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United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:57 am

UA is said to be studying the A350-1000 to replace its fleet of B747. The challenger is the B777-X, but considering the program was postponned to early 2020's, the A350-1000 seems to have a good shot here...
How many B744 need to replaced?

Quote:
United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) is in talks with Airbus SAS about buying A350-1000 jets, a step toward the first U.S. purchase for the planemaker’s largest twin-engine model, people familiar with talks said.

The world’s biggest airline is considering the 350-seat plane to replace older Boeing Co. (BA) 747s, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. United already has agreed to buy 25 of the mid-sized A350-900 variant under a 2009 deal that included 25 of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliners.

Rest of the article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...s-a350-to-replace-boeing-747s.html

[Edited 2012-10-31 18:59:02]

[Edited 2012-10-31 19:06:31]
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:07 am

Aren't the A359's meant to replace UA's 747s?
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Stitch
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:11 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
Aren't the A359's meant to replace UA's 747s?

That was the claim at the time, but I am sure UA has the ability to swap models.
 
lostsound
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:32 am

The A350-1000 is getting a lot attention from airlines recently, it wouldn't be surprising if UA upgrade their order to the -1000 variant. Especially if Airbus bring EIS ahead of the -800 model.
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:10 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
Aren't the A359's meant to replace UA's 747s?

Yes, but for their heavy trunk routes the A359 is on the smaller side. To add A350-1000 to the fleet makes fully sense.

Edit: Spelling

[Edited 2012-10-31 20:43:56]
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:20 am

Using B788 configuration as a template, United should be able to configure the A350-1000 with nearly 300 seats in BusinessFirst, Y+, and Y layout. B777X with the B788 template should yield about 325 seats with 9-abreast Y, and about 350 seats with 10-abreast Y.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:54 am

Quoting LostSound (Reply 3):
The A350-1000 is getting a lot attention from airlines recently, it wouldn't be surprising if UA upgrade their order to the -1000 variant.

Adding the 35J would make even more sene, the existing order for 359 takes some 25% less fuel on a trip then UAs 772ER and seats 3 rows more (cabin length 52m vs 49). As UA don't run 10 abrest Y as far as I know the 359 would be a very rational replacement for the 772 by 2015 (or when UA 359 deliveries would start). If they upgrade the slots to 35J they would have to fly those 25% diff for much longer, Boeings possible replacement for the 772ER (78J) in say 2018 or later (B has said 2017ish but realisticly this can be another year).

Why would UA voluntarily delay the process to lower fuel costs when they already have good delivery slots for a 772 replacement and could suitable ones for a 744 replacement (I would say a 777X is equally possible there but 100% dependent on when B makes it available).

I see this kind of things forcing Boeings hand on the 777X thinking.
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AA737-823
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:26 am

Well, this should put and end to all of the "Everyone knows that the 359 is replacing the 744, so quit bringing it up" attitudes.

This kind of surprises me; I really thought they'd go 359 for that size, and then a larger 777X for the high-end.
I'm still not sure I see this as a final, complete answer to the question; part of me still says that they could handle a small fleet of 748's or 380's, and make money with them.
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:30 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
part of me still says that they could handle a small fleet of 748's or 380's, and make money with them.

Apparently UA thinks the same, according to the article:
"United’s A350-900 order came before the merger, so a new deal would expand Airbus’s foothold at the airline and may pave the way for an eventual purchase of A380 double-decker aircraft. Senior vice president for finance, Gerry Laderman, said in an August interview that the airline couldn’t “dismiss the potential” of such a large jet, given the size of its network."
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sweair
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:41 am

How many seats does the 744s have today at UA? The A350 is really a 9Y frame and 350 seats is a very tight squeeze. To go from a 744 to a A359 is a huge down sizing movement IMO. I can see them replacing 772s, that is the least efficient 777 model in service.

But the 744s, really? If EKs A351 cabin would seat just 317 seats, how many seats would the A359 seat?! Boeing's replacement for the 772 is the 7810, I think the 777-8X is a still born, there is no place for it really. And I think they should keep the 77W size and do a new wing, internal stretching and new engines, the 9X will have few customers. The 77F with new wings and engines would probably secure the freighter market too, there is really no need for 2 777-X models, ng the 77W and the F model. That would certainly save some weight and add efficiency.

787-10+ a 77W ng would cover the 300-400 market fine. And a 77F ng would secure that market so well Airbus would not even try.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:59 am

Quote:
To go from a 744 to a A359 is a huge down sizing movement IMO.

That's why UA is talking about the A351  
Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
Boeing's replacement for the 772 is the 7810

But the 787-10X lacks the range of the 772 (and the 744).

Boeing projects the 772 as a 314 seater while Airbus projects the A359 as a 314 seater too. The UA 772 has a 276 seat configuration, a UA A359 would probably do the same.

[Edited 2012-11-01 03:01:08]
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:14 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 8):
Apparently UA thinks the same, according to the article:
"United’s A350-900 order came before the merger, so a new deal would expand Airbus’s foothold at the airline and may pave the way for an eventual purchase of A380 double-decker aircraft. Senior vice president for finance, Gerry Laderman, said in an August interview that the airline couldn’t “dismiss the potential” of such a large jet, given the size of its network."
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
Well, this should put and end to all of the "Everyone knows that the 359 is replacing the 744, so quit bringing it up" attitudes.

Exactly that...the comment by GL dismisses the talk of the 744 replacement solely being about the A350, which was all pre merger UA talk. All the cards on the deck IMHO....A380, B748i etc, etc.

Will be very, very interesting to see how this all plays out.
 
na
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:22 am

The A359 is no proper 744 replacement at all. Its ideal to replace the 777-200 though, and UAs 777s (the oldest 777 fleet worldwide) are not getting any younger as well, the first should be due for retirement past 2015, exactly when the A359 come in.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:51 am

Quoting LostSound (Reply 3):
The A350-1000 is getting a lot attention from airlines recently,

Yeah, as the configuration firms up more and more as the program is progressing rapidly, and since the delivery times are coming down at present, the offering becomes more and more attractive for airlines.  . Though a possible delivery in 2019 is still very far away in the future for an A350-1000 delivery.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 6):
Adding the 35J would make even more sene,

I completely agree with you.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 6):
I see this kind of things forcing Boeings hand on the 777X thinking.

And agian I completely agree with you.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
Well, this should put and end to all of the "Everyone knows that the 359 is replacing the 744, so quit bringing it up" attitudes.

It most probably does. But I believe the contracts signed for the A359 will allow for an upgrade to the A351. Just as the B788 can in most cases be swapped for B789's.  .

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 8):
"United’s A350-900 order came before the merger, so a new deal would expand Airbus’s foothold at the airline and may pave the way for an eventual purchase of A380 double-decker aircraft. Senior vice president for finance, Gerry Laderman, said in an August interview that the airline couldn’t “dismiss the potential” of such a large jet, given the size of its network."

Now that is a very interesting statement, isn't it? Who would have though words like these coming from the new UA, where the former CO board-members presumably only favor Boeing products.   

Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
and 350 seats is a very tight squeeze.

That all depends on the seating configuration. How many first, how many business and how many economy class are they thinking about? That will determine or not if the seating becomes a very tight squeeze.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
But the 787-10X lacks the range of the 772

Yes, it does. So Boeing will need to do something on t=either the B777, on or an all new Y3?   

[Edited 2012-11-01 04:52:23]
 
fun2fly
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:55 am

Quoting na (Reply 12):
The A359 is no proper 744 replacement at all. Its ideal to replace the 777-200 though, and UAs 777s (the oldest 777 fleet worldwide) are not getting any younger as well, the first should be due for retirement past 2015, exactly when the A359 come in.

With 70+ 772's, I'd guess we'll see a multiple a/c replacement solution. Many of CO's are 2000+ build and are in no need for replacement anytime soon so they are candidates for a later Boeing solution. There are some UA builds that will need replacement as noted.

A switch from the A350-900 to the A350-1000 would make sense for UA only if they are not going VLA. I'd guess their TATL JV partner who operates the 748i could give them some insight on that. One thing for sure, UA's 744's need replacement soon as the product is not competitive w/other carriers and costly on fuel.

I don't see any way UA orders the A380 - they are frequency fans (4x EWR>LHR on a 752) not VLA fans.

All we know for sure now is that the 788/789's will replace the 767's.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:05 pm

IF a loyal airline like Continental orders more A350 its should be a shock in Seattle, Cathay should have been the first. IF a second large operator of 777 orders the A350-1000 its time to make the 777-9X a priority. The 787-10 can wait considering the 787-9 is not even flying yet. The 737 Max is fairly defined by now. Boeing needs to maintain a competitive large long range transport.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:53 pm

Ever since the UA-CO merger I expected the A350-1000 to replace their 744s, so this is no surprise to me. I don't think UA can afford to wait for the 777X. Their first A350s (does anyone know when they are expected to arrive?) will be 900s, but as soon as the -1000 will be available UA will take them, they can easily swap slots.



Quoting ferpe (Reply 6):
as far as I know the 359 would be a very rational replacement for the 772 by 2015 (or when UA 359 deliveries would start). If they upgrade the slots to 35J they would have to fly those 25% diff for much longer, Boeings possible replacement for the 772ER (78J) in say 2018 or later (B has said 2017ish but realisticly this can be another year).

But UA didn't plan to replace any 777 with airplanes they have on order now. However, now that the 787-10 seems near, it should be a logical replacement for UA's 777s.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
But the 787-10X lacks the range of the 772 (and the 744).

The 787-10 should be able to do 90% of the current 77E routes. For transantlantic routes and to South America it should be perfect... For Transpacific the A359 will be used.
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:15 pm

I'll bet Boeing, who's offices are close to United-Continential will be sending people to talk about the B-777-9X, B-787-10, and B-747-8 to UA.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:05 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
How many seats does the 744s have today at UA?

374
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:16 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 18):
374

OK quite low for a 420 seat frame? Applying this to a A350-1000 they will have no where near 350 seats on the A350 as Airbus markets it? Quite the reduction in capacity?!
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:17 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
I'll bet Boeing, who's offices are close to United-Continential will be sending people to talk about the B-777-9X, B-787-10, and B-747-8 to UA.

And even more ... you hope and pray.
 

Anyway .. time will tell, but this kind of remind me of the AA ordeal with the NEO and MAX.
Maybe Boeing will rush to the table with an upgraded 777 and UA will end up ordering both that and the A350-1000. How excellent it would be.
Hmm ... that would suit you not so good I guess.
  
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:25 pm

I wonder if they would convert some or all of their existing A350 orders to the A350-1000 or would these orders be new. Also as mentioned they are looking at the A380 to some degree, I could see UA utilizing perhaps 8 A380s. Not much more though.
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Stitch
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
But the 787-10X lacks the range of the 772 (and the 744).

It may end up closer than we might think.

At least when delivered, UA's 777-200ERs were not rated for the full 298t TOW nor were their PW4090 engines pumping out 90k of thrust. That may have been addressed once the merger happened, but I am not sure,

Range at MZFW for the 747-400 is 5250nm at 397t, but there are lower MTOWs (down to 363t) so depending on where UA's planes fall...



Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
If EKs A351 cabin would seat just 317 seats, how many seats would the A359 seat?!

Per EK, the seat counts of the A350-900 and 777-200ER are identical at 12F | 42J | 236Y. The A350-900 gives up 6 Business Class and 25 Economy Class seats due to the narrower cabin width, however they can recover that though the ~3.5m greater cabin length. This allows EK to add an additional row of Business Class (6 seats) and two rows of Economy Class (18). The aft cabin of the A350-900 does not taper as greatly as the 777-200ER, so that allows additional seats to be fitted. So by moving around lavatories or adjusting the forward and aft rows, they can fit the same number of seats.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:40 pm

Well it appears that the A350-1000 is defined enough for Cathay Pacific and United, but not for Boeing who has stated repeatedly that it has time on its side. If the story was leaked with that much detail, then the chances of United placing an order for the larger A350 is pretty high I would guess.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:48 pm

In looking at UA's fleet, the 788 equates to the 763 but with longer range and more lift capacity. The 787-10 can certainly replace the 772 given it can do almost all of the routes (those that can't could be flown by the 789). The difference between the two (35x and 787-x) is weight and some lift capability.

In the very large twin category, UA and CO missed the boat by not ordered the 773ER which could have saved them a ton of cash versus the 744 in fuel and maintenence costs. This article is a shot across the bow for Boeing.

The possible specs for the 777-x would seem to be better overall but it won't be available for eight years or so. UA doesn't want to wait that long to replace the 744's and the 359 order is locked in and I'm sure they have the ability to convert that to a 351 order. Could Boeing still grab this order? Its possible but it depends on the 777-x and whether they will attempt to bridge things with a short term lease of 773's or trying to entice a 748 order (with big discounts).

Airbus might win in large part due to the fact they have a plane which which should be ready at least two years before a 777-x.

Edit: Airbus touts the 351 as an 8,400 nm jet with a three class layout of 350 people. Yes that's a bit less than the 744 but the lower operating costs should make up for that. Also, Airbus will offer a 10 across layout for this plane. I'd think UA would utilize that seating layout to maximize loads.

[Edited 2012-11-01 07:52:44]
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:51 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 21):
I could see UA utilizing perhaps 8 A380s. Not much more though.

Will not happen. The infrastructural cost in the hubs that would use it most (SFO/LAX) would far outweigh the profitability.

In addition, its just to much aircraft. UA is following the mold of CO in many ways, a carrier that operated 737,757.767,777. No sub-fleets for a few routes and no VLA.
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sweair
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:51 pm

Do they really need to enlarge the 77W as its current capacity is above the A351 already. Just put new wings, engines and internal stretch on the 77W and F/L model. A much lighter 77W with new wings and 10% more efficient engines, 4 inch more cabin width or what ever is possible, it would have a better L/D, less thrust needed, lower MTOW, greater range and less fuel burn. A twin maybe at its sweet point at the current 77W size anyway, above this it gets suboptimal? 10Y really gave it 20 more seats for "free".

But that would maybe lead to the 787-10 having to be beefed up to add range to be competitive below the 77W ng.

Biggest hurdle would be to do the new wings, but as the 77W/F and L model would share this wing and engines etc, a cheaper route maybe? The 8X would mean 2 wings, two LG, 2 engine models etc
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:58 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 19):
OK quite low for a 420 seat frame? Applying this to a A350-1000 they will have no where near 350 seats on the A350 as Airbus markets it? Quite the reduction in capacity?!

Just keep in mind the 744's are 3 class (essentially 4ish) birds. Any new frames will probably come in 2 class which will be more dense relative to the 744.
 
sweair
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:25 pm

Will a 2-class cabin make as much profit? How is the industry developing here, are we seeing more 2-class than before?
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:32 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 9):
How many seats does the 744s have today at UA? The A350 is really a 9Y frame and 350 seats is a very tight squeeze. To go from a 744 to a A359 is a huge down sizing movement IMO.

But keep in mind that the post merger UA, has a more hubs than the "old UA" which gives them the ability to create a lot more fragmentation. More fragmentation is the reason why American carriers have for the most part shied away from large airplanes. Unless they plan to close some hubs and de-fragment their network, I don't see the need for large aircraft in UA's future.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:38 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 28):
Will a 2-class cabin make as much profit? How is the industry developing here, are we seeing more 2-class than before?

More and more we are seeing 2-class cabins. First class is slowly becoming a rare offering although I am sure some airlines will continue to offer a first class cabin, but not on all of their WB-airliners.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:38 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 29):

If even the 77W is too big that is saying a lot and still some talk about A380s for UA.. I guess 330-340 seats is the largest capacity needed for american airlines really?
 
jreuschl
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:46 pm

Anyone see them ordering 748I?
 
sweair
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:49 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 30):
First class is slowly becoming a rare offering although I am sure some airlines will continue to offer a first class cabin, but not on all of their WB-airliners.

But Y+ seems like its growing no? Y,Y+ and J is common IMO.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:57 pm

When UA ordered the A350-900, there weren’t enough year-round routes with enough demand to sustain a 747 to justify keeping an airplane of that size in the fleet. SFO-NRT, ORD-NRT, SFO-HKG, ORD-HKG, SFO-SYD and LAX-SYD were the only routes needing the 747. With better economics a plane I that size can make money on the competitive transatlantic routes like SFO-LHR and SFO-FRA. The PMCO network didn’t bring a lot of demand for heavy lift. EWR-TLV might be it.

UA traditionally preferred to adjust capacity using frequency rather than aircraft size. I am confident that an airplane the size of the A350-1000 (or 777x) would fit in their network, but UA doesn’t like flying around empty seats so they are very judicious with capacity management. They are far more judicious with capacity management and maintain load factors in the 86-87% range. In order to maintain high load factors they have to have capacity and frequency adjustments. If they have too many large airplanes, load factor and RASM go down.

UA may order the A350-1000. I personally think an airplane of that capacity would fit well in their fleet. I think it is very important how Airbus prices it. Since there are still very few customers for the A350-1000 vs the A350-900, the financing rates are going to be higher unless Airbus works a deal or converts many airlines to the -1000.
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EPA001
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:01 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 33):
But Y+ seems like its growing no?

I don't have any read data on that. But I guess it is. First class is not that necessary anymore since the level of comfort in Business Class has improved so much over the last 5-10 years. Y+ is a nice product which provides just that little bit extra comfort for a moderate price increase. It is what I usually book on long trips, and it suits me perfectly.

So if that is representative for UA's thoughts about new cabins for their new airliners, they could find me as a paying customer again. (Well, actually, I never left them  ).
 
phxa340
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 31):
I guess 330-340 seats is the largest capacity needed for american airlines really?

A 77W is probably the biggest aircraft they need, likewise a 744 for DL and UA do fine. An A380 would work wonders if DL UA and AA didn't have multiple hubs. They have said it before, they will say it again ... frequency is king, especially when dealing with multiple hubs.

As for United ordering the A350-1000 ... it seems pretty logical. I wouldn't blink an eye if they did order it. To all the posters that are calling for the demise of the 777X as a failure, I find it pretty hypocritical as the A350-1000 has many unknowns still out there (albeit not near as much as the 777x). I see UA in no hurry with this order as both are years away from first flight.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:10 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 21):
I wonder if they would convert some or all of their existing A350 orders to the A350-1000 or would these orders be new.

As far as I was aware, all the contacts for the -900 gave airlines the choice of either the -1000 or -800 after they had their minimum number of -900s.
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting as739x (Reply 25):
Will not happen. The infrastructural cost in the hubs that would use it most (SFO/LAX) would far outweigh the profitability.

The wouldn't use them at LAX, which is going from 777s to smaller 787s on some routes. They would use them at SFO and maybe ORD. SFO is already ready to go with A380s, they can use the International terminal.
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:39 pm

A lot of people are speculating that UA would upgrade the A359 order to the -1000 model. Recall that UA has 50 options on the A350 (same as the 787), personally I see them exercising some of those to get addtional aircraft. This would result in a UA widebody fleet of 788, 789, A359, A3510, which gives them maximum flexibility in moving capacity around the network. They will need those 359's to replace the 70+ 772s in the fleet that will be 25 years old (oldest frame) in 2020.

By the mid 2020's I see the UA fleet looking something like this:

C-series (still a possibility in my mind)
737NG/737 MAX
788
789
A359
A3510
 
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DocLightning
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:03 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):

I'll bet Boeing, who's offices are close to United-Continential will be sending people to talk about the B-777-9X, B-787-10, and B-747-8 to UA.

When you get into large aircraft, it's not like single-aisle aircraft, where US airlines need hundreds of frames. At present UA operates 24x744 and 74x772 (55x77E, 19x77A).

On these smaller scales, it might make more sense to operate multiple variants of a single type for reasons of crew commonality and maintenance simplicity.

By contrast, they operate 242x737 variants, 133x752 and 152xA320 variants. For a NB fleet that size, it might make sense to operate a mixed fleet because economies of scale cease to be a major factor once you get into those sorts of numbers.
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:08 pm

Wouldn't the 787-10 be cheaper to operate than the 359 while having a range sufficient for most of the 772 routes? I'm not vested in one type or the other but I thought the 35x aircraft were slated by UA to fill the need of heavy lift routes flown currently by the 744?

I think the big debate would be at the large a/c replacements. Keep in mind UA already has a substantial investment in their 359 order so we should assume they will be purchasing some flavor of 35x

[Edited 2012-11-01 10:31:29]
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:16 pm

I still don't see how the A359 fits them.

To me looking at their fleet the 762s and 763s should be replaced by 788s. The 764s and some 772s should be replaced by 7810s. The remainder of the 772s and the 747s should be replaced by A3510s. Or if a VLA is warranted then the 748i. The A380 just seems too large for UA.

So eventually...

50 788s
50 7810s
50 A3510s
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 35):
I don't have any read data on that. But I guess it is. First class is not that necessary anymore since the level of comfort in Business Class has improved so much over the last 5-10 years. Y+ is a nice product which provides just that little bit extra comfort for a moderate price increase. It is what I usually book on long trips, and it suits me perfectly.

So if that is representative for UA's thoughts about new cabins for their new airliners, they could find me as a paying customer again. (Well, actually, I never left them ).

As much as I hope UA (and AA) don't abandon F completely, I feel like it's moving to where only a handful of carriers in each alliance will have it, and the U.S. carriers will put you on those for true F. The increasing concentration of F in those major trunk routes to me signals that kind of move at some point.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:54 pm

Here's a report from Bizjournals:

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/b...continental-holdings-in-talks.html

Although I wouldn't be surprised if UA converted their existing A359 orders to the -1000, it also needs to be pointed out that UA's eldest 777s (including the A models) will be at least 20yrs old by the time the 359 would enter service with the carrier.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 24):
The possible specs for the 777-x would seem to be better overall but it won't be available for eight years or so. UA doesn't want to wait that long to replace the 744's and the 359 order is locked in and I'm sure they have the ability to convert that to a 351 order. Could Boeing still grab this order? Its possible but it depends on the 777-x and whether they will attempt to bridge things with a short term lease of 773's or trying to entice a 748 order (with big discounts).

Airbus might win in large part due to the fact they have a plane which which should be ready at least two years before a 777-x.

Edit: Airbus touts the 351 as an 8,400 nm jet with a three class layout of 350 people. Yes that's a bit less than the 744 but the lower operating costs should make up for that. Also, Airbus will offer a 10 across layout for this plane. I'd think UA would utilize that seating layout to maximize loads.

Yes, but when will it be available; it looks like 2020-2022 now, so you're talking about the 744s coming up to 30yrs old and I don't think that's going to be attractive to anyone; more economical to repair, less competitive economically etc etc. I have no doubt that all things being equal and the 777X being available around the same time as the A350-1000, the 777 would win quite easily, but it isn't. In a sense it's like history repeating itself (i.e. the 787's delays helping the A330's sales), but this time it's Boeing itself that's creating the delay. Lots of carriers - quite apart from EK, which we know about - would probably like the 777X if it were available pre-2020, but another 2-3 years of delay and Boeing just hands sales to the A350-1000.

As for range, the A350-1000's range is good enough for practically anything in the UA system, including ORD-HKG and LAX/SFO-MEL/SYD.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:15 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
I'll bet Boeing, who's offices are close to United-Continential will be sending people to talk about the B-777-9X, B-787-10, and B-747-8 to UA.

Just FYI, we have a rep from each, Boeing and Airbus, on site full time during the business day.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 41):
I think the big debate would be at the large a/c replacements. Keep in mind UA already has a substantial investment in their 359 order so we should assume they will be purchasing some flavor of 35x

Correct, there would be a massive penalty for cancelling the order, the strict terms were compensatory for Airbus allowing UA to the cancel a previous order.
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:16 pm

In my opinion, United will end up operating a mix of 787-8/-9/-10 and A350-900/-1000s, eventually. No VLAs for this one, though I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing will fight hard to get them on board for 777-8X/-9X combo.
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:52 pm

UA has 50 options for the 787, so I could see them increasing their 787-9 order from the current 14 because it's a direct replacement for the 777-200 and 777-200ER, offering the exact same seat counts. I could also see the 787-10 as a 777-200 replacement for Hawaii and TATL.

As for the A350-900 order, I could see them convert the entire order to the A350-1000 to replace the 747-400 fleet. UA also has 50 A350 options, so they can exercise them as needed for replacement of the ULH 777-200ER missions (West Coast to Europe and East Coast to Asia).
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 7:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
UA also has 50 A350 options, so they can exercise them as needed for replacement of the ULH 777-200ER missions (West Coast to Europe and East Coast to Asia).

The interesting thing about this is the fact that the 350-1000 is much larger than the 772ER. The 351 could certainly be a replacement for the 744 (it should seat at least as many as the 744 in a two class layout but with more range and lower costs). The 351 is way too much a/c I think for the existing routes flown by the 772ER. I'd think the 789 or 787-1000 would fit that role with lower fuel burn given the a/c itself is lighter.

Interesting times ahead for UA. I didn't realize till I reviewed the Airbus info that they claim a range of 8,400 nm for the 351, that's pretty amazing and should make it very competitive as a 744 replacement for those airlines that need that much range. It begs the question what EK doesn't like about it? That range should put it square in the DXB to LAX performance envelope (which is 7,246 nm per gcmap). Accounting for the west-bound route over the pole, shouldn't this a/c be able to fly with full passengers and payload on that route?
 
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RE: United Replacing B747 By A350-1000?

Thu Nov 01, 2012 7:09 pm

Sorry if this has been posted, but Reuters says that Boeing held a closed meeting YESTERDAY with all the 777x potential customers in their artical about United and the 350-1000 issue

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...e=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=76
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