LAXintl
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Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 7:02 pm

I guess no surprise.

As part of the broader Air France-KLM, Air Berlin and Etihad agreement, AF wants Air Berlin to abandon the Oneworld grouping and instead join SkyTeam.

Story:
Air France Wants Air Berlin Alliance Change
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_10_22_2012_p0-509180.xml

=
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AWACSooner
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 7:36 pm

Good luck with this one...they've really jumped into bed with AA on the codesharing deals and are the newest member into OW...I don't know how feasible (not to mention how much it might hit them in the wallet) it will be for them to simply jump ship over to Skyteam.
 
Independence76
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 7:48 pm

Not going to happen.


BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.


However, in the midst of speculation, say AB were to leave, who else would Oneworld attempt to court in central Europe to fill the gap?
 
speedbrds
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:01 pm

Well, if they had not joined with OneWorld, I would not have been able to book an award flight using BA miles on AB.
 
neveragain
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:13 pm

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
Not going to happen.

Nah, never will.

Just like Qantas will never enter a joint venture with Emirates.

Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.

Nope, can't happen.
 
Carfield
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:19 pm

If I recall correctly, all these major alliances have specific clauses that will impose a heavy penalty if these airlines decide to bail out all the sudden, or within a period of time. Given how new AB is to OW, I doubt it will jump ship now, unless AF is willing to pay the penalty for the switch.

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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
However, in the midst of speculation, say AB were to leave, who else would Oneworld attempt to court in central Europe to fill the gap?

This question would not be asked if Malev was still in business.

Yes, I agree. AB should stay in One World. Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already. And Star has LOT, Austrian and Turkish.

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neveragain
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting Carfield (Reply 5):
Given how new AB is to OW, I doubt it will jump ship now, unless AF is willing to pay the penalty for the switch.

And if AF were making the request (as is claimed in this article), what makes you think they wouldn't be happy to? EY isn't happy with the alliance decision, either.
 
LAXintl
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:37 pm

Air Berlin is wanted as Germany is the largest travel market in Europe outside the UK.

Having AB in an alliance, gives that group a home footing in the large German market. Something quite valuable to both OW and Skyteam.
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:57 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 6):
Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already.

If you take one look at AB's destinations in Easter Europe, you will notice immediately that they are a small player in that market. Sky Team would gain the second largest German airline whose passenger numbers dwarf CSA and TAROM put together and the overlap wouldn't be as bad as you seem to expect.
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LJ
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.

One of the owners of AB (EY) doesn't have any interest in AB staying in Oneworld either (more so when one of its competitors will join in the future).

BTW Oneworld seems to be the only alliance where all big 3 Miidle Eastern airlines are in a way affiliated to. QR, because it will join oneworld, Ek, beacuse it has signed a joint venture with QF and EY because they own a stake in AB and also finance this airline to keep it running.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 6):

Yes, I agree. AB should stay in One World. Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already. And Star has LOT, Austrian and Turkish.

The same advantage of having AB in oneworld. In the end, Skyteam would get German domestic flights and as such being able to compete with Star for German corporate contracts. Moreover, it would mean it can compete with Star much better than they can do now as they also would get a mini hub in VIE.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 1):
Good luck with this one...they've really jumped into bed with AA on the codesharing deals and are the newest member into OW..

Doesn't say anything. They've also signed an extensive codeshare agreement with AF/KL and one of the owners of Ab has signed codeshare agreements with AF, KL and GA. However, it would be sad for DUS as I doubt AA will start their flight to DUS if AB were to leave oneworld.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:14 pm

Perhaps it depends on how easy it would be to switch alliances at this point.
It is what it is...
 
panamair
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:17 pm

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen.

A brand spanking new large airport is not going to change Berlin into a hugely desirable market; the problem with Berlin has been (and will be for the foreseeable future) its lack of a decent premium market. Most corporate traffic is focused elsewhere - FRA, DUS, MUC, etc.
Its location also does not make it a good connecting point for most of Europe except for Eastern European markets, most of which are also very poor premium markets. Oneworld is made up of many heavily premium-driven carriers, and few of them have shown any inclination to expand or even fly to Berlin (which is one of AB's chief complaints about its OW partners).
 
Independence76
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting neveragain (Reply 4):
Nah, never will.

Just like Qantas will never enter a joint venture with Emirates.

Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.

Nope, can't happen.
QF + EK is not AB + AF/KL.

AB has been codesharing with BA for a while now with no issues. Etihad's lack of alliance membership also shows that they're conservative regarding the idea. They're not going to force AB into an alliance just after they just entered another one. There are costly penalties for violating such contracts.

[Edited 2012-10-29 14:29:33]
 
kyrone
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:38 pm

I think AB would definitely suffer on the proposed ORD route should they switch. DL does not have the feed that AA can provide in ORD.

However, it wouldn't be the first time an announced route didnt happen. I'm not aware of AB signing a ground handler yet or getting a ticket counter...
 
FI642
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:07 pm

OW needs that hub in BER when it opens. They'll do whatever they can to keep Air Berlin in their alliance. LH needs a bit of competition on their home turf.
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commavia
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:02 am

I have no doubt that the members of oneworld would like for Air Berlin to stay, and Air Berlin does provide some marginal benefit to some particular oneworld members in terms of feed and general German presence - AA, BA/Iberia and Finnair especially. Nonetheless, I doubt oneworld would put up a massive fight to keep Air Berlin - certainly nothing on the order of what happened 2 1/2 years ago with JAL. JAL was an absolutely critical, strategically crucial member of the alliance and especially for some other members (especially AA) - thus we witnessed a massive and expensive retention campaign. I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.
 
LAXintl
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:13 am

Quoting LJ (Reply 10):
One of the owners of AB (EY) doesn't have any interest in AB staying in Oneworld either (more so when one of its competitors will join in the future).

  . EY has explicitly stated they wish for AB to get closer to AF/KL. Doing this while member of a competing alliance will only make any partnership less workable.

Quoting panamair (Reply 12):
A brand spanking new large airport is not going to change Berlin into a hugely desirable market; the problem with Berlin has been (and will be for the foreseeable future) its lack of a decent premium market. Most corporate traffic is focused elsewhere - FRA, DUS, MUC, etc.
Its location also does not make it a good connecting point for most of Europe except for Eastern European markets, most of which are also very poor premium markets. Oneworld is made up of many heavily premium-driven carriers, and few of them have shown any inclination to expand or even fly to Berlin (which is one of AB's chief complaints about its OW partners).

   I have long had doubts about the viability of a hub in Berlin due to the realities it faces.
As you state geography, demographics, and economics all work against BER as much of a Europe continental hub.

Quoting FI642 (Reply 15):
OW needs that hub in BER when it opens. They'll do whatever they can to keep Air Berlin in their alliance.

Yes OW might wish to have a continental Europe hub, but frankly I don't think BER was really the answer nor offering much in the grand scale to the alliance.
I think OW can go back to the drawing board and come up with a better plan for central Europe.

Quoting FI642 (Reply 15):
LH needs a bit of competition on their home turf.

Sure LH could see some competition, but I don't think it matters much if its OW of ST.

Quoting commavia (Reply 16):
I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.

Only one I can see putting up a bit of a fight is British Airways which sponsored AB.
BA wanted continental partner after its own failed efforts of running airlines in France and Germany, so linking up with a carrier in a huge market like Germany is beneficial for BA.

But, yes at the end, I agree, I cant see a major battle to hang onto AB. I'm not even sure most OW members even know what to make of AB with its confused product offering.
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AA767LOVER
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:08 am

Simply put, if AF wants to keep AB in bed for a hot and steamy liaison, they better be willing to pay the price to help sponsor them over to Skyteam. Otherwise, it's just a one night stand with empty promises. AF wants AB? Great, then they should fork out the cash. To join ANY alliance, and leave another, there are "change penalties" just like they fine us for "refund/redeposit" or "change fees". It's not so easy to say, ditch OW and come over. AB needs to fork out money on its own to leave OW. I have nothing against Skyteam and I think the carriers involved are of high quality, but not as high as OW. Delta is the only exception. I find Delta to be the best and strongest Skyteam carrier - far better quality than AA in many respects - and more choices. Though I really hate the Skymiles policy of $150 for ANY changes - date change or whatever. Even AA and UA don't charge for date changes, only for change of carrier or change of routing. Other than that, Delta is very superior product.
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting AA767LOVER (Reply 18):
I find Delta to be the best and strongest Skyteam carrier - far better quality than AA in many respects - and more choices

Being the only SkyTeam carrier I've flown I can't say if they're the best in that alliance. They are, however, IMHO far superior to AA, who I consider to be the weak link in what is otherwise a fairly premium collection of airlines.
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AA767LOVER
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:29 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 19):

Yes, I strongly agree with you - and don't forget the many hundreds and thousands of people who have faced cancellations because of AA. I keep my title AA767LOVER because I love the classic -200's. Chubby, cute and short!
Imagine if the rumor ever became true that US really wanted to pursue AA, that's two mediocre airlines right there.
I would prefer Delta since they have a lot of commonalities. Delta is in a good position, but needs to be much stronger to buy able to buy out AA. Hey in a case like that, which name would they choose? Delta or American?

Continental was better than Northwest when they were under Skyteam, but not better than Delta. I appreciated Delta's service overall.
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:59 am

Interesting twist.

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.

All that is required is that AB be in an alliance when BER (finally) opens. Keep the code share with AA... Otherwise, why not shop for the best deal?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
EY has explicitly stated they wish for AB to get closer to AF/KL.

And the golden rule speaks.... This implies EY is leaning towards Skyteam. It would strengthen the alliance to add both AB and EY tremendously...

IMHO a DL/AB/EY partnership would be impressive. (We already have AF/AB). Would KL/AB add much? (Note: I'm asking a serious question. Does AB add much to KL's network?)

Lightsaber
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DTWLAX
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:30 am

Quoting neveragain (Reply 4):
Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.

Is QR not joining OW?
 
neveragain
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:05 am

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 13):
They're not going to force AB into an alliance just after they just entered another one. There are costly penalties for violating such contracts.

OK, that's the answer, then.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):

Perhaps it depends on how easy it would be to switch alliances at this point.

I think you've got it. I certainly don't know the pricetag or other implications, but I'd never claim that AB leaving oneworld would never happen.

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 22):
Is QR not joining OW?

Sarcasm.

Quoting commavia (Reply 16):

I have no doubt that the members of oneworld would like for Air Berlin to stay, and Air Berlin does provide some marginal benefit to some particular oneworld members in terms of feed and general German presence - AA, BA/Iberia and Finnair especially. Nonetheless, I doubt oneworld would put up a massive fight to keep Air Berlin - certainly nothing on the order of what happened 2 1/2 years ago with JAL. JAL was an absolutely critical, strategically crucial member of the alliance and especially for some other members (especially AA) - thus we witnessed a massive and expensive retention campaign. I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.

Commavia, you've got to be the most inoffensive poster on this board, which is a laudable accomplishment. I'm not sure of anyone else who "covers their bases" like you do. The problem is, I'm often not sure what you really believe (but I've got a pretty good guess). "Sure, oneworld would like to keep AB, but it's okay if they lose them, because it's not like it's JAL, which was really important (good job oneworld!!). And, BTW, if they left, they didn't add anything other than at the margins. So it's OK. But it'd also be OK if they stayed. Either way, it's fine. And it certainly won't affect AA, nevermind they announced a route from ORD-DUS."

(BTW, you use the word "massive" way too much (as many do). When one overuses words, they lose their meaning, although I'm waiting for the first time I can use "retention campaign.")
 
PanHAM
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:44 am

AB invested some 60 to 100 million € in joining OW.

Does AFKL or EY compensate them for that money?

Where's the beef for AB in abandoning OW and becoming a feeder carrier for EY / AFKL instead?

We have discussed that before but I still do not see any advantage for AB in sky team.

They have to struggle with the inability of the Berlin and Brandenburg governmenmts to get the new airport terminal at SXF open and rename the place BER, which is hurting AB badly. Opening of BER could be in 2014 or even later, we willknow that in November.

Looks like AB applied to a loan at the wrong Gulf adress. But then, geeting in bed with QR and Al Baker, is something which may even be less desirable, looking at what happens in Luxemburg.
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bill142
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:55 am

Air Berlins safety record seems to good for them to be an ideal Skyteam candidate.
 
commavia
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:33 am

Quoting neveragain (Reply 23):
Sure, oneworld would like to keep AB, but it's okay if they lose them, because it's not like it's JAL, which was really important

You seem to have gotten my point. JAL was critical to the alliance, so the alliance fought hard to keep them. Air Berlin is not critical to the alliance, so I don't think the alliance will fight nearly as hard to keep them. Not sure why you consider that "covering bases."
 
vfw614
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:20 am

This discussion mostly misses the point that it is no longer airberlin that is calling the shots, but Etihad as airberlin's part-owner and financer. Etihad needs an alliance if they want to survive, now that they are sandwiched between QR (nowwith oneworld) and Emirates (much larger than QR and EY and thus not needing an alliance at this point). So for Etihad pretty much the only option is joining Skyteam - and with AB depending on funds from EY to avoid bancruptcy, what choices do they have?
 
PanHAM
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:24 am

AB is not even critical for Skyteam, they may serve a purpose for EY opening up some gateways and absorbing/feeding Indian Sub Continent / Far East and Africa traffic. I really do not see any other purpose, AFKL can feed their hubs themselves, have done that quite successfully for the past 60 years and, as said many times, BER is not a natural hub, the location is too remote.

The natural hub is DUS which is capacity limited.
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ushermittwoch
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:25 am

Personally, I'd love to see AB move over to Skyteam, purely for selfish reasons.  
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
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CARST
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:17 pm

EY hold 29,21 percent of the AB shares. While this might be a large number, the AB management also works for the other shareholders, which are owning together the other 70,79 percent of AB (53,29% in free float).

http://ir.airberlin.com/en/ir/airberlin-share/shareholder-structure

The management is also limited by ABs absence of funds, they just can't pay a penalty of some 100-500 million Euro for leaving OneWorld and spend additional 100 million to get into SkyTeam. Now if EY or AF/KL come around, giving half a billion in cash to AB for switching alliances that is possible. But I don't see this coming.


The management at AB will have enough work for the next years bringing the airline into the black numbers and serving ALL share- and stakeholders. One the question should be what would SkyTeam offer for AB that OneWorld isn't offering them? And not only, what can AB offer the other SkyTeam airlines? Regarding ABs management on its own, not influenced by EY and regarding the other SkyTeam airlines, also not influenced by EYs money, there is no reason to switch.

But the third and most important question is, would EY spend the mention half billion for AB to switch alliances? Is the German market and ABs network that important for them? Only time will give us the answer.

And we should not forget that there are a lot of airlines codesharing and working with airlines from other alliances. The people here knowing more than me could list plenty of such codeshare-agreements. We should not forget that an alliance is not a JV, sharing revenue and operating as one entity on specific routes. An alliance in the airline industry is just a marketing tool, a number of airlines trying to bind their customers by offering worldwide connections and coordinated frequent flyer programs. But even that last point is not taken up by all airlines, just look at SQ.
 
LAXintl
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:19 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 24):
AB invested some 60 to 100 million € in joining OW.

I very seriously doubt its was more than even 1/10th of this.

Frankly if it was that big, there would be a nice long explanation in the AB annual report for having spent such huge sums.

Instead a few years back I was involved with a carriers alliance choice and entry, and its cost was quite modest.

Most cost involved things like branding (lots of stickers to be added to signs), reprinting of company manuals and training procedures, and the most costly was the back end IT projects.

Quoting CARST (Reply 30):
they just can't pay a penalty of some 100-500 million Euro for leaving OneWorld

Unlike Star, Oneworld does not have a exit fee.

Even Star only charges something like $25mil for a large carrier, which is prorated over 10-year membership period.

[Edited 2012-10-30 08:23:00]
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Joost
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:17 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 1):
they've really jumped into bed with AA on the codesharing deals and are the newest member into OW...
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 13):
AB has been codesharing with BA for a while now with no issues.

They might have no issues with BA, but there is hardly any cooperation either. There is a BA-code on a handful of domestic AB flights, but that's about it. AB had one single flight to LGW, which operated the last flight last Saturday. So now, there is no feeding at all from AB to BA's hubs.

The whole Oneworld membership with AB was only about their AA partnership. By flying into JFK, MIA and LAX, they could use the AA feed very well to fill their Airbus 330s.

Then there is some cooperation with AY, but that's limited to some domestic flights within Finland and the single TXL-HEL route where AB operates a part of the flights - not the volume here. They don't serve MAD (for IB) and have no cooperation with CX, QF, LA or JL.

No, there is hardly any value in ABs membership to Oneworld except for their close AA-cooperation.

As an airline without LHR-slots, I wondered their membership very much from the start. Without LHR-access, why bother joining OneWorld? Now, if AB would be flying 30 A320s per day into LHR from 8 German cities, and they could connect Germany to the OneWorld long-haul network of BA, AA, CX, JL, and join forces with BA on these routes (if BA would want that), it would be a different game. But it isn't.

I'm not sure if Skyteam offers them much more, though. Although close cooperation with AF and KL on Germany - France / Netherlands routes, as well as feeding EY at AUH from Germany, might fit them slightly better. But then again, at least for AMS: why would KL want to give up their own, extensive, long-built German network (10 destinations, at least 3 flights daily to each city), and share it with AB?
 
Joost
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 30):
EY hold 29,21 percent of the AB shares. While this might be a large number, the AB management also works for the other shareholders, which are owning together the other 70,79 percent of AB (53,29% in free float).

But EY is a party with liquidity available. Irrespective whether the money comes from airline revenues or other sources, they have it. And could pursue decisions by paying. You cannot simply get money from free float Shareholders.

And issuing more shares to the stock market to raise money, for a company in though times like AB, is quite suicidal. Issuing shares to a big shareholder is a though decision but could keep the company alive.
 
mitris
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:02 pm

Quoting neveragain (Reply 4):
Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.

How come?
 
Joost
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting mitris (Reply 34):

Quoting neveragain (Reply 4):
Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.

How come?

That was irony. Qatar just announced their membership to oneworld 3 weeks ago. And now, EY looks to be moving towards Skyteam.
 
mitris
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 35):
That was irony. Qatar just announced their membership to oneworld 3 weeks ago. And now, EY looks to be moving towards Skyteam.

Any news on Emirates?
 
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Plane Holland
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 35):
That was irony. Qatar just announced their membership to oneworld 3 weeks ago. And now, EY looks to be moving towards Skyteam.

EK to me seems fit for Star Alliance.
 
delimit
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:24 pm

EK has just about zero use for an alliance. It just needs feeder arrangements in some of the larger markets.

QR and EY need them because they are dwarfed by EK.
 
Joost
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:33 pm

Quoting Delimit (Reply 38):
EK has just about zero use for an alliance. It just needs feeder arrangements in some of the larger markets.

Indeed. EK doesn't need to feed their hub, but only the spokes. They can make use of partners to feed their flights far away from DXB (like their partnership with B6 for the JFK flights), for people who will have a double-connection anyways (ROC-JFK-DXB-NBO, for example).

But they don't want or need other airlines to fly into DXB to feed their short / medium-haul network - they do it themselves and have the volume.

For EY and QR it's different: they need more traffic to flow through AUH and DOH and therefore they want real partnerships with other airlines: let's fly into one others hub to bring passengers to reach the critical mass for the network.
 
LJ
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 32):
No, there is hardly any value in ABs membership to Oneworld except for their close AA-cooperation.

Which will diminsh even further when IB leaves Berlin in January.
 
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:54 pm

It wouldn't be that big of a deal for AB to leave OW. AB needs an alliance when BER opens to help feed. OW isn't exactly helping. With EY owning a big chunk and AF doing the code share... It is time to seriously consider an alliance switch.

This is sort of like a plain man who has no date... its not possible for him to get a date. As soon as he dates someone hot, its possible to get a date with a girl who is a better match.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):
I very seriously doubt its was more than even 1/10th of this.

Frankly if it was that big, there would be a nice long explanation in the AB annual report for having spent such huge sums.

Exactly. AB would have been in big trouble spending that type of money for joining OW.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):
Unlike Star, Oneworld does not have a exit fee.

Interesting tidbit, it makes AB mobile since OW hasn't exactly embraced AB...

Quoting Delimit (Reply 38):

EK has just about zero use for an alliance. It just needs feeder arrangements in some of the larger markets.

True. But doing partnerships such as QF ensures they have market growth. EK needs more US partnerships and that is unlikely to happen without an alliance though...    I personally bet EK will stay out of the alliances.

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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:31 pm

Quoting neveragain (Reply 23):
Sure, oneworld would like to keep AB, but it's okay if they lose them, because it's not like it's JAL, which was really important (good job oneworld!!). And, BTW, if they left, they didn't add anything other than at the margins. So it's OK. But it'd also be OK if they stayed. Either way, it's fine.

That pretty much sums up OW's attitude towards its members, with the exception of JL, and the AA-BA-IB core. They don't seem to care much who comes and goes, who goes bankrupt, or who establishes partnerships outside the alliance.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
OW hasn't exactly embraced AB...

  

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 24):
Where's the beef for AB in abandoning OW and becoming a feeder carrier for EY / AFKL instead?

We have discussed that before but I still do not see any advantage for AB in sky team.

   AF/KL already have an extensive network into Germany. AB adds very little to SkyTeam and can at best aspire to be a feeder carrier for them as you say. OW lacks an airline in central Europe and has poor connections into Germany, AB has more potential there - assuming OW (other than AA) start caring about them some day.

Quoting CARST (Reply 30):
EY hold 29,21 percent of the AB shares. While this might be a large number, the AB management also works for the other shareholders, which are owning together the other 70,79 percent of AB (53,29% in free float).

Yes, but EY has pumped in the money that is currently paying AB's bills and keeping them afloat, and that gives them a lot more effective power than 29.21%.
 
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:27 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):
Even Star only charges something like $25mil for a large carrier, which is prorated over 10-year membership period

There's no set forumla for alliance exit fees. It's a point that is negotiable at ANY time, and subject to any conditions mutually agreed to by the parties involved. Some carriers face nine-figure exit fees under most any circumstances, others may exit an alliance for $0 -- it all depends on what was negotiated.

Quoting Plane Holland (Reply 37):
EK to me seems fit for Star Alliance.

Emirates is most antithetical to the Star Alliance.
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RE: Air France Wants Air Berlin To Abandon OW

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:31 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 43):
Quoting Plane Holland (Reply 37):
EK to me seems fit for Star Alliance.

Emirates is most antithetical to the Star Alliance.

   *A (Mainly LH, but also TK, TI, and SQ) would love to kill off EK. That is one alliance I would bet more than a beer that EK will never join.

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