was a "winner take all" one.

That was before 777-9X talk and no one expected A380s to replace all 747s.
 
skipness1E
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
Where I think this will get interesting is when all those first 50 A380's

That's a long time away, Boeing needs to build B747-8s today.

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8):
, the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.

Oh come on, "eccentric airline"? Are you serious? Have you been to Dubai? That's just condescending nonsense.

The A380 isn't going to do massively well but the B747-8i is going nowhere. It's the A340NG of the B747 range. OK, that's a shame but that's the sad reality. No one wants a four engined airliner if they can possibly avoid it.
 
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ER757
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8):
the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.

And most of Boeing's 748-i order book is from one airline. In both cases, it warrants a "so what?" If said airlines take delivery and pay for them, why should either OEM care bout what percentage of the order book that airline represents? A sale is a sale, the check gets deposited and the money's in the bank. Doesn't matter whose name is on the check.

To answer the OP's question - I don't think it's game over as Boeing never intended to sell shedloads of the 748 (more than they have to be sure, but not in the numbers previous versions sold). I think there are a handful of orders left out there, although most airlines have gone (or will go) up to the A380 or down to the 77W or 351. The 747 occupies a pretty small niche, but it's there if an airline wants it.
 
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:35 pm

Given that a large number of 744's are still in service, it stands to reason that both the 388 and 748 will gain orders as the 744 fleets are wound down (as will the 77W and 359). It may never be a flood, but likely more than a trickle.
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:43 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 15):
That was before 777-9X talk and no one expected A380s to replace all 747s.

Still doesn't change the fact that once BA chose the A380-800 they formally closed the door on the 747-8. So whatever replaces the remainder of their 747-400 fleet, it was not going to be a 747-8.
 
upsmd11
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:44 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 15):
If you take away the freighters and the VIPs, the order ratio is 256 : 32 .

Even for China and Korea orders, it may be tied to the fact that they both want 747-8 AF1s.

Well, if A had been able to produce a decent freight and on-time maybe this would be different as well.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:46 pm

Quoting upsmd11 (Reply 20):
Well, if A had been able to produce a decent freight and on-time maybe this would be different as well.

Airbus would have 20 orders for the A380-800F (10 from FX and 10 from 5X) and we'd be arguing how badly the 747-8F was spanking it in sales.  
 
2175301
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:47 pm

I would not write off the 8I yet; and I believe it will get a few more orders in the next couple of years. But the 8F will get a steady supply of orders likely for decades.

One card not yet played in this game that could swing a lot of people towards the 8I instead of the A380 is the potential length of time to do a D check on an A380. A lot of the current production time for an A380 is due to outfitting - the vast majority of which has to be removed and reinstalled during a D check. There has been speculation about the potential D check length on the A380 production thread. Will an A380 D check take 2 months - or 6 or more months? The answer is unknown at this point. How it turns out will affect the future of A380 sales one way or the other. The 8I could benefit substantially if an A380 D check is on the long end of the possible answers.

Have a great day,
 
bluesky73
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:48 pm

Sadly price of oil, high running costs and profit is finishing off four engined passenger aircraft and in next 10 years they will join the history books along with concorde and triple holers.
As much as the new A35X, 77X Cseries etc are exciting to us lovers of airliners it is a still a shame the next generation are becoming various sized twin engined jets. Even A32X are getting winglets, sorry sharklets.

Fortunately freighters will keep variety going for while yet.

I hope some airlines order the 748i purely from a selfish point of view  
 
ssteve
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:58 pm

Quoting bluesky73 (Reply 23):
Sadly price of oil, high running costs and profit is finishing off four engined passenger aircraft and in next 10 years they will join the history books along with concorde and triple holers.

How can you say that when the cost per seat mile advantage of these 4-engine jets grows with higher fuel prices? The only thing that's been definitively killed are large fleets of 50-seat jets, not 500.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:02 pm

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8):
And of those 260+/- orders, the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.

Every few weeks someone posts derogatory comments about EK, meanwhile they continue to take delivery of their orders, operate them and fill them. According to the detractors they shouldn't be here now.

back to the original subject, the quotes from BA management are some of the least commital answers I've ever read. Quite frankly they aren't worth reporting and I can't see how anyone could reach any conclusion from them, especially that the 747-8i is doomed.
Remember the last BA widebody order, we had people posting on here that they had inside knowledge and a 747-8i order was a foregone conclusion. When it comes to BA best to speculate to your hearts content, but don't pretend to be in the know. In all likelihood their source was a bloke down the pub who cleaned Willie Walsh's office who saw a model 747-8i on his desk   
 
jumpjets
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:40 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 25):
the quotes from BA management are some of the least commital answers I've ever read.

Nice and vague and pretty much the same degree of vagueness in fleet planning announcements that have periodically emanated from BA since they placed the A380/B787 order way back it seems now in the mists of time.

I do hope to see IAG come to a decision before i die, but I am not too hopeful.  
 
phxa340
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:58 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 17):
If said airlines take delivery and pay for them, why should either OEM care bout what percentage of the order book that airline represents?

Risk management. Boeing feared too much exposure to AA and ended up losing some of the 737 order to Airbus and yet folks at Boeing aren't really too concerned. If you have 40+ % of orders to be delivered to one customer , that is a HUGE risk because airlines pay only as they are delivered. If EK growth starts to stall ... watch the A380 orders start to cancel. Likewise for the Lion Air 737 order.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:59 pm

I think we may see add-on orders for the 748i from LH and KE in small numbers. In any event, I am sure the 748F will sell quite well.
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trex8
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:35 am

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 9):
Boeing Sr. Management noted on today's earnings call that it will likely secure additional 747-8F & I orders/commitments before year-end.

IIRC they have said this almost every year since the program started!
 
rwy04lga
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
Historically, the passenger model of the 747 handily outsold the passenger model

Say what?? I'm sure you meant 'outsold the freighter model'.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 16):
Have you been to Dubai?

Yes, and what a waste of time THAT was! 'Boring' is too kind a word.
Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:03 am

The topic is the 8i. It's 'game over'. The number sold is so small it means that it is hot a viable product line for people to buy into. The A380 is a success in terms of sales and taking the VLA market. In terms of financial return on the program, that's something we won't know for a few years yet. It is up to Airbus now, we will have to wait and see how well they can manage it as a long term product.
 
rj777
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:03 am

Do you think the 748 as the next AF1 is pretty much a given? Or will another Boeing be given consideration?
 
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kanban
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:37 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 32):
Do you think the 748 as the next AF1 is pretty much a given? Or will another Boeing be given consideration?

It's pretty much a given and when it happens it's worth 50 to 75 a/c sales in public relations.

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 31):
The topic is the 8i. It's 'game over'. The number sold is so small it means that it is hot a viable product line for people to buy into.

The product line extends back to RA001.... and includes derivatives..The spares business from the 747 line is big bucks even if sales are currently slow.

Now to use some people's logic used here, we should be saying that the 777 game is over because we only have 17 sales this year compared to 200 last year...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:02 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 33):
Now to use some people's logic used here, we should be saying that the 777 game is over because we only have 17 sales this year compared to 200 last year...

We'll be at 32 tomorrow when TK's order posts.  
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:11 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 33):
Now to use some people's logic used here, we should be saying that the 777 game is over because we only have 17 sales this year compared to 200 last year...

That wouldn't be my logic. My logic is the sales for the 8i are low, the order queue is short, the number in service is small, the critical mass required for it to be a success product is not there. There has been plenty of time to order it, you can get them in a short time. It ws the wrong plane at the wrong time. Not the first time this has happened to a manufacturer, it won't be the last. The 777 does not fit this sceanrio. It is a mature product, but it has a huge backlog and many of them are in service.
 
fleabyte
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:19 am

How many 747-400F last built units and 747-8F are owneed by Boeing at the moment? It seems like the last 747F that were built were white tails and in storage a long time - did Russian cargo airlines take those or UPS? and then there seem to be some Atlas Air 747-8F rejects lingering around.
 
DoubleDelta
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:23 am

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 35):

Your point is a moot one. Unlike aircraft such as the A345/A346 or A380, the 748 isn't one aircraft with one role. Even if Boeing never sells another passenger 747, they will still be successful off of the freighter derivative. By your logic, the entire 767 line is a failure because the 767-400ER was a total flop.
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Revelation
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:25 am

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 31):
The topic is the 8i. It's 'game over'. The number sold is so small it means that it is hot a viable product line for people to buy into.

That's pretty debatable. There's a large enough fleet and more than enough incentive for Boeing to support the product.

If I had an issue, it'd more be about the resale value of the -8i in its later years.
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RickNRoll
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:55 am

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 37):
Your point is a moot one. Unlike aircraft such as the A345/A346 or A380, the 748 isn't one aircraft with one role. Even if Boeing never sells another passenger 747, they will still be successful off of the freighter derivative. By your logic, the entire 767 line is a failure because the 767-400ER was a total flop.

Refer to the topic, is it game over for the 8i.
 
Newark727
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:00 am

Quoting fleabyte (Reply 36):
How many 747-400F last built units and 747-8F are owneed by Boeing at the moment? It seems like the last 747F that were built were white tails and in storage a long time - did Russian cargo airlines take those or UPS? and then there seem to be some Atlas Air 747-8F rejects lingering around.

The two last build 747-400ERFs were white tails but one has now been placed with Kalitta Air in the United States; the other remains stored AFAIK. Then there are the three Atlas Air early-build underperforming 747-8Fs. But as far as I know those are all the unsold "white tail" 747s Boeing has right now (someone correct me if I'm wrong.) There may be some others off-lease from a previous operator but that's not really the same thing I don't think.
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:43 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 22):
I would not write off the 8I yet; and I believe it will get a few more orders in the next couple of years.


That could very well happen, but Boeing is giving the 748i a hard time themselves by offering a high performing 77W and having the 777X lurking around the corner.
The preferred fleet by SQ, BA, EK and others with 77W and A380 appears to be a strong combination.
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propilot83
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:55 am

Listen folks, the Boeing 747 no matter what model airlines still fly today, has made a tremendous debut in the history of commercial aviation since 1969. When airlines and customers wanted something "BIG," they got it in 1969 when the first Boeing 747-100 came out. The Boeing 747 has a long history in the record books, you see the A380 is just a little bigger, people are not so fascinated by its size, because the 747 always dominated the "queen of the skies." The 747 has been too popular, even today seeing Lufthansa flying its new 747-8i is amazing, and what a wonder to the naked eye. I mean the airplane is awesome, its been in service since 1969, thats over 40+ years, it has a long great tradition that traces back its lineage. A380 double decker is not so surprising when it comes to size, because the 747 already was considered "BIG" since 1969. The 747 is just too famous and beautiful, awe inspiring, and breathtaking folks, it will always be the "legendary queen of the skies" for centuries to come. Its kind of like driving an old Honda accord, and all of a sudden another car company makes the same kind of design, but not like close enough you know what I mean. I believe eventually orders will pick up for the 747-8i, once the 747-400's lifespan nears its ends, I mean I hope, because I would hate to imagine or see the 747 disappear.
 
chiad
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:58 am

Quoting propilot83 (Reply 42):
I believe eventually orders will pick up for the 747-8i, once the 747-400's lifespan nears its ends

Uhm ... that would be .... right now .... going on for several years.
The B747-400 is being replaced by B777-300ER's and A380's (and actually B747-8i for Lufthansa).
And soon the A350 will be on the feast too.
Look at BA, KLM, CX, SIA and LH for starters.

The B747-400's lifespan is at its end, but orders are not picking up ... unfortunately.
 
 
baldwin471
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:59 am

Quoting propilot83 (Reply 42):

That may all be true. But like other have said, no one wants a four engined aircraft anymore (Unless it can carry as many people as the A380 can).
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:34 am

One of the reasons Airbus launched the A380, is that without it Boeing (with the 744) had a monopoly on the VLA market, and hence could make large profits to subsidise the rest of its range,

Similarly, if Boeing hadn't launched the 748i, no doubt Airbus would have been able to charge a higher price for the A380, so it has served some purpose. For example, at BA it was a big battle between the A380 and 748i, which must have driven the price down...
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:44 am

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 30):
Yes, and what a waste of time THAT was! 'Boring' is too kind a word.

.....and hot.....really really hot.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 22):
the vast majority of which has to be removed and reinstalled during a D check. There has been speculation about the potential D check length on the A380 production thread. Will an A380 D check take 2 months - or 6 or more months?

wow.....6+ months for a D check....thats a long costly visit.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 41):

That could very well happen, but Boeing is giving the 748i a hard time themselves by offering a high performing 77W and having the 777X lurking around the corner.

this.
747-8 will be mostly the F with some small orders like we have seen. I for one don't think KE is going to just roll with 5. That is a pretty small number that will come with a high cost.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 41):
The preferred fleet by SQ, BA, EK and others with 77W and A380 appears to be a strong combination.

Or what i expect to happen in the US....nothing bigger than a 77W
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:52 am

Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 13):
Respectfully, I have not really seen many people on A.net present that argument. But, I must ask, what exactly should have Boeing built? The Sonic Cruiser? No one wanted it and the 787 was born from that. The 77W was still practically brand new at the time the 747-8 was launched, so looking past the 77W wasn't even an option. A replacement 737 wasn't in the cards for a multitude of reasons... mainly due to it selling so well, and there not being an advancement in engine technology to allow for a new narrowbody.

Not building a new plane but building a better 747. The CASM difference between the 747-8i and the 77W is too small, why take a 4-engine jet if the one with 2 engines can do > 90% of the missions. Boeing could have increased the 748 performance with a new CFRP wing, for example.

That could very well happen, but Boeing is giving the 748i a hard time themselves by offering a high performing 77W and having the 777X lurking around the corner.


I'm sure a 777X will kill the 747-8i.

[Edited 2012-10-25 01:55:41]
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
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anfromme
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:03 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
I love the way people gloat over short term numbers and situations... the 747-8 is primarily a freighter, the 8i is an add on.

That's not how Boeing initially pitched it - they expected 60% pax 747-8 vs. 40% freighters and claimed the 747-8i was going to be so much more efficient than the A380.
http://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers/archive/2005/december/i_ca4.html
Since then, Boeing have kept telling us how much interest they are seeing in the pax version and how close they are to closing additional deals (as recently as July 2012), and yet, despite getting some unexpected help by A380 production delays and wing issues, their 747-8i order book only stands at 41, of which 22% are VIP jets.

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):

Where I think this will get interesting is when all those first 50 A380's are up for sale and there are few if any takers
( though I suspect several will be stored for Haj operations) and there is no mod feasibility.

Based on what do you conclude that a) there will be no interest in A380s once the first batch are up for sale by their first operators and b) there is no way of converting them to freighters should one wish to?

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
The 747-8i can at least be converted for a second life, and remaining a passenger version, is an upgrade to -300/-400 operations that do not support anything bigger.

It won't be as clear-cut as that. While the A380 may have its issues on the 2nd hand market due to its size (which not every airline and airport can handle), the 747-8i will have its own issues because of the - as it currently stands - very limited production run. If I remember correctly, LH already stated they would like to see more 747-8i orders from other operators to help the maintenance network as well as the resale value of the planes in the long run.
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columba
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RE: Is The 747-8i Game Over?

Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:09 am

I think it is sad that has decided against the 747-8I and for the 777W. TK was one of the orders I hoped for
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong

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