I think there are some differences and similarities between DJ
's initial growth or success was based around the failure of Ansett and as such they had one of the moments in time where opportunity presented itself. I can't see such an opportunity presenting itself in the US.
If we look at DJ
after this time and specifically the investment made in the airline, than I'd suggest its performance is similar to that of VX
. The major investors in the company Patrick’s (now owned by Toll) made a big fuss about exiting the airline share register and the Mum and Dad investors who purchased shares at the public float for $1.75/share have lost probably 80% of their money.
If you have a look at the current share register it is filled with the likes of ANZ, SIA
& Ethiad. I'd suggest in all these instances the players are there more because of the strategic value than investment value of the stock.
To be candid, for these reasons I have never been a fan of DJ
. I believe the listing of the company on the Australian Securities Exchange simply conned many Mums and Dads, who had never invested in shares before out of their money. I remember at the time of the float the head of Patrick’s (a cornerstone shareholder) openly disagreeing with the float with suggestions it was not appropriate and much of the investment community stating the stock at the suggested listing price did not meet the basic fundamentals for sound investment opportunity.
On the flip side I think it would be fair to assume DJ
has been a very lucrative animal for a select few investors. We can probably find the basis of why VX
exists in the history of DJ
, but with the exception being VX
hasn’t lived up to DJ
’s very high expectations.
All in all, if VX
fails I don’t believe it would be a bad thing. It might be an opportunity for people to properly analyze these airlines and realize the face of them (pretty girls, superior product? and supposed value for money) are simply mirages to disguise the ploys of big players making big money.