morrisond
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Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:11 pm

From Flight Global http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...eline-range-to-early-2020s-378115/

I guess Plan A (Rewing - Rewing profile interior - lower weight - New Engines) or Plan B (Reprofile/clean-up wing - new engines, same weight 2016/17 service entry) never happen now. Compared to 787 Structural Efficiency - a 2020's Large twin based on early 90's structure just may not be weight efficient enough.

Extending into that timeframe gives them time to do a cleansheet/new cross section/electric architecture Super Large Twin.

Here comes the 450 Seat fully composite/non-autoclave Twin 11W !
 
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Aesma
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:24 pm

Extending into that timeframe means nothing will be decided for years.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:24 pm

Your thread title is not accurate based on the article you link.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:27 pm

I'm guessing no airlines (I'm looking at you, EK) are ready to commit to launch the program yet.

With the A350-900's first flight planned for less than a year away, I'm guessing said airlines (and Boeing) are being cautious on how to proceed.

If the A350-900 sails through her flight testing and certification program, the 777X will very likely be shelved and Boeing will concentrate on Y3 and just ramp down 777 production to maintenance levels (as they did with the 747 and 767) as demand falls.

If the A350-900 encounters "unknown unknowns" that impart a significant impact to the schedule, Boeing could see another resurgence in 777-300ER orders to cover those new delays that could negate the need for the 777X or airlines could move away from the A350-1000 to the 777X as their next generation large long-haul platform and provide the order foundation to launch the program.
 
na
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:29 pm

Reality coming in, we are looking at a 2022/23 service entry. And some time still to decide wether this thing really makes sense - or a totally new plane by 2025/27 would be better.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
If the A350-900 sails through her flight testing and certification program, the 777X will very likely be shelved and Boeing will concentrate on Y3 and just ramp down 777 production to maintenance levels (as they did with the 747 and 767) as demand falls.

That is a plausible scenario. Boeing should have made up her mind already imho but they are hesitating. They seem to adapt more and more on what Airbus is doing (MAX and now B777-X) then on leading the industry. This is not bad news for the A350-XWB program as well.

Quoting na (Reply 4):
Reality coming in, we are looking at a 2022/23 service entry. And some time still to decide whether this thing really makes sense - or a totally new plane by 2025/27 would be better.

It is more realistic since Boeing has quite a lot on its plate. And gives them the chance to make an airplane which has (much?) better chances against the A350-XWB. Totally new from scratch has a lot better chance against the all new A350-XWB.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:42 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 5):
Boeing should have made up her mind already imho but they are hesitating.

While Boeing has been portrayed as being timid as of late, as a stockholder I'd be more concerned if they were committing billions of dollars - in some cases, tens of billions of dollars - on the hope that "if we build it, they will come".

Yes, they're being cautious. They have tens of billions sunk into the 787 and the 747-8 program is in a forward-loss position. They wanted to launch a new narrowbody, but the 787 c**k-ups forced them to go with a re-engine program. Sure, the MAX is selling strong and will only continue to do so, but I believe NSA would have given them a definitive edge in the narrowbody market and start winning customers from Airbus.

If airlines believe, they need to step up to the plate and order.

It's easy to bet with other people's money when you don't need to worry about any losses.  
 
CXB77L
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting morrisond (Thread starter):
Extending into that timeframe gives them time to do a cleansheet/new cross section/electric architecture Super Large Twin.

What would be the point of that? Part of the reason Boeing decided to do the 747-8 instead of an all new "VLA" is because the market isn't big enough for both Airbus and Boeing. I think if Boeing were to do an A380-sized aircraft (which is what an 11-wide frame would achieve), it would be a financial disaster, even if it manages to make the A380 obsolete (which I don't think would happen).

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 2):
Your thread title is not accurate based on the article you link.

 checkmark 

From the article:

Quote:
"We are looking at the end of the decade, beginning of the next decade, kind of [entry into service], but that's the assumption we're working with,"

He didn't say it was "definitely" delayed to the early 2020s. That's just the headline.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
the 777X will very likely be shelved and Boeing will concentrate on Y3 and just ramp down 777 production to maintenance levels (as they did with the 747 and 767) as demand falls.

... which would be a damn shame, in my view. I guess the reality is that this is a customer driven industry, and that there's no point in launching something if the customers won't buy.

That said, I don't know why EK don't just put their money where their mouth is and sign a firm order for 50 777-9Xs. They've been singing its praises for as long as the 777X has been rumoured, and want Boeing to speed things up, but yet they're not prepared to place an order for them.

Maybe Clark is telling McNerney that "if you launch it, I'll buy it", while McNerney is telling Clark, "if you buy it, I'll launch it". The old "what comes first, the order or the program?" ...

Quoting na (Reply 4):
Reality coming in, we are looking at a 2022/23 service entry. And some time still to decide wether this thing really makes sense - or a totally new plane by 2025/27 would be better.

The original EIS date was 2019. If this article is correct, then that would put the program back to 2020, not 2022/23 as you suggest. As to deciding whether the 777X makes sense, the CEO of Boeing himself issued a statement stating that the company remains "absolutely committed to the 777X". Boeing aren't deciding whether or not to launch the 777X, they're deciding on how far to take the 777X upgrades.

That's not an easy task: EK wants their 777X yesterday, and as good as it can get, regardless of cost, SUH is happy for Boeing to take their time with it but make it cost effective ....

[Edited 2012-10-26 08:52:55]
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
fun2fly
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:54 pm

I guess all of this guarantee's Boeing will be working on 787-10 launch and 737 MAX between now and 2020. Both pretty big undertakings.
 
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zeke
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:01 pm

Now the reality of all the claims of how much better the 777X has been portrayed on here is not reflected in the market confidence.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:05 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 7):
That said, I don't know why EK don't just put their money where their mouth is and sign a firm order for 50 777-9Xs.

Tim Clark did state he expected some of the 70 777-300ERs (firm plus options) he ordered last year would instead be delivered as 777Xs. However, with only 3.5 years of production backlog at the current production rate of 100 per year, even if TC exercised his options, he'd take delivery of all 70 before Boeing was ready to switch over to the 777X.

So he needs to place another 50 (or 100).  
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:11 pm

Does anyone know ballpark numbers for cost of developing the following(my cost and lifetime sales estimates in parenthesis):

777X-New metal wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched----------($6 billion, 400 units)
777X-New composite wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched---($10 billion, 600 units)
Y3----All new with 10Y wider fuselage, two models---------------------------($18 billion, 1000 units)

Keep in mind that Boeing, unlike the past, has to share future demand with Airbus in the 300+ long haul category. For reference, Boeing has sold nearly 500 long haul 772 and 900 long haul 773 so far.
 
TP313
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:21 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 11):
Does anyone know ballpark numbers for cost of developing the following(my cost and lifetime sales estimates in parenthesis):

777X-New metal wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched----------($6 billion, 400 units)
777X-New composite wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched---($10 billion, 600 units)
Y3----All new with 10Y wider fuselage, two models---------------------------($18 billion, 1000 units)

What about the cost of the following derivative:

777X-773ER wing + new wingtips, interior widening, new engines, no stretch

Could it be significantly below $5 billion?
 
BMI727
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:00 pm

Quoting morrisond (Thread starter):
Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's  

This would hopefully mean that the eventual 777X becomes an all new aircraft. The point of a derivative would be to develop something to hit the market quickly, but if they're pushed back to the early 2020s anyway, what's the point? They could have a new plane enter service in about the same timeframe.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I'm guessing no airlines (I'm looking at you, EK) are ready to commit to launch the program yet

Why would Boeing commit to them? They've already said the A350-1000 cannot do the job, so if Boeing doesn't do the 777X, what are they going to do other than just keep buying 777s?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
If the A350-900 sails through her flight testing and certification program, the 777X will very likely be shelved and Boeing will concentrate on Y3 and just ramp down 777 production to maintenance levels (as they did with the 747 and 767) as demand falls.

To me that seems like the smart thing to do. The 737 MAX and 787 will be bringing in cash and I doubt that 777 demand will fall as far as 767 demand did.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
While Boeing has been portrayed as being timid as of late,

It might be more than portrayal on the commercial side. If they aren't going to use their commitment to the MAX to jump ahead with a new widebody, they could be in a bind later on. If you kick two cans on down the road you'll eventually have to deal with them again at the same time.

Just like Boeing saying "never again" after the 777 ran way overbudget led to the 787, they may be saying the same thing after the 787. It's a smart thing to say, considering the problems, but that attitude may be manifesting itself in the desire for projects that they feel cannot go wrong.
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PHX787
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I'm guessing no airlines (I'm looking at you, EK) are ready to commit to launch the program yet.

BA and UA are probably screaming at Boeing for this, for a 744 replacement down the road. Same potentially with DL.
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zeke
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:16 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

Why would any airline buy a 777-300ER to cover a short term stop gap with an A350 delay ?
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:20 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 14):
BA and UA are probably screaming at Boeing for this, for a 744 replacement down the road. Same potentially with DL.

If rumors are correct, the 787-10 could join the A380-800 in handling those replacements. Yes, the 787-10 is smaller than the 747-400, but BA is probably the only airline that can increase frequencies at LHR (plus they have LGW).
 
atlflyer
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:25 pm

Boeing really needs to just come up with a true 777 replacement for EIS in mid-2020s.
 
astuteman
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:33 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 7):
I think if Boeing were to do an A380-sized aircraft (which is what an 11-wide frame would achieve),

As a point of order, the A380 is a comfortable 18-wide frame....  
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 13):
They've already said the A350-1000 cannot do the job

But have they really said that? And what is "the job"? They still have 20 on order and no sign of ditching them...

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 13):
The 737 MAX and 787 will be bringing in cash and I doubt that 777 demand will fall as far as 767 demand did.

I wonder if this is the 787 cash position manifesting itself. I've no doubt it will ultimately be a sensationnal success. But I get the impression that the programme will be a cash sink for some time yet - the 787-9 and -10 both need to be brought to market, and IIRC even Boeing have said the frames they've sold won't be cash positive until at least 2015.

The MAX is also demanding resources, both engineering and financial in that timeframe.

I just wonder if this is the new boss on the street exercising financial prodence, and delaying the outlay for a couple of years..

Rgds

Rgds
 
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EPA001
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:44 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
But have they really said that? And what is "the job"? They still have 20 on order and no sign of ditching them...

As far as I recall they have stated that a route DXB-LAX at MTOW is not possible with an A350-1000 as we know it today. And I believe Tim Clark have stated that without the maximum sized CFRP-wings, the B777-9X will also fall short of doing that "trick". But the overkill on capacity might hurt the performance on shorter stretches which is why the Boeing executives have not made up their mind yet.

Because the EK version will almost only work properly for EK where other customers might be more tempted to go for the A350-1000 which is most likely more efficient on shorter stretches.

[Edited 2012-10-26 10:47:58]
 
BMI727
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
But have they really said that? And what is "the job"?

Replacing the 777-300ER. They've said that the A350-1000 is basically a larger 777-200ER, which makes sense for them considering that they operate 777s with ten seats across in coach.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
But I get the impression that the programme will be a cash sink for some time yet - the 787-9 and -10 both need to be brought to market, and IIRC even Boeing have said the frames they've sold won't be cash positive until at least 2015.

The MAX is also demanding resources, both engineering and financial in that timeframe.

Both of those will taper off before a new replacement will actually have to be launched.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
I just wonder if this is the new boss on the street exercising financial prodence, and delaying the outlay for a couple of years..

...or just making sure they don't mess up.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Why would any airline buy a 777-300ER to cover a short term stop gap with an A350 delay?

Airbus announced a two-year delay to the A350-800 and A350-1000 EIS to 2017 in June of 2011.

The 777-300ER then went on to have it's best sales year ever with A350 customers like EK, SU, CX, QR, SQ, TG, EY and JJ accounting for half of the orders placed.

And yes, I know not all those airlines are (or were at the time) an A350-1000 customer, but as you have noted on many occasions, most of these contracts offer airlines the flexibility to switch models and CX themselves did so.


Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
I wonder if this is the 787 cash position manifesting itself.

Boeing just reported another set of great numbers, so they certainly have the cash and credit to move forward. But the new guy may very well be more conservative than his predecessor - and the conservative view may be one currently held by the BoD, as well.

[Edited 2012-10-26 11:05:47]
 
na
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:07 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 7):
The original EIS date was 2019. If this article is correct, then that would put the program back to 2020, not 2022/23 as you suggest.

You think that a date set by Boeing 8 (!) years before is remotely exact? Where have you been the last ten years? You´re hopelessly optimistic if you think there wont be at least two years more delay. If it will ever be built, and I see chances are getting lesser, then we´ll see a service entry not before 2022. Bet on it. But, as others said before, a complete replacement of the 777 has just become more likely.
 
cosmofly
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:20 pm

One interesting note. In the article, McNerney implied only B knows how to build a big CFRP wing.
"...We now know how to do that and I can't think of anyone else who does."

However it is hard to imagine A cannot to the same when A is already making the A350 wing.

I can think of 2 reasons that B can afford a 777X after 2020.

1. The CFRP body really does NOT have too much advantage over next gen metal.
2. The 777X will have a CFRP body.

After 2020, A380s will have dominated the VLA markets as B has no equals. Airlines will be starting replacing their current fleet with next gen A388s or even A389s, so we can expect A to double their A380 orders by then.
http://www.ausbt.com.au/supersizing-...1-000-seat-airbus-a380-due-by-2020

I would also expect A350 family, which is already at 600 order level, will be much more established and will squeeze the 777 markets. SQ's fleet planning is probably a good glimpse of what is to come.


Here is an armchair suggestion if post 2020 EIS is the goal with the CFRP wing that B claims to be able to do:

An all CFRP, body included, 80m long 777-9X, with some galley and toilets in the cargo area, could arguably take the EK 3 class configuration to 450 pax level. A twin of this size can put a lot of pressure on the 4 holer A388, leaving only the A389 with no equals. Such 777-9X will still have a lot of cargo capacity. Another good thing is that GE90-115B thrust level may be good enough so new engine risk is much mitigated.

An all CFRP 74m long 777-8X, same as the 77W in capacity, will keep the current 77W customers happy.

One wish from the armchair also: use 787 section 41 for 777X  Oops, its it an 787XWB?

Then may be all B needs from the 787 family are the -8, -9 and -10 as is.
 
BoeingVista
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

I don't often agree with the entire contents of one of your posts but +1

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
If the A350-900 sails through her flight testing and certification program, the 777X will very likely be shelved and Boeing will concentrate on Y3 and just ramp down 777 production to maintenance levels (as they did with the 747 and 767) as demand falls.

The wild card here is what if A359 sails through flight testing and Airbus decides to move up the schedule of the A351 to 2016 (moving A358 back to 2017) and increase production rates, I can't see it happening but Enders did float this as a thought bubble, this could allow the A350-1000 to chew into 777W sales for 5 years. In this case I think that Boeing would dust off the 777X to reduce risk rather than go Y3.
BV
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:08 pm

I think the 777-X is a still born now, in 2020 it will be even harder to put make up on that 30 year old frame. Better to sell as many 777s that is possible, let the 787 mature and become the cash cow and then go for the Y3. 10 years from now I guess the 787 could be the current 777 for income.
 
astuteman
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:12 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 23):
One interesting note. In the article, McNerney implied only B knows how to build a big CFRP wing.
"...We now know how to do that and I can't think of anyone else who does."

However it is hard to imagine A cannot to the same when A is already making the A350 wing.

Which is a substantially larger wingset than the 787 is endowed with of course...

I took that to be "one of those comments", like Leahy's "chinese copy"..

Quoting sweair (Reply 25):
I think the 777-X is a still born now

FWIW I trust Boeing's marketing and engineering departments not to waste the extra year or so..  

Rgds
 
tomcat
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:40 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 23):
One interesting note. In the article, McNerney implied only B knows how to build a big CFRP wing.
"...We now know how to do that and I can't think of anyone else who does."

I'd be slightly less confident than McNerney when it comes to designing and build CFRP wings: so far, Boeing commercial aircraft still has to design and build such a wing. The 787 wing and center wing box are being designed and built in Japan by MHI and FHI. Boeing only took care of the Side of Body rib, which was a great success as we all know.

In the mean time, Airbus has already produced a few A400M wings, while it's painfully completing the assy of the first A350 wings. Shorts has also just shipped the first pair of wings for the CSeries.

The know how McNerney is referring to is maybe related to Boeing's unique expertise in sourcing Japanese subsidies to lower the cost of the 787 wings:

"In Japan, the repayable portion of aircraft subsidies on the 767, 777 and now 787 go back to a fund
for investing in future programs, so in reality the Japanese government never really gets its
money back. It has been estimated that the Japanese government will be funding over $1.5
billion in subsidies to support the 787 program, consisting of 30% non-repayable grants and 70%
in repayable loans."

See page 9 of the following document:
http://www.custac.buffalo.edu/documents/UnivatBuffaloOccPaper38.pdf
 
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EPA001
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:11 pm

Quoting tomcat (Reply 27):
Boeing commercial aircraft still has to design and build such a wing.

Maybe Boeing did design the wing but it was build by FHI and MHI? Or did they design the wings with FHI and MHI? But surely Boeing must have been involved into designing the wings of the B787?

I agree with you that Airbus has more experience in that field with the A400M and now the A350 wings. Where Airbus always had a lead in applying parts made out of CFRP into its products until the B787 came along.

Quoting tomcat (Reply 27):
"In Japan, the repayable portion of aircraft subsidies on the 767, 777 and now 787 go back to a fund
for investing in future programs, so in reality the Japanese government never really gets its
money back. It has been estimated that the Japanese government will be funding over $1.5
billion in subsidies to support the 787 program, consisting of 30% non-repayable grants and 70%
in repayable loans."

Off-topic, but it's a good catch which has been debated numerous times here on A-net when WTO-verdicts were published. Airbus deliberately left this part of the B787 development financing out of the official counter-claim at the WTO against the US/Boeing where they clearly have a case. I guess legal tactics were the driver of that decision. Maybe to have something at hand in case they need it?  
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:12 pm

Quoting tomcat (Reply 27):
The 787 wing and center wing box are being designed and built in Japan by MHI and FHI.

You should see what Boeing is doing right now at their development center near Boeing field.   

The detailed design an drawing release work may have been performed by MHI and FHI, but the basic construction of how a co-cured joint comes together and the analysis that verify the wing will meet all load requirements still resides at Boeing.

The "crown jewels" of co-cured composite is this joint design and analysis and are still at Boeing. Airbus should have a comparable analysis and design process for the A350 wing.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:16 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 28):
I agree with you that Airbus has more experience in that field with the A400M and now the A350 wings.

Boeing also had experience with the B2, F-22 wing and the 777 tail. But that technology (fastened composite) was old.
The break through resides in how to predict the failure mode in the "noodle" in a co-cure composite joint. I think Boeing figured it out. Perhaps Airbus also. . .

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:24 pm

Quoting tomcat (Reply 27):
The 787 wing and center wing box are being designed and built in Japan by MHI and FHI.

Boeing still oversaw the design, as well as oversaw the processes and tools used to design the wing.

So while it was not designed solely by Boeing engineering staff, neither was it designed independently by The Heavies and then just delivered to Boeing to plug into the overall design model.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 28):
I agree with you that Airbus has more experience in that field with the A400M and now the A350 wings.

We should not forget that Boeing built the outboard portion of the B-2 stealth bomber wing, which is a composite structure. They also built the wings for the F-22, which had a significant composite component. And while it did not go into serial production, the X-32 JSF provided additional experience.

[Edited 2012-10-26 15:48:33]
 
airproxx
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 5):
That is a plausible scenario. Boeing should have made up her mind already imho but they are hesitating. They seem to adapt more and more on what Airbus is doing (MAX and now B777-X) then on leading the industry. This is not bad news for the A350-XWB program as well.

I don't kinda share you enthusiasm about the A350 program. The flip-side is, imho, that Boeing is indeed adapting more and more on what Airbus is planning, but if they postpone a little bit the launch of a brand new 777 may mean that Airbus product is, and never will be, a good performer forcing Boeing to hurry the launch of a decent competitor. The A350 is a revamped 772 in a market turning towards a 77W nextgen... The place left for a 772 replacement will obviously be a good opportunity for Airbus. But the biggest part of the market is definitely the 77W replacement. And Boeing as a lead on this.
If you can meet with triumph and disaster, and treat those two impostors just the same
 
flightsimer
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:37 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):

You mean like how all the carriers intending on replacing A330s with 787 ended up ordering more A330s as a stop gap aircraft until the 787s could arrive because they were already familiar with them?

I guess only Airbus have "such inferior aircraft" that that can continue to be purchased for short term uses even though there are better options since nobody would ever dare to do the same with the 777-300ER... Which must mean the only reason why the 777-300ER sold so many aircraft last year would be because it's such a superior aircraft over the A350-1000...

But I'm only using your logic...
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:56 pm

Quoting airproxx (Reply 32):
But the biggest part of the market is definitely the 77W replacement. And Boeing has a lead on this.

I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now, and Airbus having a good chance with the A350-1000 in the lead. But if the B777-9X will be passed over in favor of Y3 somewhere in 2022-2023, the whole set of variables will change again. But only time will tell how things will unfold. Of course we have to wait a very long time to see how this all will turn out.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:57 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
So while it was not designed solely by Boeing engineering staff

Indeed, at some point of the 787 design, there was for example a significant Spanish armada of stress analysts supporting Boeing in Everett. These Spanish guys had gained their valuable experience with Airbus so McNerney should know better that Boeing is not the only company able to design an efficient composite wing.

Back to the original subject, I believe it's wise for Boeing to postpone the development of the 777X to maximize in the short term the potential of their current products line, ie 787 (787-10) & 737MAX, while giving a chance for the 748i to sell and relying on a still supportive market for the 77W as it stands now.

On Airbus side, the Boeing decision will only delay by a few years the arrival of a competitor to the A351 but the biggest benefit I see is that the A380 is now granted to remain without competition for the next 15 years at the very least. It means that if market demand is there, Airbus could still deliver another 600 copies of the current A388 with a decent margin.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 34):
I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now, and Airbus having a good chance with the A350-1000 in the lead. But if the B777-9X will be passed over in favor of Y3 somewhere in 2022-2023, the whole set of variables will change again. But only time will tell how things will unfold. Of course we have to wait a very long time to see how this all will turn out.

Agreed, but I would add that if Boeing manages to launch a very efficient 77X, the A350 will soon become obsolete, so letting Airbus get an advance of 5 years is not a bad logic in my opinion. New aircraft technologies soon make 5-10 years designs less efficient, and the rise of oil prices justifies more and more the orders of new aircraft.
See what happened with JL ordering 787 while bankrupt, just because they knew, otherwise, they wouldn't suffer any competition against NH's 787 already ordered.
I know as an airline, you'd better get the bigger capacity + more fuel efficient aircraft, even if the capacity doesn't really match your needs. That's what's happening with the 787 program, and to a longer extend, I believe we'll see that also with a 77X against A350-1. Just my own 2c here, but as you said, only time will tell  
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:32 am

Quoting airproxx (Reply 36):
but I would add that if Boeing manages to launch a very efficient 77X, the A350 will soon become obsolete,

And if Airbus launches an very efficient A360 as successor of A330 in 2025, the 787 will soon become obsolete   .
Despite all the talk about one model from A or B killing the competitor product on A.net, I don't think either company deliberately target their products for this purpose. The large advantage 77W enjoys over A346 came as a surprise to Boeing as well.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 36):
I know as an airline, you'd better get the bigger capacity + more fuel efficient aircraft, even if the capacity doesn't really match your needs.

 
If this is true A380 would have sold better than it did.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:40 am

To me the most likely scenario going on at Boeing is that the 350-1000 is an unknown animal with some problems.

Depending upon how good the 351 ends up, Boeing can make more evidence based decisions, on where to take the 777, and possibly save billions of dollars in the process.

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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:31 am

Quoting na (Reply 4):
Reality coming in, we are looking at a 2022/23 service entry. And some time still to decide wether this thing really makes sense - or a totally new plane by 2025/27 would be better.

Whatever year they decide to bring the next offering to market, as long as the EIS is post-2020, you'd have to think they'll end up with a new-build...right? I can't think of any reason or convincing argument for waiting that long, (giving up more market share in each passing year), and then not building a brand new plane on the other side...especially if we're talking mid-2020's, when engine/wing/cfrp technology will be so advanced.

Quoting zeke (Reply 9):

Now the reality of all the claims of how much better the 777X has been portrayed on here is not reflected in the market confidence.

If you're going do your typical Boeing bashing, at least do so with a coherent sentence that we can understand....How much better than what?? Better than the 35J? I don't recall anyone saying it would be better at all, and even if they did, it's never been adopted by more than one or two outliers on here; not a widely-shared belief as you seem to imply. It *has* been stated, (accurately), that the 77X could have been at least competitive - economically - with the 35J, when operated in specific configurations, and price discounts & shorter backlog wait were considered.
And we don't know what level the "market confidence" is or how heavily it influenced this decision. EK, the biggest consumer in the market, was upset with the 77X not being brought to market sooner, is that not confidence? There are many other variables at play here too. Boeing might not want to expend the $$ until post 2020 when their 787/748 fiasco is not looming as ominously over their financials, and when more resources are freed up from current projects. Boeing might want to wait for future engine or other technological advancements post 2020.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 34):
I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now, and Airbus having a good chance with the A350-1000 in the lead. But if the B777-9X will be passed over in favor of Y3 somewhere in 2022-2023, the whole set of variables will change again. But only time will tell how things will unfold. Of course we have to wait a very long time to see how this all will turn out.

I tend to agree with you. Airbus is definitely in the preferred position, and stand to gain significant market share if they can execute the 350-1000 well and on-time. Boeing's 77X, if it had been brought to market pre-2020, may have limited the market share lost somewhat in the short-term, but I feel it would have hurt Boeing much more in that segment long term, as it would have prevented Boeing's ability to "counter-punch" back with a new product to take back the market share lost to the 350-1000. By delaying the 77X, Boeing may end up benefiting as this might force them into building the Y3 instead of the 77X, which is IMO the path that they need to take.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:50 am

IMHO this is Boeing choosing the 78J in favor of the 777x. After talking to LH and others I'm guessing they found the 78J market to be more lucrative, and didn't want to split resources. Boeing and Airbus both have very good insight into the replacement programs of all the major airlines, and I'm guessing that none of the 77W operators had plans to replace their 77Ws until later on in the decade. I'd be curious to see those numbers but I'm sure I never will.

With the 77W still selling very well, I don't think Boeing is in any hurry to offer up its replacement. Considering it'll have deliveries well into 2017 with the current order book, that alone keeps the line going assuming no new orders. If that's the case I'm sure they can find enough customers to stretch the production line until 2020, when a more clean sheet (or more than warmed over) replacement could be offered.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:09 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 38):
To me the most likely scenario going on at Boeing is that the 350-1000 is an unknown animal with some problems.

In what way is it an "unknown animal" and what "problems" does it have?   
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:01 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 11):
Does anyone know ballpark numbers for cost of developing the following(my cost and lifetime sales estimates in parenthesis):

777X-New metal wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched----------($6 billion, 400 units)
777X-New composite wing, interior widening, new engines, stretched---($10 billion, 600 units)
Y3----All new with 10Y wider fuselage, two models---------------------------($18 billion, 1000 units)

How about a 777X lite (or 77W upgrade).
Existing metal wing with enhancements, interior widening - 10 abreast, new engines, no stretch---------($2 billion (or less), 400 units)
I'm not sure about the case for a new metal wing other than the ability to use existing manufacturing processes. There is also the issue of convincing GE to produce a new engine for what may be a lower production run. The advantage would be much less risk and much faster time frame from launch to EIS. It might be outsold somewhat by the 35J but the business case is still solid due to the much lower R&D cost. It would sell cheaper than the 35J and essentially be an interim model before Y3 in the next decade. Ramp up time to high production rates and associated issues would be minimal in comparison to those of the 35J which will be subject to slot availability in its first few years.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 13):
The point of a derivative would be to develop something to hit the market quickly

Thats part of it but the main reason to develop a derivative is to leverage the existing (potentially massive) investment that was made to launch the platform in the first place and extract further value from that investment.

Quoting boilerla (Reply 40):
IMHO this is Boeing choosing the 78J in favor of the 777x. After talking to LH and others I'm guessing they found the 78J market to be more lucrative, and didn't want to split resources.

The 78J is relatively straightforward, involves little risk and development costs in comparison to the 777X and has a well defined market. Its a much easier decision than launching the 777X.


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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:20 am

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 42):
The 78J is relatively straightforward, involves little risk and development costs in comparison to the 777X and has a well defined market. Its a much easier decision than launching the 777X.

Well, yes of course. That's my point. There's still no authority to offer for the 78J yet even. The 789 assembly has barely begun. The 787 will still have engineering resources assigned to it for years.

In short, Boeing doesn't want to spend billions on a 77X right now considering it will be years before the 787 program is profitable, the market probably just isn't there to justify the cost of a 77X, and the 77W is still selling like hotcakes. No reason to put any of that in jeopardy considering the A35J is still on shaky ground as it is, and isn't exactly flying off the shelves.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:37 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 34):
I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now, and Airbus having a good chance with the A350-1000 in the lead. But if the B777-9X will be passed over in favor of Y3 somewhere in 2022-2023, the whole set of variables will change again.

I think part of the reason Boeing is hesitating is the lack of positive market feedback to the 777-8X which is proposed as the direct replacement for the 77W. The 77X as proposed is a 2 aircraft program (777-8X and 777-9X) and the market has shown little interest in the 777-8X. Furthermore, the 777-8X is somewhat undermined by its (soon to be launched) 787-10 sibling (according to Aspire). The 777-9X is more popular (particularly with EK) but has raised some concerns about being optimised for near ULH sectors (DXB-LAX) at the expense of medium haul and "conventional" long haul.

Clearly, Boeing have not yet got it right - there is no way they could launch the program given all of the above factors. It is little wonder they are taking their time to define what should be offered. This is all part of the normal process of defining a new platform - the 787 and 350 all went through a similar process (the 350 underwent massive changes for the XWB program). It doesn't happen overnight and the caution being displayed by Boeing should not be seen as a sign of any inherent or serious problems with the platform.


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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:13 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 18):
As a point of order, the A380 is a comfortable 18-wide frame....  

Touche.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):

Because the EK version will almost only work properly for EK where other customers might be more tempted to go for the A350-1000 which is most likely more efficient on shorter stretches.

I see what you're saying, and agree that DXB-LAX may be a problem for the 35J & the 779. But if they optimize it for that, does it run the risk of becoming a one trick pony? Being capable of that, as Tim Clarke wants, would give it penalties elsewhere I would think.

Quoting na (Reply 22):
You´re hopelessly optimistic if you think there wont be at least two years more delay.

Maybe. But I'd like to think they've learnt a thing or three from the 787 debacle...



One thing that's on my mind here though... The A330, specifically the 300. Since its debut, there have been steady and incremental improvements with MTOW & operational efficiencies. To the point where a 1995 build is not really comparable to something rolling out of Toulouse next week.

Is it not possible to do that with the current 77W? Likely even at best it wouldn't be equal to a 779, but could that still be a cost effective bridge to say a Y3? They'd sacrifice a good deal of sales to the 35J, no doubt, but with R&D savings, perhaps that would make a late decade launch/mid 2020's EIS a more realistic proposition for a Y3. Thoughts?...
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:23 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 45):
I see what you're saying, and agree that DXB-LAX may be a problem for the 35J & the 779. But if they optimize it for that, does it run the risk of becoming a one trick pony? Being capable of that, as Tim Clarke wants, would give it penalties elsewhere I would think.

Given the lack of success of ULH, and the relative lack of buyers for ULH, you get the impression neither B nor A are willing to put up another ULH for sale. Their sales priorities lie elsewhere.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:22 am

So the consensus seems to be more like what I suggested in the beginning of the topic. That given the projected EIS Boeing is much more likely to go New Build.

I think it is new build and one of the main drivers for that will be manufacturing cost. The 777 is very labor intensive compared to what I think will be achievable in the early 2020's - Non-autoclave composites - much more automation.

I think they will use the 777 replacement to prove out new manufacturing processes/methods/materials that they will then use on the 737 successor later in the 2020's. Much wiser to try new things on something that you make 5-10 of per month vs. something that may be well in excess of 50+ per month by then.

That makes what to do in the meantime the question as new build is probably 10 years out.

Introducing 777 Max for service 2017-2018. Basically have GE tweak the existing engines, and give a core group of engineers you can spare from other programs time to MAX out the 777 design using the existing materials build processes and tooling. Aero tweak it if you can simply and see if there is low hanging fruit in avionics and wing structure. Leave MTO and MZFW the same. Assuming a few tons taken out and 5-8% more efficient engines - maybe 2% from Aero, it would be one incredibly capable machine and it would modernize the 777F at the same time. The 77L would have stupid range, if any airline was so inclined.

That should be enough for another 300-500 frames. Until a replacement can be built.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:26 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 45):
But if they optimize it for that, does it run the risk of becoming a one trick pony? Being capable of that, as Tim Clarke wants, would give it penalties elsewhere I would think.

Clark is right to shout about what EK wants - one thing is guaranteed, if they don't ask for it, they certainly won't get it. If they ask for it they may get it or something close. It always has to be remembered that EK is quite unique in their global vision and their location at the cross-roads of the World. However, the issue for Boeing is that if they built the plane that EK wants, there's next to no other customers that want/need the same plane. Most airlines don't want to pay a premium for a plane that's more than they need.

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 46):
Their sales priorities lie elsewhere.

The problem being that sales of a niche model are unlikely to provide sufficient ROI. Boeing lucked out a little in as much as the 77L got pretty much a free ride on the back of the 77W/77F - 58 sales would not have covered the development and certification costs if it were a completely independent model.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:32 am

One thing we forget the A350-1000 no matter how good it is will never be able to fill the market on its own, if the 77W can have 40% of the market with very little investments I think Boeing will be satisfied with this. I cant see Airbus having the resources of producing 7-10 A350-1000 frames a month. That would mean no 900 models or 800 models at all.

B can make 7+ 777 frames a month if this goes down to 4 or 5 they will still make a decent return. In 2020 Airbus will not be at full A350 production and the backlog is huge still. I think the 77W is safe for another 8 years as it is and still give investors a decent return on their stock  

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