kl911
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Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:06 pm

Some interesting points from this article:

* Michael O’Leary said he was in talks with Boeing about the possibility of a cut-price deal on current generation 737

* order could be for up to 300 planes for growth and replacement

* At September 30, the airline had gross cash of €3.9bn.

* Ryanair reported revenue of €3.1bn for the six months to September 30, up 15 per cent

* Ryanair raised its net profit guidance for 2012-13 to between €490m and €520m, from €400m to €440m

Link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f0d69f2-2...cb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2BNsXBknm
 
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Stitch
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:06 pm

He wants the planes between 2015 and 2021 so that probably rules out the MAX, at least until the later tranches.

COMAC and IRKUT would probably make him a deal, but China might have worries about getting the C919 certified in the EU.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:40 pm

To me, the lack of the MAX means that this might be their last 737 order, and when the MAX comes online, FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).

Nothing more, nothing less.
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Aesma
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:15 am

I'm guessing they're expecting a very low price so ruled out the MAX for that reason alone. Not sure Boeing really wants to give them such a deal again, though.
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mffoda
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:21 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 2):
To me, the lack of the MAX means that this might be their last 737 order, and when the MAX comes online, FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).

Nothing more, nothing less.

Maybe I don't understand your meaning...

But, If you think 737 orders (NG or MAX) are over?? You might want to avoid the internet in the next few months as hundreds 737's are orders are finalized, and new orders are confirmed... Not counting Ryanair...  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:21 am

I would not be surprised if ROL's actual negotiations with Boeing include a conversion option to the MAX for the later delivery tranches.

After all, why show your hand to your competition years in advance?
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:43 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 4):
Maybe I don't understand your meaning...

I'm referring to the possibility that this will be FR's last 737 order before the C919 is ready for export. Only then will FR switch to the C919.

Regardless of what FR does, there will still be plenty of other customers knocking on Boeing's door for 737s, both NG and MAX.
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
mffoda
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:48 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 6):
Regardless of what FR does, there will still be plenty of other customers knocking on Boeing's door for 737s, both NG and MAX.

OK.. Got-ya  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:15 am

I see the C919 as being too much of a maintenance and dispatch reliability risk to have FR buy them - especially as the backbone of their fleet.

Honestly, I could see dispatch reliability as a reason for not looking at the MAX (or, by extension, the neo). They run a tight ship schedule-wise and they know the 737NG like the back of their hand. It's certainly the lowest-risk option, whereas the C919 would be the highest risk.
 
morrisond
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:35 am

I think Boeing has said they will build NG as long as people want them even after the start of MAX.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:17 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 2):
FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).

FR is about the last carrier on earth that will purchase the C919.

More than almost any other airline, FR's business model rests on extremely high dispatch reliability, extremely high operating efficiency, and extremely high safety. The C919 is none of these things.

Whatever COMAC does after the C919 is far more likely to make inroads with FR. Even COMAC admits that the C919 isn't competitive with the 737/A320, isn't designed to be, and never will be. The C919 is a stepping stone. FR's not going to step on it.

Tom.
 
boilerla
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:56 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 10):

More than almost any other airline, FR's business model rests on extremely high dispatch reliability, extremely high operating efficiency, and extremely high safety. The C919 is none of these things.

Not to mention that FR isn't going to replace a fleet of 300 737s overnight. In order to execute the business plan you indicate (high operating efficiency & dispatch reliability), you need things like crew bases and spare parts. Even if FR ordered 300 C919s, they would at best have a dozen or so a year. So their entire business plan goes to hell whenever a plane needs a spare part that has to be flown in from the nearest base that has 919 spare parts, and that plane sits on the ground for hours at a time.

They're locked in (to the 737) for the long haul now.
 
Ronaldo747
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:04 am

The interest in the Comac 919 was never serious. I also highly doubt that Ryanair even talked with Comac.
 
parapente
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:53 am

The man wants a 'deal' pure and simple.Indeed he indicated a while back that 'price' had been sorted with Boeing. One assumes that there is a 'gap' between the MAX and the existing aircraft which both parties can exploit happily.

Who knows since both Boeing and their Blended winglet partners are both offering a variant of "Feathers" perhaps he could have these and save a little fuel. The present aircraft has got the brand new interior too.

I think there is a deal there for both parties and good luck to them both.Other aircraft? Nope he follows the South West model to the 'n'th' degree. It will be 737's no question about that.
 
flybyguy
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:56 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 3):
I'm guessing they're expecting a very low price so ruled out the MAX for that reason alone. Not sure Boeing really wants to give them such a deal again, though.

  

FR's operation may not need greater fuel efficiency if they can get another significant discount on new build aircraft. The resale values for used FR aircraft will be driven lower with the introduction of the MAX. FR makes money selling seats and by selling used aircraft before maintenance becomes expensive. If they get their next tranche of 737NGs, they probably need to get a significant discount from Boeing to make that scheme work. Not sure if Boeing will bite this time. FR will be forced to purchase new design aircraft when Boeing ends production of the NG. It remains to be seen if at that point Boeing will have price command over FR.

As a side note, I'm almost certain FR does not want to throw all its eggs on unproven COMAC aircraft. COMAC has been plagued with delays only to introduce aircraft inferior to Boeing, Bombardier and Airbus offerings. I foresee that in the near term, COMAC will be producing aircraft based upon reverse engineering of older Airbus, McDonnell Douglas and Embraer aircraft built in China. COMAC will be a force to be reckoned with, but not anytime this decade.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
 
kl911
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:47 am

Quoting parapente (Reply 13):
I think there is a deal there for both parties and good luck to them both.Other aircraft? Nope he follows the South West model to the 'n'th' degree. It will be 737's no question about that.

Unless you do it the Easyjet way and replace all 737's with A319 or A320's . And doing that one base at a time will allow migration of crewbase and spare parts too. And A320 spare parts can be found anywhere ofcourse.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:11 pm

Quoting boilerla (Reply 11):
They're locked in (to the 737) for the long haul now.

Like all the other airlines that purchased A320s after being 'life long' 737 customers?   

If FR were able to make more money by switching away from the 737NG, they'll do it. They'll have to at some point in the future, the NG will eventually stop being built.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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N766UA
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:19 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 10):
FR is about the last carrier on earth that will purchase the C919.

I'd think the list for "last carrier on earth" would be pretty long. I mean, honestly, why would anyone buy an unproven Chinese jet (a country with practically zero track record in aviation) when Boeing, Embraer, Airbus, and Canadair offer similar jets?

I think you'd sooner see United buying Sukhois.
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wingman
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:49 pm

They've been building and reverse engineering MDs and 320s for years now. So they start with the 919 and apply ever so gentle tactics on domestic carriers to buy them by the hundreds. Then they advance to Asian and African carriers in markets where they exert significant economic influence and apply those same tactics. Next thing you know they're selling "Airbus" kit at half the price and by 2030 they have 30%-50% of the narrowbody market.

All of this assumes the first tranche of 919s aren't falling out of the sky weekly. If they build a safe plane and iron out the MX quality over the first 5-10 years, then I think they will be on par or will have surpassed Boeing and/or Airbus in this segment in the next 20 years. These people build dams, skyscrapers, iPads, and what look to be pretty reliable human-capable spacecraft. I doubt passenger jets will faze them much if they really want to be in the space that badly.
 
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ODwyerPW
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:09 am

It's a win/win to fill those NG production slots between 2017-2019 while MAX is scaling up.
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sweair
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RE: Ryanair In Talks With Boeing Again - No MAX

Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:35 pm

I am sure Airbus would love to have MoL as a customer.. And MoL would just love to be in the end of that giant backlog..

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