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Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:39 pm

The topic of a forthcoming pilot shortage in the US comes up again - this time in the WSJ:

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seabosdca
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:41 pm

 
VS11
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:41 pm

Here is the link:

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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:42 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 1):
Try this link.

Thank you! Tried several times..not sure what was going on.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:44 pm

WSJ stories can't be directly linked because they will end up behind the paywall. To link to a WSJ story you need to find a Google referrer link for it.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:46 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 4):
WSJ stories can't be directly linked because they will end up behind the paywall. To link to a WSJ story you need to find a Google referrer link for it.

Got it. Thanks again!
 
iowaman
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:04 am

Well, when you barely get paid pay enough to get by in a large city, people aren't going to be as inclined to become a pilot especially with the stricter requirements and higher costs than ever, simple as that. If they are serious about needing more pilots, an airline sponsorship and/or higher starting pay will solve the problem.

[Edited 2012-11-12 16:05:46]
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:36 am

Pretty interesting insight. They mentioned Kent Lovelace from the University of North Dakota and as a student I can give a little bit more to what he's saying. We have a UAS program up here and that seems to be where a lot of the students are headed. I've heard more about the need for pilots in that field than in commercial aviation. Not to mention the starting pay is a lot better. It should be interesting to see if any of the financial support comes to happen. I know a lot of kids up here who pay for their flight fees themselves as many people do, but can't get federal loans or get very little because of their parent's financial situation. I think if low interest government loans are offerred that could help a lot of kids who were scared away due to money. I know it would help me a ton. The interest rates on private loans are terrible.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:42 am

Republic has been offering a hiring bonus for a while and now we're planning to offer $5000 here at Eagle as well, though many are upset because it circumvents our contract and we just passed a new concessionary contract, but that's for another discussion.  
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:46 am

I would like to make emphasys on this quote from the article:

"Tim Brady, dean of the school's Florida college of aviation, warned that expanding the pipeline of pilots "is not a future problem; it is upon us now." Some proponents want to see low-interest loans or various other federal subsidies go to fledgling aviators at flight schools or academic institutions. Others advocate scholarships or loan guarantees provided by prospective employers. "We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer. Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."

Actually... there is no incentive from any US airline to promote the pilot career, not even if they have the pilots doing other jobs like ACS or anything else (like it happens to me). All my studies and flying hours i have accomplished it because of personal efforts, and there isnt any light at the end that would tell me that the airline is willing to recruit me soon. But at the pace the industry has... i hope that will change sooner than later...
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:53 am

It might actually happen due to what a low payIng low security job it has become. That being said I was hearing about a pilot shortage 8 years ago and besides for a brief hiring at the regionals a few years ago I have yet to see it. It is nice to see the legacies hiring a bit more again though. Who knows. But as long as training cost are high and starting pay is low I can see why a pilot shortage might happen.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:08 am

There is a phrase in spanish that says: "Cuando el rio suena, es porque piedras trae". It means that if you hear the river from far away... it will definitively bring rocks.

I know the pilot shortage has been a topic of discussion for quite some time... but it will eventually come.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"Tim Brady, dean of the school's Florida college of aviation, warned that expanding the pipeline of pilots "is not a future problem; it is upon us now."

Now we can see... 1) The drain at the top with the retiring of pilots (which is quite a lot). 2) Bringing the requirements up will make life harder for younger pilots and for airlines to get them onboard to replace the older pilots. 3) The low salaries currently offered which make people to think it twice to become a career pilot.

These big issues will lead eventually to:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer.

and of course:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:14 am

I'm beginning to regret being a FLA Japanese language student at my university instead of to flight school....but then again what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now? It says there is a shortage, but for what airlines/services/aircraft?
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:20 am

This news didn't really surprise me. I've been expecting this sort of thing to develop eventually. People used to flying where they want when they want should start considering alternatives.

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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:28 am

They've got me sold. I still hope they're hiring a lot of pilots in 2021... I'll be ready about then. Hope that's not too late  
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:35 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now? It says there is a shortage, but for what airlines/services/aircraft?

And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.

Where this is going to bite hardest is at the bottom of the pile. It is the regionals who are going to suffer recruitment problems as more and more people are drawn up to the majors, yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.

To answer your question, PHX787, you would be flying ERJ and CRJs for ExpressJet or Chautauqua. Sounds attractive, right?
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:39 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):

I'm beginning to regret being a FLA Japanese language student at my university instead of to flight school....but then again what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now?

The major airlines will be able to pull from the thousands of well qualified regional pilots. The regional airlines will probably be the only ones who have any trouble finding qualified applicants (especially with the new experience requirements).
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:49 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.



Exactly (and that's almost a verbatim line from the new version of my book).

The idea that airlines face an "acute shortage of pilots" is both true and untrue.

Will there be a "pilot shortage"? That depends very much on which sector of the airline industry you're talking about.

The major carriers will ALWAYS have a surplus of highly qualified candidates to choose from, coming from the regionals and the military.

At the moment there are something like 2,000 pilots still furloughed from the US majors, some of whom have been laid off for ten years or more. A good friend of mine, who had worked for TWA and American, recently took a job flying in Dubai because decent US flying jobs are so scarce.

Shortage?

At the regionals it's a slightly different story. It much depends on how the FAA and carriers interpret the new hiring standards rules. There are still going to be a thousand applications for every available job.

[Edited 2012-11-12 18:11:44]
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:56 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 14):
They've got me sold. I still hope they're hiring a lot of pilots in 2021... I'll be ready about then. Hope that's not too late

Me too. I almost signed up with ATP last year as they were making the same argument i.e. the regionals will feel the crunch and they (ATP) have working relationships with them. I didn't do it because I realized what a dramatic change that would be and I am in my mid-30s. Another thing that sort of annoyed me is that there are no tax breaks if you want to fund your pilot education - i.e. deductions on a loan interest, and you can't take a student loan, unless it is a college degree (and I already have 2 graduate degrees). But maybe things will change now - write to your Congressman or Congresswoman  
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:17 am

How do you think the new FAA regulations requiring 1500 hours will affect things? Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:24 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
To answer your question, PHX787, you would be flying ERJ and CRJs for ExpressJet or Chautauqua. Sounds attractive, right?
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
Where this is going to bite hardest is at the bottom of the pile. It is the regionals who are going to suffer recruitment problems as more and more people are drawn up to the majors, yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.
Quoting doug_Or (Reply 16):
The major airlines will be able to pull from the thousands of well qualified regional pilots. The regional airlines will probably be the only ones who have any trouble finding qualified applicants (especially with the new experience requirements).

Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?  

lets say I finish university, go to flight school, get my commercial license, you know, get as qualified as possible....I end up with an RJ airline, get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet, or get put under, bought out, or something...

It looks like an endless circle.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:30 am

Not a pilot, myself, but my son-in-law is......he's flown commercial as well as corporate in any number of types. I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates. My son-in-law has more experience, flying, available than many who have a 4 year degree (in art history, for example), but they don't look at that experience level.



Another thing that, IMO, has changed the available pool for the majors is the fact that the military pilots that used to be available are now reservists or national guard. Much of the military flying done now is by the reserve and guard and those pilots are airline pilots during the week, anyway.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:38 am

There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement. There are thousands of unemployed pilots out there with thousands of hours. All the regionals have to do is pay decent wages. They've had 5 years to plan for age 65, 3 years for 1500 hours, and have done nothing but kick the can down the street.

Heck, Sully speaks for me:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134972n
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:57 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?

lets say I finish university, go to flight school, get my commercial license, you know, get as qualified as possible....I end up with an RJ airline, get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet, or get put under, bought out, or something...

It looks like an endless circle.

Just to clarify, with the new experience requirements, when you graduate with two or three hundred hours you'll probably need to work for a couple of years before you meet the minimum FAA requirements for a part 121 airline.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:04 am

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 23):
Just to clarify, with the new experience requirements, when you graduate with two or three hundred hours you'll probably need to work for a couple of years before you meet the minimum FAA requirements for a part 121 airline.

Just like many of us have done for many years. Took me almost 2000 hours total time before I could get a call from a regional.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:57 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?

I was being somewhat sarcastic, but you get the point... as with right now, new entrants would almost certainly be at the regionals. Whether that be CRJ200s, Q400s or EMB-170s, well I guess time will tell.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet

I actually think that's the one positive that could come out of this: you are much less likely to get furloughed. As the majors draw out the experienced regional pilots, the junior ones will probably rise up the seniority list quite quickly.

Let's hypothetically say that, right now, you join SkyWest on the EMB-120 seat. Those will probably be gone within 3 years. By then, however, enough current CRJ pilots could have been called to mainline that you could hold a line on the CRJ fleet, and even if OO draw down CRJ200 capacity they would likely backfill it will 700/900 capacity keeping you in a job.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:16 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 25):
By then, however, enough current CRJ pilots could have been called to mainline

That's assuming, of course, that the system will have changed enough by then, so that the majors will actually draw from their own regionals. Not sure if they do, now, or not.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:20 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 26):

That's assuming, of course, that the system will have changed enough by then, so that the majors will actually draw from their own regionals. Not sure if they do, now, or not.

Over 60% of DL (and NW) pilots hired from 2007-2010 (the last time DL hired) were from the regionals.

The rest were military with a very small handful of corporate.

[Edited 2012-11-12 22:21:14]
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:27 am

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 27):
Over 60% of DL (and NW) pilots hired from 2007-2010 (the last time DL hired) were from the regionals.

The rest were military with a very small handful of corporate.

Ok....it's already changed then. Back when I was still working at SLC and my son-in-law was still flying for Skywest, DL seemed like they had an unwritten rule that they wouldn't hire anyone, flying with Skywest.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:44 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 28):
DL seemed like they had an unwritten rule that they wouldn't hire anyone, flying with Skywest.

Back then DL could draw upon Comair and ASA (anyone I've forgotten?) which were wholly owned subsidiaries. Similarly I think that CO drew from ExpressJet prior to the spin-off. Now, however, Eagle is the only in-house regional left, and its days as part of AMR are numbered. Therefore the majors are going to need to hire from other sources.


Edit: I'd completely forgotten about US, and that PSA and Piedmont are wholly owned. Does anyone know if US hires from those carriers, or whether PSA and Piedmont pilots have to compete on the open market for jobs at mainline?

[Edited 2012-11-12 22:46:42]
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:10 am

It is a market on a global economy. There will never be a situation where the US airlines are short of pilots. If the majors are short of pilots, they get plenty of applicants from people who currently work for the regional airlines. If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas. If the economy of moving to America and being pilot gets good enough, pilots from Europe and elsewhere could easily make the switch. If the economics of being a pilot are good enough, students will flock to do it. And pilot education is relatively short, compared to the length of education needed for many other fields.

In other words, the more you pay, the more people you will get. It is conceivable that there will be a "pilot shortage" that causes some companies to not be able to hire pilots on benefits that do not make it possible to live in any big city or near the base. So be it.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:29 am

I should clarify, my 60% from the regionals should also include other "major" carriers such as AirTran, JetBlue, and various others (including freight operations). DL did not discriminate on pulling from any and all carriers. NW did have a rule of not hiring from its regionals (their logic was it caused them to have to pay to train 2 pilots- dumb), but that policy died with the merger thankfully.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:50 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):
If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas. If the economy of moving to America and being pilot gets good enough, pilots from Europe and elsewhere could easily make the switch. If the economics of being a pilot are good enough, students will flock to do it. And pilot education is relatively short, compared to the length of education needed for many other fields.

What makes you think the "pilot shortage" will be felt only in the US? There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract. Also, what makes you think US airlines will be as competitive as Middle East airlines that are paying much more than US airlines will ever pay and are stealing pilots from all over the world as well, to think that pilots will just go to the US because: "its the US"...

Let me tell you... there are many airlines in Latin America (and I know that in Asia as well) that are hiring pilots with lower requirements and in some cases not putting any restrictions regarding nationalities. The US airline industry has always thought they had control of everything, including the pilot industry... but let me tell you it isnt me who is talking about it.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer. Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 32):
What makes you think the "pilot shortage" will be felt only in the US? There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract. Also, what makes you think US airlines will be as competitive as Middle East airlines that are paying much more than US airlines will ever pay and are stealing pilots from all over the world as well, to think that pilots will just go to the US because: "its the US"...

Let me tell you... there are many airlines in Latin America (and I know that in Asia as well) that are hiring pilots with lower requirements and in some cases not putting any restrictions regarding nationalities. The US airline industry has always thought they had control of everything, including the pilot industry... but let me tell you it isnt me who is talking about it.

Easy, nobody ever said it is only the US, but the article is from a US news source discussion the situation in the states, and subsequently the discussion is too. I don't know where you're getting the idea that the US airline industry thinks they're the ones that "have control of everything" but we certainly don't. I doubt you'll find many in the US airline industry who feel that way as well.

With regard to the middle east companies, many of them pay very well but the work rules can be absolutely atrocious. Worse than the worst of the regional carriers here in the states. There is more to attracting pilots than the pay scales.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:34 pm

I have no way to know if there's any substance to it, but I have heard that there is a push to again up the retirement age, this time to 67 or 68. The group pushing it? The RAA - Regional Airline Association. They know their ranks will be decimated in a few years.

There's a perfect storm brewing. Huge retirements at major/legacy carriers. ATP requirements. New duty and rest regulations. I don't know which one will be more challenging but I think the ATP requirement is being underestimated. Finding hundreds or even thousands of ATP-rated pilots to work at a regional airline for peanuts as F/Os is going to be difficult. Why would someone who has that level of experience grovel for a job flying for $25/hour or less to start with? And after a few years top out at some carriers flying EMB-175/190 for $36/hour?

There will be a problem in this industry. It's going to get very interesting in the next 36 months.

Also, there really aren't thousands of pilots out there on the street with thousands of hours. The furlough numbers published on sites like APC dot com are do not tell the whole story. Nr. 1, those numbers make no mention of how many have gone on to other airlines or other careers, never to return. Nr. 2, few, if any, of those pilots will be standing in line to fly at regionals. They could do that already if they wanted. Airlines like JetBlue, Southwest, AirTran, VX, etc. have swallowed up large numbers of those furloughees from AA and United and they won't be going back. And if they do it will just open up a slot at those carriers. People said US Airways wouldn't hire for decades as recently as 5 years ago. Guess who's hiring? Most of these carriers have to call 3 or 4 pilots to get one to return. The number of pilots on furlough from majors will be exceeded by the retirements at the same majors within 24 months.
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:17 pm

I'd like to see an analysis of how the up-gauging of RJs is going to effect pilot demand. Oh, those at the bottom whom no longer may use pilots with 250 to 1500 hours of experience will have issues. How many of those will pay more?

Also, the military is drawing down. The #1 issue I see is the pay of pilot jobs versus the other jobs those candidates are able to secure. I know more than a dozen commercial pilots who 'fly desks' rather than take a pay cut.

If this is a big enough hit, expect the 1500 hour rule to be changed to 1000 hours (or even a little less). In my opinion, the rule change was made to help ex-military pilots as the post-gulf wars pull down commences.

And the WSJ notes an 'out' The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities.

Now wouldn't that be a gift to the aviation universities... I suspect that change will happen.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 11):
I know the pilot shortage has been a topic of discussion for quite some time... but it will eventually come.

Why? If so, it will be temporary and then the flood of candidates will be hungry. We've heard about this shortage for so long it has become the boogey man. And for many good reasons, it won

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.

Or corporate. There is zero reason for a major, in particular the better paying ones, to give a hoot.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.

   But will the regionals be as hard hit as corporate?

Quoting aviateur (Reply 17):
The idea that airlines face an "acute shortage of pilots" is both true and untrue.

Will there be a "pilot shortage"? That depends very much on which sector of the airline industry you're talking about.

The major carriers will ALWAYS have a surplus of highly qualified candidates to choose from, coming from the regionals and the military.

At the moment there are something like 2,000 pilots still furloughed from the US majors, some of whom have been laid off for ten years or more. A good friend of mine, who had worked for TWA and American, recently took a job flying in Dubai because decent US flying jobs are so scarce.

That sums it up nicely. For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots. For low paying, there is a shortage. I'm not sure how many regionals will be hit. But I also suspect they won't have trouble manning up long term.

Quoting mayor (Reply 21):
I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates.

   DL will have their choice of candidates who dream of flying widebodies. It will be DL's regional partners who have to adapt.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):
There will never be a situation where the US airlines are short of pilots. If the majors are short of pilots, they get plenty of applicants from people who currently work for the regional airlines. If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas.

True, except that many oversees jobs pay enough to raise a family and the regionals will never be able to offer that to entry candidates. So they will be squeezed. However, the switch to ~76 seat RJs will help reduce their pilot demand.

Lightsaber

[Edited 2012-11-13 12:18:51]
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Flighty
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:03 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):
There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement

Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

I mean, for the moment yes we have enough pilots. But to have a future, there has to be a pipeline in. What is it?..

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 32):
There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract

Hopefully those new recruits would not try flying to the USA. They would not be eligible to enter our airspace with under 1,500 hours, or is that a misunderstanding on my part...
 
futureualpilot
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:18 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

Instruct, photo flying, pipeline flying, fly freight, fish spotting, ferry flying. I found a way to get a couple thousand hours before my first airline job, as have thousands of other current and former RJ pilots. It can be done before you're flying paying passengers in the back.
Life is better when you surf.
 
indiansbucs
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:40 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Hopefully those new recruits would not try flying to the USA. They would not be eligible to enter our airspace with under 1,500 hours, or is that a misunderstanding on my part...

My friend... it means carriers like Etihad for example, they hire people with no flying experience at all... to introduce them into a two year program in which they will learn to fly, build sufficient hours and convert them into their own pilots, and also they are going to be hold for some years by the contract they sign.

If airlines like Etihad have these kind of problem recruiting to do these kind of programs, even though they offer a lot of benefits and high salaries... a shortage is evident in the world industry. And it isnt just Etihad...
 
DashTrash
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:46 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):
There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement. There are thousands of unemployed pilots out there with thousands of hours. All the regionals have to do is pay decent wages. They've had 5 years to plan for age 65, 3 years for 1500 hours, and have done nothing but kick the can down the street.

Heck, Sully speaks for me:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?...4972n

Bingo. I haven't seen a cockpit since 2009. I'm sitting here with 5K +, and a couple of type ratings. I currently fly a desk for more than double the money I would make even as a fourth year regional FO. I will not bring my experience into a cockpit for less than what I feel is a fair wage. No regional offers that as far as I'm concerned.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 24):
Just like many of us have done for many years. Took me almost 2000 hours total time before I could get a call from a regional.

Already been addressed, but I had about 1500 TT, most of it multi before I got hired at a regional. I flew a lot of aerial photography, pipeline patrols, GPS / LIDAR mapping flights and cargo.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

Flight instructing will be the main way to go. Going forward someone coming into this profession will really have to want it. It was that way for a long time, then it became easy if you had the money or could get the money. I'm happy to see those days go away.
 
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zeke
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:52 pm

Quoting oswegobag (Reply 19):
How do you think the new FAA regulations requiring 1500 hours will affect things? Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?

That is something that is incorrectly understood by industry.

The law states the requirement is to hold an ATP.

Currently an ATP holder needs 1500 hours, however there is a current push by a number of larger schools to have academic qualifications to be used in lieu of flight time, some schools are proposing to the FAA that an ATP could be issued at 500 hours.

Other pilot training aspects which are changing include the MPL, where a person can hold a CPL with 70 hours of flight time.
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:13 am

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 34):
The furlough numbers published on sites like APC dot com are do not tell the whole story. Nr. 1, those numbers make no mention of how many have gone on to other airlines

Exactly, while you can say that there are X thousand pilots on furlough, those that wanted to remain in the industry are almost certainly with another carrier whether it be RAH, SkyWest, Spirit, Virgin or whoever. Therefore there is a shortage, since those "surplus" pilots aren't actually surplus.

Quoting oswegobag (Reply 19):
Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?

Almost definitely not. The Bill was passed almost unanimously through Congress, quite a remarkable feat right now!
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots. For low paying, there is a shortage. I'm not sure how many regionals will be hit.
Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):

In other words, the more you pay, the more people you will get.

Isn't this a good thing? Pilot unions are always worried about a wage spiral down to the lowest common denominator. This could be the floor due to supply constraints.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
bahadir
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:31 am

WSJ is very pro business paper, Roger Cohen is nothing but a patological liar (he was insisting that the Colgan FO was able to afford a hotel room for $35/night at EWR) .. The whole purpose of the article is to scare people so that management can get away with getting rid of this new rule or increase the retirement age to 67.

Pay the people that are doing this job a decent wage (but no Colgan people are facing entire contract being wiped out) and you will see people showing interest in the business again. Otherwise I would say that they are all reaping what they sow.
Earthbound misfit I
 
KELPkid
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:32 am

Training costs have skyrocketed in the last 10 years. Incomes have remained flat. The only ways to become a pilot: be a rich playboy, get a good paying job (very rare these days) and throw all your money into your training, or indebt yourself to infinity  

Been there, tried to do that, and decided to raise my family instead...although I've got 500 hours and have taken ground school for all ratings through ATP at a community college   While I was still single, I had a good paying job and could throw all my money into flying. But the rental rates for aircraft went nowhere but up and up...
Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
 
aviateur
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:40 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 21):
I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates.

No way. The idea that an airline like Delta (or any other major) will have a REMOTELY hard time recruiting qualified candidates, with thousands of airline hours AND a college degree, is simply absurd.

As I said above, this supposed "shortage" is something that will affect the REGIONAL sector only.

And the new rules, with the 1,500 hour requirement, etc., are merely restoring things back to the way they were 20 or so years ago. It wasn't all that long ago when the idea of grabbing a job with a regional airline ("commuters" we used to call them) with anything less than1,000 hours was almost unheard of. When I was hired by my first regional, in 1990, I had 1,500 hours and an FAA ATP certificate. Those were average to below-average qualifications among my 15 or so classmates. And that was to fly a 15-passenger Beech 99!


PS
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
aviateur
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:43 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 29):
Back then DL could draw upon Comair and ASA (anyone I've forgotten?) which were wholly owned subsidiaries. Similarly I think that CO drew from ExpressJet prior to the spin-off. Now, however, Eagle is the only in-house regional left, and its days as part of AMR are numbered. Therefore the majors are going to need to hire from other sources.

What in the world are you talking about? The regional sector accounts for more than 50 percent of all domestic flying in the United States. Are you suggesting there aren't enough highly experienced regional pilots for the majors to draw from? Are you KIDDING?

Some of the posts in this thread are truly baffling.


PS
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
aviateur
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:51 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

I'm sorry, but are you joking?

As I was saying in the post above, the 1,500 hour requirement, etc., is merely restoring things back to historical norms. When I was hired by a regional in 1990, the AVERAGE qualifications among new-hires included 1,500 hours and an ATP.

How do you get to that level? Flight instructing is one option. I had 1,100 hours of CFI hours in my logbook before I began applying at the regionals. I hadn't applied sooner because, back then, I knew I had no chance.

My god, the sense of entitlement that has developed among some would-be pilots, spoiled by the absurd hiring trends of the past 5-7 years or so, when guys were getting hired into the right seat of an RJ with as little as 300 total hours. There will be no more of that, and there SHOULDN'T be.


PS
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
RyanairGuru
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:57 am

Quoting aviateur (Reply 46):
The regional sector accounts for more than 50 percent of all domestic flying in the United States. Are you suggesting there aren't enough highly experienced regional pilots for the majors to draw from? Are you KIDDING?

That's not what I said at all. I said that AFAIK airlines previously recruited to mainline from their in-house regional, ExpressJet to CO, Comair to DL etc. Now that those airlines either don't exist or have been sold, then they are recruiting on the open market, accepting applicants from all airlines.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article

Wed Nov 14, 2012 2:04 am

If there is an up and coming pilot shortage, why does the pay suck for new pilots? This is just a spin to attract a flood of new candidates. Market forces always catch up, in this case, it is saying too many pilots coming out of schools.
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