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LAXintl
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Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:03 pm

Back by request, here is an update on aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

Below values are estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.

A319 – $12.0-34.4M, $120-260,000
A320 – $4.0 - 40.5M, $65-300,000
A321 – $20.0 - 48.5M, $180-365,000
A330-200 – $40.0 - 88.5M, $400-830,000
A340-300 – $8.0 -55.0M, $180-490,000
B737-300 – $1.8 – 6.0M, $40-90,000
B737-700 - $13.0 - 36.0M, $140-290,000
B737-800 - $17.0 - 44.5M, $190-350,000
B737-900ER - $33.5 - 48.0M, $290-390,000
B747-400 – $12.0 – 50.0M, $220-550,000
B757-200 – $6.0 – 21.0M, $100-220,000
B767-300ER – $10.0 – 61.5M, $170-460,000
B777-200ER – $43.0 – 118.0M, $450-950,000
B777-300ER – $93.0 – 158.0M, $850-1,400,000
MD-11 - $8.0 – 13.0M , $150-210,000
MD-82 - $0.7 - 2.2M, $25-48,000
CRJ200 – $1.8 - 6.5M, $35-85,000
CRJ700 – $10.5 – 22.5M, $105-225,000
CRJ900 - $13.0 – 25.0M, $135-250,000
Q400 – $10.0 – 19.5M, $120-220,000
ERJ145 – $4.0 – 8.9M, $45-105,000
EMB170 – $14.4 – 26.2M, $140-240,000
EMB190 – $20.7 – 32.6M, $195-285,000
ATR-72 – $6.8 – 18.1M, $85-180,000


The grand bargain remains the MD-80 series. You can own your own for mere $700,000 or a $25,000 monthly lease   


Information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of September 2012.


Sources: IBA/Ascend

=
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capri
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:17 pm

wow, I am sure the airlines hit the wall when their yields in first and business class are very low because if you go by published economy fares, there is no way you make it , especially when you add all the extras (fuel, personnel, etc..) to the monthly lease
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:55 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A340-300 – $8.0 -55.0M, $180-490,000

Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343   
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Lufthansa
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:06 am

Very Interesting indeed.

Do we have a price for the Fokker 100? these are becoming very popular for mining operations in Australia with the fleet growing all the time, and I'm wondering with its high tail configuration if the MD-80 would also be well suited to this kind of work, but offering a capacity boost?
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:03 am

wow, what a great collection of information, thanks for sharing!
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:05 am

Thank you for these numbers. I always enjoy seeing them and find them interesting.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B747-400 – $12.0 – 50.0M, $220-550,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B777-200ER – $43.0 – 118.0M, $450-950,000
B777-300ER – $93.0 – 158.0M, $850-1,400,000

How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343

   They are worth quite a bit as A333 parts.   I expect the A345 and A346 to trail by only a few years.

But the same is true of the 733.   


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karan69
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:10 am

Thanks for the figures

Any idea of the 330-300 figures?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
They are worth quite a bit as A333 parts

   But to add to that the lower rates have enabled airlines like EK to renew leases on their 343s and keep them flying till replacements start arriving

Karan
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:27 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The grand bargain remains the MD-80 series. You can own your own for mere $700,000 or a $25,000 monthly lease

That's interesting as G4 seems to abandoning them un favor of 319s which are higher valued than the 320s.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343

Yes likely. The secondary market seems near dead on the model. Several operators have frames for sale without takers.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 3):
Do we have a price for the Fokker 100?

Most recent valuation I could find was from April 2012.

$2.3 – 3.7M, $50-70,000

Seems with over 80-frames parked its not a model that has wide interest.

Quoting khpn (Reply 4):
wow, what a great collection of information, thanks for sharing!
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
Thank you for these numbers. I always enjoy seeing them and find them interesting.

You are welcome.   

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

Indeed the 744 is yesterdays plane for most. Its economics no longer work the way it did when compared to more efficient models like the 777.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
But the same is true of the 733.

One good thing about older 733s is there is still demand, and rather regular secondary transactions, so the fleet is being churned. Its not stuck in neutral like others.

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 6):
Any idea of the 330-300 figures?

A330-300 – $18.0 - 97.0M, $240-880,000

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 7):
That's interesting as G4 seems to abandoning them un favor of 319s which are higher valued than the 320s.

Keep in mind, the low end of A320 pricing is lower as there are lots of older 20+ year airframes out there now. (and likely headed for the scrap man)
But if you look at the top end, the A320 still commands the premium.

I'm sure there are good bargains to be had on A319s particularly as more come off leases from their first owners and become more ubiquitous on the secondary market.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:51 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A321 – $20.0 - 48.5M, $180-365,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B737-900ER - $33.5 - 48.0M, $290-390,000

Interesting to see that the value of a near-new A321 has finally overtaken that of a 737-900ER. The 737-900ER's higher value was always one of the bigger puzzles in earlier versions of these threads.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

747-400 passenger values have cratered because with the air cargo slump, there is no demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions. So instead of being feed-stock, they're now parts-stock.

Cargo operators are holding on to their dedicated freighters, so values for both the 747-8F and 747-400F remain strong.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
The 737-900ER's higher value was always one of the bigger puzzles in earlier versions of these threads.

The 737NG family as a whole has consistently had higher values than the A320 family, so while the A321-200 is a more capable airframe than the 737-900ER, I expect it's a case of "high tide lifts all boats".
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

So what are values for the 77L? Will the AI decision to dump their 5 77L affect the values greatly?

Regards
BWIA 772

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:40:49]
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:51 pm

I don't have any published 777LR values. Its such a small fleet and the lack of transactions provides not much history.

The LR really only has value to someone that needs the range, otherwise one can actually easily argue the LR is a handicapped and less desirable compared the the -200ER due to it being a heavier frame (bigger wing, extra plumbing for cargo aux tanks, less cargo space, etc).

I know an operator that was speaking with AI almost 2-years ago about leasing the aircraft and at that time AI insisted on pricing which would cover their own purchase ownership cost for the models. This asking price was unrealistic as the open market had the larger 77W leases at about the same price.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:37 pm

Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 11):
So what are values for the 77L?

As of April 2012, average airframe values range between $96 million for a 2006 delivery to $121 million for a 2011 delivery.

777-200LR values average ~20% stronger than 777-200ER values of similar delivery ranges as it's performance capabilities make it pretty much master of it's niche.

In terms of lease rates, EK pays $1.2 million a month so I expect that's a fair idea of what other lessees are paying.



Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 11):
Will the AI decision to dump their 5 77L affect the values greatly?

The near-term trend on values is they will not contract very much.

[Edited 2012-11-06 11:10:09]
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:57 pm

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 6):
But to add to that the lower rates have enabled airlines like EK to renew leases on their 343s and keep them flying till replacements start arriving

Wait, did EK renew leases? Those aircraft were supposed to be leaving the fleet.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
747-400 passenger values have cratered because with the air cargo slump, there is no demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions. So instead of being feed-stock, they're now parts-stock.

Cargo operators are holding on to their dedicated freighters, so values for both the 747-8F and 747-400F remain strong.

Do you mean factory built 744F values remain strong? If 744BCF values were strong, I would expect to see some conversions that would the state of the passenger 744.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
This asking price was unrealistic as the open market had the larger 77W leases at about the same price.

And getting less realistic as 787 deliveries ramp up... (Like it or not, for non-ULH missions there is some competition between the 788 and 77L.)

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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:25 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
Do you mean factory built 744F values remain strong?

Correct.

747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.

   and not just BCF but there are now 7 pure -400F parked also.

This was actually brought up on the Atlas Air earnings call. The BCF was termed, handicap as it is older, less reliable, heavier and is less weight and capacity capable. Said they foresee the industry shying away from the BCF unless there is a major uptick in global airfreight - something not forecast for the next couple of years.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:16 pm

I'm going to repeat a question: Did EK renew their leases on the A343s? I was expecting them to leave the fleet this year (possibly into early 2013).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.

Ouch... Thank you.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
Said they foresee the industry shying away from the BCF unless there is a major uptick in global airfreight - something not forecast for the next couple of years.

Interesting. Are *any* 744s being converted in 2012 or 2013?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
The BCF was termed, handicap as it is older, less reliable, heavier and is less weight and capacity capable.

This implies the 'baseload' of freight demand wants that nose door (or perhaps just the weight lift of the factory 744F).

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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:26 pm

There is an interesting piece of information on Aspire Aviation about the 747 BCF:

Quote:
As for grounding the 747-400BCF, the cost saving is more significant as not only the 747-8F is 16% more fuel efficient per payload tonne than the 747-400F and around 23% more fuel efficient than the 747-400BCF, the 747-400BCF is also maintenance-heavy which is very expensive. Grounding these maintenance-intensive, fuel inefficient 747-400BCF freighters and taking cargo capacity out of a soft market not only saves expensive fuel and maintenance costs, but also prevents further pressuring the cargo yields.
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2012/0...or-cathay-pacific-in-stormy-skies/
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:28 pm

I'm going to repeat a question: Did EK renew their leases on the A343s? I was expecting them to leave the fleet this year (possibly into early 2013).[/quote]

An EK executive last month stated they were working to phase out the A330-200, A340-300, A340-500, 777-200 and 777-200ER by 2017, with one or two perhaps sticking around longer.



Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
Are *any* 744s being converted in 2012 or 2013?

Back in July, Boeing delivered the 50th 747-400BCF to Evergreen International Airlines (it was EVA's first delivery). That appears to be the latest.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:26 pm

The global economic malaise, and especially the Chinese export engine slowdown has effected the freighter aircraft market.

Looks like finally will see the death of the 747 Classic and models like the DC-10 (except for FX MD-10 conversions), while even many newer models are parked and available.
As both passenger and cargo carriers continue to see economic headwinds, the pruning of fleet and networks have not exempted freighter ops.
Also I see this as partially behind Airbus inability to get its P2F ventures off the ground.
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don
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:13 am

Your post is very timely for me as I have just started a very preliminary feasibility study for a 747 dry leasing project on behalf of a friend.

Do you have any figures for 747 pax dry leasing rates for both 747 classic and 744 ?

Thank you very much.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting don (Reply 21):
Do you have any figures for 747 pax dry leasing rates for both 747 classic and 744?

747 Classics are at scrap values nowadays, so not sure what, if any, lease market is around for them. For freighters, a 747-200SF leases out for around $65,000-90,000 a month. Southern Air has a large fleet in storage due to the high maintenance and fuel costs, which has depressed values.

Averages for the 747-400 are between $170,000-295,000 a month for a 1989-1995 delivery and $245,000-505,000 for a 1996-2002 delivery.

Due to the general lack of demand for the type, if you are planning a short-term lease or a less secure customer, expect to pay a premium.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:42 pm

Do you have any numbers for the Dash 8 100/200/300?
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
747 Classics are at scrap values nowadays, so not sure what, if any, lease market is around for them. For freighters, a 747-200SF leases out for around $65,000-90,000 a month. Southern Air has a large fleet in storage due to the high maintenance and fuel costs, which has depressed values.

Averages for the 747-400 are between $170,000-295,000 a month for a 1989-1995 delivery and $245,000-505,000 for a 1996-2002 delivery.

Due to the general lack of demand for the type, if you are planning a short-term lease or a less secure customer, expect to pay a premium.

Thank you, Much appreciated.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:53 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
ATR-72 – $6.8 – 18.1M, $85-180,000

I am amazed that the ATR 72 holds it value so well. I count at least 48 returned to lessors this year out of a total production of +500 produced, that is almost 10% of the fleet.

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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:56 pm

Quoting Dash8Driver16 (Reply 23):
Do you have any numbers for the Dash 8 100/200/300?

The Dash8-100 is between $20,000 and $40,000 a month. The -200 runs $30,000 to $40,000. The -300 is $35,000 to $90,000 and the -400 is $70,000 to $190,000.

Higher values are for later deliveries.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:01 pm

With all these A340-500/600 on the ground, I would not be surprised if you could get a good bargain on them wether it's leasing or buying. Can anyone find the number's and possibly compare them to what it was a couple of years ago??
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:13 am

Quoting cuban8 (Reply 27):
With all these A340-500/600 on the ground, I would not be surprised if you could get a good bargain on them wether it's leasing or buying. Can anyone find the number's and possibly compare them to what it was a couple of years ago?


(Average Monthly Rents in Thousands of US Dollars)

A340-500 (2002 Delivery)

2008: $882,000
2009: $660,000
2010: $465,000
2011: $360,000
2012: $290,000


A340-600 (2002 Delivery)

2008: $904,000
2009: $600,000
2010: $490,000
2011: $370,000
2012: $300,000
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:32 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):

That's an amazing drop in value! I can't imagine what the lessors are going through?

It's almost like the housing market? Just let mortgage lapse and start all over (dissolve one LLC and start another in order to reap the benefits).

Almost unprecedented in aircraft leasing for a asset to decline that quickly...
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
A340-500 (2002 Delivery)
Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
2012: $290,000

Damn, if my family sells our house, we can rent an A345 for a month     

What a drop. I'm probably gonna safely say that in the next few years, the only people flying A345s and A346s will be VIP operators, or airlines that can afford gas guzzlers. Sad, because the higher-up A345-346 family is my favorite family of A/c.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:55 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
Also I see this as partially behind Airbus inability to get its P2F ventures off the ground.

Agreed. Oh, coupled with decent A330 resale value in passenger configuration too... Hence why Boeing has delayed the 777 conversion too (not as publicly as Airbus I must admit).

Quoting cuban8 (Reply 27):
With all these A340-500/600 on the ground

How many are parked? I've heard of only a few. I was speaking more future tense, but if you know of more, please provide a link.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Back in July, Boeing delivered the 50th 747-400BCF to Evergreen International Airlines (it was EVA's first delivery). That appears to be the latest.

Thank you. While 3 to 4 months isn't a long time to wait, it implies that conversion is slow on the 744.

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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:10 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
A340-500 (2002 Delivery)

2008: $882,000
2009: $660,000
2010: $465,000
2011: $360,000
2012: $290,000


A340-600 (2002 Delivery)

2008: $904,000
2009: $600,000
2010: $490,000
2011: $370,000
2012: $300,000

Wow... That is a plummet. Almost plots with the inverse of oil prices.  
Quoting mffoda (Reply 29):
Almost unprecedented in aircraft leasing for a asset to decline that quickly...

Concur. What surprises me is how close the rates are on the A345/A346. I would have expected a divergence over time.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
I'm probably gonna safely say that in the next few years, the only people flying A345s and A346s will be VIP operators, or airlines that can afford gas guzzlers. Sad, because the higher-up A345-346 family is my favorite family of A/c.

Concur. As soon as 787 and A350 production spools up, I expect the types to be quickly replaced. $300,000/month translates to about $40million (maybe a bit less due to the plane being depreciated for a decade). That imlies a few more years before parts are the #1 value for the type. But on those curves, not many more years...

I do not expect VS to be the last looking to replace their A346s:
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...0-and-a340-600-replacement-377897/


Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...dicates-additional-ba-777s-378769/

Iberia would have had 40 A330/340s by 2015 under IAG's original fleet schedule, with eight A330s due to be delivered over the interim period.

But the Iberia long-haul fleet will instead drop to 29 in 2015 as A340s are withdrawn, according to a detailed schedule breakdown given by IAG chief financial officer Enrique Dupuy.


Per wikipedia, Iberia has 34 A340s (half A346/ half A343) and will receive 8 A330s. Now, A343s were already scheduled to leave (hence 34+8-2=40). So with 29, that implies 11 A340s withdrawn. Will they be A343s or A346s?!? It would depend on lease schedules/return penalties I assume... But I know zero facts other than in the link.

[Edited 2012-11-10 17:14:56]
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:50 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 29):
That's an amazing drop in value! I can't imagine what the lessors are going through?

The 737-800 and A320-200 also saw tremendous drops in their lease rates once the GFC hit - rates dropped by over half between 2007 and 2012.

Really, the only two planes that have held their rates are the 777-300ER and A380-800.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:30 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):

Evergreen will be taking delivery of another one in the first week of December, which is either their third or forth. And then in 2013, they have three or four more coming into the fleet throughout the year. The plan is to replace all the classics with -400 based aircraft eventually.
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:35 am

I'm interested in the data on the ex-SV MD-90s. It has yet to be determined, but some time next year we'll know the market lease rate for these specific aircraft.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The grand bargain remains the MD-80 series. You can own your own for mere $700,000 or a $25,000 monthly lease   

         Exactly why DL will eventually own all remaining SK MD-80 inventory.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
MD-11 - $8.0 – 13.0M , $150-210,000

It's too bad that no airline is in the right position to add a new type to it's long haul fleet, (Ala TAM a few years ago), But $13M for a full PIP mod 1995-96 circa MD-11 would be very competitive in operational P&L vs many 772ER or A343s. In fact, noting the relative performance vs expense - and comparison to similar quality competitors at prices - the KL MD-11 fleet (which is full PIP mod), would seem to an attractive option.

Unfortunately for us Trijet lovers, it's bad timing in the cycle period, as virtually all pax operators are committed to current and/or future types for the category, with significant numbers or obligation. As an advocate for the MD-11, what was needed was another TAM-like situation, where an airline is in transition and needs an interim/short-mid-term fleet type.

Needless to say, much more likely to occur in the narrowbody category.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
astuteman
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 2:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
The 737NG family as a whole has consistently had higher values than the A320 family, so while the A321-200 is a more capable airframe than the 737-900ER, I expect it's a case of "high tide lifts all boats".

Airbus admitted that mid last decade they were a tad sharper on A32X pricing than they might have wanted to be. I wonder if the stronger prices for latest editions is a result of stronger new prices..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
Really, the only two planes that have held their rates are the 777-300ER and A380-800.

The newest models I guess.

Rgds
 
mffoda
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 2:52 pm

As Stitch pointed out, all lease rates have taken a hit. I thought it would be useful to see them together.

Here's a side by side comparison of lease rates provided by LAXintl from 2008 and in this thread.

LAXintl Recent List------------ LAXintl 2008 list

A319 – $12.0-34.4M, $120-260,000------------ A319-100 - 215-350
A320 – $4.0 - 40.5M, $65-300,000------------- A320-200 - 260-415
A321 – $20.0 - 48.5M, $180-365,000------------- A321-200 - 285-450
A330-200 – $40.0 - 88.5M, $400-830,000------------- A330-200 - 590-880
A340-300 – $8.0 -55.0M, $180-490,000------------- A340-300 - 485-900
B737-300 – $1.8 – 6.0M, $40-90,000------------- B737-300 - 130-190
B737-700 - $13.0 - 36.0M, $140-290,000------------- B737-700 - 250-370
B737-800 - $17.0 - 44.5M, $190-350,000--------------- B737-800 - 290-425
B737-900ER - $33.5 - 48.0M, $290-390,000------------- No data
B747-400 – $12.0 – 50.0M, $220-550,000------------- B747-400 - 470-975
B757-200 – $6.0 – 21.0M, $100-220,000------------- B757-200 - 165-305
B767-300ER – $10.0 – 61.5M, $170-460,000------------- B767-300ER - 410-690
B777-200ER – $43.0 – 118.0M, $450-950,000------------- B777-200ER - 680-1.06mil
B777-300ER – $93.0 – 158.0M, $850-1,400,000------------- B777-300ER - 995-1.3mil
MD-11 - $8.0 – 13.0M , $150-210,000------------- MD-11 - 320-375
MD-82 - $0.7 - 2.2M, $25-48,000------------- MD-82 - 35-65
CRJ200 – $1.8 - 6.5M, $35-85,000 ------------ CRJ200 - 60-120
CRJ700 – $10.5 – 22.5M, $105-225,000------------ CRJ700 - 150-220
CRJ900 - $13.0 – 25.0M, $135-250,000------------ CRJ900 - 195-250
Q400 – $10.0 – 19.5M, $120-220,000------------ Q400 - 130-190
ERJ145 – $4.0 – 8.9M, $45-105,000------------ ERJ145 - 85-140
EMB170 – $14.4 – 26.2M, $140-240,000------------- E170 - 165-230
EMB190 – $20.7 – 32.6M, $195-285,000------------- E190 - 225-255
ATR-72 – $6.8 – 18.1M, $85-180,000------------- ATR-72 - 80-175

Sorry about the ----------------- dashes. Its a formatting issue.
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 3:45 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
Airbus admitted that mid last decade they were a tad sharper on A32X pricing than they might have wanted to be. I wonder if the stronger prices for latest editions is a result of stronger new prices..

Could be. We're also starting to enter another "order bubble" and that raises values and lease rates.

There is also the supply and demand angle - Airbus delivers more A320s per annum than Boeing does 737s.

JL also often guaranteed the resale value of Airbus planes to land deals with new customers (or sell new models), so once those resale guarantees ended (as Airbus took back or placed airframes with new customers), there might have been a bigger impact on the value.



Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
The newest models I guess.

I expect that plays a role. I also think that the 777-300ER and A380-800 are untouchable in their markets and are very popular with their operators.

[Edited 2012-11-11 07:51:51]
 
Viscount724
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:16 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
Quoting cuban8 (Reply 27):
With all these A340-500/600 on the ground, I would not be surprised if you could get a good bargain on them wether it's leasing or buying. Can anyone find the number's and possibly compare them to what it was a couple of years ago?


(Average Monthly Rents in Thousands of US Dollars)

Don't think your numbers are in thousands. I interpret that to mean that you have to add 3 zeros which would make them rather high.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 39):
Don't think your numbers are in thousands. I interpret that to mean that you have to add 3 zeros which would make them rather high.

Yeah, ignore that bit.   
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:48 pm

It just occured to me the latest build A343s are worth more than the newest 744!    That had to happen, I just didn't realize the point had already been here. Actually, they lease for more than the A346 too.    This implies the last A343s will still be flying after the A345s and A346s are parted. (But only the final builds.)

Quoting mffoda (Reply 37):
I thought it would be useful to see them together.

Thank you.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
I also think that the 777-300ER and A380-800 are untouchable in their markets and are very popular with their operators.

If 'untouchable' means lowest CASM for a given cost per flight, I agree.   However the A330 has done well too, just not as spectacular. I wonder how much of that is the high production rate (which brings down the cost of new examples which depresses all lease rates).

It looks like a 20% hit in lease rates is due to the plummet in interest rates. So in some ways, the 77W has done *extreamly* well and effectively gained demand. Using that as a 'normalization,' the 777-200ER has done well also (as has the already mentioned late model A343s).

However, most of the 'short versions' of aircraft have done very poorly. (e.g., A319)

And as I read the chart, the 733 is on its final legs, imitating the MD-80 lease rates over the last 7 years. In other words, the type will still be around in 2020, but I fully expect to see a large number parted. Considering that Boeing is gearing up to make 42 737s per month by 2014, it would only take 27 months production to replace the type (and some will be replaced by Airbus and Bombardier and I'm aware production is also for growth and 752 retirement). Thus, the incentive to perform a D-check on a non-wingleted 733 is not there. The newest 733s (those most likely to be wingletted) will be the survivors.

Boeing 737 production rate link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...15/us-boeing-idUSTRE75E3WL20110615

Lightsaber
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Stitch
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:06 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
However the A330 has done well too, just not as spectacular. I wonder how much of that is the high production rate (which brings down the cost of new examples which depresses all lease rates).

The high supply has hurt A330 rates, though the later-build high-TOW frames are holding their own.
 
something
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:37 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 32):
Concur. What surprises me is how close the rates are on the A345/A346. I would have expected a divergence over time.

As there is virtually no market for second hand frames of either aircraft, both aircraft are effectively worth their scrap value. The re-useable parts of the A345 and A346 are more or less the same. With less of each model active, less spare parts will be marketable so expect the value for both of these birds to decrease exponentionally. You really want to be the first airline to alleviate yourself of these planes.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
This implies the last A343s will still be flying after the A345s and A346s are parted. (But only the final builds.)

In theory yes, in reality not necessarily. A343 can too easily be replaced by airplanes that produce a better bottom line as of today. Fuel is too expensive, acquisition costs too low to keep those A343 around for a purpose other than maintaining fleet size until replacements arrive. So aside from some exotic third world airlines, I doubt there'll be A343s left after 2018.

The A346s will however remain active for some time to come. Neither LH, VS or IB have 777 fleets they could replace those A346s with and until the A350s come online, there is no replacement for them. They aren't as bad as their reputation would have you believe either. They are cheaper to operate than 747-400s which makes me want to believe that A340-600s should fly until 2020-2025.

A second hand market for them will never develop as there'll be too many used 77W by then.
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
United727
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:49 pm

Might you cite a current value/lease for the 732 and the 722? Thanks!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting something (Reply 43):
I doubt there'll be A343s left after 2018.

We'll have to disagree on this. The A343 (newest builds) is doing too well vs. the 77E to disapear that quickly. I'll agree they will be retired early.

BTW, I'm amused, for on most threads I'm talking 'economy of scale' of the 787 and A350 pushing types out of service. However, while by 2018 we'll be well past the tipping point, there won't be enough of the new types to completely eliminate the A343 by 2018.

Quoting something (Reply 43):
The A346s will however remain active for some time to come.

We had a thread not to long ago on VS looking to replace these types, here is an article link:

The airline is introducing Airbus A330-300s and - from summer 2014 - Boeing 787-9s to replace some of its A340s and is examining potential replacements for the rest of its larger widebodies.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...0-and-a340-600-replacement-377897/

These are not dueling pistols where everything needs to be exact. If airlines will make more down-gauging, they will.

Quoting something (Reply 43):
They are cheaper to operate than 747-400s which makes me want to believe that A340-600s should fly until 2020-2025.

Their lease rates are below 744s. That tells me they will leave the fleet earlier. However my above link has VS receiving 744 and A346 replacements until 2020. So VS will be done with the type at the earlier part of your time frame. Everyone else had better get out of the type before LH replaces theirs, for when that happens the part value will drop. I sincerely doubt LH will keep theirs until 2025. The 787-10 or A350-1000 is a fine replacement for the A346, so I expect an LH order within 2 years to replace the A346s.

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Stitch
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:36 pm

Quoting something (Reply 43):
(The A340-600) are cheaper to operate than 747-400s which makes me want to believe that A340-600s should fly until 2020-2025.

Evidently it depends on the airline and mission. A VS staffer has noted the 747-400 works out better than the A340-600 unless they can fill the hold of the A340, so I could see VS replacing the A340-600s before the 747-400s.
 
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
We'll have to disagree on this. The A343 (newest builds) is doing too well vs. the 77E to disapear that quickly. I'll agree they will be retired early.

But what airline will still have A343s by then in noteworthy numbers? There may be some left at airlines like Aerolineas Argentinas, or Iran Air. But I doubt LH, SAS, VS, AF, LX, IB will retain theirs. This will of course largely depend on the availability of replacement metal or plastic, but at the same time we need to realize that ''traditional'' travel patterns are currently undergoing a paradigm shift and that oil is not going to become cheaper. There are markets that will outgrow the A343s (like FRA-GIG), there are markets where capacity on other airlines or airports (EK!) will render an A343 flight unprofitable (MUC-SIN) and the rising cost of fuel will simply give other airlines a huge operational advantage.

If you add up all the routes that are currently served by A343s, then substract those that could be done on A333s, A332s where market size allows, the routes that will be served by 787s or even A350s and those that will be discontinued for the reasons outlined above, you are left with a very small number of route pairs. A number that I believe will be too little to justify keeping a subfleet of A343s around, especially when most of the fleet will approach criticial maintenance overhauls.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
Quoting something (Reply 43):
The A346s will however remain active for some time to come.

We had a thread not to long ago on VS looking to replace these types, here is an article link:

I had LH, IB and SA in mind. It wouldn't make sense for IB to introduce the 77W now, if they can have more efficient A350s that are cheaper to re-train personnel on as well a few years later. If Airbus adheres to their proposed schedule, that is. The exact same can be said for South African.
And LH is in a similar situation as well. Their A380 fleet is almost complete for now and allows for some 744s to be retired and for some expansion. The 748s could be used as A346 replacement, but they would have to excersize all of their 20 options for that. Mind you, 2020 is only 7 years away and LH has a mere 3 748s by now. 37 frames over 7 years would mean roughly 5 748s for LH per year from next year on. Such plans don't exist, they seem unlikely to emerge on short notice and LH has indicated in the past that they're interested in the 787-1.

I see the 744s at LH gone before the A346s and for that, a similar time frame (2025?) has previously been mentioned.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
Their lease rates are below 744s

They also burn less fuel. I see only three possible scenarios for LH.

1. LH sells their A346s now and leases them back on short term leases. The lease rates would initially be higher than the financing of the aircraft, but with decreasing aircraft value the lease rates would go down and the lessor would carry the depreciation, not LH. -> I doubt any leasing company in the world would be stupid enough to do this though.

2. LH sells their A346s now and replaces them with something else. -> There's no replacement metal available at an instant.

3. LH sticks it out with their A346s. -> Not the ideal solution but in my opinion, the only feasible option.
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting something (Reply 47):
But what airline will still have A343s by then in noteworthy numbers?

I doubt any one or two airlines, but a large number of airlines flying a small number each. Due to the much higher cost per flight, I do not see those same airlines picking up the A346. I agree the A332 will eventually eat away at the A343. I just see the last examples surviving longer than the A346s and certainly the A345s (none of which will be used on their design mission from 2014 on).

Quoting something (Reply 47):
2. LH sells their A346s now and replaces them with something else. -> There's no replacement metal available at an instant.

748Is.   There is enough available before 2025 I do not need to list them all. But in general LH will upgauge. I see the 744s going to either the A388 or 748I and the A346 mostly going to the 748I, but some to either the A350, 787, or even A330. I never said 'in an instant.' But there are enough years. If LH wanted 748Is in 2014, they could have their heart's content. If LH wants 787s in 2015 (maybe even 2014), Boeing would grow the production for them. A350s? Ok, a longer wait, but not forever.

I just do not see the type flying into 2020 in any numbers. Not with IB, not with VS, and not even with LH.

Quoting something (Reply 47):
I see the 744s at LH gone before the A346s and for that,

I see the opposite with the newer 744s outlasting the A346s. There are very few routes where the added cargo of the A346 pays off where the added passengers of the 744 wouldn't.

But you are right in that the A332 (and by implication 788/789) won't start whitling away at the A340 fleet. I believe it will take 400 to 500 in service to have the impact you were describing (of the 787/A350). That is by 2017. Any airline flying A346s in 2017 will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage (e.g., versus LAN to South America).

That doesn't even bring up the about 80 777s built each year.

Quoting something (Reply 47):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
Their lease rates are below 744s

They also burn less fuel.

Only enough fuel less per flight to save 4% or so in the per flight cost. The reality is the A346 was optimized for high cargo yield with low fuel prices. We have neither in the current economic environment.


Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
something
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RE: Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing

Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:51 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
I doubt any one or two airlines, but a large number of airlines flying a small number each.

I don't have a list of all A343s operators, but I can't even think of a large number of airlines flying the type of today. Air Asia will dump theirs, China Eastern already has or is about to, Cathay will do the same, AF can just replace them with 777s, Virgin has repeatedly indicated their intent to get rid of theirs, SAS may go bankrupt for all we know, LH doesn't even have a lot of A343s routes left today that require the extra range over the A333, IB should have enough A330s and A350s before 2018, TPs are all fairly old, LAN has 787s coming, Air Tahiti Nui is probably not going to survive for much longer, Air Madagascar and Air Mauritius will go A330 along with Sri Lankan and Air Namibia (both have already announced their plans), SA is using A332s to replace theirs, TK wants to have theirs sold by 2017. That leaves Aerolineas, Iran Air, Surinam and maybe 2-3 other airlines. Those may ultimately outlive the bigger A340 versions, but in just very small numbers.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
I just do not see the type flying into 2020 in any numbers. Not with IB, not with VS, and not even with LH.

With VS, no. With IB, that'll depend on how quickly they can get A350s, with LH.. I am inclined to believe so. They have traditionally always kept airplanes around for way too long. They still fly those Avros at Swiss to wait for the C Series. They could have long replaced them with E Jets. It just doesn't strike me as ''typically LH'' to rush the phasing out of the A346s.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
I see the opposite with the newer 744s outlasting the A346s. There are very few routes where the added cargo of the A346 pays off where the added passengers of the 744 wouldn't.

At this point MUC is an all Airbus airport for LH's widebodies. They have their crew base there and what not. I just can't see LH moving their 744s to MUC for those last few years. In fact, I don't think they will bring Boeing widebodies to MUC at all.

On another note. Germany is an export nation with a shrinking population. Based on those tendencies, one could argue the A346 is just what Germany needs (tongue in cheek remark).

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
Any airline flying A346s in 2017 will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage (e.g., versus LAN to South America).

But every 744 operator of today finds themselves at an operational disadvantage vis-a-vis A380 operators. The lower cost of ownership for an A346 will partially offset the efficiency shotcomings. The disadvantage is there and IB and LH will both be very unhappy about it, but thinking long term they will have to wait for the A350/787-1 to replace those birds. And that will unfortunately keep those A346s with their owners for more than just 5-6 years.

[Edited 2012-11-11 13:52:22]
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